Bitcoin Monthly Candle Color Close patterns since 2011Quote from end of last months post, even though I had talked about a Red August
"The possibility that the July push higher may give people false hopes exists and we need to remain Cautious But, at the same Time, I do feel things may change and we could see that push higher sustained in August, We just need to wait and see and react accordingly."
August Closed GREEN
There is only one occasion we have had this recent sequence of 4 monthly candle colors and that is circled on the left of the chart in 2013
The Centre Circle is now also similar and Both point towards a Small Red September, followed by a push higher in Q4
The left Arrow points towards something I am now looking at.
This points to the Low of 2015 that bounced off the 50 Month SMA ( Red) that I have once again included in this months chart.
The month sequence is slightly different but notice how there was a Flat few months prior to the large RED Drop to the 50 SMA.
This was followed by a small Green candle and then a larger green candle.
We just did something very simialr. If that pattern continues, that points to a Green September and October.
The second Arrow points to a very similar pattern in 2023. Range, Drop to the 50 Month SMA, small Green Candle then a larger one, followed by continued upside.
Again, the month are not the same...but the pattern is.
The main difference between these is that PA currently and in 2015 was falling from ATH, the Bear Flooe had been reached.
In 2023, PA had already beeen rising off that Deep Bear floor for 8 Months.
But I am favouring the Arrows to the Circles as potential future moves.
And you may have noticed that the candle pattern in the 2013 circle is also similar to the Arrowed patterns in that we have a Sharp RED Drop to a low and then a small green candle followed by a larger one after. The 50 SMA does not go this far and even if we could if would be way below.
To some extents, the 2021 pattern ALMOST fits to....
So, we have ideas that point towards September being Both Red and Green
Previous September Closes are 6 GREEN to 9 RED, a third more RED than Green.
There has been only ONE Occasion we had a Green Septeember after a Green August and that was way back in 2012.
Again, a RED September forecast but probably a small one if we are in the start of a bull run.
Historicaly, bouncing off that 50 Month SMA does point to the Start of a Bull Run and THAT, if it is the case, Almost confirms the breaking of the much talked about 4 year Cycle.
I have been talkng about that , on many charts, for a number of years now.
I cannot wait to find out. Very interesting days ahead and maybe best to leave All your Options OPEN
Statistical Odds say September should be RED
Previous Patterns point towards GREEN
My Opinion is we may wel see a pull nack early Setember but could see a recovery later in the month, this may lead to that small RED September....but it really is either way
Leave your options open. Morning Star Pattern: Why the Middle Candle Carries the SignalMost traders learn the morning star pattern as a shape: long red candle, small candle, long green candle, buy. That is why so many of these setups fail. The three candles are not equally informative. The first and third only confirm what the chart already showed. Only the star in the middle carries new information.
The evidence on three-candle reversals is real but conditional. A study of every S&P 500 stock from 1992 to 1996 tested eight three-day reversal patterns, the morning star among them, and found deviations from the null of up to 36 standard deviations. Loosen the entry rules and the edge vanishes.
What Is the Morning Star Pattern?
The morning star is a bullish reversal pattern: it signals a potential end of a downtrend. It forms over three sessions at the bottom of a decline, and each session does a job.
First candle: a long bearish body closing near its low. The downtrend is intact and sellers are still paying up to get out.
Second candle: the star. A small body of either color, ideally a doji, sitting below the first candle's close. Supply and demand are balanced for the first time in the move.
Third candle: a long bullish body closing well up inside the first candle's range. Buyers are not defending, they are taking back the damage.
Steve Nison, who brought candlesticks to the West in his 1991 book Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques , named it after Mercury, the star that rises before sunrise. The pattern marks not the low but the session where selling stopped.
The three candles of a morning star, with the 50 percent level of the first body marked. The third candle has to close above that dashed line.
Is the Morning Star Pattern Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish, without ambiguity, but only in one context. Those same three shapes after a rally are not a morning star, because there is no downtrend to reverse.
Reading the Morning Star Candlestick Pattern in Context
Two conditions separate a valid morning star candlestick pattern from three coincidental candles.
A measurable downtrend must precede it. The S&P 500 study defined this mechanically: a three-day moving average of closes falling across six sessions with at most one violation. Any consistent rule works; no rule does not.
The third candle must close above the 50 percent level of the first candle's body. That filter turns an impression into a testable condition.
The Star Is the Whole Signal
Reliability scales with how small the star's body is and how far it sits from its neighbours. A doji star gapping clear of both is the classical form, and the reason is mechanical: a gap means no trading happened in that range, so nobody built a position there to defend.
Crypto complicates this. BTCUSDT trades around the clock, so daily candles almost never gap, and the strict morning star pattern barely exists on a Bitcoin chart. Read the star's shape instead of its position: a very small body plus a long lower shadow shows price probing lower and being rejected inside the session, the same exhaustion a gap would have advertised.
Right: the classical form, where gaps isolate the star. Left: the crypto version, where a tiny body and a long lower shadow substitute for the missing gaps.
Morning Star vs Evening Star
The two formations are mirror images.
Morning Star
Prior trend: downtrend
First candle: long bearish body
Second candle: small body or doji, gapping down where gaps exist
Third candle: long bullish body closing above the midpoint of the first body
Signal: bullish reversal
Typical use: cover shorts, look for longs
Evening Star
Prior trend: uptrend
First candle: long bullish body
Second candle: small body or doji, gapping up where gaps exist
Third candle: long bearish body closing below the midpoint of the first body
Signal: bearish reversal
Typical use: trim longs, look for shorts
The useful point about morning star vs evening star is that the bullish side tested stronger: downtrend reversals deviated from the null by 36 standard deviations against 26.7 for uptrend reversals.
A Worked Example on BTCUSDT
The first daily candle opens at 86,500 and closes at 85,000, so the body midpoint is 86,200. The star closes at 84,680 with a lower shadow to 83,300. The third candle must close above 86,200, not merely above the star.
When the Morning Star Works and When It Fails
The case for it. A 2015 study in the Journal of Banking and Finance retested eight three-day reversal patterns on Dow Jones components and found them profitable at 0.5 percent transaction costs after correcting for data snooping. Thomas Bulkowski's own pattern testing puts the morning star's bullish reversal rate at 78 percent and ranks it twelfth for performance among candlestick patterns.
The case against it. That same paper found the identical patterns unprofitable under a different exit rule, so the exit decides as much as the pattern. A 2006 study of 35 Dow stocks found no value in 28 candlestick patterns tested against bootstrapped random series, and a 2009 study of 349 stocks agreed. Ten years of Thai data, morning star included, gave no significant mean returns for most reversal patterns.
Market regime is decisive. Intraday on Dow stocks, a third of 83 candlestick rules beat buy and hold before costs, none after. Inside a strong downtrend a single reversal cluster is usually a pause, so use the pattern to cover shorts rather than open longs. Once a market stops making lower lows, the same three candles at a defended level are a far better trade.
The morning star is not a prediction. It is a photograph of the session where selling ran out, and the star is the exposure that captured it. Size the star against its neighbours, insist on the close above the first body's midpoint, and demand a downtrend worth reversing. Miss one and you are trading a shape.
Education
The Similarity Bitcoin has to 2024 Range and what that means
The thing to look at here is the Parallel channel PA is in.
The centre line is the Horizontal Blue Dashed line. This is the 0.5 line
Either side of that, we have a white small dashed line. This is the 0.25 and 0.75 line
Above and below those we have the Solid Blue lines. these are 0 and 1 lines.
And the blue dashed lines above and below those are the -0.25 and 1.25
Now look to the left side where PA is in this channel.
The lower day count is from when PA entered the upper half of channel, 0.5 to 1.
PA ranged in there for 126 days before it dropped below 0.5.
From here, despite rising above 0.5 occasionally, it did spend the majority of time below 0.5 so I will say it was in the Lower half of channel.
That drop down to lower half happened in beginning July 2024 and it ranged low for another 70 days before making a sustained push higher.
Now come and look at the right side, current PA
We dropped down into the upper half of channel near the start of this yeat and we also spent 126 days in the upper half before PA dropped down to lower half, same as 2024. This happened in early June.
2024 was early July.
Should we spend 70 days ranging Lpw, as in 2024, we should see the beginnings of a sustained push higher in the very near future
You can also notice the 21 week SMA ( Orange) is also in a very similar position to 2024.
And just for reference, the significance of that channel ?
That Channel is the very same one that rejected PA twice in 2021.
These are strong trend lines here,,,,,
So, lets see what happens....One thing of CAUTION here is that in 2024, PA ROSE into this channel.
In 2026, PA Dropped into this channel after ATH.
Anything can happen here, PA can go in either direction.... but I do think something WILL happen.
Have a good Weekend............... Long 
Macro view of 1 line that determines the next Bull Run in BTCBTC Monthly Macro View: The Purple Trendline Is the Key
Bitcoin remains below a major monthly resistance trendline, shown in purple. This line represents an area where supply continues to overpower demand, preventing buyers from establishing a confirmed macro reversal.
Current price action also resembles the previously highlighted bear-market structure: weakness below resistance, failed attempts to regain momentum, and sellers maintaining control. As long as BTC remains beneath the purple trendline, the broader structure should be treated as bearish.
The next major clue will be whether Bitcoin can break above this trendline and confirm the breakout with a strong monthly close and follow-through. Until then, the line may continue pushing price lower or limiting rallies. Any decision to buy, sell, or remain patient should consider how price behaves around this resistance—not FOMO, predictions, or someone else’s conviction. Short 
BTCUSD: Pullback to support, setting up a rally to 67,800BTCUSD is trading around 64,670 after breaking out of a downtrend channel and shifting into a recovery structure. The price currently sits above both moving averages, with the fast MA remaining above the slow MA, indicating that buyers retain control on the H4 timeframe.
Trading Plan
Long entry zone: 62,300–63,600
Confirmation: Bullish rejection or a solid H4 close above 65,000
Primary targets: 66,800–67,800
Invalidation: Clear H4 close below 62,000
The 62,300–63,600 range serves as a key support area. If BTC retraces to this level but shows a bullish rejection candle and quickly reclaims 64,000, the pullback could conclude before the price resumes its upward movement toward the target zone.
As long as BTCUSD holds this support zone, the bullish scenario targeting 67,800 remains the preferred outlook. Long 
Are we about to repeat 2022 or about to break BTC 4 year cycle ?
Yes, it seems VERY possible we could break that cycle and here is why.
This chart, I first posted in Apeil 2024. has played out very well.
Each vertical line is one year.
The Blue Arc is the diminishing Curve of % increase in BTC Price from Low to high, as first posted in 2022
The Coloured Boxes are the 4 year cycle phases,
RED is the post ATH and Bear market
GREY is post Bottom and waiting fro SMA to cross Bullish, PA Rises
BLUE is beginning of Bull run
GRREN Bull run to ATH
As you can see, currently, we are half way through the RED Zone. Traditionally, This would point towards a continued Drop in store for a few more months.
We are actually in a similar position to 2022 except we do not currently have the TradFi attacks and Bank crashes that took out FTX and other Crypto organisations.
You will Notice the 200 week SMA ( Yellow) has now also been touched by PA.
In previous RED zones, this touch happens at the end of the Red zone, except for 2022.
So a further Drop iseems less likely.
PA has also reached an accepted "Bottom Zone"
This is also supported by chart that shows us the 50 and 100 week SMA crossovers.
Orange day count boxes for ATH to SMA cross over
Blue to next Bullish cross over.
Grey Bullish cross over to ATH
Zoomed in, we see that the Orange crossover has just occured,
As we can see from previous years, except the 2022 bear, This crossover signals that we are very near or on the Bottom and PA rises from here, unless we have serious issues , as we did in 2022.
So, we either are about to see another Drop caused by some MACRO event....and this IS possible.
Or we break the 4 year cycle.....
Why will this break the 4 year cycle. ?
Looking back to main chart, at No point has PA begun a continued Rise to ATH half way through the RED Zone after an ATH.
So we should expect a further drop...
BUT We have 3 SMA's pointing towards a Bottom and traditional pushes from these.
Traditionally, this Rise to ATH begins on or near that 50 / 100 crossover. We just had that.
PA has rarely dropped below the 200 week SMA and when it does, it finds a floor pretty quick and returns, as has jst happened.
Again, 2022 was an exception with many targetted outside influences.
The Rise maybe Slow, almost nohexistant BUT it is Not a Drop to 40K or Lower.
Way back in January this year, I said 60K zone would be the bottom and I think this is still the case.
And I have been buying..........
Everything here is just ONE example of why I think we will see a change in cycles......
Jult has a high chance of being GREEN and so, despite everything I say here, August is a month to watch CLOSE but, at worst, If PA rises this month, August will simply see us return to this area.
Time Will tell................and I cannot wait
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4H | Breakout Loading? Bitcoin Breakout Loading? Bulls Eye $64.8K While $60.4K Remains the Line in the Sand
Bitcoin is showing a constructive 4-hour market structure with buyers gradually reclaiming control after establishing a series of higher lows. Price is now approaching a major resistance zone where the next directional move could define the short-term trend.
📈 Bullish Scenario
A decisive 4H candle close above 62,400 could trigger fresh buying momentum.
Bullish Targets
🎯 TP1: 62,680
🎯 TP2: 63,270
🎯 TP3: 63,900
📉 Bearish Scenario
Failure to break resistance followed by a close below 61,600 may invite profit booking and a deeper retracement.
Bearish Targets
🎯 TP1: 60,600
🎯 TP2: 60,000
🎯 TP3: 59,300
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance: 62,100 – 62,400
Support: 61,200 – 60,800
Bias: Bullish above resistance | Bearish below support
⚠️ Patience pays. The highest-probability trade comes after confirmation, not before. Avoid trading inside the range and let price reveal its direction.
What is your view?
🚀 Breakout towards $64.8K or rejection back to $58.4K? Share your analysis below.
If you found this analysis useful, don't forget to 👍 Boost, 💬 Comment, and 🚀 Follow for professional institutional-style market insights. Long 
Why is Bitcoin 50 & 100 week SMA bearish crossover so BULLISH
AND IT IS
It signals the "Near "End" of down trend. The Weekly SMA is a laggy indicator, showing you what has already happened.
And so, History shows us that when these cross over, The Bear has existed long enough for the bears to begin getting tired.
Let me show you
50 week SMA RED
100 week SMA BLUE
2013 ATH to Low
Vertical arrow shows the Crossover
Horizontal Arrow shows the Low, 119 days later
2017 ATH to Low
2017 was interesting as the Low happened BEFORE the SMA Bearish crossover.
70 days before infact !
2021 ATH to Low
Vertical arrow shows the Crossover
Horizontal Arrow shows the Low, 56 days later
And our current situation, the main chart shows that we have NOT had the Crossover BEFORE the Low.
We maybe AT the Low now, as many indicators could suggest but we will only know that after a few Months. Choppy ranging is more likely. But we must NOT discount the idea of further downside....We just do not know.
A reminder of the main chart, current situation.
The day count here, of 84 days, is the average of the 3 previous day counts BUT remember 2017 was BEFORE the crossover.....but the 84 days brings us very nicely to a time where we could see the beginnings of a change of direction, The End of September
August and September Months are mostly RED months, UPtober follows.....
So, if we follow this, we should expect another Low but it may not be Deep.
Waiting Till September seems a long way off, given the state of many indicators right now....
July us traditionally a GREEN Month, so maybe we will see a decent rise, and then a drop back down to current ranges.....?
We just do not know BUT things are getting towards the end of the Bear as far as I can see......
Time will tell............
Bitcoin Monthly candle close Color since 2013 and ideas Quote from Last Months post
"So, in reality, the odds are that we will see a RED June unless we are in the beginnoings of a Bull run.
Assuming June closes Red, There have been 4 Red May / Red Junes, (Circles) and each was followed by a Green July..2 Went on to a New ATH, the other 2 fell into a Bear .. "
JUNE CLOSED RED
The Circle remain as guides to possible PA path.
It is a 50 50 chance of ultimate direction but the odds of a Green July are High. But as you can see from previous patterns, it may not be a Big candle,
It is what happens in August that we really need to see.
I cannot help looking at what happened in 2021 and some similarities we have now.
The Drop from March ATH to Low in 2021 was around -56%
We have a very similar drop right now, at -55%.
July 2021 was the turning point and PA pushed up to a new ATH in November. Green July, August, Red September, Green October, ATH in November and sharp pull back.
Currently, PA is oversold, on or slightly below support lines and certainly has the room to move higher.
That is the Bullish View.
My eyes are also drawn to the 2022 circle.
PA is not exactly the same but neither is the world. But it shows ATH, Drop, Range, Drop and then Range. I am hoping we do not see the next version of the FTX Drop, that took PA down to 15K.
But, instead, we see ranging till the Bulls are ready....
Thats my "Bearish" view.!
The Day counts shown this month are from ATH to Low.
2013 - 396
2017 - 365
2021 - 365
If Bitcoin is still in the classic 4 year cycle pattern, From the October 2025 ATH , 365 days takes us to ...... October this year!
This also points to Ranging, possibly 3 months of Ranging still to go.
The current Range Box is 60K to 80K USD and so we may see Ups and Downs till we get near Q4.
Previous July Closes are 10 Green to 4 Red.
The 4 Red Julys were all preceeded by at least 1 Green month.
This has NOT just happened.
The Odds of a Green July to come are high but previous August and September are mostly RED.
August 5 Green 10 Red
September 6 Green 9 Red
There have been 4 Red May / Red Junes, Green July (Circles) and 2 Went on to a New ATH, the other 2 fell into a deeper Bear ..
On the 2 occasions we had a push up, we had a Green July and Green August and it was sustained for 4 months till we hit ATH.
Conclusion
Odds on for Green July. And it is August we really wait to see.
We can go in either direction currently, though we are on or very near support levels that would traditionaly point towards ranging or push highers.
Drops below the 60K current Floor are possible if Panic hits Risk Markets and we need to pay attention to the DXY $ and to the Yeilds off Bonds.
Bitcoin has bottomed out in so many ways. Technicaly. Higher has the most likelyhood, it is just a matter of WHEN ? Long 
Long 
Long 
Long 
Bitcoin & 2013 Post ATH & 2021 ATH & 2024 Range Box -UPDATE
This follows on from the post yesterday, were I talked about this idea that we may Fall out of channel and repeat what happened in 2013
Last night, we fell out of channel for the first time since 2016
On this main chart, you can see current PA and a Fractel of part of the 2013 Fractel from 2013 ATH and on wards. And We do seem to be repeating this.
Even to where we are now.
A reminder of what happened in 2013
Arrow points to the approx position current PA is now.
And this clearly shows the potential for a Drop further,
This would also folllow the New "Cup" that PA has entered.
This can be seen better on this chart.
This also shows us the 2 current lines of support resistamce that PA is inbetween.
The 2 ATH's of 2021
On this chart, we can see that Fractel reaching down to the 1.235 Fib line. The Price here is the Much talked about 40K line. If you follow that line to the left and reach PA in 2022, you will notice a similar type of PA to what we have just printed, PA Dropped from ATH to a support line, Small bounce, rejrct, Bigger bounce, rejection, support failed.
The same happened in 2013 but the BIG difference is how PA dropped out of channel in 2013, as we have just done.
I will admit, I did not expect that to happen as we are now below tradional cycle likes of support.
This leads me to think that New cycle dynamics are being created.
"But what about the World Geopolitica events" I hear you shout.
The Fact is, this was always a possibility, simply due to the dimisnishing returns BTC PA has posted, rounghly 1/3 smaller each cycle ( as first mentioned in 2022 )
We also have the "Blue Arc of resistance" I have been talking about since 2023.
A Reminder.
The Key to the day counts above PA is below
Orange day count boxes for ATH to SMA cross over
Blue to next Bullish cross over.
Grey Bullish cross over to ATH
Yellow Box at end using -100 days each time ATH to cross over,
The SMA are not shown but we are on schedule to repeat the 2021 Crossover day count.
The Blue Arc is part of a Calculated Fib Spiral and, as you can see, has rejected EVERY BTC ATH.
The Current ATH did manage to break over slightly but was smacked back down...
The Channel line of support below PA has supported PA since March 2013.
PA was in a tight Squeeze betwewen thises 2 lines and something had to give.
And it was Bitcoin that gave way.
So, Now, here we are, in many ways, on a traditional Bottom, But now below long Term support
Volitility is certainly here and may continue for a while.
PA is bouncig around between the two 2021 ATH lines
It has also found support on the 2024 Range box Mid line.
We have some very interesting times ahead with Strong support and Resistance everywhere.....
Bulls......Bears.........LET BATTLE COMMENCE FULLY
Bitcoin Selloff Signals Low Pole Reversal In PlayThat escalated quickly.
While I expected the floor to be tested, I did not expect it to be tested this quickly.
Bitcoin PA High Time Frame (HTF) Analysis
The High Time Frame (HTF) Point and Figure Chart (1W, Box Size 300, 3 Box Reversal), above illustrates once the formation established the Trade Range with a ceiling of $79,500 and a floor of $65,100 in Phase A of this Wyckoff Accumulation Range, it moved into Phase B where true accumulation begins and the Trade Range is tested.
The ceiling of this Trade Range was tested with a swift Upward Thrust (UT) to $82,800 and was met with a massive selloff (with volume) that drove the price to the $65,400 handle which is within $300 of the floor of the range, forming a Low Pole in Point and Figure Chart Analysis. This is generally a bullish setup for a Low Pole Reversal.
Bitcoin PA Low Pole Reversal
When a Low Pole forms (a decline of at least three boxes), this signals a potential bottom and the end of a downtrend with a bullish reversal pattern in play. Once seller exhaustion happens one should expect the formation to “Reclaim the Pole” - The reversal X's must rise at least as far as the O's fell.
Key Price Handles
If we assume the fall to $65,400 was the climax of the selloff to establish the Low Pole one would expect the reversal to drive the relief rally to $79,200 to “Reclaim the Pole” when this reversal pattern plays out.
A few caveats to this.
First, I am not totally convinced $65,400 is the climax of the selloff. There is the potential the formation would retest the long-term channel trendline at the $63,000 handle forming a spring before the reversal. Anywhere within the $67,000 – $63,000 should be an excellent entry point to trade the reversal. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
Second, given the formation is at the beginning stage of Phase B, the Low Pole Reclaim may reclaim only 50% of the pole, targeting a relief rally to the $72,300 handle on a swing trade. An exit anywhere between $72,000 and $79,000 should be an excellent exit.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
Long 
BTC/USD | D1 jun. 2, 2026 | Week 23BTC/USD | D1 Structural Mapping
June 2, 2026 | Week 23 🕒 19:27 UTC-3
The current daily price action has not yet indicated a structural reversal, but it is reaching significant geometric values that demand close attention.
To map these critical levels without relying on standard lagging indicators, we project two distinct structural alternatives based on our internal geometric metrics:
📐 The Geometric Projections
Alternative 1 (Orange boundaries): This projection is based on the structural correction of the primary initial movement (a). This yields a geometric mapping with tighter, more localized boundaries.
Alternative 2 (Red boundaries): This projection is based on the macro expansion from the extreme of the structural channel (a). This provides a broader perspective with wider limits.
📍 The Overlap & Conflict Zone
The true power of Market Geometry reveals itself through confluence. When we overlay both Alternative 1 and Alternative 2, a highly relevant common area—a major Conflict Zone—stands out right around the 64,500 level.
⚡ Tactical Plan
Because the D1 timeframe is structural and broad, we do not guess the exact bottom. Instead, our tactical approach is to shift our focus to lower timeframes (H8, H4, H2, and H1).
We will patiently wait for a specific geometric pattern to develop within this 64,500 Conflict Zone. Only when a clear structure forms will we define a precise entry trigger and strict Stop Loss boundaries.
Zimu Trader: technical analysis that powers your decisions! 🛡️⚡
(If you found this structural mapping helpful and want to see the lower timeframe updates, please follow, interact, and share!)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC #Bitcoin #MarketGeometry #PriceAction #TradingEducation #TechnicalAnalysis Long 
Long 
Expanded Bitcoin ascending channel may show us what to watch for
I will show you this chart in 2 parts.
First we have the Ascending channel.
This is a channel created way back in 2012 - 2013
Notice how PA, in 2012, did not rise above the 1 Trend line, the Upper White line.
It came down, bounced off the 0.5, got rejected off the 0.75 and them fell trough the 0.5 around 266 days after ATH
Once PA had bounced off the Red 0 Line, notice how PA has remained in the channel 0,5 to 1, except to reach higher to ATH.
I will mention that, again, in this current "Cycle", PA has remained in channel and NOT reached above the 1 Trend line to reach the ATH. The same as in 2012 - 2013
PA is currently sitting just above the trend line 0.5, with the ability to Bounce, or fall trough.
Also take Note of the day counts, These are the times when PA has retreated from ATH and reached the next major trend line below abd thrn fell trough.
2013 - 266
2017 - 161
2021 - 161
2025 - still above after 178 days - June 28, When Monthly MACD reaches Neutral is 88 days from now. ( That date is subject to change depending on so many things but it is a Time to watch for.)
The Horizontal channels give us more information.
Notice how those days counts also work in these channels to.
We can also see how these channels are getting closer together by around 33% each time.
The 2013 - 2017 PA fell out of channel, bounced , rose back up, met resistance on ATH line of channel, broke through and went to ATH
2017 - 2021 Was tighter to the channel but did fall out briefly, bounced and broke back in and used the lower line of channel as support before reaching higher to New ATH
2021 - 2025 Remained in channel for Both ATH and the lower line was used as support as PA fell away from 2nd ATH. PA fell down and used the ATH line of the previous channel as support, only loosing that to Excessive outside influences like FTX collapse.
PA rose back into channel but met resistance just under the ATH line of previous channel.
PA finally broke out and has reached the current ATH but, as yet, I can see no channel created the same way as these Channels.
PA is currently sitting on the upper ATH line of previous channel, as the previous cycle had.
So, combined, I see Bitcoin in an area of HIGH Support and yet potentially Fragile also, should this support break
My previous post about Bitcoin Channel and Cups is much the same idea.
I will post this again in more detail later but if we zoom into the current daily, we see more detail
On this we also see how Support from the Cup has ended as PA met the rising trend line.
This line was lost back in August 2014, as can be seen on the main chart just above. Never again after it was regained.
All in all, there seem to be a number of similarities to the 2013 post ATH move from PA and if you look on all these charts, it is the same 2 trend lines that PA has been stuck between.
Does this mean Bitcoin Will fall out of channel as in 2014?
NO, but the possibility does exist.
What we maybe need to remember is how Bitcoin was a lot cheaper in 2013. It was easier to move the PA line.
Bitcoin is a Heavy weight now......Harder to Move
Nut if we loose support and fall below, as we did in 2014, it mayne worth remembering that that cycle, 2014 - 2017 set the Trend for the next 3 years..............
So now ,we wait to see if Bitcoin Bounces off its current Area or not.
We may have to wait...that Orange box day count on the last chart is when the Monthly MACD reaches Neutral......a likely bounce zone. We talked about Exactly this earlier.
If PA rises significantly before then, I would expect a sharp retrace.
Again, as in 2014
But I could be wrong..Things are changing in Bitcoin World.....
I just buy it and wait.............
