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GOLD: market at a crossroads after the impulseOn the 1H chart, gold remains in an uptrend channel, but after testing the 3545–3550 zone, a corrective pullback is possible. The red lines represent a projected head-and-shoulders scenario, but the pattern is not yet confirmed - it remains only a forecast. Key levels to watch: 3510 as initial support and 3480 as a deeper target if price breaks the channel to the downside. As long as price holds above, the broader trend remains bullish. From a fundamental perspective , weak ADP employment data provided short-term support, yet the market reaction was muted since dovish Fed expectations are already priced in. Stronger dollar data or rising Treasury yields could put renewed pressure on gold. Fed commentary in the coming days will be crucial for market direction. Tactical plan: monitor the 3545–3550 zone where sellers may step in. A confirmed break below 3510 opens the way to 3480, but without a completed head-and-shoulders, the move remains speculative. Gold is notorious for punishing premature shorts, so caution is warranted.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades
US job numbers this week. Keeping an eye on USD and US indicesWe are keeping a close eye on the US job numbers this week, as those fall into the Fed's spotlight. The expectations are low, so it would be interesting to see if the numbers can get even lower. Let's take a look. MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX FX_IDC:EURUSD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
NAS100 - Stock Market, in the Work Week!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its short-term descending channel. If this channel is maintained and the specified range is reached, a close sale can be made with a suitable reward. Economists anticipate that customs tariffs will push consumer prices higher while slowing economic growth in the coming months. Inflation is expected to accelerate, though not to the extreme levels of the 1970s when the term “stagflation” was coined to describe the combination of high inflation and economic stagnation. Unlike a recession—where the economy contracts and prices fall—stagflation features rising prices despite economic weakness. The U.S. economy could be heading toward a 1970s-style stagflationary environment, though analysts believe this time it will be far less severe. Many experts argue that the U.S. is on the verge of a period of sluggish growth paired with accelerating inflation. The root cause lies in President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which simultaneously raise consumer costs and weigh on the labor market. However, economists expect this inflationary wave to be much milder than the double-digit annual increases that strained household budgets in the 1970s. On the corporate front, Nvidia released its second-quarter earnings last week. Revenue reached $46.7 billion, exceeding analysts’ expectations of $46.23 billion. The company’s data center unit—the main growth driver—generated $41.1 billion, slightly below the $41.29 billion forecast. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.05, while the adjusted gross margin stood at 72.7%. Looking ahead, Nvidia projected third-quarter revenue of around $54 billion, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%. Its board also approved an additional $60 billion share repurchase program. Regarding China, the company reported zero sales of H20 chips to Chinese clients during Q2 and stated that no shipments are planned for that market in the near future. In the earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that the Chinese market could present a $50 billion opportunity for Nvidia this year. He estimated annual growth in China at nearly 50%, noting that the country is the world’s second-largest computing market and home to half of global AI researchers. Huang stressed that maintaining a presence in China is vital for the company’s long-term future, even amid ongoing political and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. On the monetary policy side, UBS warned that weakening the independence of the Federal Reserve—especially following Trump’s threat to remove Fed board member Lisa Cook—could have significant economic consequences. In its analysis of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, UBS described it as “classic Powell”: hinting at the possibility of a September rate cut to offset tariff effects but lacking a broader long-term framework for the evolving economy. UBS emphasized that failure to strongly defend Fed independence could heighten political risks and destabilize markets.The bank warned that if the central bank comes under political influence, potential outcomes include the reemergence of inflationary instability, a one-percentage-point increase in real borrowing costs, and negative effects on fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings, and speculative activity. This week begins with one fewer trading day due to the Labor Day holiday, yet the economic calendar remains packed, with the labor market at the center of attention. On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August will be released, followed by the JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday. Thursday will be particularly important, bringing the August ADP private payrolls report, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM Services Index—all at once. These data points are especially significant given the recent large revisions to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which have renewed focus on the degree of convergence or divergence between ADP and NFP figures. Historically, ADP and NFP reports have often diverged, leaving traders mispositioned when relying too heavily on ADP data. A recent example occurred in July, when ADP reported a decline of 33,000 jobs, while NFP the following day showed a gain of 147,000—well above expectations of 110,000. However, after NFP revisions, the actual trend proved more consistent with ADP’s numbers. The most important event of the week will take place on Friday: the release of the August U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Investors will be monitoring it closely, as any signs of labor market weakness could reinforce expectations for a Fed rate cut in mid-September. Despite growing stagflation risks and heightened market volatility, Bank of America (BofA) suggested that autumn could be an attractive entry point for bullish investors. The bank cautioned that while volatility may exert short-term downward pressure, potential pullbacks could serve as buying opportunities. The VIX volatility index fell to its lowest level of the year following Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole. Still, concerns about stretched stock valuations, a potential AI-driven bubble, and political risks tied to Fed independence suggest that this calm may not last.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Gold is in for a big week?!Gold is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and near the bottom of its medium-term ascending channel (breakout or no break is yet fully confirmed). A correction towards demand levels would provide us with a better risk-reward buying position, and if it rises, we could consider shorting it in supply levels. In the past week, gold experienced two distinct phases in its price movement: a strong upward trend in the first half that stalled at key resistance levels, leading the market into a more cautious mode. The latest surveys reveal a clear division among gold analysts—some foresee a bearish outlook, while others prefer to remain neutral and wait for further signals. Meanwhile, retail traders remain optimistic about gold’s short-term trajectory and emphasize the continuation of its upward trend. Analysts at Commerzbank believe the gold market is currently directionless and searching for a clear trend. In their view, recent news around potential trade agreements has weakened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. They have adopted a neutral stance in the short term, stating that gold prices are near their upper limit with limited room for further gains at the moment. Conversely, some experts are confident in the continuation of gold’s bullish trend. Rich Checkan, President and CEO of Asset Strategies International, declared: “Gold is in an uptrend. Today’s pullback is setting the stage for next week’s rally. If the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets expectations and holds rates steady, both gold and silver will keep climbing. And if the Fed exceeds expectations by cutting rates, we’ll see an even stronger surge in both metals. Either way, the direction is upward.” At the same time, other analysts remain cautious about the trend’s sustainability. Mark Leibovit, editor of VR Metals/Resource Letter, warned that the U.S. dollar may be forming a bottom, which could exert downward pressure on gold and calls for increased caution from investors. Despite continued political pressure from President Trump, the Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Central bankers have stated that they want to observe the economic effects of tariffs before making any adjustments. Although some Fed officials are moving away from the “wait and see” approach, analysts still believe the Fed will leave rates unchanged this week—though markets are closely watching for any signals suggesting that rate cuts could begin as early as September. Meanwhile, China’s gold consumption in the first half of 2025 declined, though the drop was less severe than in previous years. The primary reason was increased demand for gold as a safe-haven investment, which partially offset reduced jewelry purchases due to high prices. According to data from the China Gold Association, a government-affiliated body, gold consumption fell by 3.54% year-over-year in the first half of the year to 505,205 tons. In comparison, Q1 saw a 5.96% annual decline, and the same period in 2024 recorded a 5.61% drop. The association stated that growing geopolitical tensions and ongoing economic uncertainty have strengthened gold’s role as a store of value and safe asset, prompting a significant rise in private investment in bars and coins. Gold bar and coin purchases—a key indicator of safe-haven demand—surged by 23.7% to 264,242 tons, accounting for 52% of total consumption and overtaking jewelry as the largest consumption segment. Meanwhile, gold jewelry demand fell by 26% to 199,826 tons, reflecting weakened consumer interest due to high prices. Still, the association noted that lighter jewelry products with unique designs and higher value-added features remain popular. Additionally, official data from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) showed that the central bank increased its gold reserves in June for the eighth consecutive month. On the supply side, domestic gold production fell by 0.31% year-over-year to 179,083 tons in the first half of the year, while output from imported sources rose by 2.29% to 76,678 tons. Altogether, China’s total gold production grew by 0.44%, reaching 252,761 tons.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
Jobs vs politics: GBPUSD caught in crossfire Two major stories are developing on either side of the Atlantic. ADP reported a 33 k fall in June private payrolls (consensus +95 k). It is the third straight miss and sets the tone for Thursday’s early Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, brought forward because of the 4 July holiday. In the UK, speculation is growing around the position of Chancellor Rachel Reeves after an emotional appearance in Parliament. Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to confirm whether she would remain in the role, sparking questions over the government’s fiscal direction. The political uncertainty helped accelerate the sell-off in GBPUSD, which has fallen sharply from recent highs near 1.38. The latest candles show a long lower wick around 1.3600, indicating that buyers are attempting to defend the area. If this support fails to hold, the next downside target lies near 1.3485–1.3500, which acted as a base for the late-June rally.
ECONOMICS:GBGD
by BlackBull_Markets
XAUUSD - Gold Awaits Employment Data!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If gold corrects towards the demand range, it can be bought in the short term with appropriate risk-reward. A break of the resistance range will also pave the way for gold to rise to $3,400. In April, the U.S. labor market demonstrated resilience and flexibility, with job openings climbing to 7.4 million—exceeding analysts’ expectations. Hiring reached its fastest pace since May 2024, as employers brought on 5.6 million new workers. While these upbeat figures surprised many, some economists remained cautious, warning that ongoing tariff policies could weigh on the labor market later this year. Recent labor market data have featured unexpected results, mostly leaning positive. According to Tuesday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job openings in April surpassed forecasts, rising from 7.2 million in March to 7.4 million. Despite the encouraging nature of the data, the overall labor market picture has not shifted dramatically. Month-to-month fluctuations aside, the broader trend reflects a slowdown compared to the post-pandemic period when demand for workers was extremely high. Economists continue to expect that the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign will further hinder job creation in the months ahead. Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary: “These figures still reflect a gradually slowing but stable job market. The jump in openings is more indicative of normal data volatility than a genuine surge in new positions. Likewise, the increase in hiring isn’t a strong recovery signal, as hiring remains within recent weak ranges.” Alison Sriwastava, labor economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, added: “The data show that U.S. employers had enough confidence to maintain more job openings in April than in March—whether through strong planning, resilient supply chains, or a bit of luck. But just because employers had a good month doesn’t mean they can sustain that success indefinitely, especially given the continued uncertainty and volatility.” Meanwhile, the White House confirmed that it had sent letters to several countries asking them to submit their best trade offers by Wednesday. Progress on trade agreements since “Liberation Day” has been sluggish and challenging, and now all eyes are on what the Trump administration will do next. Reuters obtained the letter, which asked countries to present their best proposals regarding tariffs, purchase quotas for U.S. goods, and plans to eliminate non-tariff barriers. However, according to the New York Post, immediate retaliation or action from the White House should not be assumed. Citing a source familiar with the matter, the letter’s purpose was described as an assessment of trade partners’ progress rather than a call for final offers. In the diplomatic arena, newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to meet with Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday following weeks of consultations. Key topics on the agenda include the war in Ukraine, Middle East crises, and trade policy. Merz, who recently took charge of Europe’s largest economy, has made rounds through major European capitals and now seeks to ease tensions with the Trump administration. The main areas of contention between Washington and Berlin involve trade imbalances, support for Ukraine, and domestic policy disputes. This meeting presents a rare opportunity for Merz to voice his positions directly to Trump—unlike his predecessor, who never received a White House invitation.Nevertheless, Merz faces numerous challenges, ranging from far-right political pressures at home to clashes over tech companies on both sides of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum officially took effect at 12:01 AM Eastern Time on Wednesday. These now-doubled tariffs apply to all trading partners except the United Kingdom. As the only country to have reached a preliminary trade deal with the U.S. so far, the U.K. will remain under a 25% tariff until at least July 9. The executive order signed by Trump on Tuesday stated that the action is intended to “more effectively counter foreign nations that continue to sell excess and underpriced steel and aluminum in the U.S. market, undermining the competitiveness of America’s domestic steel and aluminum industries.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Gold is on the verge of a very important week!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I predict the path ahead for gold to be upward and if the resistance level is broken, we can look for buying opportunities. If gold corrects, we can also buy it with a reward at an appropriate risk. Gold prices experienced a mild decline over the past week, with market sentiment shaped less by fundamental shifts and more by mixed messages and scattered commentary around tariffs.Despite the noise, many traders chose to rely on data and technical charts rather than reacting emotionally—data that painted a more subdued picture than the headlines suggested. Rich Checkan, CEO of Asset Strategies International, responded confidently in a recent survey, predicting further gains in gold. “The trajectory for gold is clearly upward. Prices have stabilized around the $3,300 level and appear ready for a new rally, especially if the appellate court’s ruling on tariffs is upheld,” he said. Checkan also pointed to another macroeconomic factor that could support gold: “A new tax bill, described as large and costly, is set to be voted on in the Senate soon. If passed, it will likely widen the budget deficit, which historically leads to increased liquidity and rising inflation—a favorable environment for gold.” On Friday, the PCE inflation report showed easing price pressures, though not enough to put the Federal Reserve at ease. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year in April—matching expectations and slightly down from 2.7% the previous month. The headline PCE also increased 2.1% annually, just below the forecast of 2.2%. The key point: these data reflect the first month in which Trump’s new tariffs were active, yet there’s little evidence so far that they’ve caused inflation to rise. Still, the disinflationary trend remains sluggish and distant from the Fed’s 2% target. In its latest minutes, the Fed warned that inflation may prove more persistent than previously thought. Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, despite the seemingly positive PCE numbers, issued a cautionary note with four key insights: • The inflationary impact of tariffs is expected to begin showing up from May and be fully reflected in June’s data. This could accelerate goods price increases and disrupt the path of disinflation. • Last year’s monthly PCE figures were particularly weak (May: 0%, June: 0.1%, July: 0.2%). As these drop out of the annual calculation, even if monthly gains remain steady, YoY rates could rise mathematically. • The three-month average for Core PCE from May to October 2024 was only 0.1%. If upcoming monthly figures hit 0.2%, annual disinflation could stall or even reverse. • While the latest report is encouraging, the effects of tariffs and the removal of last year’s weak data could complicate the inflation trajectory. Looking ahead, market attention will focus heavily on a suite of crucial U.S. labor market indicators. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is due Tuesday, private sector employment data (ADP) on Wednesday, and jobless claims on Thursday. However, the most anticipated release will be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for May—widely viewed as a key factor influencing rate expectations. Alongside labor data, markets will also watch other critical economic reports. The ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday and the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday will offer broader insight into U.S. business activity. In the realm of monetary policy, interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) and the European Central Bank (Thursday) are expected to trigger notable movements in the currency and gold markets.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD: Gold will continue its upward trend?!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. The continued rise of gold towards the supply zones will provide a position to sell it with a suitable risk reward. The performance of commodities in 2024 was highly diverse. While investors turned to gold as a hedge against inflation, other commodities like iron ore experienced declines due to weak economic growth in China, the world’s largest metals consumer. It seems that the story this year will resemble that of the previous year. Sabrina Chaudhry, Head of Commodities Analysis at BMI Research, stated, “Commodities will generally face pressure in 2025,” adding that the strong US dollar will limit demand for dollar-priced commodities. Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault, a gold investment services company, said investors are optimistic about gold and silver in 2025 due to pessimism surrounding geopolitical conditions and rising government debt, emphasizing gold’s role as a risk hedge. Analysts at J.P. Morgan also predict that gold prices will rise, especially if U.S. policies take a more “disruptive” turn through increased tariffs, heightened trade tensions, and greater risks to economic growth. Gold recorded its best annual performance in over a decade last year. According to FactSet data, gold bullion prices rose by approximately 26% in 2024, driven by central bank purchases as well as retail investment. Data indicates that China purchased gold for the second consecutive month in December. The country’s gold reserves increased to 73.29 million ounces in December, up from 72.96 million ounces in November. China’s gold buying pace has nearly doubled, with December’s 0.33 million-ounce increase significantly surpassing the 0.16 million-ounce rise in November. The value of China’s gold reserves is now estimated at around $191 billion, while its total foreign exchange reserves stand at $3.2 trillion. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has postponed its previous forecast of gold prices reaching $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025 to mid-2026. This adjustment is attributed to expectations of a slower pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A slower reduction in interest rates in 2025 is likely to limit demand for gold-backed Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). As a result, analysts such as Lina Thomas and Dan Stryon have forecasted gold prices to reach $2,910 per ounce by the end of the year. In a note, they mentioned that weaker-than-expected ETF inflows in December — attributed to reduced uncertainty following the U.S. elections — also contributed to a lower starting point for prices in the new year. Analysts commented, “Counteracting forces — reduced speculative demand and increased central bank purchases — have effectively neutralized each other, keeping gold prices range-bound in recent months.” They further emphasized that central bank appetite for gold purchases remains a key driver for prices in the long term. Analysts projected, “Looking ahead, we expect monthly gold purchases to average 38 tons through mid-2026.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
2024 ADP Jobs Created Overstated by Near 550K?Recently, the September ADP Employment Report was published. (You can download historical data from the link above.) After the report was released, TVC:DXY , TVC:US02Y , TVC:US10Y , and TVC:US30Y rose, suggesting that the market perceived the report as strong. However, the details of the report tell me the opposite. Note, the data being published is seasonally adjusted (SA). However, it is possible to obtain the raw, non-seasonally adjusted (non-SA) data from the website above. I calculated the number of jobs created from the beginning of the year until September (inclusive) for both non-SA and SA data and determined the differences between these two values. You can find my spreadsheet here: www.icloud.com A screenshot of the results is also shown in the chart. As you can see, in typical years, the difference between jobs created from the start of the year through September for non-SA and SA is around 1.1M . Non-SA figures are usually higher because the last quarter tends to be weak for job creation. However, 2024 is quite different. The 2024 SA total jobs created is larger than expected by about 550K jobs . If we adjust by removing 550K reported SA jobs from 2024, the difference between non-SA and SA jobs would become approximately 1.1M, which is typical for a regular year. Why is this significant? Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is nearing a recession. Thus, this unusual job creation pattern is very suspicious. The published SA ADP employment numbers may be masking underlying economic weakness. Even with rate cut(s), I expect that the last quarter of 2024 will be weaker for job creation compared to a typical year. Therefore, I anticipate significant revisions to ADP employment data around December or January.
ECONOMICS:USEC
by eugene_sea
ECB Rate Cut Looms: EUR/USD Set to Slide?Given the increasing likelihood that the ECB will cut rates before the Fed, further EUR/USD depreciation could be anticipated in the coming days/ weeks. A move below the 100-day moving average would have traders looking toward the 200-day moving average of 1.0853. However, weaker jobs data from the US this week is tempering this expectation, which means some upside targets can be charted still. If bulls maintain control, EUR/USD may test the June high of 1.0916, followed by the three peaks of March, before reaching the crucial 1.1000 level. The JOLTs job openings report showed a decline of 296,000 from the previous month, dropping to 8.059 million in April 2024. This is the lowest level since February 2021 and below the market consensus of 8.34 million. The ADP Employment Change report revealed that private US hiring in May increased by 152,000, falling short of the estimates of 175,000 and below April’s figure of 188,000. Next up is the NonFarm Payrolls report on Friday. For the exact date and time, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to iCloud, Google, or Outlook to get alerts directly to your inbox, enabling you to plan your positions in advance.
by BlackBull_Markets
xauusd ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT REPORTADP is performs payroll services for its clients. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government's Labour Market Report. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. FORECAST 173K PREVIOUS 192K ACTUAL 152K the data released is less than forecast and also less than previous report, which is too much bearish for dollar. its impact may show up after the us market is opened
OANDA:XAUUSD
by realmillionairefx
Dollar Watch: JOLTs, ADP, NFP Dollar Watch: JOLTs, ADP, NFP It's US jobs week. Which gives us at least three trading opportunities, scattered out nicely over the whole week. First is the JOLTs Job Openings report. Second is the ADP Employment Change report. Finally, we have the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Let's look at what happened last month: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs. Economists forecast by TradingEconomics had estimated 240,000 jobs. Another huge miss in the NFP report this month could weaken the dollar. The market seems poised to interpret any indication as a signal that the Federal Reserve might cut rates sooner than anticipated. And even with a weaker-than-expected NFP, the market might just be looking at the headline. JPMorgan Chase highlighted during last month's report that "other employment indicators suggest there is no imminent weakening in the labor market." Additionally, these figures are preliminary and often revised in subsequent weeks. For instance, March’s nonfarm payroll gains were revised up to 315,000 from 300,000.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
British pound shrugs as Construction PMI misses estimateThe British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2582 in the North American session, down 0.10%. The UK Construction PMI ticked lower to 45.5 in November, compared to 45.6 in October and shy of the consensus estimate of 46.3. The construction sector has been in contraction for most of the year and the November print marked a third straight month in contraction. The weak housing market has resulted in a decrease in house building and chilled activity in the construction industry. There was better news from the UK Services PMI on Tuesday, which was revised higher to 50.9 in November, up from the preliminary estimate of 50.5. The PMI accelerated from the October print of 49.5 and indicated expansion for the first time in four months, with a reading above the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion. The Bank of England has held rates at 5.0% since August, leading to growing speculation that the BoE is done with rate hikes. This has led to expectations of rate cuts in 2024, but Governor Bailey pushed back against such expectations today, stating that interest rates would need to stay at current levels for an "extended period to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis". This was a very clear message that the central bank plans to stick with the "table mountain" approach (higher for longer) and is not considering rate cuts. Inflation fell to 4.6% in October, a sharp drop from the 6.7% gain in decline. Still, that is more than double the 2% target and the BoE is unlikely to trim rates until inflation is significantly lower. In the US, the ADP employment report showed little change in the November report. ADP is not a very reliable indicator for job growth but is nonetheless closely monitored as it precedes nonfarm payrolls by just two days. ADP eased to 103,000 in November, slightly lower than the downwardly revised 106,000 in October and well off the consensus estimate of 130,000. Nonfarm payrolls is expected to rise to 185,000 in November, up from 150,000 in October. There is resistance at 1.2624 and 1.2678 1.2536 and 1.2482 are the next support levels
by OANDA
🔥 XAUUSD : Wanna Know more About ADP ? (READ THE CAPTION)First of all , let's have a look on the TVC:GOLD Chart ! As you can see, based on the latest gold price analysis, we saw that the price, as we expected, was accompanied by a further drop and was able to correct until $2009! In the last 2 days, we saw the price rise to $2149 and then a heavy drop of 1373 pips to the range of $2009! Based on the assumptions of the previous analysis, we expected that if this FALL continues, we will see the price reach $1993 as the first bearish target! As long as the price trades below the specified FVG range, we still expect gold to fall further, but note that there is a liquidity gap in the range of $2040 to $2072, which I expect to be filled in the short term and after If we witness the stabilization of the price below this range, we can expect the price to drop to lower prices such as $1993 and $1939! Now It's Time for analyzinf the ADP news ! What is ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and its effects on the Forex market and Gold Price ? ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is an economic indicator that shows the monthly change in the number of employed people in the private and non-farm sector of the US. This indicator is based on the payroll data of about 400,000 private companies and is released two days before the official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Therefore, this indicator is considered as a preview of the US labor market situation and can have a significant impact on the Forex market and Gold Price. The impact of ADP data on the Forex market and Gold Price depends on several factors. First, it should be compared with the economists’ forecast. If the ADP data is higher than the forecast, it means a stronger employment growth in the US private sector and a sign of strengthening the US economy. This can increase the probability of interest rate hike by the US central bank (FED) and consequently strengthen the US dollar against other currencies. Conversely, if the ADP data is lower than the forecast, it means a weaker employment growth in the US private sector and a sign of weakening the US economy. This can decrease the probability of interest rate hike by the FED and consequently weaken the US dollar against other currencies. Second, it should be compared with the official NFP report. If both the ADP and NFP data are higher or lower than the forecast, it means a consistency between the two indicators and a similar impact on the Forex market and Gold Price. But if the ADP and NFP data are different from the forecast, it means a discrepancy between the two indicators and a contradictory impact on the Forex market and Gold Price. Generally, the NFP report is more attention-grabbing than the ADP report and can have a stronger impact. Third, it should be compared with the overall market conditions and other economic events. If the market is in a risk-on mode, it means a preference for investing in high-risk and high-return assets such as currencies of strong economies and stocks. In this case, a strong ADP data can stimulate the market and weaken the US dollar. Conversely, if the market is in a risk-off mode, it means a preference for investing in low-risk and low-return assets such as the US dollar and Gold. In this case, a weak ADP data can scare the market and strengthen the US dollar. Of course, it should be noted that the market conditions may change under the influence of other economic events such as political decisions, social movements, health crises, etc. and these factors should also be considered. In summary, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is an important economic indicator that can have direct and indirect effects on the Forex market and Gold Price. Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
12
USD/CAD steady ahead of Canada, US job reportsThe Canadian dollar is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3740, up 0.03%. The week wraps up with US and Canadian employment reports, which could mean volatility from the Canadian dollar during the North American session. The US releases nonfarm payrolls, which had a massive September and crushed expectations with a gain of 336,000. The markets are projecting a modest gain for October, with a market consensus of 170,000. The ADP Employment Change report, which isn’t considered a reliable gauge for nonfarm payrolls but is still closely watched, posted a weak gain of 113,000 in October, well below the market consensus of 150,000 and following the September reading of 89,000. Will nonfarm payrolls follow suit or will we see another hot release? The US dollar has declined against the majors since the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates for a second straight time. Fed Chair Powell tried to sound hawkish and reiterated that rate hikes remain on the table, but the markets are in a dovish mood and believe that rates may have peaked. If the nonfarm employment release follows ADP and misses expectations, it would likely mean the end of the current tightening cycle and I would expect the US dollar to decline after the release. Conversely, a strong non-farm payrolls report would support the Fed's stance that rate hikes remain on the table and would likely translate into strong gains for the US dollar following the release. The Fed will also be keeping an eye on wage growth, a driver of inflation. Wages rose 0.2% m/m in September and the market estimate for October stands at 0.3%. On an annualized basis, wage growth is expected to ease to 4.0% in October, down from 4.2% in September. Canada's employment is projected to ease to 22,500 in October, compared to 63,800 in September, which marked an eight-month high. The labour market has remained strong despite the Bank of Canada's aggressive tightening, and a weak employment reading would boost the case for another pause from the BoC and could weigh on the Canadian dollar. 1.3730 is a weak support level. Below, there is support at 1.3660 There is resistance at 1.3805 and 1.3950
by OANDA
ADP Automatic Data Processing Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold ADP here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADP Automatic Data Processing prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 240usd strike price in the money Calls with an expiration date of 2023-11-17, for a premium of approximately $7.50. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:ADPLong
by TopgOptions
USD/CAD shrugs after soft nonfarm payrollsThe Canadian dollar is showing limited movement on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3360, up 0.06%. Canadian and US job numbers were soft today, but the Canadian dollar's reaction has been muted. After a stellar job report in June, the July numbers were dreadful. Canada's economy shed 6,400 jobs in July, compared to a 59, 900 gain in June. Full-time employment added a negligible 1,700 jobs, following a massive 109,600 in June. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5%, up from 5.4%. Perhaps the most interesting data was wage growth, which jumped 5% y/y in June, climbing from 3.9% in May. The rise is indicative of a tight labour market and will complicate the Bank of Canada's fight to bring inflation down to the 2% target. It was deja vous all over again, as nonfarm payrolls failed to follow the ADP employment report with a massive gain. In June, a huge ADP reading fuelled speculation that nonfarm payrolls would also surge, and the same happened this week. Both times, nonfarm payrolls headed lower, a reminder that ADP is not a reliable precursor to the nonfarm payrolls report. July nonfarm payrolls dipped to 187,000, very close to June reading of 185,000 (downwardly revised from 209,000). This marks the lowest level since December 2020. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, down from 3.6%. Wage growth stayed steady at 4.4%, above the consensus estimate of 4.2%. What's interesting and perhaps frustrating for the Fed, is that the jobs report is sending contradictory signals about the strength of the labour market. Job growth is falling, but the unemployment rate has dropped and wage growth remains strong. With different metrics in the jobs report telling a different story, it will be difficult for the Fed to rely on this employment report as it determines its path for future rate decisions. There is resistance at 1.3324 and 1.3394 1.3223 and 1.3182 are providing support
by OANDA
New Zealand dollar sinks after soft jobs reportThe New Zealand dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6093, down 0.91%. Earlier, NZD/USD touched a low of 0.6091, its lowest level since June 30th. The New Zealand labour market has been tight, despite aggressive tightening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Wednesday's employment report for the second quarter showed some softening, which has extended the New Zealand dollar's losses. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% in the first quarter and above the consensus estimate of 3.5%. Wage growth eased to 4.3%, below the 4.5% reading in Q1 and the estimate of 4.4%. These numbers point to a weaker labour market, but Employment Change rose 1.0%, up from 0.8% in Q1 and above the estimate of 0.5%. The mixed numbers show that the labour market may have lost a step but still remains strong enough to bear further rate hikes from the RBNZ. In July, the central bank maintained the cash rate at 5.50% and meets next on August 16th. China released July PMIs this week, and the soft readings are weighing on the New Zealand dollar. China is New Zealand's largest trading partner and the New Zealand dollar is sensitive to Chinese economic releases. We'll get a look at the Caixin Services PMI on Thursday. The consensus estimate stands at 52.5, following a June reading of 53.9. A reading above 50.0 points to expansion. In the US, the ADP Employment report kicked off a host of job releases, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. ADP impressed with a gain of 327,000 for July, below the June reading of 455,000 but blowing past the consensus estimate of 189,000. A month ago, ADP came in at 497,000, fuelling speculation that nonfarm payrolls might follow suit with a strong release. In the end, nonfarm payrolls fell significantly, as expected. Will the NFP follow ADP's lead and crush the estimate? NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6093. Below, there is support at 0.6031 0.6184 and 0.6246 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD eyes UK employment reportThe British pound has drifted lower on Monday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2827 in the European session, down 0.09%. The UK labour market remains resilient despite a cooling economy and high interest rates. Tuesday's June jobs report is expected to show strong numbers. The economy is expected to produce 158,000 jobs in June, after a banner reading of 250,000 in May. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at a low 3.8% and unemployment claims are expected to continue declining. Wage growth is expected to rise to 6.8%, up from 6.5%. That sounds like great news, but not when you're the Bank of England and need the labour market to show some cracks and wage growth to slow down. A tight labor market and strong wage growth have hampered efforts by the central bank to lower inflation and the OECD said last week that the UK was the only major economy where inflation is still rising. The May inflation report was a disappointment, with headline inflation remaining at 8.7% and the core rate rising from 6.8% to 7.1%. BoE Governor Bailey will likely comment on the job numbers and investors will be looking for clues about the BoE's plans at the August 3rd meeting. The BoE has raised rates to 5.0%, but more tightening will be needed in order to curb inflation and the money markets have fully priced in a peak rate of 6.5% by February. The US dollar was broadly lower against the major currencies on Friday, after nonfarm payrolls slid to 209,000, below from the downwardly revised reading of 306,000 in May but not far from the 225,000 consensus estimate. The downturn may have surprised many investors who were caught up in the hype of a massive ADP employment release which showed a gain of 497,000. There was speculation of a blowout nonfarm payroll reading but in the end, the consensus estimate was close and the US dollar was broadly lower on expectations that the Fed could be close to winding up its rate-tightening cycle. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2782 earlier today. The next support level is 1.2716 There is resistance at 1.2906 and 1.2972
by OANDA
Canadian dollar on a roll ahead of US and Canada job reportsThe Canadian dollar is drifting in the European session, trading at 1.3378. It has been a good week for the Canadian currency, which is up about 1% against its US cousin. We can expect some significant movement from USD/CAD in the North American session, as both Canada and the US release the June employment reports. The US labour market has been surprisingly resilient in the wake of relentless tightening by the Fed. After 500 basis points of hikes, the labour market remains strong and has been a driver of inflation, interfering with the Fed's efforts to curb inflation. The ADP employment report usually doesn't get much attention, as it is not considered a reliable precursor to nonfarm payrolls, which follows a day or two after the ADP release. The June ADP reading was an exception, as the massive upturn couldn't be ignored. ADP showed a gain of some 497,000 new jobs, crushing the consensus estimate of 267,000 and the May reading of 228,000. The nonfarm payrolls report is expected to ease to 225,000 in June, down from 339,000 in May, but investors are nervous that nonfarm payrolls could follow the ADP release and head higher. If nonfarm payrolls defies the consensus estimate and climbs higher, the US dollar should respond with gains. The Fed, which is very much hoping that the labour market weakens, would be forced to consider more tightening than it had anticipated. The money markets are widely expecting a rate hike on July 27th but have priced in a September pause at 67%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. If nonfarm payrolls jump higher, all bets are off and I would expect the probability of a September pause to fall. Canada releases the June report later on Friday, which is usually overshadowed by US nonfarm payrolls. As in the US, the Canadian labour market has been strong - the economy added jobs for nine consecutive months until the May report. Canada is expected to add 20,000 new jobs in June, while the unemployment rate is projected to inch higher to 5.3% in June, up from 5.2% in May. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3318. Next, there is resistance at 1.3386 1.3217 and 1.3149 are providing support
by OANDA