Gold – Monday Outlook: Compression Before the Next Move

(Asian Session Opening Analysis)

Overview:
Gold closed last Friday at $3884.78, slightly below its all-time high of $3897.24 (recorded on October 2).
Despite repeated attempts, no 2-hour candle managed to close above $3890, confirming that sellers continue to defend this level aggressively.
From late Friday, price action began forming a lower-high structure, coinciding with headlines about a potential ceasefire in Gaza — a reminder that geopolitical tone often dictates the rhythm of gold.

Key Outlook:
A clear breakout above 3890 may unlock an extension toward 3897–3899, and if bulls manage to secure a daily close above that zone, momentum could shift firmly in their favor.
However, failure to hold above support at 3877–3870 may lead to deeper retracements toward 3850–3840, or even 3828 if selling accelerates.

Technical Context:
Structurally, gold remains in a high-volatility zone. Price is still trading near the upper boundary of the bullish channel, but momentum show early signs of fatigue.
Until we see a decisive breakout above the previous high or a confirmed close below 3870, gold is likely to oscillate within this compression range.

🎯 Bullish Scenario (Buy Setup)

Entry: Above 3892

Targets: 3899 – 3906 – (3922–3926) – 3934 – 3940 – 3955 – 3968

📉 Bearish Scenario (Sell Setup)

Entry: Below 3877

Targets: 3870 – 3863 – (3854–3850) – 3842 – (3830–3828) – 3819 – 3810 – 3797 – 3789 – 3770 – 3760

Trading Notes:
Asian session openings are often erratic and liquidity-thin, making sudden wicks and false breakouts more common. Patience and confirmation remain key — avoid chasing the first move of the week.

Conclusion:
Gold’s directional bias remains cautiously bullish above 3877, but the lack of follow-through beyond 3890 warns of exhaustion. A confirmed breakout will validate continuation toward new highs, while sustained pressure below 3870 could trigger a technical reset.

Disclaimer:
This analysis reflects only my personal market view and is not a trading signal. Financial markets involve substantial risk; decisions remain the sole responsibility of each trader.