TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #196👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s go over Bitcoin's analysis. The price is moving down again, so let’s review Bitcoin's movement together.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
Yesterday, we had a trigger at the $115,698 zone, but the price couldn't sustain above this level, and Bitcoin's downward movement has started again.
✔️ A double top pattern has formed in this timeframe, and the trigger for this pattern activation was $113,991, which has now been activated. With the large volume, the price has managed to stabilize even below the $111,278 zone.
💥 The RSI oscillator has once again entered Oversell, and the price has reached near our support zone.
⚡️ If this support zone is broken, we can open a short position. Otherwise, I won’t be opening any short positions with other triggers.
📈 For a long position, we need a very strong reaction and significant bullish momentum at the support zone. In this case, the main trigger for a long would be $115,698, but we can also use earlier triggers if they form.
📊 For now, I will wait to see how the price reacts to the zone and then look for the trigger. The only trigger I have at the moment is $115,698.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
BTCUSD – Resistance Now, but Bitcoin Will PrevailBTCUSD – Resistance Now, but Bitcoin Will Prevail 🚀
After the October 11th Flash Crash, Bitcoin recovered but today just lost its key support at 111,961 — which now acts as resistance. Earlier today, I went long on that level, but once price failed to hold, I closed immediately. That’s how we survive in this market — we play the levels. 📉
Current structure shows next supports at 109,517 and 108,700, with a deeper risk toward 102,000 if pressure persists.
For now, 111,961 remains the wall to watch. Any reclaim above it could flip the tone back to bullish. 🔁
Despite this short-term turbulence, I remain bullish on Bitcoin.
I’ve been divorced from altcoins for months — because Bitcoin represents the values we must return to if crypto is to survive this phase. These are what I call the Catharsis Cycles — cleansing moments before renewal. 🌅 stick around....
We’ve seen these before. The chart levels still work. Bitcoin will prevail.
Trading Wisdom 📜
When the chart tells you “get out,” listen. Levels are not suggestions — they are survival maps.
Discipline keeps you profitable longer than hope ever will.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclaimer: These charts and analyses reflect my personal opinion only. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing here is financial advice, but i am pehaps the best in Prognosis and i believe strongly on what I say after i have examined everything. Trading involves risk, and you are fully responsible for your own decisions. Trade wisely and so will I.
BITCOIN – WAIT FOR ARBITRAGE TO BALANCE SPOT MARKETSTraders,
What a week it’s been. A lot of people got rekt, and I hope you were on the right side of the move. If not, it’s fine: this is how markets reset. I’ve been getting a lot of questions about what comes next, so here’s my current view.
The Situation
Binance/USDT wicked down to 102,000
Binance/USD wicked to 107,485.59
Coinbase/USD wicked to 107,000
That’s roughly a $5,000 difference, or about 5%, which is huge for major spot markets.
Under normal conditions, spreads between top venues like Coinbase and Binance are usually below 1% (Bitwise, 2019 SEC Study on Real Bitcoin Trading Volume - for the nerds interested ;)).
Why It Matters
Both Binance and Coinbase printed round-number lows (102k and 107k).
Round-number lows are considered “bad lows” because they attract clustered stop-loss orders and create obvious liquidity pools underneath.
Studies on market microstructure (e.g., Osler 2003; Kamps & Klein 2018) confirm that price clustering at round numbers is a real behavioral bias in FX and crypto markets.
Real market bottoms are messy, chaotic, and rarely form at clean, even levels.
These “perfect” lows often get revisited or swept later as the market clears liquidity and finds true balance.
How the Flush Works in Spot Markets
Even though spot markets don’t have leverage liquidations, they still experience stop cascades and panic selling.
When price breaks below a clean low, it triggers stops, sending a surge of sell orders into thin liquidity.
Market makers step in to absorb those orders and rebuild liquidity from a more stable base.
This is what traders call a spot flush — the market removing weak hands and resetting liquidity.
Conceptually, it’s the same as a liquidation flush in futures, just without forced margin calls.
What Arbitrage Does
Arbitrage keeps prices between exchanges in check.
When Bitcoin trades cheaper on Binance than on Coinbase, arbitrage traders buy on Binance and sell on Coinbase.
This pushes the cheap venue’s price up and the expensive one down until they align.
Makarov & Schoar (2020, NBER) showed that cross-exchange price deviations in Bitcoin are temporary and mean-reverting, driven by arbitrage capital restoring equilibrium.
Kaiko research (2021–2023) also found that USD and USDT pairs often decouple during stress events, especially when stablecoin liquidity or banking rails get disrupted, and later realign once volatility settles.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing now: a temporary dislocation that arbitrage will eventually close.
What I Expect
Binance already swept liquidity down to 102k.
Coinbase still has a clean 107k low that hasn’t been tested.
To rebalance both exchanges, I expect Coinbase to trade within 1% of the Binance 102k low, meaning roughly 103k–104k.
That would bring both markets back into alignment and complete a proper spot flush.
This isn’t a guaranteed move, but it’s a logical rebalancing target supported by historical arbitrage behavior.
What Could Happen Before That
We could still see Bitcoin move back toward 118k–120k before a potential drop.
After major liquidation events, markets often retrace sharply as liquidity rebuilds and shorts get squeezed.
A move higher doesn’t invalidate the idea of a later sweep; it could just be part of the natural reset phase before the market finds true equilibrium.
What I’m Watching
The spread between Coinbase/USD and Binance/USDT narrowing from around 5% to about 1%.
Coinbase breaking below 107k and testing the 104–102k zone.
A liquidity sweep followed by a strong reclaim and visible buy volume.
If we move up first, I’ll watch price behavior around 118k–120k for signs of exhaustion.
My Plan (Not Financial Advice)
I’m staying patient and letting the market mechanics reset.
If Coinbase trades into the 103k–102k zone, that’s my “let’s see what’s going on now” trigger.
That doesn’t mean I’ll instantly go long — it means I’ll start watching the data:
Volume and delta (are buyers stepping in?)
Strength of reclaim (is the recovery fast and decisive?)
Order book depth (is liquidity returning?)
What is Open Interest doing?
Do we see absorption? Or maybe a continuation pattern even?
Only if those metrics confirm strength will I consider entering.If not, I’ll stay flat and wait for the next confirmation.
So, TLDR;
Both Binance and Coinbase printed clean, round-number lows that are likely to be swept again. Arbitrage will eventually bring the spot markets back into balance, which should pull Coinbase closer to Binance’s 102k low. We might even see a push toward 120k first as liquidity resets. Either way, patience is key: let arbitrage, liquidity, and order flow do their job before taking any position.
And remember: Patience in trading isn’t about doing nothing, it’s about waiting for the odds to align in your favor. Chasing every move might feed the ego, but patience compounds the account. The market always rewards the trader who can sit still when everyone else is reacting.
Trade safe!
Corrective waves continue.Bitcoin's bullish sentiment still far outweighs its bearish sentiment. In my opinion, this is a balancing act. I think the market will stabilize in the coming months.
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
* What i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Will It Recover More?
Bitcoin nicely respected a major daily support cluster,
bouncing from that.
A breakout of a resistance line of a symmetrical triangle pattern
on an hourly time frame suggests the strengths of the buyers.
I think that the market will continue recovering soon and reach 118000.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Bitcoin Update: Bearish Divergence on RSI Only Deepens This is a brief update to the analysis shared in August. The RSI has now formed a fourth consecutive lower peak on the weekly chart, further confirming the bearish divergence.
Monitor the RSI closely — a break below 50 (currently at 53) could signal the onset of a bear market.
The first key support level is near 102K, and a decisive move below this level would strengthen the bearish outlook.
BTC Trade Idea: Will Support Hold or Is a Reversal Coming? Bitcoin has broken structure to the upside and is showing early bullish signs 🟢. I’m watching closely for a long opportunity if price holds above the current support level and we see a confirmed break of structure from the current low.
However ⚠️ — if this level fails to hold and price breaks below the previous low, we could shift bias and look for a short opportunity 🔻.
📊 Not financial advice — for educational purposes only.
BITCOIN... THE DROP IS NOT OVER YET!I see a lot of people fomo-ing to buy the dip, but I don't think this is the bottom yet. At least, that is not what my technical analysis is showing me.
I am expecting Bitcoin to likely go down to the 100k level again, maybe even less to 95k. The question is, will it go back up from there? I think there is a good possibility to make new all-time highs. BUT, if it does not show support or bounce hard, and higher timeframe candles start to close lower, this could mean quite bad things for crypto..
Let's wait and see..
Trade safe!
- R2F
Chart Analysis: Bitcoin Holds Critical Support at $107,450Bitcoin has dropped by almost 10% after Trump announced that he would impose 100% tariffs on China. The largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history to date, totaling $19 billion, has also occurred.
On the weekly timeframe, there is a chance for a breakout below the 8-day moving average (EMA8) even though the price movement of Bitcoin has rejected the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As a result, traders and long-term investors will be able to predict whether the price will reject the typical support area at $107,450 and continue its upward trajectory, or whether it will breakout below it and start a bear market.
Ethereum (ETH): A Break Above $4,200 Seems Within ReachHello everyone,
Ethereum continues to show strong momentum, maintaining a steady rise from around $4,050 to nearly $4,183. The ongoing bullish structure signals that buyers remain firmly in control in the short term. On the chart, the Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $4,040–$4,070 is acting as a key support, while the $4,150–$4,170 zone stands as the major resistance that ETH must clear to open the path toward higher levels.
On the news front, investor sentiment toward Ethereum remains positive. Ongoing progress in Ethereum 2.0 and the broader DeFi ecosystem continues to reinforce long-term confidence in the platform. The consistent growth in staking inflows suggests that investors prefer holding ETH rather than taking profits early. However, macroeconomic headwinds — including the Fed’s tight monetary stance and the strong US dollar — could trigger short-term pullbacks if market sentiment weakens.
Technically, a decisive breakout above $4,150 could pave the way for a run toward $4,200, or even $4,300 in the near term. Conversely, failure at this resistance may push ETH back to retest the $4,040–$4,070 support zone before regaining upward momentum. Losing that level would likely activate a deeper correction toward $3,900.
What do you think — how long can ETH sustain this bullish energy?
Trader vs Gambler: Why Trading Isn’t GamblingThe Trader vs The Gambler: Why Trading Isn’t Gambling
“Trading is gambling.”
You’ve probably heard it before — from friends, family, or strangers who’ve seen a few flashy headlines, red charts, and crypto hype videos and decided: “It’s all luck.”
To most outsiders, the markets look like chaos — numbers flashing, candles flying, influencers shouting “BUY!” and “SELL!” as emotions run high.
It’s understandable that they think it’s all random chance.
But here’s the truth:
Trading can look like gambling when it’s done like gambling.
When done properly — with education, discipline, and structured risk — trading is a profession built on probability, process, and data.
What Trading Actually Is
Trading is the art and science of buying and selling assets — currencies, commodities, crypto, or stocks — to profit from price movements.
But unlike gambling, trading involves skill, timing, and measurable probabilities.
Professional traders don’t rely on hope — they rely on edges.
An edge is a repeatable setup or condition that statistically produces profits over time.
A real trader studies and uses:
- Price Action & Market Structure: Recognizing higher highs, liquidity zones, supply and demand, and where big players enter or exit.
- Technical Analysis : Tools like moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, volume profiles, VWAP, trendlines, and fair value gaps.
- Fundamental Analysis: Macro data, interest rates, inflation, earnings, tokenomics, project development, and regulatory events.
- Sentiment & Flow: Gauging crowd emotion, open interest, whale activity, and on-chain data.
- Risk Management: Strict position sizing, stop-loss placement, and capital preservation.
- Statistics & Journaling: Tracking setups, win rates, risk-to-reward, and performance over hundreds of trades.
- Discipline & Emotional Control: The ability to not trade when conditions aren’t right.
A trader doesn’t ask, “Will it go up?”
They ask, “If it goes up, what’s my risk? What’s my probability? What’s my plan if I’m wrong?”
That’s not gambling — that’s probability management.
What Gambling Actually Is
Gambling is risking money on an uncertain outcome without any control, edge, or process.
You rely purely on luck — a spin of a wheel, a flip of a card, a random move in a market you don’t understand.
The outcome is fixed against you. In a casino, the house always wins.
A gambler thinks emotionally:
“I have a feeling it’ll go up.”
“My mate said this coin’s going to explode.”
“I’ll double my bet to win it back.”
No analysis. No backtesting. No data. No control.
Just hope — the same force that keeps casinos rich and players broke.
When someone dumps $10,000 into a random altcoin because they saw a tweet or meme, that’s not trading — that’s emotional speculation.
They’re not following a plan; they’re following a crowd.
The Trader’s Mindset vs The Gambler’s Mindset
TRADER:
- Decision Basis: > Data probabilities, confluences
- Goal: > Consistent Long-term growth
- Risk Control: > Defined, Limited, Pre-set
- Emotional State: > Patient, Detached, Focused
- Reaction to loss: > Reviews plan, learns, adjusts
- Education: Studies psychology, risk, analysis
- Funding approach: > Scales up, uses funded accounts
GAMBLER:
- Decision basis:> Emotion, impulse, hype
- Goal: > Quick jackpot
- Risk control: > Undefined, often all-in
- Emotional state: > Fearful, greedy, erratic
- Reaction to loss : > Doubles down or quits
- Education: > Follows noise & influencers
- Funding approach: > Risks personal savings recklessly
A gambler sees “one trade” as the make-or-break moment.
A trader sees “one trade” as part of a thousand trades that define their edge.
Example: The Math of a Trader vs a Gambler
Trader:
Win rate: 55%
Risk-to-reward: 1:2
Risking 1% per trade
After 100 trades, they’re up roughly +55R - 45R = +10R (10% growth).
Their plan, consistency, and edge made it possible.
Gambler:
Win rate: Random, maybe 45%.
Risk-to-reward: 1:1 or worse.
Risking 10–20% per “bet.”
After a handful of losses, they’re wiped out.
There’s no math, no longevity — just emotional chaos.
This is why traders survive, gamblers vanish.
Why Trading Is Not Gambling
1. Trading Has Positive Expected Value (EV)
Gamblers play games with negative EV — odds mathematically stacked against them.
Traders create systems with positive EV by identifying patterns that statistically outperform random chance.
Example:
If your setup wins 55% of the time and earns twice what it risks, your long-term outcome will always be positive.
That’s not luck — that’s math.
2. Trading Has Risk Management
In gambling, you can lose everything on one hand.
In trading, you risk a small percentage per trade.
Professionals risk 0.5–2% of their account per setup.
That’s why they can lose 10 trades in a row and still be in the game.
Gamblers can’t — they blow up because they never manage risk.
3. Trading Uses Control and Data
You can’t “analyze” a roulette spin. You can’t manage risk at a blackjack table.
But in trading, you can backtest, strategize, and control your exposure.
Markets may be uncertain, but traders control their actions within that uncertainty.
Gambling has no such control — it’s fixed odds, rigged in favor of the house.
4. Trading Rewards Skill and Experience
The more you study, journal, and refine your process, the better you get.
No amount of practice makes you better at roulette — the wheel doesn’t care.
But trading rewards time, reflection, and discipline.
Skill matters. Patience matters. Data matters.
5. Trading Has Funding Opportunities
No casino will give you $50,000 to “gamble responsibly.”
But trading firms will give you a $50K, $100K, or $200K funded account — if you prove consistency and discipline.
Funded trading isn’t luck; it’s a business.
You’re rewarded not for profits alone, but for following rules:
- Max daily drawdown
- Overall drawdown limits
- Minimum trading days
- Profit targets
That’s structure — something gambling never has.
Why Use a Funded Account Instead of Your Own $50K?
Because professional trading is not about flexing capital — it’s about proving control.
Funded accounts are training grounds for serious traders:
- You trade with someone else’s capital.
- You’re held accountable to strict limits.
- You’re paid for consistency, not luck.
That’s professionalism.
Gambling is the opposite — no structure, no accountability, and no risk control.
A gambler risks $50K of their own money and hopes for a jackpot.
A trader risks 0.5% of a $50K funded account with a defined plan.
One burns out in a week.
The other builds a track record and earns a living.
The Reality Check: When Trading Does Become Gambling
Trading becomes gambling when:
- You trade without a plan.
- You follow hype or influencers blindly.
- You over-leverage.
- You revenge-trade.
- You skip journaling and analysis.
- You ignore stop losses.
The activity isn’t gambling — the mindset is.
A professional can take the same tool a gambler uses — the same chart, same exchange, same coin — and produce consistent returns, because their intent, process, and control are different.
Real-World Example
Two people open Bitcoin trades at $60,000.
- Trader A: Risks 1%, sets stop at $59,000, target $62,000. Reviews structure, confluences, and volume.
- Trader B: Risks 100% of his savings because “it’ll go up for sure.”
Same entry, same price.
One plays a game of probability, the other a game of hope.
One grows, one disappears.
The chart doesn’t decide who wins — their mindset does.
The Trader’s Mindset
A real trader thinks like a scientist:
- Hypothesis: If price rejects support and volume confirms, it may move up .
- Experiment: Enters small, stops defined.
- Result: Win or loss logged.
- Iteration: Reviews data, improves setup.
Gamblers don’t have hypotheses — they have feelings.
The trader’s mindset is structured:
- Plan before execution.
- Accept losses as data.
- Control risk religiously.
- Focus on consistency over excitement.
Detach emotionally from outcomes.
That’s why traders survive long-term while gamblers chase short-term highs.
“But Crypto Is Just Gambling!”
Crypto can look like gambling — because most people in it treat it like one.
They buy hype, ignore fundamentals, and chase every new shiny coin.
That’s not trading.
Real crypto traders:
- Study tokenomics, development teams, and market sentiment.
- Use technical levels and liquidity maps.
- Manage position sizes and hedge exposure.
- Treat it like a business, not a casino.
The asset class doesn’t make it gambling — your approach does.
Final Thoughts
Yes — both trading and gambling involve risk.
But risk ≠ gambling.
Risk, when managed correctly, equals opportunity .
The difference is control, process, and purpose.
A trader plays the long game with discipline and math.
A gambler plays for emotion and chance.
Anyone can click Buy.
But not everyone can manage risk, follow process, and think in probabilities.
So next time someone says:
“Trading is gambling.”
Show them this:
🎲 Gambling is random.
📊 Trading is calculated.
One depends on luck .
The other depends on discipline .
Thank you all so very much for reading this article, I enjoyed creating it and I hope it becomes of use too you.
If you have any requests on strategies, articles or would like charting done, drop a comment below.
The Year of the ETF $XRPSpot CRYPTOCAP:XRP ETFs with SEC review dates in October 2025
Grayscale: October 18
21Shares: October 19
Bitwise: October 22
Canary Capital: October 23
CoinShares: October 23
WisdomTree: October 24
GOV Shutdown may have caused delays.
By middle of November we should start seeing massive gains in $XRP.
Wont even mention my target as you can see it on the chart.
I've personally waited a long time for this, I wont sell until we reach where I think we are headed.
I expect cycle to top out by the end of November, beginning of December max.
Bitcoin Eyes $116.6K Breakout Confirmation📊 Market Update — Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)
BTC has successfully confirmed the low time frame zone, holding steady above both the support and volume range, which signals continued short-term strength.
Currently, price action is consolidating within the upper boundary of the range — a sign of buyer absorption before potential expansion.
🔹 Key Level to Watch: $116.6K
This level acts as an important confirmation point — a 1-hour (or higher) close above this zone could validate a breakout continuation, opening the path toward the $120K–$125K range.
If BTC sustains this structure, the bullish momentum remains intact, with low time frame structure aligning with higher trend support.
📈 Bias: Bullish Continuation
🎯 Next Targets: $116.6K → $120K → $125K
$BTC final high = $126k?After the bearish move on Friday that scared everyone out of positions, I think BTC could be setup for a run at new highs.
To me, it looks like price wants to reclaim support levels and make a run at $126k for a final high in this bullish move.
If that level hits, it's a good time to exit longs in the crypto space as I think the rest of the year will be bearish and we'll see new lows.
Let's see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
BITCOIN — STRUCTURE SHIFT INSIDE BEARISH RANGEBitcoin has filled the 116.3 to 114.9 imbalance and is now trading inside a defined bearish range.
Lower-timeframe structure has shifted downward with significant volume left behind, which suggests this is not a place to buy into strength.
Price has completed the imbalance fill, and the next question is whether this area becomes a market-maker trap or a true continuation leg.
If smart money continues to build short positions, distribution could follow.
If liquidity dries up and buyers absorb, the trap scenario takes shape. Patience remains the correct position.
Focus on the 15-minute to 1-hour range for confirmation. A break of structure, a clean rejection, or a failed retest around 116.3 will define the next directional move.
Until that occurs, any trade inside this zone is a low-probability action.
On the macro side, the U.S. Dollar Index continues higher, signaling risk aversion and tighter global liquidity.
Bitcoin does not move in perfect correlation, but capital still follows the path of safety when the dollar strengthens.
In the current environment, the edge lies in observation and precision, not anticipation.
Let structure confirm before committing. Probabilities always favor the patient.
Deleveraging done, waiting for a 116k confirmation__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC recovered a chunk of Friday’s wipeout and is ranging back below 116k, with leverage reset and volatility still elevated.
Momentum: 📈 Technical rebound but still a range under 116k; upside needs a clean reclaim above 116k.
Key levels:
- Resistances (STF/MTF): 115.8–116.2k (pivot) • 119.9–120.5k • 124–126k (HTF).
- Supports (STF/HTF): 114.0–114.3k • 110.8–111.5k (pivot cluster) • 108.8–109.0k.
Volumes: Very high on 4H/6H during capitulation, only moderate on 1D so far.
Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H filter is Up, while 6H→1H sit in NEUTRE VENTE until 116k is reclaimed; 15m ticks NEUTRE ACHAT only for execution.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Overall NEUTRE VENTE — it contradicts the HTF bullish filter and argues for patience under 116k.
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Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
Primary stance: higher-timeframe bullish, but capped under 116k — stay progressive and let price confirm.
Global bias: Cautious bullish above 111k with validation >116k; swing invalidation on a daily close <111k.
Opportunities:
- Buy breakout: Go long on 4H/2H close >116.2k targeting 117.8k then 119.9–120.5k.
- Breakout add-on: Add if 118–120k flips to support (pullback holds) toward 122k.
- Tactical sell: Short clean rejections at 115.8–116.2k or loss of 114k, targeting 112.5k/111.1k.
Risk zones / invalidations:
- A confirmed break <111k reopens 108.8k then 105.6k (bullish invalidation).
- Repeated 116–118k rejections with the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator at NEUTRE VENTE favor range fades.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- US–China: 100% tariff rhetoric followed by a softer tone → headline volatility.
- Gold at ATH and Middle-East détente → risk appetite and hedging coexist.
- Fed/BoE: easing bias in the backdrop, but Fed tone remains mixed.
Action plan:
- Long (116.2k breakout): Entry 116.0–116.3k / Stop 114.8k / TP1 117.8k, TP2 119.9–120.5k, TP3 122k • R/R ~2R→3R.
- Short (116k rejection or <114k): Entry 115.6–116.0k or <114.0k / Stop 116.6k / TP1 114.0k, TP2 112.5k, TP3 111.1k • R/R ~1.8R→3R.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
HTFs stay constructive if 111k holds, while mid/low TFs chop below 116k awaiting confirmation.
1D/12H (filter Up): Bullish structure intact above 110.8–111.5k; sustained acceptance >115.8–116.2k opens 118–120k.
6H/4H/2H/1H (NEUTRE VENTE): Range 113.5–116k; 4H/6H “Very High” volume on the flush suggests a base, but no 116.2k close = still defensive.
30m/15m (execution): Compression below 116k; 15m flips NEUTRE ACHAT on trigger. Clean 30m/15m >116.2k + rising volume creates MTF confluence.
Significance: Bullish confluence = defended 111k + 116.2k breakout + expanding volume; divergence = Risk On / Risk Off Indicator stuck NEUTRE VENTE under 116k.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro & On-Chain Drivers
__________________________________________________________________________________
Leverage has been cleansed and macro détente is tentative, supporting the bounce while risk appetite remains selective.
Macro events:
- US–China: 100% tariff headlines then softer messaging; de-escalation possible but reversible.
- Geopolitics: hostage releases/ceasefire signals lower tail risk; gold at a new ATH underscores persistent hedging demand.
- Central banks: BoE leaning to cuts; Fed’s tone mixed despite an easing bias.
Bitcoin analysis:
- Historic leverage flush on Friday, rebound to ~115k from ~111.4k → cleaner positioning.
- Must reclaim 116k then 118–120k before the prior breakdown area below ~122k.
- Flows/treasuries: USDT injections (e.g., 100M to Kraken) and MARA +400 BTC add liquidity, not strictly directional.
On-chain data:
- Massive OI wipe and record liquidations; sentiment back to “Fear”.
- Strong on-chain support 117–120k; above it, confluence improves materially.
Expected impact:
- “Cautious détente” + deleveraging = conditional bullish bias; technically, confirmation is >116k then >118–120k.
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Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
The market stabilized after a record flush, but 116k remains the gatekeeper.
- Trend: HTF bullish, STF neutral until 116k is reclaimed.
- Best setup: Confirmed breakout >116.2k with volume toward 117.8k then 120k.
- Key macro: US–China détente and gold at ATH — supportive yet hedged risk tone.
Stay nimble: act on signals, protect below 114k, and watch 111k as swing invalidation.
Post Flash-Crash BTC Despite such a large sell-off event, has the outlook on BTC actually changed? Structurally BTC remains very much rangebound with two clearly definable halves of the range. That is until Fridays move off the back of a Tariff Tweet from President Trump causing a liquidation event similar to that of April earlier this year and the Covid crash of 2020.
Bitcoin was less effected when compared to altcoins as is usually the case, some majors dropping as much as 80% in a single 1h candle! An entire bear market in an afternoon. Bitcoin on most exchanges fell roughly 20% on the news and eventually found support at range lows ($100,000), a significant amount of this drop got bought up and so BTC finds itself hovering around range midpoint.
To me this is a no trade zone initially, there is no clear directional bias that is actionable at this time but I am looking for clues as to where price may be going next:
- Should BTC stay above midpoint the next clear resistance level is 0.75 ($117,605). On the lower time frames the trend is bearish, 0.75 would be a good place for the bears to defend.
- A loss of the midpoint would open the door to backfilling the wick, this could get ugly as on the higher time frames a new lower low and price acceptance lower would signal a bearish shift in structure. Calls for "the top is in" will get much louder and so will the 4 year cycle theory comparisons.
- A V-shaped recovery and move straight to the highs would be max pain after such a brutal move down. Although IMO it's the least likely I would not rule it out.
Bitcoin: Bull Trend Intact, Wedge Breakout Setting UpWe’re pivoting back to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) this week after its recent breakout to fresh all-time highs. It’s a strong reminder that the broader trend remains bullish, and the bulls are still very much in control.
🔍 On the daily chart, we’re watching a new wedge formation develop. BTC is currently consolidating just beneath a major resistance zone. A break and daily close above the $124K–$125K range would likely confirm the next leg of this bull cycle.
📈 If the breakout holds, the measured move from the wedge projects a rally into the $138K–$140K zone. That’s our near-term upside target, contingent on momentum and confirmation.
📉 On the downside, support holds firm between $112K–$114K. As long as price remains above this level, the path of least resistance is still higher.
BIGGEST Crypto Liquidation TO DATE - Market CorrectsToday and yesterday over the past few hours, $19 billion dollars was wiped out in crypto. This is historic. And also a lesson in risk management, an eerie reminder of how risky speculation can be.
The market was over leveraged , and this is the result.
How can we monitor/ safeguard against this going ahead and be prepared for such an event in the future?
1) Always use a stop loss
2) Watch Bid/Ask spread and volatility
3) Use proper risk management
On the 10th of October, POTUS Donald Trump Tweeted about a new set of trade measures that include 100% tariff on certain Chinese exports, and new stricter export controls. The market immediately reacted; stocks and commodities dropped and crypto fell into chaos. What made this worse is that several exchanges were down, resulting in investors being unable to close or update their positions.
It seems like a fitting "reason" and also not, oddly. What we need to note here, is that the market was over leveraged. This is a self-correcting event that presents truer market reflections and better prices for investors - a blessing for those who were not affected/invested.
As an extra measure if you trade S&P500, you could watch the VIX - and set an indicator to any daily change greater than 15%-20%. This way, you'll be notified if there's action in the stock market.
You can also take a look at this idea on Risk vs Reward:
BTCUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Bitcoin is currently consolidating around a strong support zone, where buyers have previously stepped in to push prices higher. The recent price action shows signs of accumulation and slowing bearish momentum, indicating that the market could be preparing for a potential bullish reversal.
If the price continues to hold above this support and forms a bullish candle pattern (like a higher low or engulfing candle), it could confirm buyers regaining control.
Volume activity also suggests that selling pressure is fading, while buyers are gradually absorbing liquidity from lower levels.
As long as Bitcoin remains above this key support area, the structure stays bullish, and the next impulse move to the upside could be expected once momentum confirms.
BITCOIN SIGNAL: ROUND 2 OF CRASH INCOMING!!!? (watch out) Yello Paradisers! Enjoy the video!
And Paradisers! Keep in mind to trade only with a proper professional trading strategy. Wait for confirmations. Play with tactics. This is the only way you can be long-term profitable.
Remember, don’t trade without confirmations. Wait for them before creating a trade. Be disciplined, patient, and emotionally controlled. Only trade the highest probability setups with the greatest risk to reward ratio. This will ensure that you become a long-term profitable professional trader.
Don't be a gambler. Don't try to get rich quick. Make sure that your trading is professionally based on proper strategies and trade tactics.






















