Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy for next week

✅ This week, gold closed with a long upper shadow candle, indicating strong selling pressure at higher levels. Since rising from 3311 on August 20, the weekly chart has recorded nine consecutive bullish candles, and this week marks the first bearish close, suggesting that the long-term uptrend is losing momentum and market sentiment is turning cautious. Structurally, the medium-term bullish strength is weakening, and if gold fails to stabilize, it may gradually enter a corrective phase.

✅ The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be announced next Wednesday. If the outcome and statement do not trigger significant changes in policy expectations, market volatility is likely to remain limited, and gold will probably continue oscillating within the $4000–$4200 range. It’s worth noting that rate-cut expectations have already been largely priced in; if the statement leans hawkish, gold may face short-term pressure, while a dovish tone or any geopolitical risk events could trigger a temporary rally.

✅ On Friday, the daily candle formed a long lower shadow of about $70, indicating solid buying interest at the bottom. A short-term technical rebound is possible; however, if the rebound fails to break above previous highs, gold could easily form a “spike and drop” pattern.

✅ On the 1-hour chart, the structure currently shows a “double-top + consolidation” pattern, with key resistance near 4160–4161.
If gold breaks and holds above 4161, it could form a “triple-bottom” structure on the 1-hour chart, opening room for a further rise toward 4200.
However, if the rebound fails below 4160, short-term momentum will likely remain weak and range-bound.
Key support is seen near 4010–4005, and a breakdown below this level could trigger a retest of 4000.

🔴 Resistance Levels: 4160–4185
🟢 Support Levels: 4010–4005

✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold rebounds to 4160–4150 and faces resistance, consider light short positions, with a stop loss 8-10$ and targets at 4100–4050.

🔰 If gold pulls back to 4010–4005 and stabilizes, consider short-term long positions, with a stop loss below 3995 and targets at 4080–4100.

✅ After nine consecutive weeks of gains, gold’s first bearish weekly candle shows diminishing upward momentum. In the short term, the market remains in a sideways consolidation phase. Focus on the 4160 breakout zone and the 4000 support area. Before a clear breakout occurs, maintain a range-trading strategy, selling at highs and buying at lows, with strict risk management.