BTCUSDT Intraday Short — Contextual ExpectationWithin the framework of last week’s established initial balance, the broader daily dynamics remain constructive.
However, on a local scale, signs of upside exhaustion are starting to appear.
The current context is defined by:
-a local market buyer block
-presence of minor liquidation activity
-temporary weakness in acceptance above current levels
As long as these factors remain unchanged, the near-term bias stays short-oriented.
Zone of interest for short setup:
69,800 – 70,400
Targets:
-67,300 — first target
-66,300 — second target
Idea invalidation:
Acceptance and consolidation above 72,300.
All decisions should be made according to your own trading system and risk management rules.
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
GBP/USD | Where to next? (READ THE CAPTION)After reaching all bullish targets last night (based on previous analysis, yesterday), GBPUSD opened today a little bit lower and then dropped in price gradually, almost touching the Jan 26th NWOG high, but then it went back up a little bit and now it's being traded at 1.3669. I expect GBPUSD to touch the Jan 26th NWOG soon, and if it manages to react and stay above there, I believe it'll go to today's NDOG.
Targets: 1.3674, 1.3681, 1.3688 and 1.3695.
If it fails to hold above: 1.3662. 1.3655 and 1.3648.
EUR/USD | Breaking through the breaker! (READ THE CAPTION)Well good morning folks, Amirali here.
starting the day with an analysis on EURUSD. As expected and mentioned yesterday, it reached the Bearish Breaker and has been struggling with it since last night, consolidating in a range inside the bearish breaker. I'd like to see EURUSD go above today's NDOG and stay above the Bearish Breaker's Mean Threshold and then go up higher to 1.19600 level.
For now, the targets: 1.1915, 1.1922, 1.1929, 1.1936, 1.1943 and 1.1950.
If it stays below the NDOG: 1.1900, 1.1893 and 1.1886.
MSTR - How to profit from a $140 short target🔱 The MS ponzi is taking its toll. 🔱
I’m not laughing, because it’s genuinely unfortunate for everyone who believed in this scam.
But today, I don’t want to rant about that.
I want to show how one could profit from a potential drop of more than $100.
As an Andrews Pitchfork trader, I know there’s roughly an 80% chance that price will reach the centerline. From there, price either reverses in the opposite direction or breaks through the centerline to continue its journey.
That’s exactly what happened with MSTR.
You can see how the price first reached the centerline, held there a few times, and then broke it. Since then, it’s been following the rulebook by moving further to the downside.
Now, there’s another rule worth remembering:
price often tests or retests the line it just broke.
In our case, that line is the centerline.
This means we could be lucky enough to get a pullback to the centerline, and that would be a good level to consider shorting.
The target is usually the opposite line of the centerline, which in our case is the L-MLH (Lower Median Line Parallel).
👉 If you want to learn the full framework and its rules, check the links for free material.
I hope this helps many of you, and I wish you all good profits.
SOLT/SBIT Trading Pair - 15 minuteThis is the SOLT/SBIT trading pair 15 minute chart. Trade 2x Solana long or 2x Bitcoin short ETF's in your brokerage account. We are trading SOLT because it generally outperforms Bitcoin on the upside. As there is no -2x Solana short ETF, we use SBIT for the downside. BEWARE! As these are leveraged ETF's you can get wrecked in a heart beat. Manage position size and use stop losses to limit risk! Not Financial Advice.
We are now trading at the bottom of a horizontal channel just off All Time Lows for the pair. Stochastic RSI is low, RSI is oversold, and the BlackCat indicator is nearing the end of a down trend. The horizontal channel coincides with a Bull Flag pattern on the Solana 1 hour chart. A buy of SOLT at $2.60 with a tight stop loss at $2.52 risks -2.90% with Solana target of $110 is about 44.5% upside potential for SOLT target of $3.74
See my 1 hour Solana chart for more technical analysis of the Solana trade.
WARNING! HIGH RISK, HIGH REWARD POTENTIAL.
ZEC 1W Update: Zoomed out Zcash is at a critical inflection point on the weekly timeframe after losing the 300 level, which had acted as a major pivot and structural support during the recent expansion. The rejection from the blow-off top was sharp, and the failure to hold above 300 signals a clear cooling of momentum, shifting ZEC from trend continuation into a corrective phase. That said, price is now pulling back into the mid-200s, an area that previously acted as a launch zone during the impulsive move higher, so this region may still attract dip buyers. The structure, however, is no longer cleanly bullish unless ZEC can reclaim 300+ on a weekly closing basis. Continued acceptance below that level increases the risk of a deeper retrace and longer consolidation, while a stabilization here followed by a reclaim would suggest the move was a harsh but healthy reset rather than a full trend failure. Overall, losing 300 is technically tough, but the market is now in evaluation mode rather than outright breakdown, with the next few weekly closes likely to define whether this was distribution or a volatile bull-market correction.
Fundamental Note: BTCUSD (Bitcoin) 09 Feb 2026Bitcoin is hovering around the $70K–$72K area after a violent washout and rebound, but risk appetite remains fragile and headline-driven.
The down-move was dominated by forced deleveraging, and futures markets saw the largest long-liquidation spike of this drawdown.
On-chain structure has deteriorated: BTC broke below the True Market Mean, which it now frames near ~$80.2K as overhead resistance, while Realized Price sits around ~$55.8K as the deeper “re-engagement” zone.
Cost-basis maps show early dip-buying in the $70K–$80K band, with a dense $66.9K–$70.6K cluster emerging as a high-conviction area that may absorb near-term sell pressure.
Stress is still high: it shows the 7D SMA of realized losses above ~$1.26B/day (with recent extremes above ~$2.4B), while spot volumes remain structurally weak—typical of a “demand vacuum” regime.
Derivatives internals remain defensive: funding and futures OI have cooled and options positioning is still paying for downside (short-dated IV near ~70%, steep skew, and a negative 1-week volatility risk premium around -5).
Macro catalysts are immediate: the delayed US January jobs report is scheduled for Wed, Feb 11, and January CPI for Fri, Feb 13—either can swing USD/yields and decide whether BTC can reclaim $73K/$80K or retest the lower demand bands.
🟢 Bullish factors:
1. Dense on-chain demand cluster at $66.9K–$70.6K may act as a “shock absorber” if selling returns.
2. Leverage is being flushed (OI/funding cooling), which can reduce reflexive liquidation pressure on rebounds.
3. If jobs/CPI come in softer, USD and real-yields can ease, supporting a relief rally in risk assets.
🔴 Bearish factors:
1. “Demand vacuum” conditions: structurally weak spot volumes and ongoing distribution tone.
2. Loss realization remains elevated (realized losses > ~$1.26B/day on 7D SMA), suggesting forced exits are still happening.
3. Options still price heavy downside risk (high short-dated IV, steep skew).
4. Major overhead resistance sits above: ~$73K “contested” area and the True Market Mean near ~$80.2K.
🎯 Expected targets: Near-term range/bearish bias while below 73,000–75,000. Support is 70,000–69,000, then 66,900–70,600; a breakdown opens 60,000 and potentially 56,000–55,000 (Realized Price zone). If BTC reclaims 73,000 and then breaks above 80,000–80,500, upside can extend toward 85,000–88,000 next.
BicoinWe are likely to remain in a sideways trend within these ranges for some time, experiencing consolidation and ranging. After that, a decline to the $49,000 level, followed by the possibility of a brief touch to $40,000.
Following Bitcoin’s lead, altcoins will also experience a decline, though somewhat less severe. Once we hit those targets, even small rallies in Bitcoin could trigger significant surges in certain altcoins. This analysis is my personal opinion, based on cycle patterns. I hope this plays out quickly—or doesn’t happen at all—since I hold a lot of altcoins and want them to pump soon.
Bitcoin Faces Key Test as Macro Pressures Influence Price ActionRecent Market Forces Shaping Bitcoin’s Direction
Bitcoin sentiment has shifted noticeably since late 2025 as optimism about greater institutional adoption met a more challenging macroeconomic environment. The most important headline for Bitcoin has been the change in expectations around global liquidity. Since November 2025, markets have repriced the path of rate cuts as US inflation data re-accelerated and labor markets remained resilient. This pushed bond yields higher and strengthened the US dollar, creating a headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Another specific driver has been ETF related flows. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed materially through November and December after a strong first half of the year. Several weeks of flat to negative net flows reduced the marginal bid that had supported higher prices earlier in 2025. At the same time, miners increased hedging activity into year end, adding incremental supply during a period of weaker demand.
Across the broader crypto complex, performance has been mixed to weak. Large cap altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin, while smaller tokens saw sharper drawdowns as liquidity thinned. This has reinforced a defensive tone within crypto, with capital rotating back toward Bitcoin dominance rather than expanding risk. Overall sentiment can best be described as cautious and reactive rather than outright bearish, with participants focused on where longer term value may re-emerge.
What the market has done
• Since the end of October 2025, buyers lost control of 110000, which aligned with the 2025 developing VPOC. Sellers were then able to take control and offer prices back down toward the 87700 to 83100 area, which corresponds with the 2024 VAH and a key yearly level.
• From November 2025 through January 2026, the market balanced between 98600 and 83100 as buyers and sellers fought for control. This period reflected uncertainty around macro policy direction, slower ETF inflows, and reduced risk appetite across global markets.
• In the past week, buyers failed to defend the 83100 area. Price auctioned aggressively through the 2024 value area and reached the 60200 area, which marks the 2024 VAL. Buyers have responded at this level, suggesting responsive demand at longer term value.
• The broader decline since November 2025 has occurred alongside tighter financial conditions, a firmer US dollar, and fading expectations for near term monetary easing, all of which historically pressure Bitcoin valuations.
What to expect in the coming weeks
Key levels to watch are 82000, which aligns with a yearly level and offer block 2 low, and 60200, which represents the 2024 VAL.
Neutral scenario
• Expect the market to consolidate and auction two way between 82000 and 60200 as value is rebuilt.
• This scenario would likely align with stable macro data, no major policy surprises from central banks, and muted ETF flows that neither add nor remove significant demand.
Bullish scenario
• If buyers are able to step up bids within the current range, it may be an early signal that the bullish scenario is developing.
• A break and acceptance above 82000 would open the door for a move back through offer block 2 toward the 100000 area, which aligns with the 2025 LVN, where sellers are expected to respond.
• A bullish outcome would likely require renewed ETF inflows, easing financial conditions, or a clear shift toward more accommodative monetary policy.
Bearish scenario
• If sellers begin to step down offers within the range and compress price toward the 60000 area, it would hint that the bearish scenario is in play.
• A break and acceptance below 60000 would suggest continuation lower toward the 40000 area, which aligns with the 2023 VAL, where buyers are expected to respond.
• This path would likely coincide with further tightening in financial conditions, stronger dollar trends, or renewed risk off behavior across global markets.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently trading at a critical inflection point where longer term value is being tested against a challenging macro backdrop. Technically, the response at the 2024 VAL near 60200 is constructive, but acceptance back above 82000 is needed to shift the balance in favor of buyers. Fundamentally, the next sustained move will depend on liquidity conditions, ETF flows, and how global markets price the path of monetary policy. Until clarity emerges, Bitcoin is likely to remain in an environment where patience and level awareness matter most.
Let me know how you are positioning around these key levels and which scenario you think is most likely to play out.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Analysis is for educational purposes only; trade your own plan and manage risk.
Acronyms:
C - Composite
w - Weekly
m - Monthly
VAH - Value Area High
VAL - Value Area Low
VPOC - Volume Point of Control
LVN - Low Value Node
HVN - High Value Node
LVA - Low Value Area
SP - Single print
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #263👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s move on to Bitcoin analysis. Today, the market may continue its bearish move.
⌛️ 1-Hour Timeframe
On this timeframe, after getting rejected from the 71,616 high, Bitcoin is moving down toward its support at 67,735.
🔍 At the moment, price has reacted around 68,732, and it could now enter a ranging phase. In that case, we can look to open a short position on a break of 68,732.
📊 Otherwise, we can wait and look for a short entry on the break of 67,735.
✨ For long positions, our trigger remains the break of 71,616. If buying volume starts to increase, we can enter a long position once this level is broken.
⚡️ A break above 71,616 would give us the first bullish signal, and after that, forming higher highs and higher lows above this area would confirm a trend reversal to the upside.
✔️ However, if the short trigger at 67,735 gets activated, price could move toward 62,824. A break below 62,824 would then signal the start of the next bearish leg.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
SOL 1W Update: Zoomed out thoughts and viewSolana’s weekly dump is showing signs of exhaustion, with downside momentum clearly decelerating as price presses into a major long-term demand zone around 80–85. The sell-off has been steep and highly directional within a falling channel, which often precedes mean-reversion relief moves rather than immediate continuation. Notably, SOL has already retraced a large portion of its prior impulse leg and is now trading well below former range support at 125.5, suggesting late sellers are entering after most of the damage has been done. While the broader structure remains corrective until higher levels are reclaimed, the risk–reward is beginning to shift in favor of short-term upside relief. A bounce toward 100–110 would be a reasonable first reaction if buyers step in, with a more meaningful trend improvement requiring acceptance back above 125.5. As long as 44 holds as macro support, this move still fits a deep bull-market correction, and current price action favors stabilization and a counter-trend bounce rather than continued freefall.
Give them Nothing, but take from them everything!Good day Traders and investors,
The million dollar question right now...
Is the bottom in ?
The truth... No one really knows.
However, I feel as if is very very close. Closer than most realize.
If you measure from the top of price action, there is no way the bottom would even be close yet. There simply has not been enough time.
If you measure from the bottoms using the RSI. There has 100% been enough time to call it or say it's close.
Approx. 55k should be the bottom , at least from what I am seeing at this point in time.
The truth is anything can happen. The only thing we can do is take historical data, and use it to mitigate risk.
The fear and greed is also lining up with the RSI Both at levels that were the best buy areas of prior market bottoms. Take a look at the time separation from market to market. This is a weekly chart, so those measurements are weeks. The RSI is resetting, while fear is in extreme territory. This has always been a very good time to accumulate. This is not my opinion, its a historical fact.
Never let fear rule you.
Regards,
WeAreSatoshi
Weekly Review of Your TradesA weekly review is not a recap of wins and losses. It is a diagnostic process. The goal is to identify patterns in behavior, execution, and decision-making that are invisible during live trading. Without this review, mistakes repeat quietly and improvements stay accidental.
The review begins with context. Each trade should be grouped by market environment: trending, ranging, or transitioning. Volatility conditions and session timing matter. A losing trade taken during thin liquidity or volatility expansion carries a different lesson than one taken during a clean trend. Results mean very little without environment classification.
Next comes execution sequencing. Review whether trades followed the intended order of events. Liquidity interaction, structural shift, displacement, and retest should be evaluated in that sequence. When trades fail, the question is not whether the idea was wrong, but which step was skipped or rushed. Most performance leaks come from entering before permission is established.
Risk behavior deserves its own section. Compare planned risk to actual exposure. Check whether position size increased after wins or clustered during the same session. Identify correlation between trades that relied on the same narrative. Many drawdowns are not caused by bad ideas but by stacking exposure when conditions deteriorate.
Entry and exit behavior often reveals more than setups. Early exits during valid moves point to discomfort with unrealized profit. Late exits on losers point to avoidance of taking losses. These patterns repeat until they are measured. The chart alone rarely explains them.
Quantify execution quality separately from outcome. Track how many trades met all setup criteria, how many were partial alignments, and how many were impulse decisions. A profitable week with poor execution is a warning sign. An unprofitable week with disciplined execution is often progress.
The final step is adjustment. One or two focused changes are enough. Narrow session windows, reduce exposure during specific environments, or tighten rules around confirmation. A weekly review should simplify trading, not complicate it.
Consistency is built between trades, not during them. The weekly review is where structure replaces emotion and where improvement becomes intentional rather than accidental.
BTC — Range Deviation Play & Bear Flag TargetBitcoin continues to trade inside a clearly defined sideways range. Recently, the price made a deviation above the range high — a classic false breakout — and quickly returned back inside the channel, confirming the upper boundary as strong resistance.
Now, on the daily timeframe , the market is forming a bear flag , which typically acts as a continuation pattern to the downside. If this structure breaks lower, it opens the way toward the $68–67K zone , which aligns perfectly with the lower boundary of the range.
A move into this area would likely create a deviation below the range low, mirroring the earlier deviation at the top. Such symmetrical deviations often signal liquidity grabs before a potential mid-term reversal.
Key Points:
Range structure remains intact
Upper deviation confirmed — failed breakout
Daily bear flag suggests continuation lower
Target: $68–67K (potential lower deviation zone)
This scenario remains valid as long as BTC stays below the mid-range and the bear flag structure holds.
Bitcoin Cycle Fractal: Consolidation Before Bear Market 2026History Repeats: 2020–2022 vs 2024–2026
In 2020 , before the strong bull run of 2020–2021, Bitcoin formed a clear bull flag consolidation on the higher timeframe.
After the bull market top in 2021 , price entered a distribution phase , forming a bearish structure, which eventually led to the bear market of 2022.
The current market structure looks very similar.
During 2024–2025, Bitcoin is again consolidating after a strong impulse, forming a rising structure that resembles previous pre-bear-market consolidations.
If this fractal continues to play out, I expect:
Continuation of consolidation in 2025
Transition into a bear market in 2026
My near-term downside target is the 60–65k USD range, which aligns with previous support and structural levels.
S-Tier or E-Tier? — Rating your SetupNot all trades deserve the same risk. Treating every setup as equal is one of the fastest ways to flatten performance. Rating your setup forces you to separate opportunity from activity and adjust exposure based on quality.
A setup is not rated by how clean it looks. It is rated by how many conditions align before execution. The first condition is environment. Volatility, session, and market phase determine whether continuation is likely or whether noise dominates. A technically valid setup taken during thin liquidity or transition phases deserves a lower rating than the same setup during active participation.
The second condition is location. Entries taken near higher timeframe levels, inside discount or premium zones, and close to liquidity objectives carry more weight than entries taken mid-range. Good location reduces invalidation distance and improves risk efficiency. Poor location forces wider stops and relies on hope rather than structure.
Sequence is the third factor. High-quality setups follow a clear order of events: liquidity taken, structure shifts, displacement appears, and a retest confirms acceptance. When a trade skips steps, its rating drops. A setup entered on the first touch of a level without confirmation may work occasionally, but it should never be rated highly.
Momentum and follow-through add another layer. Clean impulse away from the entry zone signals participation. Weak or overlapping candles signal uncertainty. A setup with strong follow-through deserves more confidence than one that relies on slow grinding movement.
Risk clarity is the final filter. A setup is stronger when invalidation is obvious and contained. If the stop is based on a vague percentage or an emotional tolerance rather than a structural point, the setup quality is lower regardless of how attractive the potential reward looks.
Rating your setup is not about finding perfect trades. It is about matching risk to conditions.
High-rated setups justify full risk. Mid-rated setups justify reduced size. Low-rated setups are often best ignored. Over time, this process reduces drawdowns, limits emotional decision-making, and shifts focus from frequency to quality. Consistency improves when risk follows logic instead of excitement.
IREN Still lower to complete wave 4NASDAQ:IREN printed another daily bearish divergence in a downtrend, signalling continued momentum to the downside. Price met the 200EMA and caught a bid Friday closing its candle only +5%, a far cry from the competitors last week, considering its volatility, showing weakness.
The narrative and buzz of the bull run is still being sold into as investors are still greedy.
Wave C of 4 has a termina target f the major High Volume Node support and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, the highest probability area for wave 4 to end, $27.
Daily RSI has room to fall. The daily pivot is lost.
Safe trading
BITCOIN always leads stocks when Bear Cycles happen. This time??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed a more than -50% drop last week from its October 2025 All Time High (ATH) while stocks stayed close to their ATH. This chart shows that while BTC is obviously on a Bear Cycle, the S&P500 (SPX) illustrated by the blue trend-line, is still on Bull Cycle territory.
So why this huge divergence between BTC and stocks. Well looking at it historically, this is not uncommon. During the 2022 Bear Cycle, Bitcoin had to crash by more than -40% before the stock market started its own correction, while in 2018 Bitcoin again crashed by more than -50% before the SPX started a Bear Cycle.
This is very logical from a long-term investing standpoint as investors seek first to liquidate the massive profits on riskier assets like Bitcoin, add some remaining capital on stocks and then when the stock market shows signs of a long-term correction, withdraw their funds from there as well. This is usually when the USD takes off as they convert stocks to dollars and choose to weather out the storm primarily in cash (others might choose precious metals).
In any event, this analysis shows that since Bitcoin is already down by more than -50% from its historic High, we might be seeing a Bear Cycle starting on the S&P500 as well.
Do you agree with that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CIFR Triangle path played out nicely..NASDAQ:CIFR triangle in wave B played out, following my path closely, touching the daily 200EMA and major High Volume Node support line, at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. This is a highly probable place for wave 4 to end.
Triangle are a penultimate pattern, so that thrust lower last week should mark the end of the downtrend.
There is no divergence in the daily RSi and has a little room left to hit oversold but can do so on a bullish divergence without a new low.
Price closed Fridays candle at the highs +16% showing consumer confidence to hold over the weekend news cycle.
Safe trading
COIN, Elliot wave degree changed, Wave 2 complete?NASDAQ:COIN has a larger sell off then expected completely falling out of its rising wedge. This suggests that the top was a wave 1, completing 5 wave ups diminishing with wave V, with a poke above all time high, IPO launch.
The Elliot wave count is textbook. Wave C of 2 looks to have complete 5 waves down, just below the weekly 200EMA at the major High Volume Node support, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. While the trend remains down and below the weekly pivot I think Friday was a capitulation event and we move up from here. Theres always a sweep of the lows possible first.
Friday closed at the daily candle high, showing investor confidence to hold over the weekend news and BTC price cycle.
Weekly RSI is tapping oversold, with slight hidden bullish divergence.
Safe trading






















