BTCUSD 1D Heikin, RSI and MACD - 1 Month trend review.This chart uses Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with CM TrendBars (21D), EMAs (9,15,21,55), RSI (13D, 80/20 ranges) and a MACD indicator.
Most trend traders are familiar with Heikin Ashi candlesticks. HA means ‘average’ in Japanese because these candlesticks ‘average out’ prices vs traditional candlesticks that are based on OHLC. This has two benefits: it reduces noise and produces a smoother looking candlestick pattern. Which helps trend traders identify key trends and ignore smaller time frame and/or less significant price action. Obviously day traders would not find HA very useful.
Over the last month we have seen price action trade within a 1k USD range and the first ‘bullish’ month after several months. For the 1st half of December it was all bearish as we hit ALTs for 2018, except for a weak bullish spinning top on the 9th (that correlated with a significant bullish MACD crossover). A price reversal started on the 16th and ran through to the 24th, a Christmas present of sorts, before the market inevitably dipped during Xmas and New Years. The new year has shown bullish price action on the 2nd and 3rd of January (with my CM TrendBars colour code indicating all green) but they are still posting lower highs than the previous two price oscillations.
Volume over the month has been 'green' on only 10 days but that has the most bullish we have seen for month's in the downtrend. We saw significant bullish price action even though a majority of the days were bearish. This could indicate that few want to sell at this price and a small bump in ‘new’ volume had a amplified impact on price. It is also worth noting that there is a massive amount of wash trading occurring which is distorting data and we could be looking at a fake pump (lots of theories including a BCH/Bitmain pump). It also worth noting that after only a 4 day bump in volume, it has tapered off for 8 days now and is at the lowest levels since the 13th of November (the day before we had the last massive price dump). Remember that weak volume goes hand in hand with weak trending (price consolidation and sideways action). For how long before another breakout is the question? IMHO Volume this low tends to indicate that it can’t be long and it the breakout could be bearish.
The RSI depicts the historical and current strength of price action of a security. After identifying a trend, we can then apply the RSI to help identify what stage in the oscillation cycle and therefore possible future velocity/magnitude moves. Note that the longer the time frame, the more reliable the RSI signal is. An alternative to the RSI, is the Stochastic RSI, which is kind of like the RSI on steroids and it is much more sensitive and therefore more likely to deliver false signals. For a trend trader, this is not ideal. The RSI axis is from 0 - 100, with the below 20 (oversold) and above 80 (overbought) been the real action points IMHO. When the RSI is hovering around 50, this is a neutral zone.
The RSI over the last month has provided some valuable hints of future price action. We saw a bullish failure swing play out as it crossed the 30 RSI, then bounced three times above 30, before rising to 55. The 3rd test of the 30 RSI on the 16th of December was really a clear sign that we were going to see some bullish price action. From the 20th the RSI has hovered +/- 5 around the 50 point RSI indicating no clear direction in the market momentum or velocity. The small bull run has effectively lost momentum already (it is worth noting during the Xmas and NY period, many stop trading). I think that the next few days will be critical, if we see the RSI down trending to say 30-40 while price remains sideways (divergence), this could indicate future bearish price action.
The MACD (Moving Averages Convergence Divergence) indicator is a popular trend momentum indicator that can show us a security's overall trend. The core assumption of this indicator is that a security’s price oscillates around an equilibrium. Therefore by looking at the relationship between different MA calculations, we can identify what specific stage a security maybe of it oscillation cycle. This is why we have two lines, the first is called the MACD (26 - 12 day MA) and the second is called a Signal line (9 day MA). We also have a Histogram (MACD-Signal Line), which is the 1st thing I look at. Finally there is the Zero line, which is basically when the 26 and the 12 day are equal. The MACD, that combines several indicators, is worth watching when one or more of the following happens: crossovers (MACD/Signal/Histogram and Zero line), convergences/divergences between price and rapid changes. Learn more about this at Investopedia.
The first thing I look at is the Histogram as it is visually clear and it most often precedes MACD/Signal crossovers. The histogram flipped from a clearly bearish position on the 26th of November, crossing the Zero line on the 2nd of December. It remained around the Zero line until the 16th of December, interestingly enough while BTC price declined a further 20%. The reason why the Histogram did not turn more bearish during that 20% drop is because it combines averages from the 26 up to now, and the bearish price action had been high during the early part of that period, therefore it averaged out. Then it became clearly bullish on the 16th of December until the 24th, before reversing its trend now to just above the Zero Line. The MACD bullish crossed the Signal line on the 2nd and then again the 9th of December, when we saw a significant bullish spinning top, and has continued it’s bullish trend towards the Zero line ever since. This could just reflect a bullish short term bounce, or price retracement, or it could signal a longer term gradual price reversal. The longer the MACD remains around the Zero line, along with the Singal line, the more bearish I become.
Overall I am neutral to bearish. The charts indicate a weak bullish reversal, but it is not backed up by volume. The RSI has pulled out of oversold territory but has firmly remained within the neutral zone, the MACD is approaching the zero line but it sat on that for weeks before the price collapsed on the 14th of November. The longer it takes for me to see significant volume and then price action, with corresponding RSI and MACD, the more bearish I will become.
