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BITCOIN Short-term outlook doesn't look promising. Unless...This analysis is on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 4H time-frame where we're looking on its short-term perspective. As you see since the August 15 High and the rejection on the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), the trend has been bearish and using the Fibonacci Channel with its extensions, better grasps the movement. The price has been closing below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since August 16 and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since August 18. Every major drop (black arrows) was preceded by a Channel Up/ Bear Flag pattern, where sellers accumulated. It appears that we are in such a Flag currently that is about to break downwards. On top of that, BTC failed to break above the Lower Highs trend-line tha started on the August 15 High and last time that happened (August 26), the new drop happened. We are though very close to the Channel's Bottom (Lower Lows trend-line), which broke momentarily on Aug 28, so a new drop may target the -0.5 Fibonacci extension. On the bull side, the 4H RSI has been on Higher Lows since August 19, also printing an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. A candle close above the 4H MA50 should be enough to accumulate buyers into targeting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). On the longer-term, only a weekly closing above the 1D MA100 seems capable to restore the bullish trend. Also, consider this Higher Lows zone since June 30, illustrated by the dashed lines on the chart below (I didn't include this on the main chart to make it less messy): Which direction do you think Bitcoin will follow? Break above the 1D MA50 or new drop? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
5
Bitcoin- Stuck in rangeAfter the Sundayțs low at 19500, Bitcoin has entered in a range between 19500 and 20500. Yesterday, a new atempt of breaking down was quickly reversed and now the price is just under resistance again. Considering the force of the reversal we can expect a break of resistance and acceleration to the next important level at around 22k On the other hand, a break down would expose the previous low under 18k. At this moment I m bullish Bitcoin and I m looking to buy dips against 19500
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
31
BITCOIN Recovering the 1D MA100 is key for $30000 as in 2019The trading set-up on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) since the June 18 low looks a lot like the price action that followed the December 15 2018 Bottom of that Bear Cycle. There is no need to overanalyze this as a simple comparison of the two charts of 2022 and 2019 would suffice. As you see in 2019 when the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it entered the final stage of Accumulation inside a Channel Down before the first rally of the new Bull Cycle. The pull-back was contained above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Once the price broke above the 1D MA50 but more clearly above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), there was considerable buying accumulation that in just over one month broke also above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to reach the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This Fib is on today's set-up around 32700. The 1D MACD patterns so far are fairly similar. One more Bullish Cross on the MACD may confirm the bias to break above the 1D MA50 initially. Do you think that as long as the 0.786 Fib holds and the 1D MA100 breaks, BTC can reach 32700? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
9
Updated BLX possible Bitcoin bottom indicationsAs mentioned previously, the last two bear market lows are the only time that the weekly RSI has closed in oversold. The RSI and Stoch RSI structures at that point, and leading out, are the same. And this all appears to align with the most recent breakdown into oversold just a couple of months back, in June. We can also note a pullback after RSI rallied out of oversold in the previous occurrences. This would be the likely stage we are in if the chart continues to follow those previous bear markets. The orange line is the weekly 200 MA. The green line is the weekly 50 MA and the blue line is the weekly 100 MA. The 50 has crossed below the 100 in the previous two bear markets AFTER price has bottomed. We appear to be a week away from that same cross right now which means that IF the chart continues to follow the previous two bear markets, then we shouldn't see a low below the June 2022 swing low. Finally, we can note that the hash ribbons indicator at the bottom of the screen has flashed the recovery lime green bubble after flashing the grey capitulation bubble. So, while past results don't guarantee the same in the future, there are a lot of similarities in the same areas. We will see if they play out the same way this time or not.
BNC:BLX
by Chris_Inks
7
BTC weakening I haven't posted on here for quite a while, so I decided to update you on BTC. We can appreciate that BTC has been forming bearish flags throughout this bear market. These are typical distribution patterns where traders take profit and bottom pickers gamble based on thin assumptions. We can see that every time BTC broke out these formations it resulted in a strong volatile move to the downside. We also have similarities in how every time BTC recovered above the 52 MA, the loss of it would validate the pattern providing resistance and points of entry for shorts. BTC had a mild reaction based on the last inflation data that had found resistance at the Anchored VWAP of the bottom of 2018. VWAP are level of interest where institutions look for liquidity in either sides (Supply and Demand). Institution and big funds to enter or unload their bags need a high amount of liquidity in order to fill their orders or pass their assets to you, otherwise they would create a strong reaction in the market or simply lose money in the spread created. VWAP is volume weighted average price so track the price average weighted for its volume suggesting areas where the price has strong volume. BTC at the moment has clearly broke out the formation, however this time it seems there is less gasoline on fire. We have a very important level to keep our eyes on which is the previous 2017 peak. This level proved to be a strong support. At the same time the price have been overstretched to the downside which is clearly shown in the oscillators. I would be cautious at this point as strong volatility may enter in both sides at this 18800. The pure target of the formation is down to 11k which is a strong possibility now. However pay attention at the data at 18800 as things may reverse quickly. Short term I expect a retest to the broken support of the formation before a continuation to test the 18800 support. At the moment I am staying on the sidelines waiting for a strong candle signal which either confirm the downtrend and show a potential reversal. In my community we have recognised the warning signs early and we are out since 24000 avoiding a 17% drawdown of the last drop. Just always remember to use sound risk management...DCA can be powerful long term (5 to 10 year) but short term will destroy your capital as I believe we don t have infinate fund and you will find yourself in a strong losing position. DCA is best at the beginning of a bull trend rather then in a bear market. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
by CFcryptoTA
BITCOIN Will the pivot line hold again?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has completed nine days below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it failed to capitalize on last week's slow rise and got rejected on Friday just before breaking it following Powell's comments on the Fed's outlook. This downtrend has started on August 15, after the price got rejected exactly on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The last time we saw a similar rejection was on March 02. BTC also suffered a short-term pull-back, before rebounding again to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and eventually starting the new selling sequence. A key during the Nov 2021 - March 2022 phase was the Pivot trend-line (1) which at first was a perfect Resistance but then on the shorter-term turned into a Support, which gave the critical bounce to the 1D MA100 and the 1D MA200. We have an identical trend-line (2) since March that has been acting as a Resistance since July 20 and after breaking, has held so far twice, with the first bounce giving the 1D MA100 test. If it holds, there are high chances of starting a new rebound towards the 1D MA200. If not, the fractal model is invalidated and should put the 1W MA300 to test. Notice also that the Ichimoku Cloud is now on green territory. When that happened on March 25, Bitcoin had already started the rebound to the 1D MA200. So do you think the Pivot trend-line will hold? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
BITCOIN Cyclical 1D MA200 model shows bottom & bullish break-outBitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to have a constant cyclical behavior, repeating certain aspects over and over again during each Cycle. The model that I will quickly analyze on today's post is no different and it involves the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ** Similar dips and break-out durations ** On this 1W time-frame, you can see that during the past two Cycles, the price dipped -65% (Jan 12 2015) and -63% (December 10 2018) after the last rejection on the 1D MA200, before making the Bottom of the Bear Cycle. Also, the times from the rejections until the price broke again above the 1D MA200 are comparable, as it respectively took 33 weeks (231 days) to break above it on June 29 2015 and 36 weeks (252 days) on the April 01 2019 1W candle. As you see, those are roughly identical numbers and continue to hold during the current Cycle as well, as the drop from the last 1D MA200 rejection (March 28 2022 candle) to the June 13 2022 Low, has also been -63%, making it a bottom according to the model. If this process is fulfilled, then the price will break above the 1D MA200 again by the week of December 05 2022 the latest. ** Williams Alligator showing the Bottom is in ** An additional indicator that brings value to this model, is the Williams Alligator used on a 3W time-frame here. As shown during the past two Cycles, the market Bottom was made right when the green trend-line (lips) crossed below the blue trend-line (jaw). Similarly when the green trend-line crossed back above the blue, BTC had already started rising into the new Bull Cycle and that was an indication that the first rally of the Cycle made its top. So do you think that this model will be repeated once more, meaning that the market has already bottomed and Bitcoin will break above the 1D MA200 by the week of December 05 2022 the latest? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because the chart has the added element of the Williams Alligator plotted and pinned to scale Z, it is not constant and may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
20
BITCOIN 1W MA50/100 Cross! No better time to buy than now!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) saw a strong pull-back last week after it failed to break above its 1D MA100 and got rejected. We've already addressed that but what we do need to update you on is the fact that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is crossing below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). This is technically a Bearish Cross but as the chart shows, during the previous two Bear Cycles, it has always been a signal that the price has formed its Cycle low and that BTC was inside the Accumulation Zone leading to the new Bull Cycle. It is evident that the current price action is very similar to those of February 2019 and April 2015 where BTC made its 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross following a pull-back. With the 1W MA300 supporting, we may be closer to a 2015 type price action than 2019. In any case, there is another important set of indicators showing that the bottom is in. First the 1W LMACD making a Bullish Cross. Every time it made this formation after touching the -0.20 level, BTC was well inside the Accumulation Zone of the new Bull Cycle. Secondly, the RSI on the 1M time-frame hit and is rebounding on the historic Lower Lows trend-line (Support). Every time this happened the Cycle bottom was in and when the RSI broke above its MA (yellow trend-line), a new rally (first of the Bull Cycle) started above the 1W MA50. Do you agree that this indicator combo is enough evidence that the time to buy is now? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
25
Start of BTC BULL Season Yesterday i.e. 13-7-2022, PI-CYCLE BOTTOM indicator plotted the FIRST BULL signal of BULL PHASE of this season. In 2015, 1st PI-CYCLE BOTTOM yielded in around 11798% ($166.45 to $19804.25) gain. In 2018, 2nd PI-CYCLE BOTTOM yielded in around 2108% ($3124.51 to $68997.75) gain. In 2022, 3rd PI-CYCLE BOTTOM signal has flashed. (kindly share your views in comments below on how much gain can we get this time). ///////////////// //////////////// With the FLASH of Pi BUY signal, we have closed 80% of positions size on all SHORT TRADES opened in november 2021 (20% runner still intact with strict SL). //////////////// //////////////// Our TRADE SETUP for this BULL SEASON (position size allocation): Pi BUY signal = 15% (ENTRY TAKEN) H BUY signal = 15% (ENTRY PENDING as Signal yet to FLASH) D BUY signal = 15% (ENTRY PENDING as Signal yet to FLASH) HG BUY signal = 15% (ENTRY PENDING as Signal yet to FLASH) HR BUY signal = 15% (ENTRY PENDING as Signal yet to FLASH) Emergency fund = 25% Out of our 5 trade setups, we have opened 1 long position. Rest 4 signals are yet to come, will be updated as soon as they FLASH.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by cryptopreet
2
BTCUSD Miner Capitulation ended! Best Buy but eyes on the USD.Two days ago the Hash Ribbon on the well-known indicator flashed a buy signal, technically ending the Miner Capitulation! What does this mean for Bitcoin (BTCUSD)? Well historically, Miner Capitulation periods have occurred on absolute market bottoms (or lows during uptrends), providing the most attractive buy entries. The 'blue' buy signal on this indicator practically marks the end of this period, which gives the most optimal entry for a long-term investor. With the price being within the Buy Zone that comes all the way from the previous Bear Cycle bottom, still on Higher Lows, continuing to imitate the December - March 2019 bottom formation process, we may be in a spot similar to Jan 12 2019, when the price broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after having marginally broken above it previously, stayed below for 2-3 weeks but when it recovered it again, it didn't break it for months, starting the first rally into the new Bull Cycle. BTC is again currently below the 1D MA50 after trading above it for the majority of August. A break above it again, could be the last we see for months, initiating the new rally. The only objection we have against this pattern getting repeated, is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) displayed by the green trend-line, which has been rising aggressively since mid August and is something that isn't consistent with Bitcoin rallies. Technically, BTC doesn't rise when the USD rises as well. Check the recent history where all major bottoms (Dec 2019 and March 2020) have coincided with the USD trading at least sideways. Do you think however that the Miners Capitulation ending can provide a boost strong enough on its own regardless of the rising USD? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN Will the historic Growth Support come to the rescue?Since the rejection on the 1D MA100 five days ago, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a short-term pull-back which got accelerated yesterday. We covered the short-term outlook with an urgent update yesterday: For long-term traders and investors, the scene is a little different and is best illustrated on the 1W time-frame. This shows the price breaking below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but still considerably above the 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which was the level that provided the support and immense rebound in March 2020 during the COVID asset-wide collapse. What is perhaps more relevant than ever now, is BTC's Historic Growth Zone (blue) which has held on the mid-June low and is about to be put up to test again. That Support Zone has started back on the August 2015 low, the first after the 2014 Bear Cycle. Respecting this level, means that we are still inside the ultimate Buy Zone and therefore at the start of a new Bull Cycle. At the same time the 1W RSI is (naturally) pulling back a notch and seems to be consistent with the April 2015 and January 2019 pull-backs, which where right before the start of the first rallies of the new Bull Cycles. So what do you think? Will the historic Growth Support come to the rescue once again or not? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
BITCOIN Critical test for this uptrend. CAUTION needed.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was rejected on Monday on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) with the selling accelerating today as the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since July 27. This is a critical test for this uptrend as the very stable Channel Up that started after the June 18 Low, is approaching its Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line). ** An identical Channel Up ** The 1D RSI shows that we are testing the symmetrical Support Zone of another Channel Up, that of January 24 - May 04, similar in structure with the current one. As you see as long as that Support Zone held, the price was contained within the former Channel Up. In fact that Channel was also rejected at first on the 1D MA100 and fell below the 1D MA50 (twice also) but recovered and hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where the eventual rejection started to the June 18 Low. ** 1D MA200 or 1W MA300? ** As a result, the RSI shows the limits where trading inside the current Channel Up can be prolonged. A break above the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel could be enough to hit the 1D MA200 but a break below can be extremely alarming as not only the long-term Support of the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) may be tested but if failed, even a downside extension to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level is possible, which is exactly the first level hit when the former Channel Up broke. What scenario do you think is more probable? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
2