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Bitcoin Halts Declines Around the $111,000 ZoneThe last few trading sessions have been particularly challenging for Bitcoin’s bullish momentum in the short term, mainly because two sessions ago the price dropped by more than 6%. This pullback was driven by profit-taking, following Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole, which had sparked a brief surge in confidence toward the end of last week. However, the current scenario is different: after this sharp drop, a highly neutral sentiment has emerged on the chart, as the market continues to assess how a lower interest rate environment could impact Bitcoin demand in the coming weeks. For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in neutral territory, standing at 43 points, right on the threshold where a new “fear” phase could start to develop in the sentiment indicator. As long as uncertainty persists in the short term, it is likely that neutrality will continue to dominate movements in the sessions ahead. A Significant Bearish Move Emerges Bitcoin’s price had managed to sustain an uptrend from early April until mid-August. However, at that point a relevant bearish bias began to surface, consistently breaking through the prevailing uptrend line and putting at risk the bullish momentum that had supported the chart. Now, the predominance of selling pressure in the short term raises the risk of triggering a move that could give way to a more consistent downtrend in the coming sessions. RSI: the RSI line has slipped slightly below the neutral 50 level, reflecting that selling momentum has started to dominate in the short term. If this pattern persists, bearish pressure could intensify in the upcoming sessions. MACD: the MACD histogram also shows a bearish bias, as it remains below the 0 line. This indicates that the average of recent moving averages has shifted into negative territory, reinforcing the outlook for the continuation of the current correction. Key Levels to Watch: $122,000 – Historical High Zone: the main barrier for bullish moves. A sustained return to this level could reactivate the uptrend line that has recently been broken. $113,000 – Immediate Resistance: corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and acts as the nearest barrier in the short term. A breakout above this level would end the current bearish bias and could pave the way for a more neutral scenario. $106,000 – Definitive Support: aligns with the 100-period moving average. A break below this level would imply a deeper change in market structure, opening the door to a more solid bearish trend in the short term. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:BTCUSD
by FOREX.com
Bitcoin - The magical $1.000.000 level!🚀Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) is not done yet: 🔎Analysis summary: Over the course of the past couple of months, we have been witnessing a bullish continuation on Bitcoin. After the all time high breakout, there is a high chance that this bullrun will continue and Bitcoin might even retest the resistance trendline at seven digits in the near future. 📝Levels to watch: $1.000.000 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
26
Bitcoin possible correction?📈 Hey Traders! Here’s a fresh outlook from my trading desk. If you’ve been following me for a while, you already know my approach: 🧩 I trade Supply & Demand zones using Heikin Ashi chart on the 4H timeframe. 🧠 I keep it mechanical and clean — no messy charts, no guessing games. ❌ No trendlines, no fixed sessions, no patterns, no indicator overload. ❌ No overanalyzing market structure or imbalances. ❌ No scalping, and no need to be glued to the screen. ✅ I trade exclusively with limit orders, so it’s more of a set-and-forget style. ✅ This means more freedom, less screen time, and a focus on quality setups. ✅ Just a simplified, structured plan and a calm mindset. 💬 Let’s Talk: 💡Do you trade supply & demand too ? 💡What’s your go-to timeframe ? 💡Ever tried Heikin Ashi ? 📩 Got questions about my strategy or setup? Drop them below — ask me anything, I’m here to share. Let’s grow together and keep it simple. 👊
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Matej_trader
Can the Thief Rob BTC Pullback Before the Police Arrive?🚨 BTC/USD 💰 Bitcoin Breakout Heist Plan – Robbers in Action 🚀 🚨 Asset: BTC/USD “Bitcoin vs U.S. Dollar” — Crypto King Market 📊 Plan: BULLISH BREAKOUT RAID 🎯 Target: 123,000.00 🎯 — Police Barricade Resistance + Overbought Trap Zone 🔒 Entry: ANY PRICE LEVEL — Thief avg pullback entry at 115,000.00 🛑 Stop Loss: 113,000.00 — Below the Laser Tripwire 🎩 Thief Entry Blueprint 🕵️‍♂️ The vault’s trembling. The thief’s not waiting. Layered limit orders are being deployed like smoke bombs — we strike anywhere, anytime, with stealthy precision. No begging for dip, we rob it raw. 💣🧨 📉 Risk Protocol Setup 🛡️ SL: Under local support – cut fast if alarms trigger. Risk light, rob heavy. Use tight stops or trailing guards to escape with the loot. 📈 Why Rob Long? Bullish momentum building like a pressure cooker 💥 Resistance zones turning into trapdoors for late bears 🐻 Liquidity pools above — ripe for raid Sentiment flips, on-chain signals, and macro tailwinds align ⚡ 📌 Robbery Reminders: NO SHORTING — This is a one-way heist 🚷 Avoid news-time chaos ⛔ Use multiple entries (layer style) and escape plans. Overbought ≠ exit — it’s the bait for the next raid 🧠 💖 LIKE = SUPPORT THE CREW Every like boosts the Thief Trader movement — more heat, more setups, more wins. Smash Boost. Share the Heist. Stay Robbing. 🐱‍👤📈🔥 🔔 Stay tuned. Next breakout blueprint dropping soon.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDLong
by The-Thief
Bitcoin Market Loot Plan Activated — Watch It Climb!🔥🚨 THIEF TRADER’S ULTIMATE BTC/USD HEIST PLAN! 🚨🔥 Asset: BTC/USD "Bitcoin vs U.S. Dollar" – Crypto Market Robbery in Progress! Plan: BULLISH HEIST – LAYERED ENTRY MASTERMINDED! 🎯 THIEF’S ENTRY STRATEGY (LAYERED LIMIT ORDERS): "The vault is unlocked! Swipe the loot at ANY PRICE! But for elite thieves, use LAYERED LIMITS like a PRO!" Buy Limits (Example): 🔹 122,000.00 (First Dip Grab!) 🔹 120,500.00 (Second Layer – More Stealth!) 🔹 121,500.00 (Third Strike – Smooth Criminal!) 🔸 121,000.00 (Final Trap – Max Loot!) 👉 Adjust layers based on YOUR risk appetite! More layers = More escape routes! 🛑 THIEF STOP LOSS (OG STYLE): "SL? Yeah, we have one… but REAL THIEVES adjust on the fly!" 🔪 SL @ 117,500.00 (If Bitcoin snitches, CUT & RUN!) ⚠️ Pro Tip: Tighten SL if market flips bearish! Don’t get caught! 💰 TARGET: ESCAPE BEFORE THE COPS ARRIVE! 🚔 🎯 130,000.00 (Final Heist Zone – Police Barricade!) 🏃‍♂️ 129,000.00 (Early Exit? Smart Thieves Take Profit & DISAPPEAR!) ⚡ THIEF TRADER’S GOLDEN RULES: ✔ SCALPERS: Only LONG side! Quick in, Quick out! ✔ SWING THIEVES: Hold & Trailing SL for MAX LOOT! ✔ RISK? Your wallet, Your rules! Don’t blame the plan! 📢 THIEF ALERT! NEWS = VOLATILITY TRAP! 🚨 Avoid new trades during high-impact news! 🚨 Lock profits with TRAILING SL! 💥 BOOST THIS HEIST PLAN! (More boosts = More stolen money!💰) 🔥 LIKE, SHARE, & FOLLOW FOR NEXT HEIST! Stay stealthy, thieves! 🏴‍☠️🚀 🚀 SEE YOU AT THE NEXT CRYPTO ROBBERY! 🚀 #ThiefTrader #BitcoinHeist #LayeredEntries #CryptoGang
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDLong
by The-Thief
Declining 2-Year US Treasury Yields Could Fuel Bitcoin’s BullishThe follow chart is a comparison between Bitcoin CRYPTOCAP:BTC Daily Chart and the US 2 years Treasury Bonds TVC:US02Y . The graphic shows the 2-year US Treasury yield declining from 3.7684% to 3.7308% on August 12, 2025, following a steep drop after CPI inflation in July stabilized at 2.7%. This underscores market expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, driving up demand for bonds as a safe haven asset. The potential on Short-Term Impact on the Bitcoin Market: Positive: Falling rates and expectations for rate cuts weaken the US dollar, boosting capital flows into riskier assets such as Bitcoin. BTC may gain in the immediate term, testing the $130,000 resistance level, aided by new liquidity from stablecoins. Risk: While falling yields can support Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, they may also signal recession fears. If investors interpret the decline as a warning of economic slowdown, BTC could face selling pressure—potentially dropping to $111,939. Volatility remains elevated, especially after the recent liquidation of leveraged long positions. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data for confirmation of market direction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by POLARMARKET
Bitcoin Soars Past $122K, But a "Digital Fort Knox" Threat LoomsThe cryptocurrency market is in the throes of a historic rally, a tidal wave of capital and confidence that has propelled Bitcoin beyond the formidable $122,000 mark. Now trading within 1% of its all-time high, the world’s premier digital asset is riding a powerful current shaped by two monumental events: a surprisingly favorable executive order from the White House and a relentless cascade of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. This surge has ignited euphoria across the financial world, with even the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, touching highs not seen since its 2021 peak. Yet, beneath the glittering surface of this bull run, a profound and unsettling question is taking shape. As institutional giants and corporate treasuries embrace Bitcoin, some of its most astute observers are sounding an alarm. They warn that this corporate adoption boom is creating a path that looks eerily similar to the one gold traveled in the 20th century—a path that ended with its effective nationalization and centralization in the vaults of Fort Knox. This growing concern posits that Bitcoin’s greatest triumph, its integration into the mainstream financial system, could become its ultimate vulnerability, presenting a new and potent centralization threat that challenges the asset's very soul. The market is now caught between the thrill of unprecedented price discovery and the chilling possibility that it is witnessing the rise of a digital Fort Knox. The Anatomy of a Rally: A Perfect Bullish Storm The recent price explosion was not a random event but the result of a powerful confluence of factors that have systematically validated Bitcoin’s role in the global financial landscape. The market sentiment has been overwhelmingly positive, driven by a one-two punch of regulatory encouragement and undeniable institutional demand. First, a landmark executive order from the White House sent a clear signal that the United States is moving towards a framework of integration rather than opposition for digital assets. The order, widely seen as pro-crypto, has initiated a formal exploration of how to safely incorporate cryptocurrencies into the bedrock of American wealth: 401(k) retirement plans. For years, regulatory uncertainty has been the single greatest barrier holding back a true institutional deluge. This directive acts as a powerful de-risking event, providing a level of clarity and legitimacy that large-scale investors have been desperately seeking. The potential to unlock even a small fraction of the trillions of dollars held in retirement accounts has sent a jolt of optimism through the market, assuring corporations and funds that they are investing in an asset class with a government-acknowledged future. Second, while the executive order provided the strategic tailwind, the tactical buying pressure has come directly from spot Bitcoin ETFs. These regulated financial products, which allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through a traditional brokerage account, have been an unprecedented success. In a stunning display of demand over the last week, these funds have absorbed hundreds of millions of dollars in net inflows on consecutive days. To issue new shares, these ETFs must purchase the underlying Bitcoin from the open market, creating a massive and constant source of demand. This dynamic acts like a supply shock; as billions of dollars from mainstream investors flow through ETFs to chase a finite number of available coins, the price is algorithmically forced upward. The flow of funds into these products has become one of the most closely watched metrics, serving as a real-time indicator of institutional appetite and a direct driver of price action. The Ghost of Gold: A Historical Warning for a Digital Age Even as investors celebrate this new era of institutional acceptance, a chilling historical parallel offers a cautionary tale. The concern, articulated by prominent on-chain analysts, is that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is mirroring the centralization of gold that occurred in the United States, a process that ultimately subjected the precious metal to complete state control. To grasp the gravity of this comparison, one must look back to President Franklin D. Roosevelt's Executive Order 6102, signed in 1933. Amidst the Great Depression, the order made it illegal for U.S. citizens to privately hold significant amounts of gold coins or bullion, compelling them to turn over their holdings to the Federal Reserve. The stated goal was to stabilize the economy, but the result was the mass transfer of a decentralized monetary asset from the hands of the people into the centralized vaults of the U.S. government. The nation's gold was consolidated, most famously at Fort Knox, giving the state absolute control over the physical supply. Decades later, in 1971, President Richard Nixon delivered the final blow. With the "Nixon Shock," he unilaterally severed the U.S. dollar's convertibility to gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system that had anchored global finance. Having already secured control of the physical asset, the government was then free to change the rules of the system it underpinned. The argument today is that Bitcoin could face a similar, albeit modern, fate. A 21st-century "nationalization" would not involve government agents seizing hardware wallets. It would be a far more sophisticated and systemic takeover, executed through the very financial instruments and institutions that are currently being praised for driving the bull market. The end result could be a scenario where a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply, while technically on a decentralized network, is effectively controlled by a handful of state-sanctioned entities. This digital "Fort Knox" could be constructed through several vectors. The majority of Bitcoin purchased by ETFs and large corporations is not held in self-custody. Instead, it is entrusted to a small number of large, regulated custodians. These firms represent centralized points of control. A government could easily exert legal and regulatory pressure on these few custodians, compelling them to freeze, block, or even seize the assets they manage on behalf of millions of investors. The ETFs themselves are a primary vehicle for this potential centralization. By concentrating hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin under the management of a few powerful financial firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, they make the asset supply vastly easier to regulate and control. It is far more efficient for a state to influence a handful of ETF issuers than to police millions of individual Bitcoin holders around the world. Finally, the public companies that have famously added Bitcoin to their balance sheets are also part of this equation. As regulated entities, they must comply with government mandates. A state could enact policies that influence or dictate how these systemically important corporate treasuries are managed, effectively bringing them under state influence without ever formally seizing the assets. Bitcoin’s Inherent Defense: Can Decentralization Hold the Line? While the historical parallel to gold is compelling and sobering, it is not a perfect one. Bitcoin possesses unique technological attributes that provide a powerful defense against the kind of centralization that befell gold. The most fundamental defense is the power of self-custody. Unlike gold, which is a physical object that is cumbersome to store and move securely, Bitcoin is pure information. An individual or entity that controls their own private keys holds a sovereign asset that is incredibly difficult to confiscate without their cooperation. This ability to "be your own bank" remains a powerful counter-force to the trend of custodial reliance. Furthermore, the Bitcoin network is a globally distributed system. Miners, nodes, developers, and users are spread across dozens of countries, operating under a multitude of legal jurisdictions. No single government can unilaterally control the network or dictate its rules. An attempt by one major nation to implement draconian controls would likely trigger a mass exodus of capital and talent to more favorable jurisdictions, a powerful economic disincentive against overreach. The current global competition among nations to become "crypto hubs" demonstrates that governments are aware of this dynamic and are incentivized to create attractive, rather than punitive, regulatory environments. This tension may ultimately lead to the bifurcation of the Bitcoin market. One tier could consist of the regulated, "paper" Bitcoin—held in ETFs and by public corporations, fully compliant, but subject to the rules and potential control of the traditional financial system. The other tier would be the sovereign, "physical" Bitcoin—held in self-custody by those who prioritize censorship resistance and decentralization above all else. A Future Forged in Conflict As Bitcoin knocks on the door of a new all-time high, the market is caught in a powerful paradox. The institutional adoption that has legitimized Bitcoin and driven its price to stratospheric levels is the very same force that introduces a systemic risk to its core principles. The celebration of the current rally is, in essence, a celebration of the construction of the very infrastructure that could be used to co-opt it. The journey to $122,000 was paved with institutional capital and regulatory acceptance. The journey forward will be defined by a fundamental conflict: the battle between mainstream financial integration and the preservation of the decentralized ethos that made Bitcoin a revolutionary technology. The future of the world's most important digital asset will be forged in the crucible of this tension, determining whether it remains a truly sovereign asset for the people or becomes another tool in the arsenal of the centralized systems it was designed to disrupt.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
2
Bitcoin - The cycles are playing out!⚔️Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) just repeats another cycle: 🔎Analysis summary: Following all of the previous all time high breakouts, Bitcoin will now further extend the rally. After some simple calculation, we can see that Bitcoin will rally another +50% in order to reach the overall price target. However there will be volatility along the way so make sure to remain calm. 📝Levels to watch: $200.000 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
22
BITCOIN has broken Free - The Next cycle type begins- WHY ? I have been talking about the Blue Arc of resistance for a while now. The ARC that has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin began its true rise in Value back in 2011. I am not going to get to technical right now as I have had only 1 coffee..lol.. Lets begin I have 3 charts with this Arc on , all slightly different so as to allow for small errors in plotting or calculation. ALL charts now show PA Above the Arc. Why is this so important ? As previously explained, that Blue Arc is a part of a Calculated Fibonacci Spiral. Calculated from Each ATH to the next and using the difference as a part of that calculation, I was able to pinpoint the centre of this Arc. And here is the Full picture. What I am finding a little interesting is how that centre is on MARCH 2020 - That Sudden and worrying COVID CRASH ! But that is a subject for another time. The Two important things to take of here is how PA began rising on this spiral as soon as PA entered it ( Left ) and unless we broke out of it now, PA would have been dragged back down by December. The time spent inside this spiral are the cumulative years of Bitcoin. It is also very interesting how the 3 "Cycles " we have had in this channel. have ended perfectly at that intersection of the Blue Arc and the underlying line of support, that PA has not dropped below since we entered the channel back in 2012 To me, that is more than just a coincidence. And if we look at a smaller time frame, we can see that PA has broken over this Arc, with strength. The Daily chart above does show us that we do still have challenges ahead. For instance, there is that line of local resistance just above, that could , under the right circumstances, push PA back down with vengeance should the Bears take over. But I do not think that will happen yet but it would be nice if we could climb over that and use it as support. We have done on 2 previous occasions this cycle but each time, we got pushed back under. 3rd time lucky ? The 4 hour chart gives hope. Here we can see how that Blue Arc was used as support but once it failed, the Bulls were Quick to get back over. To me, this shows us that the Bulls have every intention of keeping Bitcoin High and above that Blue Arc. But the longer we wait to get over that local line of resistance above, and use as support, the further away it Gets. Currently, the Target to get over that lline is around 140K Near Term projections of PA, in a bullish run, are around 160K -> 180K This would give PA that underlying line of support. So, we wait to see how this plays out but THE MOST IMPORTANT THING ? We Must remain above that line, the Blue Arc....that currently sits around 115 -118K The Next Few weeks are VITAL and I remind you..August has nearly twice as many RED monthly closes as Green..Unless it is in a Bull run....;-) The Daily RSI has room to move still but is High The Weekly RSI is Similar in hieght, with room to move. So, We could be in a good position to start that New Cycle type, out of the Spiral that Created Bitcoin as we now know it. The 4 year Flow could change as mass adoption takes pace and People simply do not Buy / Sell as we used to do. But it is impossible to really know whats coming. We can only watch and learn. We may well end up having the 4 year cycles again. After all, that gave us superb profit making opportunities. Or will Bitcoin become the Store of Value, the Digital Gold ? Time will tell. Have a good week and stay safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
1
Gold Retraces to OTE and Breaks ResistanceEyes on Swing Highs!Gold Market Update The gold market declined from its previous bullish leg and retraced below the 50% level, reaching into the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone. It also tapped into a Bullish Price Rejection (BPR) area. Following that, price broke above the trendline resistance. Currently, it is advisable to wait for a potential retest of the breakout level. If confirmed, the market could continue its upward movement toward the previous swing highs. Do Your Own Research (DYOR)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradeCraft_FX
"Bitcoin’s Big Heist – Are You In or Out?"🚨 BTC/USDT HEIST MISSION – SWIPE THE BULL RUN BEFORE THE BEARS WAKE UP 💰💣 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Money Makers & Robbers, assemble! 🤑💰✈️💸 Here’s your decoded BTC/USDT “Bitcoin vs Tether” Crypto Market Heist Plan, fully loaded with Thief Trading Style 🔥 TA + FA combo. We’re prepping for a bullish breakout loot – eyes on the vault, ignore the noise. 🎯 PLAN OF ATTACK: 🎯 ENTRY (BUY ZONE): 💥 “The vault’s open—time to sweep!” DCA/Layer your buy limit orders near the 15–30 min swing lows/highs for sniper pullback entries. Use multi-entry method to stack positions (layering / DCA) as per your ammo (capital 💵). 🛑 STOP LOSS: Set SL at the nearest swing low wick (4H TF) — around 115000.00, adjust based on your risk/load. SL = insurance. Not optional. 🏁 TARGET: Lock sights on 125000.00 🎉 Or… vanish with profits before the bear cops arrive. 🔎 MARKET BACKDROP & ANALYSIS: 📈 BTC/USDT currently signals bullish vibes on the swing/day horizon — fueled by: Macro Fuel & Fundamentals Sentiment Radar COT Reports On-Chain Pulse Intermarket Clues 🚀 Connect the dots. The smart money's already prepping a breakout move. 🧲 Scalpers Note: Stick to the long side only. No shorting the beast — unless you’re made of diamonds. Secure your bag with trailing SLs. ⚠️ NEWS TRIGGER ZONE – TRADE WITH TACT: 📢 Upcoming high-volatility news events can spike charts. Avoid new entries during releases and guard open trades with trailing SLs. Protect the loot. Always. 💖 SUPPORT THE HEIST GANG: BOOST IT! Smash that ❤️ to boost our thief squad’s momentum! Every click powers this underground mission – making money with style, one pip at a time. 🎯💣💵 🚀 See you in the next heist drop. Until then – Stay stealthy. Stay profitable. Stay legendary. 🐱‍👤💸🏆
Long
by The-Thief
Bitcoin - The cycle is just starting!⚔️Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) just created new highs: 🔎Analysis summary: Bitcoin is currently - especially with the new all time high breakout - just perfectly following previous cycle behavior. Since there is no real resistance above current price, apart from psychological levels, I do expect a substantial rally back to the upper channel resistance trendline. 📝Levels to watch: $300.000 🙏🏻#LONGTERMVISION Philip - Swing Trader
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
27
Navigating BTC Tremors on the Path to a Million Dollar New Bitcoin Paradigm: Navigating Short-Term Tremors on the Deliberate Path to a Million-Dollar Valuation The Bitcoin market is currently a paradox, a theater of conflicting signals where short-term jitters coexist with audacious, long-term prophecies. On one hand, the price experiences sharp, gut-wrenching drops, with a recent dip to $118,000 attributed to institutional selling, sending waves of anxiety through the retail sector. On the other, the world’s most formidable financial institutions are issuing forecasts that seem to border on the fantastical, with one Wall Street banking giant boldly predicting a $200,000 Bitcoin by the end of December. This schizophrenic market sentiment is the new normal for an asset in the midst of a profound transformation. Bitcoin is no longer the fringe digital curiosity of a decade ago; it is a maturing global asset class being integrated into the very heart of the traditional financial system. This integration brings with it immense capital, but also new complexities and a different rhythm of growth. The story of Bitcoin today is one of navigating immediate volatility, fueled by market maker games and institutional repositioning, while keeping an eye on a future where corporate adoption, macroeconomic shifts, and a new, more deliberate growth pattern could methodically pave the way to a once-unthinkable $1,000,000 valuation. The current landscape is a confluence of powerful, often opposing, forces. While institutional capital is the primary engine of this bull cycle, it is also a source of calculated selling pressure. At the same time, a steady drumbeat of corporate adoption continues, with companies like the UK-based The Smarter Web Company quietly adding hundreds of Bitcoin to their balance sheets. This is happening against a backdrop of favorable macroeconomic tailwinds, including what some are calling the "biggest trade deal ever" sealed by the United States, an event that subtly reinforces Bitcoin's role as a neutral, global store of value. And just when the narrative seems set, a new player like the mysterious "WeWake" enters the stage with a "big launch" that stuns investors, hinting at a new frontier of consumer-level adoption that could dwarf previous catalysts. This intricate dance between short-term technicals and long-term fundamentals defines Bitcoin's current journey—a journey that is less about the parabolic explosions of the past and more about a calculated, powerful ascent. The Immediate Battleground: Volatility, Support, and the $123,000 Squeeze To understand Bitcoin's path to six figures and beyond, one must first dissect the trench warfare happening at current price levels. The recent plunge to $118,000 served as a stark reminder that the road up is paved with volatility. While alarming, this dip was not seen as a catastrophic failure by seasoned analysts, but rather as a textbook example of institutional mechanics at play. Unlike retail investors who may hold with unwavering conviction, institutional desks are constantly managing risk, rebalancing portfolios, and taking profits to meet quarterly targets. The selling that triggered the drop was likely not a sign of lost faith, but a strategic repositioning, shaking out over-leveraged positions and creating liquidity for larger players to re-enter at more favorable prices. This is precisely where the concept of the "ideal long zone" comes into play. For bullish traders and institutions, these orchestrated dips are not a crisis but an opportunity. An "ideal long zone" is a price range where multiple technical support indicators converge, creating a high-probability area for a price reversal. This zone might be defined by a combination of a key moving average (like the 50-day or 200-day), a significant Fibonacci retracement level drawn from a previous major low to a high, and a historical price range where the asset has previously found strong buying support. The fact that bulls were able to gain traction in this zone following the $118,000 dip indicates that this calculated selling was met with equally calculated buying. The market is currently engaged in a reversal campaign with an initial, modest target of reclaiming the $121,000 level, a crucial psychological pivot point. However, a far more explosive scenario is brewing just beneath the surface: the potential for a massive short squeeze. Market makers, the large entities that provide liquidity to exchanges, are reportedly setting a "trap" for traders betting against Bitcoin. A short squeeze is a powerful market phenomenon that occurs when a heavily shorted asset begins to rise in price. The initial price increase forces short sellers to buy back the asset to close their positions and cut their losses. This wave of forced buying creates a feedback loop, driving the price even higher and forcing more short sellers to capitulate. It's a cascade of liquidations that can lead to rapid, vertical price movements. Analysts believe that market makers are intentionally allowing short positions to build up around the current range, creating a pool of rocket fuel. The target for igniting this fuel appears to be a decisive break above $123,000. If Bitcoin can push past this level, it could trigger a chain reaction of short liquidations, propelling the price upwards with violent speed. This is not organic buying pressure but a technical event driven by market structure. Looking at the week ahead, two primary scenarios emerge from this tense setup. The bullish scenario involves Bitcoin successfully bouncing from the current support zone, holding its ground, and making a concerted push towards $123,000. A break of this level would likely trigger the short squeeze, leading to a rapid retest of recent highs and potentially pushing into the $125,000-$130,000 range. The bearish scenario, conversely, would see Bitcoin fail to hold this "ideal long zone." A break below the recent lows around $118,000 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis, suggesting that the institutional selling pressure is more significant than anticipated. This could lead to a deeper correction, potentially testing support levels closer to $100,000-$110,000. The outcome of this short-term battle is critical, as it sets the stage for the remainder of the year and will determine whether the more ambitious price targets remain in play. Adding to the tension, the market is heading into August, a month that analysts have flagged as being filled with potential volatility catalysts, from central bank policy announcements to major options expiry dates, ensuring that the current state of high alert will persist. The Wall Street Endorsement: The Race to Six Figures by Year-End While traders battle over short-term levels, Wall Street has its eyes fixed on a much grander prize. The narrative of this bull run has been fundamentally defined by the legitimization of Bitcoin as an institutional asset, and the price targets now emanating from the heart of traditional finance reflect this new reality. In a stunning vote of confidence, a major, unnamed banking giant has put forth a research note predicting that Bitcoin could reach an astonishing $200,000 by December of this year. This is not a casual prediction from a rogue analyst; it represents a calculated forecast from an institution with immense resources and influence. Such a bold call from a pillar of Wall Street signifies a deep conviction in the asset's trajectory, likely based on proprietary models of capital inflows from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and high-net-worth individuals. It serves as a powerful signal to the rest of the financial world, effectively giving institutional clients the green light to allocate significant capital to Bitcoin. This prediction, along with a growing consensus that Bitcoin is expected to exceed $150,000 by the end of the year, creates a powerful psychological anchor. When institutions of this caliber set such high targets, they can become self-fulfilling, as asset managers and funds feel compelled to gain exposure, lest they miss out on the anticipated rally. These bullish forecasts are not based on sentiment alone; they are supported by increasingly sophisticated on-chain analysis. One of the most-watched metrics in this cycle is the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio. In simple terms, the MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin's current market price to the average price at which all coins in circulation were last moved. When the ratio is high, it suggests the market is overheated and holders are in significant profit, increasing the likelihood of selling. When it's low, it suggests the asset is undervalued. Analysts have taken this a step further by creating MVRV Pricing Bands. These bands represent standard deviation levels above and below the "realized price," creating a data-driven framework for identifying potential market tops and bottoms. Currently, these pricing bands are hinting at a cycle peak valuation of around $130,000. This provides a more conservative, data-grounded target that aligns with the lower end of the Wall Street predictions. However, this on-chain model comes with a critical caveat: it is only valid if Bitcoin's price holds its current macro support level. This elegantly connects the long-term on-chain outlook with the immediate price battle discussed earlier. A failure to hold the line in the short term could invalidate the assumptions underpinning these models, forcing a recalibration of year-end targets. The path to $130,000, $150,000, or even $200,000 is contingent on winning the present fight. The New Adoption Paradigm: Corporate Strategy, Macro Shifts, and the "WeWake" Wildcard The fuel for Wall Street's bullish fire is coming from tangible, real-world adoption. The trend of corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, pioneered by MicroStrategy, is quietly but powerfully continuing. A recent example is The Smarter Web Company, a UK-based firm that recently announced the addition of 225 BTC to its holdings. While not on the scale of a multi-billion dollar purchase, this move is incredibly significant. It demonstrates that the corporate treasury thesis is expanding beyond a few high-profile early adopters and is becoming a global phenomenon, embraced by small and medium-sized enterprises who view Bitcoin as a superior long-term store of value and a hedge against currency debasement. Each of these purchases, while small individually, collectively contributes to a persistent supply shock, as more coins are moved from the open market into corporate treasuries for long-term holding. This steady corporate accumulation is occurring against a highly favorable macroeconomic backdrop. News that the United States has successfully sealed what some insiders are calling the "biggest trade deal ever" is being interpreted as a significant long-term tailwind for Bitcoin. Large-scale international trade agreements often involve complex currency fluctuations and settlements. In a world of increasing geopolitical friction and competitive currency devaluations, Bitcoin's properties as a neutral, apolitical, and globally accessible settlement asset become increasingly attractive. Such trade deals can increase global liquidity and put pressure on national currencies, subtly reinforcing the value proposition of a decentralized, non-sovereign store of value. Just as the market was beginning to digest this new landscape of institutional flows and macro support, a wildcard has entered the fray. A company named "WeWake" has reportedly stunned investors with a "big launch," creating a new, unexpected catalyst. While details remain scarce, the market chatter suggests WeWake is not another financial firm or institutional player, but a major consumer-facing technology company. The speculation centers on a groundbreaking integration of Bitcoin's Lightning Network for micropayments within a massively popular application or service. If true, this would represent a paradigm shift in adoption. To date, the primary use case driving this cycle has been Bitcoin as "digital gold"—a store of value for institutions and corporations. The WeWake launch hints at the reawakening of Bitcoin's other primary narrative: a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. A successful, large-scale consumer integration would prove that Bitcoin can function not only as a reserve asset but also as a transactional currency for everyday use, opening up an entirely new dimension of demand. The shock and excitement from this launch stem from its potential to onboard millions of new users to the network, not as investors, but as active participants in a new digital economy. This move from passive investment to active utility could be the key to unlocking the next major phase of exponential growth. The Long Road to a Million: A Mature Asset's "Pump and Consolidate" Journey With year-end targets of $200,000 now part of the mainstream conversation, the once-fringe prediction of a $1,000,000 Bitcoin is being re-evaluated with newfound seriousness. However, a key analyst has offered a crucial insight that reframes this journey: "The days of parabolic Bitcoin bull runs are over." This statement may sound bearish, but it is, in fact, a sign of Bitcoin's profound maturation as an asset class. The wild, untamed, 100x rallies of the early cycles, driven by retail mania and a lack of liquidity, are being replaced by a more structured and powerful, albeit less explosive, pattern of growth. The new path to $1,000,000, according to this expert view, will be a "slow and steady" process defined by a "pump and consolidate" pattern. This model envisions a market that behaves less like a volatile penny stock and more like a blue-chip technology giant. The "pumps" will be powerful, rapid upward movements, but they will be driven by specific, fundamental catalysts—the approval of a new wave of ETFs, a landmark corporate adoption by a Fortune 100 company, a major nation-state adding Bitcoin to its reserves, or a successful consumer integration like the one hinted at by WeWake. Following each of these catalyst-driven pumps, the market will enter a prolonged "consolidate" phase. Instead of a dramatic crash, Bitcoin will establish a new, higher plateau of price discovery. During these consolidation periods, which could last for months, the market will build liquidity, institutional players will accumulate and distribute positions, and the new price level will be normalized and accepted as a baseline. This creates a far more stable foundation for the next leg up. This methodical, stair-step ascent is the hallmark of a mature market with deep, two-sided liquidity provided by institutional players who both buy and sell, preventing the extreme parabolic blow-off tops and subsequent 80-90% crashes of the past. This "pump and consolidate" model makes the journey to $1,000,000 seem not only more plausible but almost inevitable, assuming the underlying drivers of adoption continue. It is a path built on structural strength rather than pure speculation. Each consolidation phase absorbs selling pressure and builds a stronger floor, making the entire structure more resilient to shocks. In conclusion, Bitcoin stands at a fascinating and pivotal juncture. It is weathering the short-term storms of institutional profit-taking and the intricate games of market makers, fighting to establish a firm footing above the critical $120,000 level. At the same time, its long-term trajectory is being underwritten by the full faith and credit of Wall Street, with audacious year-end targets of $150,000 to $200,000 now serving as the institutional base case. This optimism is fueled by a relentless wave of corporate adoption and favorable macroeconomic winds, and has been supercharged by surprising new catalysts that hint at a future of mass consumer utility. The ultimate destination may be the long-fabled million-dollar mark, but the journey will look different this time. The wild, parabolic arcs of youth are giving way to the measured, powerful, and deliberate steps of a mature global asset. The "pump and consolidate" rhythm is the new heartbeat of a market driven by institutional capital and fundamental adoption. While the path will undoubtedly be fraught with volatility, corrections, and periods of agonizing consolidation, the underlying narrative has never been stronger. Bitcoin is navigating the tremors of the present as it builds the foundations for a truly monumental future.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 25, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the trading session of the previous week, the Bitcoin market exhibited considerable volatility as it retested the Key Resistance level at 120000. On the lower end of the spectrum, the market engaged with the Mean Support levels at 117500 and 115900, culminating in the completion of the Outer Coin Dip at 115000. Currently, the coin is poised to retest the Key Resistance at 120000 once again. This anticipated rebound will necessitate a retest of the completed Outer Coin Rally at 122000. The additional target levels for the renewed Primary Up-Trend are 126500, 132200, and 135000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
GROK's Analysis of Bitcoin's 4-Year Market CyclesIn the past I have published my own analysis of Bitcoin's 4-year market cycles, (cycles 2 and 3). My purpose for analyzing the market cycles was to determine how similar in elapsed times the last two market cycles were to each other. Not only in the length of the overall market cycle but also between the major events, (bear market low to the halving, halving to the market cycle peak, and market cycle peak to the next bear market low). The results of my analysis shocked me. Not only were the last two cycles very close in overall length but they were also (in my opinion) very close in the elapsed times between the major events. I was shocked because an open market, whether it is the stock market, crypto market, or any other openly traded market can be influenced by so many different factors both inside and outside of the market. Internal factors that can influence an openly traded market could include, Supply and demand dynamics, market sentiment (investor psychology) and speculation, and market structure. External factors can include Macroeconomic conditions, Geopolitical events, Regulatory environment, Global events and crises, Interplay and volatility, and Monetary policy and liquidity. Then add into all of these influential factors that the Bitcoin market is traded globally, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year, it never closes. Taking all of these influential factors into consideration, it boggles my mind how there could be so much consistency between the market cycles. Anyway, my reason for publishing this topic again is because my analysis was basic. So I asked GROK to analyze the last three market cycles including the current cycle and compile all the results into a report. Can you analyze the last two Bitcoin 4-year cycles, (Jan. 14, 2015, to Dec. 15, 2018) and (Dec. 15, 2018, to Nov. 21, 2022), and compare them against each other? Then analyze the current market cycle which started on Nov. 21, 2022, and note any similarities with the previous two market cycles. Also, if possible, try to predict when this market cycle peak might occur. Please also include any analysis that you can do on Global liquidity including United States M1 and M2 money supply trends, U.S. money printing, and any relationship / correlation to U.S. interest rates. Please analyze the following along with any other pertinent data and make a comparison between the two cycles: • The duration from bear market low (beginning of the market cycle) to the halving. • The duration from halving to the market cycle peak price. • The duration from the market cycle peaks to the next bear market lows. • The duration of the overall market cycle (bear market low to the next bear market low). • Percentage gain from the bear market low to the market cycle peak. • Percentage loss from the market cycle peak to the next bear market low. • Please include the dates of the bear market lows, market cycle peaks, and halvings. • If possible, list the price corrections from each market cycle that exceed 20%. Also I want you to add any other pertinent data that you find in your analysis. Note: For this report the current price for Bitcoin on July 22, 2025 at 9:40 Eastern Standard time is $119,556.82 Below is a detailed analysis of the last two Bitcoin 4-year cycles (2015–2018 and 2018–2022), a comparison of their key metrics, an examination of the current cycle (starting November 21, 2022), and an exploration of global liquidity, U.S. M1 and M2 money supply trends, U.S. money printing, and their correlation with U.S. interest rates. I’ve included the requested metrics (durations, percentage gains/losses, key dates, and price corrections exceeding 20%) and additional pertinent data such as macroeconomic factors and on-chain metrics. Finally, I provide a speculative prediction for the current cycle’s peak based on historical patterns and current trends. Analysis of Bitcoin 4-Year Cycles Cycle 1: January 14, 2015 – December 15, 2018 Bear Market Low: January 14, 2015, $176.90 Halving Date: July 9, 2016 (block reward reduced from 25 to 12.5 BTC) Market Cycle Peak: December 4, 2017, $19,666 Next Bear Market Low: December 15, 2018, $3,122 Durations Bear Market Low to Halving: 542 days (January 14, 2015 – July 9, 2016) Halving to Market Cycle Peak: 513 days (July 9, 2016 – December 4, 2017) Market Cycle Peak to Next Bear Market Low: 376 days (December 4, 2017 – December 15, 2018) Overall Market Cycle (Bear Market Low to Next Bear Market Low): 1,431 days (~3.92 years) Price Movements Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Peak): ($19,666 - $176.90) / $176.90 = 11,018.09% Percentage Loss (Peak to Next Bear Market Low): ($19,666 - $3,122) / $19,666 = -84.12% Price Corrections Exceeding 20% May 2017: ~30% correction (from ~$2,700 to ~$1,900) June–July 2017: ~40% correction (from ~$3,000 to ~$1,800) September 2017: ~35% correction (from ~$5,000 to ~$3,250) December 2017 – February 2018: ~65% correction (from $19,666 to ~$6,900) April–May 2018: ~35% correction (from ~$9,700 to ~$6,300) November–December 2018: ~50% correction (from ~$6,300 to $3,122) Key Observations The 2015–2018 cycle was characterized by a prolonged accumulation phase post-2015 low, with the halving in July 2016 acting as a catalyst for a bull run. The market peak occurred ~17 months after the halving, driven by retail investor enthusiasm and the ICO bubble. The bear market was severe, with an 84.12% drawdown, exacerbated by the ICO bubble collapse and regulatory concerns. Cycle 2: December 15, 2018 – November 21, 2022 Bear Market Low: December 15, 2018, $3,122 Halving Date: May 11, 2020 (block reward reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC) Market Cycle Peak: November 8, 2021, $67,589 Next Bear Market Low: November 21, 2022, $15,476 Durations Bear Market Low to Halving: 513 days (December 15, 2018 – May 11, 2020) Halving to Market Cycle Peak: 546 days (May 11, 2020 – November 8, 2021) Market Cycle Peak to Next Bear Market Low: 378 days (November 8, 2021 – November 21, 2022) Overall Market Cycle (Bear Market Low to Next Bear Market Low): 1,437 days (~3.94 years) Price Movements Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Peak): ($67,589 - $3,122) / $3,122 = 2,064.22% Percentage Loss (Peak to Next Bear Market Low): ($67,589 - $15,476) / $67,589 = -77.10% Price Corrections Exceeding 20% March 2020 (COVID-19 Crash): ~50% correction (from ~$10,000 to ~$5,000) May–July 2021: ~50% correction (from ~$64,000 to ~$29,000) November 2021 – January 2022: ~40% correction (from $67,589 to ~$40,000) May–June 2022 (Terra/Luna Collapse): ~45% correction (from ~$40,000 to ~$18,000) November 2022: ~25% correction (from ~$20,000 to $15,476) Key Observations The 2018–2022 cycle saw a shorter accumulation phase before the halving, partly due to the COVID-19-induced liquidity injection in 2020. The bull run post-halving was fueled by institutional adoption (e.g., Tesla, MicroStrategy) and retail FOMO, amplified by global stimulus. The bear market was less severe than the previous cycle (77.10% vs. 84.12%), but events like the Terra/Luna collapse and FTX bankruptcy triggered significant corrections. Key Similarities Cycle Duration: Both cycles lasted approximately 4 years (~1,431–1,437 days), reinforcing the 4-year cycle tied to Bitcoin’s halving schedule. Halving as Catalyst: In both cycles, the halving (2016 and 2020) marked the start of significant bullish momentum, with peaks occurring 513–546 days post-halving. Bear Market Drawdowns: Both cycles experienced severe drawdowns (84.12% and 77.10%), though the 2018–2022 cycle was less extreme, possibly due to increased market maturity. Multiple Corrections: Both cycles saw 5–6 corrections exceeding 20%, reflecting Bitcoin’s high volatility during bull and bear phases. Key Differences Percentage Gains: The 2015–2018 cycle had a much higher percentage gain (11,018.09% vs. 2,064.22%), likely due to Bitcoin’s lower starting price and the speculative frenzy of the ICO bubble. External Influences: The 2018–2022 cycle was heavily influenced by macroeconomic events (COVID-19 stimulus, institutional adoption), while the 2015–2018 cycle was more driven by retail speculation and the ICO boom. Correction Triggers: The 2015–2018 bear market was driven by regulatory fears and the ICO bubble collapse, while the 2018–2022 bear market was exacerbated by crypto-specific events (Terra/Luna, FTX). Current Cycle: November 21, 2022 – Present (July 23, 2025) Bear Market Low: November 21, 2022, $15,476 Halving Date: April 19, 2024 (block reward reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC) Current Price (July 22, 2025): $119,556.82 Market Cycle Peak: January 2025, ~$112,000 (based on X post sentiment, not definitive) Durations (As of July 23, 2025) Bear Market Low to Halving: 514 days (November 21, 2022 – April 19, 2024) Halving to Current Date: 460 days (April 19, 2024 – July 23, 2025) Overall Duration to Date: 974 days (November 21, 2022 – July 23, 2025) Peak to Current Date: ~190 days (January 2025 – July 23, 2025, assuming peak at ~$112,000) Price Movements (As of July 23, 2025) Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Current Price): ($119,556.82 - $15,476) / $15,476 = 672.58% Percentage Gain (Bear Market Low to Assumed Peak): ($112,000 - $15,476) / $15,476 = 623.83% (based on ~$112,000 ATH in January 2025) Percentage Change (Assumed Peak to Current Price): ($119,556.82 - $112,000) / $112,000 = +6.75% (indicating no bear market low yet) Price Corrections Exceeding 20% (November 2022 – July 2025) June–August 2023: ~25% correction (from ~$31,000 to ~$23,000) April–July 2024: ~30% correction (from ~$73,000 to ~$50,000, post-halving dip) February–April 2025: ~20% correction (from ~$112,000 to ~$90,000, based on X sentiment) Similarities with Previous Cycles Duration to Halving: The 514-day period from the bear market low to the halving aligns closely with the 513–542 days in previous cycles. Post-Halving Bullish Momentum: Like the 2016 and 2020 halvings, the April 2024 halving preceded a significant price increase, with Bitcoin reaching ~$112,000 by January 2025 (a ~623% gain from the low). Multiple Corrections: The current cycle has seen at least 3 corrections exceeding 20%, consistent with the 5–6 corrections in prior cycles. Liquidity Correlation: The current cycle’s bull run aligns with global liquidity expansion (e.g., M2 growth from $102T to $107T by February 2025), similar to the 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 bull markets. Differences from Previous Cycles Lower Percentage Gain: The current cycle’s gain (623.83% to assumed peak) is lower than the 2015–2018 cycle (11,018.09%) and 2018–2022 cycle (2,064.22%), reflecting Bitcoin’s maturing market and higher starting price. Influence of ETFs: The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 bolstered demand, a new factor not present in prior cycles. Supply Shocks: The release of long-dormant coins (e.g., Mt. Gox repayments, government seizures) in 2024 caused temporary oversold conditions, unique to this cycle. Global Liquidity and Macroeconomic Analysis U.S. M1 and M2 Money Supply Trends M1 Money Supply (cash, checking deposits): M1 surged during the COVID-19 stimulus in 2020, peaking at ~$20T in 2021, but has since stabilized at ~$18T by mid-2025 due to tighter monetary policy. M2 Money Supply (M1 + savings deposits, money market accounts): Global M2 grew from $102T to $107T between January and February 2025 (3.8% increase), signaling renewed liquidity expansion. U.S. M2 specifically has shown slower growth since 2022, correlating with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom, but recent upticks align with Bitcoin’s rally to $119,556.82. Historical Correlation: Bitcoin’s bull markets (2016–2017, 2020–2021) coincided with rapid M2 growth, while bear markets (2018, 2022) aligned with M2 contractions. The current cycle’s rally since 2023 mirrors rising M2 year-on-year growth. U.S. Money Printing and Interest Rates Money Printing: Quantitative easing (QE) during 2020–2021 (e.g., $4T in U.S. stimulus) fueled Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 bull run. Since 2022, the Federal Reserve shifted to quantitative tightening (QT), reducing liquidity, but recent expectations of rate cuts in 2025 have spurred M2 growth and Bitcoin’s price recovery. U.S. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve raised rates from 0% to ~5.5% between 2022–2023 to combat inflation, correlating with Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market. Speculation of rate cuts in mid-2025 (potentially to 3–4%) has boosted risk assets, including Bitcoin, as lower rates increase liquidity and investor risk appetite. Correlation: Bitcoin has a ~0.94 long-term correlation with global liquidity (M2), with a 56–60 day lag between liquidity increases and price rises. Higher interest rates suppress Bitcoin’s price by reducing liquidity, while anticipated rate cuts in 2025 are driving bullish sentiment. Stablecoin Liquidity Stablecoin supply (e.g., USDT, USDC) is a crypto-native liquidity metric with a stronger short-term correlation to Bitcoin’s price than M2. Positive 28-day changes in stablecoin supply often signal accumulation phases, while sharp declines align with local tops. Current stablecoin supply growth supports Bitcoin’s upward trajectory in 2025. Prediction for Current Cycle Peak Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin peaks ~1,060–1,070 days from the bear market low (35 months), or ~12–18 months post-halving. Based on: Cycle Low: November 21, 2022 Historical Peak Timing: 1,060–1,070 days (October–November 2025) Post-Halving Timing: 12–18 months from April 19, 2024 (April–October 2025) Current Trajectory: Bitcoin’s price at $119,556.82 (974 days from low) and MVRV Z-Score <1 suggest further upside potential. Speculative Peak Prediction: Bitcoin may peak between late Q3 and early Q4 2025 (September–November 2025), potentially reaching $150,000–$320,000, based on historical MVRV ratios (peak MVRV ~8) and liquidity trends. Risks include global recession, equity market corrections, or regulatory shocks. Additional Pertinent Data MVRV Z-Score: Currently <1, indicating undervaluation and room for growth compared to historical peaks (MVRV >3). Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL): The current cycle is in the “Belief” stage, transitioning toward “Euphoria,” consistent with prior bull runs. Exchange Reserves: Declining Bitcoin reserves on exchanges (e.g., CryptoQuant data) indicate HODLing, reducing available supply and supporting price increases. Google Search Trends: Interest in “Bitcoin” and “crypto” peaked in prior cycles (2017, 2021) during bull runs. Current search volume is rising but below 2021 levels, suggesting the cycle may not yet be at its peak. Correlation with Risk Assets: Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached 0.73–0.76 in April 2025, reflecting its sensitivity to broader market sentiment. Conclusion The 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles share structural similarities (4-year duration, halving-driven bull runs, severe bear markets), but differ in scale and drivers. The current cycle (2022–present) mirrors past cycles in timing and liquidity correlation, with unique factors like ETFs and supply shocks. Global liquidity, particularly M2 and stablecoin supply, remains a key driver, amplified by anticipated U.S. rate cuts in 2025. Bitcoin’s current price ($119,556.82) and metrics suggest a peak in September–November 2025, potentially at $150,000–$320,000, though external risks could alter this trajectory. Investors should monitor MVRV, NUPL, and liquidity trends for intra-cycle positioning. As you can see this is a much more comprehensive analysis of the Bitcoin 4-year market cycle than my previous analysis. That being said the end result, at least when it comes to elapsed time similarities was about the same. It's obvious that for whatever reason the past two market cycles are amazingly similar in elapsed time. Moving forward it will be very interesting to watch as the rest of this current market cycle plays out. The major questions yet to be answered include. When will the market cycle peak occur? What will be the peak price? What will be the price of the next bear market low? Looking at the price chart, especially when you view a line chart it is obvious that as Bitcoin ages as an asset, price volatility diminishes. Will this continue? Only time will tell. One thing that is undeniable is this has been an exciting and at times a frustrating market cycle. However, whether it is exciting or frustrating I am very thankful to be involved in it. I realize that this is a fairly long read so if you have made it this far, thank you! I really appreciate everyone who takes the time to read my ideas. Stay safe and get ready for a wild ride over the next five to six months.
BNC:BLXLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
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