I have been all over ZCash for the past two months. I have been surprised of the strenght of this particular cross and how uncorrelated to broader crypto ZEC has been. It’s time for a technical analysis update.
So far it has been pretty simple, big mark-up followed by stall stall, and then range (box), in essence it looks like a classic re-accumulation. Inside the box we saw multiple secondary tests near the bottom, contracting volatility, then a Sign of Strength (SOS) attempt into/through the box top. The 0.00556 is the prior “creek” from the first impulse; it held on every dip, demand dominant. If we now close and hold above the box, the next phase is a BUEC (retest of the box top that turns resistance to support) before continuation.
On a candles perspective: At range lows we printed long lower shadows and a bullish engulfing follow-through; at the recent push higher we’ve got wide real-body green closes (near-high closes, small upper wicks) = bullish marubozu behavior. Watch for shooting stars/evening stars at the box top, failure there would just mean more rotation inside the range.
Momentum/volume: MACD turned up with a positive cross and rising histogram; RSI is back through 60–70 (bull zone). Volume contracted through the range and expanded on the up-legs, textbook for absorption before a break.
My game plan
Base case (continuation):
Break-and-BUEC: Wait for a close above the box high on volume > 20-period avg.
Buy the retest of the box top (BUEC).
Invalidation: close back inside the box mid (or below 61.8% of the breakout leg).
Targets: measured move (H), then Fib 1.272 / 1.618. Trail below higher lows or the 20-EMA.
Alternate (range rotation):
If we print a false break (bearish engulfing back into the box with rising red volume), fade the move and re-accumulate at the box low on a springy candle (long lower shadow + RSI bullish divergence). Stop just under the box.
Bear-switch (trend break):
Close below 0.00556 (creek) + follow-through = distribution risk. Shift to defense: target Fib 61.8–78.6% of the whole up-leg and wait for a fresh spring before re-risking.
Risk notes: RSI in the low-70s can flag a brief pause; that’s fine if pullbacks hold the box top/38.2–50% area. Don’t chase wide candles; let the BUEC come to you.
TL;DR: Structure says re-accumulation, momentum agrees, and we’re attempting an SOS over the box. I’m bullish into a break -> BUEC → measured move sequence, with a hard line in the sand at 0.00556.
Not Financial Advice
So far it has been pretty simple, big mark-up followed by stall stall, and then range (box), in essence it looks like a classic re-accumulation. Inside the box we saw multiple secondary tests near the bottom, contracting volatility, then a Sign of Strength (SOS) attempt into/through the box top. The 0.00556 is the prior “creek” from the first impulse; it held on every dip, demand dominant. If we now close and hold above the box, the next phase is a BUEC (retest of the box top that turns resistance to support) before continuation.
On a candles perspective: At range lows we printed long lower shadows and a bullish engulfing follow-through; at the recent push higher we’ve got wide real-body green closes (near-high closes, small upper wicks) = bullish marubozu behavior. Watch for shooting stars/evening stars at the box top, failure there would just mean more rotation inside the range.
Momentum/volume: MACD turned up with a positive cross and rising histogram; RSI is back through 60–70 (bull zone). Volume contracted through the range and expanded on the up-legs, textbook for absorption before a break.
My game plan
Base case (continuation):
Break-and-BUEC: Wait for a close above the box high on volume > 20-period avg.
Buy the retest of the box top (BUEC).
Invalidation: close back inside the box mid (or below 61.8% of the breakout leg).
Targets: measured move (H), then Fib 1.272 / 1.618. Trail below higher lows or the 20-EMA.
Alternate (range rotation):
If we print a false break (bearish engulfing back into the box with rising red volume), fade the move and re-accumulate at the box low on a springy candle (long lower shadow + RSI bullish divergence). Stop just under the box.
Bear-switch (trend break):
Close below 0.00556 (creek) + follow-through = distribution risk. Shift to defense: target Fib 61.8–78.6% of the whole up-leg and wait for a fresh spring before re-risking.
Risk notes: RSI in the low-70s can flag a brief pause; that’s fine if pullbacks hold the box top/38.2–50% area. Don’t chase wide candles; let the BUEC come to you.
TL;DR: Structure says re-accumulation, momentum agrees, and we’re attempting an SOS over the box. I’m bullish into a break -> BUEC → measured move sequence, with a hard line in the sand at 0.00556.
Not Financial Advice
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.