Fundamental Market Analysis for November 27, 2025 USDJPYThe yen firms on two overlapping forces: markets lean toward a gentler U.S. rate path next year, and Japan preserves the prospect of further normalization of monetary settings supported by wage agreements and stickier domestic prices. As U.S. Treasury yields edge lower, the relative appeal of dollar assets versus the yen decreases, pressuring the pair.
The risk of official comments from Japan’s financial authorities on the exchange rate also discourages aggressive dollar buying at elevated levels. The market remains sensitive to verbal signals and to willingness to prevent excessive volatility. Attention stays on Japanese government bond yields: a narrower U.S.–JGB yield premium reinforces downward pressure on USDJPY.
Holiday-thinned U.S. liquidity and month-end rebalancing can magnify reactions to news. In this setup, the pair retains scope for a corrective pullback if there are no fresh firm signals from the U.S. side and Japanese data remain neutral, with ongoing progress on inflation and wages supporting the yen over the medium term.
Trading recommendation: SELL 156.050, SL 156.350, TP 155.150
