I want to scratch my prior idea as the market is showing me it is in a distribution phase in this range.
I am confident that the all time high will hold until price pulls back down to the prior low of 43,400 and then take out the all time high.
Does this look familiar?
The exhaustion bar with ZERO follow through is what is telling me this range will break bearish. Price is bumping its head on that weekly close
Another clue is on the Weekly chart. Price closed above barely with a peek a boo. High chance of a false break reversal.
On the weekly chart, you don't want to see a break and close above with no follow through. It is not a sign of continuation. It is a sign of a false break reversal. When it false breaks, it reverses back to the other side of the range.
I am confident that the all time high will hold until price pulls back down to the prior low of 43,400 and then take out the all time high.
Does this look familiar?
The exhaustion bar with ZERO follow through is what is telling me this range will break bearish. Price is bumping its head on that weekly close
Another clue is on the Weekly chart. Price closed above barely with a peek a boo. High chance of a false break reversal.
On the weekly chart, you don't want to see a break and close above with no follow through. It is not a sign of continuation. It is a sign of a false break reversal. When it false breaks, it reverses back to the other side of the range.
Note
After the all time high breaks, I will be watching price and see if it can hold strong or will it break above and reverse. A thesis I have held all year is the return back to the 2020 yearly open. Trade active
I am short near the close of today at 45,752 using 750, Friday's close as resistance. Stop loss above the exhaustion bar with the thesis it should hold. Going for a simple 3 to 1 risk reward with the hopes I can be out before CPI Thursday. I am not worried about tomorrow's PPI. 120 tick stop
365 tick target
Probably my only trade this week
Note
I entered short off of those levels after this bear pin hammer bar on the 15 minute. Do I know this will play out? Not a clue. I don't need to know. Just keep executing my system over a long series of trades and manage my risk is all I can do.Trade closed: target reached
300 tick target hit after the pump and dump PPI
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.