XLP Long trading opportunity(swing-trading) 1

Oct 3

I expect a swing of about $3-$4 all the way up to $81+- around 1-3 months max.

I am risking money.

My entry price is $77.80

This is a buy and hold trade in a lower risk lower volatility instrument, I do think it can go lower than $70 any time soon but that would then be 20%+- down from its peak.

Oct 7

Trade active

going to get locked in if it goes down and hold, I have a layered entry plan down to 74, worst case we drop to 70+-, if it drops more than that, then that would imply the undoing of 3 years of gains which... is something I am not going to bet on, that would defy and completely smash the defensiveness value of XLP which has if you use the ticker for consumer staples before 1998(when this ETF started) from 1990 if not earlier always been defensive and always fell less than the SP500, we are looking at a 20%+ drop with no recession ongoing etc. I am definitely going to not bet on that but capital will be locked in about 60% of total available money if it goes south and I have to hold, max hold period 3-6 months in worst case scenario is what I assume.

Yes XLP is still somewhat expensive if you look at the gloomy revenue results for some of its major underlying holdings, but 20%+ just out of the blue is not something consumer staples experienced in the last 40+- years.

Other important notes:

XLP is diversified in about 50%+ in foreign non USA markets.

Oct 7

Note

"XLP is diversified in about 50%+- in foreign non USA markets."
in revenue income, about half

Oct 9

Note

reconsidering hold to use max about 40-50% of available money I can use

Oct 14

Note

PG will likely drag down XLP a bit for the coming weeks if earnings release is bad, its already bad the forecast but if its a negative surprise its even worse, watch for a negative surprise earnings release next week 24 October 2025. PG is around 10% of XLP

Oct 31

Note

will hold, valuation wise after major holdings earnings releases it is undervalued if you take its forward yield P/E against its historical average P/E.

70-80% of my money will be locked into XLP.

I have no regrets of that, entry price is $76