Technical analysis across soybeans (ZS), soymeal (ZM), soybean oil (ZL), and NY Harbor ULSD (HO) points to an imminent shift in trend for soybean oil, with strong prospects for a reversal and medium-term recovery.
Soybean Oil (ZL) – Daily Chart Focus
Support Zone & Anchored VWAP: ZL has reached the “golden pocket” reversal area between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (48.48–46.63), confirming major technical support. Current price action is also interacting with an anchored VWAP—suggesting that this is a fair value zone for institutional buyers and sellers.
Momentum & Volume: RSI is at oversold levels and volume is elevated, indicating potential exhaustion of selling and fresh accumulation. Candle formation shows lower wicks at support, hinting at strong defensive buying.
Reversal Scenario: Should ZL reclaim the VWAP on a daily close and RSI begins to turn up, it would confirm a high-probability reversal. If this support zone breaks, the next anchor is 45.75–43.85.
Soy Complex – Soybeans (ZS) & Soymeal (ZM)
Soybean (ZS): Both daily and weekly charts show breakout momentum, above prior resistance, on sharply rising volume and RSI. Price structure favors continued upside, which helps stabilize weaker components, including ZL.
Soymeal (ZM): Shows extreme outperformance, with a runaway weekly breakout and volume spike. This leads the soy complex higher and increases the likelihood that soybean oil finds foothold and rebounds if ZS and ZM remain strong.
NY Harbor ULSD (HO) – Energy Market Link
Trend & Support: HO! remains on a bullish trajectory with strong support, base-building above key volume areas. RSI is positive, supporting a further rally.
BOHO Spread Implications: Strong HO prices tighten the BOHO spread, which directly enhances biofuel blending margins for soybean oil. This translates to increased discretionary demand for ZL when energy markets are trending higher.
Combined Outlook: Soybean Oil’s Trend & Prospect
| Market | Current Trend | Signal for ZL | Outlook for Soybean Oil |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Soybeans | Breakout, bullish | Supportive | Underpins stability |
| Soymeal | Explosive rally | Strong leadership | Increases reversal odds |
| ULSD (HO) | Bullish, stable | BOHO favorable | Fuels biofuel demand |
| Soybean Oil | Testing strong support | Oversold, ready to turn | High-probability reversal |
Final Read:
Soybean oil is at its most statistically reliable technical reversal zone, supported by strength in the broader soy complex and a bullish energy market. If buyers defend the golden pocket and reclaim anchored VWAP, a trend reversal and corrective rally are highly probable. Price action, volume, and momentum are all aligned for a mean reversion if confirmation occurs in upcoming sessions.
Soybean Oil (ZL) – Daily Chart Focus
Support Zone & Anchored VWAP: ZL has reached the “golden pocket” reversal area between 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (48.48–46.63), confirming major technical support. Current price action is also interacting with an anchored VWAP—suggesting that this is a fair value zone for institutional buyers and sellers.
Momentum & Volume: RSI is at oversold levels and volume is elevated, indicating potential exhaustion of selling and fresh accumulation. Candle formation shows lower wicks at support, hinting at strong defensive buying.
Reversal Scenario: Should ZL reclaim the VWAP on a daily close and RSI begins to turn up, it would confirm a high-probability reversal. If this support zone breaks, the next anchor is 45.75–43.85.
Soy Complex – Soybeans (ZS) & Soymeal (ZM)
Soybean (ZS): Both daily and weekly charts show breakout momentum, above prior resistance, on sharply rising volume and RSI. Price structure favors continued upside, which helps stabilize weaker components, including ZL.
Soymeal (ZM): Shows extreme outperformance, with a runaway weekly breakout and volume spike. This leads the soy complex higher and increases the likelihood that soybean oil finds foothold and rebounds if ZS and ZM remain strong.
NY Harbor ULSD (HO) – Energy Market Link
Trend & Support: HO! remains on a bullish trajectory with strong support, base-building above key volume areas. RSI is positive, supporting a further rally.
BOHO Spread Implications: Strong HO prices tighten the BOHO spread, which directly enhances biofuel blending margins for soybean oil. This translates to increased discretionary demand for ZL when energy markets are trending higher.
Combined Outlook: Soybean Oil’s Trend & Prospect
| Market | Current Trend | Signal for ZL | Outlook for Soybean Oil |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Soybeans | Breakout, bullish | Supportive | Underpins stability |
| Soymeal | Explosive rally | Strong leadership | Increases reversal odds |
| ULSD (HO) | Bullish, stable | BOHO favorable | Fuels biofuel demand |
| Soybean Oil | Testing strong support | Oversold, ready to turn | High-probability reversal |
Final Read:
Soybean oil is at its most statistically reliable technical reversal zone, supported by strength in the broader soy complex and a bullish energy market. If buyers defend the golden pocket and reclaim anchored VWAP, a trend reversal and corrective rally are highly probable. Price action, volume, and momentum are all aligned for a mean reversion if confirmation occurs in upcoming sessions.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.