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Risk Management

How to set % risk per trade based on your statistical dataHey whats up traders today it will be a short one in the bullet points but I believe a valuable points to think about. The setup matters, but the real foundation is how much you risk per trade. If you don’t control this, nothing else works. Your edge collapses. Your psychology collapses. And your results become completely random. If you are not gambler you most likely risk between 0.5 -2% risk per trade. Good, but why? Many traders use this risk because it's kind of well known and recommended value risk per trade. Ok, it's relatively safe, but if you don't have it build based on your statistical data. You can be also risking to low while you could make more. So In this post is not about why we should use risk management and calculate if for each position based on SL distance. I already did this post below 👇Click the picture to learn more In this post I will try to give advice how you can calculate best risk per trade for you based on your strategy and risk. I always recommend backtest at least 300 examples of strategy. When you do that, you know your average win rate on average target. From the tab bellow you can see how many % of trades you need to win with the specific risk reward. Here is also important to consider your ability to hold in the trade. Its amazing to catch 1:5 risk reward trades, but it mostly comes with low win ratio in other words, you will get stopped out few times until you get big trade. Also 1:5 risk reward usually has a pullback during the move. Can you face it without emotions being affected? Most importantly, you finally understand something every professional lives by: you don’t know the distribution of the trades. You may have a 65% percent win rate. It still means that you can have 35 losses out of 100 traders. Remember distribution of wins and losses is random , you never know outcome of next trade. It could be win win loss win. Or loss loss loss win win. Or a brutal streak of seven losses before the market pays you back. ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅ When wins and losses are evenly distributed it's quite comfortable to continue in opening new trades. You still believe your strategy and it's simply normal to have loss time to time. ✅❌❌❌✅❌❌❌❌❌✅✅ But what you gonna do when such a streak comes? Are you gonna doubt your strategy? Are you gonna look for different strategy? Remember 65% success rate means 35 possible losses out of 100. If 20 losses comes in a row your long term statistics still was not broken. Dont think this cant happen to you. If this didnt happen to you yet, you are not trading for long enough. It will come and its better to be prepared. 📌 Lets look at the Monte Carlo simulation with our 65% win ratio and 2RR As we can see on the picture below if you start with 10K and follow your strategy in a short period of one month we can face drawdown and end unprofitable even when we did everything right. Why? We did everything right and we have positive winning ratio and Risk reward 📌 Random distribution of the trades I don't win every trade, you don't win every trade. No one does. Trading is longterm game and short term result can be a bit random. Because you are might trend trader and market can stay in the range during some months or you are a reversal trader and its still trading against you. So how to beat it - Time. 📌 Lets have a look at the same setup 65% Win rate and 2 RR But now let's have look at the long-term results. As we can see on chart below. after some time even the worst case distribution is getting in to the profit. However there still was 3 months around break even - Frustrating but its the reality 📌 Lets improve Risk reward to 2.3 You will be getting slightly bigger wins so every loosing streak will be recovered faster. And you should not stay in the prolonged drawdowns for long periods 📌 Lets improve win ration to 70% And its even better less often you got loss and 2.3 RR recover slightly better. 📌 So what should be my risk per trade First done look on how much you want to make, trading is mainly about protecting capital. After you got your statistical data. Run Monte Carlo simulations and try to model the worst case distribution of the trades. For example if you got 70% win rate - means you can lose 30 trades out of 100. Be ready that it can happen, even its unlikely and if that really happens it means something is wrong with your strategy or you made too much mistakes. But count with it that it can happen.. Setup your risk per trade in such % that you would be comfortable if that happens. 📍 0.25% Risk - 30x Loss = - 7.5% 📍0.5% Risk - 30 x Loss = - 15% 📍1% Risk - 30 x Loss = -30% 📍2% Risk - 30x Loss = - 60% 📍3% Risk - 30x Loss = - 90% Define what would you be able to accept and be comfortable even during a loosing streak. 📌 Have more accounts This will give you flexibility. Im running 3x personal accounts. Each with different risk. with copy trading system to distribute my positions. 🎯 Account 1: Here Im opening all trades which I has well defined risk and its A+Setups. If I open a trade on this account they goes automatically to the other 2 accounts. So I got proportionaly this positions on whole capital with 1% risk. 🎯 Account 2: Here are running copied trades from Account 1 + Im opening another positions when I want to add or increase the risk also used for short terms setups. Its 3% risk only form this one specific account and its not copied to other accounts. 🎯 Account 3: Here are running trades from account 1 + This account is also used mainly for the crypto trades and news trading. Trades are also isolated just for this account and not copied to the whole portfolio. 🎯 Prop Firm Trading For the prop trading where more strict rules Im using completely different approach which I described in this post below 👇Click the picture to learn more Final tip: Try to have strategy with win rate between 65 - 70% and 2 - 2.5 RR. If you got anything lower than that you can go thru some dark periods, but you will survive if stick to your plan based on the statistics. If you don't have statistical data of your strategy, stop trading for while , step back and do a bit of backtesting Tradingview has great backtesting features. David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by David_Perk
22
Trading Future - 1-Minute TimeframeTrading Future - 1-Minute Timeframe CME_MINI:MES1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:M2K1! RSI Low (Reversal) Entry Strategy Spot ENTRY Trend completed - Succeed ! Entry Criteria ✔ RSI Low alert ✔ RSI crosses above MA ✔ Price crosses above SMA9 ✔ Price pullback holds SMA9 ✔ Optional: Price above SMA20 for stronger confirmation Exit Criteria ❌ Price closes below SMA9 ❌ Price falls below HMA-Low (secondary exit) ❌ Price hits target below HMA-High line Indicators Setup: 1. HMA Low/High – Length 15 Entry: Price crosses above HMA-Low and stays inside the HMA channel. Exit: Price falls below SMA 9 OR price goes below HMA-Low line (secondary exit). 2. SMA 9 (Blue) Entry: Price pulls back to SMA9 but does not fall under it. Exit: Price falls under SMA9. 3. SMA 20 (Red) Confirmation trend line. Entry Confirmation: Price crosses above SMA20. 4. SMA 70 (Teal) Higher-timeframe trend bias. 5. RSI (14) – Low/High 30/70 Reversal signal at RSI Low. RSI extreme lows highlight with BG color. 6. MACD Histogram (12/26/9) Trend confirmation: Histogram cross above 0 = momentum shift upward. Trading Steps: 1. Identify the RSI Low (Alert) RSI prints a lowest point and background highlights in the extreme zone. 2. RSI Crosses Above Its MA (Yellow) RSI breaks above its MA = early upward momentum. At the same time: Price crosses above SMA 9 (blue). 3. Entry Trigger Wait for a price pullback to SMA9, BUT price must not break below SMA9. If SMA9 holds support → Enter long. 4. Stop Loss Rules Primary Stop Loss: Price closes below SMA 9 (blue). Secondary Stop Loss: Price dips just under HMA-Low = early trend failure. 5. Position Hold Conditions (Confirmation) Hold the trade ONLY IF: Price stays above SMA 9. MACD Histogram crosses above 0 → Trend shifts from negative to positive, confirming upward movement. 6. Ride the Trend Let price continue inside HMA channel. Wait for trend to complete (usually when RSI approaches 70 or MACD weakens). 7. Profit Taking (Exit Rules) Option A: HMA-High line target Set take-profit just below HMA-High line. Option B: SMA9 Breakdown Exit when price falls below SMA 9 (blue).
CME_MINI:MES1!Education
by CongsChart
Stop Loss: Feelings vs. Statistics (Why Fixed SL Fails)Most traders set their Stop Loss based on feelings: "I’ll put my stop below this wick" or "I always risk 50 points." The problem? The market doesn't care about your 50 points. The market has a natural heartbeat called Volatility. If you use static rules (fixed pips) in a dynamic market, you are gambling, not trading. Today, we replace "feelings" with Statistics using the Average True Range (ATR). 1. The Statistical Reality Market volatility expands and contracts. In low volatility: A 50-point move is a trend change. In high volatility: A 50-point move is just "noise" (random fluctuation). If your Stop Loss is placed inside the "Noise Zone," you will get stopped out even if your direction was correct. You are paying the market a fee for being too tight. 2. The Solution: The ATR Bands The Average True Range (ATR) measures the average size of the last 14 candles. It calculates the "noise." Instead of a fixed number, your Stop Loss should be dynamic. The Rule: A statistical stop loss should be outside the current noise—usually 2x the ATR. 3. The Tool in pinescript example I have written a simple script for you. It draws a "Noise Channel" around the price. If price is inside the gray zone: It is just noise. If price breaks outside the band: The trend is statistically significant. Open your Pine Editor and paste this in : ( before you paste the code to your pine editor keep the first line which is the version 6 then delete everything and past this code ) indicator("Kodologic: ATR Noise Bands", overlay=true) // 1. Input for Sensitivity multiplier = input.float(2.0, title="ATR Multiplier (Stop Distance)") length = input.int(14, title="ATR Period") // 2. Calculate the 'Heartbeat' (Volatility) atrValue = ta.atr(length) // 3. Define the Upper and Lower Statistical Bands upperBand = close + (atrValue * multiplier) lowerBand = close - (atrValue * multiplier) // 4. Plotting // The Gray Zone represents 'Market Noise'. // A safe Stop Loss usually belongs OUTSIDE this zone. p1 = plot(upperBand, color=color.new(color.red, 50), title="Statistical Short Stop") p2 = plot(lowerBand, color=color.new(color.green, 50), title="Statistical Long Stop") fill(p1, p2, color=color.new(color.gray, 90), title="Noise Zone") 4. The "Secret" to Consistency When you switch to ATR stops, your Stop Loss distance will vary. Sometimes it will be wide, sometimes tight. "But what if the ATR stop is too far away for my account?" Do not tighten the stop. Lower your position size. Amateurs try to force the market to fit their account size. Pros adjust their position size to fit the market's reality. Trade the data, not the hope. I am building a series on how to move from subjective trading to objective, data-driven strategies using Pine Script. Follow for the next update.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by Kodologic
2
Master the Market with This Secret StrategyHey traders! If you’ve ever watched XAUUSD suddenly explode up or crash down and wondered “What just happened?” — this is the answer. And that’s exactly why today’s topic matters. To truly master gold, you need to understand one thing better than most traders do: how interest rates and the FED shape every major move on this chart. When I first started trading, I relied heavily on patterns, indicators, and momentum signals. But the longer I traded, the more obvious it became: gold doesn’t make its biggest moves because of a pattern — it moves because the flow of money shifts. And nothing shifts money faster than the FED. Interest rates are basically the “price of the dollar,” and gold reacts to that instantly: High rates → strong USD → gold usually drops. Lower rates or a dovish tone → weaker USD → gold rallies hard. But here’s the part most traders never realize: The FED doesn’t need to change rates to move gold. Sometimes a single hawkish or dovish sentence is enough to push XAUUSD $20–$30 in minutes. That’s why understanding the tone of the FED — not just the numbers — is your real edge. And this leads to the strategy I’ve used consistently with XAUUSD: If the market expected hawkish but hears dovish → gold pumps. If the market expected dovish but gets hawkish → gold drops fast. That “expectation gap” is what gives us the clean moves we love trading. On TradingView, I keep it simple: I never enter on the first spike — that move is almost always engineered to grab liquidity. Instead, I wait 15–30 minutes for the real structure to form, watch for a break and retest, and then I follow the true direction. This approach has saved me from countless traps during FED weeks. So when you’re analyzing XAUUSD, don’t just stare at the candles. Look at the interest rate environment. Listen to the FED’s tone. Measure what the market expected versus what actually happened. Master that connection — and suddenly the gold chart feels less chaotic and a lot more predictable.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Luiss_Miguel
How to Calculate Lot Size for Trading XAUUSD on TradingView Very few people know that there is a free position size calculator for any trading instrument and, of course, for GOLD on TradingView. It is absolutely free , it does not require a paid subscription, and it can be used to measure position size for XAUUSD trading for any account size, leverage and broker. In this article, I will teach you how to calculate lot size for your XAUUSD trades in 3 simple steps. Set It Up The first step will be to simply create a free TradingView account. Then open Gold price chart and find a trading panel. It will be at the bottom of the screen. Click " expand " in the right corner. In the suggested options, choose TradingView Paper Trading and click " Connect ". In paper trading window, click " create an account ". Choose the account balance, leverage and commissions exactly as you have with your real gold trading account. And now your best free gold position size calculator is ready . How to Use It Once you found a trading setup, know the exact stop loss level and your desired risk per trade. Let's imagine that we want to buy Gold now. To calculate the best lot size for our trade, we should know the exact level of our Stop Loss. Let's take 2770 level for the sake of the example. Right-click on that chart and choose " trade " and " create new order " then. The window that will appear on the right side of the chart. It will be your lot size calculator on TradingView. Select " stop loss " checkbox and input the desired risk percentage for a trading position. Let's take 1% as the example. In the price field, input the exact price level of your stop loss : 2770 in our case. In Gold XAUUSD, trading 1 standard lot equals 100 units/ounces. Your lot size will be based on the number of units. Take that number and divide it by 100. In our case, we have 54 units. Our lot size will be 54 dived by 100 or 0,54. That will be your lot size for the Gold trade. What I like about TradingView position size calculator is that once you set your default parameters, the only thing that you need to adjust for the measurement of a lot of size is the level of stop loss of your Gold trading position. If you use TradingView for charting, it will be very convenient for you to use it. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Why Set and Forget Can Be Costly: A Judas Swing Recap on $EURUSDThis week offered a powerful reminder that even a strong setup can turn into a losing trade if you rely solely on a set-and-forget approach. While the Judas Swing strategy continues to deliver consistent opportunities, this particular FX:EURUSD setup showed us why active trade management matters especially in fast-moving sessions. Going into the session, FX:EURUSD presented a clean range with well-defined liquidity above and below. As expected, price swept the Judas Swing zone lows, the first step in our Judas Swing framework which immediately shifted our attention to potential buying opportunities Once price took liquidity from the lows and broke structure to the upside, all the pieces aligned: - Liquidity sweep - Break of structure - Retracement into FVG Everything checked out, and we entered the long position with our standard 1% risk and a 2% target. The trade moved beautifully in our direction. In fact, we came within just a few pipettes of hitting our take-profit level. At this point, a trader who is actively managing the trade may consider scaling partial profits, reducing risk, or adjusting stops to protect open equity especially when price delivers most of the move. But with a pure set-and-forget approach, none of those protective actions take place. And that’s where the trouble began. After almost reaching our TP, momentum shifted. Price stalled and slowly pushed back against us. What looked like a clean continuation setup turned into a full reversal, and the market drove straight through our stop loss. Instead of closing the week with a solid win, we took a loss not because the strategy failed, but because we didn’t adapt to the information the market was giving us in real time. A set-and-forget approach sounds appealing: - No emotions - No second-guessing - No screen time But here’s the reality markets aren’t static. They evolve candle by candle. Sometimes the difference between a +2% week and a –1% week is simply staying engaged enough to protect partial profits or take action when price hesitates near your target. This trade wasn’t a failure. We followed our rules and we don't regret it. Do you prefer to set and forget or you manage the trade
Education
by CleoFinance
The Anatomy of a Good Trade: Focus on Decisions, Not ResultsLet's find out - what is a good trade? Most beginners answer: a trade that makes money. But in professional trading, a good trade has nothing to do with the outcome. It has everything to do with the quality of the decision. 1️⃣ A good trade starts with an A-Setup: An A-Setup is not a feeling — it’s a repeatable pattern with structure and logic. ✔ Clear market context ✔ Direction aligned with market structure ✔ Liquidity levels identified ✔ Entry trigger confirmed ✔ Risk defined before the trade If one of these is missing, it’s no longer an A-Setup — it’s hope. 2️⃣ A good trade has positive expectancy: Winning one trade means nothing. Winning a sample size of 100 tells you everything. A positive expectancy means your setup: loses small - wins bigger - and performs consistently over time You don’t need to win every trade — you need a system where the average outcome is in your favor. 3️⃣ A good trade follows process, not emotion: A professional doesn’t judge a trade by profit or loss. They judge it by one question: “Did I execute my plan without breaking the rules?” If yes → it was a good trade. Even if it ended in a loss. Because long-term success comes from repeatable behavior, not from chasing single outcomes. The Truth: ➡️ A good trade is not defined by green or red. ➡️ A good trade is defined by discipline, structure, and execution. If beginners understood this idea, half of their frustration would disappear. Thanks for reading, and have a great start to your trading week! Let us know in the comments if you found this post valuable - and we might create a full series on applied trading psychology. Jonas Lumpp Speechless Trading Disclaimer: This tutorial is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Its goal is to help traders develop a professional mindset, improve risk management, and make more structured trading decisions.
FX:US30Education
by Speechless-Trading
2
USE THE VIX TO TRADE BETTERSince the market has been a bit crazy lately, it's a good time to teach everyone about the VIX (Fear/Volatility Index) and how to use it to make your trading better. In this video, I show you how I organize the VIX and use it every day to make my day trading and swing trading more adaptable to an ever-changing market environment. VIX GUIDE: Below 15: Low volatility. Calm markets, clean trend. Good for trend traders and swing traders. 15-20: Moderate volatility. This is the average level for the VIX. Market moves noticeably more. 20-25: High volatility. Big moves in the market start to happen at these levels. Great for experienced traders who like volatility. Caution for most other traders. 25-30: Extreme volatility. Tradable for experienced traders, but much greater difficulty level of trading. Most traders are advised to step back in this range. 30+: Chaos. Elite traders may profit, but it is very dangerous for the unprepared trader.
TVC:VIXEducation
by VeroTradeX
How to control risk? Some risk management tricksRisk management is fundamental in the investment ecosystem, and having absolute control over capital is often overlooked. Today I’m going to show you something new: How to keep the same percentage of profits or losses set by our trading plan under all circumstances. When is leverage strictly necessary? Leverage is essential if we want to trade in low-volatility conditions, where small price fluctuations would not translate into consistent profits. For example, currencies have low volatility. In a trade I posted on my Spanish-speaking profile on April 22 in GBP/JPY, I was able to calculate beforehand that from the entry point to the Stop Loss (SL) there was a price movement of 1.27%. Without leverage, trading this would have been a terrible decision. It would mean that with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio we would be willing to win or lose only 1.27%. On most platforms, commissions alone would have eaten us alive. However, wisely used leverage changes everything. If I was only willing to lose 15% of the trade amount, I just had to divide 15% by 1.27% to know the necessary leverage: Leverage = % of loss you’re willing to accept / % of volatility from entry point to exit point (SL) 15% / 1.27% = 11.81 With 11x leverage, my profits (or losses) would be the ones I had previously set (approximately 15%) if my SL or TP was triggered. When should you NOT use leverage? In Figure 1, I show an analysis (Tesla) that I published on May 2 on my Spanish-speaking profile. The volatility percentage from the entry point to the SL in my trade was 23.38%. Such a high movement percentage makes leverage completely unnecessary, considering that according to my trading plan I aim to keep my losses controlled (15% per trade). A 1:1 risk-reward ratio would mean that without leverage I would be exposed to winning or losing 23.38% of the invested capital. Figure 1 How to keep my 15% loss limit in a highly volatile asset? In the Tesla example, where volatility is high, the solution is simple: reduce the percentage of capital invested. To do this, we just subtract 23.38% and 15% (the percentage of loss we are willing to accept per trade) and then subtract the result from our usual trade amount. 23.38% - 15% = 8.38% Let’s imagine I use $200 per trade. To calculate 8.38% of $200, we simply multiply 200 × 8.38/100. With this simple calculation we determine that 8.38% equals about $16.76 of the $200. Then we subtract that value from $200: $200 - $16.76 = $183.24 In summary, if we reduced the trade amount to $183.24, it wouldn’t matter if Tesla moved up or down 23.38%. We would still be making or losing 15% of the original $200, thereby respecting our risk management. Conclusions: I believe risk management is the weak point of most investors. My intention has been to show, with practical examples, how easily trades can be executed while respecting the parameters of a trading plan. Thank you for your time!
Education
by Especulador96
The Prop Trader’s Guide: Win Challenges. Keep Funding. Scale upHey Traders, today we are going to look at the prop trading. It can be solution for traders who has tested and proven their strategies. In this article, we’ll break down the risk rules that keep traders funded, the habits that build consistency, and the mindset that separates steady growth from emotional gambling. If you can master this part of the game, the rest becomes much simpIer. 1️⃣ You must have your strategy well defined and proved on your capital. Prop firms are not solution to the poor financial situation. If you dont trade well and consistently on small capital, bigger capital is not solution. First you need to solve this and have strategy with good winning ration and risk reward. You can check my one. for inspiration I have described it in this post below. 👇 Click the picture to learn more 2️⃣ Understand that in prop firms you are not trading real capital. They just sold you a demo with strict rules and if you pass and earn, they will pay you from what they earned on others who lost challenges. Hence rules are set such that it's not easy to pass and keep the account - but it's not impossible if you adapt. 3️⃣ $100K capital is not $100K if your maximum drawdown is 10%. In the fact your account is 10K - the amount you can really risk. Hence making 10% to pass first phase with 10% max drawdown equals making 100% gain. And second phase 5% adds another 50%. So to get funded you literally need to make 150% not 15%. 📍 If we know that 90% of traders , loose 90% of capital in 90 days on the normal accounts. What will be statistics of prop firms ? Even worse. But you have a chance. if you have a good winning ratio. Which you achieve by filtering just to the best trade setups. I have made it multiple times and still Im funded in Crypto and Forex prop firms. Most important think it this game is risk management. But before I will explain my dynamic risk management for each phase and funded account I give you some tips from my experience. 🧩 Essential Rules for Prop Trading 🧪 1) Its not a straight forward game You must be ready to loose challenge and have money to buy another one. Don't expect get funded and keep the account forever. Unless you will risk 0,1% per trade. We want risk more, because you don't want spend passing challenge for a year. At some point you can loose account even with a good risk management. I lost over 30 challenges in different phases and funded accounts. My total investment was not small, but I withdrew multiple times more in 2025. 🧪 2) Reduce number of trades - Take only best trading setups I trade less on prop account than on my personal accounts. I take there only A+ setups the ones which are obvious and Im confident to taking them. In the fact I should trade like this on my personal ones also, but I trade more often.🤷‍♂️ Don't fall for a trap to trade every day every move up and down. Have your routines. For your inspiration you can check this article 👇 Click the picture to learn more 🧪 3) Grow prop capital not % gains If you would be hedge fund manager who deliver 3% a month consistently you would be considered as top star trader. However we as retail traders want more. Because we mostly don't have bilion dollars portfolio's. But if you work well in prop trading 3% Is life changing and its actually not difficult to achieve. ⁉️ How to achieve a 3% a month Is 3% gain a month difficult ? If you risking 0.5% per trade with 1:2 RR it actually means That you must win just 3 trades. Now look at your Trade journal, you definitely had 3 good wins in a month. Only thing you need to do is to eliminate those other unnecessary trades. $ 100K Funded account - 3% gain - 80% Profit split = $2400 payout How to make more ? Don't go for bigger % gains. Get another funded accounts and build your capital. If you pass another 4 x $100K challenges you will get $500K AUM capital. Then with your 3% gain and 80% profit split = $12 000 payout. Then you reinvest and you aim for $1000 000 funding to aim for $20K a month with making 3% a month. 🧪 4) Be patient and have a long term vision Don't expect this happen in month or two. Write down your plan how you will acquire and will work on your prop trader career. Getting funded $1000 000 is a work for at least a year. 🧪 5) Don't trade all challenges at the same time Yes you will be missing profits if you doing well, but if you loosing it will be affecting your portfolio completely. Take trades separately. I trade each pair on different props and Crypto also separately in the different prop firm. 🧪 6) Start with small $10K account to practice Trading is performance discipline, dont put yourself under the stress by buying $100K or $200K challenge on the beginnings. Start with $10K just to practice and trade within their rules. Once you pass these easily you are ready to go big. 🧩 Dynamic Risk management for the Prop trading When it comes to successfully passing Crypto prop challenges, an effective risk management strategy is crucial. Finding the right balance between risking too little and too much is key. Both extremes have their downsides; risking too little may result in prolonged evaluation phases while risking too much can lead to blowing through challenges quickly and struggling with the emotional aspects of trading. Therefore, you can employ a dynamic risk management approach that combines the strengths of both methods. The specific risk management protocols may vary within different phases of the funded account, typically consisting of two evaluation phases and the funding stage upon successful completion of both. 1️⃣ The 1st Challenge Phase: In this phase, where a 10% profit target is required for quick progress, you can adopt an aggressive risk management approach. With the following dynamic risk management Start with risking 0.5% per trade if your balance increases +1% increaser risk pert trade to 1% if your balance increases +3% increaser risk pert trade to 1.25% if your balance drops back to 0% reduce risk to 0.5% If your balance drops below 3% reduce risk per trade to 0.25% If your balance drops below 5% increase risk to 1% You might wonder why the risk per trade increases to 1% even when the drawdown exceeds 5%. This is to minimize time opportunity costs. Rather than slowly trading out of drawdown, you can prefer to increase risk and attempt to either break even quickly or accept the possibility of losing the challenge. If you can not afford to lose a challenge, sticking to lower risk like 0.25% per setup until the account returns to break even might be a better option. 2️⃣ The 2nd Evaluation Phase – Verification Once phase 1 is completed, and a lower profit target is required, a less aggressive risk management approach is employed:https://www.tradingview.com/x/Lrf4f1XO/ Aim to keep our time-based opportunity costs relatively low in the 2nd evaluation phase. Losing the 2nd phase account would mean having to repeat the 1st phase, which is why we adopt a more cautious approach and strive to minimize potential drawdown. Risk is only increased when we have a cushion of at least +2%. If the drawdown falls below -2%, we maintain a risk of a quarter percent until the drawdown is fully recovered and back above the -2% threshold. This approach is designed to create a balance between preserving capital and meeting the objectives of the 2nd evaluation phase. 🎯 The Funded Account: In the funded account, where both phases have been passed, preserving the account becomes the top priority, followed by receiving the first pay-out and refund of the signup fee. Funded accounts should be approached conservatively, and the risk management protocol is adjusted as follows:https://www.tradingview.com/x/QncyMGOz/ Lowering the risk per setup as the drawdown increases serves as a protective measure to prevent breaching the maximum drawdown rule. This approach may result in a longer process of trading out of drawdown, but it is a more favorable alternative to losing the account Completely. As mentioned, your goal should be build longterm big capital and diversify between prop firms. For instance, you might allocate one account for swing trades and another for day trades. This diversification is just one example; there are various possibilities to explore. 👉 Prop Firms Selection Opening a prop firm is easy, you just need couple thousands and you buy complete setup with platform and system. Then you start selling demo accounts. Hence there is thousands of prop-firms these days. You want to go just with the serious ones. Which means not the easiest conditions and not the cheapest challenges. But these will most likely last longer. ‼️ Avoid Prop firm which has: - Cheap challenges or massive discounts - Easy conditions to pass challenges - Trailing Drawdown rules - Too big profits splits - Too many consistency rules - Restrictions trading news - Too many bad reviews (they will most like have more good reviews than bad - its Fake) - If you Trade Crypto look for prop firm on Crypto exchange. Not in CFD broker. Trading is not easy and prop firms makes it even more difficult, but its not impossible. Expect failures and frustration on your journey. You can handle it, you will handle everything, you will always find solution. Keep going re-invest profits and build portfolio. Main goal is to build personal account from their money without their rules. Good luck David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter
Education
by David_Perk
34
Improving My Win Loss Ratio In Forex Trading Achieved With 9.92%Not only I was able to achieve my Win Loss Ratio but I was able to make 9.92% profit in three weeks. Improving my win loss ration in Forex Trading in this manner was amazing. Even when I started the improvements I didn't imagine I will turn the table 180 degrees. I was going to accept my Win Loss ratio to skew towards the loss side. With a good RRR the balance would still increase. But the result that I got is that my Win Loss is now 17:11 while before was something like 4:14. I don't have the exact old Win Loss ration anymore as the formula was damaged. The search for a solid Forex Trading Plan is not over yet. The plan that I have is still scary and very risky, as it does not have any Stop Loss or Take Profit in it. I open several positions and then close them all as one batch once they reach an acceptable percentage of the current balance. With the current method of closing the whole batch I am still leaving money on the table, and since I am trading the daily timeframe, a position trigger does not come easily. Trading this time frame is really scary and intimidating not to mention that I am trading it without any stop loss or take profit. Unfortunately, I still didn't find a way to include those protections yet, but next week I will try to solve the challenge of leaving money on the table. Next week I will start dealing with each trade as a thesis of its own. Each trade will have it own story. Once the story approaches its end I will close the trade whether it is winning or losing. Meaning, the thesis that opened the trade needs to change to close the trade. I am testing if I will have the stomach for such a scary ride.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
Improving My Win Loss Ratio In Forex TradingWell, Some good news, actually great news. The experiment worked and in this video I show how I am improving my win loss ratio in Forex trading. From a disastrous Win Loss ratio using only SMC now with combining the classical school along with the Stochastic I have been nailing it for the past 20 days with 22 trades and 8.6% increase on my balance. In many cases, especially with advantageous RRR, it is Ok to have the win loss ratio in favor of the Loss, as the RRR will compensate and the balance would increase, but in this case I have the win rate higher and the RRR if it was calculated is also higher. I depend on opening multiple trades and closing them all at once once they hit an acceptable percentage. In the video I said I will close them around 2%, but to tell you the truth, even if it was 1% I would close because no business I know of would bring 1% profit in a day. The concern now with this Forex Trading Plan is that it does not use Stop Loss nor Take Profit. I feel that I am hanging in the air, which is not a good feeling and this might get me inside an emotional imbalance in the long run. Still, the test is going on to evaluate all that.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
22
ABCD Pattern Part 1: Double BottomsWe find the root of technical analysis in the systematic study of repetitive patterns in the historical price record. In the previous article, I explored key aspects of this discipline, such as its history and the fundamentals of its creation. Today, I will focus on a specific pattern, which I like to call the ABCD pattern , and specifically show its logic and practical uses for detecting entries in double bottoms. If my contribution is well received, I will soon show other variants. ABCD is a basic price action structure; what would be an impulse (AB), a retracement (BC), and the continuation of the impulse (CD). Historical Background Classic authors such as R.N. Elliott, Goichi Hosoda, and Alan Andrews dedicated decades to the study of impulsive and corrective waves in the markets. Specifically, the ABC pattern (composed of an impulsive segment and a corrective one) has been a pillar in these theories. For R.N. Elliott, Fibonacci ratios were essential to predict future fluctuations in his Elliott Wave Theory. Alan Andrews developed his own tool, known as the Andrews Pitchfork, and Hidenobu Sasaki contributed to the popularization of Goichi Hosoda's methods in the 1990s, showing how his mentor used measurements to project waves and corrections. As a contemporary reference, we have Scott M. Carney, a pioneer in harmonic trading. His methodology, inspired by the ideas of Elliott, W.D. Gann, J.M. Hurst, and H.M. Gartley, seeks to predict probable reversal zones in price action through Fibonacci ratios. Carney popularized the AB=CD pattern as a four-point structure where the initial segment (AB) partially retraces (BC) and then completes with an equidistant movement (CD), allowing the identification of entry opportunities at market extremes. This pattern, along with its alternate variants, forms the basis of his approach in books like The Harmonic Trader, where he emphasizes the convergence of ratios to maximize trading precision. Let’s Keep It Simple: Description and Psychology of the ABCD Pattern It is extremely harmful to memorize tricks, formulas, and patterns while discarding understanding. Price charts are, above all, a psychological phenomenon. Forgetting this, at best, would be underestimating our greatest advantage as technical analysts. After investors profit from an impulsive wave (AB), at some point many will take partial or full closes of their positions, triggering a correction (BC). Once the price resumes its impulse in the direction of the prevailing force (CD), the eyes of many participants will be on the next correction or inflection point (D). There are many psychologically attractive zones for taking partial position closes, and a Fibonacci extension is a useful tool, but there are so many implications of each ratio that investors will often feel overwhelmed by so much information. Practical Use in Double Bottoms Figure 1.1 In Figure 1.1, I show what would be a bearish impulsive wave making a correction. The horizontal lines show the zones where the price can approximately change direction, forming a double bottom. Instead of memorizing and aligning Fibonacci combinations, I recommend detecting ABCD patterns over the zone, which will increase the effectiveness of our market entries. As confirmation, we will wait for a high-volume entry and a candle pattern that shows strength (false low, bullish engulfing candle, bullish hammer with a large wick or shadow). A false low occurs when the price falls below the price action and bounces upward with force, leaving a wick or shadow at the bottom of the candle and an elongated body at the top (preferably without a wick or shadow), indicating strong rejection by buyers. Figure 1.2 In Figure 1.2, we can observe a real example of the ABCD pattern application in corrections. Our lower line of interest is the one that truly confirms a double bottom thanks to a notable volume entry and an engulfing candle pattern. It is necessary to train our eyes to volatile scenarios, quite unlike those we would find in books. Figure 1.3 Figure 1.3 shows the scenario of an ABCD pattern at our first line of interest. Generally, the first line of interest will be around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone, while the second line of interest is a bit more imprecise, but volume will tend to provide solid confirmation of buying strength. Figure 1.4 Figure 1.4 shows in more detail how, over the zone of our first line of interest, we find a notable increase in volume. In this case, our entry confirmation would come from a false low. Why is the second line of interest more imprecise to calculate than the first line of interest, but one of my favorites? When the price reacts strongly below what would be a support zone in a double bottom, we are generally facing a bear trap, a scenario of extreme volatility. Many bears who entered expecting the continuation of the downtrend will be forced to capitulate in the presence of strong buyer entry. This, added to the capitulation or partial closes of sellers who had positions taken previously, generates a scenario of extreme bullish volatility. I especially like these formations because of the notable volume presence that precedes them and the bullish force unleashed afterward. Trade Management and the Importance of Break-Even A Stop Loss (SL) adjusted below the zone where a bullish candle shows us strength will be extremely necessary in this type of formation, but it will be equally useful to understand that we want to use the force in our favor in the safest way possible. A scenario where we ensure we don’t lose a penny will be psychologically comfortable, so setting an SL at a break-even zone once the price moves in our favor will be an excellent decision, especially in bear trap scenarios, where volatility will generally be high and consistent. We should ensure a risk-reward ratio superior to 1:1, which will be straightforward if we use the SL as described before. In Figure 1.5, you can see how a failed entry in interest zone 1 (which did not confirm correctly with a bullish candle pattern) would not mean a monetary loss if the SL had been moved to break-even; and in Figure 1.6, you will observe the correct trade management in a confirmed entry in interest zone 2. Figure 1.5 Figure 1.6 Importance of the ABCD Pattern The ABCD pattern reflects a part of investor psychology that, in the right context, can give us an extra point of statistical effectiveness. In double bottoms, I recommend taking entries at the first line of interest (around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement) without neglecting the detection of the ABCD pattern and the always necessary volume and price confirmations. At the second line of interest, considering that bear traps are extremely volatile, I believe we could overlook the detection of this type of pattern (ABCD), without discarding the notable volume entry and the candle pattern that confirms the entry. Final Words There are many contexts where an ABCD pattern will be our edge, but I have limited myself to addressing my personal application in double bottoms due to the complexity of the matter and the considerable time it would take me to exemplify each scenario. If what is presented here proved useful, I will continue sharing in subsequent articles about different ways to establish effective entries using this pattern. Bibliography Bulkowski, T. N. (2005). The simple ABC correction. Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities , 23 (1), 52-55. Carney, S. M. (2010). Harmonic trading, volume one: Profiting from the natural order of the financial markets. FT Press. Elliott, R. N. (1946). Nature's law: The secret of the universe. Morge, T. (2003). Trading with median lines: Mapping the markets. Market Geometry.
Education
by Especulador96
The Formula to Make $10000 Daily👋 Hello traders! If you’re looking for a real way to make $10000 every day from the markets, forget about the so-called magic strategies or secret expert tricks. The truth is simple: there’s no overnight success formula. But there is a realistic path built on probability, discipline, and time — and that’s what I call The Formula to Make $10000 Daily . ⚙️ Step 1: Build a High-Probability Trading System 📊 This is your foundation. A good trading system doesn’t have to be complex, but it must have clear rules and consistent logic . You should always know: ✅ When to enter a trade ✅ When to stay out ✅ And most importantly — why you’re entering Choose a strategy you can truly master and apply consistently — such as Break & Retest , Supply & Demand , or Market Structure Shift . Every trade should have a Risk-to-Reward ratio (R:R) of at least 1:2 or higher. 💡 Example: If you risk $2000 per trade and win just two out of three trades daily, you’ll make $4000. Increase your lot size gradually and stay consistent — $10000 a day becomes a realistic outcome. 💼 Step 2: Capital Management – The Key to Survival 🧠 You can’t make $10000 daily if you lose $10000 in one bad trade. Capital management isn’t just about protecting your balance — it’s about protecting your mindset and system. Follow these golden rules: 💰 Risk only 1–2% per trade 🛑 Always use a stop loss 🎯 Set a clear take-profit target With a $50,000 account, risking 1% equals $5000. If your R:R ratio is 1:3, one winning trade a day earns $15000. That’s not luck — that’s mathematics working in your favor . 🧘‍♂️ Step 3: Master the Trader’s Mindset Once you have a solid system and money management plan, the final piece — and the most important — is your psychology . Most traders don’t fail because their system is bad. They fail because they can’t control themselves . Keep these principles close: 🚫 Don’t trade when emotions take control 🚫 Don’t revenge trade after losses 🚫 Don’t increase lot size out of greed 🚫 Don’t force yourself to take trades every day A professional trader doesn’t aim to win every trade — they aim to lose less and lose smart . 🧩 The Real Formula 💎 (High-Probability System + Strict Risk Management + Strong Psychology) × Time = Sustainable Profit There are no shortcuts. No magic indicators. Only you and your discipline . 📖 Real Story One of my students, Ken, started with a $10,000 account. He didn’t try to go big — instead, he aimed to earn 1% a day , or $1000. After six months, by slowly increasing his trade size and staying disciplined, his average daily profit reached $10000 . He told me: “I didn’t need to change my system. I just needed to change myself.” 🎯 Final Thoughts The formula to make $10000 daily doesn’t come from any special indicator, signal, or secret course. It comes from understanding your system deeply, managing your capital wisely, and staying disciplined every single day . 💬 The market doesn’t reward the fastest traders. It rewards the most patient, consistent, and focused ones. If you’re on your journey to becoming a professional trader, start today. 🔥 Build your own formula — and practice it every single day until it becomes second nature.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Erikk_Kraft
9
Quantitative TradingThere are two main approaches to seeking consistent profits through the study of price history: the discretionary approach, based on experience and logical reasoning, and the quantitative approach, focused on identifying and exploiting behavioral patterns under specific market conditions. Contrary to what’s usually thought, neither approach is exclusively intuitive or mechanical. Discretionary traders don’t operate solely on intuition, and quantitative ones don’t lack reasoning when building their systems. Both share fundamental elements: they rely on analyzing price history, spotting repetitive patterns, and applying statistical knowledge and risk management. The main difference lies in flexibility. Discretionary traders enjoy greater freedom to make decisions, which can be harmful for inexperienced investors but a huge advantage for seasoned ones. Quantitative traders, on the other hand, follow strict rules, which reduces emotional influence and often allows automating processes to generate profits consistently. This article is dedicated to exploring some vital concepts and ideas for developing solid and effective quantitative trading. Key concepts about systems • Quantitative systems require strict entry and exit rules A quantitative system must be based on clear and objective rules for trade entries and exits. Though it seems obvious, many educational resources highlight metrics like win rates without considering the subjectivity in the systems they present, making reliable calculations impossible. Before evaluating a system’s stats, the investor must ensure all parameters are quantifiable and precisely defined. • Trading systems are not universal Each market has its own nature, which can be studied based on its historical record. For example: • Trending markets , like SPY or Tesla, are driven by factors such as economic growth or market sentiment, making them ideal for systems that aim to capture directional moves. • Range-bound markets , like Forex, are influenced by central banks promoting stability, limiting extreme moves and favoring ranges under normal conditions. Applying a trending system to a pair like EUR/USD, which tends to consolidate, can lead to disappointing results. Similarly, using a mean-reversion system in a strongly directional market like the SPY ETF is illogical and usually ineffective. Plus, traditional markets have a structural bias favoring bulls over bears, which can significantly impact the performance of certain strategies. On the other hand, timeframe is a critical factor when developing and evaluating quantitative systems. In lower timeframes, volatility from news, emotions, or high-frequency trading makes it hard to apply trending systems. Instead, higher timeframes (H4, D, W) offer more stability, improving the performance of many systems by reducing market noise. • An effective quantitative trading system must be backed by a broad and detailed historical record The larger the volume of data analyzed, the greater the confidence in the system’s ability to produce predictable results in the future. A key aspect in developing quantitative trading systems is ensuring consistency in results. Consistency in a system’s performance across different timeframes (D, H4, H1) is an indicator of its robustness and adaptability. For example, a system that generates solid and stable returns across multiple timeframes shows greater reliability than one that only works well in a specific timeframe. • We should avoid trading systems with unstable equity curves or large drawdowns A quantitative trading system must be designed to generate consistent profits with controlled risk. That’s why it’s essential to avoid systems with unstable equity curves (erratic fluctuations in gains) or large drawdowns (maximum accumulated losses). These issues indicate a lack of robustness and can jeopardize the system’s long-term viability. • A high win rate doesn’t guarantee consistent profitability A common mistake among investors is assuming a high win rate ensures high and sustainable profitability. However, a quantitative trading system’s profitability depends on multiple factors beyond the win rate, such as the risk-reward ratio, market exposure, and operational costs. For example, trending systems can generate larger profits but often have lower win rates due to greater market exposure, while systems with high win rates may offer limited returns because of shorter exposure and accumulated costs from high trade volume. • Commissions and the number of trades must be factored into system testing Failing to include these costs in the analysis can create a misleading perception of the system’s profitability, artificially inflating results. Even a system with a stable and consistent equity curve doesn’t guarantee success if commissions aren’t considered, especially in strategies with low win rates or high trade volume. • The risk-reward ratio must be adapted to the system There’s no universal formula that guarantees profitability in all scenarios based solely on this parameter. However, using an inappropriate risk-reward ratio for the chosen system can lead to costly mistakes. For example, applying a tight (low) risk-reward ratio in trending systems, or a high risk-reward ratio in mean-reversion systems or those exploiting small patterns, is an inconsistency that often results in significant losses for traders. • About backtesting in TradingView When a system is quantified on the TradingView platform, by default, profits and losses are calculated relative to the percentage of volatility. This means our margin per trade will generate losses or gains based on price movement. For example, if our entry occurs on a bullish engulfing candle that closes above the EMA 20, and our SL is placed at the candle’s low, the losses from the entry point to the SL will be highly variable and depend on the volatility percentage, not on solid position management (like setting a 20% SL per entry, which would mean adjusting leverage). We could get three trades right in a row, and it’d only take the entry candle of the fourth trade to be huge for the losses to be disproportionate if the SL triggers. This is especially important to keep in mind when backtesting systems on low timeframes, where volatility is extremely low. Without accounting for leverage and fixed loss percentages per trade, we might discard highly profitable systems, since the platform—calculating gains and losses based on volatility percentage—will always show poor profitability. An inexperienced investor might face a system with a 60% win rate and a 1:1 risk-reward ratio, but if the backtesting is done on a 5-minute chart (where volatility is low), they’ll likely discard it due to the apparent poor profitability. Conclusions Developing effective quantitative systems requires an approach that integrates clear rules, rigorous testing, and a deep understanding of market dynamics. In upcoming articles, I’ll dive deeper into the topic, plus share my views and experience on other investment approaches.
Education
by Especulador96
1
Old Wounds, New Trades - Echoes of the Past... “I don’t know what’s wrong with me. Every time I take a loss, even a small one, I freeze. It’s like a switch flips and I feel off, I just can’t explain why” If you’ve ever felt that sudden wave of tension, self-doubt, or urgency that doesn’t quite fit the size of the trade… You’re not alone. Follow along. I hope this helps. BUT FIRST NOTE – This is a post on mindset and emotion. It’s not a trade idea or system designed to make you money. My intention is to help you preserve your capital, focus, and composure so you can trade your own system with calm and confidence. HERE’S WHAT HAPPENS You’re trading normally. Nothing dramatic. Then price moves against you. The heart rate spikes, breathing shortens, the body tenses. You hesitate or you overreact. Logically, it makes no sense. It’s just one trade. But the emotion feels bigger than the moment. That’s because it’s not just the market you’re responding to. It’s memory. WHAT’S REALLY GOING ON UNDERNEATH Your nervous system stores emotional imprints, moments of uncertainty, criticism, fear, failure. They don’t disappear; they get filed under “avoid this feeling.” When something in the present, like a losing trade hits a similar emotional frequency, the old file reopens. And you find yourself reacting. Not just to the market in the here and now but to an echo from the past. That echo might sound like: 🔹 “I can’t mess this up again.” 🔹 “I should’ve known better.” 🔹 “What if this proves I’m not cut out for it?” It’s not the trade that’s hurting. It’s the part of you that once felt unsafe, unseen, or not enough. HOW TO CATCH IT BEFORE IT RUNS YOU 1️⃣ Notice the size of your reaction. If it feels disproportionate, too intense for what just happened, that’s your cue. 2️⃣ Name the echo. Say quietly: “This is an old memory, not a new threat.” It separates the past from the present. 3️⃣ Ground your body. Unclench the jaw. Drop the shoulders. Breathe out longer than you breathe in. Remind your nervous system that this moment is safe. 4️⃣ Reframe the signal. The intensity isn’t weakness, it’s information. Your system is showing you where an old wound still seeks resolution. Trading doesn’t just reveal your skill. It reveals your history. And every emotional flashback you meet with awareness, is one less echo shaping your next trade.
Education
by soda8888
Copy Trading Made Me 60% Profit… Then Destroyed EverythingHave you ever heard about copy trading — that magic button promising you can earn profits just by following someone else’s trades? I’d heard it a hundred times, but I was skeptical. Still, I decided to test it myself — because if it really worked, it would mean there’s a shortcut to success in trading, right? My Real Experience in the Crypto Copy Trading World At first, I started small — just a test with a tiny amount of money. After one week, I couldn’t believe what I saw: +60% profit. That’s the kind of return some professional traders don’t make in an entire year. So I added more capital. And again — more profit. It was so consistent that for a short moment, I started thinking: “Maybe I don’t need to trade manually anymore… maybe this is it.” Until one random day, everything changed. Within hours, 60% of the total capital vanished. Not only the profits — but the entire account took a massive hit. Why Copy Trading Fails (Even When It Works for a While) After this happened, I started studying how professional traders approached this topic — including Ross Cameron’s own test of multiple copy-trade alert services. The conclusion was almost identical to my experience. 1. You’re Always Late By the time you receive the alert or your account copies the trade, the entry price has already changed. If the trade goes up, your profit is smaller. If it goes down, your loss is bigger. Latency kills consistency. 2. You Have No Control You can’t decide the risk per trade, the stop-loss, or the position size. Someone else does — and that means you’re exposed to risks you didn’t choose. 3. Liquidity and Spread Issues In crypto, when someone opens a large position on a low-cap coin with thin order books, the copy trades that follow open at much worse prices — higher if it’s a buy, lower if it’s a sell. In other words, their exit point becomes your entry point. 4. False Confidence and Dependence Even if the system makes money for a while, it teaches you nothing. You’re not becoming a better trader — you’re just outsourcing your decisions. And when it stops working, you have no skills to fall back on. 5. High-Risk Behavior of “Top” Traders Many of the accounts behind copy systems take massive risks and show extremely poor Sharpe ratios. They might look profitable short-term, but their equity curves often end the same way — a crash. Lessons Learned Copy trading gives you the illusion of control — the dream that someone else can do the hard work for you. But the truth is, you’re not participating in trading — you’re observing someone else’s gamble. The only sustainable way forward is independence: Learn the strategy Practice on a simulator Understand risk Build your own discipline That’s how you trade with confidence — not by copying trades, but by owning your decisions.
Education
by SkepticLab
1
Release the Pressure: Why Relaxed Traders Win MoreOne of the most overlooked psychological factors in trading is pressure — the silent force that makes you enter trades too early, exit too late, and misread what’s actually happening on the chart. The truth is simple: When you relax, you trade better. The Illusion of “Always Doing Something” Many traders feel that if they’re not in a trade, they’re missing out. The market becomes a constant test of patience — and silence between trades feels unbearable. That’s when poor decisions appear: forced entries, revenge trades, and overtrading to “feel productive.” But the market doesn’t reward effort; it rewards timing. Trading well often looks like doing nothing most of the time. You wait, you observe, and you strike when the setup aligns. This is where the relaxed mindset beats the pressured mindset every single time. Example: Gold (XAUUSD) Between 3960 and 4030 Let’s take gold as an example. As explained in my recent analysis, we have two clear levels to watch — 3960 and 4030. Price is currently trading in between. Even though it may look like it’s pressing upward and could form an ascending triangle, clarity only comes with a real breakout, not with anticipation. A pressured trader will often feel the urge to predict — to “get in early” before confirmation. But the calm trader simply waits. They know that between levels, price action is noise, not opportunity. And when clarity comes — either through a clean breakout or a rejection — the decision is obvious and stress-free. This is what “releasing the pressure” looks like in practice: You don’t force a trade. You let the market reveal the next step. Why Pressure Kills Performance Pressure doesn’t just come from the charts — it comes from expectations. The trader who needs to make x$ per day will subconsciously search for confirmation that a trade exists. Charts suddenly look clearer than they actually are. Bias replaces logic. And objectivity, which is the foundation of good trading, fades away. In reality, the more you need to make money from trading, the harder it becomes to do so. That’s not because the market is cruel — it’s because the human brain under stress stops processing probabilities correctly. The Paradox of Ease Every trader eventually experiences this paradox: The less you try to “make something happen,” the more naturally good trades appear. This isn’t mystical — it’s psychological. When the mind is calm, your ability to notice quality setups improves dramatically. You stop trying to control the market and start aligning with it. It’s the difference between chasing a wave and surfing one. Creating Space to Breathe The professional approach to trading is not about constant activity — it’s about creating the conditions where clarity thrives. That means reducing pressure in three ways: 1. Detach from daily profit goals. The market doesn’t care about your personal targets. Focus on setups, not outcomes. 2. Allow financial breathing room. When your rent, bills, and daily life depend on your next trade, emotional clarity disappears. Build a secondary income or savings buffer — not for luxury, but for mental freedom. 3 . Redefine success. A good trading day is not one with profit — it’s one with discipline. When you measure success by process, not by dollars, you take power back from the market. Final Thought Most traders lose not because they lack skill, but because they trade under pressure. The weight of expectation distorts perception, and the market punishes impatience. Release the pressure — mentally, financially, and emotionally. When you do, trading starts to flow the way it was meant to: Quietly, naturally, profitably.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
17
The Monty Hall Paradox in TradingMost traders think the Monty Hall paradox has nothing to do with markets. But every time you refuse to change your bias — it plays out right in your chart. At the beginning of October, I started looking for signs of a drop in gold. They came very late. Instead, from October 1st, gold rallied more than 5000 pips before dropping. I was aware of the Monty Hall paradox — and yet, I didn’t switch. And this post is not about why I didn’t switch. It’s about understanding the paradox itself, and how it quietly plays out in trading every single day. Because yes — gold eventually dropped, and it dropped hard. But before falling 5,000 pips, it first rose 5,000 pips — and before that rise even began, the market clearly opened a door just before breaking above 4,000 pips — a door I chose to ignore. That’s exactly what this article is about: recognizing when the market opens new doors, and understanding why switching — just like in the Monty Hall paradox — often gives you the better odds. 🎭 The Original Paradox The Monty Hall problem comes from an old game show called "Let’s Make a Deal ". There are three doors: behind one is a car, and behind the others are goats. You pick one door. The host, who knows what’s behind them, opens another door — always showing a goat. Then he asks: “Do you want to stay with your first choice or switch?” Most people stay But mathematically, you should switch — because the probability of winning jumps from 1/3 to 2/3 after that reveal. The host didn’t change the car’s position — he changed the information you have. And that’s what makes all the difference. If you’ve never heard of the original paradox, you might remember it from the film "21" with Kevin Spacey — the scene where he teaches probability through deception, using the Monty Hall setup to show how humans instinctively trust their first choice. That’s exactly what markets do: they give you partial information, make you feel confident, and then quietly shift the odds while you’re still defending your initial pick. 📊 The Trading Version In trading, there are no doors — only biases. But the logic is identical. When you open a trade, you’re making a probabilistic choice based on incomplete data. You think it’s 50–50 — up or down — but it’s not. You’re guessing direction, but also timing. In reality, your initial bias might have a 1/3 chance of being fully correct. Then the market — our version of Monty Hall — reveals new information: a failed breakout, a strong reversal candle, a macro shift, a sudden volume surge. That’s the door opening. And now you face the same question: “Do you stay with your first choice or switch?” 🧠 Why Most Traders Don’t Switch Because switching feels like admitting you were wrong. Ego and attachment to our analysis make us defend our initial position, even as evidence piles up against it. But the market doesn’t reward stubbornness — it rewards adaptation. Refusing to switch isn’t strength; it’s emotional inertia. 🔁 What “Switching” Really Means It doesn’t always mean reversing your trade. It can mean: - Cutting your loss early instead of waiting for stop loss - Closing a position that started “right” but begins behaving wrong. - Flipping your bias when the structure proves you wrong. - Or simply, pausing — accepting that the setup no longer fits the data. In each case, you’re doing what the smart contestant in Monty Hall does: You’re updating your probabilities as new information arrives. 💬 The Lesson The paradox isn’t about doors — it’s about humility. About understanding that the first choice you make in trading could end up not being the best one. The best traders don’t need to be right. They need to be flexible enough to become right later. So the next time the market “opens a door” — don’t get defensive. Recalculate. Reassess. Sometimes, switching is the only way to stay in the game. 🚀 Closing Thought The Monty Hall paradox isn’t about luck; it’s about using information wisely. The same rule applies to trading: If the market gives you new data, use it — even if it means admitting your first bias was wrong. Because the moment you stop defending your first choice, you finally start trading with probability — not pride. P.S. Although I did manage to make some profit on short trades, that’s beside the point. What truly matters is that the market clearly opened a door at the beginning of October — and even though I saw it, I ignored it. Yes, the market eventually dropped as initially expected, but that too is beside the point. This isn’t about being right in the end; it’s about recognizing when the market opens new doors and having the courage to walk through them.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
13
Psychology of Execution — The Discipline Behind ProfitabilityThe trader’s work is not to predict, but to identify and repeat statistical edges. We are not paid for time or effort — trading is not a conventional job where more work means more income. We are compensated for analytical precision and disciplined execution. Every trading system lives or dies by its risk management. Capital protection is not defensive; it is strategic — because only preserved capital can compound. Patience is not passivity; it is the highest expression of confidence in one’s own method. There is no consistent profit outside of a system with proven positive expectancy. The Stop Loss is not a punishment, but the technical boundary where an idea loses validity — respecting it preserves both capital and clarity. The Take Profit is not greed; it is discipline in harvesting the statistical payoff that maintains long-term profitability. Risk–Reward asymmetry is one of the most important principles of professional trading. However, it must be calibrated: win rate and R:R are inversely correlated in most systems. High R:R setups can be profitable even with low accuracy, but the real question is whether the trader’s psychology can endure long sequences of losses without emotional erosion. Market rumors and sentimental analysis are traps — they feed volatility, not precision. Professional traders operate from objective data, structure, and impartial interpretation, letting probability — not emotion — dictate the outcome. Trading is a craft of asymmetry, probability, and restraint. Profit is the by-product of method — not the reward for effort.
CME:6E1!Education
by philipemav
How to Analyze Your Trading Performance ScientificallyBy Skeptic – Founder of Skeptic Lab Most traders know how to analyze charts — but few know how to analyze themselves. A professional trader doesn’t just look at last month’s profit or loss; they examine consistency , volatility , and long-term stability. Earlier today, as part of my usual routine, I was reviewing my trading performance and reflecting on my recent results. That’s when I decided to share my analysis process with you :) — a framework built from personal study and research that might help others turn raw data into real improvement. In this tutorial , we’ll walk through a data-driven framework to evaluate your trading performance like a portfolio manager — using metrics such as cumulative return, volatility, Sharpe ratio, and trend analysis. 1. Data Collection: Turning Trades into Monthly Returns Instead of focusing on single trades, record your monthly returns in percentage terms. It can look as simple as this: This structure helps you see the bigger behavioral pattern behind your system — not just isolated results. “If you can’t describe what you’re doing as a process, you don’t know what you’re doing.” – W. Edwards Deming 2. Cumulative Return: The Power of Compounding Your total return isn’t the average of each month — it’s compounded over time: This shows whether your trading system has truly grown across time, not just fluctuated. A positive total means your system is resilient; a negative one signals structural issues. 3. Key Statistical Metrics Once your data is ready, calculate the following metrics — the backbone of every professional performance review: 4. Coefficient of Variation (CV) – Stability Indicator A CV below 1 implies your returns are stable and predictable. Above 1.5 suggests your system’s risk-to-reward profile is unstable — and may need adjustment. 5. Sharpe-like Ratio – Measuring Efficiency Assuming a zero risk-free rate, the Sharpe ratio measures how much return you generate per unit of volatility: Sharpe > 0.5 → healthy performance Sharpe > 1 → professional-level consistency Sharpe < 0.3 → the system needs review “It’s not about being right, it’s about being consistent.” – Mark Douglas 6. Trend Analysis – Detecting Growth or Decay Run a simple linear regression between time (month number) and return. Positive slope: system improving Negative slope: decline in edge or discipline Positive slope with high variance: profitable but unstable behavior Combining this with the Sharpe ratio gives a complete health check of your strategy. 📝Summary Table Data without action is noise. Use these insights to correct weaknesses and scale strengths: Identified Issue: High volatility → Practical Fix: Reduce position size in range-bound markets Identified Issue: Consecutive drawdowns → Practical Fix: Add trailing stops or break-even adjustments Identified Issue: Low average return → Practical Fix: Reassess position sizing or strategy fit Identified Issue: Overconfidence after wins → Practical Fix: Apply daily or weekly risk caps 🧩 Final Thoughts Analyzing your performance is not just about profits — it’s about understanding your patterns . By measuring Sharpe, CV, and trend, you can answer three crucial questions: Is my growth consistent or random? Is my risk proportional to my return? Can I replicate this performance? If the answer is yes, you’re not just improving your system — you’re evolving as a trader :) 🩵If you found this tutorial helpful, give it a boost and share it with your fellow traders. Let’s grow together, not alone! Happy trading, and see you in the next tutorial ! 💪🔥
Education
by SkepticLab
1
The Billy Big Balls MomentA trader reached out to me by direct message here on Trading View highlighting a challenge that many of us face from time to time. We’re talking about self sabotage. That moment you know what to do - but do something entirely different and get a result that frustrates the **** out of you. Follow along, I hope this helps. BUT FIRST NOTE – This is a post on mindset and emotion. It’s not a trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. My intention is to help you preserve your capital, focus, and composure so you can trade your own system with calm and confidence. Here's a scenario you might be familiar with... You nail a sequence of trades. Precision. Flow. Everything lines up. And then something flips. You start pushing harder, sizing up, breaking your own rules. A few minutes later, you’re staring at a screen wondering, “What the hell just happened?” It’s not lack of discipline nor is it a technical problem. You have an emotional pattern that hasn’t been mapped out yet. This pattern has roots into your subconscious and it’s sabotaging your efforts. WHATS REALLY HAPPENING AND WHERE DOES THE DRIVER REALLY COME FROM When you start winning, your brain gets flooded with dopamine , the chemical of reward and anticipation. If your nervous system has ever learned that success leads to loss, losing control, losing safety, losing connection it quietly associates “winning” with risk . The mind says, “Let’s keep this going.” Deeper down though is the silent warning … “This isn’t safe.” Doesn’t sound logical right? It’s not. It’s emotional. Deeply embedded in your psyche and activated whenever the mind feels that familiar feeling again. The mind wants to go forward - the body wants to intervene. And so you get an internal split. A moment of pressure that your mind just has to resolve. And the fastest way the subconscious knows to relieve that pressure… is to end the win. So you do something impulsive, not because you want to fail, but because deep down, you're trying to protect yourself or believe or not, you might be even trying to punish yourself. Weird stuff happens in the subconscious. That’s why the sabotage happens right after a run of success. It’s not logic breaking down. It’s the mind trying to restore an emotional equilibrium. HOW TO CATCH IT BEFORE IT HAPPENS Listen. The moment you size up impulsively is not random. It’s a repeatable signal that your emotional system has been triggered. You can’t fix what you can’t see - so start tracking it. 1. Notice your signature cue. For some, it’s tension in the chest or a fidgety feeling of restlessness. For others, it’s the need to “just check one more chart.” For you it might be something else. Pay attention and start to become aware of what comes up for you. 2. Map the pattern Keep a short log : what happens right before you go rogue? Notice the time of day, physical tension, thoughts. You are looking for a repeatable sequence. 3. Identify your threshold There’s always a tipping point where clarity narrows: your breath shortens, attention tunnels or you start fantasising about bigger gains. That’s your signal. 4. Interrupt the pattern and create a recovery plan (as you notice the cues) Physically step away from the desk. Exhale through the mouth long, slow, 6 seconds. Let your eyes rest on something still . This shifts the nervous system out of fight-or-flight and back into focus. This isn’t about controlling emotion. Its about expanding your capacity so emotion doesn't control you. Next time you’re on a hot streak, notice where focus ends and thrill begins. That’s the edge that makes or breaks the run.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by soda8888
10
Understanding Margin & Mechanics in Futures MarketsBefore you trade Futures, it’s essential to understand how these markets operate, especially how margin, leverage, and settlement work. This insight helps you manage risk, stay capital-efficient, and avoid unnecessary surprises. Margin Basics Every future position requires margin. It’s important to note margin is not an added cost per contract, margin is a good-faith deposit or can be thought of as a “performance bond” to ensure you can meet your obligations. There are three main types: Initial Margin: The exchange sets this as a percentage of the contract’s notional value based on a wide variety of factors including volatility, size of the contract, and average market movement. Maintenance Margin: The minimum balance required to keep your position open. If your balance drops below this, you’ll get a margin call. Day Trading Margin: Set by your broker, often a fraction of the exchanges Initial Margin. Day Trading margins can provide more leverage, but in turn this comes with more risk. Leverage in Action Futures are leveraged products. With just a small amount of capital, you can control a much larger position. For example, with the E-mini S&P 500 trading at 6800, one contract has a notional value of $50 x 6800 = $340,000. We illustrate this below using initial margin and day margins examples. Leverage using Initial Margin: Leverage = Notional Value / Initial margin required Example: For 1 Long ES contract, with initial margin $23429. Leverage = 340,000 /23429 Leverage = 14.5x Leverage using Day Trading Margin: Leverage = Notional Value / Day margin required For 1 Long ES contract, with day margin at $1000. Leverage = 340,000/1000 Leverage = 340x **As the notional value rises or falls, so does leverage. Leverage is a double-edged sword it can work for you and against you. Higher leverage increases the risk of gains as well as losses. Depending on your margin, you might only need a few thousand dollars to take that trade. While this enhances your buying power, it also increases risk, as losses could exceed your initial deposit. Mark-to-Market & Daily Settlements Futures are marked to market daily. This means your P&L is updated at the end of each session based on the day’s closing price. Gains are credited to your account, and losses are debited, helping to ensure real-time risk management and capital adequacy. Physical vs. Cash Settlement When a contract expires, there are two possible outcomes: Physical Delivery: You receive or deliver the actual commodity. Example: An oil producer secures a price of $62.00 per barrel through a long futures position. At contract expiration, the producer is obligated to take delivery of 1,000 barrels, which represents $62,000 in total value. If market prices rise to $80.00 per barrel, the producer can sell the physical oil at an $18.00 per barrel gain (before accounting for commissions and futures and other related fees). Cash Settlement: No goods change hands, and your account is adjusted based on the final settlement price set by the exchange. This is common in financial contracts like the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). Understanding margin and leverage is fundamental to trading futures effectively. These mechanics define how much risk you’re taking, how your capital is allocated, and how your account is managed daily. At EdgeClear, our mission is to help traders develop a deeper understanding of the markets and the tools that move them. Follow us on TradingView for more Trade Ideas like this one, or connect with our team to learn how you can trade futures with confidence, precision, and the right guidance.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by EdgeClear