HBAR Reversal time?My long-term golden pocket target has finally been reached leaving a long lower wick behind as demand soaked up the drop. Price is likely to retrace into the middle of the wick and find its final support if the move was truly the wave 2 bottom!
If we go lower the ‘alt-coin golden pocket’, 0.786, sits at the major High Volume Node support and would be a great buy as well as a good spot to look out for longs.
Weekly RSI has room to fall but bullish divergence is forming!
Wave 3 has a minimum expected target of $0.65 aligning with targets from the standard deviation bands above. Wave 5 has a minimum target of $0.75
Safe trading
ALT-COIN
FET extreme opportunity zone!NYSE:FET wave IV megaphone pattern is still in play despite the lower low and is invalidated only if we get blow wave II at $0.1685. This is a complex Elliot wave structure where investors and traders get trapped easily!
Weekly RSI now has bullish divergence forming but is not yet confirmed. Price found support at the major High Volume Node and Fibonacci Golden Pocket, a high probability reversal area!
Wave V has an expected target of the R2 weekly pivot at $4.73 but can over-extend in an exuberant market conditions.
Fetch had one of the largest runs last year offering a 56x from a swing below the SD-3 green opportunity band zone. When an asset moves with such momentum to the SD+3 threshold (where it is expected to spend <1% of the time) momentum is found in the opposite direction and gives way to extreme undervaluation! This is were we strike!
Price has now reached the opportunity green band zone once more quickly catching a bid of 20% as of writing. Price is expected to spend <5% of the time in this zone offering investors a short window of opportunity. It can go lower of course but there is a good chance a bottom is formed in this area! I intend to buy here and I am looking out for longs which give me larger position size than buy and hold due to the nature of the risk management.
Price targets for fair value, where we expect price to return to at least, is currently at $0.60. Another irrational alt-season with backed momentum could see a new all time high towards the $5 range and I will take profits at each band threshold along the way!
SOL Macro - Time for Price discovery?$SOLWeekly RSI has returned to the EQ giving Solana plenty of space for upside growth! Price is attempting to break into all time high but just can’t find the momentum it needs. This is good thing for now, keeping volatility to a minimum!
Weekly R5 Pivot and Fibonacci extension targets are $660. Price is above the weekly pivot showing the uptrend is in tact and may well test it as support again!
Consolidating under resistance for an extended period often leads to a breakout!
Safe trading
NEAR Ready For Higher!CBOE:NEAR done a 10x last year renewing faith in the asset.
Price is attempting to breakout above the High Volume Node resistance, $3, where we should see some strong momentum. Price may struggle at the weekly 200EMA before heading to the first target at $5.5, the weekly pivot.
Wave 2 is complete at the ' alt-coin golden pocket', 78.6 Fibonacci retracement and S1 pivot. Weekly RSi is bullish at the EQ.
Near could run to all time high this alt season..
Safe trading
AVAX Local interior triangle completeMouthful ahead:
AVAX appears to have completed a triangle as interior wave (b) of (c) of the macro triangle wave D... sorry
(c) ended perfectly at the 1:1 ration of the (a) - (b) which is expected.
Wave E is underway with the triple support target of the daily 200EMA, pivot and High Volume Node.
Safe trading
AVAX Macro Triangle?CRYPTOCAP:AVAX is printing a macro triangle similar to CRYPTOCAP:XRP did before it moved x10 in late 2024. The series of ABCs and Fibonacci depths gives this away.
Wave D could be complete but has not reached the resistance line and weekly pivot so I may have one more push up to go.
Wave E is expected to end at the weekly 200EMA to the High Volume Node as it doesn't test the support diagonal line by its characteristics.
This would also have triangle correction complete at the golden pocket adding confluence to the area.
Triangle pattern target is high and we could see a move to the R5 weekly pivot at $150 to test the all time high one more time.
Weekly RSI has bullish divergence from wave C.
Safe trading
HBAR Bull Pennant or deeper correction?HBAR wave (2) appears to be completed at $0.122 the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and High Volume Node support.
However, price does appear to have completed an ABC corrective wave up keeping the the wave (2) alive with a target of the S1 pivot, 'alt-coin golden pocket' 78.6 Fib retracement and High Volume Node support. The high probability terminal target area if we continue lower.
Bulls want to see the local downside action complete as a bull pennant and continue to the upside negating the ABC corrective wave.
Currently price is a below the weekly pivot, RSI is crossed bearishly at the EQ.
Upside targets remain $0.77 - $1.16 at the R3-R5 weekly pivots.
Safe trading
ETH Macro Picture, Pullback then $10k?CRYPTOCAP:ETH had a massive rally from the wave (II) bottom with a poke above all time high followed by extremely greedy sentiment on social and mainstream media of which I was warning should mark a local top and trap new investors.
Price has now pulled back to the first High Volume Node support target. I am expectinga deeper pullback over the next few weeks to complete wave (2) with an initial terminal target of the weekly pivot $3179 which is also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. That would be shallow for wave 2 which is expected in a wave III. However, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement sits at the next major High Volume Node support where it is expected to meet the weekly 200EMA adding a lot of confluence to this are as the next bottom, $2660.
Any further downside bring up the S1 weekly pivot, golden pocket and high volume node, $2250.
There is weekly bearish divergence from the early 2024 highs.
I will play this trading plan point by point and look for longs at key levels to at least secure some bounce profits if not find a bottom.
Safe trading
SOL Rejected at all time high! Whats next?Local Analysis / Targets / Elliot Wave
Solana attempted to break into price discovery but was rejected harshly back to the High Volume Node support trapping new traders and investors with the all time high excitement. Wave 3 appears to be underway with a minimum target of $365 the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and R5 daily pivot. Wave 3 pull backs should be shallow.
Continued downside bring up the ascending daily 200EMA and 0.382 target of $173. RSI is at the EQ and crossed bearishly.
Standard Deviation Band Analysis
Solana continues in the expected range just above fair value. Its attempts to break through the SD+2 threshold continue to thwarted but the next attempt will be number 4, the higher probability breakout!
Safe trading
ETH Correction Finally Underway!Local Analysis / Targets / Elliot Wave
I have been banging the drum about a deeper ETH pullback for a weeks and it appears to be finally underway with bearish market structure confirmed with the lower low from yesterday. Online sentiment, mainstream media attention, silly price targets from analysts, discussions of the ‘the flippening’ returned and Trumps son bragging on X were all major warning signs of a local top. The ETH validator exit queue is record breaking causing a delay of 40+ days if you want to un-stake your ETH. Wrapped Ethereum like stETH may be a good option if you really want out fast! Weather this supply hits the markets is still up in the air.
Price is in the High Volume Node support and below the daily pivot. This isn’t likely to break immediately but after a few attempts to weaken it first (4? lol). The first target for the end of the correction is the same as a few weeks ago - the S1 pivot, rising daily 200EMA and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $3500, followed by the S2 pivot, High Volume Node support and 0.786 ‘alt-coin golden pocket’ at $2700. This could present a great buy opportunity.
RSI is making its way to oversold which is a good sign when in a range.
Standard Deviation Band Analysis
Standard deviation bands tell a different story with price still only testing the fair value regression line as resistance after presenting a fantastic buy opportunity from the green zone earlier this year. Price rides this line most of the time as you can see by looking left. A significant breakout above would see the SD+2 threshold target around $7000, a blow off top could reach $10,000 at the SD+3 threshold.
Safe trading
AAVE Breakdown from wave 5 wedge. Whats next?Local Analysis / Targets / Elliot Wave
CRYPTOCAP:AAVE broke down out of the wave (5) of 1 wedge per my previous analysis reaching the paths first target to find support the daily 200EMA and S1 pivot point. If price continues lower I expect it to bounce first before delivering a final thrust down in wave C of 2.
The major support High Volume Node, $210, is the target at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. Further breakdown brings up the golden pocket and S2 pivot, $175, and the alt-coin ‘golden pocket’ sits at $149 the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. This is the most common area for alt-coin pull backs to terminate and a characteristic area for low volume, highly volatile assets in general due to the psychology as I discuss on my Fibonacci tutorial on YouTube.
RSI is making its way down into oversold but has plenty of room to fall with no bullish divergence yet.
Standard Deviation Band Analysis
Standard deviation bands are non-normally distributed unlike the renko chart shared in yesterdays report when time is removed. Price continues to spend way to much time at extremes with fast movement through the fait value zone. Bands are shifting significantly positive as time goes on due to price spending so much time in th eupper boundaries. This is a good sign of strength, dips remain shallow showing strong demand.
Price is testing the SD+2 threshold as support now and losing this would bring up the next target of the fair value regression line at $150 which adds confluence to the alt-coin ‘golden pocket’ targets in the technical analysis.
Safe trading
SOL Elliot Wave Count ChangedCRYPTOCAP:SOL Solana appears to have completed an Elliot wave diagonal pattern with a series of ABCs.
Falling below the trend line and 200EMA would confirm this and bring up a first target of $140 at the High Volume Node and 0.5 Fibonacci retracement.
Daily RSI has had bearish divergence for a while. The 'alt-coin golden pocket' 0.786 sits at the wave 2 bottom around $119 which would be a buy for me if price gets down that far.
Safe trading.
$AAVE Set for all time high?AAVE tested the weekly pivot as support and after a secondary pullback to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, sky rocketed alongside BTC and crypto yesterday to a new local high.
Wave III looks truly underway with this kind of price action and the target remains the R5 weekly pivot at $1155. High Volume Node resistance at $460 and $670 are the next targets.
Weekly RSI has plenty of room to grow to get to overbought.
Analysis is invalidated below $111 so plenty of room to breathe!
Safe trading
$FET Elliot Wave Updated, Triangle forming?NYSE:FET appears to be printing a triangle in a larger degree wave B of an ABC counter-bear trend correction.
Wave (D) is expected to finish at the descending resistance, poking above the daily 200EMA, while wave (e) is often shallow so expected to end at the daily pivot point. The target is $1.6 at he triangle pattern depth and major High Volume Node resistance.
An ABC corrective wave does not mean that the macro count is invalidated and may form part of larger ending diagonal series of ABCs to achieve my high degree wave 5 targets above all time high. I will update the weekly chart to reflect this shortly.
Safe trading
$SUI Short term bearish move coming?CRYPTOCAP:SUI is currently testing the daily pivot as support which must hold to keep the bullish count alive.
I have 2 Elliot Wave counts, short term bullish and bearish that I am patiently waiting to see unfold. Long term is still bullish.
The white count suggests that we have printed a micro wave (1) and are completing a wave (2) now at the daily pivot just above the daily 200EMA where price should move powerfully in a wave (3) of 3 upwards.
Alternatively, the red count, wave B of a larger corrective could also be complete at the recent swing high and losing the pivot and daily 20EMA would confirm this. Wave C has an initial target of the triple support 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, daily 200EMA and major support High Volume Node at $3 to complete wave 2 and a secondary target of the alt-coin golden pocket 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and S1 daily pivot at $2.7
The bearish analysis is my preferred count due to the amount of confluence, including the fact we are entering mid August and this move would also push daily RSI back into oversold.
This would set up new long signals so look out for those in the Substack Trading Signals
Safe trading
$RENDER Weekly Brings Clarity!CRYPTOCAP:RENDER weekly chart shows long term strength through the depth of the Fibonacci retracement not even reaching 0.5.
The depth of the recent swing low been so close wave (C) does concern me that the larger correction is not yet over and maybe price does want to visit the 'alt-coin' golden pocket of the 0.618-0.768 Fib retracement Where the would be a High Volume Node (not drawn).
For now the upside target is the weekly pivot but the local chart has a lot of work to do first with daily 200EMA!
Safe trading
$XRP All Tie High After Shallow Pullback?CRYPTOCAP:XRP had a fantastic week smashing all resistances. I am looking for a shallow pull back to test the High Volume Node support at $2.7 at the .236 Fibonacci retracement before continuing to challenge the all time high.
Wave (3) of a motif wave appears complete adding confluence to a shallow retracement for wave (4).
Daily RSI is extremely overbought.
Safe trading
$ETH Pullback to $2630 Support?CRYPTOCAP:ETH has a great week pushing through resistance and making new local highs after testing the daily 200EMA and daily pivot as support.
Price is likely to retest the swing high and previous resistance as support around $2600-2700, also the .382 Fibonacci retracement.
RSI is printing daily bearish divergence in overbought from the wave (3) top to current as it did at the wave (5) top seeing large rejection. The retest of $2600 would reset RSI.
Price is ultimately set to test $3600 as the next resistance if the Elliot wave count is correct.
Analysis is invalidated below $2050
Safe trading
$ETH Breakout this week?CRYPTOCAP:ETH local chart looks ready
I think were looking at a decent ETH breakout this week to the next resistance High Volume Node at $3600 minimum target.
👉 BTC is consolidating under all time high resistance after multiple tests which is usual a sign of bullish continuation. Usualy giving alts room to room.
👉 Ethereum is above the daily 200EMA, daily pivot and also consolidating under resistance once more after testing the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and S1 daily pivot adding confluence to that being the local bottom. This appears to be Elliot wave 2, a shallow wave 2 retracement (less than 0.5) is a show of strength and investor impatience.
Analysis invalidated below the daily pivot and daily 200EMA as this will lock in 3 waves up and look corrective.
Safe trading
ENA (Ethena) The recent price movement of ENA (Ethena) has shown exciting technical shifts, particularly after attempting to break out of a long-standing price channel four times. This repeated testing of resistance typically indicates strong buying pressure and potential momentum toward higher price levels. With the price channel finally breaking, ENA has surged toward a target range of $2-$5 This upward movement suggests increased investor confidence and bullish sentiment, often seen when technical resistance is overcome after multiple attempts.
A price target of $5 is ambitious, yet plausible, given the increased interest and potential fundamental factors supporting ENA. However, as with all crypto investments, this analysis should be viewed as a technical observation and not financial advice, as the market remains highly volatile and subject to rapid changes based on external influences.
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku Good start to the week,
Let us analyze at a glance the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. We use the traditional settings. There are other indicators in the analysis. We have developed and released them Open Source.
Trend:
Kumo has been red for 26 days and is 4.2% wide. The various lines confirm a downtrend situation and we are below the Kumo, going towards the Tenkan Weekly. The already bearish momentum has been further exacerbated by the lawsuit to Binance by the SEC.
The Kijun Trend indicator now indicates looking for short positions, now since May 9, 2023
Heikin-Ashi:
Instead, the Heikin-Ashi is communicating uncertainty to us, as we are still inside the Kumo and certainly today's day pushed the price towards the lower end of the Kumo.
Supports and resistances:
- 28900.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 27800.00-27900.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 25000.00 Fibonacci
- 24800.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
- 24400.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
For static price levels, the lower right chart plots the flat zones of Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B on different timeframes, and the Chikou for the daily time frame.
For dynamic price levels, the Ichimoku lines can be observed: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Conclusions:
For the past month the situation is bearish, today after the announcement that the SEC has sued Binance, it has led to fear in the markets, generating a candle at the moment of about -5.5%. There are several allegations: first of all about the fact that some coins are considered as securities(e.g. BNB, BUSD, SOL, SAND, FIL, ADA, MATIC, COTI, ALGO, ATOM, MANA, since they can be staked to generate annuity) and therefore need a license to be managed, non-compliance with the ban towards US users and some suspicious transactions carried out by CZ and on the management of clients' funds. In contrast, Binance has defended itself by rejecting allegations that it maneuvered customer funds and that it has always cooperated--from the creation of binance.us--with the SEC and thus points to the allegations as unjustified.
It is possible to find a sideways/rebass ABC pattern indicating the following levels: NT 29230, N 26655, E 24080, V 23296.
It is important to evaluate the price close during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish: 27100.00-28700.00
- Bearish/Lateral: 24800.00-28155.00
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Decreased.
- Dominance of BTC: Decreased.
- Price of BTC: Decreased.
- Alt cycle expectation: Stable.
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku Good start to the week,
Let us analyze at a glance the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. We use the traditional settings. There are other indicators in the analysis. We have developed and released them Open Source.
Trend:
Kumo has been green for 20 days and is about 6.3% wide. It has widened and is stable. The various lines indicate sideways/downtrend on the short term, uptrend/lateral on the medium and long term.
The Kijun Trend indicator now indicates looking for long positions.
Heikin-Ashi:
The Heikin-Ashi confirm bullish momentum but we observe wide shadows on the Tenkan and just above, still indicating a sideways momentum.
Supports and resistances:
- 29800.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan
- 27950.00 Fibonacci
- 25000.00 Fibonacci
- 24800.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan
For static price levels, the lower right chart plots the flat zones of Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B on different timeframes, and the Chikou for the daily time frame.
For dynamic price levels, the Ichimoku lines can be observed: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term).
Conclusions:
The situation is bullish/lateral, given also the proximity of the psychological threshold of 30000.00.
Hosoda's N wave of the ABC pattern identified several analyses ago has been centered and is acting as the resistance. It is possible to find a bullish ABC pattern indicating a first V level at 31227.96, NT level at 33467.19, and N level at 35827.10. On the other hand, a lateral/ribassist one indicating NT at 29501.31, and N at 26824.77.
It is interesting to see how BTC is recovering having closed a good quarter in conjunction with the problems in the traditional banking system.
It is important to evaluate the price close during the week on the following price structures:
- Bullish: 29500.00-29800.00
- Bearish/Lateral: 25000-26800.00
Altcoin Cycle:
For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation:
- Total cryptocurrency market capital: Increased.
- BTC Dominance: Decreased.
- Price of BTC: Increased.
- Expectation of Alt Cycle: Increased.
Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community.
Indicators used:
Analysis Tool
Kijun Trend Indicator
Ichimoku Support and Resistance
Chikou Support and Resistance