The end of the bull run for Bitcoin - This time is different 80kHello Guys and welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin!
We all know about the current bull run for Bitcoin but the question is. When will it end?
Well if you ask me it will happen very soon and I will explain it to you very detailed.
Remember Bitcoin has always done the same in the past.
The history is repeating .
Price Prediction
Searching on the Internet about the Bitcoin potential Price Prediction you will find a lot of theories about that. The Super Cycle, the Stock to Flow Model and many mores. They all claim that this market will go crazy to the upside. Now there is nothing wrong about these theories. I also agree with them when it comes to the final Target for Bitcoin. I also see it going up very easy till 1Mio . I do not doubt this. The usecase of Bitcoin is insane and everybody who puts a little effort in doing some researches about it, will understand this.
Investing
Now to the more important part. How will the Price develop in the near future so I can take advantage of it and make some money. Is it good that I am currently in Bitcoin? Should I hold it?
Well when it comes to Bitcoin as an Investment you should definitely hold it. Long Term holder will benefit the most of this movement. But if you are not in this market yet what should you do now?
Well right now if you will buy Bitcoin and you will hold it long term there is absolute no problem. If you look back at the chart no matter at what time you have bought bitcoin you are in profit or around break even. Key is to hold. This is the reason #1 why people are losing money in bitcoin. They do not hold it long term. This is also the reason why the market will give us extreme drawdrowns in Price, so most of the investors will get emotionally and leave the market.
Should I buy Now?
But if you ask me if you should buy Bitcoin right now then I would say definitely NO! I expect some serious drawdowns on Bitcoin in the next couple months. I can not provide you a specific date but I can provide you specific numbers. I expect in the range between 78-82k a big drop of -86%
Everybody will just ask me if I am crazy. No I am not. From my point of view that would be the most logical scenario right now, why?
Cycles
If we have a look at the Bitcoin Cycle we will see that the history has repeated exactly the same. I will refer to the bull run from 2012-2013
We can see that the market went up around 12000% . If you compare it to the bull run 2015-2017 you will notice the exact same number.
Also both correction were almost the same: 83%
That is crazy. Now we have even more similarities for that. We can spot a triangle Pattern and a Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern.
Now if that was the same that means the current move to the upside is that bull cycle that brought Bitcoin end 2013 till 1000$
If I am applying right now the same Fibonacci and the same Percentage Growth then I come to the target between 78-82k. Of course this target can varify a little bit as we have seen the % are not 100% the same.
Therefore we can expect right now the market to go up till that area and to drop afterwards -86% and to come to the target between 11-15k . That drop would also test the inverted Head and Shoulder Structure exactly like in 2015 the market did.
Additional Confirmation
We can also spot at the same area a Trend Line Resistance which can also be an additional confirmation.
If the price will drop during 3-4 day about -40% then we have our final confirmation that the market will go for that -86% drop
Institution:
Now people would say this time is different. We have big institution who bought Bitcoin. It is not possible that the price will drop that much. Well that is true that there are big institution like Tesla who bought Bitcoins. Well they did around 30k because it was only around that specific date time possible to do this for them. But remember. Those are long term holders. No matter what they will do they will end up as winners. If the market will reach that level they can realize their profit. Which would be about 3x. That is very good money for such an institutions. And if they will not do this they would hold it during the whole drawdown and probably buying some more.
Now the thing is that there is still the higher power who could always bring the price down. Whenever the Supply will be given the market will drop hard. Very hard. That is just normal economic cycle.
Final Thoughts:
From my point of view this market is very exponential already. After such an exponential growth the market needs at some point to give us a big drop. Imagine the Bitcoin Price at 80k. So many financial institutions, hedgefonds would be in big profit. That will mean for them positive year. They will all close from my point of view. No matter how much higher Bitcoin potentially could go. They will rejoin the market for sure. But probably at a lower price.
Also remember to the end of 2017. Nobody thought about Bitcoin would drop -82% Nobody! Only 1% have been exiting at the top because they know exactly how the economic cycle works and they have been master in technical analysis. They have been just counting 1 with 1 and I am doing it right now the same. I strongly believe that we have right now the same setup like in the end of 2013. To many aspects are showing me the same. Also right now the media is telling us to buy bitcoin. At that high price? No thank you. Following the media has been always a wrong decision. I am looking to attack and to rejoin at the lower price. From my point of view it is better to realize the profits before this big boom. When it comes to this markets it is always better to be a little bit more pessimistic to not lose that % gain. Me personally of course I am going to hold some of my Bitcoin in my portfolio longterm but definitely I am going to realize some of the profits before this big BOOM.
Thank you that you have been reading this post till the end. It really means a lot to me.
Let me know what you think about this idea in the comment. This post is just my personal opinion based on my knowledge for the market and the researches I did.
