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$BTC.D down $BTC up : ALTS run.CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D down CRYPTOCAP:BTC up : ALTS run. Bitcoin dominance has broken down from its major uptrend and is currently in a retest. It's important to remember that dominance alone isn't an altseason indicator; the key is for dominance to decline alongside Bitcoin's rise. When this scenario plays out, a healthy altcoin season, as seen in the past, will resume. So why did Altseason start in 2017 when BTC was falling? 1. Capital Rotation from Bitcoin to Altcoins When Bitcoin approached $20,000 at the end of 2017, investors fell into the mindset that "BTC has risen too much, altcoins are cheaper." Those who realized their profits sold Bitcoin and moved to altcoins. So money didn't leave the market — it just changed direction within it. That's why altcoins soared even as BTC fell. 2. New investor influx and FOMO New investors entering crypto at that time turned to coins like Ethereum, Ripple, IOTA, ADA, and NEO, saying "Bitcoin is expensive." New money flowed directly into altcoins. So even as Bitcoin fell, the total market value continued to grow. 3. The historic collapse of dominance BTC dominance fell from 65% in December 2017 to 35% in January 2018. This was the sharpest "altcoin rotation" in history. In short, everyone was "dumping their BTC profits into altcoins." 4. The ICO boom Thousands of new projects were issuing ERC-20 tokens. Demand for Ethereum skyrocketed because everyone was participating in ICOs with ETH. This accelerated the shift from BTC to ETH and ignited the altcoin bull run. 5. Liquidity staying in the market The stablecoin ecosystem was not yet developed (USDT was limited). So when investors wanted to take profits, they were fleeing to altcoins instead of cashing out to fiat. This caused altcoins to shine.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by EtherNasyonaL
BTC DOMINANCE Update (4H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section As expected from the previous analysis, we anticipated a drop in this index, and the drop is currently in progress. One important point to note is the green zone, which is a strong support area. It is possible that the diametric/symmetrical structure we discussed in earlier analyses is still intact. In that case, wave F of this diametric pattern may complete in the green zone, and candles could then enter wave G | a bullish wave that may trigger a significant correction in altcoins. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by behdark
2
Is Altseason About to Begin?The market structure suggests we’re currently in wave C of the second corrective wave (2) — and it looks close to completion. A potential ending diagonal and bullish divergence on momentum indicators signal exhaustion among sellers. At the same time, Bitcoin dominance is testing a key resistance zone — a level where liquidity often starts rotating into altcoins. 📈 If the current low holds, we could be witnessing the early stages of wave 3 — the impulsive phase where altcoins usually outperform Bitcoin. 🟢 Base scenario: Correction ending → beginning of a new bullish phase 🔴 Alternative scenario: Breakdown of the current low → completion of a W–X–Y structure
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by CryptoPilot
2
DeCode | Crypto Macro OutlookTopic: Macro Crypto Outlook Context: BTC.D, DXY, Equities, CRYPTOCAP:BTC , News Article: Macro Crypto Outlook (Weekly Summary) Assets: BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P TVC:DXY CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D BINANCE:ETHBTC In this Weekly Macro Crypto Outlook , we break down the current state of the market and outline our forward-looking thesis for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoins. Volatility is high. Some believe the cycle has topped. Others expect one final leg before the market turns. At DeCode, we look past the noise and focus on data, structure, and context. Let’s decode the charts together and map out what’s ahead for the rest of 2025. Bitcoin Outlook Bitcoin is now attempting a breakout on the weekly chart, reclaiming the previous structural Higher High. To confirm this move, we need at least two consecutive candle closes above $119,655. Despite multiple rejections from the recent highs, the market has absorbed that bearish pressure and pushed higher; a strong signal of underlying bullish strength. If this breakout holds, the next targets lie at the +5 and +6 VWAP standard deviations, sitting around $137,000 and $151,500, which represents a potential +10% to +20% move from current levels. On the daily chart, we’re seeing six consecutive bullish closes, but short-term momentum is starting to fade, specially with a clear 3-Drive pattern that often lead the start of a pullback from Short Sellers. Entering at all-time highs is rarely optimal, neither profitable so pullbacks are opportunities, not threats. Key zones to watch on a retracement are: $118,880 $112,600 $107,450 While a deep correction is unlikely given current momentum, the deeper the pullback, the better the Risk/Reward for those waiting with patience and a plan. BItcoin Dominance & ETHBTC Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) turned bearish a few weeks ago, but we’re now seeing early signs of a potential pullback. From a weekly perspective, the trend remains to the downside as long as BTC.D stays below 62.62%. However, the recent failed auctions on both the Weekly and Daily timeframes suggest we could see a short-term bounce in dominance. A rising BTC.D means Bitcoin takes the spotlight and altcoins suffer disproportionately. Until we see clear weakness in BTC.D, it’s wise to keep altcoin exposure controlled. The 60.85% – 59.57% zone is the key area to watch. If BTC.D starts showing rejection or weakness there, it could open a high-conviction window to rotate into undervalued alts. ETHBTC remains the primary signal for altcoin strength and the true beginning of altseason. In our view, it hasn’t started yet. Recently, ETHBTC broke out of a multi-year bearish trend on the weekly chart; a significant structural shift. On the daily chart, ETHBTC is gaining strength from a key Volume Level Zone, while BTC.D creeps higher. This divergence is critical: If ETHBTC holds while BTC.D rises, we could be setting up for a massive ETHUSDT expansion, followed by strong moves in L1s and L2s. ETHBTC must hold above 0.03749 to maintain this momentum. As Bitcoin cools off, ETH could lead the next phase of the cycle. TradFi Correlation In traditional markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is often viewed as a risk-off indicator, when the dollar strengthens, risk assets like crypto, equities, and commodities tend to suffer. At the moment, the DXY is showing signs of strength on the weekly chart, forming a solid base after multiple rejections from its previous structural lower low. If this structure holds, we could see a move toward 100.54, a key level that aligns with a potential short-term pullback across crypto markets. A break and sustained move above that level would shift the daily DXY structure to bullish, signaling increased demand for dollar safety. Historically, this tends to put downward pressure on risk assets, as investors rotate out of speculative positions. This price action isn’t happening in a vacuum. Here’s what’s adding fuel to the fire: 📈 U.S. Treasury Yields are rising again as markets price in “higher for longer” rates. This strengthens the dollar and drains liquidity from risk assets. 📊 CPI and employment data are keeping the Fed cautious, which delays any meaningful pivot or rate cuts, even as parts of the economy show signs of slowing. 🧠 Global liquidity conditions are tightening, especially with ongoing geopolitical tensions and lower than expected growth in major economies like China and the EU. 🏦 Institutional capital is cautious; inflows into crypto ETFs have slowed, and hedge funds are increasing USD exposure as a hedge.
by BastDeCode
1
Bitcoin Dominance at Channel Resistance – Reversal Ahead?Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has reached the top of its ascending channel around 58.5%, which is acting as a strong resistance. 🔹 Main Scenario (More Likely): A rejection from this resistance zone could trigger a pullback toward 57.8% – 58%, giving some relief to altcoins in the short term. 🔹 Alternative Scenario: If BTC.D manages to break and hold above 58.5%, the next upside target would be around 59%. ⚖️ Conclusion: • Current levels are risky for further upside. • Probability of a correction is higher. • This setup may favor altcoin outperformance if dominance drops.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by CryptoPilot
BTC.D (Dominance at Critical Fibonacci Confluence) 2025 Weekly **Summary:** Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is testing a major Fibonacci confluence near the 66% level. This zone historically acts as a major pivot and may signal either a continued dominance rally or a potential reversal setting the stage for altseason. We use three layered Fibonacci retracements to outline dominant trend zones, key resistances, and projected targets. **Chart Context:** This chart uses **three distinct Fibonacci retracements** to map the historical and projected behavior of BTC dominance: 1. **Primary Fib** (100% to 0%): Captures the macro move from BTC.D \~100% down to its 0% level at \~0%, which aligns with the first altseason (2018–2019). 2. **Secondary Fib** (100% to 38.88%): Maps the first bearish wave to identify potential recovery levels. BTC.D retraced up to the 61.8% (\~73.68%) but failed to break further. 3. **Third or the Current Fib** (73.68% to 38.88%): Maps the latest bearish fall in BTC.D. As of now, BTC.D is hovering at the 78.6% retracement level of this move, indicating heavy resistance. **Key Technical Observations:** * **1st TP (Resistance):** 66% — Strong Fibonacci confluence zone: * Fib2 48.6% ≈ Fib3 78.6% * Major reversal zone historically * **2nd TP (Support):** 52.25% — Multi-Fib confluence: * Fib1 48.6%, Fib2 61.8%, Fib3 38.2% * **3rd TP (Ultimate Support):** 38.88% — Historical BTC.D bottom, aligned with the first altseason. * Intermediate Fibonacci confluences between 48%–60% serve as layered support during decline phases. **Indicators:** * No external indicators used; pure multi-frame Fibonacci confluence. * Price action structure and historical patterns highlight potential market rotation zones. **Fundamental Context:** The current phase of the market reflects increasing speculative activity in altcoins while Bitcoin consolidates. Historically, high BTC.D correlates with Bitcoin-led rallies, while a sharp drop often triggers altseason. * Growing inflows into ETH, SOL, and possible now XRP, and mid-cap alts suggest capital rotation. * If BTC.D faces rejection from 66%, the market could enter a new altseason phase. * Macro tailwinds (e.g., easing monetary policy, risk-on sentiment) support altcoin performance in the medium term. **Philosophical or Narrative View:** BTC.D acts as a barometer of market risk preference. As confidence expands beyond Bitcoin, money flows into altcoins—like tributaries branching off the main river. The rejection from major confluences signals this psychological shift, marking phases of creative decentralization. **Related Reference Charts:** * TOTAL3 Fibonacci Setup (Altcoin market excluding BTC & ETH): * TOTAL2 Correction Probabilities: **Bias & Strategy Implication:** * **Primary Bias:** Bearish rejection from 66% followed by correction to 52% and potentially 38.88%. * **Alternative Scenario:** Brief breach above 66% before reversal. * Traders may consider rotating into altcoin exposure if BTC.D confirms reversal at the confluence zone. **Time Horizon:** * Mid to Long Term (1–6 months outlook) * Weekly timeframe tracking **Notes & Disclaimers:** * This analysis is for educational purposes. Market conditions may evolve rapidly. * Use proper risk management when acting on dominance signals.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by BitonGroup
Altseason Index Proxy (TOTAL3 / BTC.D) Weekly TF Symbol & Timeframe: * **Symbol**: CRYPTOCAP\:TOTAL3 / CRYPTOCAP\:BTC.D * **Timeframe**: Weekly (1W), * **Purpose**: A clean, data-driven proxy for detecting altseason momentum Technical Structure: ✅ Key Support Zones * **13.47B (61.8% Fib)**: Critical golden zone; current price consolidation area * **12.45B (50.0% Fib)**: Lower bound of golden zone * **11.00B**: Historical support zone * **8.15B (0.0%)**: Absolute bottom of retracement range 🔹 Hidden Bullish Divergence * **MACD Histogram & Signal Lines** show hidden bullish divergence * Price action forming **higher lows** while MACD makes **lower lows** * Indicates trend continuation potential 🔢 Fibonacci Targets TP1: 16.8B (100.0%) TP2: 22.2B (161.8%) TP3: 30.7B (261.8%) 🔄 Expected Path * Potential short-term correction toward 12.4B followed by a breakout * Bullish continuation path sketched with progressive Fib targets 📈 Macro & Fundamental Confluence 📉 Liquidity and Monetary Easing * Global monetary policy is easing (e.g., Fed pivot expected mid-2025) * Increased liquidity historically precedes strong altcoin rallies BTC Dominance Decline * BTC.D rolling down from long-term highs * Signals beginning of capital rotation into altcoins 🚀 Emerging Narratives * Rise of L2s (e.g., Base, zkSync), AI tokens, real-world asset protocols * Fresh narratives tend to amplify altseason rotations 💼 Institutional Tailwinds * Spot ETH ETF approvals pave way for alt ETF flows * Regulatory clarity expected to reduce uncertainty in late 2025 Related Reference Charts: 🌐 TOTAL3 (Altcoin Market Cap Excluding BTC & ETH) 📊 BTC Dominance (BTC.D) These charts offer standalone confirmation of: Altcoin strength forming on TOTAL3 BTC dominance facing structural resistance Composite Altseason Thesis: 1. Liquidity injections + halving = BTC rally 2. BTC.D breakdown + TOTAL3 support = altcoin strength 3. Technical confirmations: hidden divergence, fib confluence 4. Narrative and regulatory catalysts = widespread rotation **Conclusion**: We are entering a prime zone for altseason acceleration. Price reclaim above 13.47B and continued BTC.D drop will validate bullish thesis. Monitor closely for breakouts past TP1 and momentum into TP2/TP3. 📌 Current status: - Price rebounding in the 12.45–13.47B Fibonacci zone (50–61.8%) - Hidden bullish divergence on MACD + ascending price structure - BTC.D has rolled off 65% resistance — suggesting capital rotation 📊 Altseason Thesis: 1. Post-halving BTC rally → profit dispersion into altcoins 2. Macro conditions (Fed pivot, record liquidity) enabling risk-on environment 3. Technical confirmation via index momentum and fib structure 4. Narrative tailwinds: Layer-2 adoption, AI-crypto, altcoin ETF catalysts 📈 Targets: - TP1 @ 16.8B (100% Fib) - TP2 @ 22.2B (161.8% Fib) - TP3 @ 30.7B (261.8% Fib) 🟢 Key support: 12.45–13.47B zone; breakout + BTC.D collapse = altseason trigger.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by BitonGroup
GOOD NEWS FOR #ALTS MARKETGood News for #Alts Market! 💥 Take a look at the precision on my last #BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) outlook 👇 🔹 Dominance just hit my 57% key support – exactly as predicted! 🔥 🔹 Called the local top around 65% weeks ago – accuracy on point! What’s next? 📊 If #Bitcoin dominance consolidates above the important 56-57% zone, we could see major liquidities flow into many #alts , especially those building bullish structures on higher timeframes (think: [ NASDAQ:OP , $LQTY , NYSE:SEI , etc…]). As long as BTC holds its ground without a sharp correction, overall market confidence remains solid and alts have room to outperform! 📈 Another #Alts rally could ignite any day now, on large/Medium Mcap assets, especially if CRYPTOCAP:BTC stays resilient and holds the $110,000–$107,000 supports📈 👉 Stay sharp; the next rotation could be huge. Which alts are you eyeing the most? Drop your picks below! 👇
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by Cryptojobs
1
Others.d 4H Analysis - key Triggers Ahead👋🏻 Hey everyone! How’s it going? Hope you’re all doing well. ❄️ Welcome to Crypto Winter. ⏰ Today, we’ll be analyzing Others.d and exploring its potential opportunities. 👀 On the 4H timeframe, looking at the Others.D index, we can see that this index moves inversely to Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) and Tether dominance (USDT.D). It reflects the capital flow into altcoins (excluding BTC and ETH). Currently, it has been consolidating inside a tight box structure. After breaking above the seller’s trigger zone — the top of the box — at 7.87%, it moved upward but got rejected at the 8.3% resistance. 💡 After the rejection, it formed a higher low compared to the previous one, showing respect from buyers. Momentum then picked up quickly, pushing the price back toward the 8.3% resistance with fewer green candles but stronger momentum. We are now retesting this resistance, and a confirmed breakout here could serve as a first small confirmation for a potential altcoin bull run. 🧮 Looking at the RSI oscillator, one critical level stands out: the 70 overbought zone. Considering the recent positive economic data, which fueled capital inflows into equities, this level gains even more weight. It may provide further support for Others.D cap to push higher. 🕯 After breaking out of the box, candle size and volume looked normal, but at the formation of the higher low, buyers strongly respected that level — suddenly the candle size increased sharply, showing FOMO from buyers and fresh capital entering risk assets. 🧠 We now have multiple confirmations for a possible breakout and stabilization above this resistance. If it happens, several altcoins with strong setups should be on the watchlist for entries. A clean breakout could also provide the green light to open long-term futures positions on altcoins, as a stronger rally may follow. ❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS.DLong
by CryptosWinter
Bitcoin Dominance at Channel Resistance –Will Altcoins Take Off?BTC Dominance has been moving inside a clear descending channel, and right now, price is testing the upper boundary (channel resistance). Here’s what the price action is telling us: 🔸 If dominance rejects this level and fails to break out, we could see a pullback toward the lower channel, which usually signals money rotating into altcoins → potential altseason setup. 🔸 But if BTC.D manages to break and close above the channel, it may confirm a shift in capital back into Bitcoin, putting pressure on altcoins. 📍 This zone is a make-or-break level, and the reaction here could dictate the short-term market structure for the entire crypto market.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by CryptoPilot
2
Bitcoin Dominance Continue Dropping, Dec. 2024 Support HoldsThe uptrend ended the 23-June 2025 week. On this date, the index at hand started to decline; Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) turned bearish. Notice how many altcoins bottomed in April, the majority, and yet BTC.D did not peak until June. A delayed effect. The downtrend is now on and undeniable; the altcoins bull market is now on and undeniable. The downtrend is unraveling but far from being done. Bearish momentum is building up but we have not seen the true potential of the altcoins market. As Bitcoin Dominance moves down, the altcoins market moves up. In July BTC.D took a pause, two green weeks. It closed green and the third week we saw the resumption of the bearish move and trend. In August, late August, now, BTC.D is taking another pause, about to close one week green. This should not be taken as the end of the altcoins bull market, not at all. The market is only becoming stronger to produce even higher, bigger and better growth. The low from November-December 2024 (54.56%) is still intact as support. Cryptocurrency market prices are going much higher this time around; the cycle will be much longer, this support is sure to break based on TA, with the index moving much lower. Back in late 2024 the bullish wave for the altcoins lasted exactly 1 month. After this major rise, we had a decline lasting many months. Things are different now. BTC.D has been going down for weeks, 10 weeks but the index is still trading pretty high and that's my main point. There is still plenty of room for this index to drop. Sell when prices are up. Bearish potential develops after a major uptrend; out of a top. This top is present here and from here down-we go. The index again, of course; Crypto is going up. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by MasterAnanda
1
Bitcoin Dominance Continues To Drop (Bullish Crypto)While Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) continues to drop, the altcoins continue to consolidate, to recover. Not all of them are up and to be honest, most of them are down, and this is good news. Even after all this time and all we've seen and waited, still, there are many opportunities available; meaning, it is still early in this bull market bullish cycle and wave. There is still time to buy at low prices. But... There is a "but." Many pairs are no longer great to buy. Some examples are the obvious ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT and those trading high up. Don't get me wrong, these pairs can be traded all of the time, over and over, again and again, but, the best prices possible are no more and this will increase the complexity of our new entries and how much money we can make. Risk also becomes higher. No worries though, when one door closes, seven hundred new doors open. Opportunities are endless in this market. Bitcoin Dominance Index bearish bias remains intact, in fact, it continues to strengthen. This means that Bitcoin will continue to grow and the altcoins as well. Truly, this is all we need. We already have more than enough signals, but one more can't hurt. Bring the bullish storm. Crypto will change your life for the better, if not now, in the future. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by MasterAnanda
1
Bullish Now, Bitcoin & The Altcoins · 2025 Bull Market ContinuesThe altcoins market cannot be bearish at the same time that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is bearish. When Bitcoin Dominance is bearish the altcoins market is bullish. When the altcoins market is bullish Bitcoin is already growing or set to grow. Here we have the daily chart for Bitcoin Dominance. Here we have a full break of support. The bearish bias only continues to strengthen and is supported by really high volume. As Bitcoin Dominance moves lower, the altcoins move higher. You can see a huge rounded top pattern as well as a very strong decline started late June. Notice that the strongest decline before this June was November 2024. November 2024 was when the entire altcoins market produced a strong advance. This was the first signal and also the bottom for many altcoins (ALTS vs BTC pairs). Things are changing. The dynamics we are about to experience between Bitcoin and the altcoins market is something not seen ever before. The market evolved for years, is evolving and continues to evolve and this evolution will be reflected in market price action and the charts. The charts will be different and how the altcoins behave in relation to Bitcoin and each other. The market will continue to become harder to read, predict and understand. It is just natural. We human becomes more mentally complex as we become older, it is the same system. A bearish bias on this index confirms the continuation of the bullish wave for the altcoins. This is all you need to know. You need to know that Bitcoin and the altcoins market will continue to grow. Not months into the future, not years into the future, short-term. We are going up now. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DShort
by MasterAnanda
24
Bitcoin Dominance Elliott Wave Update: Wave ⑤ Near CompletionBTC Dominance has been unfolding in a clear 5-wave impulsive decline. Right now, price action is moving within the last leg — wave ⑤ — and has reached the 57.9% zone, which aligns with multiple confluences: • ✅ 0.618 Fibonacci extension of wave (3) • ✅ Bottom of the descending channel • ✅ Strong psychological & structural support zone This confluence suggests that wave ⑤ could be approaching its final stage of completion. 📌 Implication for Altcoins: A local bottom in BTC dominance often translates into increased selling pressure on altcoins, as money flows back toward Bitcoin. 🎯 Key Levels to Watch: • 57.9% → potential termination zone for wave ⑤ • 56.6% → full 1.0 extension of wave (3), deeper bearish scenario ⚠️ Invalidation: If dominance breaks convincingly below 56.6%, the bearish extension continues, giving altcoins more room to breathe. 👉 For now, caution is advised on altcoins as BTC dominance nears completion of wave ⑤. Expect volatility and potential liquidity grabs.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by CryptoPilot