Get started

Beyond Technical Analysis

NAS100 (15-Minute Timeframe)🔍 Key Levels to Watch: Bullish Setup 👇: After a dip in price, we've seen potential accumulation at the 15-minute FVG (Fair Value Gap), setting up for a possible bounce. 🟢 Bearish Resistance ⬆️: Price is currently interacting with a 1-hour Bearish FVG, with potential for further downside if resistance holds. ⛔️ 🔵 Potential Trade Plan: Look for a Pullback: Price could retrace to the higher time-frame resistance zones around 24,791.45 (HTFL) or 24,786.45. Key Entry Points: Focus on price action near the 15-minute FVG, which may give us a clearer bullish confirmation. 🟢 Target Zones: Aiming for 24,791.45 and higher based on overall momentum. 🔥 Stay alert and trade wisely! Always use proper risk management. Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:NAS100FTLong
by MrYounity
Gold hits 3,717 low – Short-term technical reboundMarket Overview: Last night, gold dropped to a low of 3.717 USD/oz under strong selling pressure from the US market. Currently, it rebounds slightly to 3.736 USD/oz, indicating emerging bottom-buying interest. Technical Analysis: • Support: 3,717 / 3.723 USD • Resistance: 3.740 / 3.750 USD • EMA: EMA50 trending down; EMA200 above price, medium-term downtrend persists • Candlestick pattern: Hammer candle observed at 3,717 low, signaling possible technical rebound Outlook: Gold may rebound short-term toward 3.740–3.750 USD if buying pressure holds, but monitor price reaction at 3,717–3.723 USD to confirm reversal or continuation. Trading Strategy: 🔺 BUY XAU/USD : 3.718 – 3.715 🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips 🛑 SL: 3.712 🔻 SELL XAU/USD : 3.750 – 3.753 🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips 🛑 SL: 3.756
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mian-FXSignals
GBPUSD PROBABLE SELLCurrently, Cable is trading into a premium array within the H1 range after a clear displacement lower. Price has retraced into an area of interest — aligning with an H1 fair value gap and a bearish order block. The draw on liquidity sits below recent equal lows, with sell-side liquidity resting beneath the 1.2630–1.2600 level. As long as price remains below the 1.2720–1.2740 zone, the higher-timeframe narrative favors a sell-side delivery. Optimal trade entry may present on the 5M–15M after a market structure shift inside the premium zone. Sell-side targets: liquidity below 1.2630 → 1.2600. Invalidation: sustained closes above 1.2750.
Short
by ALICADIUS
Can Single-Use Robotics Topple Surgical Giants?Microbot Medical Inc. (NASDAQ: MBOT) has experienced a dramatic stock surge from $0.85 to $4.67, driven by the convergence of multiple strategic milestones that signal a potential disruption in the surgical robotics market. The company's flagship LIBERTY® Endovascular Robotic System received FDA 510(k) clearance in September 2025, marking the first single-use, remotely operated robotic solution for peripheral endovascular procedures. This breakthrough represents more than regulatory approval; it validates a fundamentally different business model that challenges the capital-intensive approach dominating the industry. The LIBERTY® System's disruptive potential lies in its unique value proposition: a disposable robotic platform that eliminates the multi-million-dollar upfront costs that have limited robotic adoption to less than 1% of endovascular procedures. The system demonstrated a 92% reduction in physician radiation exposure and achieved a 100% success rate in clinical trials with zero device-related adverse events. By offering universal compatibility with existing instruments and requiring no dedicated operating room infrastructure, Microbot is positioning itself to capture a massive underserved market segment—smaller hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, and clinics that have been previously excluded from robotic innovation due to cost barriers. Strategic elements supporting this momentum include a robust intellectual property portfolio with 12 granted patents and 57 pending applications, particularly a modularity patent that could expand the addressable market from 2.5 million to over 6 million procedures annually. The company secured up to $92.2 million in financing through a sophisticated multi-tranche structure, providing critical operational runway for its Q4 2025 U.S. commercial launch. Despite maintaining R&D operations in Israel during ongoing geopolitical tensions, Microbot has demonstrated operational resilience by keeping all development activities on schedule. The company's "procedure-based" strategy, reinforced by acquisitions such as Nitiloop Ltd.'s FDA-cleared microcatheters, positions it to create comprehensive solution kits rather than competing solely on robotic hardware. While analysts maintain a consensus price target of $12.24 compared to the current $3.42 trading price, the ultimate test will be market adoption rates and commercial execution in a space where established players like Intuitive Surgical have built formidable ecosystems around high-cost capital equipment models.
NASDAQ:MBOTLong
by UDIS_View
The Bitcoin Long Trigger No One MentionsYo traders, Skeptic from Skeptic Lab! 🚀 Bitcoin’s in a wild phase—any move could drag us for weeks! In this video, I break down the buy squeeze candle that started it all, dive candle-by-candle into the market, and hunt for long/short triggers. We’ll also check Bitcoin dominance and altcoin vibes. From a V pattern to pivot 4 action, I’ve got you covered. no FOMO! Drop your coin picks in the comments, boost if it helped, and follow for more.
Long
by SkepticLab
Predicting Bitcoin's DirectionI was completely wrong in my last analysis, foolishly predicting a sharp decline. Now, as Bitcoin climbs back to its highs, I'm noticing a decrease in trading volume. Specifically, as the price nears its peak, the volume continues to drop, and there's a surge in volume on red candles. Based on this, I'm anticipating a bearish market until next March. During the last round of interest rate cuts (2018-2020), Bitcoin began its rebound right after the rate cuts ended. I believe we'll likely see a similar pattern this time around.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Gaunter-O-Dimm
5
Trend Following: How to Ride Waves Without Getting Washed OutMarkets move in waves. Easy, right? But if you’ve tried catching one only to find out you get washed out, you’ve realized it ain’t’ that easy. Sometimes there are gentle ripples that lull traders into boredom, other times they’re tsunamis that wipe out everything in sight. The trick isn’t predicting when the next big set will hit – it’s learning how to catch it without falling off your board from the get-go. That’s where trend following comes in. Simple, structured, and surprisingly effective, it’s a strategy that says: stop guessing, start riding. 🌊 Catching It, Not Fighting It At its core, trend following is about spotting momentum and sticking with it. If prices are climbing, you’re a buyer. If they’re falling, you’re a seller. No need to argue with the market about “fair value.” The trend follower’s mantra is: Mr. Market is always right, I’m just here to hitch a ride. Why does this work? Because markets are essentially a bunch of thinking participants who move in herds. They share the same fears, hopes, expectations, and goals. Traders, funds, and algorithms pile into the same ideas, technical patterns, and price levels, pushing valuations higher or lower. Your job isn’t to outsmart the herd – it’s to ride with it until the stampede loses steam. Or better yet, spot the opportunity before the herd. "I am the animal at the head of the pack. I either get eaten, or I get the good grass,” says David Tepper, hedge fund manager. 🤫 Why It’s Harder Than It Sounds “Buy high, sell higher” feels wrong anywhere but in the market. Human brains are usually wired to hunt for bargains, not chase expensive things. But there’s something about a record high that pulls you in and makes you say “Take my money!” Traders love to bet on success. So when they see that Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is at $117,000 , near a record, it’s easier to throw cash than when it’s crashing and burning at a 60% discount. True, no trend stays intact after a huge drop. But sometimes it’s better to see confirmation that the trend is exhausted than to exit during a mild dip and risk missing out on the big move. Trend following isn’t about catching every top or bottom. It’s about accepting that you’ll never time it perfectly, but if you stay disciplined and let the trend play out, you’ll capture at least some of the move. But in trading everything’s possible – some prefer to catch tops and bottoms, and that’s completely fine as long as it works. “For twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms,” says Paul Tudor Jones, another big name in the industry. 📈 Tools of the Trade So how do you know a trend is worth following? Traders lean on a few classics: • Moving averages : If the 50-day is above the 200-day, that’s your green light. Prices above both? Bullish trend intact. Prices dive below the 200-day? Cue that a bear market is here. • Support and resistance : Connect the dots (literally) and see if the price is respecting an upward or downward slope. • Breakouts : When the price pops above resistance or drops below support on big volume, that’s the market saying, “Watch this.” • Reversals : For those that like to live on the edge, spotting reversals might be a good way to catch a move from start to finish. The trick isn’t in the tool itself, but in sticking to the plan when the inevitable wiggles and pullbacks happen. 🚤 Don’t Mistake Chop for Trend Not every chart with bars pointing up is a trend. Sometimes you’re just looking at chop – those sideways, back-and-forth price moves that exist to chew up stop-losses and ruin Fridays. Trend followers learn to wait for confirmation. That could mean a clean breakout with volume, or a moving average crossover with conviction. Enter too early, and you may find yourself drowning in false signals. A confirmation is oftentimes triggered by economic news and reports. So pay attention to big and small releases stacked in the Economic Calendar . 🛟 The Stop-Loss Lifeboat Here’s a little secret of trend following: you’ll be wrong a lot. The method is built around small losses and (occasional) big wins. That’s why stop-losses are essential . You’re not trying to win every trade, you’re trying to catch the few monster trends that more than pay for the slip-ups. Think of it like surfing: you’ll get wiped out plenty of times, but you only need one clean wave to make the day worthwhile. 📊 The Math Behind the Swings Why does this work over time? Because of asymmetric returns. If you risk $1 to make $3, you only need to be right 30% of the time to profit. Trend followers build systems where the losers are cut quickly, but the winners are allowed to run. That’s where the proper risk-reward ratio comes in. Most traders do the opposite. They cut winners too early (“I’ll take my quick profit!”) and let losers drag on (“It’ll bounce, right?”). 🧩 Famous Trend Followers This isn’t just theory. The Turtle Traders in the 1980s—an experiment by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt—proved that complete novices could learn a rules-based trend following system and make millions. Fast forward, and big CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) still run billions using similar strategies today. They all share one principle: don’t predict, only follow. ⏳ Patience Pays The hardest part isn’t identifying trends. It’s sticking with them. Every pullback will tempt you to bail. Every analyst estimate, every scary headline, even your cousin at Thanksgiving telling you “Ether’s going to zero” will test your patience. But trends don’t end because you got nervous. They end when the move breaks. Patience is what separates the trend followers who catch the big wave from the ones stuck paddling. 🎯 Final Take: Ride It Out Trend following may not make you look like Paul Tudor Jones calling tops and bottoms. But it will keep you aligned with where the money is flowing. And when you’re on the right side of a trend, the ride is smoother, the wins are bigger, and the stress is lower. Off to you : When’s the last time you got a nice wave and surfed it out to completion? Share your experience in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
10
S&P 500 & BITCOIN, UPTOBER OR FLOPTOBER?A large part of the crypto community believes that Bitcoin’s cycle top (the cycle that started in November 2022 and linked to the 2024 halving) was reached on Thursday, August 14, at $124,200. They highlight the presence of major technical resistance as well as the fact that we are already more than 500 days past the halving. From a cyclical timing perspective, I rather estimate that the end of the cycle will occur around mid-October to mid-November of 2025. I invite you to reread my cyclical time analysis by clicking on the chart below. Can Bitcoin, after the tough end of this September, resume its upward trend despite the presence of an extreme technical resistance on the S&P 500 index? The S&P 500 index is in a medium-term major resistance zone, but there is no bearish divergence In equities, the S&P 500 and its futures contract are trading in the upper part of a long-term bullish channel. After rebounding in April at the lower bound of this channel, it is now the 6,750/6,800-point zone that acts as major resistance. In technical analysis, the formation of a significant market top usually requires the combination of a key resistance level and a bearish price/momentum divergence. At present, this divergence is not present, which limits the strength of the signal. Nevertheless, the proximity of this technical level could encourage some investors to take profits, paving the way for a consolidation—especially since the S&P 500 is currently very expensive in terms of valuations. September, a tricky month but often the harbinger of “Uptober” for Bitcoin On the crypto side, September has always been a complicated period for Bitcoin: increased volatility, market traps, and often weak performance. Yet this phase often acts as a springboard ahead of the stronger bullish dynamics of the fourth quarter. In 2025, the pattern repeats. September follows Bitcoin’s usual seasonality, marked by lows that often serve as buying zones before the statistically favorable rallies of October (“Uptober”) and November. The current cycle, which began in autumn 2022, still suggests the possibility of one last bullish leg between mid-October and early December, before potentially entering a bear market that could last throughout 2026. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Swissquote
EURUSD Review September 25 2025Short-term price movement ideas. After a week of liquidity removal, the price confirmed a short FVG on the daily chart, and from this area we already received confirmations on the 4H. At the moment, the price is trading within a 4H zone of interest. If this zone gives us a structure break on the 1H, then short positions can be considered with the target of taking out equal lows. Be flexible, adapt to the market, and the results will come quickly. Good luck to everyone.
by SFASignals
How to place your SL & TP levels according to your R:RAll the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!! www.tradingview.com
Short
by Simply-Forex
Understanding The OPEC’s Influence on Oil Prices1. Introduction Oil is one of the most important commodities in the modern world. It powers transportation, fuels industries, and plays a central role in energy generation. Because of this, changes in oil prices can have far-reaching effects on global economies, governments, and households. At the center of the global oil market is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), an intergovernmental organization formed to coordinate and unify petroleum policies among member nations. This explanation explores the historical context, mechanisms, economic impact, challenges, and future outlook of OPEC’s influence on oil prices. 2. Historical Context and Formation of OPEC OPEC was established in 1960 by five founding countries: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. These countries faced a market dominated by multinational oil companies known as the “Seven Sisters,” which controlled production levels and pricing, often to the detriment of oil-producing nations. Before OPEC, oil prices were largely dictated by these corporations, and producer nations had minimal influence over their own resources. This led to disparities between the value of the oil sold and the economic benefit received by producing countries. The creation of OPEC was a strategic move to gain collective control, stabilize oil markets, and secure fairer revenues. Over time, OPEC expanded its membership, including countries from Africa, the Middle East, and South America. This expansion allowed it to consolidate influence over the global oil supply, making it a key player in international energy markets. 3. How OPEC Influences Oil Prices OPEC primarily influences prices through production quotas. By agreeing on how much oil each member country can produce, OPEC can manage global oil supply and, indirectly, pricing. Reduction in production: When OPEC cuts production, global oil supply decreases. If demand remains stable or increases, prices rise. Increase in production: Conversely, raising production can lead to an oversupply in the market, causing prices to fall. OPEC also influences prices through market signaling. Announcements about production targets, policy changes, or upcoming meetings often lead to immediate reactions in oil futures markets, even before actual production changes occur. 4. OPEC+ and Global Cooperation In recent years, OPEC has expanded its influence through alliances with non-member countries, forming the OPEC+ group. This includes major producers like Russia. By coordinating production strategies with these countries, OPEC+ strengthens its ability to stabilize markets during periods of volatility. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, global demand for oil dropped sharply. OPEC+ responded with large-scale production cuts, which helped prevent a further collapse in prices and supported oil-dependent economies. 5. OPEC’s Role in the Global Economy Oil is not just another commodity—it is a strategic economic resource. Changes in oil prices have widespread economic consequences: Inflation: High oil prices increase transportation and manufacturing costs, driving up prices of goods and services. Trade balances: Oil-importing countries face higher import bills, affecting their balance of payments, while oil-exporting countries gain higher revenues. Fiscal stability: Governments of oil-exporting countries rely heavily on oil revenues to fund budgets, infrastructure, and social programs. OPEC’s decisions, therefore, have direct consequences for millions of people and can even shape economic policies in countries far beyond the Middle East and Africa. 6. Geopolitical Implications Oil is also a geopolitical tool. OPEC’s decisions can reflect political motives as well as economic ones: During conflicts or sanctions, OPEC can adjust production to support allies or respond to global pressures. The 1973 oil embargo demonstrated the power of oil as a political weapon, causing prices to quadruple and triggering economic crises in Western countries. OPEC’s influence is not just economic; it is also a form of soft power, capable of shaping global politics. 7. Challenges and Criticisms of OPEC Despite its influence, OPEC faces several challenges: Internal disagreements: Members have different economic priorities and domestic pressures, which sometimes lead to conflicts over production quotas. Non-compliance: Some countries may produce more than their agreed quota to meet domestic needs, reducing the effectiveness of collective decisions. Energy transition: The rise of renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy efficiency measures reduces global dependence on oil, potentially limiting OPEC’s long-term influence. Critics also argue that OPEC’s coordinated production decisions can resemble monopolistic behavior, artificially inflating prices to the disadvantage of consumers. 8. Market Perception and Speculation OPEC’s influence extends beyond physical supply adjustments. Market perception plays a crucial role: Traders and investors react not just to actual production changes, but to expectations of future actions. Media statements, public speeches, and even rumors about OPEC decisions can cause significant price fluctuations. Derivative markets, including futures, options, and swaps, reflect OPEC-related risks, amplifying the impact of both real and perceived actions. This creates a complex interplay between fundamentals (actual supply and demand) and speculation, making OPEC’s influence both direct and indirect. 9. Case Studies of OPEC’s Impact 1. 1973 Oil Embargo: Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo against countries supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Oil prices quadrupled, leading to severe economic disruptions in Western economies, highlighting the organization’s geopolitical and economic power. 2. 1980s Oil Market Adjustments: OPEC attempted to maintain high prices, but market distortions and non-compliance among members forced production cuts to stabilize prices. This period demonstrated the challenges of maintaining cohesion. 3. COVID-19 Pandemic Response: OPEC+ coordinated unprecedented production cuts to stabilize global oil markets when demand collapsed due to lockdowns. This helped prevent further price collapse and supported oil-dependent economies. 10. Future Outlook OPEC’s influence is likely to continue, but the context is changing: Global energy transition: As renewable energy and electric vehicles grow, oil demand may plateau or decline. Technological innovation: Advances in energy efficiency and alternative fuels could reduce dependence on OPEC oil. Geopolitical shifts: OPEC will need to navigate changing alliances and conflicts in global energy politics. The organization’s ability to adapt to these trends, maintain cohesion among members, and manage expectations will determine its relevance in the coming decades. 11. Conclusion OPEC remains a central player in global oil markets, capable of influencing prices through production quotas, market signaling, and strategic alliances. Its decisions affect economies worldwide, from inflation rates to national budgets and geopolitical strategies. Understanding OPEC’s influence requires analyzing both actual production decisions and market perceptions, as well as considering historical context and future energy trends. While challenges exist, OPEC’s coordinated approach ensures that it remains a key driver of global oil prices and a significant actor in international economics and politics.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
GBPJPY - Momentum Pendulum ModelGBPJPY is trading just above 200.00, retesting the major resistance zone at 200.24. Price has held well above the ascending trendline but is struggling to break higher. 🔼 Bullish case: A clean break and hold above 200.24 could open the door to 201.00+. 🔽 Bearish case: Failure to break may see a pullback toward 199.31, and further down to 198.57 – 197.79. 📌 This zone (200.00–200.24) is pivotal and will dictate the next directional move. ⚠️ For educational purposes only, not financial advice. (MPM)
Short
by akanniolubusuyi
EURUSD - MOMENTUM PENDULUM MODEL (MPM)EURUSD continues to trade within the ascending channel but is now testing the lower boundary around 1.1745. Volume profile shows strong interest near 1.1778, which is also a key resistance. 🟨 Support: 1.1745 (channel base) – break below could shift momentum bearish toward 1.1700. 🔼 Resistance: 1.1778 – reclaiming this level may attract buyers back into the channel mid-zone. 📌 Price action here will decide if the pair respects the channel or begins a breakdown. ⚠️ For educational purposes only, not financial advice. (MPM)
Long
by akanniolubusuyi
NEIROETHUSDT.P Analysis (15M)NEIROETHUSDT.P is showing a potential reversal setup on the 15-minute timeframe. After a recent downtrend, price has found support near the +FVG zone around 0.0500, with a bounce indicating buyer interest. The price is currently testing the -iFVG zone at 0.01650, which acted as resistance earlier. A breakout above this level could target the -OB zone at 0.02000, offering a favorable risk-reward setup. Watch for increased volume on the breakout to confirm bullish momentum. If price fails to hold above 0.01850, expect a retest of the +PVG support. Trade cautiously and manage risk!
by Miraqcapital
2
Gold Record Highs Under the Lens of ATAI VPA & VPRCGold Analysis Report In recent days, as gold has reached new historical highs, two analytical tools have been used to assess the market conditions: - ATAI Volume analysis with price action V 1.03 - ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer (VPA) It is important to emphasize that the gold market is heavily influenced by global economic and political events, and precise volume data is not publicly available. The only volume data considered here comes from OANDA. For this evaluation, a 70-day period has been chosen to study the broader behavioral and volume pattern of gold over the past two months. Bull Trap Risk Detection (ATAI Volume analysis with price action V 1.03) In this indicator, Bull Trap detection is based on the interaction of price behavior and order-flow volume. The logic is as follows: 1. Bull Sweep (False Breakout with Long Wick) - If price exceeds the recent high (`high_level`) but closes back below it, and the upper wick of the candle makes up a sufficiently large fraction of the total range, then a Bull Sweep is detected. - Formula: upper_wick_ratio = (high - max(open, close)) / (high - low) Condition: upper_wick_ratio >= trap_wick_threshold (e.g., 0.6) 2. Bull Break - If the close is above the breakout level without a long wick, it is treated as a Bull Break. 3. Mismatch Condition - If the candle is bullish (close > open) but delta ≤ 0 or seller ratio > 50%, then there is a mismatch between price action and order flow. - Formula (simplified): mismatchBull = (close > open) and (delta <= 0 or seller_ratio > 0.5) 4. Dominance Inversion - If buyer volume ranks highest in the lookback window, but cumulative seller volume is greater than buyer volume while the candle is bullish, a dominance inversion occurs. - Condition: domInvBull = (rank_buy == 1) and (sum_sell > sum_buy) and (close > open) 5. Low Volume Breakout - If a bullish breakout occurs with total volume less than the average total volume, then the breakout is flagged as low-volume. - Condition: lowVolBull = isBullBreak and (TF_tot < avg_tot) The module assigns scores to these conditions: - Sweep: +2 - Break: +1 - Mismatch: +2 - Dominance Inversion: +2 - Low-volume Break: +1 If total score ≥ trap_score_risk (default = 3), then a Bull Trap Risk is flagged. If, within `trap_confirm_bars`, price reverses and closes back below the breakout level, then Bull Trap Risk Confirmed is displayed. Complementary View (ATAI Volume Pressure Analyzer – VPA) The VPA indicator, with its left (C→B) and right (B→A) wings and offset capability, allows a parallel evaluation of flow balance. In the current gold chart, the right wing (B→A) reflects weakness on the buyers' side, reinforcing the Bull Trap risk detected by the previous indicator. This alignment strengthens the probability of a bearish scenario. However, the extent of any downward path will depend on the pivotal price levels where the largest buy and sell volumes were registered over the past 70 days. These are represented by points B1 and S1, clustered around the 3409 USD level. Notes - On lower timeframes, accuracy in buy/sell volume calculation depends on the data window. Here, a 1-minute timeframe was selected, which provides ~74 days of buy/sell flow data. - Gold remains highly sensitive to political and economic news globally. - This analysis is based solely on mathematical calculations and volume/behavioral pattern recognition. It must not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ata_sabanci