ZEC — The Shoe is About to Drop

My 7 reasons why ZEC is about to drop to the heel of the shoe.


1. Price Rejected Hard at the 0.236 Fibonacci Level

• The recent top at $752
  
• Strong rejection at $582 (0.236 level)
  
• Price tried to reclaim 0.236 multiple times and failed, which signals:
  
• The bullish trend has lost strength and a deeper retracement is likely.
  

In most parabolic assets, 0.236 → 0.382 → 0.618 is the natural sequence when momentum dies.
ZEC already hit 0.382 around $476, and bounced weakly. Next logical magnet is 0.618 = $306.

2. The $548 Horizontal Level Was Lost (Key Breakdown)

$548 was:

• former support
  
• former demand zone
  
• heavy volume node (visible on histogram)
  
• Price closed below it, which makes it broken support → new resistance
  

Losing this floor confirms that buyers couldn’t defend the mid-range.
When a mid-range collapses, price usually moves to the next major liquidity pool, which here is:

👉 0.618 Fib at $306
👉 200MA cluster between $380–$400

3. Volume Profile Shows a Gap Below $480

• Volume bars reveal high trading activity between $540–$620
  
• A void / low-volume area between $470 → $380
  
• Markets tend to fill low-volume gaps quickly because:
  
• There is little historical demand to slow price down
  

This means once $480 breaks convincingly, price can accelerate rapidly toward:

📌 $380–$400
📌 $305–$330

4. MACD Bearish Cross With Increasing Bearish Momentum

MACD shows:

• MACD line crossing below signal line
  
• Histogram printing deeper red bars
  
• MACD approaching the zero line
  
• A MACD cross this high up (after a parabolic run) is dangerous
  

When MACD crosses down after a blow-off top, the retrace is usually 50–70%.
That places ZEC’s ideal retrace zone between:

• 0.5 Fib → $391
  
• 0.618 Fib → $306
  
• Again, pointing toward the $300 range
  

5. Stochastic RSI Bottoming? Not Yet — Could Stay Oversold in a Downtrend

• Stoch RSI is oversold, but this is misleading because:
  
• In downtrends, Stoch RSI can remain pinned down while price continues falling.
  
• This happens during macro trend reversals.
  
• Oversold Stoch does not mean reversal—it often means continuation.
  

6. Aroon Indicator Shows Strong Downtrend Confirmation

• Aroon indicator is down (purple) is dominating
  
• Aroon Up (green) is completely suppressed
  
• This means trend strength = bearish
  
• Aroon tends to be a leading indicator, so with this reading:
  
• Trend is already confirmed bearish. More downside is expected.
  

7. Market Structure: Lower Highs + Breakdown of Rising Structure

The chart clearly shows:

• A lower high after the top (not a good sign)
  
• Breakdown of the parabolic rising wedge
  
• Failed retest zone around $600
  
• Candle spreads widening on down moves (increasing sell pressure)
  
• All of that is consistent with a distribution pattern after a massive run
  

Once distribution completes, assets typically retrace to:

📌 0.618
or
📌 the base of the breakout structure

The base of ZEC’s breakout...
→ $300–$350 area