Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Continue to Fall?!Bitcoin is currently below the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its descending channel. In the event of an upward correction towards the specified supply zones, it is possible to sell Bitcoin with a better risk-reward ratio.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
Since early September, Bitcoin has shown a steady upward trend, largely fueled by expectations of a Fed rate cut at the FOMC meeting and optimism about its potential impact. When the Federal Reserve finally delivered the long-anticipated 0.25% rate reduction, Bitcoin declined by only about 1%. While the crypto market currently appears somewhat lackluster, the limited reaction can be viewed as a textbook example of the “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic.
The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization remains above $4 trillion. According to CoinMarketCap data, the average performance of the top 20 cryptocurrencies was negative 0.43% during the past week. Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at a neutral level of 51, down six points from last week, moving away from the “greed” zone.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized the rate cut as “risk management” rather than a measure to support a weak economy. This framing may explain the subdued market reaction. Given that markets had already priced in a 96% probability of a 0.25% cut before the official announcement, traders effectively executed the classic playbook of buying the rumor and selling the news.
The political angle of the decision also added uncertainty. Steven Miran, the newly appointed Fed member and former economic adviser to Trump, cast the only dissenting vote, advocating for a larger 0.5% cut instead of the 0.25% reduction.
A chart circulating in the market highlights potential liquidation zones. Prices below spot indicate long positions at risk of liquidation, while prices above spot point to short liquidations. At present, the Max Pain level for longs sits at $112.7K, while the Max Pain level for shorts is at $121.6K, with spot Bitcoin trading around $117.2K. This illustrates the market’s fragile balance—downward movement could trigger long liquidations, whereas an upward breakout may unleash a wave of short squeezes toward recent highs.
Michael Saylor hinted at possible additional purchases, remarking: “The orange dots are moving upward.” He also described Bitcoin as a calm, fair, and impartial tool for resolving conflicts among people.
Meanwhile, last week the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved new general standards that pave the way for broad-scale issuance of crypto-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These regulations allow exchanges such as NYSE, Nasdaq, and Cboe to list spot market crypto ETFs without case-by-case reviews.
As a result, the approval timeline for ETFs has been shortened from over 240 days to around 75 days, greatly simplifying the process for asset managers. Dozens of new ETFs for cryptocurrencies like Solana, Ripple (XRP), and Dogecoin are expected to launch starting in October. This development effectively ends a decade-long case-by-case review process that dates back to the first Bitcoin ETF application in 2013.
While the Trump administration supported progressive crypto regulation, this approach contrasts with the slower regulatory stance seen under Biden. Despite the regulatory breakthrough, firms stress that legal work, marketing efforts, and support services are still required to successfully launch these ETFs.
