Gold Weekly Review and Outlook | Driven by risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts, gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, poised for a breakout.
📈 Market Review and Current Trends
Spot gold stabilized and rebounded on Friday (October 3rd), breaking through the $3,850 mark and reaching an intraday high of $3,879, an increase of over 0.59%. Gold prices have rebounded significantly from their previous low of $3,838, maintaining a strong bullish trend overall. Two "deep V" reversals occurred during the week, demonstrating strong bargain-hunting buying.📊
🔍 Fundamental Drivers Analysis
1. 🛡️ Safe-haven demand continues to build
The US government shutdown enters its third day, and the political deadlock exacerbates economic uncertainty.
Geopolitical risks loom, and funds continue to flow into safe-haven assets.
2. 💰 Expectations of rate cuts rise again.
The September ISM Services PMI plummeted to 50.0, far below expectations.
The employment component has remained in contraction territory for four consecutive months, reinforcing the Fed's case for rate cuts.
The market is betting on another rate cut at the October FOMC meeting, and the probability continues to rise.
3. 📉 Data vacuum exacerbates volatility.
Delays in the release of the non-farm payroll report and CPI data due to the government shutdown.
The Fed's decision-making is shrouded in a "data fog," increasing uncertainty about its policy path.
📊 Technical Analysis from Multiple Dimensions
1. Key Position Analysis
🟢 Support Area: 3860-3865 (previous resistance turned support) → 3838 (Thursday's low) → 3820 (strong support).
🔴 Resistance Area: 3895-3900 (Historical High)
2. Indicator Signal Analysis
The 4-hour chart has stabilized above the 21-period SMA (3864), indicating a bullish structure.
The RSI has retreated from the overbought zone to the neutral level of 61, suggesting a potential resumption of the upward trend after consolidation.
The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands suggests a period of high volatility between 3895 and 3850.
🎯 Trading Strategy and Layout for Next Week
Core Concept: Buy on dips, wait for a breakout.
Main Strategy: Arrange long positions in batches upon a pullback to the 3850-3860 area.
Risk Management Tips: A successful break below 3820 signals short-term weakness and warrants reassessment.
Breakout Signal: A firm break above 3895 will initiate a new round of upside.
Rhythm Control:
⏰ Focus on upward momentum in the Asian and European sessions.
⏰ Be wary of technical pullbacks in the US session.
⏰ Position for reversal opportunities during the midnight session.
⚠️ Risk Warning and Outlook
If the government shutdown continues, it could further disrupt market sentiment.
Delayed data releases exacerbate policy uncertainty, and volatility may remain elevated.
The overall trend remains unchanged, but caution should be exercised against the risk of a market shakeout at elevated levels.
💎 Summary
Gold maintains a structural bull market, driven by the dual engines of safe-haven and interest rate cuts. Short-term volatility is simply building momentum for a breakout. Traders should remain patient and adhere to the principle of "pullbacks are opportunities, breakouts are trends" to navigate this volatile market steadily.
🔥 Follow us for early positioning strategies and real-time price updates for next week's non-farm payroll figures!
📈 Market Review and Current Trends
Spot gold stabilized and rebounded on Friday (October 3rd), breaking through the $3,850 mark and reaching an intraday high of $3,879, an increase of over 0.59%. Gold prices have rebounded significantly from their previous low of $3,838, maintaining a strong bullish trend overall. Two "deep V" reversals occurred during the week, demonstrating strong bargain-hunting buying.📊
🔍 Fundamental Drivers Analysis
1. 🛡️ Safe-haven demand continues to build
The US government shutdown enters its third day, and the political deadlock exacerbates economic uncertainty.
Geopolitical risks loom, and funds continue to flow into safe-haven assets.
2. 💰 Expectations of rate cuts rise again.
The September ISM Services PMI plummeted to 50.0, far below expectations.
The employment component has remained in contraction territory for four consecutive months, reinforcing the Fed's case for rate cuts.
The market is betting on another rate cut at the October FOMC meeting, and the probability continues to rise.
3. 📉 Data vacuum exacerbates volatility.
Delays in the release of the non-farm payroll report and CPI data due to the government shutdown.
The Fed's decision-making is shrouded in a "data fog," increasing uncertainty about its policy path.
📊 Technical Analysis from Multiple Dimensions
1. Key Position Analysis
🟢 Support Area: 3860-3865 (previous resistance turned support) → 3838 (Thursday's low) → 3820 (strong support).
🔴 Resistance Area: 3895-3900 (Historical High)
2. Indicator Signal Analysis
The 4-hour chart has stabilized above the 21-period SMA (3864), indicating a bullish structure.
The RSI has retreated from the overbought zone to the neutral level of 61, suggesting a potential resumption of the upward trend after consolidation.
The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands suggests a period of high volatility between 3895 and 3850.
🎯 Trading Strategy and Layout for Next Week
Core Concept: Buy on dips, wait for a breakout.
Main Strategy: Arrange long positions in batches upon a pullback to the 3850-3860 area.
Risk Management Tips: A successful break below 3820 signals short-term weakness and warrants reassessment.
Breakout Signal: A firm break above 3895 will initiate a new round of upside.
Rhythm Control:
⏰ Focus on upward momentum in the Asian and European sessions.
⏰ Be wary of technical pullbacks in the US session.
⏰ Position for reversal opportunities during the midnight session.
⚠️ Risk Warning and Outlook
If the government shutdown continues, it could further disrupt market sentiment.
Delayed data releases exacerbate policy uncertainty, and volatility may remain elevated.
The overall trend remains unchanged, but caution should be exercised against the risk of a market shakeout at elevated levels.
💎 Summary
Gold maintains a structural bull market, driven by the dual engines of safe-haven and interest rate cuts. Short-term volatility is simply building momentum for a breakout. Traders should remain patient and adhere to the principle of "pullbacks are opportunities, breakouts are trends" to navigate this volatile market steadily.
🔥 Follow us for early positioning strategies and real-time price updates for next week's non-farm payroll figures!
Trade active
📊 Gold Technical Structure Analysis
Key Resistance: Repeated failures to break above the psychological barrier of $3,900 have created a significant resistance barrier. 🚧
Swing Range: The 4-hour Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, defining the 3840-3893 range as the primary range.
Bull-Bear Game: The market is generally bullish, but a prolonged period of resistance highlights the potential for a reversal. ⚡
🎯 Trading Strategy Recommendations
🔹 Range Unbroken Phase
Main Strategy: Buy high and sell low, capitalizing on opportunities at the boundary.
Avoid chasing gains and losses in the middle; maintain patience.
🔹 Breakout and Follow Phase
Upward Breakout of 3893: Buy after a pullback confirms a move.
Downward Breakout of 3840: Buy after a weak rebound.
🔹 Monday Opening Strategy
First Order Recommendation: Try a small short position below 3900.
Logic: Defensive counterattack after repeated failed upward attacks.
⚠️ Risk Warning
Positive fundamentals aren't one-way. Be wary of a reversal in expectations. Narrowing Bollinger Bands signal impending unilateral market volatility. Strict risk management is essential for survival in volatile markets.
💎 Summary and Outlook
Gold is at a critical juncture on the eve of a breakout, with the battle between bulls and bears at the 3900 mark poised to determine the winner. Until the direction is clear, it's recommended to maintain flexible positions and capitalize on high-probability opportunities at the range boundaries!
👉 Follow us for professional position management advice, precise entry points for your first trade, real-time notifications of breakout signals, and the ability to be the first to place your first trade in a breakout market! Let's seize the next wave of trend opportunities together! ✨
Trade closed: target reached
📈 Trend Structure Analysis
Daily Chart: Price breaks through previous high range, with the K-line trending steadily upward along the short-term moving average. The overall trend remains bullish. 🚀
4-Hour Chart: Successfully breaks through previous resistance zone, with the moving average system showing a bullish trend, indicating a strong short-term structure. 📊
1-Hour Chart: Retracement strength is limited, with the K-line trending strongly along the short-term moving average. However, be wary of the risk of short-term corrections due to short-term technical divergences. ⚡
🎯 Key Position Alerts
🟢 Support Zone: 3900-3905 (previous breakout level converted to support)
🔴 Resistance Target: 3930-3940 (upward extension target)
⚡ Today's Trading Plan
Strategy: Buy on dips
Entry Zone: 3905-3910
Risk Control: Stop-loss at 3898 (7-point risk control)
Target Zone: 3930-3940
💡 Core Logic
After a breakout is confirmed, watch for stabilization signals within the previous resistance-turned-support zone (3900-3905) to participate in a secondary rally. Maintain strict risk control and be wary of short-term fluctuations caused by small-cycle divergences.
Following the trend and maintaining strict discipline are the keys to long-term success!
If you require real-time strategy update notifications or specific position management advice, please contact me.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.