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Highprobability

October 05, Forex Outlook: Key Moves to Watch This Week!Welcome back, traders! In today’s video, we’ll be conducting a Forex Weekly Outlook, analyzing multiple currency pairs from a top-down perspective—starting from the higher timeframes and working our way down to the lower timeframes. Our focus will be on identifying high-probability price action scenarios using clear market structure, institutional order flow, and key confirmation levels. This detailed breakdown is designed to give you a strategic edge and help you navigate this week’s trading opportunities with confidence. 📊 What to Expect in This Video: 1. Higher timeframe trend analysis 2. Key zones of interest and potential setups 3. High-precision confirmations on lower timeframes 4. Institutional insight into where price is likely to go next Stay tuned, take notes, and be sure to like, comment, and subscribe so you don’t miss future trading insights! Have a great week ahead, God bless you! The Architect 🏛️📉
Education
by The_Archi-tect
Weekly Trade Outlook | Lessons in Discipline, Risk & PerspectiveGreetings Traders, In today’s video, I’ll be walking you through my end-of-week trade outlook, breaking down every setup I took throughout the week. This session is designed to offer insight into how I apply risk management, trading rules, and maintain psychological discipline in real-time market conditions. Whether you're struggling with emotional trading, inconsistency, or overtrading, this video will give you a fresh perspective on how structure, faith, and discipline can shape a sustainable trading approach. Remember: respect your trading rules, pray over them daily, and ask God for the strength to remain disciplined—so you don’t become your own worst enemy in the market. Let’s grow together, The Architect 🏛️📈
Education
by The_Archi-tect
2
PLR (Path of Least Resistance) Strategy Explanation - $SHOPHi guys this is a follow up to a post I have just published about my trading idea on shorting NYSE:SHOP , It really doesn't matter if you want to short the market or long the market as it works either way, but for the sake of the example I'll take a 6 months period from the Shopify chart following earnings to better explain you my strategy... This right here is the NYSE:SHOP chart from approx. Jan/2024 to end of Aug/2024, 2 Earnings have been announced, both having great positive surprises, but regardless of the positive surprise (typically bullish indicator), the stock fell of 45%+. Let's add the earnings dates to the chart so that you can better visualize them: What you care about in this image is the earnings dates lined out, as you can see the surprise was positive yet both fell more than 10% in just a day, that I will take as the upcoming trend for at least the time being, till the next earning is announced (so, if for example the 13/Feb earning ended up being bearish, my overview on the market till at least the next earning on 8/May, will be bearish, so all of the trades I will take will be shorts). Now I will line out the trend and the BoSs (breaks of structure) just to better visualize the trend: As you can see the Earning date candles signed the beginning of a down trend twice, pre-announced by the Earning candle itself. The entry strategy is now simple, the idea behind it is to "follow the path of least resistance".. by that I mean that, if your bias is bullish, who enter on candles that are of the opposite direction to the one you are heading to? - Sure you might say that it is to get better entries as ofc, on a short bias, higher sale points = better profits, but the goal here is not maximizing profits, but raising the odds exponentially so that you can take surer trades. I've tested this strategy from Feb/2021 and so far the win rate is 95.6% (123 out of 136 trades profited . The way the entries are spread is this: Basically every time a bearish candle - that closes lower than the previous bearish candle did - is created, a short position of 1% of total equity is generated. The period begins from the beginning of the current earnings season, and closes the day before the next earnings season as it works within a 3 months frame. Each entry HAS to be the lowest bearish candle of the period, example: Only these candles marked in blue count as entries for short positions as their close is lower of more than 0.5% than the previous one, The pink ones are higher than the lowest up to that point, so they do not count as entries as they are technically part of a pullback that is moving in the opposite direction where you are heading. So, going back to the entries, we enter on the close of the lowest bearish candle close up to that point. For safety, we trail the stop loss to the previous high, this is where well defined trend lines come handy: The thick black line is the trend line, and as new lows are broken, I mark those as BoS (break of structure) and until a new one is created, the SL will go to the previous high, and so it goes. (viceversa for buys). We then proceed to target the FVGs left behind by previous quarters: As you can see there are massive gaps in the chart that we will target and identify as FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) and set the TP at the close (lowest point) of the fair value gap. Now comes in your exit strategy... There really are 3 ways that you can tackle this: 1- You set up TP to the lowest FVG of the series (if there are multiple like in this case) 2- You set up TP to the first FVG still open during the quarter following the Earnings Period 3- You tackle both TPs and take each FVG as a partial close to the position (example: if there are 2 FVGs you take out 50% of the position on the first and 50% on the last). But what to do if your positions didn't reach TP (FVG close) before the next Earning or there is no FVG to begin with??? - In the case the TP you have marked out at the close of the FVG didn't reach, you'll proceed to close the position 1 day before the next Earnings is coming, unless your conviction that the FVG will fill in is so high, then you can let those run at your own risk: - In the case in which a FVG is not present then you'll target the previous High (in case of a buy) or Low (in case of a sell) as your TP, utilize the previous low (in case of buy) or previous high (in case of sell) as SL and just let it run: as you can see the 4 trades were all profitable, made little money but sure money in just 15 days Unless I forget anything, this right here, is my strategy. Simple, straight forward, high success rate and doesn't leave anything up to the case. If you have any questions PLEASE leave a comment below and I'll do my best to reply in time ;)
SEducation
by BancoMatt
1
How I identify the best forex pairs to trade:Here is how I identify the best forex pairs to trade: In the top left panel, the indicator 'Compare Forex' displays the PERFORMANCE of each major currency. The USD (red line) has been the strongest currency for the past 2 months on H6 charts. By identifying the strongest currency, all that remains is to trade the USD against all the other currencies since they are weaker. = Smooth stress-free charts. I look at my trades 2-3 times a day to see if they are still blue or red. Takes a few minutes.
Education
by ascension
13
Quarter Theory: Intraday Trading Mastery - Part 2 ExamplesGreetings Traders! In today's video, we'll continue our deep dive into Quarter Theory Intraday Trading Mastery—a model rooted in the algorithmic nature of price delivery within the markets. We’ll explore the concept of draw on liquidity through premium and discount price delivery, equipping you to identify optimal trading sessions and execute high-probability trades, all while aligning with market bias. This video is part of our ongoing High Probability Trading Zones playlist on YouTube. If you haven't watched the previous videos, I highly recommend doing so. They provide essential insights into identifying and acting on market bias, which Quarter Theory enhances further. I highly recommend you watch ICT2022 Mentorship model on YouTube, it will really help you in your trading journey, the link to the mentorship is provided below. I’ll attach the links to those videos in the description below. Quarter Theory: Intraday Trading Mastery - Part 1 Intro: Premium Discount Price Delivery in Institutional Trading: ICT 2022 Mentorship: www.youtube.com High Probability Trading Zones: www.youtube.com Best Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by The_Archi-tect
Quarter Theory: Intraday Trading Mastery - Part 1 IntroGreetings Traders! In today’s video, we’ll be introducing Quarter Theory Intraday Trading Mastery, a model grounded in the algorithmic nature of price delivery within the markets. We’ll explore candle anatomy and learn how to predict candle behavior on lower timeframes to capitalize on intraday trading opportunities. This model will also help us identify the optimal trading sessions and execute trades with high probability, all while effectively acting on market bias. This video will focus primarily on the foundational content, with practical examples to follow in the next video. In the meantime, I encourage you to practice these concepts on your own to deepen your understanding. This video is part of our ongoing High Probability Trading Zones playlist on YouTube. If you haven’t watched the previous videos in the series, I highly recommend checking them out. They provide crucial insights into identifying market bias, which Quarter Theory will help you act on effectively. I’ll attach the links to those videos in the description below. Premium Discount Price Delivery in Institutional Trading: Mastering Institutional Order-Flow Price Delivery: Quarter Theory Mastering Algorithmic Price Movements: Mastering High Probability Trading Across All Assets: Best Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by The_Archi-tect
Mastering High Probability Trading Across All AssetsGreetings Traders! Welcome back to today’s video! In this session, we're revisiting the critical concept of draw on liquidity. I'll guide you on how to take advantage of it with extreme market precision, focusing on when to trade, when to avoid the market, and how to increase your chances of high-probability trade outcomes. If you're looking to enhance your trading strategy and make smarter decisions, this video is for you. Let's dive in and start mastering these concepts! Refer to these videos as well: Premium Discount Price Delivery in Institutional Trading: Mastering Institutional Order-Flow Price Delivery Quarter Theory Mastering Algorithmic Price Movements: Best Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by The_Archi-tect
Quarter Theory: Mastering Algorithmic Price Movements!Greetings Traders, and welcome back! In today's video, we’ll dive deep into Quarter Theory—a powerful concept that can take your trading to the next level. We’ll break it down step-by-step, explain how it works, and show you how to implement it into your strategy. Quarter Theory is all about studying the algorithmic price delivery within the markets. It’s grounded in Time and Price Theory, which suggests that significant market moves often occur at specific price levels and times. This foundational idea will help us predict price movements more effectively. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out the previous videos in the High Probability Trading Zones playlist for the key concepts you’ll need to fully grasp today’s content. For those watching on TradingView, links to previous videos will be included to help you catch up. Mastering Institutional Order Flow & Price Delivery: Premium & Discount Price Delivery in Institutional Trading: We’re kicking off a weekly series on Quarter Theory, with the goal of helping you build a robust trading model by the end. Stay tuned! Best Regards, The_Architect
Education
by The_Archi-tect
2
High Probability Trading Environments Part 2: Liquidity RunsIn this educational video, we'll explore the distinction between High Resistance Liquidity Runs and Low Resistance Liquidity Runs, crucial for identifying High Probability Trading Environments. Our analysis will focus on NAS100USD, providing insights into potential trading opportunities for the week ahead. By understanding these concepts, you'll gain valuable insights into positioning yourself effectively in the market. Be sure to watch to gain a comprehensive understanding of the key confluences that contribute to successful trading strategies. Understanding Trend Analysis, SMT and ICT Concepts Mastering High Probability Trading Environments Part 1 Kind Regards, The_Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by The_Archi-tect
Mastering High Probability Trading EnvironmentsIn this educational video, we'll delve into High Probability Trading Environments and introduce a simple yet effective concept to confirm their presence . Understanding these environments will empower you to confidently navigate the market with consistency and success. For a comprehensive understanding, I recommend watching my previous video on Understanding Trend Analysis, SMT, and ICT Concepts below. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments section. Happy trading! The_Architect
Education
by The_Archi-tect
How to Find a High Probability Trade in an Uptrend Hey Traders, We'll show you how you can find an easy trade with a high risk-to-reward ratio using some basic concepts. - Step One: Spot an uptrend where you have higher highs and higher lows. - Step two: Spot the last break of structure. - Step three: Use the Fibonacci tool and connect it from the recent lows to the recent highs. - Step Four: Watch prices coming back to the broken structure that lines up with any Fibonacci level. ( Focus on the 50% - 61.8% - 78.6% Levels ) - Step Five: Wait for a clear bullish candle and then enter with stoploss structure - Step Six: Take partial profits at the recent highs and the Fibonacci extensions ( - 0.27 & -0.618 )
Education
by Tradenessfx
3
📕Low-Quality setups (UNCLEAR) VS High quality (CLEAR) setups📕High quality (Clear) vs Low Quality (Unclear, wicky, random, guessing) Setups in Our Trading High quality clear (HQC) setups are best representations of your EDGE, they allow you to feel confident in the MOMENT of placing a trade, and you can feel relatively good about it even if it’s a loser, because you know you traded in clear market environment and did your best HQC setups bring you HEALTHY excitement and joy from the process of your trading, in case of a winner, usually not leading to overconfidence and doesn’t lead to attachment to random reward, and in case of a loser - you are not dragged into revenge or depression, because you know losers are also part of your strategy and your execution was good When you enter HQC setups that speaks about you as about a trader you tested their strategy, who knows what they want to see in the market and applied effort to stay away from bad condition and wait for a better one. These skills alone are so much better than 1 random +3R or +5R winner Low quality unclear (LQU) setups mean something is out of your mental game today, you feel not feel good in longterm perspective trading them, because you kind of KNOW you should trade them, but you still do. It all sucks you into an emotional circle. LQU setups bring you UNHEALTHY , short term lived overexcitement in case of a winner, attaching you to random rewards, which is fatal for a trader. Every time entering a LQU setup you develop a habit or “teach” yourself that it is easy and fast way of earning money. Just see something distantly reminding about your setup and enter. Sometimes you’ll get away, but longterm you’ll lose more. LQU setups means you are you fully confident in your core strategy, and so you may unconsciously search for random entries, because you entered like this before and it brought you reward. Trading LQU setups is destroying your mental game and account in the short, medium and longterm Picture attribution Frame Border PNGs by Vecteezy
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
3
HTF direction LTF execution Hello traders -In this example, we have explained the high probability setup after a reaction from a strong supply zone. - Here, we have an entry after the reaction from the supply zone, which we will break down in detail in the following steps; 1) We can see that the price is in a downtrend, and supply has full control. 2) The price moves towards the supply zone, and make liquidity 3) In one move, the price picks up liquidity, and we see a good reaction from the supply zone. 4) An impulsive reaction from the supply zone tells us that we have a strong supply zone and we can expect a downtrend 5) After the reaction from the supply zone, we see a nice momentum, and then the price starts to pullback to our entry. 6) The price creates liquidity, that's another positive confirmation we see here. 7) We currently have everything we want to see, and the price from our entry is expected to continue impulsively towards the downtrend - It is very important to read the PA in detail in order to understand the psychology behind the PA and to more easily recognize your high probability setup. -Other people do not look at the market the way we do. They do not look at everything in detail. They don't know that this is necessary because if they do not understand the language of the market, they will have a lot of problems. -It is hard, it requires time and hard work, and you need to be eager and well disciplined. -Once we learn the language of the market and the way it communicates with us, we will always be able to understand what the market is saying to us. - Don't forget to leave a like, if you have any questions, write us below in the comments.
Education
by hybridtradingfx
2
100EMA,200EMA,400EMA CROSSOVER ON 30MINHi Trading View Family, Today I have found very intersting chart of DR REDDY, here we can see that on 30min TF we have found 100EMA,200EMA crossing each other when 100EMA cross 400EMA ,We can generate a buy,As100EMA,200EMA,400EMA is forming straight line on chart and then crossing which shows that price has been consolidate and now can go away from MOVING AVERAGE to give movement.So a high probability buy signal will be triggered when 100EMA CROSSES 200EMA,400EMA, and target of 1:2 can be achived.
NSE:DRREDDYEducation
by bhoirjanmesh3
Intraday trading opportunities using liquidity gapsLiquidity gaps (price spikes) occur on the charts all the time and it doesn't matter what time frame you're looking at as you will find them everywhere. Now, not all liquidity gaps fill but depending on the market environment you're in, you can use these liquidity gaps to your favour to help discern where the market could go next sometimes with higher probability. What you have when you see a sharp spike in price are inefficient moves created in a direction where there is usually thinner liquidity present which is the reason for such a sharp drive in the first place, so when price starts to slow down after the move and show signs of weakness we can look for any topping or bottoming structures/patterns that may lead to price starting to fill the gap back to the original point where price took off from. As price starts to move back to the original position there is increased probability for price to fill the original drive higher or lower as there is not a lot of volume/transactions present in the price action to halt the move coming back towards the origin with great effect. Also, If price does fill back to the origin then there is a good chance that we could also see a bounce at this level again as this is where most of the order flow ignited the original spike higher/lower and additional volume could be present to help protect the original move. As you can see from the chart, we have shown 2 intraday moves on AUDUSD to show this natural movement in price that occurs very frequently both in a long and short example.
Education
by DavidVillagra
2
HOW TO TRADE MARKET STRUCTURE HOW TO TRADE MARKET STRUCTURE 1) WE CAN SEE THAT USDCAD HAS BEEN IN AN UPTREND MAKING HIGHER HIGHS & HIGH LOWS. THIS IS DISPLAYED WITH THE A-B-C-D MOVEMENTS 2) AT 'C' WE REACHED A KEY RESISTANCE ZONE AT 1.42500 RESULTING IN THE NEXT PHASE OF THE UPTREND TO CREATE A NEW HIGHER LOW AT D 3) AT 'D' USDCAD BEGINS THE NEXT PHASE OF OVERALL UPTREND AND ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A NEW HIGH. HOWEVER THIS UPWARD MOVE FAILS AS WE FAIL TO BREAK ABOVE 'C' & INSTEAD END WITH THE MOVE TO 'E', SIGNALLING A POTENTIAL END TO THE UPTREND 4) THE NEXT MOVE FROM 'E-F' CREATES A NEW SUPPORT LEVEL AT OUR PREVIOUS LOWER HIGH 'D' (1.41142) ZONE 5) THE NEXT MOVE FROM F-G IS AN ATTEMPT FROM BUYERS AT THE SUPPORT LEVEL CREATED FROM E-F (1.41142) TO TRY AND CONTINUE THE UPTREND HOWEVER 'G' NOW CREATES A LOWER HIGH 6) FROM G-H WE CAN SEE PRICE IS MAKING A THIRD TEST OF THE SUPPORT LEVEL AT (1.41142). A FAILURE OF THE SUPPORT LEVEL HOLDING GIVES US A GOOD ENTRY POINT TO ENTER A SELL POSITION WITH OUR PROFIT TARGET OF 105 POINTS AT 'H' (1.40000)
Education
by ezinvesting
How to be a Successful Forex Trader Segment 3CBACK TESTING CONT.: High probability set-ups To be a consistently good trader, you must trade in a consistent manner. As those of you who follow me and review my trade idea’s know, they are the same, almost boring. You see Type 1 (Shown above) or Type 2 trades all the time and they look all the same. EXACTLY!!! That is what you need. If you have taken (either live or back tested), and documented, the same set-up numerous times, you can develop a statistical basis for the probability of that trade type’s success. IMHO, this is a critical element to achieving long term Success. I believe, if you know statistically, the probability of a trades success then you will be more confident in it and allow it to play out. Moreover, if you have a method that is not quite up to snuff, then get rid of it. I would urge you to be more selective in your trade process and only look for trades that you know, through your back-testing, have a high probability of success. This is Quality over quantity. Stay green my Friends Allen ** The Above chart is an example of how I document my trades-- every trade. I also use a spreadsheet to keep track of the data.
Education
by AGold54
32
Trading BCH with the ZenTrend follower & Gameplan for hardforkThis is how we're trading BCASH with our indicator. Now there is of course news of the hard fork and all that, but this is how we have traded it purely technically based on our indicator. Check the post linked below on how to get access to the trial period and you can try it out for yourself! We have taken the trades based purely on the breakout indicator and the trailing stop that the indicator plots. We start at (1) with a long setup, which does not get triggered. The setup switches short (2) and we get entered in the trade. The market moves and we get stopped out at the red crosses the indicator plots. (4) We made a small 1.4% on that trade, nothing to get to exited about, but no loser either. We get another short setup which remains untriggered (5), followed by an untriggered long setup (6). At (7) we get another short setup which does get triggered. We get stopped out at (8) again with a basically break-even trade of .4% profit. A new short setup immediately follows and we get triggered short at (8). We get stopped out at (9) with a 2.8% profit. (10) Gives us another short setup that does not get triggered, followed by a long setup which triggers a trade at (11). We move our stop op as the indicator tells us to do (12). We then start getting extreme overload signals (the dots above the candles) (13), and move our stop to the bottom of the candles at signs of weakness. The other stop loss is moved up by the indicator too(14). We’re getting more overextension signals so we move our stop to the bottom of the candle at (15). Here we get out of 70% of our position, the remaining 30% has the stop at (14). If the market does move down off these overextension signals we will look for re-entry signals the indicator gives us to get back in! Now looking at the hardfork, we plan to get out just before the hard fork at signs of weakness in price, as we expect coin to collapse after that. You can count on about 99% of all BCH that has been bought in the last few days to be sold as soon as the hard fork is done.. If we are wrong it that case we can always re-enter our positions, in safety. To get access to the indicator and try it out, please go here: Like and subscribe if you enjoy our work! Stay calm, and happy trading! ZenTrader
BEducation
by DariusZen
[Tips] High-Probability Trade with Fibonacci Retracement How To Use Fibonacci Retracement to find High-Probability Trade Setup Brief Definition: Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool among technical traders and is based on the key numbers identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the thirteenth century. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major High and Low) on a chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels. These ratios seem to play an important role in the financial market and can be used to determine critical points that cause price to reverse. The direction of the prior trend is likely to continue once the price has retraced to one of the ratios listed above. Tips for Effective Setup: 1. Analyze the general overview (big picture) of price movement to the current trend. In the above example, blue vertical line divides chart into 2 section, Downtrend on the left and Uptrend on the right. We can use MA200 to identify the overall trend. 2. Look at the price movement carefully and then draw Fibo Ret from the extreme pivot points. For Downtrend, drag 100% level from previous High to 0% level at the newly formed Low. For Uptrend, drag 100% level from previous Low to 0% level at the newly formed High. 3. Pay attention to the price movement to the opposite direction of the general trend. Wait for any price rejection to the same direction with the general trend at one of the Fibo Ret level. Entry zone which quite popular are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% level. 4. Probability of success will increased if price rejection occurs at the confluence of Support and Resistance levels. ie. confluence of one Fibo Ret level with Support / Resistance area, Trendline, or Chart Pattern. The point is, more confluences are taking places, probability of success for price rejection at Fibo Ret level is higher. Few Examples: Example 1 - 3 for Downtrend case (MA200 sloping down) Example 4 - 5 for Uptrend case (MA200 sloping up) 1. (Normal Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from around Fibo Ret 50%. The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be normal and not too deep. 2. (Higher Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from the confluence of 2 resistance: Fibo Ret 23.6% and Resistance Area 110.648-110.771. The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be quite deep. 3. (Highest Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from the confluence of 3 resistance: Fibo Ret 61.8%, Major Down Trendline (diagonal red line), and Resistance Area 110.275-110.346. The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be very deep. 4. (Higher Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected up from the confluence of 2 support: Fibo Ret 38.2% and Support Area 110.648-110.771. The uptrend continuation after price rejection tend to be quite high. 5. (Normal Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected up from around Fibo Ret 61.8%. The uptrend continuation after price rejection tend to be normal and not too high. Happy Trading...
Education
by arieg1985
1