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Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency)

Is Bitcoin Quietly Building Power for a Breakout?📌 1. Market Structure Bitcoin on the 1H timeframe is forming a clear higher-low structure off the support zone. Price rejected the green support block aggressively, showing buyer absorption. The current structure is transitioning from a consolidation phase into a potential bullish continuation leg. 📌 2. Key Zones Support Zone (Strong Demand): - Located around the $88,800 – $89,400 region. - Price has tapped this zone multiple times and continues to bounce — clear demand. Resistance Zone (Major Supply): - The large red block at $94,000 – $97,600. - This is the target zone for the next impulse move. 📌 3. Price Action - Price formed a V-shaped recovery from support. - Followed by a sequence of HL → HH attempts, signaling trend resumption. - The latest pullback is shallow — a bullish sign showing sellers are weak. - The green projection aligns perfectly with standard bullish market flow: higher low → push up → correction → strong breakout leg. Momentum is slowly shifting from neutral to bullish. 📌 4. Technical Confirmation -Buyers defended support with strong reaction wicks. -No breakdown beneath the key swing low — bullish structure intact. -Mid-range is now acting as a local accumulation zone. -Liquidity above $91,200 and $92,500 is likely to be targeted next. This setup aligns with classic trend continuation inside a wide range. 📌 5. Trading Plan (Entry – SL – TP) 🎯 Long Setup Entry: 90,300 – 90,450 Stop Loss: 89,650 (below last swing low & support zone) Take Profit 1: 92,500 Take Profit 2: 94,800 Final Target: 97,500 (top of resistance zone) Why this works: You’re entering on a bullish higher low, with low risk and high reward as price moves toward the resistance block.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Matthew_TradeRFX
How Funds Actually Make Money From BitcoinIf you spend more than five minutes on Crypto TikTok (YouTube or X are not much different), you’d think the entire market depends on: - who “bought the dip,” - who “sold the top,” - and which whale “decided” to pump or dump. The screamers with flashy thumbnails and zero understanding yell: - “BlackRock is buying—BULLISH!” - “Whales are selling—CRASH INCOMING!” - “Institutions are entering the market!!!” - No nuance. - No structure. - No clue. Because here’s the truth: What BlackRock buys or sells is almost irrelevant to you. Funds do not make money the way TikTok believes. They don’t need Bitcoin to go up. They don’t need Bitcoin to go down. They need one thing: Movement. Volatility. Math. Let’s destroy the hype and show how funds actually make money. 1. Why “BlackRock is buying BTC” tells you absolutely nothing Retail sees a headline: “ETF inflows: +5,000 BTC today!” And jumps to conclusions: “They know something!” “Price HAS to go up!” “Institutions are bullish!” No. A fund can buy BTC and still be: - 100% hedged - delta-neutral - directionally flat - risk-neutral - fully protected against price movement The purchase is not a bet. It’s a component of a structured position. Buying BTC is just Step 1. What matters is Step 2, 3, 4, 5…—all the parts TikTok doesn’t even know exist. 2. Why TikTok “analysts” have no idea what they’re talking about If someone: - screams in every video, - says “bullish” or “bearish” 40 times a minute, - thinks “institutions pump price,” - doesn’t know what delta, gamma, basis, hedging, ATM straddles are… …then they are not explaining institutional flow. They are farming views and likes, not teaching markets. Let’s be blunt: If you can’t explain a delta-neutral hedge, your opinion about what BlackRock “plans to do” or "is doing" is worthless. So let’s walk through how a real fund uses BTC to print money without caring if price goes up or down. 3. How a real fund makes money from volatility (step-by-step, using $100,000 BTC) Assume: - BTC price = $100,000 - A fund wants exposure to volatility, not direction - They buy a BTC ATM straddle (call + put at 100k) - Delta ≈ 0 - Gamma > 0 → the part that generates money - They also own BTC spot for hedging. - Let’s say the fund holds 1 BTC worth $100,000 as inventory for hedge adjustments. At the start: Delta-neutral. No directional risk. Now let’s see how they profit. Step 2 – BTC goes up 10% → $110,000 Straddle delta becomes +0.5 BTC. The fund is unintentionally long 0.5 BTC. To go back to neutral: The fund sells 0.5 BTC at $110,000. Cash received: 0.5 × 110,000 = $55,000 Theoretical cost basis (100k): 0.5 × 100,000 = $50,000 👉 Profit from hedge = $55,000 – $50,000 = $5,000 Plus, the straddle increased in value due to volatility. Step 3 – BTC drops 10% → $90,000 Now straddle delta flips negative: –0.5 BTC To get back to neutral: The fund buys 0.5 BTC at $90,000. Cash paid: 0.5 × 90,000 = $45,000 If they later sell that BTC at the baseline of 100k: 👉 Profit = $50,000 – $45,000 = $5,000 Again, without needing BTC to go up or down, “as predicted.” This is called: Gamma scalping — the quiet, relentless engine behind institutional P&L. Up move → sell high. Down move → buy low. Repeat. Print. Sleep. 4. Where does the REAL profit come from? A fund earns from: - hedge adjustments (buy low, sell high, but mathematically—not emotionally) - straddle appreciation as realized volatility exceeds implied volatility - basis differences between spot and futures - neutrality to direction, allowing consistent compounding They make money even if Bitcoin swings between 95k–105k for weeks. The only time they lose? When BTC does NOT move. Because then the straddle premium decays. That's it. Nothing to do with faith, predictions, narratives, influencers, or ETF flows. 5. So why should YOU ignore what BlackRock is doing? Because: - You are not BlackRock. - You do not run a delta-neutral book. - You do not make money from gamma exposure. - You do not scalp intraday hedges on $100M positions. - You do not capture basis spreads across spot and derivatives. - You do not have a trading desk rebalancing risk every hour. But the TikTok screamers will still tell you: “Institutional buying = bullish!” “Institutional selling = bearish!” “Whales know something!” They don’t know anything. Especially not about institutional structure. So here’s the punchline: Watching what funds do—without understanding why they do it—is the fastest path to confusion in the best case and destruction in the worst. You don’t have their: - tools, - capital, - execution speed, - risk models, - mandate, - or mathematical framework. So trying to mimic them is not just pointless —it’s dangerous. Final Lesson: Ignore the noise, ignore the hype, ignore the TikTok parade. BlackRock doesn’t care about bull markets or bear markets. BlackRock doesn’t need Bitcoin to moon. BlackRock doesn’t panic when Bitcoin drops. Because BlackRock doesn’t trade the story. They trade the structure. And unless you operate like a fund — stop pretending their moves matter to your trading. You’re not them. You don’t have their machinery. You don’t have their volatility book. So: Stop watching what institutions do. Start understanding what you should do. That’s the difference between surviving and blowing up. P.S: BlackRock and TikTok are used just as an example:)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
21
Selena | BTCUSD -Trend Support Holding | Demand Building BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BTC remains inside a bullish macro channel while repeatedly defending the 89.5k–90k demand zone. Price is compressing directly under the buy-side liquidity cluster at 92.9k–93.6k. This is accumulation, not distribution. A bullish continuation ONLY activates with a clean break of short-term structure. Bullish Continuation Setup Requires: Break above 92.5k Hold above 92.0k after retest Once confirmed: 🎯 Target 1 → 93.2k 🎯 Target 2 → 94.0k 🎯 Target 3 → 96.8k–97.5k (major liquidity draw) Bearish Breakdown Setup Failure of 89.5k demand = collapse. Triggers if: Candle closes below 89.2k Targets: 📉 87.0k 📉 84.8k 📉 82.0k liquidity shelf Bias: Neutral until 92.5k breaks. Bullish above 92.5k. Bearish under 89.2k. ⚠️ For educational purposes only.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Gold-Thoughts-by-Selena
6
BTC After the Flush: Building a Base Into 2026Bitcoin printed a clear correction from the 126,333 spot top into 80,625, a 36% retrace that finally reset an overheated trend. After that impulse down, price stopped bleeding and started building a base. That is the context for my long, not a breakout chase. My first entry triggered at 85,000. If price sweeps lower, I will add, with my final planned entry sitting in the 72,000 to 70,000 region. The whole idea is simple: scale into higher time frame demand after a deep reset, then let the market do the work if it wants to rotate back into risk. Technicals: on the daily, the selloff created an obvious “damage candle” sequence, followed by compression and range behavior. I am treating the 80K to 85K band as the core demand zone. The level that matters for confirmation is the recovery of the mid range resistance around 94,652, because a clean reclaim would shift the structure from “bounce” to “reversal attempt” and opens the door for a move back into the 100K area and, eventually, a retest of the prior ATH zone near 126K if momentum returns. Fundamentals : the macro backdrop is supportive for risk if financial conditions keep easing. The Fed has already moved policy lower and continues to guide the market with forward projections, which is the type of environment that can reprice duration and high beta assets.  At the same time, institutional crypto flows have been rebuilding. CoinShares reported a rebound in digital asset ETP inflows with Bitcoin leading, and daily US spot Bitcoin ETF flow data has also shown positive net flows on recent sessions.  On derivatives, CME positioning and open interest remain a key dashboard for whether this base is being built with size behind it.  Execution note: I am not trying to “be right” on the exact bottom. I am trying to be positioned where the risk is definable and the upside is asymmetric. If the narrative changes, I will adjust. If the market gives the move, I will pay myself and protect capital. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Long
by AR33_
BTC Bullish Setup — High-Probability Trade Plan🔵 Buy Zone: ₹89,500 – ₹90,000 🔻 Stop-Loss: ₹88,000 🎯 Targets: • TP1: ₹92,000 • TP2: ₹94,000 📊 Analysis: BTC is showing strong bullish momentum with buyers defending the support zone near 89,500. As long as price holds above 88,000, the bullish structure remains intact. A breakout from the current consolidation could push price toward 92,000 and then 94,000. 🔍 Strategy: Enter inside the marked buy zone, maintain strict risk management with SL at 88,000, and trail your stop once TP1 hits. Ideal for short-term momentum traders. 👍 Like & Follow for more realtime setups and market insights!
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDLong
by Adijohn
BTCUSDT.P - December 12, 2025The market is in a short‑term downtrend, with price rejecting the recent spike into resistance near 92,600–92,900, where the short entry is positioned. The stop region around 94,500 caps the prior swing high and defines the invalidation level for this bearish structure. As long as price holds below resistance and momentum stays weak, the path of least resistance favors a move back toward the 90,000 support area and potentially the lower band near 89,300.
Short
by miljedtothemoon
SOL: Selling Pressure Rises After Fed SignalsHi everyone, Domic here. The Fed’s decision to cut rates by 0.25% raised hopes for renewed capital inflows into the crypto market, but the Fed’s statement that no further cuts are expected in 2026 keeps sentiment cautious . This caused sharp volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum, spilling over as selling pressure into altcoins, particularly SOL — which is highly sensitive to BTC corrections. Short-term capital continues to favor AI and meme coins, leaving SOL temporarily lacking momentum, even though its ecosystem remains solid in the medium term. On the 2H chart, SOL has officially lost its uptrend structure as price closed strongly below both the 34 EMA and 89 EMA. Closing below these EMAs signals that the bullish momentum is broken and the short-term trend has turned bearish. The breakdown of the $134–135 support zone confirms a bearish Break of Structure, accompanied by a spike in selling volume — indicating that this is a real sell-off, not noise. Currently, price is approaching the $127–129 support zone, seen as the first buffer that could trigger a reaction. However, if selling pressure persists, the $122–124 zone is likely to become the market’s next target. Wishing you successful trading!
Short
by DomicChaina
19
ETH Faces Deep Pullback After Liquidity SweepETH has undergone a sharp correction, dropping from the 3,380–3,400 zone directly into the 3,180–3,200 FVG, where price reacted firmly. This move signals a clear liquidity sweep — a deep probe to collect orders before bouncing at a key demand pocket, reinforcing this FVG as short-term support. To the upside, the 3,300–3,360 bearish FVG remains a major barrier, where ETH previously saw strong rejection. Volume Profile shows thin liquidity in this range, explaining why sellers continue to dominate whenever price retests it. The broader market structure still leans bullish with higher lows intact, but the recent sweep places ETH in a deeper corrective phase. The 3,180–3,200 zone now acts as a crucial pivot: losing it would flip the short-term bias bearish and expose the high-volume 3,000–3,100 region.
Long
by Momonoo
25
$ETHBTC: Weekly trend turning bullish again...Good afternoon lads, Ethereum vs Bitcoin is now bullish in the short and mid term and can trigger a monthly timeframe trend soon if strength persists in the coming month. Sentiment had reached the depths of hell by Friday Nov 21st, when I was at the Devconnect event, chatting with traders and people there I noticed that everyone was against my bullishness, and very keen on confronting or even ridiculing me for my views. Since then, I started to DCA back into crypto positions after having reduced exposure massively when BITSTAMP:BTCUSD was at $115k and CRYPTOCAP:ETH circa $4k. Let's see how things evolve, but know that reward to risk is skewed to the upside here. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
After Russell2000 Post-Tease Breakout, Crypto Bull Run FollowsSince Bitcoin's inception the Russell2000 (IWM) has mimicked a similar pattern involving a tease > dump > breakout with crypto always following suit into a new bull cycle. We all have noticed how most altcoins (such as LTC) didn't follow BTC in price action the past couple of years, but upon yesterday's IWM Breakout into price discovery, we should see altcoins (like LTC) (alongside all kinds of other speculative assets, cyclicals, commodities, etc.) follow suit. This set up suggests a crypto bull run starting now and likely ending within the next 6-12 months.
AMEX:IWMLong
by kodyg4
AVAX - LONG - SQUEEZE TRAIN LOADING Traders, I believe CRYPTOCAP:AVAX is getting ready to load a squeeze train upwards. This move might be quick, fast and harsh, the kind of reversal that catches traders off guard and leaves late shorts wondering what just happened. Price has returned to a deep support zone where two separate Fibonacci retracements align. The 0.786 level from the A to B leg sits exactly at the current price. The 0.886 level from the C to D leg lands in the same place. When two independent fib legs converge like this, it often marks a high interest area where stronger hands quietly position and wait. Before reaching this zone the market swept the Sunday wick. Sunday wicks are created during thin weekend volume without meaningful institutional presence. Because they form on weak liquidity, the market tends to revisit and clear them once real volume returns. Sweeping this wick removed weak weekend longs, cleaned the structure and collected liquidity needed for a sustained move. Order Flow is lining up. Spot buyers are absorbing selling while perp traders are shorting into the lows. Spot CVD is rising which shows genuine demand. Both coin margined and stablecoin margined CVD are falling which shows leveraged shorts pressing down. Net Shorts are increasing at the bottom. Open Interest is rising at the same time. This confirms new short positions are opening rather than closing. When spot accumulation meets leveraged short pressure at deep fib support, the stage is set for a squeeze. The first target above is the 1.618 extension of the A to B leg. This is the expected continuation level after a deep 0.786 retracement. It also aligns with a higher time frame 0.786 level not shown here to keep the chart clean. Confluence at the target strengthens its gravitational pull. AVAX has swept liquidity, tapped strong fib confluence and attracted late shorts into the structure. All the ingredients for a fast upside squeeze are present. Summary • Two fib retracements meet at the current level • Sunday wick swept which removes weak weekend positions • Spot CVD rising which shows real buying • Perp CVD falling which shows leveraged short pressure • Net Shorts rising at the lows • Open Interest rising which confirms new shorts opening • Squeeze conditions forming • First target is the 1.618 extension of A to B • This target aligns with a higher time frame 0.786 Final Thought The market does not shout its intentions. It whispers through structure, flow and confluence. Deep retracements, cleared liquidity and patient accumulation often appear right before sudden expansion. CRYPTOCAP:AVAX feels ready to shift tone and when it does, the shorts gathered at the lows may find themselves riding the squeeze train the wrong way. Targets and Invalidation My first target is 17.115, which aligns with the 1.618 extension of the A to B leg and fits the structure of a classic deep retracement continuation. My second target is 22.5, a level that connects beautifully with mid-range liquidity left behind on the way down and acts as a natural expansion point once the first target is cleared. For the more mid to long term, I am watching 31.25, which sits directly inside a higher time frame inefficiency zone and marks the beginning of true trend continuation rather than a simple corrective squeeze. Invalidation sits cleanly at 12.275, the low of point A. If price breaks below that level, the structure of the current idea collapses and the setup no longer fits the narrative of a squeeze. Until that level is violated, the bullish structure remains intact and the path of least resistance stays upward. ---------------- If you like this analysis, feel free to leave a like or a comment. I am not asking for money and I am not trying to sell anything. I simply enjoy helping people look through the noise and understand the structure beneath the chaos.
Long
by ThetaNomad
Absolute worst case scenario for bitcoin if top is actually in Very few reasons in my opinion to believe the top is currently in but there are a couple worth considering, the fact that it has run the normal 4 year cycle, and that a candle has gotten rejected after a retest of the the top trendline of the channels idea i have been posting since 2023. So even though there still far more reasons currently why the top of the bull market isnt in, I think it is always wise to try to look at all possibilities and angles of the chessboard here so on this chart idea, I am approaching it from the perspective of if the top of the bull market is actually already in even though for now I think that is a lower probability. If indeed the top is in though, then that would allow this head and shoulders pattern I have shown here to have a good liklihood of playing out. If it were to actually validate this head and shoulders pattern its breakdown target would be 38k which lines up perfectly with the monthly 100ma. So although, I personally feel like the bullmarket top being in is currently a low probability, if somehow it is then i think 38k would likely be the next bear market bottom with the monthly 100ma once again being the bear market bottom support. I still think the top isn’t in and we have better odds of entering a supercycle but I must also keep my mind open to a bearish possibility like this one to make sure I am properly prepared for whatever outcome may end up unfolding and am ready to take advantage no matter which way the market heads. *not financial advice*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Bitcoin is approaching a key level at $94,640CRYPTOCAP:BTC #Bitcoin — Bitcoin is approaching a key level at $94,640. The correction in the crypto market continues, and it's now starting in the US stock market. Bitcoin is nearing an important level on the 5-day timeframe—specifically $94,640. That's where market makers and big players have placed limit buy orders, and I think we'll see some major trader liquidations there too. For those who trade Bitcoin exclusively, I've marked a buy level. • Buy limit: $94,640. • Take Profit 1: $130,000 • Take Profit 2: $150,000 The range for wrapping up Bitcoin's cycle is pretty wide, since there are large orders set up there for taking profits. It's tough to pinpoint exactly where the price peak will be—we can only go by the data we can see. • Coinbase: $130,000, $150,000, and possibly $200,000. • Binance: $130,000, $150,000, and likewise, it's unlikely but possible to climb to $200,000. Based on Elliott waves, we're finishing the 5th upward wave, and I figure the peak will hit in 2026, followed by a straight drop. Indicator for Bitcoin miners: The cycle indicator on Bitcoin shows the peak hasn't been reached yet: Samuel Benner's Cycle and the 2026 Peak The "200-year farmer chart," often referred to as Samuel Benner's Cycle Chart, is a historical economic forecasting tool created in 1875 by Ohio farmer and self-taught economist Samuel Benner. It's credited with a "90% success rate" in broad sentiment prediction, and modern applications extend to stocks, crypto, and even solar cycles correlating with recessions. It's best used as a sentiment gauge, not a precise timer. Implications for 2026 The chart marks 2026 as a "B" year—a cycle peak in "Good Times," signaling high prices and a time to sell before transitioning to panic and hard times from 2026-2032. This suggests a potential bull run peak, followed by downturn risks amid global debt, inflation, and geopolitics. As of late 2025, we're in a growth phase approaching this apex, per the model's extensions. Dear friends, it looks like 2026 will mark the end of the growth cycle for Bitcoin and altcoins, so we'll need to find exit points, bail out of the crypto market, stock up on supplies for 3-5 years, and get busy building bunkers 😀🔥.
Long
by SergioRichi
2
WANTED DEAD OR ALIVE ! BITCOIN Based on the chart you shared and your request for an in-depth analysis, I have evaluated the situation from the perspective of an Expert Technical Analyst and Macroeconomist. Below you will find the technical reading of the chart, its comparison with the 1970s Gold fractal, and the academic/economic grounding for why Bitcoin is "mathematically" bound to appreciate in value. 1. Technical Analysis of the Chart: "Rising Channel and Trend Theme" The TradingView chart you shared (Weekly/Logarithmic) clearly illustrates Bitcoin's long-term secular bull market cycle. Formation and Structure: An "Ascending Broadening Wedge" or an "Ascending Channel" structure is evident in the chart. This structure confirms that while volatility increases over time, the bottoms are consistently rising (Higher Lows). Upper Resistance Line (Arrows): The line connecting the 2017 peak, the 2021 double peak, and the 2024-2025 projection. This area acts as an "overbought" zone where profit-taking occurs every time it is tested. Lower Support Line (Numbers 1-2-3): This line is the backbone of the bull market. Point 1 (2023): Bear market reversal and trend initiation. Point 2 (Early 2024): Intermediate correction and confirmation. Point 3 (Current): The region where the price is currently located. The chart indicates that the price is touching the channel support (trendline) and a purely technical upward reaction (green arrow) is expected from here. Technical Deduction: In technical analysis literature, the trend is your friend. As long as the price holds at zone number 3, the technical target is the upper band of the channel, ranging between $140,000 - $180,000. However, if this support breaks, the formation is invalidated, and a deeper correction (bear trap or trend change) would be expected. 2. Historical Similarity: Gold (1970-1980) vs. Bitcoin There are striking academic and structural similarities between Bitcoin's current structure and Gold's movement during the "Great Inflation Era" of 1970-1980. The 1970s Gold Scenario: 1971 Nixon Shock: The US ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold (End of Bretton Woods). This initiated the era of fiat (unbacked) currency. First Rally (1971-1974): Gold rose from $35 to $190 (~5x increase). The Great Correction (1974-1976): Gold lost nearly 50% of its value, falling back to $100. (Investors claimed the "Gold bubble had burst"). Parabolic Rally (1976-1980): Gold went from $100 to $850, marking an ~8.5x increase. Comparison with Bitcoin: Regions 2 and 3 on your chart strongly resemble that painful "shakeout" period of Gold in 1976. At that time, Gold was being repriced as a "store of value" against high inflation and negative real interest rates. Bitcoin is currently in the institutional acceptance phase (ETFs) as "Digital Gold." If the 1970s fractal plays out; the current consolidation (sideways/downward process) is the final major stop before the "Parabolic Mania" phase. 3. Economic and Academic Basis: Why "Must" Bitcoin Rise? This part of your question moves beyond technical analysis into Monetary Economics. Bitcoin gaining value against the dollar stems not just from Bitcoin's "miracle," but from the mathematical weakness of the Dollar (and other fiat currencies). We can explain this using three academic concepts: A. The Denominator Effect and M2 Money Supply The price of an asset is measured as Asset / Currency (BTC/USD). If the denominator (USD) constantly expands, the price rises even if the numerator (BTC) remains constant. As Milton Friedman stated: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon." Central banks (Fed) are forced to continuously print money (Quantitative Easing) to manage debt crises. An asset that is printed without limit (Dollar) is doomed to lose value against an asset with mathematically locked limits (21 Million Bitcoin). Gold: Compared to the existing stock of gold on earth, the amount of new gold mined annually is low (High S2F ratio). This makes it valuable. Bitcoin: Thanks to the halving mechanism, Bitcoin's inflation rate (new supply) is cut in half every 4 years. Bitcoin is the only asset whose supply is perfectly inelastic (supply cannot be increased even if the price rises). If the price of gold goes up 10x, miners dig more and increase the supply. If Bitcoin goes up 100x, the number of Bitcoins produced is fixed by the algorithm. Economically, this is "Absolute Scarcity." C. Gresham's Law and Thiers' Law Gresham's Law: "Bad money drives out good." People spend the depreciating currency (Dollar/Fiat) and hoard the valuable one (Gold/BTC). Thiers' Law: The inverse of Gresham's law; when a market collapses or during hyperinflation, "Good money drives out bad." People refuse to accept fiat currency and demand only "hard assets." Bitcoin's long-term rise represents the global economy's painful transition from a fiat money system (arbitrarily printed paper) to a mathematics-based monetary system. Conclusion and Summary Point number 3 on your chart is a critical decision moment from both a technical and macroeconomic standpoint. Technically: We are at the support of the long-term rising channel. In terms of risk/reward, this is a "buy" zone. Historically: It resembles the "calm before the storm" period of Gold in 1976. Economically: As long as global debt ratios and the necessity of money printing (Debasement) continue, Bitcoin gaining value against fiat currencies is not speculation, but a macroeconomic necessity. ------------------------------------------------------ 1. Technical Analysis of the Chart: "Rising Channel and Trend Theme"The TradingView chart you shared (Weekly/Logarithmic) clearly illustrates Bitcoin's long-term secular bull market cycle.Formation and Structure:An "Ascending Broadening Wedge" or an "Ascending Channel" structure is evident in the chart. This structure confirms that while volatility increases over time, the bottoms are consistently rising (Higher Lows).Upper Resistance Line (Arrows): The line connecting the 2017 peak, the 2021 double peak, and the 2024-2025 projection. This area acts as an "overbought" zone where profit-taking occurs every time it is tested.Lower Support Line (Numbers 1-2-3): This line is the backbone of the bull market.Point 1 (2023): Bear market reversal and trend initiation.Point 2 (Early 2024): Intermediate correction and confirmation. Point 3 (Current): The region where the price is currently located. The chart indicates that the price is touching the channel support (trendline) and a purely technical upward reaction (green arrow) is expected from here.Technical Deduction:In technical analysis literature, the trend is your friend. As long as the price holds at zone number 3, the technical target is the upper band of the channel, ranging between $140,000 - $180,000. However, if this support breaks, the formation is invalidated, and a deeper correction would be expected. 2. Historical Similarity: Gold (1970-1980) vs. BitcoinThere are striking academic and structural similarities between Bitcoin's current structure and Gold's movement during the "Great Inflation Era" of 1970-1980.The 1970s Gold Scenario:1971 Nixon Shock: The US ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold. This initiated the era of fiat (unbacked) currency.First Rally (1971-1974): Gold rose from $35 to $190 (~5x increase). The Great Correction (1974-1976): Gold lost nearly 50% of its value, falling back to $100. (Investors claimed the "Gold bubble had burst").Parabolic Rally (1976-1980): Gold went from $100 to $850, marking an ~8.5x increase.Comparison with Bitcoin:Regions 2 and 3 on your chart strongly resemble that painful "shakeout" period of Gold in 1976.At that time, Gold was being repriced as a "store of value" against high inflation.Bitcoin is currently in the institutional acceptance phase (ETFs) as "Digital Gold."If the 1970s fractal plays out; the current consolidation is the final major stop before the "Parabolic Mania" phase. 3. Economic and Academic Basis: Why "Must" Bitcoin Rise?This part of your question moves beyond technical analysis into Monetary Economics and Network Theory. Bitcoin gaining value against the dollar stems not just from speculation, but from mathematical laws.We can explain this using three academic concepts: A. The Denominator Effect and M2 Money SupplyThe price of an asset is measured as Asset / Currency (BTC/USD).If the denominator (USD) constantly expands due to monetary debasement, the price rises even if the numerator (BTC) remains constant.As Milton Friedman stated: "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."Central banks are forced to print money to manage global debt. An asset printed without limit (Dollar) is mathematically bound to lose value against a finite asset. B. The Bitcoin Power Law TheoryUnlike the Stock-to-Flow model (which relies on supply shocks), the Power Law model relies on Time and Network Growth.Scale Invariance: Much like the growth of cities, biological organisms, or planetary systems, Bitcoin's adoption follows a Power Law ($Price \propto Time^n$).The Predictable Corridor: When you plot Bitcoin’s price against time on a log-log scale, it forms a straight line. This indicates that price appreciation is not random but follows a physics-like trajectory of network adoption (Metcalfe’s Law).The "Fair Value" Floor: The Power Law mathematically establishes a rising "floor" price that Bitcoin has historically never breached for long. As time passes, the fair value must increase simply because the network is growing. According to Power Law regression bands, the price at Point 3 is likely hugging the lower bound (the "buy" zone), suggesting the asset is mathematically undervalued relative to its time-based adoption curve. C. Gresham's Law and Thiers' LawGresham's Law: "Bad money drives out good." People spend the depreciating currency (Fiat) and hoard the valuable one (Bitcoin).Thiers' Law: When a fiat system becomes unstable, "Good money drives out bad." People refuse to accept paper money and demand hard assets.Bitcoin's rise is the market's natural selection of a superior monetary technology. Conclusion and Summary Point number 3 on your chart is a critical decision moment: Technically: We are at the support of the long-term rising channel. Historically: It resembles the 1976 Gold "shakeout" before the parabolic run.Mathematically: According to the Power Law, the asset is likely resting on its adoption trendline floor, making the upward movement a function of time and network physics rather than just market sentiment. ALSO CHECK GOLD vs BITCOIN
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Cryptollica
1
BITCOIN This is the 4H Golden Cross that Bulls need at all costsBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a slow rebound following the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) test and is close to forming a 4H Golden Cross for the first time in more than 2 months. However a similar rebound attempt in December 2021, at the start of the BTC's previous Bear Cycle, after also dropping by -39.50% from the top (against today's -36.20%), failed to form a 4H Golden Cross the 'last minute' and the market resumed the bearish trend towards a new Low, completing a -50.34% total decline. So far the 1D RSI is similar to December 2021 but there is one key difference. Now Bitcoin has already tested its 1W MA100 (and rebounding) while on the previous Bear Cycle it only came close to it in February 2022. So will that favor and support the market for a little while and make that 4H Golden Cross or the 1D RSI and -36.20% identical drop fractal will push it lower? In the first case, the market will look for a 1D MA200 (black trend-line) test around $105k, which is what happened in March 2022, while in the second for a -47.30% total drop around $67000. One thing is for sure, if Bulls want to see some relief for some time, they have to defend that 4H Golden Cross. Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
6
Here’s How ETH Is Preparing for Its Next Expansion Move📊 MARKET STRUCTURE BREAKDOWN (H1) 1️⃣ Accumulation Phase - Price built a clear base (sideways box). - Liquidity swept → breakout → strong impulsive leg upward. - This is classic accumulation → expansion. 2️⃣ Second Accumulation Very similar structure: - Compression inside the box - Sharp liquidity flush - V-shaped recovery → bullish breakout This confirms institutional accumulation behavior. 3️⃣ Current Structure (Right Range) You marked SUPPORT ZONE & RESISTANCE ZONE. ETH is repeating the same playbook: - Long wick rejection into Support - Price oscillates inside the range (liquidity creation) - A breakout is likely to follow once enough orders are collected. This is the third accumulation cycle — textbook bullish continuation. 🎯 TRADING SIGNAL BUY SETUP Entry Zone: 3310 – 3350 (Support Zone dips / liquidity sweeps) Stop Loss: Below support box: 3250 Take Profit: Partial at 3450–3500 Full target at 3600+ (expected breakout continuation) Why this works: ETH has shown the exact pattern twice: Range → Liquidity Sweep → Expansion. Current price is building the third range — probability favors another upward expansion. 📈 SUMMARY: ETH is not random it is systematically accumulating before each major pump. As long as price holds the Support Zone and continues ranging, the bullish continuation scenario remains the highest-probability play.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal
Bitcoin Is Quietly Re-Accumulating...........📊 (1) MARKET STRUCTURE Bitcoin on H4 is forming a clean ascending channel, characterized by: -Higher Lows -Higher Highs -Consistent reactions from both channel boundaries -Smooth oscillation inside a rising structure This confirms a sustained bullish cycle of accumulation → expansion → retracement → continuation. The latest swing low touches the lower boundary of the channel and reacts sharply upward a typical sign of demand reactivation. 📉 (2) PRICE REACTION Recent candles present: -Strong rejection wicks at the channel’s demand zone -Reduced bearish momentum after each corrective leg -Higher swing bottoms forming in rhythm These behaviors indicate that sellers are being absorbed while buyers patiently step in. The projected yellow legs show the market’s tendency to respect the channel perfectly — a bullish pattern repeating multiple times. 🌐 (3) MACRO & FUNDAMENTALS SUPPORTING THE UPTREND The macro environment is aligning strongly in favor of Bitcoin: ✔ Fed Rate-Cut Expectations 2024–2025 Recent FOMC signals show a shift toward a softer monetary policy cycle. Lower interest rates historically weaken the USD and strengthen risk-on assets like BTC. ✔ ETF Inflows Remain Positive Institutional capital continues flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, showing long-term confidence. Accumulation from large funds typically stabilizes price and reduces downside risk. ✔ Global Liquidity Expansion Central banks across APAC and Europe lean toward easing. Liquidity expansion fuels upward momentum in major crypto assets. ✔ Halving Cycle Psychology Post-halving periods statistically favor medium-term uptrends as supply tightens. All macro signals point toward a favorable environment for a continuation move upward. ⏳ (4) HTF CONTEXT On the higher timeframe, the structure reflects: -Bitcoin has already printed a major bottom -Uptrend is intact even with local corrections -Market is transitioning from Accumulation → Markup phase Compression inside the rising channel usually leads to a strong breakout above 97,000–100,000. 📐 (5) EXPECTATION High-probability scenario: -BTC continues oscillating inside the ascending channel -Creates 2–3 more Higher Lows as drawn -Approaches the upper boundary at 96,500–97,000 -Breakout triggers momentum toward 100,000+ This behavior aligns with both structural patterns and macro tailwinds. 🎯 (6) TRADING INSIGHT The market is in the strongest type of bullish structure: a rising channel supported by macro liquidity, ETF demand, and post-halving momentum. The path of least resistance remains upward.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Matthew_TradeRFX
BTCUSDT.P - December 11, 2025Price has broken down from a prior intraday range and is now staging a modest rebound off support around 89,300–89,400, with the main downside risk defined by the lower stop area near 87,900–88,000. The short-term trend and momentum remain bearish while below the former breakdown zone and resistance toward 91,800–92,000, where the breakeven and profit target region is marked. A failure to reclaim that resistance and renewed selling from current levels would keep the focus on a retest of the 88,000 area, while a stronger recovery through 92,000 would suggest a deeper corrective bounce toward the prior swing highs.
Long
by miljedtothemoon