THE 3 TRADES THAT KILL FUNDED ACCOUNTSI keep seeing the same 3 trades right before traders blow their funded accounts.
It’s usually not because they don’t know how to trade.
It’s because, in these moments, emotions take over and the plan disappears.
1) FOMO after news: Price moves fast, you feel scared of missing out, and you jump in late. Most of the time, you’re buying near the top and take a big loss.
2) Revenge trade: You take a loss, get angry, and want to “get it back” right away. That next trade usually makes the hole deeper.
3) Oversizing after wins: You have a few good trades, feel unbeatable, and suddenly use way too much size. One normal loser then wipes out days or weeks of progress.
These 3 trades show up in a huge number of blown accounts and resets worked with. They are more about feelings than skill.
If you read this and thought, “That’s me,” you’re not broken. You’re just human.
If FOMO is your main problem, comment “FOMO” and share when it hits you the most.
will DM you one simple thing that has helped other traders handle it better
Trade Smarter Live Better
Kris
Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)
Bitcoin Just Did This at Support… Is the Bounce RealBTC/USD – H4 MARKET ANALYSIS
1. Current Market Structure
Bitcoin has completed a sharp bearish impulse and is now reacting from a clearly defined support zone. The strong sell-off flushed liquidity below the previous range, followed by an immediate bounce a typical sign of demand absorption rather than trend continuation to the downside.
At the moment, price is transitioning into a recovery phase, but the structure remains corrective, not impulsive yet.
2. Key Zones & Market Positioning
Support Zone: ~85,300 – 85,900 → Strong demand area where buyers stepped in aggressively
Target 1: ~87,900 → First reaction level / prior structure resistance
Target 2: ~89,900 → Range high / key liquidity pool
Target 3: ~94,000 – 95,000 → Major resistance & supply zone (higher timeframe)
3. Price Action & Liquidity Behavior
- The rejection from the support zone shows long lower wicks and follow-through buying
- This suggests sell-side liquidity has been absorbed
- Current pullbacks are shallow, indicating buyers are defending higher lows
This behavior aligns with a relief rally → consolidation → continuation structure.
4. Market Scenarios
Primary Scenario (High Probability):
- Price holds above the support zone
- Builds a higher low structure
- Gradual push toward Target 1, followed by Target 2
- If momentum accelerates, expansion toward Target 3
Alternative Scenario:
- Failure to hold above the support zone
- Strong bearish close below demand
- Would invalidate the bullish recovery and open deeper downside
5. Trading Perspective
Bias: Buy the pullback, not chase the breakout
Best opportunities lie near demand, not at resistance
Market is currently recovering, not reversing trend fully yet
Summary
Bitcoin is not collapsing.
It is stabilizing, absorbing liquidity, and preparing for a potential multi-leg recovery.
As long as the support zone holds, the roadmap remains clear:
Demand → Recovery → Targets expansion.
Bitcoin Is Sitting on a Decision ZoneMARKET BRIEFING – BTC/USD (1H)
Market State:
– Bitcoin has completed a sharp sell-off into a strong support zone and is now stabilizing, showing early signs of absorption rather than continuation lower. Momentum has paused, not flipped.
Key Levels:
– Strong Support Zone: 85,100 – 85,600
– Range Top / Reclaim Level: ~88,000
– Major Resistance: 91,500 – 92,000
Price Action:
– Selling pressure weakened immediately upon reaching support, followed by compression — typical range-building behavior after an impulsive drop.
– Structure suggests sideways consolidation before the market chooses direction.
Next Move:
– Expect continued rotation inside the 85,100 – 88,000 range.
– A clean reclaim above 88,000 opens the path toward 91,500 – 92,000.
– Failure to hold 85,100 would invalidate the base and reopen downside risk.
Bitcoin is not breaking down it’s being absorbed.
Until price exits the range with acceptance, time is the key variable, not direction.
Bitcoin Is Pausing — Not BreakingBitcoin on H1 is transitioning into a controlled consolidation following the sharp impulsive move, with price now rotating inside a well-defined range below resistance. The recent pullback failed to trigger continuation lower and instead formed a higher low within the structure, signaling that sellers are losing momentum while buyers continue to defend demand.
This price behavior points to absorption rather than distribution. Liquidity is building inside the range as the market digests the prior impulse, with neither side showing enough strength yet to force expansion. As long as BTC holds above the lower boundary of the structure, the bias remains constructive, favoring a gradual rotation back toward the upper range and the Target 2–Target 3 area.
From a macro perspective, this consolidation aligns with a broader wait-and-see environment across risk assets, as markets remain sensitive to U.S. macro data and expectations around monetary policy. With no decisive shift in liquidity conditions or risk sentiment, Bitcoin is mirroring that uncertainty through range-bound price action rather than trend continuation.
A clean acceptance above resistance would signal alignment between technical structure and macro conditions, opening the door for continuation. Until then, this remains a patience phase chasing moves inside the range offers low edge, and direction will only reveal itself once price exits the structure with clear intent.
BTC Is Quiet… That’s When Explosions Begin.BITCOIN (BTC/USD) – 1H MARKET ANALYSIS
1. Current Market Structure
Bitcoin has completed a sharp bearish impulse, followed by a clear range based consolidation inside a defined demand zone. Price is no longer making lower lows aggressively, indicating selling pressure has been absorbed. The market is transitioning from distribution into accumulation on the 1H timeframe.
Key observation:
- Strong impulsive drop → liquidity grab
- Sideways compression → energy building phase
This is not random ranging it is structured consolidation after a sell-off.
2. Key Zones & Liquidity Mapping
Demand / Accumulation Zone: ~85,200 – 86,300
→ Area where buyers are actively defending and absorbing sell orders.
Mid Resistance: ~87,700 – 88,000
→ First reaction zone once price breaks the range.
Major Resistance / Target: ~89,800 – 90,000
→ Prior supply + liquidity resting above equal highs.
As long as price remains above the demand zone, downside risk is limited.
3. Market Psychology
This is the phase where:
- Retail traders lose patience due to slow movement.
- Weak hands exit positions inside the range.
- Smart money accumulates quietly at discounted prices.
The repeated up–down movement inside the green box is liquidity engineering, not indecision.
4. Primary Scenarios
Main Scenario (Preferred):
Continued consolidation inside the demand zone.
Formation of higher lows within the range.
Break above range high → momentum expansion.
Target progression:
TP1: ~87,800
TP2: ~89,000
TP3: ~89,800–90,000
Invalidation Scenario:
Clean 1H close below ~85,200.
Would open downside continuation currently low probability based on structure.
5. Summary & Trading Insight
Bitcoin is behaving exactly as expected after a strong sell-off:
✔ Liquidity taken
✔ Accumulation confirmed
✔ Breakout preparation in progress
This is a patience market. Those who wait for structure confirmation will be positioned ahead of momentum traders.
The market rewards discipline, not urgency. Stay aligned with structure not emotions.
MSTR. When Bitcoin sneezes, Strategy looks for the floorMSTR is deep in a corrective phase after the rally to 543. The current decline does not signal a structural breakdown but a return to a major demand zone at 100–102, where long term support and prior accumulation align. Selling volume is fading, suggesting seller exhaustion rather than panic. As long as price holds above 100–102, the recovery scenario remains valid. Initial rebound targets sit near 230, followed by 300 if market structure stabilizes.
Fundamentally, Strategy remains the most leveraged public Bitcoin proxy. As of December 2025, the company holds over 214000 BTC, making it the largest public Bitcoin holder globally. The average acquisition price remains well below historical highs, reducing long term downside risk. In Q3 2025, the company reported an increase in digital asset value as crypto markets recovered. The core analytics software business remains stable, while debt servicing shows no liquidity stress. Strategy is no longer just a software company. It is a macro Bitcoin instrument in equity form.
When Bitcoin panics, MSTR falls harder. But it usually stands up first when the cycle turns.
A Pause After the Rally, Base Forming Around 2.8k–3.2kHello everyone, this is Domic.
Looking back at ETH on the weekly timeframe, the broader picture is quite clear. After a strong rally that pushed price into the 4,800–5,000 zone, the market entered a necessary corrective phase. This pullback brought ETH down toward the 2.8k–3.0k area, right around the midpoint of the prior impulse leg. The way price has reacted suggests this is more of a pullback into a base for “rest and re-accumulation,” rather than the beginning of a new bearish cycle.
From an EMA perspective, ETH is currently trading below the EMA34 near 3,385 but has only pulled back modestly and continues to hover close to the EMA89 around 3,060. What stands out is that both EMA34 and EMA89 are starting to flatten, no longer sloping sharply lower. This often signals a transition from a fast corrective phase into a more balanced state, where supply and demand are temporarily finding equilibrium. Price consolidating around the EMA89 after a major advance typically reflects a pause to rebuild momentum, not a breakdown that leads to successive lower lows.
On the medium-term structure, the most recent low around 2.5k–2.6k remains clearly higher than the lows formed before ETH’s strong breakout, meaning the weekly higher-low structure is still intact. Recent weekly candles have relatively small bodies with balanced upper and lower wicks, while volume has been gradually declining. This is a familiar signature of a healthy correction, where profit-taking pressure has largely been absorbed and sellers no longer have enough conviction to push price significantly lower.
With this type of price behavior, the most appropriate view at this stage is that ETH is entering an accumulation phase around the 2.8k–3.2k range, while the broader trend still leans mildly bullish.
Wishing you successful trading!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) — Base Forming Ahead of a Bullish BreakoutBitcoin is approaching a critical moment . After a prolonged decline downside momentum has clearly slowed and price is beginning to stabilize , which is a common sign that selling pressure is being gradually absorbed . On the macro side market sentiment has improved slightly as investors grow more comfortable with expectations of easier financial conditions ahead , giving risk assets some room to recover.
On the H1 chart , the technical picture is turning constructive . BTC is forming a double bottom within a descending structure , showing strong buyer participation around the same support zone . At the same time price is pressing against the descending trendline , suggesting that seller control is weakening . This combination typically appears near transition phases rather than during strong bearish continuation.
The key now is confirmation . A clean breakout and close above the descending trendline would activate the double bottom target near 90000 , signaling a shift from corrective price action into a new bullish phase . Until that breakout occurs patience remains essential , but the technical risk to reward is starting to favor the upside .
Next Volatility Period: Around December 23rd
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Follow us to get the latest updates quickly.
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-------------------------------------
#BTCUSDT
To initiate a bullish trend, the price must rise above and sustain the OBV Low indicator level.
Considering the basic trading strategy of buying around DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low and selling around HA-High ~ DOM(60), the current price position represents a buying opportunity.
However, if the price falls between DOM(-60) and HA-Low, a stepwise downward trend is likely, so you should consider a response plan.
If the price falls below the DOM(-60) indicator, you should check for support around the 69000-73499.86 level.
This is because the 69000-73499.86 level represents an important support and resistance zone for sustaining an uptrend from a long-term perspective.
If the price declines from the 69,000-73,499.86 range, it is expected to form an uptrend around 42,000, a level never seen again.
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If the price rises above the OBV Low indicator level and continues its upward trend, we should check for an upward breakout near the area circled on the chart.
If the price fails to break out, we should consider a response plan, as this could signal a full-blown bear market.
If the price continues to rise, the target levels are: - Right Fibonacci ratio 2.618 (133,889.92)
- Right Fibonacci ratio 3 (151,018.77) ~ 3.14 (157,296.36)
It is expected to re-establish the trend by rising near the above range.
The coin market is likely to experience a major bear market around the week of January 26, 2026.
-
Thank you for reading.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
------------------------------------------------------
the chart doesn’t care about your fear.( repost, original post on my old account: @notoriousbids )
---
this is not your average joe count.
i’m not telling you that btc is going to 185k.
the chart is.
out here, we close our eyes, take a breath to clear the mind, and when our eyes open, we look at what is in front of us without bias.
the chart in front of me looks very constructive. from the lows at $15,460, btc appears to have advanced in a clear three wave move. wave three just printed an extension, which is common in crypto. if you look closely, the sub-waves of wave one and wave four show no overlap. sub-wave one itself extended, giving wave three a contracting appearance, but this was not a contraction. this was a manipulated pause, designed to re accumulate supply during wave four.
while you sell and flip bearish, there are entities out there with capital that dwarfs the entire market cap of your bitcoin, quietly absorbing every coin you are willing to give up at these discounted levels.
---
wave fours are notorious for producing fear, uncertainty, and doubt. however, we have something on our side that neutralizes that noise completely. it is called the law of alternation.
in elliott wave theory, the law of alternation states that if wave two is flat, wave four will be sharp (and vice versa). that is exactly what played out. wave two in 2023 was flat and corrective by nature, which opened the door for the sharp wave four we have been experiencing in the modern day.
---
during this sharp wave four, a significant hidden bullish divergence formed between the wave two low and the wave four low, as shown on the chart. this hidden bullish divergence exists across multiple timeframes and on several oscillators, even on the monthly scale. that alone suggests that my 185k upside target may actually be conservative.
don’t ask me how high i think this can go.
the answer will sound unreasonable to anyone still anchored to fear.
---
🎯 = 185k
The Real Signal Isn’t BTCUSD — It’s the Bitcoin/Gold Ratio!When we read BTCUSD, XAUUSD, and the BTC/Gold ratio together on a monthly logarithmic chart, the real story is told not by price, but by the ratio.
Even if Bitcoin looks strong in USD terms, rallies tend to slow down whenever Bitcoin loses strength against gold.
So why does this happen?
Let’s break it down with 3 key points.
• 19.43 stands out as a critical threshold for the BTC/Gold ratio (orange). During the 2020–2021 bull market, this level marked a local bottom, after which Bitcoin launched its second parabolic move and rallied up to $69K.
• After the 2021 peak, the ratio moved against Bitcoin and stayed below the critical 19.43 level for nearly two years, during which Bitcoin experienced a severe bear market. From November 2022 onward, the ratio strengthened again in Bitcoin’s favor, leading to a rally that carried BTC as high as $124K.
• However, starting in July 2025, the BTC/XAU ratio failed to break above its previous peak and began forming lower highs. This signaled a shift in favor of gold. As the ratio declined, the preference for safe-haven assets became more dominant and clearly showed that Bitcoin is still not perceived by investors as a short-term risk-off asset. In periods of uncertainty, capital once again preferred flowing into gold rather than into risky assets like Bitcoin.
Conclusion
If the BTC/Gold ratio can hold above 19.43, Bitcoin may enter a new phase of relative strength against gold. Otherwise, gold’s leadership is likely to continue, implying a period where Bitcoin may rise in USD terms but remain relatively weak.
The real question is this:
Will Bitcoin make its next parabolic move, or will it remain in gold’s shadow for a while longer?
Bitcoin Short and Medium term review.Bitcoin Current rate : 85880
Still the resistance and support at 87720 and 83704.
Despite Volatile, holding between these two resistance and support for the 4th week successfully. The Support zones was posted on 19-Nov-2025. Please view the report.
The maximum downfall ( support) can be till 73800.
Even if there is a fall, accumulate on dips as parcel for a target of 123,000.
In long term it can touch 170000 probably by next 1-1.5 year.
Bitcoin Imminent 2D Death Cross🔴The Bitcoin 2-day chart is approaching a death cross in the coming days.
While volatility has remained relatively stagnant since price retested the Weekly 100 EMA (around 85k🎯) in late November, it may spike as the death cross forms. The key support level to watch is a break below that W100 EMA, which would likely target the April lows of 77k-74k🎯.
🔵The next major resistance upon finding support is the Weekly 21 EMA, currently in the 100k-103k🎯 zone (In confluence with the 2D death cross zone)
🔵In summary, the overall structure remains bearish, though a corrective move upward is possible before any sustained downtrend resumes in the coming months.
Disclaimer: This is a hypothetical framework for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It is not a guaranteed predictor of future market performance. Always conduct your own research and understand the risks involved before making any investment decisions.
Bearish Trap or Real Breakdown?Right now, we are sitting at $87,158, which puts us smack in the middle of equilibrium between the recent swing high at $94,555 and the swing low at $85,073. This isn’t just a random spot on the chart; it’s a critical decision point where the market structure is giving us distinct clues. The big development here is the CHoCH Bearish that just confirmed. For those tracking Smart Money Concepts, that is a Change of Character to the downside, meaning we have broken the sequence of higher lows. The bullish structure that held for weeks has flipped, and we need to adjust our playbook accordingly.
Let’s talk technical confluence, because when you layer the indicators, the story gets very specific. Price is trading below all three major EMAs (20, 50, and 200), creating a bearish alignment across the board. When you are below your moving average stack like this, the path of least resistance is typically down. The MACD confirms this with a deeply bearish reading of -1087, and the gap between the signal lines is widening—momentum is pointing south with conviction.
However, this is where the setup gets tricky and why you need to think two moves ahead. The RSI is hovering around 34, approaching oversold territory, and the most recent candle printed a massive 64.5% lower wick. That tells us someone stepped in to buy "fair value" with size. We are not quite at panic levels, but we are close enough that a relief bounce is absolutely on the table.
This creates a tension in the market: The structure says "sell," but the immediate momentum says "bounce." The tie-breaker here is the ADX, which is sitting at 62.7. This signals a powerful trending environment. This isn't choppy, directionless price action; when ADX is above 60, trends tend to persist. So, while the RSI warns of a bounce, the ADX says do not fight the trend without clear confirmation.
So, here is the roadmap.
The primary scenario favors a rejection at resistance. Any relief bounce from here likely runs straight into the Bearish Order Block (Supply Zone) between $89,429 and $90,617. This area is stacked with confluence: it contains unfilled sell orders, a bearish FVG, and sits just below the premium zone threshold. If we see price rally into that $89k–$90k region, it becomes a high-probability short opportunity. We would be looking for rejection signals there to target the swing low at $85,073. Break that level, and we are looking at the Bullish Order Block demand zone between $83,786 and $86,625, where I’d expect serious buying interest to finally emerge.
If you are looking to take a trade, patience is your edge here. Shorting into the hole at $87k with an oversold RSI is risky. The better risk-adjusted play is waiting for that bounce into the $88,500–$90,000 range. Your invalidation level (stop loss) is a 4H close above $90,617. If price closes above that level, it negates the bearish order block and invalidates the supply thesis.
On the flip side, if the bulls manage to reclaim $91,066 (the premium zone threshold), it triggers a CHoCH Bullish reversal. That would flip the entire structure back in favor of the bulls, targeting $94,185. But right now, with the volume running 2x the average and the internal bias sitting at neutral/bearish, that is the lower probability path.
Bottom line: The structure favors downside continuation, but only after a potential relief bounce. We have a confirmed trend shift, bearish EMA stacks, and strong volume on the decline. Don't get trapped shorting the bottom of the range, and don't get trapped longing a "dead cat" bounce. Wait for the test of supply at $90k, watch for the rejection, and trade the path of least resistance.
Confidence is sitting at roughly 75% on the bearish continuation due to the structural damage, but the oversold conditions demand we wait for better entry prices.
Monero: "Delisting is a Feature"What if NOT being listed on major Centralized Exchanges is Monero's greatest bull case?
Most investors assume the same thing:
Assets go up because they attract speculative capital.
Liquidity, listings, leverage, and visibility are treated as prerequisites for valuation.
So Monero’s biggest “problem” — being delisted from major centralized exchanges due to its privacy guarantees — is usually framed as fatal.
But what if that assumption is backward?
What if removal from the speculative casino is precisely why Monero behaves differently — and arguably better — than the rest of crypto?
The common criticism (and why it persists)
The standard argument goes like this:
Monero’s privacy features make it non-compliant with evolving regulations.
That forces centralized exchanges to delist it.
Without exchange access, speculative inflows dry up.
Without speculation, price stagnates.
That narrative has circulated for years. It sounds logical.
It’s also increasingly contradicted by reality.
Despite repeated delistings, Monero has emerged as one of the most uncorrelated assets in the entire crypto market.
And correlation — not volatility — is what quietly destroys portfolios.
What the charts are actually showing
INDEX:BTCUSD
CRYPTO:ETHUSD
CRYPTO:SOLUSD
CRYPTO:DOGEUSD
CRYPTO:XRPUSD
This morning’s sharp up/down move rippled across crypto almost uniformly.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Doge, XRP — all displayed the same pattern:
A volatility spike
A break from bearish consolidation
A quick rejection back into the range or lower
It was a textbook “low-volume volatility quake.”
Monero barely reacted.
While the rest of the market moved as a single organism — pushed and pulled by the same algos, market makers, and thin liquidity — Monero’s bullish trend remained largely uninterrupted.
When everything moves together except one asset, that exception matters.
The delisting that changed the story
On February 6, 2024, Monero dropped over 30% overnight.
At first, I assumed the worst — a cryptographic failure or privacy compromise.
Instead, the cause was simple:
Binance delisted Monero for regulatory non-compliance with privacy coins.
In other words, Monero was punished for working exactly as designed.
I held.
This ended up being a market reaction quickly abated and Monero has rallied over 300%.
The selloff faded quickly.
Since that low, Monero has rallied more than 300%.
Being removed from the highest-volume exchange did not suppress Monero’s value.
If anything, it may have liberated it.
The overlooked mechanism
Most cryptocurrencies are now:
Heavily centralized around exchanges
Continuously arbitraged
Priced primarily through leverage and relative flows
That makes them efficient — and tightly correlated.
Monero exists increasingly outside that system.
With fewer algos, less leverage, and limited access to reflexive speculation, Monero’s price is influenced more by:
Actual usage
Holder conviction
Intrinsic demand for private settlement
That doesn’t make it exciting every day.
It makes it structurally different.
And markets eventually reward assets that don’t break the same way everything else does.
A thought worth sitting with
Most people believe delistings remove value.
That belief feels obvious — until you watch an asset stop reacting to the same forces that destabilize everything else.
Monero may not be underperforming because it lacks speculation.
It may be outperforming because it no longer depends on it.
In a market addicted to correlation, independence is not a bug.
It’s the feature everyone overlooks — right up until it matters.
BTCUSDT.P - December 18, 2025Bitcoin has just posted a sharp vertical rally into the 90,300 resistance area, leaving price extended after a strong impulsive leg.
The chart outlines a pullback‑and‑resume long idea, with the 86,150–86,650 retracement band as the primary buy zone and 84,980 as the invalidation level; as long as price holds above that support, momentum favors another attempt to revisit or exceed the recent 90,300 high.
BTC - Shakeout Complete… Is the Trap Set???Bitcoin just delivered a classic manipulation move into the higher-timeframe demand zone❗️ The sharp sell-off below structure flushed late longs and triggered stops, only to be quickly reclaimed.
That’s not weakness. That’s intent.
📉📈From a structural perspective , this demand zone has already proven itself before. Price reacted strongly from it in the past, and once again, buyers stepped in aggressively after the sweep. This suggests the downside move was more about liquidity than genuine trend reversal.
⁉️ Now comes the key question.
⚔️As long as BTC holds above this demand and continues to build acceptance, the focus shifts to a recovery move back into the prior structure and supply zone above. That area will be the real test, whether this bounce is just a correction, or the start of a larger continuation.
For now, patience is key. Let price show its hand near demand before committing.
Is this the reset before the next leg higher, or just a temporary relief bounce? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
BTC | UPDATE📊 BTC Update — Key Levels in Play
Bitcoin is currently reacting near a critical structure zone. Price holding above support keeps the bullish scenario valid, with momentum favoring a continuation toward the next resistance level. A clean reaction from these levels could confirm further upside.
🔓 Entry: 87,195
❌ Stop Loss: 85,843
🎯 Target: 88,098
Market structure and liquidity around this area make it a level worth watching closely.
What’s your bias from here — continuation or rejection? 👇
Support with a like if this helps your analysis 🚀
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post reflects personal market analysis. Not financial advice.
BTCUSD — Trade Structure Update | Long Scenario ValidationThis idea outlines a long trade scenario on BTCUSD identified and evaluated using an analytical indicator focused on trade structure, risk boundaries, and statistical context .
The current configuration suggests a potential continuation toward the 91,750 area within the next 24 hours , provided the existing market structure remains intact.
🔍 Trade Structure
• Direction: Long
• Entry Zone: ~87,900
• Stop Loss: ~86,025
• Take Profit: ~91,750
• Risk : Reward: ~1 : 2
This scenario is not derived from a single signal. It is based on structural price behavior , volatility conditions, and historically observed market responses under similar environments.
📊 Statistical Context (Backtest)
For this type of configuration, the indicator provides historical context based on comparable market conditions:
• Net Profit: +660%
• Profit Factor: 2.08
• Win Rate: 51%
• Total Trades: 49
• Max Drawdown: −38%
• Test Period: 83 days
These metrics are presented solely to evaluate scenario stability and are not a prediction of future performance.
🧠 Interpretation
The current setup represents a structured continuation scenario with clearly defined risk parameters, where the potential outcome outweighs the predefined risk within the current market context.
The scenario remains valid until the defined risk boundary is violated .
⚠️ Important Notice
This publication is for analytical and educational purposes only.
It is not financial advice and does not guarantee results.
Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes.
Always apply proper risk management.
INJ | Testing Key Support | Oversold Swing SetupInjective (INJ) is currently holding a crucial support zone between $4.75 and $5.20 — a level that has previously acted as a strong base. On the higher time frames, the asset is deeply oversold, suggesting that a potential bounce or short-term reversal could be forming.
💡 Trade Idea (Swing Long):
Entry Zone: $4.75 – $5.20
Take Profit 1: $7.00 – $8.00
Take Profit 2: $10.00 – $12.00
Stop Loss: Just below $4.50
How to Identify a Ranging Market Before It Traps You.Price is moving. But not every move is an opportunity.
This 1H Bitcoin chart is a textbook example of why traders get chopped up — even when structure and levels look "clear."
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WHAT THIS CHART SHOWS
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Look at the price action from Dec 14–18:
- Dec 14–15: Sideways grind near 90K resistance
- Dec 15: Sharp drop from 90K → 85K (liquidity sweep)
- Dec 16–18: Price trapped in the Chop Zone (85K–88K)
Every push fades. Every breakout attempt stalls. Classic ranging behavior.
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HOW TO SPOT A RANGE
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Ask yourself:
1. Is price making higher highs AND higher lows? → If NO, likely ranging
2. Do breakouts hold? → If they fade quickly, it's a range
3. Is volatility expanding or contracting? → Contracting = range
4. Are there multiple failed attempts at the same level? → Range behavior
On this chart: ❌ No trend structure ❌ Breakouts fade ❌ Volatility flat
Verdict: RANGE — not a trending environment.
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WHY THIS MATTERS
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In ranging conditions:
- Breakouts are more likely to fail
- Continuations lack momentum
- Liquidity sweeps dominate
- Mean-reversion > trend-following
The problem isn't your entry. It's the regime mismatch.
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WHAT TO DO IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
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✓ Reduce position size
✓ Reduce trade frequency
✓ Avoid chasing breakouts
✓ Expect rotation, not extension
✓ Wait for regime shift before trending plays
Waiting is a valid trading decision.
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KEY TAKEAWAY
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Most losses happen when traders force trend logic into a market that isn't trending.
Context first. Execution second.
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This is NOT a trade call. This is NOT a buy/sell signal.
This is an educational breakdown of market behavior.
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): Double Top Confirms Short-Term Bearish ShiftHi
Market Structure:
BTC formed a clear double top, signaling exhaustion near recent highs. This structure marked a shift from bullish momentum to short-term bearish control. Following the rejection, price began making lower highs and lower lows, confirming a local downtrend.
Trend & Price Action:
Price is currently trading below a descending trendline, acting as dynamic resistance. Each attempt to move higher has been capped, reinforcing bearish pressure. The recent pullback toward the trendline appears corrective rather than impulsive.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 88,800 – 89,100
Current Price Area: ~86,900
Major Support / Target: 83,500 – 83,000 (demand zone)
Outlook & Strategy:
As long as price remains below the descending trendline, downside continuation toward 83.5k remains the higher-probability scenario. A confirmed breakout above resistance would be required to invalidate the bearish bias.
Bitcoin Is Still 27% Undervalued — Eyes on the Levels 📌 Bitcoin Is Still 27% Undervalued — Eyes on the Levels 📈
Current price: $86,895
Fair price: $118,443 (Power Law Model)
Bottom price: $49,746 — historically never violated.
We remain in the upward sloping power law channel. As it stands, Bitcoin is 27% undervalued , holding above the dynamic EMA and within range of key decision levels.
Main support sits at $78,796 , but expect a quick wick below it — those are the buys I wait for.
Main resistance sits at $91,067 — if I see a breakout above, I buy that too.
Fair value will be lowered by 29% soon to reflect time spent under the mean — but the formula itself stays unchanged. Bitcoin is still the only asset that fits this curve.
🔒 I never go short on Bitcoin.
Why? Because if BTC drops 2%, some alts will drop 20%.
I hedge with those instead — not with BTC. Know your tools, protect your capital. DYOR
Trading Wisdom 📜
You don’t need to catch the bottom or the top.
Just understand the levels and be ready when price comes to them.
When you're prepared, you don't chase — you execute.
Disclaimer: I'm not a financial advisor — I'm just a trader sharing my chart and opinion. This is how I see the market. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
🧠 Know the Fundamentals
Before you trade the levels, understand the asset. Bitcoin isn’t just price action — it’s a response to broken monetary systems, a hedge against inflation, and a protocol for digital scarcity. The more you grasp what problems it solves, the clearer your conviction becomes when volatility hits. And that is the compass to follow..just remember to have patience, persistance and a risk management in place.






















