BITCOIN — THE MARKET IS APPROACHING ITS REAL DECISION POINTTraders,
We dumped. Now Bitcoin is grinding through a controlled recovery. The important question is not simply if we move higher. The real question is where the market will reveal its true intention. The chart is giving us a very clean map and the next major decision point is already forming.
1. The structure so far
Bitcoin sold off aggressively, found real buyers, and reclaimed the breakdown wick. That reclaim shows that the low was bought by spot demand rather than mechanical short covering.
Price is now pushing into a zone where the next expansion will be decided. The recovery itself is not the interesting part. The levels above and below are.
2. The major checkpoint above: 104k to 105k
This zone is extremely important. Two strong pieces of confluence meet here:
The 0.886 of the A to B retracement
The 1.618 extension of the impulse move you marked with the arrows
This creates a clean Potential Reversal Zone.
What this means:
If the market rejects 104k to 105k structurally, the next major destination becomes the lower imbalance cluster around 64k. That would be a true higher timeframe unwind because the entire path down is filled with thin volume and inefficient price action.
If Bitcoin breaks above 105k with flow support, then the next magnets open up immediately.
3. Targets above
If price accepts above the 104k to 105k PRZ:
First target area
Around 116k to 118k where we have a liquidity pocket and HTF inefficiencies.
Second target area
123k to 125k where a swing failure pattern is very likely. This is a weak high with resting liquidity and a natural magnet for price during bullish expansions.
At target two I expect the first serious reaction because of the liquidity sitting above the weak high.
4. Order flow confirms accumulation not distribution
Looking at the CVD grids:
Spot CVD is trending lower while price holds steady. This is a sign of absorption because someone is taking the other side of the selling.
Stablecoin margined CVD continues lower but without price following.
Coin margined CVD is sweeping lows with no breakdown in price.
This creates a hidden bullish divergence across the board.
Open interest also supports this view:
Stablecoin margined OI remains high which means traders did not exit during the dump.
Coin margined OI is slowly building which often appears before directional expansion.
This is not the profile of a market preparing for distribution. It is the profile of a market preparing for a move.
5. CME chart: AVWAP support from the last major swing
On CME, the AVWAP anchored from the previous major swing low to swing high is still holding as support. CME often leads during inflection zones. As long as this AVWAP holds, the market is positioned in a continuation PRZ rather than a breakdown PRZ.
If CME loses this AVWAP, the cascade scenario strengthens. As long as it holds, the bullish structure remains intact.
6. What happens if we break down instead
if Bitcoin fails to reclaim structure and breaks back down, the following levels become active:
83k to 84k
This is the shallow retrace zone and the first structural catch.
81k to 82k
This area contains the 1.113 extension and a previously unfilled FVG.
79k to 80k
This is the 1.272 level and a strong imbalance pocket.
72k to 73k
This contains the 1.414 extension and the next clean liquidity cluster.
64k
This is the 1.618 extension and the final major downside target. It aligns with the strong HTF imbalance that has never been fully tested.
A rejection from 104k to 105k can eventually lead price through these levels in sequence because the entire zone from 90k down to 70k contains thin volume. There is not much structural support built on the way up.
7. Real time confirmation tools
Watch these signals when we approach the 104k to 105k decision zone:
Spot CVD rising means continuation likelihood increases
Funding staying negative means shorts are still stuck
OI rising with price means momentum is building
CVD stalling or rolling over at 104k to 105k means rejection risk is high
CME AVWAP reclaim or failure will guide direction
If buyers hold flow above 105k, the path to 117k and then 124k is clean.
If buyers fail and we reject 105k with aggressive selling, the path down becomes active.
Final view
Bitcoin is approaching one of the most important technical levels on the chart.
We dumped on real flow.
We recovered on spot demand.
Now the market is converging toward the 104k to 105k PRZ where a true decision will be made.
Break above and the next magnets are 117k and 124k with a likely swing failure at the second target.
Reject and the lower zones activate with 64k as the eventual HTF destination.
This is the map. The levels are clear.
TLDR
BTC is recovering with spot support
104k to 105k is the major PRZ
Break above: targets at 116k to 118k and 123k to 125k
Reject here: downside levels at 83k, 82k, 80k, 73k and 64k
Order flow is showing hidden bullish divergence
CME AVWAP is holding which keeps the bullish narrative alive
The market leaves its footprints long before it shows its direction. Read the sands, follow the flow and stay prepared.
- ThetaNomad
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If you enjoy this style of analysis feel free to leave a like or comment. It lets me know you find value in these deeper structural and flow based breakdowns.
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