XAUUSD – Mid-Channel Rejection Near Key Supply ZoneGold has made an impressive recovery off the $3,250 zone, pushing back into the $3,380–$3,390 region — a key supply area which previously led to strong sell-offs.
We’re now sitting at the upper boundary of a 1H ascending channel and just under a significant resistance area seen on the 4H and daily timeframes.
Although bullish momentum is still present, price is showing early signs of exhaustion at this level — with small rejections forming and volume beginning to taper off.
The key zone to watch is $3,384 – $3,390. If price fails to break and close above this zone cleanly on the 4H, we may see a corrective pullback back toward the midline of the channel — or even a full retest of the lower boundary near $3,305 or $3,268 depending on momentum.
Bias: Short-term bearish / corrective – waiting for confirmation of rejection or bearish candle formation below $3,384.
Analysis
XAUUSD (Next 24 Hours) Technical Analysis Forecast1. Japanese Candlestick Analysis
4H/1H: Price opened at 3374.13 near critical resistance (3375–3380). Recent candles show bearish harami and dark cloud cover, signaling rejection.
30M/15M: Gravestone doji at 3374.13 indicates bearish pressure. Failure to close above 3375 confirms weakness.
5M: Three black crows pattern emerging, suggesting strong short-term momentum.
Outlook: Bearish reversal likely if 3370 breaks.
2. Harmonic Patterns
4H/1H: Bearish Butterfly Pattern completing at 3374.13 (D-point).
PRZ: 3370–3375 (confluence of 127.2% XA and 161.8% BC).
Fibonacci Ratios: AB=CD symmetry (3370–3375).
30M: Bullish Crab forming at 3355, but secondary to larger bearish setup.
Outlook: High-probability short entry at 3374–3375 with target 3340.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
4H: Wave 5 of impulse cycle peaked at 3374.13.
Structure: Completed 5-wave sequence from 3320 → 3374.13.
Corrective Phase: ABC pullback targeting 3320–3340 (Wave A: 3340).
1H: Sub-wave (v) of 5 ending at 3374.13. RSI divergence confirms exhaustion.
Outlook: Bearish correction to 3320–3340 within 24 hours.
4. Wyckoff Theory
Phase: Distribution (after markup from 3320 → 3374.13).
Signs: High volume at 3374.13 (supply), upthrust above 3380 failed.
Schematic: Phase C (markdown) initiating.
1H/30M: Spring at 3365 failed to hold, indicating weak demand.
Outlook: Break below 3365 triggers markdown to 3320.
5. W.D. Gann Theory
Time Theory
24H Cycle: Key reversal windows:
UTC+4: 10:00–12:00 (resistance test), 16:00–18:00 (trend reversal).
Square of 9: 3374.13 aligns with 0° angle (resistance).
Square of 9
3374.13 → Resistance Angles:
0° (3375), 90° (3385), 180° (3400).
Support: 45° (3350), 315° (3330).
Price Forecast: Reversal at 3375 (0° angle).
Angle Theory
4H Chart: 1x1 Gann Angle (45°) from 3320 low at 3350. Price above angle = bullish, but overextended.
1H Chart: 2x1 Angle (63.75°) at 3374.13 acting as resistance.
Squaring of Price & Time
Price Range: 3320 → 3374.13 (54.13 points).
Time Squaring: 54 hours from 3320 low → 3375 resistance (54 points = 54 hours).
Harmony: 3374.13 = Time Cycle Peak (24H from open).
Ranges in Harmony
Primary Range: 3320–3400 (80 points).
50% Retracement: 3360 (support).
61.8% Retracement: 3340 (critical support).
Secondary Range: 3340–3380 (40 points).
Key Levels: 3360 (50%), 3340 (61.8%).
Price & Time Forecasting
Price Targets:
Short-Term: 3340 (61.8% Fib, Gann 45° angle).
Extension: 3320 (100% of prior correction).
Time Targets:
First Reversal: 10–14 hours from open (UTC+4 14:00–18:00).
Second Reversal: 22–24 hours (UTC+4 22:00–00:00 next day).
Synthesized 24H Forecast
Bearish Scenario (High Probability)
Trigger: Break below 3370 (confirmed by 1H/30M close).
Targets:
T1: 3340 (61.8% Fib, Gann 45° angle).
T2: 3320 (Wyckoff markdown, Elliott Wave A).
Timeline:
10–14H: Drop to 3340 (UTC+4 14:00–18:00).
22–24H: Test 3320 (UTC+4 22:00–00:00 next day).
Confirmation: RSI <50 on 1H, volume spike >25% average.
Bullish Scenario (Low Probability)
Trigger: Sustained close above 3380 (Gann 0° angle).
Targets: 3385 (90° angle), 3400 (180° angle).
Timeline: 14–18 hours (if 3380 breaks).
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia — Lifting Off in the AI MarketThe “Big Three” are breaking new records: #Facebook (Meta) surged to $784.39 as AI-powered targeting tools pushed ad revenues higher, #Microsoft hit $551.10 by combining rapid Azure growth with new monetization from Copilot across its ecosystem, and # Nvidia climbed to a record $183.21, driven by unwavering demand for AI computing.
Key growth drivers:
#Facebook (Meta): Markets welcomed strong ad revenue projections, outweighing concerns about capex. AI tools for ad targeting significantly improved performance.
#Microsoft: Azure’s YoY growth reached ~39%, Copilot crossed 100M monthly users, and the company committed up to $30B in upcoming AI infrastructure.
#Nvidia: Persistent demand for AI GPUs and networking gear from hyperscalers, plus a $4T valuation milestone, keeps momentum strong.
What’s fueling continued upside:
#Facebook (Meta): AI tools like Advantage+ improve audience targeting and ad creatives, while Reels and recommendation feeds increase impressions and eCPM. Large-scale investment in data centers and in-house AI models open new monetization paths. Stable rate expectations also favor growth stocks like META.
#Microsoft: Growth is driven by Azure’s ongoing expansion (~39% YoY), the second wave of cloud migration, and strong monetization via Microsoft 365 and GitHub Copilot. A $30B capex plan will expand data center capacity. A broad portfolio — Windows, Office, Gaming — supports steady margins.
#Nvidia: The AI compute supercycle is in full swing. Demand for H-series GPUs and InfiniBand networks exceeds supply. The clear upgrade roadmap (H200/Blackwell) extends through 2026, while CUDA ecosystem expansion strengthens customer lock-in. Strong cash flow and record valuation support M&A, buybacks, and accelerated development.
According to FreshForex , current price levels make #Meta and #Microsoft attractive for long positions. #Nvidia offers room for both upside and pullbacks, depending on news flow.
XAUUSD 30M Range Trap Holding, But Will Bulls Break Above $3366Gold is currently trading within a well defined intraday range, with clear resistance around $3,366.36 and support near $3,339.78. After a strong initial move, price action has stalled, reflecting indecision and balanced order flow between buyers and sellers.
The market now approaches a key inflection point:
→ A confirmed 30 minute candle close above $3,366.36 would signal potential bullish continuation, with immediate targets at $3,368.99 and $3,371.11
→ Conversely, a close below $3,339.78 may trigger a downside move toward $3,331.66, followed by $3,328.21
Momentum remains neutral within the range, and any premature entries carry increased risk of whipsaw. Patience is essential, a clean breakout with structure and volume confirmation will offer higher probability trade setups.
This remains a rangebound environment until proven otherwise. Breakout traders should stay alert, but disciplined.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 4, 2025 USDJPYAfter Friday’s weak U.S. jobs report, USD/JPY fell sharply, breaking below 150. At the start of the new week the pair stabilized around 147–148, yet the fundamental backdrop remains tilted against the dollar: expectations for Fed cuts in the coming months are weighing on U.S. yields and narrowing the U.S.–Japan yield spread—the primary long-run driver of USD/JPY.
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The Bank of Japan continues an ultra-loose stance, with forecasts showing inflation around target but little appetite for aggressive tightening in the near term. That leaves the main channel of yen support tied to U.S. yield dynamics and global demand for safe-haven assets. With softer U.S. yields and elevated U.S. political uncertainty, demand for defensive currencies may stay resilient.
Additional risk factors include commentary from Japan’s Ministry of Finance regarding the yen and potential bouts of volatility around Fed communications and incoming U.S. data. Today’s base case favors selling USD/JPY on corrective upticks toward 146, as pressure from lower U.S. yields persists.
Trade idea: SELL 147.550, SL 148.550, TP 146.050
SOPH / USDT :Broke out from trendline resistance SOPH/USDT Breakout Watch
SOPH/USDT has just broken the trendline resistance and is showing strong bullish potential. With a successful retest, we could see a 13 - 15% rise soon!
Key Point: Keep an eye on the retest for confirmation. A solid hold will trigger a strong upward move. Be ready for the breakout!
EURUSD consider on support and resistance zone togetherEURUSD now on resistance area i expect the price will break and form head and shoulder
on the other hand, may this area is strong and the price make down trend ,but we should wait candle pattern on this area to take sell
you must wait price action to take good trade with risk to reward 1:3
good luck
USD/JPY(20250804)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
① The US non-farm payrolls rose by 73,000 jobs in July, far below the expected 110,000; the previous two months saw a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs, prompting traders to fully price in two Fed rate cuts before the end of the year.
② The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly fell to 48, below the expected 49.5 and the lowest level since October 2024.
③ The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July reached a five-month high.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
148.53
Support and Resistance Levels:
152.12
150.78
149.91
147.15
146.28
144.94
Trading Strategy:
If it breaks above 148.53, consider entering a buy position, with the first target price being 149.91. If it breaks below 147.15, consider entering a sell position, with the first target price being 146.28.
Technical Analysis Forecast for XAUUSDOpen Price: 3365 (UTC+4)
1. Candlestick Analysis
4H/1H: Current price (3365) near resistance zone (3370–3380). Recent candles show shooting stars and bearish engulfing patterns, indicating exhaustion.
30M/15M: Doji formations at 3365 suggest indecision. A close below 3360 would confirm bearish momentum.
5M: Short-term hammer candles at 3355–3360 hint at minor support, but lack follow-through.
Outlook: Bearish reversal likely if 3360 breaks.
2. Harmonic Patterns
4H/1H: Bearish Bat Pattern completing near 3365 (D-point).
PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone): 3365–3370.
Fibonacci Confluence: 88.6% retracement (AB=CD) + 161.8% BC extension.
30M: Bullish Gartley forming at 3350, but secondary to larger bearish setup.
Outlook: High-probability short entry at 3365–3370 with target 3340.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
4H: Wave 5 of an impulse cycle peaking at 3365.
Structure: Completed 5-wave sequence from 3300 → 3365.
Corrective Phase: Expect ABC pullback to 3320–3340 (Wave A target: 3340).
1H: Sub-wave (v) of 5 ending at 3365. Divergence in RSI/MACD confirms weakness.
Outlook: Bearish correction to 3320–3340 over 24 hours.
4. Wyckoff Theory
Phase: Distribution (after markup from 3300 → 3365).
Signs: High volume at 3365 (supply), upthrust above 3370 failed.
Schematic: Phase C (markdown) beginning.
1H/30M: Spring at 3355 failed to hold, indicating weak demand.
Outlook: Break below 3350 triggers markdown to 3320.
5. W.D. Gann Theory
Time Theory
24H Cycle: Key time windows:
UTC+4: 08:00–10:00 (resistance test), 14:00–16:00 (trend reversal).
Square of 9: 3365 aligns with 90° angle from 3300 (resistance).
Square of 9
3365 → Resistance Angles:
0° (3370), 90° (3385), 180° (3400).
Support: 45° (3350), 315° (3335).
Price Forecast: Next reversal at 3370 (0° angle).
Angle Theory
4H Chart: 1x1 Gann Angle (45°) from 3300 low at 3330. Price above angle = bullish, but overextended.
1H Chart: 2x1 Angle (63.75°) at 3365 acting as resistance.
Squaring of Price & Time
Price Range: 3300 → 3365 (65 points).
Time Squaring: 65 hours from 3300 low → 3370 resistance (65 points = 65 hours).
Harmony: 3365 = Time Cycle Peak (24H from open).
Ranges in Harmony
Primary Range: 3300–3400 (100 points).
50% Retracement: 3350 (support).
61.8% Retracement: 3340 (critical support).
Secondary Range: 3320–3380 (60 points).
Key Levels: 3350 (50%), 3340 (61.8%).
Price & Time Forecasting
Price Targets:
Short-Term: 3340 (61.8% of 3300–3365).
Extension: 3320 (100% of prior correction).
Time Targets:
First Reversal: 8–12 hours from open (UTC+4 16:00–20:00).
Second Reversal: 20–24 hours (UTC+4 04:00–08:00 next day).
Synthesized 24H Forecast
Bearish Scenario (High Probability)
Trigger: Break below 3360 (confirmed by 1H/30M close).
Targets:
T1: 3340 (61.8% Fib, Gann 45° angle).
T2: 3320 (Wyckoff markdown, Elliott Wave A).
Timeline:
8–12H: Drop to 3340 (UTC+4 16:00–20:00).
20–24H: Test 3320 (UTC+4 04:00–08:00 next day).
Confirmation: RSI <50 on 1H, volume spike on breakdown.
Bullish Scenario (Low Probability)
Trigger: Sustained close above 3370 (Gann 0° angle).
Targets: 3385 (90° angle), 3400 (180° angle).
Timeline: 12–16 hours (if 3370 breaks).
Entry: Short at 3365–3370 (stop-loss above 3380).
Targets: 3340 (T1), 3320 (T2).
Risk-Reward: 1:3 (15-point risk, 45-point reward).
Confirmation: 1H close below 3360 + volume >20% average.
Intraday Alerts:
5M/15M: Bearish engulfing below 3360 → accelerate short.
30M: RSI divergence below 3365 → validate weakness.
Final Outlook: Bearish correction to 3320–3340 favored. Monitor 3370 resistance for invalidation. Use 4H/1H close for direction confirmation.
GBP/CAD - H4 - Bearish Flag (26.07.2025)The GBP/CAD Pair on the H4 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.8242
2nd Support – 1.8139
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NZDJPY – Bearish Momentum BuildingPair: NZDJPY
Timeframe: 4H
Bias: Bearish
🔍 Technical Setup:
NZDJPY has broken sharply from its recent consolidation and is now testing a critical 4H support zone near 87.00. A decisive break below this zone would open the path toward lower support levels.
📍 Entry Trigger: Break and close below 86.95
🎯 Target 1: 85.95
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 87.35
📉 RSI: Near oversold, confirming strong bearish pressure
This setup reflects a classic bearish continuation with momentum and structure aligned.
🧠 Fundamental + Macro Confluence:
🔻 New Zealand (NZD):
RBNZ cut rates to 3.25% citing weak inflation, growth slowdown, and spare capacity.
Employment data remains fragile; upcoming releases add downside risk.
NZD is under pressure due to falling export demand amid global trade tensions.
CFTC positioning shows longs reducing, net positioning weakening — sentiment turning bearish.
🔺 Japan (JPY):
Bank of Japan is gradually tightening — while still accommodative, the bias is shifting hawkish.
JPY benefits as risk-off sentiment grows — fueled by weak equity markets and rising VIX (20.42).
CFTC shows a massive drop in NNCs, aligning with institutional flows favoring JPY strength.
🌐 Risk Sentiment:
VIX > 20 confirms risk-off sentiment, bolstering safe-haven demand for JPY.
NZD, being a high-beta risk currency, weakens as global risk appetite fades.
Seasonal bias also aligns with weakness in NZD and strength in JPY.
📌 Final Take:
Macro, sentiment, and technicals all align for further downside in NZDJPY. Watch for a clean H4 close below 86.95 to confirm entry. This pair offers strong confluence — from central bank divergence to institutional flows and global volatility.
GBPJPY – Bearish Continuation Setup AheadPair: GBPJPY
Timeframe: 4H
Bias: Bearish
🔍 Technical Overview:
GBPJPY has broken down with high momentum and is now hovering at a 4H support zone (195.30). A clean break and close below this level opens the door for a deeper move toward the next support areas:
Entry Trigger: Break below 195.30
🎯 Target 1: 194.05
🎯 Target 2: 192.50
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 195.95 (previous resistance-turned-supply zone)
📉 RSI: 27.63 (Oversold but momentum-driven selloff suggests more downside)
🧠 Macro + Fundamental Confluence:
🏦 Central Bank Policy:
BOE (Bank of England) cut rates by 25bps (to 4.25%) in a hawkish tone, with internal disagreement (7–2 vote), signaling uncertainty and potential for further divergence.
Despite the “hawkish cut,” the market interpreted it cautiously, especially with falling UK economic momentum and weak retail data.
💴 Bank of Japan:
BoJ is slowly tightening policy — signaling an eventual exit from ultra-loose conditions.
Real interest rates remain negative, but the direction is now incrementally hawkish, strengthening the JPY across the board.
💡 Market Sentiment:
VIX at 20.42 = Risk-Off Environment → capital flows into safe-haven JPY, out of GBP.
With Nasdaq bullish, but volatility ticking up, JPY benefits from its safe-haven role.
📊 CFTC Positioning:
GBP: Longs decreasing, shorts rising, NNCs decreasing → Bearish bias
JPY: Longs flat, but massive drop in NNCs → institutional positioning is turning defensive
🧾 Economic Weakness:
UK Services PMI showing signs of stagnation
CPI and Retail Sales remain weak, suggesting limited scope for further GBP upside
Japan's latest Household Spending and Economy Watchers Survey show stabilizing conditions, supporting yen strength
📌 Final Take:
Fundamentals support the breakdown as monetary divergence and global sentiment drive capital into the JPY. Watch for confirmation via H4 close below 195.30 before entering the trade.
🧭 Trade idea aligns with macro, technicals, seasonality, and institutional flows.
Bitcoin can continue to decline and break support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Following an earlier upward trend, bitcoin entered a prolonged phase of consolidation, forming a large upward pennant where price action was tightly contested between the seller zone near 117000 and an ascending support line. This period of balance, however, has recently resolved to the downside with a significant change in market structure. A decisive breakdown has occurred, with the price breaking below the pennant's long-standing support line, signaling that sellers have ultimately gained control. Currently, after the initial drop, the asset is undergoing a minor upward correction, which appears to be a classic retest of the broken structure from below. The primary working hypothesis is a brief scenario that anticipates this corrective rally will fail upon encountering resistance from the broken trendline. A confirmed rejection from this area would validate the bearish breakdown and likely initiate the next major impulsive leg downwards. The first objective for this move is the buyer zone around the 112000 support level, but given the significance of the pattern breakdown, a continuation of the fall is expected. Therefore, the ultimate target price for this scenario is placed at the 109,000 level, representing a logical measured move target following the resolution of the large consolidation pattern. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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#PENGU #PENGUUSDT #PENGUINS #LONG #AMD #PO3 #Analysis #Eddy#PENGU #PENGUUSDT #PENGUINS #LONG #AMD #PO3 #Setup #Analysis #Eddy
PENGUUSDT.P Scalping Long Setup
This Setup & Analysis is based on a combination of different styles, including the volume style with the ict style. (( AMD SETUP )) "PO3"
Based on your strategy and style, get the necessary confirmations for this scalping setup to enter the trade.
Don't forget risk and capital management.
The entry point are indicated on the chart along with their amounts.
The responsibility for the transaction is yours and I have no responsibility for not observing your risk and capital management.
Note: The price can go much higher than the specified target and have a very good pump.
Be successful and profitable.
Euro bounce from buyer zone and start to move upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. After a prolonged upward trend which formed a large rising wedge, the EURUSD faced a significant rejection from the seller zone near the 1.1685 resistance level. This failure to continue higher marked a key turning point, exhausting the bullish momentum and initiating a new bearish market phase. This new phase has since taken the form of a well-defined downward channel, within which the price has been undergoing a series of downward corrections and impulses. The most recent market action has been a sharp downward fall, accelerating the price's descent towards a critical area of historical significance. Currently, the pair is approaching the major support level at 1.1400, which also constitutes a strong buyer zone where demand has previously stepped in. The primary working hypothesis is a long, counter-trend scenario, which anticipates that the current bearish momentum will be absorbed by the strong demand within this buyer zone. A confirmed and strong rebound from this 1.1400 support area would signal a potential temporary bottom and the start of a significant upward correction. Therefore, the tp for this rebound is logically set at the 1.1600 level, a key psychological and technical point that represents a realistic first objective for a bounce of this nature. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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Reddit breaks out for bullish run I have been watching Reddit for a couple of weeks and identified that we had put in the .786 low from the correction since February and then formed a range that was well respected for the past 4 months .
In this video I highlight zones where i expect price to gravitate too and where a nice entry will be if you are looking to long reddit.
Tools used Fib suite , trend based fib , tr pocket , 0.786 + 0.382 and fixed range .
“Exactly What I Saw” promises value and transparency.
In today's analysis, I’ve identified a clear completion of Wave D, securing a 3% ROI across just two trades – all before the move unfolded.
🔍 What’s inside this breakdown?
• Multi-timeframe analysis: Weekly ➝ Daily ➝ 4H ➝ 1H
• Elliott Wave structure with confluence zones
• Trade psychology at key turning points
• Exact entry & exit insights explained
• Risk management for consistent returns
---
⚡ Highlights:
Precise reversal spotted before it was obvious
No indicator clutter – just clean, confident price action
Part of my 100-day breakdown series: real, raw, and repeatable setups
---
👣 Day 7 of 100 is just the beginning.
Tap Follow to stay ahead of the market – one wave at a time.
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Bitcoin will continue to decline to support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Following a period of a broad downward trend, bitcoin's price action has been channeled into a large downward wedge, a pattern that signifies converging volatility and a period of consolidation before an eventual decisive move. This market action is taking place between two critical, well-established zones: a major seller zone capping rallies around the 119500 resistance level and a significant buyer zone providing support near 116000. Recently, an upward rebound attempted to test the upper boundary of this wedge but was met with strong selling pressure from the seller zone, confirming its validity as a formidable barrier. The price is now correcting downwards after this rejection. The primary working hypothesis is a short scenario, anticipating that the bearish momentum from this recent failure will continue to drive the price lower. While a minor bounce or retest of local resistance is possible, the path of least resistance within the pattern's structure is now towards its lower boundary. Therefore, the TP is strategically set at the 116000 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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Gold can reach resistance area and then continue to fallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Over an extended period, the price action of Gold has been contained within a large descending triangle, a pattern characterized by a series of lower highs testing a descending resistance line and a relatively flat support base. The major seller zone around the 3415 resistance level has consistently capped upward rebounds, establishing a clear downward pressure on the asset. The most critical recent development has been a decisive breakdown, where the price broke below a key ascending trend line and, more importantly, below the horizontal support at 3310. This structural break has shifted the immediate market dynamics, turning the former support area of 3310 - 3320 into a new ceiling of resistance. The primary working hypothesis is a short scenario based on the principle of a breakdown and retest. It is anticipated that the price will attempt a corrective rally back towards this new resistance area around 3310. A failure to reclaim this level, confirmed by a strong rejection, would validate the breakdown and signal the continuation of the larger downward trend. Therefore, the tp for this next bearish leg is logically placed at the 3240 level. This target represents a significant area of potential support and a measured objective following the resolution of the recent consolidation. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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BTC Short Update Hello ❤️
Bitcoin
Let's have an update on Bitcoin analysis
💁♂️ First Target 🔥
Near Second Target
According to the analysis I posted on the page, Bitcoin touched the first target and is now near the second target
It is a good place to save profits. The price gap is filled
Please don't forget to like, share, and boost so that I can analyze it for you with more enthusiasm. Thank you. 💖😍
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 1, 2025 GBPUSDThe pound remains under pressure due to the strengthening of the dollar and expectations of further easing of the Bank of England's policy at its meeting on August 7. The regulator's rhetoric in June-July pointed to a “gradual and cautious” course of rate cuts amid weak growth, and the market is pricing in the likelihood of another move at the next meeting. The situation is complicated by the fact that July inflation in Britain unexpectedly accelerated, but the regulator interprets it as a temporary consequence of tariff and price shocks, not wanting to tighten financial conditions excessively.
The external environment is also unfavorable for the GBP: the US has imposed new tariffs on a number of trading partners, strengthening demand for the dollar as a risk-free asset. For the UK, the trade implications are mixed: part of the supply chain is focused on the dollar zone, and industry is sensitive to global demand, which, in the context of prolonged uncertainty, is hitting investment and employment expectations. The risks of a decline in private sector business activity remain elevated.
Today, attention is focused on US employment data: if the labor market confirms its stability, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September will decrease further, which will keep the dollar in the ascendancy. All these factors combined create a bearish bias for GBPUSD in the short term, with any brief rebounds from local oversold conditions typically being used for selling.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.32000, SL 1.32500, TP 1.31000