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BTC Cycle Review: know when to hold 'em & when to fold 'emReviewing the time around the halving that produces profitable trending signals. From the chart 1 yr and 2 months before the halving and 1 year 5 months after the halving produces profitable signals consider pre halving to be spring consider post halving to be summer consider the red X between the two to be winter and unprofitable to take signals. Posting this up as reference into the next cycle. interested to see how this plays out.
BNC:BLX
by SnarkyPuppy
6
IBIT — Ishares Bitcoin Trust. Under Bearish PressureThe iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has been a mixed performer year to date, with its price up and down around 20 percent this year and currently tracking for low double-digit returns in 2025. The ETF currently trades around $59.36–$60.40, with assets under management of around $68 billion and a 0.1 percent premium to net asset value (NAV). 1-Hour Technical Outlook On the 1-hour time frame, technical indicators are mixed but generally bearish: Moving Averages: Short-term moving averages (e.g. 200-hour SMA/EMA) are currently signaling a Sell signal as the price moved below these averages in late May. Support and resistance: The ETF faces resistance around $61, corresponding to the broken 200-hour SMA, and support around $54, with stronger volume-based support around $47, corresponding to the beginning of the April rally. RSI indicator: Over the last 20 days, the RSI(55) indicator has already been briefly noted below the baseline of 50, highlighting the need for more active risk management, since, as we can see from the chart, the indicator has again moved into the risk zone in late May and early June (where it currently remains), accordingly, for a longer term. Volatility: During the recovery period in April-May 2025, the ETF demonstrated moderate intraday volatility (with half the 200-hour sigma value (σ) of about 3.5 percent), while the 20-hour decline on May 22-23, which exceeded this value, has provided at that time clear arguments for more active risk management. To summarize, we can say that NASDAQ:IBIT is experiencing a pullback, technical indicators point to local persistence of bearish sentiment, following the classic, empirically proven adage of the financial market "Sell in May - and Go away." -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
NASDAQ:IBIT
by PandorraResearch
2
BITO's Elliot Waves on 1DTwo resistance nodes were found on $28.44 and $33.67 on the daily TF. Based on the MCB indicator, there is no sign of bearish divergence on both lower and higher TF. Daily RSI is at the overbought area, and two nodes on the VWAP show two possible prices at (0.618/0.768). Hoping for a healthy pull-back to $21.5 to pick up more shares. No plan to shrink my holding until the $40+ area. I think it will take us at least 6 months to reach the $40 area, and on MCB, I will expect to see both MF/VWAP trending out with a ton of bearish divergences.
AMEX:BITOLong
by Tri-EET
3
Bitcoin is losing its control. Don't lose your own!Bitcoin continues to retreat from the historical highs reached in the March quarter of 2024, as discussed in many previous posts, minds and publications. In nowadays BTC is declining to new local lows as the macroeconomic situation in the global economy worsens and volatility (uncertainty) in the market as a whole increases. The technical picture indicates a breakout below the growth channel, within the boundaries of which BTC has rallied for the past year and a half. A further break below the 52-week SMA will highly likely intensify the sell-off.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by PandorraResearch
Quick Analysis on Early signs of $BTC CapitulationJust a hunch on $BTC. We bought ETF's on this last dip. IBKR only allows 10% crypto. May begin buying spot again as we sold close to top. First an explanation on a 4Hr #BTC chart broken down into 3 phases (Letters A - C) A The descending arrow shows $ Flow weakening. There were huge buys but sells were eating it up. That was a RED FLAG. We spoke about divergence and lessening buy volume for DAYS! Few warnings. It was eventually followed by #bitcoin selling pressure. ------- B $ Flow indicator is a laggard, we keep eyes on an investment's volume on our own, visual. In this case we're looking at the #Bitcoin volume. CRYPTOCAP:BTC had some buying but sells kept coming in. These were likely sellouts from leverage & shorts. Wont comment on Germany as spot #BTC is still irrelevant. ($ Flow was fine for spot and nowhere near as bad as futures, but CRYPTOCAP:BTC kept going down. Not sure what needs to be shown for people to realize that spot is IRRELEVANT until some time in the future.) ------- C 2nd CRYPTOCAP:BTC phase is almost done. Buys coming in and the sells are not as strong anymore. It needs a lil more time but #BTC MAY/COULD be capitulating. It holds 52kish weekly & monthly and we could see something nice. See the chart on #GOLD for the Cup and Handle breakout. Have a great weekend!!! (pls see profile for more info)
CME:BTC1!Long
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BTC looks okay, 1st phase pretty much complete, phase 2 nextTurned bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC during the beginning of May. Futures #BTC looks good but the volume is lacking a bit. RSI looks okay but not great. $ Flow is not that great either. Spot #Bitcoin = ditto. However, technically they look good, they are trading above their respective moving averages. What would seal the deal? HUGE volume breaking highs! -------------------------------- Not shown here, pls see profile for more info. Noticed an interesting weekly CRYPTOCAP:BTC pattern. Will speak on that later as the pattern will likely resolve months from now. Want to see what happens within the next couple months first. Spot #BTC hasn't proven it's better to chart vs futures #Bitcoin, doubt it will until it counts (meaning it'll change when things hit the fan). Current box is the best looking. We'll see what happens very soon. #crypto
CME:BTC1!Long
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
1
Opening (IRA): BITO July 19th 30 Covered Call... for a 26.12 debit. Comments: Re-upping after closing out my longer-dated covered call (which I had rolled all the way out to December). Selling the -30 delta call against long stock here. As before, will look to roll out the short call for duration at 50% max, collect the monthly dividend along the way ... . I'll also look at selling short put, assuming I can get in on weakness and with a resulting break even better than what I currently have on.
AMEX:BITOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opened (IRA): BITO April 19th 31 Covered Call... for a 27.54 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV at 97.9/81.9% and a monthly dividend to take advantage of. However, the monthly dividend has varied widely -- with the last two distributions paying .36 (February 8th) and .73 (March 8th) with an annual dividend of 8.72 (.73 average monthly) (31.7% annualized as a function of current price). I'm primarily looking to grab the April monthly here; anything additional above my break even will be gravy ... . In any event, the metrics: BPE/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 27.54 Max Profit (ex. dividend): 3.46 ($346) ROC at Max: 12.56%
AMEX:BITOLong
by NaughtyPines
1
$BTC Futures STILL better to chart vs SpotTweaked the CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart. It really needed updating. Fixed the colors too! #BTC is 2 weeks away from the end of what we called, phase 1. In my opinion, it's going to move SOON. #Bitcoin breakdown: The moving avg crossover, yellow circle, is bullish. Cyan circles show bullish signs; RSI above 50 Money Flow is above 0 ------------------------- Bonus post CRYPTOCAP:BTC derivatives vs spot - FINAL proof! (They are trading a lil closer than ever) Both #BTC RSI look identical but Futures turned bullish 1st. However, #Bitcoin $ Flow is a VERY different. Futures have been mostly NEGATIVE until yesterday! Spot has been mostly above 0 until recently!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Opening (IRA): BITO June 21st 24 Short Put... for a 1.82 credit. Comments: Adding a short put on weakness here to my covered call, which I'm sticking in with to grab the monthly divvy. I'm okay with being assigned additional shares, since the break even of the June 24 is below the cost basis of what I currently have on. Otherwise, I'm perfectly fine with doing my usual take profit at 50% of max. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 22.18 Max Profit: 1.82 ($182) ROC as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 8.21% ROC at 50% Max: 4.10%
AMEX:BITOLong
by NaughtyPines