XAUUSD Long Thesis: Triangle Support Bounce to Target 3380Hello, traders! The recent history of the XAUUSD price auction has been defined by the establishment of two major pivot points, which have set the boundaries for the current market structure. A significant pivot point low was formed near the 3300 demand zone, which initiated a rally that was subsequently capped by a pivot point high at the 3390 supply zone. This sequence has transitioned the market from a directional phase into a period of balance and consolidation.
Currently, XAU is consolidating within a large symmetrical triangle, a pattern signifying equilibrium and contracting volatility. The price is being methodically squeezed between a descending supply line and an ascending demand line, indicating that energy is building for a significant move. The market is now in a corrective pullback, heading towards the ascending demand line for what is expected to be a critical test of buyers' resolve in this structure.
The working hypothesis is a long scenario based on a successful defense of the triangle's lower boundary. It is anticipated that the price will complete its corrective dip and test the ascending demand line, which originates from the 3315 demand zone. A confirmed bounce from this dynamic line would validate the pattern's integrity and trigger an upward rotation. The take-profit is therefore set at 3380. Manage your risk!
Analysis
Gold can continue to decline inside downward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The price action for Gold has been dictated by a large downward channel since the last major peak was established at the 3380 resistance level. This bearish structure has effectively contained the market, guiding it through a series of impulsive declines and corrective rebounds between its well-defined support and resistance lines. After the most recent upward rebound originated from the lower boundary of the channel, the price has been in a corrective rally, now approaching a formidable confluence of resistance. This critical area is formed by the intersection of the channel's descending resistance line and the major horizontal seller zone around 3380. The primary working hypothesis is a short scenario, which is based on the expectation that this powerful resistance will hold and cause the current corrective rally to fail. A confirmed rejection from this zone would validate the integrity of the downward channel and signal that the dominant bearish trend is set to resume. This would likely trigger the next major impulsive fall, which is expected to break through the immediate support level at 3330. Therefore, the TP for this continuation scenario is logically placed at the 3290 level, a target that represents a new lower low within the channel's structure and a prudent objective for the anticipated move. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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DHI: Fundamental Analysis +45%With 2024 revenue of $ 36.80 billions, D. R. Horton is an american homebuilding company. EverStock identifies a fundamental revaluation potential of + 45 %.
Valuation at 10.1 x net earnings :
Currently valued at $ 48.26 millions in market capitalization, D. R. Horton posted a profit of $ 4.76 billions in its latest fiscal year (2024).
Balance sheet and debt :
In the company annual report, tangible net asset value stood at $ 25.15 billions, giving a market capitalization / tangible net asset value ratio of 1.92.
The gearing ratio is good, at 0.24. (Total financial debt / net tangible assets valuation).
Current share price: 161.87 $
Target price : 235.36 $
Upside potential : + 45 % (including dividende income)
Dividend : 1.60 $ (0.40 $ per quarter)
Yield : 0.99 %
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 22, 2025 GBPUSDSterling is under pressure as the dollar stays resilient on expectations of cautious Fed messaging at Jackson Hole. Stronger components in recent U.S. business surveys tempered hopes for aggressive easing, while U.S. Treasury yields held above recent lows—typically a headwind for lower-yielding currencies such as GBP. The market continues to prefer U.S. domestic assets until Powell’s stance becomes clearer.
The U.K. backdrop offers limited offset: signs of softer domestic demand and a cooling labor market raise doubts about the economy’s ability to shoulder restrictive rates. Attention today also falls on government debt auctions and European business activity prints, which can indirectly affect risk sentiment and cable through broader capital flows.
With these forces intersecting, GBPUSD retains a bearish bias within today’s “stronger-dollar” narrative: yield differentials, guarded Fed expectations, and the pound’s sensitivity to global risk keep upside contained. Unless an upside surprise emerges from U.K. data or a distinctly dovish signal from the Fed, selling rallies with moderate targets remains a prudent tactical stance.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.34000, SL 1.34500, TP 1.33100
GBP/JPY - Breakout (22.08.2025)The GBP/JPY TRADENATION:GBPJPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 200.02
2nd Resistance – 200.42
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SITC: Fundamental Analysis +182%With 2024 revenue of $ 277 millions, Site Centers is an american owner and manager of open-air shopping centers. EverStock identifies a fundamental revaluation potential of +182 %.
Valuation at 1.2 x net earnings :
Currently valued at $ 622 millions in market capitalization, Site Centers posted a profit of $ 532 millions in its latest fiscal year (2024).
Balance sheet and debt :
In the company annual report, tangible net asset value stood at $ 505 millions, giving a market capitalization / tangible net asset value ratio of 1.23.
The gearing ratio is good, at 0.60. (Total financial debt / net tangible assets valuation).
Current share price : 11.83 $
Target price : 33.32 $
Upside potential : +182 % (including dividende income)
Dividend : Next dividende (special) 3.25 $ paid on 29 august
Yield : 27.47 % (special dividend)
Waiting for that next spark in Gold For now, TVC:GOLD price remains inside a couple triangle formations. We are waiting for the next big thing that could bring the precious metal out of its "shell" and send it upwards or downwards.
Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:GOLD
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
EURGBP short due to weak Euro area PMI and Strong UK PMI DataThe most recent Euro Area Services PMI data available is for August 2025, showing a value of 50.7, down from 51.2 in July 2025, and slightly below the forecast of 50.8. This indicates a slight slowdown in the services sector's expansion, as a reading above 50 still denotes growth, but the drop suggests a loss of momentum.
The most recent data for the UK Services PMI, specifically the S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI for August 2025, is 53.6, surpassing the forecast of 51.8 and improving from the previous reading of 51.8 in July 2025. This indicates a stronger expansion in the UK services sector, reflecting robust business activity.
Due to the above economic data result, we expect the Euro to weaken against the Pound.
This is a classic example of trading strong data vs weak data.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 21, 2025 EURUSDThe euro is trading around 1.16500 and remains under pressure due to persistently higher yields on dollar assets and the divergence in rhetoric between the Fed and the ECB. In the U.S., a “higher for longer” rate scenario persists amid the slow decline in core inflation and still robust consumer demand, which supports inflows into Treasuries and the dollar. Remarks from some Fed officials indicate that premature easing could destabilize progress on inflation, so the market maintains a premium for dollar rates.
In the euro area, the picture is softer: weak German industrial dynamics and downward revisions to growth and inflation forecasts reinforce expectations of further ECB easing over the coming months. The growth and yield differential continues to work against the euro, especially against the backdrop of a widening negative real-rate spread. Additional pressure comes from sluggish credit demand and companies’ cautious investment stance amid geopolitical uncertainty and high energy costs.
Fiscal debates in key eurozone economies increase the risk premium, whereas the U.S. shows more resilient macro dynamics: retail sales and the labor market remain strong enough to support the dollar. Taken together, this cements a fundamentally bearish tilt for EURUSD in the short term until signs appear of an accelerated U.S. cooldown or more hawkish signals from the ECB.
Trade idea: SELL 1.16500, SL 1.16700, TP 1.15500
AUDUSD: Breaks Below ChannelThere's a very strong channel that formed on CMCMARKETS:AUDUSDU2025 originating since February 2025.
On the daily timeframe, price tested the lower channel boundary at the beginning of August. At that time, price respected this channel.
However, this wasn't the case more recently when price broke below this channel boundary and closed below it.
Moving over to the hourly timeframe, I'm monitoring the price action. I plotted an initial low that price traded post-breakout.
If price crosses below this initial low and makes a new lower low, that's an indication that momentum is picking up. If price reverts back, then it's a classic fakeout and then we'll hold off on this trade as price reverts back into the channel.
FR40: Resistance BreakoutOn the daily timeframe, price tested a resistance level twice. The first time was in mid-July, which resulted in a strong bearish reaction.
The second time price tested the resistance was last and current week. There was barely any reaction, which leads me to believe sellers do not see this as an overbought area.
On the hourly timeframe, price did pull back slightly after crossing above the daily level. However, this is not a clear false breakout since price crossed above the intraday high rather quickly.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 20, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) recovered from a slight decline during the Asian session caused by mixed domestic data and on Wednesday showed positive dynamics for the second day in a row against the strengthening US dollar (USD). A government report showed that core orders for machinery and equipment in Japan unexpectedly rose in June. However, this was offset by a decline in Japanese exports in July for the third consecutive month, raising concerns about the outlook for the export-dependent economy. This added to uncertainty about the likely timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and triggered some intraday selling of the Japanese yen.
On the other hand, the US dollar is attracting some follow-up buying for the third day in a row amid a decline in the likelihood of more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is proving to be another factor providing some support for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, traders still consider it more likely that the Fed will resume its cycle of rate cuts in September. In contrast, the Bank of Japan is expected to stick to its policy normalization course and raise interest rates before the end of the year. This, in turn, could limit the US dollar's gains and help contain deeper losses for the lower-yielding Japanese yen ahead of the FOMC minutes release.
Trade recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 148.00, TP 146.20
EURGBP shorts due to higher than expected UK CPI y/y readingThe most recent UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2025 indicates an annual inflation rate of 3.8%, an increase from 3.6% in June 2025, marking the highest level in 18 months. Key drivers include rising transport costs and food inflation hitting a 16-month peak. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed to 3.7% from 3.5% in May 2025. The CPI index stood at 138.90 points in June 2025, up from 138.40 points in May.
As a result of the above date, we expect the EUR to weaken against GBP.
AUDCHF: Breaks Below Ascending TrendlineMy observations across the Daily (D1) and Hourly (H1) timeframes.
D1 timeframe:
My EMA20 is below the EMA 60. Price has ranged a bit longer than I anticipated, but we are now getting the indication that the downtrend is continuing.
Price is also below EMA20, which helps to signal momentum is picking up.
H1 Timeframe:
After price crossed below the daily ascending trendline, it stalled and then pulled back up. To some, this is a fakeout. To others, this is a liquidity trap.
I remained patient and found an opportunity to enter on the longer bearish bar, which shows price is pushing below prior lows after this breakout lower.
NZDUSD short due to as exptected interrest rate decion by RBNZDThe current benchmark interest rate in New Zealand, known as the Official Cash Rate (OCR), is 3.0%, as set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This follows a 25-basis-point cut from 3.25% on August 20, 2025, marking the lowest rate since August 2022.
Due to this result, we expect NZD to weaken against the USD.
XAU/USD - Bearish Flag Pattern (16.08.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3318
2nd Support – 3308
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EURUSD UPDATEAs you can see, EUR/USD has finally reached the upside target — the supply zone around 1.17000, where I identified an opportunity and entered short positions. This analysis was originally shared on August 3rd, and it has played out very well.
Currently, I have set three downside targets (marked with the red lines). At each level, I will closely monitor price action to decide whether to take partial profits. Depending on how the market reacts, I may also look for potential long entries in case of a reversal. If the market continues in my favor, I am satisfied with securing profits from the short trade.
$XAUUSD Mark-Up XAUUSD LTF Analysis - Aug 19
Analysis Notes:
On the 4H timeframe, the price has entered a ranging structure and is currently within the 4H IFC.
My expectation is that after the IFC is consumed, the price will move towards the weak high and the liquidity levels.
You can look for entry confirmations on lower timeframes.
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🔝 Score: 21 | Balance: ~$500k | Results: $49.3k→$756.5k (+1,535%, 16 trades; avg buy $830 / sell 3,613; age 67m; rating 136).
USDCAD potentail longs due to weaker than expected CAD CPI y/y The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025 showed a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 1.7%, down from 1.9% in June 2025 and below the forecast of 1.8%. The decline in headline inflation was largely due to falling gasoline prices, though food and shelter costs continued to push inflation higher.
Due to the weaker-than-expected economic data, we expect the CAD to weaken against the USD.
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 19, 2025 GBPUSDSterling is holding around 1.35 following the Bank of England’s “hawkish cut” in August: the BoE eased by 25 bps but signaled that subsequent moves will be cautious and data-dependent, with services inflation and labor-market cooling in focus. This guidance tempered expectations for an aggressive easing cycle and supported the UK curve versus the US, improving GBP’s relative appeal in the near term.
Recent UK data have been resilient, particularly in services, while wage growth is cooling more slowly than the BoE would prefer. That gives the MPC room to “wait and see,” which markets interpret as supportive for the pound. An additional tailwind comes from the US side: rising odds of a Fed pivot weaken the dollar across the board, adding upward pressure on GBPUSD.
In the US, the short-term balance of risks tilts toward a softer dollar as investors concentrate on likely autumn rate cuts and signs of moderating growth. While periodic geopolitical jitters can lift the greenback, without a renewed hawkish push from the Fed such spurts tend to fade. Overall, conditions favor a gradual GBPUSD recovery from current levels.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.35050, SL 1.34750, TP 1.35650
EURO Breakout Alert- Long Setup In Play EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1660, showing strong bullish momentum after holding key support levels. The pair is forming higher lows, indicating sustained buying pressure. If price action maintains above 1.1650, the next upside target is 1.1700, with a potential extension towards 1.1730. Euro strength is driven by positive market sentiment and weakness in the dollar index. Watch for a clean breakout above 1.1675 for confirmation of further upside. Ideal buy entry remains around 1.1660 with stop loss below 1.1640. Short-term trend remains bullish as long as the pair stays above 1.1640.
GBPAUD – 4H FVG Rejection Could Trigger Bearish Move
On the 4H chart, GBPAUD is approaching a Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone near 2.0900 , where I expect sellers to step in. Price has already shown exhaustion signs, and if rejection happens, the downside path looks more probable.
With the 200 EMA still hovering below, a clean rejection from FVG could open the way for a move down to 2.0610 (expected target). If bearish momentum extends, the next level to watch will be around 2.0472 (Fib extension support) .
📉 Bias – Bearish from FVG rejection
📍 Key Resistance – 2.0900 FVG zone
🎯 Target Levels – 2.0610 → 2.0472






















