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XAU/USD (Gold) - Trendline Breakout (US - CPI Data) (11.09.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 3583 2nd Support – 3546 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
39
GBP/USD - Breakout (US - CPI Data) (11.09.2025)The GBP/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3475 2nd Support – 1.3441 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
27
CADCHF: Trend Continues Below Daily LevelCADCHF is beginning to show confluence, which gives me an opportunity to frame my entry opportunity. Here are the key observations across the daily and H1 timeframes. Daily Timeframe: Price made a strong break below the HTL and is holding below it. Although two bullish bar formed, they did not engulf the previous bearish bar, which is a good indication that buying strengh just isn't there. H1 Timeframe: There's quite a bit of confluence on the H1 timeframe with the first being price entering and exiting the potential supply zone. In addition, price is about to cross below the ATL, which is another sign that the counter-trend move is ending. Finally, there's confluence with the moving averages where EMA20 is crossing below EMA60; price is also beginning to cross below EMA20.
Short
by FinancialGamblR
3,417 – 3,360 (final defense for buyers).1. Price Structure Gold has surged strongly from 3,360 → 3,657, forming a steep uptrend inside a rising wedge channel. Currently, price is near the upper boundary of the wedge and has just made a pullback. 2. Pattern & Technical Signals A rising wedge pattern is visible, which often signals downside pressure when price touches the upper boundary. The recent candlestick shows a long upper wick, indicating strong selling pressure around the 3,657 top. The blue arrow on the chart highlights a potential correction back toward the wedge’s lower trendline. 3. Fibonacci Support Levels From the rally 3,360 → 3,657: Fib 0.786 = 3,573: short-term support, likely to be tested. Fib 0.618 = 3,508: key medium-term support. Fib 0.382 = 3,417: if this breaks, the short-term uptrend could reverse. Red zone (3,360 – 3,417): a strong demand zone, may attract buying interest again. 4. Possible Scenarios Scenario 1 (primary): Price continues to correct down toward 3,573 – 3,508, then rebounds if the trendline holds. Suitable for trend-following buys if reversal signals appear around the 0.618 Fib. Scenario 2 (breakdown of wedge): If price breaks below the wedge and Fib 0.5/0.382, it could drop back to 3,360 – 3,417. In that case, the short-term bullish trend weakens → short opportunities may open up. 5. Conclusion Gold is currently in a correction phase after a strong rally. Key levels to watch: 3,573 – 3,508 (decisive for holding or losing the uptrend). 3,417 – 3,360 (final defense for buyers). 👉 Short-term: wait for price action signals around 0.786 – 0.618 Fib zone to consider buying with the trend. 👉 Medium-term: if 3,417 breaks, bearish momentum could return.
TVC:GOLD
by AstronautPioneer
GBPUSD Bullish or Bearish?Hi Traders! When analyzing this chart, price made a move to the downside making a low at 1.34000, came up to test 1.36000 to then revisit a daily OB at 1.32000 creating a bearish BOS. However, price didn't close below the previous daily OB low, and pushed back up to the resistance level at 1.36000. Price is now sitting in a range. If a long presents itself, I would like to see a daily CHOCH happen, price closed above 1.36000 with strength (not just a wick), follow through with bullish confirmation, and 1.36000 retest/new support. Therefore, IMO, this move can still be viewed as a retracement within a bearish structure. For now, I'm waiting for price to show me a solid direction. Good Luck to all! *DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
by thattradergirl
AUD/USD - Bullish Channel (10.09.2025) The AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bullish Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 0.6636 2nd Resistance – 0.6658 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
36
Gold may move up a little and then start to declineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market for Gold has transitioned from a prolonged balancing phase into a strong directional trend, following a decisive breakout from its prior multi-week big range. This breakout, originating from the support area near the 3445 level, shifted market control firmly to buyers and initiated a new impulsive phase. The price action for XAU since then has been characterized by a steep, high-momentum rally, which is being guided by an ascending mirror line. Currently, the asset is at a new high, continuing to push upwards along this aggressive trendline. However, such accelerated trends are often unsustainable and can signal that the market is becoming overextended and due for a correction. I expect that after a potential final push higher, the price will stage a sharp reversal, with enough selling pressure to cause a breakdown below the steep mirror line. A break of this dynamic support would be the first confirmation that a corrective phase has begun. Therefore, the TP for this corrective scenario is logically placed at 3520 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
13
Reddit (RDDT): Undervalued AI Data Goldmine or Overheated Hype?Reddit (RDDT): Undervalued AI Data Goldmine or Overheated Hype? $300 Fair Value in Play? Reddit (RDDT) shares surged 4.44% to close at $240.20 yesterday, with pre-market trading pushing it to $243.70 today amid optimism over its AI data licensing deals and a 78% YoY revenue jump in recent earnings. Year-to-date, the stock is up 46.97%, but analysts are split—some see it undervalued by 26% with a fair value of $302 based on free cash flow projections, while others flag overvaluation at current levels. With a lawsuit over alleged privacy issues making headlines and Q3 earnings looming on October 28, is RDDT the undervalued growth play in social media's AI era, or just riding short-term momentum? Let's break down the fundamentals, SWOT, technicals, and scenarios for September 10, 2025. Fundamental Analysis Reddit's core strength lies in its massive user-generated content, positioning it as a key AI training data source with deals like OpenAI's integration boosting revenue. Recent Q2 results showed $499.6 million in sales, up 78% YoY, surpassing estimates, driven by ad growth and user expansion to over 100 million daily actives. Analysts expect EPS of $2.23 TTM, with forward P/E at 84.03, reflecting high growth premiums. However, a high PE of 107.71 and enterprise value/EBITDA of 291.25 suggest stretched valuations, compounded by a lawsuit alleging privacy violations. - **Positive:** - Surging revenue and user growth underscore AI data monetization potential; profit margin at 12.97% with $2.06B cash on hand. - Institutional interest rising, with market cap at $44.96B and levered free cash flow of $290.61M signaling operational strength. - **Negative:** - High debt/equity at 1.05% and ongoing lawsuit risks could erode investor confidence if macro slowdowns hit ad spending. - Sticky inflation and Fed rate uncertainty may pressure growth stocks like RDDT if AI hype cools. SWOT Analysis Strengths: Dominant in user-generated content for AI datasets; strong revenue growth (78% YoY) and cash reserves ($2.06B); loyal community driving organic traffic. Weaknesses: Elevated valuations (PE 107.71) amid profitability challenges; history of operational issues like site outages; dependency on ad revenue vulnerable to economic dips. Opportunities: Expanding AI partnerships (e.g., data licensing deals); global user base growth in emerging markets; potential for new features like premium subscriptions amid digital ad boom. Threats: Intensifying competition from TikTok and Meta; regulatory scrutiny on data privacy (e.g., ongoing lawsuit); market volatility if Fed delays rate cuts. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, RDDT is in a rising trend channel after breaking out from $223 support, with volume spiking on earnings momentum but now consolidating near all-time highs. This follows a 52-week range from $55.84 to $253.14, with the stock up over 300% from April lows. Current price: ~$243 (pre-market), pivoting around $240. Key indicators: RSI: At 68.60, bullish but nearing overbought—watch for pullback if it hits 70. MACD: At 12.35 with positive histogram, signaling sustained upside momentum. Moving Averages: Price above 21-day EMA (~$230) and 50-day SMA (~$220)—golden cross intact for bull bias. Support/Resistance: Support at $223 (recent low), resistance at $253 (all-time high). Patterns/Momentum: Rising channel targets $260 on breakout; higher highs confirm trend. 🟢 Bullish signals: Strong buy per technical summaries. 🔴 Bearish risks: Overbought RSI could trigger correction. Scenarios and Risk Management Bullish Scenario: Break above $253 on positive lawsuit resolution or AI deal news targets $260–$302; buy on pullbacks to $230 support. Bearish Scenario: Drop below $223 eyes $220 (50-day SMA); watch for death cross if macro data disappoints. Neutral/Goldilocks: Range-bound $223–$253 if earnings guidance is mixed. Risk Tips: Use stops at $220 (2% below support). Risk 1-2% per trade. Diversify to avoid tech sector correlations—pair with stable assets like bonds. Conclusion/Outlook Overall, bullish bias if RDDT holds $240 and leverages AI tailwinds, affirming its undervalued potential with 25%+ upside to $302 fair value. But watch October earnings and privacy lawsuit for confirmation—this fits September's growth stock rotation amid Fed cut optimism. What’s your take? Bullish on RDDT's AI edge or bearish on valuations? Share in the comments!
NYSE:RDDT
by DCAChampion
BNBUSDT — Bullish consolidation ahead of resumed uptrendThe bullish consolidation in BNBUSDT that I’ve been watching has begun to resolve in the market’s favor. Price action is coiling after two consecutive white spinning-top candles, a pattern that signals indecision but also a readiness to resume the prior trend when confirmed. The move has occurred on heavier volume concentrated in the current price area, and the pair sits roughly halfway between two key Fibonacci retracement levels — a location that commonly precedes a corrective bounce rather than a full trend reversal. Trend Strength sits just above zero, suggesting a fragile bullish bias rather than conviction. Viewed on a slightly wider timeframe, BNBUSDT is grinding inside a shallow range that resembles a consolidation brick; the path of least resistance still leans toward the upside provided the short-term structure holds. Conventionally, the presence of consecutive indecisive candles on increased volume near mid-Fibonacci territory combined with a mildly positive momentum indicator favors a corrective rebound rather than an extended sell-off. Key short-term levels to monitor on the way up are the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as the likeliest target for the initial bounce, with a secondary cap at the 50% retracement if buyers show enough follow-through. Beyond those, a return toward prior highs remains plausible, though that area will present a zone of elevated resistance and will need clear volume-backed breakout confirmation to be trusted. RSI and other momentum readings are consistent with a measured recovery rather than an impulsive surge, so expect the move to unfold over the coming 2–3 weeks. If the market fails to sustain above the 38.2% level and momentum turns down, the alternate scenario would be a continuation of the consolidation or a deeper retracement toward the lower Fibonacci boundary. Short summary: Setup : consolidation with two white spinning-top candles, heavier volume locally, price midway between two Fibonacci levels, Trend Strength slightly > 0. Base case : corrective bounce to 38.2% (primary) — up to 50% (maximum) — then continuation higher toward prior highs (resistance zone). Timeframe : ~2–3 weeks.
Long
by dPEngineering
GBP/AUD - Triangle Breakout (08.09.2025)The GBP/AUD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 2.0493 2nd Support – 2.0457 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
30
BROAD PICTURE OF EIGENHı guys how are u? I assume that you are good after the last rally analysis of EIGEN. I made this chart not for direction but for possibilities. Green support line is a only assurance of me, under that line it is very hard to take risk for bull season. I believe green direction arrows will work and we will see a huge movements after red resistance zone. for now take care. I shared this post not because it is a well staged setup but motivation for myself. So always manage your own risks, My charts are not investment advise
Long
by BayirKurdu
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 10, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is fluctuating within a narrow trading range against the US dollar during Wednesday's Asian session amid mixed fundamental signals. Expectations that domestic political uncertainty could give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) more reason to slow down interest rate hikes, coupled with optimistic market sentiment, are undermining the yen's position as a safe-haven currency. In addition, the overnight recovery of the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday helped the USD/JPY pair recover from its daily decline and return closer to its August low. However, yen bears seem reluctant to make aggressive bets amid a growing understanding that the Bank of Japan will stick to its policy normalization course. On the contrary, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to resume its cycle of rate cuts next week, which could hinder the growth of the US dollar. In addition, diverging expectations regarding the policies of the Bank of Japan and the Fed could play into the hands of the lower-yielding Japanese yen and help limit the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Traders may also prefer to refrain from action ahead of Wednesday's US producer price index (PPI) release. Trade recommendation: SELL 147.20, SL 147.65, TP 146.00
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDSEK: Trend ContinuationUSDSEK is one of the latest pairs to break below a key daily level. Here's my analysis on both the daily and intraday timeframes. Daily Timeframe: EMA20 is below EMA60, which indicates that this is a downtrend. Price crossed below the horizontal trend line (HTL) and then a bullish bar formed that remain below the HTL. H1 Timeframe: Price entered a supply zone, and seemed to hold below it. Price also crossed back below the EMA20, signaling confluence with the overall daily downtrend.
Short
by FinancialGamblR
Gold - Sell positions are on the table for a short time🟡 GOLD – Multi-Timeframe Breakdown 🔎 Bias: Bullish, waiting for retracement The higher-timeframe trend remains bullish, but price is showing signs of cooling off after tapping into supply. The focus is now on identifying optimal discount zones for continuation buys. 📅 Weekly View (W1) Strong break of structure (BOS) to the upside. Price created a new swing high above resistance. Expectation: pullback into swing range before continuation higher. 📊 Daily View (D1) Major resistance at 3,650 has held initially. Price is riding a bullish trendline with clean demand zones below. Daily demand at 3,500–3,520 remains valid for a deeper correction. ⏱ 8H View Price rejected major resistance and is now retracing. Sitting just above 3,600 support. Demand zones layered beneath, aligned with lower-TF confluence. ⏱ 1H View Clear 3-zone setup: Buy Zone 1 (Shallow) → 3,610 Buy Zone 2 (Preferred) → 3,590 (aligns with 71% retracement + demand) Buy Zone 3 (Deep) → 3,570 liquidity grab before reversal Current PA suggests sellers may push lower before buyers step in. 🎯 Trade Plan Wait for retracement into Buy Zone 2 (preferred level). Watch for bullish confirmation (candle reversal / liquidity sweep). Short-term target: retest 3,650 supply. Medium-term target: 3,700+ continuation if structure holds.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by jamesibartram
Gold Hits Record Highs: $3,600 per Ounce and Still Climbing!On September 5, 2025, gold reached new record highs — $3,599.77 per ounce — thanks to unexpectedly weak U.S. labor market data. This data reinforced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut, which traditionally supports gold prices by reducing the yield of alternative assets. 5 Reasons Why Gold Is the Main Asset of 2025: Expectation and implementation of Fed rate cuts: Weak U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations of a monetary policy easing, favorable for gold as it lowers alternative asset yields. U.S. dollar weakening: As the dollar depreciates, gold priced in USD becomes more affordable for holders of other currencies, boosting demand and prices. Rising geopolitical and economic instability : Growing global uncertainty drives investors into safe-haven assets, with gold remaining the traditional hedge against risks. Central banks’ active gold purchases : Central banks are diversifying reserves, reducing dollar holdings, and allocating more into gold — creating a steady base demand. Increased demand from ETFs and institutional investors : Rising inflows into gold ETFs indicate growing investor confidence in gold, further strengthening price dynamics. The main drivers of gold’s growth remain Fed rate cut expectations, dollar weakness, and active central bank gold purchases. The breakout above $3,600 per ounce has cemented gold’s status as the key safe-haven asset of 2025 . According to FreshForex , the current trend creates favorable conditions for opening long positions in XAUUSD while maintaining strict risk management.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 9, 2025 GBPUSDThe pound is strengthening as the market has virtually priced in a Fed rate cut in September, while the Bank of England remains inclined towards a longer period of restrictive policy. The interest rate differential supports GBP against USD, while UK macro data remains mixed but shows no signs of a sharp slowdown in consumer activity. The news flow since the start of the week reflects continued demand for risk assets, which also reduces the premium for the dollar. In the short term, traders are focusing on US inflation releases; moderate CPI will strengthen the case for Fed easing and widen the window for the pair to rise. From a flow perspective, interest in buying the pound is supported by the dollar index falling to recent lows and a decline in US real yields. Risks: unexpectedly strong US inflation data, negative surprises in UK spending and earnings statistics, as well as possible comments from MPC members in favor of earlier cuts. The base scenario is a continuation of the GBPUSD's upward drift amid a soft dollar. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.35600, SL 1.35200, TP 1.36500
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
INJ ANALYSIS🔮 #INJ Analysis - Update 🚀🚀 💲 We can see that there is a formation of Falling Wedge Wedge Pattern in #INJ and we can see a bullish movement after a good breakout. Before that we would see a little retest and and then a bullish movement. 💸Current Price -- $13.49 📈Target Price  --  $16.34 ⁉️ What to do? - We have marked crucial levels in the chart . We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. 🚀💸 #INJ  #Cryptocurrency #Breakout #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
EUR/USD breakout buy alert EUR/USD Buy Opportunity Current Price: 1.17500 📈 Buy Entry Active — Targeting higher levels ✨ Euro showing bullish momentum against USD. ✨ Buyers are holding strong support at 1.17500. ✨ Upside pressure is building for a breakout. ✨ Trend indicates further gains ahead toward key resistance. ✨ Market sentiment favors the Euro as strength continues. ⚡ Stay with the buyers — momentum is on your side! --- Do you want me to add specific target levels (like TP1, TP2, SL) to make it look more like a professional signal?
Long
by SadarExplore
27
USDSEK: Trend ContinuationUSDSEK looks to resume its downtrend. This is observable based on the daily and 1-hour timeframe confluence. Daily Timeframe: Starting on the daily timeframe, EMA20 rests below EMA60, with price hovering below EMA20. This indicates that the overall trend is down. In addition, price recently made a clean break below the horizontal trendline (HTL). It then tried to trade above it with no success. 1-Hour Timeframe: Over on the lower timeframe, we see confluence as well. Price crosses below the ascending trendline, which indicates the overall trend is resuming. There's alignment on the daily and 1-hour timeframes. My entry is based on the consolidating range that formed after the price pullback. Price is now breaking out of this range, which signals that momentum is picking up.
Short
by FinancialGamblR
Heritage Food - Dairy Product going to become a Brand - Go LongGST relief for dairy products The revised GST rates, effective September 22, are set to benefit the organized dairy sector significantly. Key changes include: UHT milk: reduced from 5% to 0% Butter, ghee, cheese: cut from 12% to 5% Paneer: brought down from 5% to 0% This move is expected to make packaged dairy products more affordable, boosting demand across India and giving a direct push to branded players. Heritage Foods among key beneficiaries As one of India’s prominent dairy firms, Heritage Foods is poised to benefit from lower tax incidence, potentially improving sales volumes and consumer reach. The announcement also sparked optimism across other dairy counters such as Hatsun Agro, Parag Milk, Dodla Dairy, Umang Dairies, and Nestle India (value-added dairy portfolio). FMCG majors like Britannia and ITC are also seen as indirect beneficiaries. Market outlook Brokerage houses believe the GST cuts are a strong positive catalyst for the dairy industry, aiding profitability and consumption growth. Investors now await Q2 results to see the real impact of the new tax regime on revenue momentum. Record Revenue: Q1 FY26 delivered the highest ever quarterly revenue at INR 11,368 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth. Management attributes this to “strength of the core business and agility of our supply chain networks”. Profitability: EBITDA: INR 739 million, margin at 6.5%. PAT: INR 405 million, margin at 3.6%. Margins were “softer due to seasonality, input cost inflation and a temporary product mix shift”, but are expected to “normalize in coming quarters as volume-led operating leverage kicks in.” Brand & Product Initiatives 360-degree Brand Campaigns: Rolled out across Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. Notable campaigns for curd (season three) and first-ever milk brand campaign focused on “purity.” Heritage Livo Platform: Launched fortified flavored milk (vitamins A & D) and high-protein yogurts. Targeting “growing health-conscious consumer segment.” Margin & Cost Dynamics Input Costs: Raw milk procurement price up 4.74% YoY, “a tad higher than what we would have liked, but nothing extraordinary.” Sequential increases in procurement prices due to lean seasonality (May–June). Management chose to “hold price increases to ensure volumes stay strong” in April–May, especially for VAPs. Gross Margin Analysis: Margin knock (160–180 bps) attributed to VAP mix decline, not bulk fat losses. Standalone VAP (ex-fats) share: 36.1% vs 37.5% YoY; management expected 39% if growth had continued. Lower volumes in VAPs led to suboptimal cost absorption and plant utilization. June saw normalization; July onwards expected to be “normalized.” Inventory & Working Capital SMP Inventory: 6,197 MT as of 30 June 2025 vs 4,586 MT YoY. Higher stock due to lower consumption in Q1 (VAP demand hit); expected to be consumed in Q2–Q3. Working Capital: Cycle days at 19 (inventory: 35 days, receivables: 3 days, payables: 17 days). Commitment to maintain <20 days, aided by B2C model and fresh nature of products. Industry Headwinds: Q1 impacted by “erratic monsoon and unseasonably cool summer,” leading to VAP demand shrinkage and margin softness. Management expects “normalization” as volumes recover and operating leverage improves. Milk supply expected to be stable; procurement prices may see minor increases but “nothing extraordinary.” SMP inventory to be absorbed in Q2–Q3 as VAP demand recovers. Growth Guidance: No formal guidance, but management aspires to return to 15–16% revenue growth and ~20% VAP growth for FY26, assuming normalization of demand. EBITDA margin expected to recover by “at least a percentage correction.”
NSE:HERITGFOODLong
by EquityandSecurity
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 08, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is starting the new week on a softer note, dropping below the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session. However, the decline does not look convincing, which calls for caution from bearish traders and positioning for a continuation of Friday's pullback from the 1.35550 area, or a nearly three-week high. The US Dollar (USD) is gaining positive momentum and pulling away from its low since July 28, reached on Friday in response to disappointing US employment data, which in turn is putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The rise in the USD can be attributed to the fall of the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid domestic political turmoil and risks fizzling out rather quickly amid growing bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below consensus forecasts. In addition, revisions to previous data showed that the economy lost 13,000 jobs in June, the first monthly decline since December 2020, indicating a weakening U.S. labor market. This has fueled speculation of a more aggressive Fed interest rate cut and should limit the USD's rise. The British Pound (GBP), however, may struggle to attract significant buyers amid financial uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget in November. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.34950, SL 1.34750, TP 1.35950
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold 1H Outlook | Key Levels to Watch – 3595 | 3625 | 3470Gold is trading near 3594 after a strong bullish move. On the 1-hour chart, price has been following a rising trendline which shows that buyers are still active. Here’s what matters for traders today: 🔹 Key Support Levels: 3560 → intraday support where buyers are stepping in. 3525 → major structural support + trendline confluence. 🔹 Resistance Zones: 3595 → first resistance, market is already reacting here. 3625 → next upside objective if buyers stay in control. 📌 Bias: As long as price holds above 3525, gold remains bullish. Upside path: 3595 → 3625. A confirmed break below 3525 would mean a shift in structure. In that case, sellers may push price towards 3470
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SmartAlgoFX
CBDCs, Cryptocurrency, & the coming Redenomination RevolutionDisclaimer: this is not financial advice - this is strictly speculation and scenario planning, and totally not drawn on privileged information from powerful people. Please consume responsibly. Let's set aside memecoins, rugpulls, and corpo coin acquisitions to focus on what actually matters: macro. I'm married to the money, so I follow macro wherever it goes. And it's going into CBDCs and cryptocurrency. You could say it started in the past 12 mos with the GENIUS bill, tariffs, BRICS' concept coins, etc but the truth is more devious than that. The macro perspective is much more than the flow of money, its the sentiment and interest of policy makers, national actors, and IGOs. In other words, groups that make money through passive taxation create macro conditions to control or create outcomes that influence how you make or spend money. They are interested in strategic payoff over cashing out. This means the way they look at crypto is different than retail and investors. As groups, you seek legitimacy for a profit payoff, they seek strategy for a power payoff. Fiat currency is not some platonic ideal willed into being by the laws of nature, it's entirely an instrument of the national interest. In other words, it exists only so long as policymakers find it strategically useful. So let's look at their strategy. For almost three years now, your world leaders and central bankers have been preparing for a reserve currency transition scenario. They've made sudden pivots to programmable currency R&D, they've been hoarding gold into CBs and taking extra steps to keep it quiet, they've been making strange comments about fantastical banking crisis scenarios, adjusting payment options for hydrocarbons (the USD is an international soft-peg), signaling the desired end of the dollar reserve (or oddly making protecting the dollar reserve part of their political platform), and building cross-border systems (BRICBridge/mBridge) to facilitate non-SWIFT or SWIFT legacy exchange/insurance/settlement capabilities. Certain essential economic entities in the West have been prepped as well but are not yet in position to disclose. Meanwhile, Ray Dalio is already identifying our monetary order as the primary vulnerability. He's not the only old rich person to notice. Buffet is done with markets by EOY. You could say that value investing is retiring. Contrary to popular opinion, this reserve currency transition will not take place as an Orwellian CBDC takeover or some BTC moon shot, but will instead be pitched as a redenomination opportunity - likely while GSIC banks are closed to customers (including ATM withdrawals and transfers and social payments or welfare services). Before I get into the why this will happen, let's briefly look at the fragility of the modern monetary system under fiat. If you think of the economic macrosystem as a living body, then you can understand, especially from recent memory, how a global infection could quickly bring just about everything to a halt. The lifeforce of the economic-being is the free-flow of USD. Powell has sufficiently proven this. In fact, you could almost argue the last 5 years have been the perfect demonstration of this gameplay loop. But you can't mistake the heart for the entire circulatory system. Liquidity is a digital dependency today. If the power goes out, there is no liquidity. If Window's crashes, there is no liquidity. If Crowdstrike gets hacked, liquidity is grounded (and air travel canceled). Liquidity is a luxury. It has been a luxury for all of human history. Only in times of conventional peace and American-led globalization have people begun to delude themselves otherwise. It will not work they way most think in tough times. Especially in our just-in-time widget meets server-based-bookkeeping era. The boardgame of money has never been flatter or more fragile. In an age of infinite KYC and a Bigger Brother, a major ATM corralito will not look like your Great-Grandfather's breadlines. Accounts will be electronically frozen (thus no withdrawals or personal payments) and social payments will be halted for several days or even up to several weeks (thus no welfare). Due to incredible complexity risk, capital controls will be applied like circuit breakers to shut everything down. This is how it will be done in major countries and how it has been done in small countries in recent years. M1 M2 M3 will be iced by natsec nitwits and placed under conservatorship. They will give you any and every excuse. Power outages, Russians, 4chan hackers, Iran, North Korea, Powell, Biden, a virus, weather, a disaster, Chyna, anything. They might even blame me. To be truly forward in global macro, having an understanding of financial securities is not enough. National securities are a necessary intersect. If the NYSE went down unexpectedly for a few days, it would in effect generate a "stroke" for the velocity of the USD. Only one link in the financial accounting chain needs to be halted to warrant shutting down the entire electronic transaction system. There is no fractal redundancy, so to speak - everything is connected and dependent on that largely centralized and live bookkeeping data feed, otherwise the whole body gets hospitalized. This is the great weakness of centralized finance and merchant services and I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir here. Only M0, select banking accounts (some community/credit & a chosen GSIC or two - IE, not Deutsch Bank), and alternative banking through cryptocurrency, will operate in that short window until your country's cartel sets a withdrawal rationing figure and initiates redemption options for the redenomination process. This process would likely involve the favorite GSIC (in the US) JP Morgan & the Post Office - giving national coverage to all area codes. You would convert your fiat, likely in cash and at a flat rate exchange that would be difficult for the layman to valuate, and receive the new notes. It could take several days to over a week before the rationing window is brought online. And even longer for the redemption system to be in place to convert federal notes to treasury notes (TL: CBDCs). These treasury notes will be backed by national assets - varying by nation, but always playing to their strengths. In the US, this means energy commodities, PMs, and the strategic crypto reserve and associated coins that service cross-border activity. The latter is the big money play, and has specifically been legalized through GENIUS to facilitate the merchant/business level transition when that occurs (the business-level redemption process will be aided by current crypto capability - which we will get in the DD section). I don't know if this board cares about PMs, but as a general standard, most nations that go through redenomination (a figure in the 100s) will opt to double or triple PM reserves (current standard is 20%), and will be interested in cross-border cryptocurrency (mBridge and/or crypto for BRICs, most of the G88, and potentially Eurozone). The reserve currency system under the US will come to an end at this point without any legal moves necessary to close the Federal Reserve. Initially, this will seem like a huge problem for the US alone. In reality, the opposite will be true. If you're a shoemaker in that pitiful collection of tourist destinations we call the EU, this is especially for you - because the fight over a national versus a continental currency solution could paralyze you all further. To wit, for the US and the world: it will likely mean the end of the housing market as a game of musical chairs, which will be the end of the global monetary system under its current paradigm for all major nations. Now I'm not trying to create fear and panic, even though that's the main thing this website does. No one will starve or get sent to the streets during a cash crash in a developed country in the contemporary era. The situation will start as a misunderstood market event. But there will be a Bretton-Woods tier recalibration at a national (likely international) level to follow shortly after. The "forum building" stage of this event has already begun. Tariffs are revealed to be part of broad but messy geopolitical strategy, the escalation of which will engage the monetary system itself (goods>ports>share listings>national bonds). You will see that sequence begin to play out in the months to come, especially after the Rio Reset dud and the Swiss paper metal tariff. Trump's "deals" with certain countries keep getting delayed or reneged. He will continue his holding pattern on this matter, switching between punitive and TACO to extend the tariff negotiation horizons. 1.Global Blocks The CCP are positioning to replace their dependency on the US-led Rules Based Order. When foreign policy suits and grey moustaches say 'RBO X' or 'US superpower Y', they mean reserve currency and maritime system dominance. It all comes down to coins and boats, as it always has. For our purposes, only the former is of interest (but buy all your high end electronics soon, because further tariff escalation will draw in shipping and port strategies - even if we freed up Panama beforehand). This isn't the right board for the investor note from hell, but all indications are a go for a reserve currency challenger framework to be officially announced Q4 or H1 of 2026. Most ongoing projects intend to connect commodities to currencies. This is necessary to build an alternative SDR. Certain nations and entities in the ME will be likely facilitators and front men for this framework (particularly to ease or lobby the G88). This is battlelines over bucks. Your favorite loose lips sink ships guy already came out rambling about it when he posted out of the blue about BRICs challenging the USD. I hope you all understand by now that when it wasn't a topic on Fox and Friends, then it's because he repeats what he is told in private. When China introduces a settlement CBDC (with Russian, various Eurasians + some MENA, and potentially Brazilian support), their international accounting will require reserves to be interchangeable with other CBDCs. These reserves will be similar to the Special Drawing Rights, but include commodities (particularly those favorable to the majority of partners; aka what they produce or already hold). This means more gold and possibly silver, to start (imagine going from 20% standard gold reserve holdings to 40/60 + 10 in silver). Later platinum, lithium, uranium, and other frontier tech minerals which will be increasingly valuable and likely included. Regardless, this transition will push Chinese investors (retail and institution) out of UST (even if the tariff threat has ended). It's not a reserve for them any more, it may even be illegal to hold UST over a certain amount. That could happen overnight. The inevitability of this sequence shouldn't be underestimated. Many of the big holders of US bonds, aka those with a stake in the ticker we call USD, are not friendly at best. Others are always looking for ways to hedge their risk. This is not the free-market as you understand it. It's being Eli Lilly but your biggest stakeholder is RFK Jr. You know that's not gonna last, right? For Europe, the reactive risk is closely related to disaster or conflict risk. Tariffs might be enough too. I'm leaning towards Germany or the UK accelerating the contagion for the broader continent. German manufacturing and energy are critically vulnerable. German PMI has been in effective contraction for 27 of the last 30 some months, and last year saw a record-breaking number of bankruptcies in the country. Both UK or Germany would handle an economic downturn poorly due to rising populist movements jumping on alternatives ( = national bond credit risk = currency vulnerability). The possibility of a second Brexit event following a commanding populist return is not priced in. Likewise, another pandemic or an expansion of Russia's war would lead to a tap out of EU economic unity. Annoyingly, the French and Germans are unlikely to search for an economic relief package of a conventional nature or one that is associated with American interests. In other words, they will be working with ME and Asia if the EU does not guarantee European continental harmony on a new Bretton-Woods framework (which I don't think they will). Japan also falls into the reactive risk category. The question is the cause package. They have no cushion and all it takes is a little shove. Yes they has a high savings rate, but purchasing power and their import dependencies (high-pop island country) negates any security they think that will provide. It's unlikely 3rd world exporters will keep the basic necessities flowing (think in terms of virtual water exports) for the next GFC or summer famine/disaster. 3rd world imports and access to cheap food underpins much of the shadow economy for Asia (see local news over rice cost) - so consumption would crash along with rising unemployment (uncaptured but real) - and the BOJ has no room to stop unemployment without sacrificing their national corporate champions (RIP Buffett) (and thus more unemployment in their zero-entrepreneurial environment). All of this is a pretzeled way of saying that conventional economic shocks could trigger the cash crash, or vice versa. Unconventional risk - like MENA cyberwar risks (who knows what blowback we might face after Iran), or even geophysical concerns like another "1000 year event" (happening every month now) but this time in a major financial area like Tokyo or SF (do you buy or sell disaster bonds in that scenario?). Suffice to say, the unconventional supporting fuel will be there. No one ever signals the big deflationary event to the greater public. But rest assured my fellow stallions, the leading signal flares for the USD are the health of the CNY, JPY & EUR. The rest is just conversation. As mentioned, the ensuing crash will be salvageable at a policy level, and thus not an inevitable depression, but only after the Bretton-Woods process comes to surface and settles, which could take most of 2026/27. This will be your golden crypto opportunity. 2.Opportunity DD Unlike the last global financial crisis, cryptocurrencies and blockchain tech are now an available solution for short term cash access and long term platform use. They are already a wedge in the US economy. People will vote with their wallets to protect their purchasing power by moving into liquidity (cryptocurrencies). Thus the demand for respective nations/regions to produce their own national digital currency to offset will rise. This isn't to say that physical coins (especially silver) won't be in a state of colossal demand (silver at 180 by 2029). But because most consumer and business transactions, debts, liabilities, taxes, etc still happen by digital bookkeeping, then cryptocurrencies (stablecoins in particular) will take priority until a national/international alternative is released. Which will come very quickly - likely by late summer of 2026. Crypto will remain bid as a trust arbitrage trade afterwards. I am providing this ahead of time, because a gradual buy in is the safest and most reasonable way to leave a mark on the market. TO OWN (in the interests of crypto): 1.PMs - physical ideally or by exposure to miners and mining ETFs. I have an 8,000$ price target for gold by 2029 (in 2025 dollars). I have 180$ price target for silver by 2029 (in 2025 dollars). Platinum = higher. I could go on and on about PMs. Decades ago I had a simple question: do prime mines sell gold and aggregates to government customers without reporting it? To answer that question, I am happy to report that I am still alive today. If you don't believe in internet magic money or virtual math money is too complicated, this asset is your first stop. It's a Golden Age. Take the hint. See KGC, GLD, GOLD & GDX. 2.Commodities - Lithium. Copper. Aggregates. Historically a great way to make money if you like buying Russian billionaires their yachts, creating nightmare company towns in central Africa, or funding "mining" companies that are fronts for the military industrial complex (MLM & MP = strong buy). 3.JVs - sophisticated only (which is a legal definition, not an aspiration). Not RE though (even utility related). All those watch-collecting power plant andy's on CNBC will make some money, but not as much as they think. 4.C-Word - WSB has the F-Word, Trump has the N-Word, and we have the C-Word. Again I'm preaching to the choir here, but it needs to be said anyway. As mentioned in the next section, there will be a valuation wild west period in which the shelf-stable stablecoins, other coins, and blockchain platforms will be used by developing countries and rich countries alike to fill in interoperability gaps and as a natural solution based on cost, availability, and immediacy for retail and small business needs. Only the most totalitarian countries, see Europe and China, will gatekeep over this. I strongly suggest buying and holding any digital currency currently settling it's legal hearings in the Southern District of New York. Or any digital coin holding company recently sued by the SEC (the Big Long will be the movie this time). And any that are based in the US via a foundation or corporation (IE, not BTC, which is owned and created by a British national), or start with letter X. Because {X} marks the spot, that's the DD. It is not a coincidence or accident the very first crypto Trump mentioned for the national crypto reserve was XRP - a coin he likely had never even heard off until hours before making that tweet. There was no BTC or ETH mentioned until spaces like this hurt themselves in confusion. Why? Because BTC was created by a British national who also owns a commanding share. ETH does not have the business or banking relationships or the payment efficiency edge - and again, founder residency (Russian/Canadian) and controlling organization (Swiss) are foreign. The XRP Ledger is strategically useful and the leading contender for cross-border activity. Cardano is of interest (and in relationship) to banks and governments around the world for tokenizing assets under the redenomination era. Virtually every traditional financial asset will be tokenized for legal, tax, and accounting purposes. That includes home and car ownership. Solana is a further potential where speed and cost matter most. Finally, though unmentioned by the tweet, XLM already has a CBDC use-case track record and should be considered as well. What else do XRP, ADA, SOL, and XLM have in common? American founders, with USA-based organizations. This isn't about jingoism, this is about strategy. You need to leave the history, anonymity, and grassroots community aspect behind for now. I agree that those attributes made crypto special in earlier eras, but it doesn't mean it will make you money in the redenomination era. It does not matter if your favorite Goonercoin has a better white paper or more airdrops. What matters is which coins are all-in on their chosen nations, and their efforts to generate relationships with banks, businesses, and governments associated with that respective nation. That is all that matters. You can rinse and repeat with your own countries, but I would focus on these aforementioned first, and then exchange to your local equivalent later. TO NOT OWN: 1.RE - will take the world's biggest beating when the EUR, USD, CNH, and JPY lose 30-40% of their value. The Reserve Recession event will be particularly painful for the elderly (pension+property) - thus adding to the pressure for CBDC solutions as a retirement welfare solution. In sum, the 30 year lending architecture will no longer exist. Many pensions will convert to digital currency systems. I wonder if that 401(k) inclusion recently has anything to do with this? 2.Sectors: all sectors except healthcare and industrials. Be wary of consumer staples and utilities, especially if you want to derisk your poorfolio from geopolitics. 3.Cash Accounts: don't be that guy who keeps 25k in his savings account. If you don't have a credit card, that's fine, but for everyone else, that money needs to be in physical assets, or intelligently invested. Remember, you aren't trading market volatility, you're hedging against monetary-systemic risk. 4.Other Currencies tied to the old monetary system - especially NIRPers. You could long the AUD/JPY, for instance, but don't own either via futures or ETFs (IE: FXE, FXY, etc - not even as a short). 5.Inflated Assets: in general, anything boosted by cost of money engineering (the modern monetary system function) will deflate. Lots of discretionary goods, luxury, travel, etc (Veblen goods). Investor Note: Do not expect cash to disappear. Those that engage in these cash crash predictions tend to be conspiratorial or hold prepper-mindsets. Those fear biases rarely align with reality. Besides a short ATM shock, cash will exist as usual during and alongside any monetary system transition, it will simply be a losing hedge. Ease of use redemption options at post offices and big banks will not be the only incentive for most people. Businesses and merchants will lead the way. As of this July, stablecoins are effectively legal in the US, when backed by the amorphously defined US Dollar (who's definition could change overnight with the right EO). This was a key green light to industry, giving them the option to navigate outside the conventional monetary architecture if need be - effectively defanging many potential capital controls for businesses. During the transition, businesses will quickly opt for the decentralized and reliable digital alternatives due to accountability, transparency, and availability - many options already exist to serve enterprises (unlike 07-08 monetary challenge), so this "free market" movement won't be entirely retail or consumer led. As mentioned before, don't be surprised if there is a prepared and proactive solution from the GSICs this time (unlike 08, which was reactive). 3.Outsider Information, Bessent, and the Golden Age: To summarize, crypto on the 'TO OWN' list will platform and support the CBDCs to come. Those free-market coins will present massive investment opportunities for several years to come. Eventually, you can and many of you will likely have to convert them to the digital winners of tomorrow, which will all be CBDCs. And yes, the US will eventually have a state-backed digital currency under the treasury via the redenomination process. It won't be called a CBDC because it won't be backed by a central bank, but a consortium of banks under the US Treasury, who's reserves will be required (gold) at far higher ratios than many CBs (2-3x current), but still held at the US Treasury. Will it be a golden dollar to serve the so-called Golden Age? Before he became president, Trump had a long record of statements and publicized deals that supported gold as an investment, in settlement, and as a part of a monetary system. If investors studied his ramblings the same way they study Powell's statements, they would see this. Either way, there will be an American CBDC at minimum, even if it's wrapped in golden foil and comes with QR codes on red hats. The Secretary of Fake Teeth knows this, and he and his foreign country comparables have planned for it. With all due respect to him, he was part of an all-star team of FX traders, the best of the best. They understand what makes or breaks nations from a currency standpoint and they have a track record of macro mania to prove it. He was the analytics mastermind behind Black Wednesday (NOT Druckenmiller or Soros). He's literally the currency guy (though gold was almost always his biggest position), and now in command of the top currency and the entire mirage of the modern monetary infrastructure as soon as Powell is out. He's the one who pitched the idea of a shadow Fed Chair. I don't know if he'll get that, but I do know he will get the next best thing: being remembered as the trader that successfully margin called the Federal Reserve. That's why he was chosen, he's going to oversee the biggest currency revolution in modern history. Simply put, over 88% of global GDP will be functional within a CBDC currency architecture according to the Atlantic Council's CBDC tracker, BIS industry research, and my own review - likely by the Q2 2026. That's a lot of imminent coverage for a reserve currency system replacement that wouldn't be needed for 20-40 years, according to modern economists (TL: wagies). Is it possible the people who facilitate cross-border cash flows in the billions know something consumers don't about the near-future status of our dollar reserve system? Or a matter of curiosity that a tracker like this is hosted on the preeminent US/EU think tank? Instead of, for instance, ronpaulgold.com-? The transition between the known reserve and liquidity system (USD dominance) to the upcoming digital cash systems of many qualities and styles (programmable currency playground) will constitute the largest global valuation crisis window ever. Even if, at first, only the M3 or M2 is replaced or two-tracked (in the USA). Even if they use some kind of national AI to help balance the exchange markets and oversee a new lending and credit model (spoiler: that's coming). Maybe it will be great in your country, maybe not. Ultimately, it's not a depression or a problem, not if you're prepared for it. That's my recommendation - to be prepared for an unexpected currency swap on a national or international scale unlike anything crapitalism has ever seen before. Upside to any downside: you make enough money and its hard to be depressed. Yes, there will be inflation, and everything will appear to fall (rise for room temp IQs) as the fiat cost of money paradigm goes offline and confusion around the redemption under redenomination structure is common for general consumers. But in purchasing power, certain commodities and cryptos will crab market instead of play dead for great vol plays, and in some cases, represent the last great financial investment opportunities. They are on the functionality shelf that some solution-makers will draw from, so rumor over their potential incorporation will drive tremendous spikes that will mint more millionaires from the lower classes than any other time in history. Some of you reading this will be in that cohort, I guarantee it. There is much more to be said about CBDCs, credit systems & lending, taxation changes, debt forgiveness, UBI/prebates, SWFs, and such - as all will fold into a new paradigm under programmable currency. It warrants another giant reddit thread that few will read, but you should have the right to know what neo-feudalists are planning with your money systems. From the Vineyard to the Hamptons to Jupiter Island, the dumb rich has become the dumb majority. Many of them will find out just how dumb the hard way. Wouldn't it be nice to know ahead of time? To not be caught off guard for once? The cypherpunks designed crypto for a scenario like this. It's the failsafe for when fiat inevitably fails. You may very well be able to hold most of your liquid wealth in cryptocurrencies over CBDCs. Maybe it depends on the year of adoption, or maybe your countries policies. But doing nothing is the only bad option, and its the choice most will make. Why take the flat risk of a programmable purgatory of software patches, invasive KYC, geofenced value, and conditionalized capital controls? Some of these CBDC solutions will not be sound, depending on your country. It's entirely possible they all lean authoritarian in implementation or inefficient and deflationary in practice. Don't comply without question. Thinking is still free. I'll give the same advice I'd give anyone in any era in any place on Earth: sound money = sound mind. I started retail trading before most of you were born, back when Metatrader was an advanced piece of software and worked with an IP from the isle of Dominica. I understand the appeal. Doing your own research, "working" your own hours, drawing an income from anywhere in the world. Of only being responsible for your own wins or your own loses. You had the choice between life as a broke serf or a broke merchant, and you chose the latter. Historically speaking, some of you made a smart bet. Lifelong wagies will never know what a privilege this has been. Win or lose, you took your own risks - you set fear aside to try your hand at making a fortune. There's a big trillion dollar bank account floating around out there and you only need to press the right buttons to withdraw as much as you like. That's the trading market. How cool is that? It's the pirate's life and I sincerely hope it continues. I don't want to log on to this board 10 months from now and see one big cleanup on aisle 9. That's why I'm here to do the needful for free. Thank you for reading my ZH parody. See you on the margins.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by CountofCoins