Price is compressing inside a falling wedge with demand below 2.72. A clean daily close above 2.98 opens 3.05 then 3.15.
Trend is corrective after the July impulse, printing lower highs inside a falling wedge. Internal structure is bearish-to-neutral, but compression suggests energy building for a break. Price sits mid range near the 0.5 retracement, with external liquidity resting above 3.05 to 3.15 and equal lows below 2.55 to 2.47. A daily break and hold above the wedge top would mark a change of character back to bullish; a sweep into the lower green box keeps the larger uptrend corrective.
Levels
Wedge resistance: 2.98
FVG supply ceiling: 3.15
0.5 retracement: 2.905
0.618 retracement: 2.726
Liquidity below swing lows: 2.470
Plan A
Trigger and confirmation
Wait for a daily close above 2.98 and the wedge trendline. Look for a retest that holds as a bullish order block or a higher low on 4H.
Invalidation level
A daily close back inside the wedge or below 2.86.
Targets: TP1, TP2, runner
TP1 3.05, TP2 3.15, runner 3.35 toward prior range high.
What would invalidate the idea
Failure to hold the breakout retest and sustained acceptance back under 2.90.
Plan B
If price sweeps the downside first, watch 2.72 to 2.60. Trigger on a sweep and reclaim of 2.70 with a 4H change of character.
Invalidation and targets
Invalidation on a daily close below 2.47. Targets 2.90, 3.05, 3.15.
Confluence
EMAs 20 and 50 are flattening while the 200 remains upsloping, consistent with a corrective pause. RSI is holding near 50 with mild bullish divergence versus the September swing low. Volume has compressed during the wedge, so expansion after a break should confirm. Volume profile favors 2.90 as a local point of control, with value area low near 2.70 aligning with the 0.618. Fib context places current price near the 50 level, with discount bids in the 62 to 79 zone.
Risk
Define risk at invalidation, not by feel. Size positions so a full stop hit is tolerable. Wait for confirmation instead of chasing the first spike.
Disclaimer
Educational content only and not financial advice
Trend is corrective after the July impulse, printing lower highs inside a falling wedge. Internal structure is bearish-to-neutral, but compression suggests energy building for a break. Price sits mid range near the 0.5 retracement, with external liquidity resting above 3.05 to 3.15 and equal lows below 2.55 to 2.47. A daily break and hold above the wedge top would mark a change of character back to bullish; a sweep into the lower green box keeps the larger uptrend corrective.
Levels
Wedge resistance: 2.98
FVG supply ceiling: 3.15
0.5 retracement: 2.905
0.618 retracement: 2.726
Liquidity below swing lows: 2.470
Plan A
Trigger and confirmation
Wait for a daily close above 2.98 and the wedge trendline. Look for a retest that holds as a bullish order block or a higher low on 4H.
Invalidation level
A daily close back inside the wedge or below 2.86.
Targets: TP1, TP2, runner
TP1 3.05, TP2 3.15, runner 3.35 toward prior range high.
What would invalidate the idea
Failure to hold the breakout retest and sustained acceptance back under 2.90.
Plan B
If price sweeps the downside first, watch 2.72 to 2.60. Trigger on a sweep and reclaim of 2.70 with a 4H change of character.
Invalidation and targets
Invalidation on a daily close below 2.47. Targets 2.90, 3.05, 3.15.
Confluence
EMAs 20 and 50 are flattening while the 200 remains upsloping, consistent with a corrective pause. RSI is holding near 50 with mild bullish divergence versus the September swing low. Volume has compressed during the wedge, so expansion after a break should confirm. Volume profile favors 2.90 as a local point of control, with value area low near 2.70 aligning with the 0.618. Fib context places current price near the 50 level, with discount bids in the 62 to 79 zone.
Risk
Define risk at invalidation, not by feel. Size positions so a full stop hit is tolerable. Wait for confirmation instead of chasing the first spike.
Disclaimer
Educational content only and not financial advice
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.