CAD/JPY - Channel Breakout (29.08.2025)The CAD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 106.47
2nd Support – 106.30
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Analysis
GBP/CHF - Wedge Breakout (28.08.2025)The GBP/CHF pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.0862
2nd Resistance – 1.0877
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USDJPY longs due to better than expected Eco dataFor the week ending August 23, 2025, U.S. initial jobless claims were 229,000, below the forecast of 231,000 and down from the previous week's revised figure of 234,000. This suggests a slight improvement in new unemployment filings.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent (0.8 percent at a quarterly rate) in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Due to the above data being better than expected, we can expect the dollar to increase in strength over the short term.
EURUSD: The Pump Before the DumpHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.
Market Analysis
From a broader perspective, the price has been consolidating within a large symmetrical triangle. This has created a well-defined range between the support zone at 1.1545 and the resistance zone at 1.1760, indicating market balance.
Currently, the price is rallying towards the upper boundary of this triangle after a bounce from its support line. This move is taking price directly into the key resistance area of 1.1740 - 1.1760.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario is built on a critical recent signal: the 'fake breakout'. The price pushed above the triangle's resistance but was forcefully rejected from the 1.1740 resistance level, showing strong seller control at the highs.
I expect this current rally to be a second test of that same seller-controlled territory. My anticipation is that the price will again fail to find acceptance above the triangle's resistance line, confirming the bearish pressure.
Therefore, the strategy is to watch for this rejection, as it would validate the short scenario and likely trigger a rotation downwards. The primary target is the 1.1565 level, aligning with the support zone between 1.1565 and 1.1545 area.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
XAUUSD Short: Reversal Expected from the Supply ZoneHello, traders! The price auction for XAUUSD has been consolidating for an extended period within a large symmetrical triangle. This pattern was defined by key pivot points, establishing the upper supply line and the lower demand line. This phase of balance saw volatility contract significantly as the market approached the apex of the formation, building energy for a decisive move.
Currently, this state of equilibrium has been resolved with a bullish breakout. XAUUSD has pushed above the descending supply line and has completed a retest, confirming the line as new support. This bullish price action is now driving the auction upwards, directly towards the major horizontal supply zone, which begins at the 3400 level.
The primary scenario anticipates that this breakout is a final exhaustive move into a major resistance area. The rally is expected to fail upon entering the 3400 - 3410 supply zone. A confirmed rejection here would suggest a 'bull trap' has occurred, likely initiating a sharp reversal. The take-profit for this scenario is therefore set at 3340 points, targeting the recent breakout area. Manage your risk!
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 28, 2025 USDJPYThe yen remains under pressure due to the persistent yield differential between the US and Japan and the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to policy normalization. The lack of readiness to tighten quickly supports carry dynamics and keeps USD/JPY near the top of its recent range whenever the dollar is stable.
In the US, expectations for a rate cut this autumn coexist with still-meaningful Treasury yields, limiting near-term JPY strength. Flows into dollar assets under a steady risk backdrop add support, while Japanese data (including Tokyo CPI later this week) could only briefly temper dollar demand unless it surprises decisively.
Our base case is for an orderly push toward 148.000+ provided the news backdrop remains calm and there are no signs of imminent intervention by Japanese authorities. Risk factors include a sharp drop in US yields or renewed “verbal intervention” from Japan’s Ministry of Finance.
Trading recommendation: BUY 147.150, SL 146.650, TP 148.150
GBPNZD: Trend ContinuationAugust has been a slow month, which I'm hoping volatility with pick up in September. While most pairs have been ranging, GBPNZD has a relatively cleaner trend.
Daily Timeframe:
Over on the daily timeframe, price crossed above a key level that it held below for several months. After crossing up, it found another minor resistance level, which it made another clean break above.
Given the clean breakouts above the resistance levels, this is an indication that the market is pretty one sided. We're not seeing fakeouts or any other indications that sellers still want control.
Hourly Timeframe:
The intraday timeframe is used to optimized my proposed entry. There are two key details here.
The EMA20 is crossing above EMA 60, which is an indication confluence where the intraday trend is aligned with the daily trend.
The pink trendline helps indicate the end of the counter-trend movement. When price crosses above this trendline, it also indicates that I can expect further upside (or that it's very likely).
XAUUSD📈 XAUUSD – 1H Timeframe
🟢 Long Call/ Bullish Candle
🔹 Gold is forming HH & HL (Higher Highs & Higher Lows) on the 1H chart → Uptrend structure intact.
🔹 Fib Retracement Setup → Perfect dip-buy opportunity from CMP (Current Market Price).
💡 Plan:
👉 Buy from CMP 🎯
👉 Book partial profits on resistance levels 🪙
👉 SL below Fib retracement 🔒
🌍 Weekly Fundamental Drivers:
1️⃣ Fed remains cautious on rate cuts, supporting safe-haven demand 🏦
2️⃣ Geopolitical uncertainty & central bank gold buying continue to give long-term bullish momentum 🌐
⚠️ Risk Management: Stay disciplined — let structure + fundamentals guide your trade.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 27, 2025 GBPUSDSterling is trading steady around 1.34500 against a restrained dollar: markets continue to price a higher probability of Fed policy easing after increased political pressure on the U.S. regulator. Lower short-term U.S. yields reduce the premium in favor of the USD, which supports GBP in the pair.
Domestic U.K. factors are neutral: the Bank of England remains data-dependent, but markets still assume the easing cycle in the U.K. will be more cautious than in the U.S. This expectations differential works in favor of the pound in the near term, unless distinctly dovish signals emerge from London.
Key risks for GBP bulls are unexpectedly hawkish BoE remarks or a strong block of U.S. data, both of which could hand back the initiative to the dollar. For now, the balance of fundamental drivers—from Fed expectations to risk sentiment—supports a scenario of moderate GBPUSD appreciation.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.34500, SL 1.33750, TP 1.35500
BTC Professional Market Movement Analysis🏗️ How Market Moves
Liquidity Grab at Support 🟢
Price dips into the 112K zone to collect liquidity (stop-hunts + institutional buys).
Market shows wick rejections & volume absorption.
This is where smart money positions for the next leg higher.
Expansion Phase 🚀
After liquidity grab → market expands upward.
Price pushes aggressively toward the 124K resistance.
This movement is fueled by trapped sellers covering shorts + buyers entering late.
Resistance Reaction 🔴
At 124K zone, market faces supply.
Either:
Rejects and falls back toward support (range continues).
Breaks through → signals strong bullish continuation (trend shift).
📉 If Support Fails
If BTC closes below 111K, it means liquidity is not enough.
Market will seek the next major demand zone (100K) where bigger orders sit.
This creates a stop-hunt + deeper accumulation before a new push higher.
🧠 Pro Definition
Market does not move randomly — it moves from liquidity pool to liquidity pool.
BTC is currently collecting orders at 112K support.
Expect a bounce → expansion → test of 124K supply.
If 112K fails, price will seek deeper liquidity near 100K before rebounding.
⚡ In simple terms:
👉 Market first hunts liquidity at support 🟢,
👉 then expands upward toward resistance 🔴,
👉 and finally decides — either reject back into the range or break higher for continuation.
#FTSE100 hits all-time high — what’s next, higher still?On August 22, 2025 , #FTSE100 closed at an all-time high of 9355.60 points . The main driver of growth was a surge of foreign capital, especially from U.S. investors seeking undervalued assets and boosting demand for UK equities. Defense and commodity companies led the rally, adding optimism amid strong corporate earnings and high dividends. Some bank stocks corrected lower, but the weight of industrial and export-oriented leaders was enough to push the index to record territory.
Why the FTSE 100 is setting new records: 5 growth factors:
Strong UK macroeconomic indicators: Steady GDP growth and a narrowing trade deficit reinforce the foundation for further #FTSE100 gains.
Inflow of foreign investments: Massive capital inflows from the U.S. and other countries have shifted focus and funds into UK equities, strongly supporting the index.
Outperformers among exporters and defensive sectors: Growth in defense, mining, and financial companies provided fundamental support to the index’s upward momentum.
Dividend appeal and low valuations: #FTSE100 offers high dividends and relatively low P/E ratios, making it attractive for investors seeking both yield and value safety.
Global diversification and resilience to local risks: The multinational structure of companies and dollar-based revenues shield the index from domestic economic and currency weaknesses, ensuring long-term stability.
The current #FTSE100 rally is the result of a powerful mix: foreign capital inflows, strength in defense and commodity sectors, and appealing dividends against a backdrop of moderate global rate policy. FreshForex analysts note that if investment flows persist and corporate leaders continue to deliver strong earnings and buybacks, the index may remain near record highs.
VIX- Cơ Hội Lợi Nhuận Vẫn Còn 37%++Investment Outlook
Reference Price: 34,850
Target Price: 48,000
Upside Potential: +37.7%
As one of the hottest gainers in 2025 with a breakout rally since July, the stock has already tripled from its base price. Yet, upside potential remains over 37%, supported by robust trading momentum and a market capitalization that has been re-rated to over VND 70 trillion.
VIX’s Q3 earnings are expected to be highly promising, as both its proprietary trading portfolio and margin lending activities continue to set new highs in line with the VN-Index’s more than 50% year-to-date surge.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 26, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is holding onto its gains after rising more than three-quarters of a percent in the previous session, trading around 1.1630 during Asian hours on Tuesday.
President Trump posted a letter on social media Tuesday morning announcing that he was removing Fed Governor Cook from the Fed's board of directors. However, Cook said she would not resign because there was no reason for her dismissal. “I will continue to fulfill my duties,” she added.
President Trump also warned that he could impose a 200% tariff on Chinese goods if China refuses to supply magnets to the US. In addition, Trump threatened “additional tariffs” and restrictions on the export of advanced technologies and semiconductors in response to digital services taxes that have hit US technology companies.
The EUR/USD pair is strengthening as the euro (EUR) receives support after the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled a pause in monetary policy easing amid a strengthening labor market in the eurozone. Meanwhile, details of the agreement between the EU and the US indicate that a 15% tariff will be imposed on most European goods, while cars, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors may be exempt from tougher US duties.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1655, SL 1.1585, TP 1.1765
NZDCHF: Downtrend MomentumSimilar to NZDCAD, there's a very similar signal on NZDCHF.
Daily Timeframe:
Unlike with NZDCAD, price broke through support very cleanly. It is currently holding below with no indication of a fakeout.
Likewise, EMA20 remains firmly below EMA60, which is the other indication that this is a downtrend.
Hourly Timeframe:
I use an ascending intraday trendline to indicate when the counter-trend movement is coming to an end. As price breaks below the intraday trendline, that's a good indication of confluence in the overall trend direction.
The EMA crossover is not great, which is a little bit of a concern to me. Will need to reduce risk and potential scale into a position depending on how this trade goes.
NZDCAD: Price Holding Below SupportNZDCAD has been in a messy daily range. The daily levels do not hold cleanly. However, I do think there's an opportunity here regardless.
The first trendline break indicates weakness. The second trendline break is cleaner as price is able to hold below this level on the daily timeframe.
Looking at the intraday timeframe, I plotted a trendline to look for confluence. Price crosses below this trendline and is somewhat supported by an exponential moving average crossover.
There is an opportunity to scale into this trade provided that it starts trending cleanly.
Zydus Lifesciences: Premium Valuation, Solid OutlookZydus Lifesciences Ltd. (NSE: ZYDUSLIFE), one of India’s most respected pharmaceutical giants, is at a crucial juncture where technical breakout signals align with solid fundamental strength. Let’s dive deeper into its techno-fundamental outlook.
🔹 Fundamental Snapshot
CMP (25 Aug 2025): ₹1,023
Market Cap: ~₹1 lakh crore
P/E Ratio: ~22.4 (slightly above historical average of ~21.6)
P/B Ratio: ~4.2–4.7
Dividend Yield: ~1.1%
ROE / ROCE: 21.2% / 24.3%
Debt-to-Equity: 0.13 (low leverage)
Current Ratio: 1.9 (healthy liquidity)
EPS (TTM): ~₹45.4
Growth Metrics:
Revenue CAGR (5Y): ~10%
Profit CAGR (5Y): ~26%
Profit CAGR (3Y): ~2% (showing a slowdown recently)
Valuation Insight:
Intrinsic value estimates range from ₹748–₹814, implying the stock trades 25–27% above fair value.
👉 Fundamentally, Zydus is financially strong and consistently profitable, but valuation is on the premium side.
🔹 Technical Analysis
The daily chart (shown above) highlights a large Inverse Head & Shoulders (H&S) formation, typically a bullish reversal pattern.
Left Shoulder: Nov 2024
Head: Apr 2025 (major bottom around ₹800.5)
Right Shoulder: Aug 2025
Neckline Breakout: Around ₹1,000–1,010
Key Levels
Reversal Zone (Support): ₹977–₹993
Immediate Resistance (R1): ₹1,100
Next Resistance (R2): ₹1,150
Major Resistance (R3): ₹1,240
📈 Technical Outlook:
The breakout above the neckline suggests momentum towards ₹1,100–₹1,150 in the short term, with the potential to test ₹1,240 in the medium term if volumes support it.
🔹 Techno-Fundamental View
Valuation: Trading at a premium, about 25% above intrinsic value, though supported by a strong balance sheet and product pipeline.
Profitability: ROE and ROCE remain strong, both above 20%.
Balance Sheet: Very low debt and solid liquidity provide financial strength.
Growth: Long-term CAGR is healthy, but recent three-year profit growth has slowed.
Technical Setup: Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout signals bullish momentum.
Upside Targets: ₹1,100 → ₹1,150 → ₹1,240.
Risk Zone: A breakdown below ₹977 would invalidate the bullish pattern.
🔹 Conclusion
Zydus Lifesciences presents a compelling techno-fundamental story:
Fundamentally strong with robust financial ratios, prudent balance sheet, and a global growth strategy.
Technically bullish, as the inverse Head & Shoulders suggests a strong reversal with clear upside targets.
However, with the stock trading above intrinsic value estimates, new investors should approach with caution—preferably on dips near the ₹977–₹993 support zone. For existing investors, this breakout could unlock the next leg towards ₹1,150–₹1,240.
Bitcoin will exit of triangle and then bounce up from buyer zoneHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Following a decisive breakout from a prior downward wedge, Bitcoin entered a phase of balance and consolidation that is currently forming a symmetrical triangle. This new market environment signifies contracting volatility, with the price being methodically squeezed between a descending resistance line and an ascending support line. The asset has reached a critical juncture, as it is now at the apex of this formation, where the ascending support line converges with a strong horizontal support level at 114400. The primary working hypothesis is a long scenario, based on the expectation of a 'fake breakdown' or 'liquidity hunt'. It is anticipated that the price may briefly dip below the support line and into the buyer zone to trigger stops before staging a strong reversal. A swift reclaim of the 114400 level would be the ultimate confirmation of this bullish thesis, validating the original uptrend. This reversal is then expected to trigger a significant upward rebound. Therefore, the TP is logically placed at the 118000 level, as this represents a key area of prior price interaction and serves as a prudent first objective for a rally of this nature. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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EURCHF SELL SETUP SIGNAL Hello everyone, if we focus on the chart, we will see a possible head and shoulders formation, and we will also see a bullish flag indicating a decline. We also have a consolidation area at the top that was broken downwards to continue the decline, in addition to the German GDP (Sabe), which indicates a decline in the Eurozone, especially the selfish economy, the strongest economy in the Eurozone, which supports our analysis.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 25, 2025 USDJPYFollowing dovish-leaning Fed rhetoric, demand for the dollar has eased and U.S. yields have retreated, reducing support for USDJPY. The pair has pulled back from recent highs as markets price a September Fed cut, narrowing the U.S.–Japan yield spread and making long USD positions against the yen less compelling.
Japan’s recent macro data in August has been more resilient than expected, and the Bank of Japan continues a cautious normalization with an emphasis on wages and sustained inflation at target. Against this backdrop, a modest domestic impulse in Japan and lower U.S. yields support the yen. Another factor is the market’s sensitivity to potential verbal interventions from Japan’s Ministry of Finance if the yen were to weaken again.
Near-term, risks for USDJPY are skewed lower: a softer Fed, steadier Japanese data, and the authorities’ intervention risk management create a fundamental case for the pair to decline. Barring a renewed jump in U.S. yields, the probability of further yen strength remains elevated.
Trading recommendation: SELL 147.250, SL 147.950, TP 146.500
EUR/USD Long Setup: Riding the Wave After Powell’s Dovish TalkEUR/USD Long Opportunity Post-Powell Speech
Following Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the 2025 Jackson Hole Symposium, the EUR/USD is showing strong bullish potential. With the pair currently trading at 1.16626, I’m looking to enter buy positions targeting a move up to 1.18295. Key Points: Trade Direction: Strictly bullish. I see no reason to sell given the USD weakness post-Powell.
Entry Zone: Buying opportunities around 1.16626 or on a confirmed breakout above 1.1700.
Target: Aiming for 1.18295 (key resistance level).
Stop Loss: Place below 1.1597 to manage risk.
Market Context: The dovish Fed outlook supports EUR/USD upside, making this an ideal week for capturing momentum and passing prop firm trading challenges.
Risk Management: Use 1-2% position sizing to navigate volatility and ensure a favorable risk-reward ratio (targeting at least 2:1).
This setup offers a high-probability trade for swing traders and those aiming to pass funding challenges this week. Stay disciplined and monitor price action around key levels. Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. Always conduct your own analysis and consult a financial advisor.
XAUUSD Short: Sellers to Maintain Control at 3380 SupplyHello, traders! The macro structure for the XAU price auction has been defined by two critical pivot points, establishing a wide and volatile consolidation range. A major pivot point high was formed at the 3390 supply zone, while a subsequent pivot point low anchored the market at the 3300 demand zone. All price action since has occurred between these two dominant control zones, transitioning the market into a state of balance.
Currently, the price action is contracting within a large symmetrical triangle, signaling a compression of volatility. The auction is now at a critical inflection point, as it is directly testing the upper boundary of this formation. This area represents a powerful confluence of resistance, where the descending supply line and the horizontal 3380 - 3390 supply zone intersect, providing a key battleground for market participants.
The working hypothesis is a short scenario, predicated on sellers successfully defending this resistance confluence. It is anticipated that the price will make a final push into the supply zone before being rejected. A confirmed failure to break higher would validate the triangle's integrity and initiate a full rotation to the downside. The take-profit is therefore set at 3330, targeting the high-liquidity area where the ascending demand line converges with the horizontal demand zone. Manage your risk!
Is a Bitcoin correction still on the horizon?The chart below compares BTC price (blue) and US M2 money supply (yellow). Historically, Bitcoin’s movements have closely tracked changes in US money supply, often with a few months’ lag. With current trends suggesting a potential divergence, a market correction could still be on the table.
Curious to hear your thoughts, where do you see Bitcoin heading next?
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