This chart tried to reflect the uncanny similarities between Bitcoin's previous cycles and will try to use that information to "predict" next market cycle top in terms of price and time.
The price is derived using Log FIB extension 1.618 and is the minimum Bitcoin has to hit.
Although Bitcoin has gone way above this extension in the past, I am going to keep things a little conservative.
The chart is aimed to not use any indicators to keep it clean but you can apply Pi cycle top indicator (which has been super accurate to make it more precise)
The chart shows how bottom of the previous bear market to the next one takes about 206 Weeks or so and how bear market lasts about 52-55 weeks while Bull market (from the bottom and not halving) is about 155 Weeks ish.
While the drawdowns are becoming less and severe by some percentage, I chose about 75% drawdown for next bottom in 2026 with price of about mid 40K.
Like someone said " All models are wrong but some are useful" this can clear some noise and provide us some timeframe when we can start taking some profits based on time and price.
Over time, I will provide update to this model if I think I can make it more accurate.
LFG!!
The price is derived using Log FIB extension 1.618 and is the minimum Bitcoin has to hit.
Although Bitcoin has gone way above this extension in the past, I am going to keep things a little conservative.
The chart is aimed to not use any indicators to keep it clean but you can apply Pi cycle top indicator (which has been super accurate to make it more precise)
The chart shows how bottom of the previous bear market to the next one takes about 206 Weeks or so and how bear market lasts about 52-55 weeks while Bull market (from the bottom and not halving) is about 155 Weeks ish.
While the drawdowns are becoming less and severe by some percentage, I chose about 75% drawdown for next bottom in 2026 with price of about mid 40K.
Like someone said " All models are wrong but some are useful" this can clear some noise and provide us some timeframe when we can start taking some profits based on time and price.
Over time, I will provide update to this model if I think I can make it more accurate.
LFG!!