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BTC 2017 All Over Again? Is It About to Go Parabolic?Forbes just ran with a headline about a Bitcoin “death spiral.” The wording might be sensational, but the risk they are pointing to is real. It is sitting inside Bitcoin treasuries. Companies like MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Nakamoto are being packaged as safe institutional gateways to Bitcoin. The truth is, they are not just buying and holding. They are borrowing, issuing debt, and selling shares to continue buying more BTC. That structure works brilliantly when the price is running higher. When BTC pulls back, the debt remains while the value of the collateral falls. If their share prices sink at the same time, they cannot raise fresh equity. That is when forced selling begins, and the pressure feeds on itself. This is where the LUNA comparison fits. LUNA collapsed because the system relied on TWAP buying to keep its peg alive. It needed a constant programmed demand. The second confidence cracked that demand disappeared, the mechanism broke, and the whole structure fell into a reflexive death spiral. Bitcoin treasuries carry a similar fragility. They look strong on the way up because debt and dilution keep the system fed. But if one cracks, others will likely follow, and the forced selling could cascade through the market. It is history repeating in a new form. The Cycle Overlap Now layer in the cycles. December 2024 marked the rollover of the 8-year stress cycle in traditional markets. That signal has already triggered. But treasuries are not following that rhythm. They are moving in line with Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle. Every halving is followed by a strong run, a cycle top, and then a correction. That puts the real pressure point into December 2025. If treasuries hit the wall at the same time Bitcoin’s bull cycle peaks, the overlap could accelerate a blow-off followed by a brutal correction. The 8-Year Stress Cycle (Traditional Markets) 2000 → Dot-com bubble rollover. Fed started cutting rates, but equities crashed hard into 2001–2002. 2008 → Global Financial Crisis. Fed slashed rates aggressively, but markets fell into a full-blown meltdown before recovery. 2009 was the brutal washout before recovery. 2016 → Global growth scare, China devaluation, Fed hiking cycle wobble. Markets pulled back, stress showed, then liquidity stepped in. 2024 → December rollover. The signal of cracks returning: inflation sticky, rate cuts being prepped, credit stress building, and leveraged players under pressure. The pattern - every 8 years, traditional markets hit a rollover point where stress shows up, liquidity shifts, and the system resets. The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle 2013 → Top after 2012 halving, deep correction. 2017 → Top after 2016 halving, brutal correction in 2018. 2021 → Top after 2020 halving, correction in 2022. 2025 → Halving cycle points to a top window in December 2025, with correction risk into 2026. Where Tether Fits Tether (CRYPTOCAP:USDT) is not just minting stablecoins. It has become one of the largest buyers of short-dated US Treasuries on the planet, with more than 120 billion US dollars worth on its books. In calm conditions, that makes sense, they clip yield and backstop redemptions. But if markets crash and liquidity dries up, redemptions spike. To meet them, Tether must raise dollars by selling or repo’ing those T-bills. Normally, that is seamless. In stress, selling can add to liquidity drains at the edges of both the Treasury market and crypto. If redemptions surge at the same time treasuries are being forced to sell BTC, you get a double liquidity squeeze. The Technical Picture Look at the Fibonacci structure on the chart. The key levels line up with what could be a wave 3 of 3 in Elliott Wave terms — the most explosive part of any trend. That explains the sharp upside move this year. It is powerful, but it is also the phase where leverage and euphoria get stretched the furthest. If this lines up with treasuries cracking and Tether redemptions spiking, the volatility on both sides will be extreme. 2016–2017 vs 2024–2025 In 2016, traditional markets were rattled by China’s devaluation, an oil price collapse, and Fed policy missteps. Liquidity reset the system. For Bitcoin, that reset coincided with the halving and set up the most explosive run in its history. By 2017, equities were making new ATHs and Bitcoin went parabolic to nearly $20k before the brutal 2018 correction. Now in 2025 we are seeing the same setup. Stress triggered in December 2024, but liquidity is flowing back. Markets everywhere are hitting new ATHs. Bitcoin has surged and is acting like it is in its 2017 phase right now, the blow-off leg of the 4-year cycle. That puts the risk squarely into December 2025 for a cycle top followed by a correction. The Cycle Top Target I believe the cycle top for Bitcoin will land on or around 22nd December 2025. The Fibonacci levels line up cleanly with this window: Strong resistance at 0.236 and 0.382. Under normal conditions, these zones would cap the move, but if we are truly in a 2017-style run, price can blow straight through them in a parabolic surge before the eventual correction. Fibs left on the chart for reference. Key points BTC treasuries are leveraged and debt-loaded. Many treasuries exist, not just one, so cascades are possible. December 2024 = 8-year rollover in traditional markets. December 2025 = 4-year BTC cycle top window. Tether can flip from stabiliser to amplifier if redemptions rise. Fibonacci shows a potential wave 3 of 3, explosive but unsustainable. 2025 mirrors 2017: markets at ATHs, Bitcoin in parabolic mode. Target: 22nd December 2025 as the likely top. Stop losses and capital protection are critical. It looks like BTC 2017 all over again. The parabolic phase may not be finished yet, but the closer we get to December 2025, the sharper the risk of a brutal correction. This is not Bitcoin dying. This is a test of leverage and liquidity. If treasuries and Tether both get squeezed into the cycle top, the correction could be brutal. But as always, it will clear the field for the next 4-year cycle if you survive the next brutal 2026 BEAR Market. Thanks for Reading, and please let me know your thoughts <3 Lisa
BNC:BLXLong
by LisaNEdwards
Interesting Fib retrace info could help understand the next bear Nessy chart initily but I have broken it down here and it will be easy to understand Also, to make it ckearer to see, I have used a line for the PA..the retracements and % pull backs are accurately placed using the candles.... So, an interesting thing appeared when I was laying with Fib Replacements. Simply put, From 2013 ATH to the next Low was a -78.27 % pull back to the 0.236 Fib retracement From 2013 ATH to the next Low was a -82.20 % pull back to the 0.382 Fib retracement From 2013 ATH to the next Low was a -76.40 % pull back to the 0,5 Fib retracement So, after each ATH, PA pulled back to the next step down from previous fib retracement, while pulling back approx the same % Shuold Bitcoin do the same again, whichh would Scare a Lot of people, we could expect to see a pull back to the 0.768 Fib retracement...and using a near -80 % pull back, we would end up around 24K Low in Nov 2026 Will this happen ? Who know and I doubt it but until things and patterns change in the way Bitcoin runs its 4 year cycles, then it is a possibility. But I found it fasinating how yet anoterh sequence occured in the last 3 cycles that Bitcoin has performed. Nothing else has ever done this..... So, Lets see if it repeats
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoins has slipped back under Long Term resistance. CAUTION It is VERY clear to see and some just do not want to see it That Blue Arc, Arrowed, is an Arc that has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin began rising from its early Low. And also understand, that arc is not just a random line, It is Calculated and is part of a Fibonacci Spiral. ANYWAY, as we can see on the chart. PA is heading to a Squeeze with this Arc and a rising line of support below. This line of support has NEVER failed since PA crossed over it. So we have a n arc of Resistance that has Never been broken. We have a line of support that has Never been Broken. One of these two line Has to break. The Apex of this Squeeze us Dec this year and, as we all know, PA always react before the Apex. So, How accurate is the placement of this Arc ? Lets see the Daily chart Here we can see that PA has for most of this year, been trying to break over and, in July, succeeded, only to fall back below a week ago. To many extents this played along Very well with the monthly Candle Colour patterns I been posting. But the fact remains, we are once again BELOW a HUGE powerful line of resistance that we MUST break above and stay above. We do have many lines of Support below, Local and some, longer term. We can close on the 4 hour just to see where we are in a more local time frame. Here, we can see that 105K is a very possible line of support initially that we need to watch and see what happens. Hopefully, we range above this level and let RSI cool off. The RSI is always a great gauge to watch here and the daily offers some hope of remaining in this current PA range It must be said that RSI could still drop lower, though we have room to rise before PA becomes OverBought on the Daily. But the weekly shows us a longer term CAUTION flag. While we have not been OverBought on the weekly for a long time, we ARE up high, leaving the potential for a Drop. But with the Daily in good shape, this could be postponed. In this cycle, previous times we got overbought, PA ranged while RSI dropped. This could repeatover and over........But PA needs to rise OVER that line of resistance and turn it into Support. This is NOT a choice//it is a MUST HAPPEN if Bitcoin is to continue its rise higher. The current Price line of this Blue Arc is around 116K. What we realy need to understand about this Arc is that once we pass December 2025, that arc begins to DROP. And if PA is below it still, PA will get dragged down with it, into an ever decreasing price model. So, there we have it Simple as that.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): Trade Wave 5—Next Stop $127,000?Bitcoin’s current structure is lining up for a classic Elliott Wave fifth wave scenario, and the setup could offer a high-reward trade as we look for a measured push toward the $127,000 area. Here’s what’s standing out in the recent price action: What the Current Structure Shows (Primary Scenario) Wave 4 Correction Complete: After peaking in wave iii near $124,000, BTC pulled back and has potentially completed a wave iv correction. Price respected the Fibonacci retracement zones bouncing near the 38.2% retracement at $117,116. Preparing for Wave 5: With support confirmed, price action is stabilizing and looks primed for a final motive push—wave 5—to the upside. The target projection for wave 5 is around $127,000, in line with both the 61.8% extension of the previous swing and the common equality projection for wave 5 vs. wave 1 when wave 3 is extended. Why the Count Is Labeled This Way The advance from early July kicked off with impulsive movement, subdividing cleanly into smaller waves that align with classic Elliott structure. Wave iii is the clear standout—steep, extended, and carrying most of the move’s energy, which checks the box for a strong third wave. The cluster of Fibonacci and previous resistance/support near $127,000 offers strong technical confluence for the next objective. Trade Setup: Riding Wave 5 to $127,000 Entry Zone: Consider longs on breakouts above the current consolidation, ideally after confirmation of support holding near $117,100–$116,000. Stop Loss: Place stops just below $113,300 (the 61.8% retracement), or tighter for risk management depending on your position size and timeframe. Target: $127,000—where wave 5 projects to equal the length of wave 1 and aligns with multiple Fibonacci targets. What to Watch Next (Confirmation or Invalidation) Confirmation: An impulsive move above the interim high at $120,000–$121,000 with strong volume would confirm wave 5 is underway and that bulls have regained control. Invalidation: A break below $110,500 would invalidate this setup and suggest a more complex correction is taking shape. Final Steps: Monitor for impulsive character in the rally—wave 5s can sometimes truncate, so don’t get complacent at resistance. Alternate Count If price fails to hold support and breaks down, BTC could still be in an extended or complex fourth-wave correction—possibly a running flat or triangle—before wave 5 eventually resumes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheSignalService
Bitcoin Faces Impending Drop to Mid-30,000sAs of July 02, 2025, Bitcoin’s price chart, crafted by "RoadToAMillionClub" on TradingView, paints a concerning picture. Currently hovering at $107,831, the cryptocurrency appears to be teetering at the edge of its upper channel, signaling potential trouble ahead. The recent 0.51% dip may be just the beginning of a more significant decline. The long-term upward trend, marked by a supportive orange line since 2018, has been a beacon for bulls. However, the green trend line projecting a drop toward the mid-30,000s range, around $37,932, suggests a looming correction. This level, a historical support zone, could become the next battleground as selling pressure mounts. Market indicators point to overextension, with the price hitting a 4-day and 14-day high of $107,831 before the recent pullback. The speculative fervor that drove Bitcoin to these heights seems to be waning, increasing the likelihood of a bearish turn. Investors should brace for volatility, as the cryptocurrency may struggle to maintain its current altitude, potentially sliding toward the mid-30,000s in the coming months.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by RoadToAMillionClub
#BTCUSDT Big Pump Next Hour - Bitcoin, BTCUSD, BTCUSDT 📉 Double Bottom Pattern Forming – Potential Reversal Setup The current price structure is showing signs of a Double Bottom – a classic bullish reversal pattern. After an extended downtrend, this pattern suggests that the market may be preparing for a trend reversal from this key demand zone. 🔹 Trade Setup Entry, Targets, and Stop Loss (SL) are marked on the chart. Entry: Upon breakout confirmation above the neckline. Stop Loss: Just below the recent swing low to manage downside risk. Targets: Calculated using the measured move method from the bottom to the neckline . 🔹 Risk & Money Management (Professional Approach) To maintain consistent profitability and protect capital, strict risk management is essential. For this setup: 🔸 Position Sizing: Based on a fixed % of total capital (typically 1–2% of account equity per trade). 🔸 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Minimum of 1:2, ideally higher. 🔸 Stop Loss Discipline: No arbitrary changes after entry. SL only adjusted for breakeven or trailing stops once price moves favorably. 🔸 Trade Management: Secure partial profits at key levels, trail stops as structure forms. 🔸 Capital Allocation: Avoid overexposure. Trade fits within overall portfolio strategy. 💬 Let the setup come to you. React, don’t predict. 🔁 Like, comment, or share your thoughts below! BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P INDEX:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTO:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSD
Long
by rayhanrafi7
1
BITCOIN - under resistance since 2011-Birth of a new cycle soon The Chart Clearly explains itself Since before Bitcoin PA went into its current channel, it was under a Huge Arc that resisted any move higher...strongly, Every single ATH, Every one, even the most recent This is Easily seen by the Blue Arc And as you can see, maybe THIS is the real reason why PA is struggling to break higher....It just cannot break over that Arc. The main chart is Monthly, Lets look at the weekly. You can clearly see what happened in 2021, rejected twice and again this cycle. And you can see how, by December This year, 2025, PA will be squeezed very tight. And PA usually moves before the APEX> And, if we are going to repeat the previous cycle moves, the 1st year after a New ATH usually sees a decline in price, as can be seen by the red boxes. But PA needs to break OVER that Arc first. and then remain ABOVE IT. This would then create a new cycle pattern. And we need it. Currently, we can go back to Lows of 88K before we loose support on that lower trendline but from there, we need to break over. A Strong move in SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER would be Ideal Just saying
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin Monthly Candle Colour Close since 2011 - looking forward May Closed GREEN, and We are currently on a Very small Green candle for the month open. Last month, in this series of monthly charts posts, I mentioned this.. "On only 2 occasions have we had a GREEN JAN, RED FEB, RED MARCH, GREEN APRIL And Both of them were on the way to ATH. ( Arrows ) On both those occasions we had a GREEN MAY, though the gains were minimal and one was followed by a Green June and the other by a Red June." And we just closed May with a minimal GREEN candle. This is important to understand, This month, we have a 50/50 chance of repeating the Green June candle in this pattern. Outside of this pattern, The previous MAY closes, 7 Green to 6 Red. Of the 7 Green, 5 were followed by a Green June With this, we have a higher % chance of a Green June Of All previous June Closes, we had 7 Green to 6 Red. Of those 7 previous Green June Closes, 3 were followed by GREEN July Of the 6 previous RED Junes, ALL were followed by GREEN July With this in mind, we maybe in a better position if we did close June with a small RED candle, as we did in the 2020 sequence ( right hand Arrow) Should we close June RED, I will then expect a fairly level summer period with PA beginning to start moving again around September / October Bitcoin PA is in an excellent position to move higher now though. It is also in an excellent position to move away from previous cycle patterns and begin creating new one. We do have to remain vigilant as markets are moving everywhere and Macro conditions could change rapidly But the one thing that seems to remain static is that it is a VERY GOOD IDEA to Buy Bitcoin and HOLD IT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
Bitcoin could be SO close to take off - certainly shows Strength Before we go anywhere with this, we MUST remember that a "TREND LINE " requires a minimum of 3 points of Contact to make it Valid. The more points of contact the better. All of these Trend lines in this chart are therefore Valid. But what needs to be questioned is maybe the PA trend between the lines...... And because of the Scale of this, we are using only 2 past Factual data sets and one expected. So NOT a confirmed Trend But I shall continue anyway as there are a number of things that make this idea a possibility. So, on the chart we have the Upper and Lower day counts. The Lower is number of days between ATH 2013 -> 2017 = 1491 days 2017 -> 2021 = 1431 days 2021 -> 2025 = ...............Expected anytime from October to Dec. This is IF we follow the "pattern" 50 day difference between the 2 sets of Past data The Upper day count uses just ONE data point from the 2013 -> 2017 cycle. It is from the ATH to when PA made the BIG move to begin the climb to ATH. That was around 1277 days after the 2013 ATH and you can see the candle that rose off that line of support was substantial. As many of you know, I am firmly in the belief that this run is mimicking the 2013 -> 2017 run in many ways So, The same day count takes us past the First 2021 ATH, which I have always said was a "False" ATH in that PA was driven High, to early, by leveraged and hopeful gains. However, if you look at the distance from the end of that day count to when the ATH was reached, it is similar to the 2017 ATH So if we Project that same day count onto current PA, THIS MONTH is the month for take off. And again, See the difference between the end of the day count and the projected ATH daye. Similar to previous occasions. This is also reflected on the Fractal, that arrives on the upper trend line in November. One thing that makes me hesitate a little here is the projected ATH Price of Near 700K USD. I am not sure that is going to happen....And so we wait to see what happens. But I will watch this and see where we go I have pointed out in another chart, how Bitcoin PA is under a Very long time Arc of resistance and this could be in play and if so, This chart Will become invalidated. We Wait to see
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
6
Bitcoin is still following 2017 run. Surprising things to see As many of you know, I have been referring This cycle of Bitcoin to that of the 2013 ->2017 bull run. And while PA has Fallen off and below the Fractal itself, we do still have one Very Major thing to see and it is a Good one. So, the chart above has an arrow. This is pointing to Sep, Oct, Nov 2024. See how PA pushed up to the "Neckline" of the Range and got rejected for 2 weeks. A Red then Green Candles, on or below that "Neckline" and then Off it went. We are currently just below the "Neckline" of this Range and we are currently printing a Red candle. It is early days but maybe we will repeat the same pattern. There are reasons that I have explained in an earlier post today, that point towards a possible Red candle this week. The other thing I want to show you on this subject is the MACD This is a Daily MACD ( the main chart being Weekly) But while the actual PA of the MACD is different, I want you to see the Histogram. The Histogram shows us the % Difference between the MACD line ( yellow) and its Signal line ( Red) Have a look at the the similarity the histogram pattern in 2024 ( arrow ) compared to this period Now. The Large green Climb from a Low, the fall, the new smaller climb, the drop to Red and then a push higher. OK, so the scale is different but, to me, it shows a similar pattern to the previous end of Ranging period. We need to see if this pays out. If so, we will see a Red Histogram for a while.. This ties in with the ideas presented above on the PA patterns. But overall this cycle, we do seem to be repeating patterns in a broad sense, with a larger scale currently. The larger scale of thispossible Red Histogram also plays into the idea mentioned at the end of this post. So , what is the connection to the 2013 - 2017 Cycle. Look at the upper trendline that has rejected PA since 2024. This is an OLD line of resistance from before 2017... Lets look at a zoomed out chart Look at that Arrow on the Left and that trend line. It is the SAME LINE - Not only that, it rejected PA twice in late 2016 and 2017, before PA broke through and went on to reach a new ATH So, Having seen this, I am happy to believe that we ARE Still following that 2013 -> 2017 Cycle pattern. True, PA has fallen below the Fractel but we do seem to be repeating the Trend line Rejection, Dip, Rejection and........ You can also see how this same trend line, once crossed, is extremely strong support - infact we did not drop back below until July 2022, after another ATH BUT, as ever, I look to BOTH sides and there is a chance we may see a stiffer rejection, IF we get rejected here again. Should events dictate a further Drop in PA, we may see PA return to the next trend line below, around 82K. ( remember that Red Histogram pattern I mentioned earlier ) While this would Scare many, it would still play into the pattern we have been seeing. 2024 saw 3 major Rejections off its Neckline. We have had 2 so far in 2025 and we are there right now, waiting to see what happens, with a RED candle. A Drop back to 82K would also reset the Daily MACD very nicely. I remain Cautious and Bullish what ever happens in the short term, I have little doubt about further pushes higher, maybe a LOT higher
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
4
Bitcoin gameplan - What to expect nextWith BTCs most recent move higher and the confirmation of a higher low within the current uptrend (the one that started Jan. 23) we have sufficient indication to assume a short term continuation of the current rally. As next target I'm looking for 120k. In the very short term we might see a little corrective move (Scenario 2) or just power through the range high of the micro range to chase the set target directly. (Scenario 1) That highly depends on price reaction to the range high price level. (106k) Either way, BTC looks great at the moment and I'm pretty confident that the bull market is far from over, especially with more inflation on the horizon. Let me hear your thoughts!
Long
by HeadlessAlts
Bitcoin and the 2013 - 2017 Fractal Update - Have we left it >? For now, I am going to say YES but maybe not completely. If we look at the shape of the Fractal and what BTC PA is currently doing, it could be said that we have just completed 2 ranges in one go..the little one that Took us below the fractal and the other one that is next up the Fractal line. But it is the next 8 weeks that will define this fully and for now, so as to not get caught short, literally, I am looking to that Dashed Arrow that comes off the circle. Noe, I drew that circle back in late Feb ( posted in March ) and PA has just entered it, as can be seen on this Daily version of the same chart ( but with candles and not a line) The fact that we have even entered this area tells me that the dashed Arrow is the path PA will take as a route of least resistance and with a possible ATH in Dec of around 322K USD. That ATH is on the line of resistance drawn from the 2017 ATH and has rejected every Cycle ATH since. ( The line shown on the chart irons out detail but be assured, that line passes throgh the 2021 Nov ATH ) The possibility does exist, thogh gettign slimer, that PA could climb back over the top of the Fractal, though the push to do that would take a LOT of investment... possibly to much now. So, I will sit happy, looking forward to a 370K -> 322K ATH later in the year.. And it MUST be said, as I always say, Look on both sides. There is a possibility that PA could Drop back to the 80K - > 72K line though I feel this is highly unlikely but we are now entering a zone of strong resistance Things may get Volatile Soon. But I would just like to say "THANK YOU" to the 2013 -2017 Fractal. You have taken us on a ride since Nov 2021 and shown us how to do things properly. And so now.........New Adventures and Horizons await........Onwards and upwards
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BITCOIN Monthly Candle close patterns since 2011 - APRIL CLOSE Again, we got the expected Monthly Close, This time GREEN April is traditionally a Strong Green Month, now with 9 Green Closes to 5 RED - Nearly twice as many Green to Red. MAY is a different story, Nearly 50 / 50 previous closes with GREEN having an advantage of 1. BUT, With April closing Green after the previous months closes, things do look positive. On only 2 occasions have we had a GREEN JAN, RED FEB, RED MARCH, GREEN APRIL And Both of them were on the way to ATH. ( Arrows ) On both those occasions we had a GREEN MAY, though the gains weer minimal and one was followed by a Green June and the other by a Red June. We have had 4 occasions with a MARCH RED, APRIL GREEN, MAY GREEN Of the previous 9 GREEN April Closes, 5 were followed by a Green June And of those 5, 2 were followed by consecutive Green candles closes for the following Months. Though in 2020 sequence ( 2nd Arrow) after a GREEN May close, you can see the candles were not big and we had Red Green Green Red for 4 months then went Green consecutively. Of the previous 7 Green MAY candles, 4 were Bigger than the previous month candle. I am more inclined to look at the 2020 sequence in this for now and yet, at the same time, as posted in another chart, I am also still looking at the lead up to the 2017 ATH and for this to continue, we need a Bigger GREEN MAY close this month. There is a very strong line of resistance just over head. Currently, at time of writing, The opening MAY candle is GREEN but only just This month is CRUCIAL
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
A Good Example of How Market Makers Manipulate BTC Price- As liquidation areas are visited, price drops back down, retraces back up just to fill the price imbalance before continuing to for a new low. - The latest price action is similar to the previous, and there is a very good likelihood that the Bitcoin price will create another major new low - Also take note of the fake out in the ascending channel to trap traders into placing long positions. The fake out was also able to trigger stop losses from short positions. Let me know what you guys think and comment below.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by QuantumTraderPro
Bitcoin 50 SMA time snaps and Low to ATH since 2014 - UPDATEIn a similar vein to the chart posted earlier today about the patterns between the 50 and 100 SMA, this post is using the 50 SMA ( RED) and the time spent above and below PA. Alongside this, we have the day counts for PA LOW to PA ATH since 2014 After 2013 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 399 days below PA After 2017 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 329 days below PA After 2021 ATH and once the 50 SMA dropped below PA, it spent 420 days below PA - This is an impressive stat as it includes the Deep Bear that we experienced after the Luna, 3 Arrows & FTX crashes, includes the raising of interest rates and the utter presecution by Banks and SEX in the USa. The fact that the drop below PA was only extended by 35 days ( average) Max shows a strength in Bitcoin sentiment. It could NOT be broken In 2015, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, it remained there for 938 days In 2019, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, it remained there for 1001 days In 2023, once the 50 SMA has risen above PA, we have been above for 756 days of an expected average projection of 966 days This projects that PA will Drop Below the 50 SMA in about October 2015, After the ATH as previously. This points towards an ATH in Q4 - this has some confluence with the previous post though open to suggestion. Next is the simple PA LOW to ATH and Back to LOW day counts 2013 ATH to Cycle Low was 665 days then 847 days to Cycle ATH 2017 ATH to Cycle Low was 350 days then 1064 days to Cycle ATH 2021 ATH to Cycle Low was 378 days then, using the average of the two previous day Count from Low to ATH, gives us 952 days to Cycle ATH This puts an ATH in JUNE 2025 ! I do not think this is realistic in anyway however, Anything is possible currently. I do however think that June is about when PA could seriously begin to make Moves higher, with intent to reach a Cycle ATH. The reason being, the weekly MACD will have reached Neutral by then ( if not in mid May ) So while this chart offers some confluence to other ideas, it also offers another ATH date that is way earlier than any previous cycle ATH - While I feel this is unlikely to happen, we Must keep open minds.. the adoption of BTC by main stream now may well accelerate the PA cycle. We shall wait and find out. Be prepared for ALL occasions....including the arrival of an early Bear. - THAT will be in another post, at some point soon Stay safe
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
2
BTC Halving | Halving Mapping | Bull Run | Bitcoin Analysis Timeframe: 1 Week (Halving Mapping) This article focuses on three key aspects of Bitcoin’s halving, based on historical research: Bull Market Moves Bear Market Moves Pre-Halving Moves As you can see in the chart above, the previous halving events have been mapped out, providing a clear picture of Bitcoin’s price behavior. Historically, after each halving, Bitcoin enters a bull market, followed by a bear market. Additionally, I’ve observed and mapped a unique pattern that isn’t widely discussed: a pre-halving upward move that occurs before the halving event. This pre-halving move often provides significant returns, especially after a bear market phase. For investors and long-term holders, this presents an opportunity to divide investments into two parts: Pre-Halving Move: Capitalize on the upward momentum before the halving. Post-Halving Bull Run: Benefit from the sustained bull market after the halving. These strategies don’t require extensive technical analysis. A deep dive into historical data makes the patterns clear. Historically, after an uptrend, Bitcoin experiences a downtrend lasting between 1.5 to 2 years. Keeping these patterns in mind can help you craft effective investment strategies. Current Market Bull Run Update A common question among traders and investors is: Has the bull run ended? Is this the last exit point for Bitcoin? Based on my research, the bull run is not over yet. While we may see a downward move in the near term, this is likely to be a manipulation phase, creating FOMO (fear of missing out) among traders who might believe the bull run has ended. However, Bitcoin is expected to make one final upward move, reaching a new all-time high. This final phase is likely to occur in the latter part of this year, with 2025 being entirely dominated by the bull run. Looking at the 2020 halving chart, you can see a clear "M" shape pattern. At that time, the market experienced a similar phase where the "M" shape completed, and Bitcoin retraced significantly, creating FOMO. However, it eventually surged to a new all-time high in the final phase. Currently, I believe we are witnessing the formation of a similar "M" shape. Bitcoin is in the process of completing the first half of the "M," which could lead to a downward move. However, this is not a cause for panic. After this retracement, Bitcoin is expected to complete the "M" shape and reach a new all-time high later this year. On-Chain Analysis Insights From an on-chain perspective, it’s evident that major investors have not fully exited their positions. There’s a general sentiment among large holders to create FOMO, allowing them to buy back at lower prices. This aligns with my research, suggesting that the current market dynamics are part of a larger strategy. Additionally, the recent delay in the bull run can be attributed to the rise of meme coins. These coins have created a frenzy, with politicians and influencers jumping on the bandwagon to launch their own meme coins. This has diverted attention and capital from Bitcoin, causing a slight delay in its upward momentum. However, once the meme coin hype subsides, Bitcoin is expected to resume its upward trajectory. Summary Halving Mapping: Three key phases were discussed – the bull run, bear market, and pre-halving upward move. Current Chart Structure: Bitcoin is forming a half "M" shape, which may lead to a downward move before completing the pattern and reaching a new all-time high later this year. 2025 Outlook: The entire year of 2025 is expected to be dominated by the bull run. Note My goal is to simplify the chart and help you understand the price action clearly. I avoid overloading the chart with unnecessary indicators or creating confusion. My analysis focuses on keeping the chart clean and straightforward. Thank you!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by The_Chartist30
BTCUSD Weekly Double TopsAs I analyse CRYPTOCAP:BTC - it is now at a crossroads. If in the upcoming week the price doesn't go up, it can possibly be bearish. However, we have a strong support around $92-93k, and if that's broken, we have to be careful. Notice how it looks like a double top on the weekly - the second wick is manipulation before distribution. Trust me, Im bullish on BTC, but I will be taking some profits and monitor the price closely. Trade well, and stay safe!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by trey_trades_gold
1
All you need for Bitcoin to see top, bottom or a crash.These charts show everything you will ever need to buy and sell Bitcoin. 5 day BTC chart.(right chart) Orange vertical lines on chart show when the RSI touches the pink horizontal line after it touches the top red horizontal line. This indicates a bear market. Yellow vertical lines on chart show when RSI rose above orange line after touching the blue line but failed to touch the red horizontal line before hitting the pink horizontal line. This indicates a crash is coming. The green arrows on chart show whenever the blue EMA8 goes below the yellow MA55 after being above it. This indicates either BTC has entered a bear market or a crash like setup similar to covid. If we get another green arrow you will know what to do as it will be a crash or bear market. The green trendlines on chart show each bull run Bitcoin touches this trendline 3 times or more before it has a parabolic move. The anamoly being the covid crash. So far this bull run it is only twice that Bitcoin has touched the green trendline. On the LMACD the green vertical lines show everytime the 5day LMACD crosses down (blue LMACD line going under orange LMACD line) when it is above the horizontal yellow line. This has happened 21 times with only 1 time (red vertical line) where price did not drop to the EMA21 (orange moving average line) on the chart. BTC just did this cross on LMACD so it has a 95% chance of moving down to touch the orange EMA21. Based off all this clear evidence it is easy to see that you sell Bitcoin when RSI hits red horizontal line. Confirmation of bear market is as per indicators mentioned above. You buy when RSI touches blue horizontal line. You won't sell the exact top or buy the exact bottom but very close to it. You would need a different chart to calculate the exact top. This chart will stand the test of time if history keeps rhyming for Bitcoin. Monthly BTC chart.(left chart) On the monthly chart the orange vertical lines indicate whenever the Stoch RSI went above the green horizontal line. The yellow vertical line on the chart shows the covid crash as the Stoch RSI did not stay above the green horizontal line for very long. The green arrow on the Stoch RSI shows when it fell straight through the red horizontal line after being above the green horizontal line. This indicated a bear market. The pink arrows on the Stoch RSI show the crossover of the Stoch RSI (blue RSI line crosses under orange RSI line) after it fell below the green horizontal line and bounced off the blue or red horizontal lines. This indicated the top and a bear market. After seeing this current information on the Stoch RSI (bounce off blue line) it looks like the upcoming crossover will be a pink arrow. These arrows indicate time to exit the market as you can see.
BNC:BLX
by Pro_Trader_HTBB
From Moonboys to Bag Holders: The Bitcoin SagaAh, the Anatomy of a Mania , the chart that keeps on giving! Bitcoin chilling at GETTEX:97K in the ‘New Paradigm!!!’ zone? 🚀💎🙌 Translation: everyone’s sipping on hopium smoothies and thinking they’re financial geniuses. Spoiler alert: they’re not. 😏 Next up? Bull Trap Boulevard—where FOMO warriors jump back in screaming ‘TO THE MOON!’ 🌕 only to realize they just bought the top... again. 😬 Then we head straight to Capitulation Carnival, where wallets cry louder than the people who said ‘I’ll never sell!’ 🤡 And let’s not forget the VIP afterparty at Despair Dungeon—population: bag holders. 😭 But hey, don’t let me stop you. Ride that red line, champ! 📉 I’ll be waiting at the mean reversion party with my popcorn. 🍿😎
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RoadToAMillionClub
26