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BTCUSDT Holding Higher Lows, $94,700 Resistance in FocusHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on BTCUSDT (3H) based on the current chart structure. BTCUSDT initially experienced a strong sell-off, marked by aggressive bearish momentum as price dropped from higher levels. After this decline, the market found a base and started to grow, transitioning into an ascending channel. This phase showed a clear shift in control from sellers to buyers, supported by a rising support line and multiple bullish reactions along the channel. However, as price approached the upper boundary of the channel and the Seller Zone, upside momentum began to slow. During this phase, BTC formed several fake breakouts and failed attempts to hold above resistance, signaling strong selling pressure near the highs. Price then broke back below short-term structure and entered a consolidation phase, forming a clear range. This range reflected temporary balance, with buyers defending the lower boundary while sellers capped the upside. Recently, BTC broke out from the range to the upside and reclaimed the Buyer Zone, confirming renewed bullish intent. Price is now trading above key support around 91,500–92,000 and is respecting the rising support line, indicating that buyers are actively defending pullbacks. The current move is pushing price back toward the Resistance Level and Seller Zone around 94,700, where a test is expected. My scenario: as long as BTCUSDT holds above the Buyer Zone and the rising support line, the bullish bias remains intact. I expect price to retest the 94,700 Resistance, with TP1 aligned near this level. A clean breakout and acceptance above resistance would confirm bullish continuation and open the door for higher targets. However, a strong rejection from the Seller Zone followed by a breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish scenario and suggest a deeper corrective move. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
21
H4 US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 98.70 on the 4H chart, and it’s looking like it’s going to continue its recovery within that rising channel from the low at 97.75. Price has managed to take back the 50% Fib level at 98.24 and is now testing the resistance at 98.74 – which just so happens to be where a prior support level used to be. The 200-EMA at 99.00 is a big deal as far as upside goes, while the supports sit at 98.12 and 97.9. RSI is sitting at 58, which is a pretty good sign. The trade idea is to pick up a few dollars on the dip near 98.30 and aim for 99.20, but set a stop loss below 97.95.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mathew_TraderGold
Bullish Channel Under Pressure — Continuation or Breakdown XAUUSD / M30 — Market Update Market Context & Structure Gold is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming that the broader market structure on M30 remains bullish. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is still intact, and the prior impulsive leg shows strong bullish commitment rather than exhaustion. However, after testing the upper boundary of the channel, price has shifted into a corrective pullback phase. This move is corrective in nature and currently unfolding inside the bullish structure, not yet signaling a trend reversal. Technical Confluence The lower boundary of the ascending channel aligns closely with a short-term demand area, making it a critical reaction zone. Price has already shown an initial response from this region, suggesting buyers are still active. At the same time, the mid-range horizontal level (previous intraday balance) is acting as a decision point. Market behavior around this level will determine whether gold resumes its bullish continuation or transitions into a deeper corrective phase. Resistance: Upper channel resistance near 4,550–4,570 Mid-range supply around 4,490–4,500 Support: Channel support near 4,450–4,460 Major downside level at 4,320–4,340 (structure risk zone) Scenarios ➡️ Primary Scenario: If price holds above the lower channel support and forms a higher low, gold is likely to resume its bullish trajectory. A clean push back above the mid-range level would confirm continuation toward the upper channel boundary, with potential extension to new highs. ⚠️ Risk Scenario: A decisive breakdown below the channel support would invalidate the bullish structure. In that case, downside momentum could accelerate toward the 4,320–4,340 support zone, signaling a broader corrective move rather than a simple pullback.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mathew_TraderGold
Is This the Base for a Trend Reversal or Just a Temporary Pause?📊 MARKET STRUCTURE & PRICE ACTION OVERVIEW Hello traders! Here’s a clean technical breakdown of EURUSD (1H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD has been trading within a broader bearish structure, marked by consistent lower highs and lower lows. After a sustained sell-side move, price reached a key reaction area and printed a sharp bullish impulse, signaling short-term buyer participation and the formation of a potential pivot low. Following this rebound, the market failed to sustain bullish momentum and rolled back into a corrective pullback, respecting prior structure levels. This behavior reflects a market still under bearish pressure, but now transitioning into a critical evaluation phase near demand. 🟦 SUPPLY & DEMAND – KEY ZONES Primary Demand (Support Zone): The 1.1665–1.1670 area is a well-defined demand zone, where strong buying previously entered and halted the sell-off. This zone represents institutional interest and is the key level preventing further downside. Intermediate Resistance: The 1.1700 level acts as a short-term structure barrier. Price rejection here confirms that sellers are still defending lower highs. Major Supply Zones: Overhead supply remains layered at: 1.1745–1.1760 (previous consolidation and EMA alignment) 1.1780–1.1790 (higher-timeframe supply and distribution zone) These zones define the path price must reclaim to confirm a broader bullish shift. 🎯 CURRENT MARKET POSITION Currently, EURUSD is trading just above the primary demand zone, placing price at a high-importance decision area. This is where the market will determine whether recent selling pressure is exhaustion-driven or simply a pause before continuation. The proximity to demand suggests risk is becoming asymmetric, with sellers needing a clean breakdown to regain momentum. 🧠 MY SCENARIO As long as EURUSD holds above the 1.1665 demand zone, the current price action can be treated as a corrective base-building phase, with potential for a push back toward 1.1700, followed by a retest of the 1.1745–1.1760 supply zone. Acceptance above that area would be the first signal of a meaningful trend shift. However, a decisive hourly close below 1.1665 would confirm bearish continuation, opening the door for further downside expansion beyond the current structure. For now, price is testing demand, not breaking structure. ⚠️ RISK NOTE This is a critical inflection point. Let price confirm direction at demand, avoid early bias, and always manage your risk.
Long
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Fundamental Note: EURUSD 07 Jan 2026EURUSD is trading around the 1.17 area as markets position for the first Non-Farm Payrolls release of 2026 on Friday, 9 Jan (Employment Situation for Dec 2025). This print matters more than usual because it’s the year’s first “reality check” on whether the late-2025 slowdown in hiring is turning into a softer trend (supporting more Fed cuts) or stabilizing (supporting USD via higher yields). Right now, consensus expectations lean toward a modest jobs gain in the mid-50k to ~60k range, with unemployment seen near 4.5% and wage growth watched closely for a rebound risk. In the short term, a weaker NFP and/or softer earnings would likely push US yields and the USD lower, giving EURUSD room to squeeze back toward recent highs; a hot wages surprise or upside payroll miss could quickly flip the move into a USD rebound. On the Euro side, easing inflation keeps the ECB comfortable in its “hold” stance, which reduces near-term EUR policy volatility versus the US data-driven repricing this week. Bottom line: the market is mostly looking for a “soft-but-not-breaking” NFP that validates expectations for further Fed easing in 2026—any big deviation should produce an outsized EURUSD reaction. 🟢 Bullish factors: 1. NFP downside surprise or softer wages → lower US yields/USD. 2. Market still broadly positioned for additional Fed cuts in 2026. 3. ECB “on hold” narrative reduces euro-side policy shock risk near-term. 🔴 Bearish factors: 1. Strong NFP and/or hot wage growth → higher US yields, USD bid. 2. Risk-off flows (or renewed geopolitical stress) typically favor USD liquidity. 3. Euro inflation cooling can revive future ECB cut discussions if growth fades. 🎯 Expected targets: Volatile range into/through NFP. Base case (soft NFP): upside toward 1.1750–1.1820. Hawkish surprise (strong jobs/wages): pullback toward 1.1600–1.1550, with 1.1500 as the next downside area if the USD rally extends.
by Trade8Eight
EURUSD Tests Key Support — Is This the Base for a Bullish ReversFX:EURUSD on the H1 timeframe has been in a corrective bearish phase following a prolonged distribution period at the highs, with price trending lower beneath declining moving averages. Momentum weakened sharply during the selloff, culminating in a strong downside extension that swept liquidity below prior lows before price began to stabilize. Current price action shows FX:EURUSD reacting directly from a clearly defined support zone around the 1.1670 region. The sharp rejection from this area suggests the presence of responsive buyers stepping in after the liquidity sweep, creating conditions for a potential short-term base. While the broader intraday structure remains corrective, this reaction indicates that selling pressure is beginning to lose momentum. If price can continue to hold above the support zone and build higher lows, a corrective rebound toward the 1.1710 region becomes the first area of interest. This level aligns with prior intraday structure and represents the initial objective where sellers may attempt to re-engage. Acceptance above this zone would improve the probability of further upside rotation. A sustained move beyond 1.1750 would signal a deeper mean reversion within the range, opening the path toward the 1.1780 region where prior distribution occurred. Such a move would reflect a broader corrective recovery rather than an immediate trend reversal, but it would still offer constructive upside potential in the near term. However, failure to hold the 1.1670 support would invalidate the recovery scenario and expose the pair to further downside continuation. In that case, price could extend lower as the market searches for deeper liquidity before any meaningful structural shift develops.
Long
by RexTraderGOLD
15
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 8, 2026 EURUSDOn Thursday, January 8, EUR/USD is holding near 1.16800. Market activity is calmer ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report, while traders balance signals: recent job-opening and hiring indicators pointed to some cooling, but late-2025 services data remained relatively resilient. The US dollar’s tone is driven by expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. Strong labour-market data increases the likelihood that rates stay high for longer, which supports the dollar. Additional demand for the US currency can also appear when uncertainty rises around US trade decisions and geopolitical developments. In the euro area, December inflation eased to 2%, leaving the European Central Bank with fewer reasons to adjust its policy stance in the near term. With moderate growth and external risks still present, the euro may lag the dollar if US data confirms economic resilience. This keeps the downside case for the pair in focus. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16800, SL 1.17000, TP 1.16200
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold prices adjust pending NF news.1️⃣ Trendline Main short-term trend: Bearish. Price remains below the upper descending trendline → selling pressure still dominates. Current structure: A technical pullback within a downtrend; no solid reversal signal yet. The lower short-term ascending trendline is under threat → increased downside risk if key support is broken. 2️⃣ Resistance 4,520 – 4,522: Very strong resistance, confluence of: Fibonacci extension Descending trendline Previous supply zone 👉 Priority: Look for sell setups when price approaches this zone. 👉 Buy only if price breaks above and closes with confirmation. 3️⃣ Support 4,400 – 4,402: Key support area, confluence of: Trendline support Demand zone EMA / price structure 👉 A break below this zone would confirm a break of the short-term bullish structure, opening the door for a deeper decline. 📈 Trading Plan BUY GOLD: 4,400 – 4,402 Stop Loss: 4,390 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips (4450) SELL GOLD: 4,520 – 4,522 Stop Loss: 4,530 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips (4,470 )
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AstronautPioneer
1
XTIUSD is trading in a bearish channel on the 8H timeframeXTIUSD is trading in a bearish channel on the 8H timeframe, with key support highlighted near 51.40 and resistance around 58.95. The structure favours a sell-on-rise approach as long as price stays below the upper channel and the breakdown zone near 56.90–58.00. 1. Timeframe and Context • Timeframe used: 8H chart for medium term swing structure. • Instrument: XTIUSD (WTI crude oil spot vs USD), currently trading in the mid 50s after a sustained decline. 2. Trend Structure • Price is moving inside a well defined descending channel with lower highs and lower lows, confirming a dominant downtrend. • The recent bounce attempts have been capped near the upper channel line, reinforcing sellers’ control over this. 3. Key Levels • Immediate resistance zone: 56.90–58.95, where previous highs, breakdown area, and channel resistance cluster together. • Major support: 51.40, marked on the chart as a potential demand zone and projected downside target within the channel. 4. Volume Profile and Sentiment • Volume profile for the current 8H range shows Point of Control (POC) around 56.43, with higher sell volume than buy volume, indicating distribution at higher prices. • The custom panel signals bearish sentiment, with negative delta and a “SELL” bias, supporting continuation of the downside leg rather than a strong reversal. 5. Momentum Indicators • RSI on the 8H chart is below the midline and sloping down, confirming weakening momentum and supporting the bearish bias. • Any short term RSI bounce towards 50–60 while price remains under resistance can be treated as a pullback within the larger downtrend. 6. Price Path Projection • Base case: Price may attempt a minor bounce from current levels toward the breakdown zone near 56.50–57.00, then face renewed selling pressure. • If sellers defend this zone, the next leg down towards 55.00 and then 51.40 support becomes likely, in line with the projected yellow path on the chart. 7. Trading Plan Idea (8H) • Bias: Sell on rally within the 8H descending channel as long as price trades below 58.95 resistance. Aggressive bears can look for short setups near the breakdown/POC zone (around 56.5–58.0) with downside targets at 55.00 and 51.40 support, while conservative traders may wait for a clean 8H close below recent lows before entering. aiTrendview Global Disclaimer This aiTrendview report is an AI-generated document provided exclusively for educational and training purposes and shall not be construed as investment, financial, legal, or tax advice in any jurisdiction. aiTrendview and its affiliates are not SEBI-registered research analysts, investment advisers, or portfolio managers, and all information herein is automatically compiled from publicly available sources that may contain errors, delays, or omissions. Users must independently verify all data before making any financial, commercial, or legal decisions, as no market values, performance figures, or trends contained in this report constitute guarantees or forward-looking statements. Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any security. aiTrendview, its creators, and all associated AI systems disclaim all liability for losses or consequences arising from the use or reliance upon this content, and users accept full personal responsibility for all actions taken based on it. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or modification of this AI-generated material is strictly prohibited under international copyright, compliance, and intellectual-property laws.
ICMARKETS:XTIUSDShort
by aiTrendview-Charting-System
ES (SPX, SPY) Fundamental Analysis for Wed Jan 7As we head into Wednesday's session, the S&P 500 E-mini futures are testing significant resistance at the prior day's highs, reflecting a strong rebound from the lows observed last week. The current market landscape is marked by various challenges, including a divided Federal Reserve, softening labor data, and emerging geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. military actions in Venezuela. The Federal Reserve is maintaining its interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range after a 25 basis point cut in December. Internal divisions within the Fed have become increasingly apparent, with some members advocating for more substantial cuts while others are in favor of holding rates steady. Currently, the market assigns roughly a 15% chance of a rate cut in January, with the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for January 27-28. The minutes from December's meeting revealed growing concerns over short-term funding stress and the potential for abrupt market volatility, spurring discussions regarding the possibility of Treasury purchases to enhance liquidity in the financial system. Data Catalyst Update ADP Employment Change (Released at 8:15 AM ET) - Actual: +41K - Forecast: +50K - Previous: -32K Today's ADP Employment change shows a modest miss, reflecting a labor market that is recovering yet remains soft. While this figure is an improvement from November's contraction, it falls short of expectations. This outcome supports the view of a gradual cooling in the labor market without signaling an imminent recession. The reading is mildly dovish for the Federal Reserve's policy stance and offers limited directional clarity ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report. ISM Services PMI (Scheduled for 10:00 AM ET) - Forecast: ~53.0 - Previous: 52.6 The ISM Services PMI is the key market-moving release of the day. Given that the services sector accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. economic activity, the implications of this report are significant. A reading below 50 would indicate contraction and likely trigger risk-off sentiment in the markets. Conversely, a robust reading above 54 could reignite concerns about hawkish Fed policies, putting pressure on equities. The ideal scenario for market bulls would be a print that comes in line with expectations or slightly soft, thereby sustaining the narrative of a "soft landing." Additional Releases of Note: - Factory Orders (10:00 AM): Expected -1.2% - JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM): Expected 7.64M, down from prior 7.67M - Fed Vice Chair Bowman to speak at 4:10 PM LABOR MARKET CONTEXT In the last week of 2025, initial jobless claims fell to 199,000, marking the lowest level since early last year. This decline indicates a resilient labor market, even as the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% in November—the highest rate since September 2021. This uptick can be attributed primarily to federal workforce reductions linked to ongoing government restructuring efforts. Overall, the labor market appears stable, characterized by low hiring and equally low firing rates. Continuing claims have increased to 1.92 million, underscoring the reality that although layoffs have remained subdued, job seekers are facing extended search periods. The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, with a forecast of approximately 55,000 new jobs, will offer crucial insights into the employment landscape for December. GEOPOLITICAL RISK The recent U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has injected a new layer of uncertainty into the geopolitical landscape. In the wake of this development, Washington has announced plans to take temporary control of Venezuela while facilitating the involvement of U.S. energy firms in the exploration and development of the country’s vast oil reserves—the largest in the world. This situation has led to a modest uptick in demand for the dollar as a safe haven, while simultaneously increasing volatility within energy markets. From an equities perspective, this scenario presents a short-term challenge as investors grapple with the implications of U.S. access to Venezuelan oil. However, should this development result in a significant increase in oil supply, it could ultimately have disinflationary effects. CURRENCY & RATES The EUR/USD exchange rate has retraced to the 1.1685-1.1700 range after failing to maintain momentum above the 1.1800 threshold. While the dollar is finding some support driven by geopolitical flows, it remains fundamentally weak in light of expectations for Federal Reserve easing. The DXY index is currently hovering around 98.25, notably below the recent high of 100.40. On the European front, German inflation has come in at 1.8%, marking the first dip below the European Central Bank’s 2% target since September 2024. This development effectively reduces the likelihood of any near-term ECB interest rate hikes, maintaining the narrative of policy divergence between the ECB and other central banks. In the bond markets, a rally occurred overnight as yields fell, reflecting a shift in investor risk positioning as they look ahead to 2026. Market Structure Analysis ES futures closed Tuesday at 6,988.25, marking a notable rebound from Monday's low of 6,931. This upward movement has brought prices near key resistance levels established in the prior week and quarter, specifically between 6,991 and 6,995. This zone represents a significant confluence of resistance. While daily oscillators indicate elevated levels, they do not yet reach extremes, allowing for the possibility of continued upward momentum should this resistance be surpassed. The overarching trend remains bullish, underscored by a series of higher highs since the lows observed in October. However, an analysis of the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes reveals overbought conditions, which typically signal a need for consolidation or a potential pullback. Market Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish with Anticipated Pullback The current macroeconomic landscape favors equities, as the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative stance, inflationary pressures appear to be easing, and while the labor market remains stable, signs of cooling are evident. However, market positioning has grown extended near resistance levels, and the upcoming ISM report introduces potential volatility. From a bullish perspective, an ideal scenario would see a quick dip in response to the ISM data, targeting the 6,960-6,970 support zone. Such a pullback could facilitate institutional buying before the market resumes its upward trajectory. A sustained move above 6,995 would pave the way toward the psychologically significant 7,000 mark and possibly higher. Key Risk Factors to Watch: - A surprisingly strong ISM reading (greater than 55) could reignite hawkish concerns from the Fed. - Ongoing tensions in Venezuela could introduce additional market uncertainties. - Pre-NFP positioning may lead to increased market volatility and choppy trading conditions. Bottom Line Today's market outlook is largely shaped by the upcoming 10:00 AM release of the ISM Services index, which is expected to bring significant volatility. The recent ADP employment report, which fell short of expectations, did not stir up much reaction, leading to a market that remains in a cautionary holding pattern around key resistance levels. Traders should be watchful for potential trading opportunities, particularly during any pullbacks to the value-area support. Current higher-timeframe trends suggest a preference for buying on dips rather than pursuing breakouts at these elevated levels. Key Levels to Monitor: - Support: 6,959 - 6,972 - Resistance: 6,991 - 7,000
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Buyers are continuing to capitalize on their favorable positions1️⃣ Trendline Short-term trend: corrective rise within a larger downtrend. Price is being capped by the descending trendline → a key decision zone for the next move. Current structure: short-term higher lows, but price has not broken the descending trendline yet ⇒ no confirmation of a medium-term trend reversal. 2️⃣ Resistance 4,520 – 4,522: strong resistance Confluence: descending trendline + previous supply zone + Fibonacci extension Expectation: strong selling pressure / high probability of rejection 3️⃣ Support 4,435 – 4,440: near-term support Role: maintaining the short-term bullish corrective structure 4,400 – 4,405: major support Confluence: demand zone + structural low + EMA → Key zone determining whether the corrective bullish move can hold 4️⃣ Primary Scenarios Sell bias: prioritize sells at 4,520 – 4,522 upon clear price rejection signals. Buy reactions: only consider buys if price holds above 4,400 – 4,435 and confirms a short-term reversal. 👉 The market is currently in a “decision zone” — wait for confirmation, avoid FOMO. Trade Plans BUY GOLD: 4,437 – 4,435 Stop Loss: 4,425 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips SELL GOLD: 4,520 – 4,522 Stop Loss: 4,532 Take Profit: 100 – 300 – 500 pips
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AstronautPioneer
3
XAUUSD Long: Demand Holds at 4,400 - Push Toward 4,500 in FocusHello traders! Here’s a clear technical breakdown of XAUUSD (2H) based on the current chart structure. XAUUSD previously moved within a steady bullish structure, respecting a rising trend line that supported price during multiple pullbacks. After a strong impulsive rally, Gold transitioned into a consolidation phase, forming a well-defined range that highlighted temporary balance between buyers and sellers. This range eventually resolved to the upside with a breakout, confirming bullish continuation and renewed buyer control. Currently, XAUUSD is trading between the 4,400 Demand Zone and the 4,500 Supply Zone, with price holding above the rising trend line. This shows that bullish structure is still intact, but price is once again approaching a key resistance area where a reaction is likely. My scenario: as long as XAUUSD holds above the 4,400 Demand Zone and respects the rising trend line, the broader bullish bias remains valid. A clean breakout and acceptance above the 4,500 Supply Zone would confirm continuation toward higher levels. However, if price is rejected from supply and breaks back below demand, this could trigger a deeper corrective move toward the trend line. For now, price is compressing between demand and supply, and a decisive move is expected soon. Manage your risk!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by heniitrading
22
EURUSD Liquidity Grab Above TrendlineQuick Summary EURUSD may break the bearish trendline to collect more liquidity, After that move a downside continuation is expected The main target is the liquidity void created yesterday after a strong bullish move of more than 80 pips without any mitigation Full Analysis There is a potential scenario on EURUSD where price may first break above the bearish trendline This move would likely serve as a liquidity grab rather than a true trend reversal Yesterday EURUSD rallied strongly for more than 80 pips without retesting any levels This impulsive move left a clear liquidity void below which often acts as a magnet for price By breaking the bearish trendline price can attract additional buy side liquidity before reversing lower, Once enough liquidity is collected the expectation is for EURUSD to resume the downside move The liquidity void left behind represents a strong downside objective and As long as price behavior supports this scenario the focus remains on a potential drop after the liquidity grab above the trendline
Short
by Mr_Liquidity1
9
Global FX Overview: Dollar steady as policy expectations remain Dollar (USD): Waiting for confirmation from labor data The US dollar traded cautiously as traders refrained from making large directional bets ahead of a crucial batch of US labor market data, with December’s Nonfarm Payrolls report firmly in focus. Employment data plays a central role in shaping US monetary policy expectations, as labor market strength feeds directly into wage growth, inflation persistence, and ultimately interest rate decisions. With uncertainty around whether the US labor market is cooling meaningfully or remains tight, investors are opting to wait for clearer confirmation before adjusting rate expectations. As a result, the dollar has remained range-bound, reflecting a pause driven by event risk rather than a decisive shift in sentiment. Asia (JPY): Yield differentials continue to favor the dollar In Asia, the concept of yield differentials continues to explain why the dollar remains strong against the yen despite Japan’s recent rate increase. In foreign exchange markets, currencies are driven less by the absolute level of interest rates and more by the relative difference between two economies’ yields. While Japan has begun normalising policy and long-term Japanese government bond yields have reached multi-decade highs, the gap between Japanese and US interest rates remains wide. US short-term and real yields are still significantly higher, making dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. This sustained yield advantage keeps capital flowing into the dollar, while the yen remains a preferred funding currency for carry trades. Until this differential narrows meaningfully, incremental tightening by the Bank of Japan is unlikely to produce sustained yen strength against the dollar. Europe (EUR): Softer inflation dampens long-term tightening expectations The euro weakened modestly after German inflation slowed more than expected, reducing confidence that future policy tightening will be required. As Germany is the euro area’s largest economy, weaker-than-expected inflation there carries significant weight for broader eurozone policy expectations. While markets still anticipate that interest rates set by the European Central Bank will remain unchanged through 2026, traders have slightly scaled back expectations for a potential rate hike in 2027. This reassessment reflects reduced concern that inflationary pressures will re-emerge as strongly as previously thought, making the euro marginally less attractive on a forward-looking yield basis. Australia (AUD): Sticky inflation supports a ‘higher for longer’ stance In Australia, November CPI data came in softer than expected, signalling some easing in inflationary pressure. However, inflation remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2% to 3% target range and is not declining quickly enough to justify a shift toward rate cuts. While inflation is no longer accelerating, it has proven sticky, indicating that underlying price pressures remain persistent rather than resolved. This dynamic places the RBA in a “higher for longer” policy position, where rates are likely to remain restrictive for an extended period. As a result, expectations for near-term easing have been pushed back, helping to underpin the Australian dollar despite softer headline inflation data. Key takeaway for readers Across regions, currency movements continue to be driven less by individual data points and more by how those data shape relative interest rate expectations. Whether it is US labor market resilience, persistent yield differentials favoring the dollar, softer European inflation dampening future tightening, or sticky Australian inflation delaying rate cuts, foreign exchange markets remain firmly anchored to the outlook for monetary policy rather than short-term noise.
by DeanMuller
XAUUSD: Buyers Defend Support, Retest of 4,490 ResistanceHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup. Market Analysis Gold previously traded under pressure near a descending triangle resistance line, where price action was compressed before buyers stepped in. After forming a solid base, XAUUSD broke above the triangle resistance and confirmed a bullish structural shift. This breakout initiated a steady upside move, supported by a rising trend line and a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Following the initial breakout, price entered a range, signaling temporary consolidation and accumulation. Buyers eventually gained control again, leading to a clean breakout above the range and continuation higher. This move brought gold into the key Resistance Zone around the 4,490–4,520 area, where price was recently tested and met with strong selling pressure. Currently, after the rejection from resistance, XAUUSD pulled back sharply but found demand near the Support Zone around 4,310, which aligns with a previous breakout level and the rising support line. The current price action shows a corrective pullback rather than a full trend reversal, with buyers stepping in to defend this support area. The structure remains constructive as long as price holds above this key demand zone. My Scenario & Strategy My primary scenario: as long as XAUUSD holds above the 4,310 Support Zone and respects the rising support line, the bullish bias remains intact. I expect buyers to continue defending this area and attempt another push toward the 4,490 Resistance Zone as the next upside objective. However, a decisive breakdown below support would weaken the bullish structure and open the door for a deeper corrective move. Until that happens, the overall structure favors continuation to the upside after consolidation. That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ratner
22
EURUSD Breakdown Confirmed, 1.1640 Support in FocusHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on EURUSD (2H) based on the current chart structure. EURUSD initially traded within a well-defined ascending channel, showing a strong bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows after the market started to grow from the lower levels. This bullish phase reflected steady buyer control, supported by a rising support line and multiple clean reactions along the channel structure. Eventually, price broke above the channel resistance, signaling momentum expansion. Following the breakout, EURUSD entered a clear range, where price consolidated between key highs and lows, indicating temporary balance between buyers and sellers. Multiple internal reactions and false moves within this range highlighted uncertainty and distribution near the highs. After topping out, price turned around and transitioned into a short-term descending channel, marking a shift in momentum. During this pullback, EURUSD broke below the range support and the descending channel support, confirming increasing bearish pressure. Price is now trading below the Resistance Level near 1.1720, which aligns with the former breakout area and the Seller Zone, reinforcing it as a strong supply region. The recent breakout below this level suggests sellers are gaining control in the short term. Currently, price is reacting around the Buyer Zone near the Support Level around 1.1670. This area aligns with prior demand and has already produced a small bounce, indicating potential short-term reaction. However, the overall structure remains corrective within the broader move. My scenario: as long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1720 Resistance Level, bearish pressure is likely to persist, with TP1 targeting the 1.1640 Support Level. A clear breakdown below support would open the door for further downside continuation. Conversely, a strong reclaim and acceptance back above resistance would invalidate the bearish bias and signal a potential trend shift. For now, price is at a key decision zone where sellers hold the advantage while support is being tested. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Short
by LegionQ8
32
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 7, 2025 USDJPYUSD/JPY is holding around 156.650 amid expectations for U.S. labor-market statistics and mixed signals on monetary policy in the two countries. For the dollar, the key is data that can confirm or refute the scenario of further Fed rate cuts in 2026: if the market sees signs of cooling employment, pressure on the dollar will increase. On the Japan side, attention is focused on the prospect of a gradual tightening of Bank of Japan policy in 2026. Even cautious steps toward rate hikes narrow the yield gap and increase the yen’s attractiveness, especially during periods of elevated uncertainty in global markets. Under these conditions, the potential for further USD/JPY upside may be limited. An additional source of risk remains rising tensions in Asia: tighter export restrictions between China and Japan increase nervousness and may boost demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency. If, at the same time, U.S. data come in weaker than forecasts, the pair would have grounds to decline. Strong U.S. statistics, on the other hand, would temporarily support the dollar and slow the yen’s strengthening. Trading recommendation: SELL 156.650, SL 156.850, TP 155.750
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
The Euro’s Bullish Blueprint: Identifying the Breakout TriggerHello everyone, On the H1 timeframe, the key focus right now is not the minor fluctuations around the EMA 50, but how EURUSD is positioning itself within a tight consolidation range between a proven support base and a looming resistance ceiling. Structurally, the market has transitioned from a sharp impulsive drop into a steady recovery phase, characterized by the formation of higher lows. Price is currently grappling with the EMA 50 and the lower boundary of the 1.1750–1.1760 resistance zone. This area represents a significant hurdle; a successful breach here would signal that the corrective phase is over and that buyers have successfully reclaimed the mid-term momentum. Following the recent bounce from the 1.1710–1.1720 support zone, EURUSD is showing signs of accumulation. This support area is technically critical as it represents a "demand pocket" where buyers have previously intervened to halt deeper declines. The current price action suggests that the market is gathering liquidity for a potential push higher, rather than preparing for a breakdown. From a price action perspective, we are seeing a "squeeze" against the resistance. As long as the higher-low structure remains intact, the bias leans toward an upside resolution. The move appears to be a preparation for a trend continuation toward the higher targets identified on the chart, provided the resistance zone is flipped into support. The projected path on the chart reflects this logic: - A decisive break above the 1.1760 Resistance Zone to reach Target 1. - A technical pullback to retest the breached zone, confirming it as new support. - A secondary rally toward Target 2 (1.1779) and eventually Target 3 (1.1807). Only a clean breakdown and acceptance below the 1.1710 support zone would invalidate this recovery scenario and shift the focus back to the bearish lows. Conversely, a daily close above the current resistance zone would be the definitive signal that a larger bullish cycle has commenced. Until the breakout is confirmed, EURUSD remains in a "wait-and see" compression. Patience around these key levels is essential to avoid being caught in a fake-out. Wishing you all effective and disciplined trading.
Long
by Gold_Dominator
At Trendline Resistance — Pullback Before the Next Leg?BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is pressing into the descending trendline resistance after a strong impulsive rally. Momentum remains constructive, but price is now at a reaction area, where profit-taking and pullbacks are likely. The broader structure still favors continuation as long as higher lows are maintained. The EMA cluster is rising and aligning with a strong demand zone, supporting a dip-buying framework rather than immediate reversal. Resistance: 93,200 – 93,800 (trendline) Support: 89,200 – 89,800 (strong demand) EMA support: ~90,600 ➡️ Primary: rejection at trendline → pullback into 89.2k–89.8k → higher low → continuation higher. ⚠️ Risk: clean breakout and acceptance above trendline opens extension toward new highs without a deep pullback.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Raphael_TraderGOLD