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GBPCAD breakout or rejection? All eyes on 1.8850!GBPCAD is testing a major technical zone as macro and price catalysts align. Here's what traders need to know: Catalysts & Macro Drivers GBP : Supported by USD weakness (US shutdown, weak data), sticky UK inflation, and Bank of England caution. November’s UK budget looms as a key event. CAD : Under pressure from falling oil prices (oversupply/weak demand) and a dovish Bank of Canada. Further rate cuts are possible, especially if oil stays low. Technical Outlook Weekly chart : Strong impulsive rally past 61.8% Fibonacci (1.8310), with 1.9490 (78.6% Fib) as the next longer-term upside target. 4h chart : Ascending triangle with resistance at 1.8850. Breakout/close above 1.8850 confirms bullish momentum, with targets at 1.90 and then 1.93–1.95. RSI : Long-term RSI above 60 signals strength, but divergence is a risk factor. Watch for RSI reset or failure at highs. Trading Scenarios Bullish : Hold above 1.8850 for 3 sessions +, look for upside extension to 1.90/1.93/1.95. Bearish : Failure to break 1.8850 or drop below 1.8600 could trigger reversal to 1.84/1.81 support. Levels to Watch Key resistance: 1.8850, 1.9000, 1.9340, 1.9490 Key support: 1.8600, 1.8400, 1.8310 This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
GBPUSD: CABLE COILED FOR 1.36 EXPLOSION! Sterling Rally 🚀 GBPUSD: CABLE COILED FOR 1.36 EXPLOSION! Sterling Rally 📊 Current Price: 1.34036 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰ 📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days) 🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 1.3380 - 1.3420 📍 Stop Loss: 1.3340 🛑 Target 1: 1.3480 🎯 Target 2: 1.3550 🚀 🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 1.3440 - 1.3480 📍 Stop Loss: 1.3520 🛑 Target 1: 1.3350 🎯 Target 2: 1.3280 📉 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN 📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS: RSI (14): 65.3 ⚡ Sterling Strength Zone Bollinger Bands: Squeezing for Move 🔥 VWAP: 1.3395 - Critical Pivot 💪 EMA 50: 1.3360 ✅ Bullish Crossover Volume: Accumulation Pattern 📊 🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS: Elliott Wave: Wave 3 Building Steam 🌊 Fibonacci Extension: 1.3650 Target 🎯 🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS: Bullish Butterfly at 1.3350 ✨ ABCD Completion to 1.3520 🔄 ⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks) 🚀 BULLISH TARGETS: Psychological: 1.3600 🏆 Weekly Target: 1.3650 🌙 Gann Square: 1.3700 ⭐ 📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION: Weekly Support: 1.3250 ⚠️ Critical Level: 1.3150 🚨 🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE: Trend: Bullish Flag Formation 💪 Momentum: Coiling Energy 🔥 Wyckoff Phase: Spring Complete 📈 Ichimoku: Cloud Breakout Pending 🟢 ⚡ CABLE VOLATILITY SETUP: Compression Zone: 1.3350-1.3450 🎢 Breakout Catalyst: BoE Data 💥 Volatility Spike: Expected Above 1.3480 📈 🏛️ UK FUNDAMENTALS: BoE Policy Hawkish Stance 🏦 GDP Growth Resilient Data 📊 Inflation Supporting GBP 📈 Political Stability Improving 🇬🇧 ⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT: Max Risk per Trade: 60 pips 🛡️ R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:2.5 ⚖️ London Open: High Impact 📏 🔥 CRITICAL BREAKOUT LEVELS: Bull Trigger: 1.3480 clean break 💥 Support Zone: 1.3380 | 1.3340 | 1.3300 🛡️ Resistance: 1.3480 | 1.3550 | 1.3600 🚧 📈 STERLING STRENGTH: vs USD: Momentum Building 💪 vs EUR: Outperforming 🔥 Cross Pairs: Bullish Flow 🌊 🎯 FINAL VERDICT: CABLE ready for EXPLOSIVE 1.36 MOVE! 🚀 Sterling coiled like a spring! 💎 Perfect storm brewing for breakout! ⛈️ Trade Management: Buy dips to 1.3380 💰 Key Level: 1.3480 breakout crucial! 🔑 --- ⚠️ Disclaimer: FX trading carries substantial risk. Manage positions carefully. Educational content only. For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 🔔 Follow Cable Updates | 💬 Share Your Sterling Strategy Below
by sunya
EURUSD: 1.18 FORTRESS ATTACK! Dollar Weakness Exposed 🚀 EURUSD: 1.18 FORTRESS ATTACK! Dollar Weakness Exposed 📊 Current Price: 1.17020 | Date: Sept 27, 2025 ⏰ 📈 INTRADAY TRADING SETUPS (Next 5 Days) 🎯 BULLISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 1.1680 - 1.1710 📍 Stop Loss: 1.1650 🛑 Target 1: 1.1750 🎯 Target 2: 1.1790 🚀 🎯 BEARISH SCENARIO Entry Zone: 1.1720 - 1.1750 📍 Stop Loss: 1.1780 🛑 Target 1: 1.1650 🎯 Target 2: 1.1600 📉 🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN 📊 KEY INDICATORS STATUS: RSI (14): 62.1 ⚡ Euro Strength Building Bollinger Bands: Expansion Mode 🔥 VWAP: 1.1695 - Dynamic Support 💪 EMA 20: 1.1675 ✅ Bullish Momentum Volume: Institutional Flow Rising 📊 🌊 WAVE ANALYSIS: Elliott Wave: Wave C Impulse Active 🌊 Fibonacci Target: 1.1850 (127.2%) 🎯 🔄 HARMONIC PATTERNS: Bullish Gartley at 1.1660 Support ✨ Cypher PRZ targeting 1.1780 🔄 ⚖️ SWING TRADING OUTLOOK (1-4 Weeks) 🚀 BULLISH TARGETS: Psychological: 1.1800 🏆 Weekly Resistance: 1.1850 🌙 Gann Level: 1.1875 ⭐ 📉 BEARISH INVALIDATION: Weekly Support: 1.1600 ⚠️ Critical Break: 1.1550 🚨 🎭 MARKET STRUCTURE: Trend: Ascending Channel 💪 Momentum: Dollar Weakness 🔥 Wyckoff Phase: Markup Phase 📈 Ichimoku: Bullish Cloud Break 🟢 🏰 1.18 FORTRESS BATTLE: Key Resistance: 1.1780-1.1800 ⚔️ Volume Confirmation: Needed Above 1.1750 💥 Breakout Target: 1.1850 Major Level 🔓 ⚡ RISK MANAGEMENT: Max Risk per Trade: 50 pips 🛡️ R:R Ratio: Minimum 1:2 ⚖️ London/NY Sessions: Prime Time 📏 🌍 CENTRAL BANK DYNAMICS: ECB Policy Divergence Bullish 🏛️ Fed Dovishness Supporting EUR 📈 Dollar Index Weakness Continues 💵 Rate Differential Narrowing 📊 🔥 CRITICAL LEVELS: Breakout: 1.1750 decisive close 💥 Support: 1.1680 | 1.1650 | 1.1620 🛡️ Resistance: 1.1750 | 1.1780 | 1.1800 🚧 📈 DXY CORRELATION: Dollar Index: Bearish Divergence 📉 EUR Strength: Independent Rally 💪 Cross-Currency: Bullish Flow 🔄 🎯 FINAL VERDICT: EURUSD storming 1.18 RESISTANCE! 🚀 Dollar weakness = Euro rocket fuel! 💎 Multi-timeframe bullish alignment! 📈 Trade Management: Scale in above 1.1680 💰 Breakout Alert: Watch 1.1750 hold! 🔔 --- ⚠️ Disclaimer: FX trading involves significant risk. Use proper position sizing. Educational analysis only. For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade 🔔 Follow FX Market Updates | 💬 What's Your 1.18 Target Timeline?
Long
by sunya
Bank of England holds rates, British Pound slipsThe Bank of England stayed on the sidelines at today's meeting, maintaining interest rates at 4.0%. This followed a quarter-point cut in August. The decision was anticipated by the markets and the British pound is showing limited movement. The 7-2 vote saw two members vote for a quarter-point cut. Last month's decision to lower rates was decided by a 5-4 vote and took an unprecedented two rounds. The split votes reflect dissension within the BoE with regard to the Bank's future monetary policy. The BoE has been trying to balance rising inflation, which supports holding rates, with the slowdown in the jobs market, which is putting pressure on the central bank to lower rates and ease economic conditions. The BoE cannot ignore inflation, which rose to 3.8% in August, close to double the BoE's target of 2%. Unless inflation slows markedly, the BoE may have to wait until 2026 to lower rates. The Federal Reserve lowered rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday. The decision, which was widely expected, was the first rate cut since December 2024. The rate statement cited the cooling labor market as the main reason behind the rate cut. In his press conference, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his concern about the deteriorating job market and said that the risk of higher and more persistent inflation has eased. Perhaps the highlight of the meeting was the 'dot plot', which charts the expected rate path of members who participated at the meeting. The dot plot indicated that most members expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year, which means the Fed is in a very dovish mood.
by OANDA
GBPUSD at make or break level ahead of a split BOEThe BOE faces a pivotal moment as it prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision. With MPC members split between hawkish concerns about stubborn inflation and dovish worries over a weakening job market, expectations are swirling about the path forward. Will the BOE signal a pause after this cut, or will inflation surprises force a more cautious, hawkish stance going into the end of the year? Traders are watching for clues in the updated forecasts, as even a minor shift could spark major volatility in GBP/USD. If the BOE sounds hawkish—maybe they raise their inflation forecasts, or the vote split shows strong resistance to further cuts, or they signal a pause in easing—then GBPUSD might have found a bottom for now. On the flip side, if the BOE puts more emphasis on economic risks, reduces its GDP outlook, or if the vote split shows a strong push for even bigger cuts, then the pound could come under pressure. On the charts, Cable is clinging to 1.3375, with a potential developing head and shoulders pattern threatening a deeper move lower if the neckline breaks. Will the upcoming BOE decision be the make-or-break catalyst for the pound? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
Will BoE's Plan to Rundown QT Impact Cable (GBP/USD)Direct Impact: The QT slowdown itself is a small, modestly GBP-positive factor. It may provide a slight underpinning of support. If the BoE delivers the QT slowdown as expected and it's framed as a technical move, its impact will likely be overshadowed by the simultaneous interest rate decisions and guidance from both the BoE and the Fed. If you are looking to trade this, don't trade the QT headline in isolation. Trade the broader package of BoE communication and the Fed's decision. A "hawkish hold" from the BoE (holding rates but signaling they stay high for longer) combined with a "dovish" Fed could send GBP/USD meaningfully higher. The QT slowdown would be a minor supporting actor in that drama. (Unless of course the FED holds rates) In short: Expect a potential small, brief pop for GBP on the QT news, but the real moves will be dictated by the interest rate decisions and forward guidance from both sides of the Atlantic. If BoE and FED hold, it could be a great asymmetric short end to the week!
by PointBreak42
British pound hits two-month high, UK job dataThe British pound has started the new trading week in positive territory. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3591, up 0.26% on the day. Earlier, the pound hit a daily high of 1.3620, its highest level since July 10. The UK releases employment data on Tuesday. Claimant counts is expected to jump to 20.3 thousand in August, after a rare decline in July which saw claimant counts decline by 6.2 thousand. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.7% for a third straight time, its highest level in four years. Wage growth including bonuses is expected to rise to 4.7%, up from 4.6% in the previous release, which was the lowest pace in nine months. It's a busy week in the UK, with the inflation report on Wednesday and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. The BoE is expected to maintain rates at 4.0% after last month's narrow 5-4 decision to lower rates. Governor Bailey has said rates would move "downwards gradually over time" but hasn't provided any details as to the timing or extent of cuts. The UK may have already entered stagflation, which is a toxic mix of persistently high inflation, weak growth and rising unemployment. This presents a major headache for the BoE, as weak growth supports a rate cut while high inflation could get worse if the BoE reduces rates. The central bank is hesitant to lower rates with inflation close to 4%, but may have to cut before the end of the year if the labor market continues to deteriorate. Tuesday's job report is unlikely to change minds at the BoE, which is expected to hold rates. Still, it could be a factor in the November rate decision. GBPUSD has pushed above resistance at 1.3564 and is testing 1.3589 Above, there is resistance at 1.3605 There is support at 1.3548
by OANDA
GU, UJ & Gold: Calm Before the Storm | Fed, BoJ, BoE AheadThe markets have been stuck in ranges for weeks, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and Gold all moving sideways. In this video, I share a clear perspective on why that’s happening and what could finally trigger a breakout. Here’s what you’ll gain: ✅A simple breakdown of the range structures on GBPUSD, USDJPY, and Gold. ✅The key economic events next week that could shake the market (Fed, BoJ, BoE, UK CPI & labour data). ✅Likely breakout scenarios and the triggers to watch. ✅How to avoid getting trapped while the price is still consolidating. This is the “calm before the storm” phase, and knowing how to position yourself ahead of it could make all the difference. 👉 Drop a comment with the pair you’re watching most closely. Trade smart, trade consciously. Disclaimer: Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice, always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
by darcsherry
British GDP slows to 0%, pound edges lowerThe British pound is slightly lower on Friday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3541, down 0.22% on the day. UK GDP slowed in July, posting zero growth month-to month. This was down from the 0.4% gain in June and matched the market estimate. Services and construction were higher but were offset by a decrease in manufacturing. In the three months to July, GDP eased to 0.2%, down from 0.3% and below the market estimate of 0.2%. The UK economy has been losing steam - after a strong gain of 0.7% in the first quarter, GDP eased to 0.3% in Q2 and all signs point to negative growth in the second half of 2025. The weakening economy supports the case for the Bank of England to lower rates, but rising inflation is making it harder for the BoE to ease policy. In July, consumer inflation rose to 3.8%, higher than expected. The BoE has projected that inflation will rise to a peak of 4% in September, double the BoE's target of 2%. The BoE meets on September 18 and is expected to hold rates, after cutting rates in August to 4.0%. At that meeting, the nine-member monetary policy committee voted 5-4 to lower rates. Governor Bailey has said that the BoE will take a "gradual and careful" approach to rate cuts. The November 6 meeting will be very significant, coming just ahead of the government's budget. There was a lot of attention paid to Thursday's US CPI report, as inflation rose to 2.9% y/y, up from 2.7% and in line with expectations. Overshadowed by the CPI release was unemployment claims which jumped to 267 thousand in the first week of September, up sharply from 236 thousand in the prior release and well above the market estimate of 235 thousand. This was the highest number of claims since October 2021 and is another sign of a deteriorating labour market. GBPUSD has pushed below support at 1.3563 and is testing support at 1.3543. Below, there is support at 1.3524 There is resistance at 1.3582 and 1.3602
by OANDA
Swiss CPI declines, will SNB revert to negative rates?The Swiss franc has edged lower on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8052, down 0.13% on the day. Swiss inflation declined in August for the first time since January. CPI slipped 0.1%, following the July reading of zero and the market estimate of zero. Yearly, CPI rose 0.2%, unchanged from July and in line with the market estimate. The soft inflation report could support the case for the Swiss National Bank to return to negative interest rates. The SNB had a negative rate policy in effect for eight consecutive years until 2022, when high inflation forced the bank to sharply tighten policy. The markets widely expect the SNB to hold rates at this month's meeting, but if inflation continues to sag, there will be pressure on the central bank to lower rates. SNB President Martin Schlegel has stressed in the past that the central bank could revert back to negative rates if necessary but would try to avoid doing so since it causes difficulties for businesses and consumers. The SNB is also keeping a close eye on the value of the Swiss franc. The Swiss currency has soared against the US dollar, gaining 11.3% since the start of the year. In June, USD/CHF fell below the psychologically significant 0.80 level for the first time 2011. The central bank does not want the franc to continue appreciating, since it means that Swiss exports are more expensive and thus less competitive. US tariffs have dealt a blow to the export-reliant Swiss economy. Switzerland has had to absorb US tariffs of 39% on most goods, which has put the country at a serious disadvantage against the neighboring European Union, which faces tariffs of only 15% on most goods. The USUSD/CHF is testing resistance at 0.8045. Next, there is resistance at 0.8054 and 0.8064. 0.8035 and 0.8026 are providing support
by OANDA
Will The Upcoming US Labor Data Keep The Pressure On The Pound?Fundamental approach: - The Pound was mildly softer this week amid firmer US data impulses and pre-NFP caution, while UK growth signals from Aug PMIs offered only limited support to the Pound. - UK Services PMI accelerated to 53.6 in Aug, the fastest in a year, hinting at resilient activity but with persistent employment softness and sticky price pressures, tempering BoE easing bets only modestly. - On the US side, expectations around ISM prints and Friday’s payrolls supported the US dollar, fostering two‑way but USD‑tilted flows. - Looking ahead, GBPUSD could remain range‑bound but potentially break on US NFP and ISM Services; strong US labor and services data may buoy US dollar, while a downside surprise in data could lift the Pound. Technical approach: - GBPUSD printed an engulfing candle, breaking the range of 1.3400-1.3580 to the downside and closing below both EMAs, indicating a short-term shift to bearish momentum. - If GBPUSD remains below the resistance at 1.3400 and both EMAs, the price may plunge and retest the following support at 1.3175. - On the contrary, closing above both EMAs may prompt a recovery to retest the following resistance at 1.3580. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
FTSE100 surges to records despite CPI surprise but can it last?The FTSE 100 has surged to a new all-time high, defying expectations after UK inflation surprised to the upside at 3.8%. This resilience can be attributed to renewed global interest in undervalued UK stocks, particularly defensives, as investors anticipate a potential end to the BOE’s easing cycle in 2025 due to persistent price pressures. The market remains sensitive to global cues, with attention turning to the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium. A more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve could reinforce risk aversion and further boost the FTSE’s appeal as a relative safe haven, while a dovish Fed may see flows return to US equities, posing a conditional risk to the FTSE’s rally. From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100’s recent breakout places immediate focus on the 9,367–9,400 resistance zone, which marks the upper boundary of the latest upward channel. A sustained daily close above 9,400 could open the door to further upside, targeting the psychological 9,500 level next. On the downside, initial support is seen at 9,200, with a break below there potentially exposing the 9,050–9,000 area for a deeper pullback. Traders should watch for confirmation of direction at these levels, as volatility may increase around key macro events. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:UK100Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
EUR/USD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# EUR/USD Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Analysis Asset Class: EUR/USD (Euro vs US Dollar) Current Price: 1.16869 (as of August 30, 2025, 1:00 AM UTC+4) Analysis Date: August 31, 2025 Market Context: Post-Jackson Hole consolidation phase with emerging bullish momentum Executive Summary The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.16869, showing signs of consolidation following recent bullish momentum sparked by Fed Chair Powell's dovish tone at Jackson Hole. Our comprehensive multi-dimensional technical analysis reveals a critical juncture where multiple analytical frameworks converge, presenting compelling opportunities for both intraday scalping and swing trading strategies. The analysis incorporates advanced pattern recognition, wave theory, harmonic patterns, and momentum indicators to provide actionable trading insights for the world's most traded currency pair. Current Market Landscape & Fundamental Context Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole helped EURUSD bulls turn what was until then a weak performance into another weekly gain, marking a significant shift in market sentiment. The pair has demonstrated resilience despite ongoing economic uncertainties, with traders positioning for potential Federal Reserve policy adjustments. Recent Elliott Wave analysis indicates an ongoing five-wave impulse structure from the August 1, 2025 low, with wave 1 peaking at 1.173, followed by a wave 2 pullback that concluded at 1.157. This structure suggests the pair is currently developing within a larger bullish framework, though short-term consolidation remains likely. Market forecasters note that the 1.1650 level aligns with the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement drawn from the April high of 1.1900 to the July low near 1.1500, creating a significant resistance zone that will be crucial for determining the pair's next major directional move. Multi-Timeframe Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Count Structure Long-term Perspective (Monthly/Weekly): Grand Supercycle: Currently in corrective Wave (B) from 2008 lows Cycle Wave: Developing five-wave impulse from 2022 parity lows Primary Wave: Wave III of larger degree cycle in progress Intermediate Count: Currently in Wave (3) of III with subdivisions Medium-term Count (Daily/4H): From the August 1, 2025 low at 1.157, the pair has been developing a five-wave impulse structure: Wave 1: Completed at 1.173 (160 pips) Wave 2: Expanded Flat correction to 1.157 (38.2% retracement) Wave 3: Currently in progress, targeting 1.180-1.185 zone Wave 4: Expected pullback to 1.170-1.165 range Wave 5: Ultimate target 1.190-1.200 region Short-term Analysis (1H/15M): EURUSD is currently developing an intraday three-wave pullback from recent highs, with ideal support area at 1.16146-1.15521 using Equal Legs technique. Elliott Wave Targets & Projections Immediate Targets: Wave 3 Extension: 1.180-1.185 (1.618 x Wave 1) Secondary Target: 1.188-1.192 (2.618 x Wave 1) Major Resistance: 1.200-1.205 (Wave equality zone) Support Levels (Wave 4 Correction): Primary Support: 1.168-1.170 (23.6% retracement) Secondary Support: 1.164-1.166 (38.2% retracement) Critical Support: 1.160-1.162 (50% retracement) Harmonic Pattern Analysis & Fibonacci Framework Active Harmonic Formations 1. Bullish Gartley Pattern (4H-Daily Timeframe) X to A Leg: 1.1900 to 1.1500 (400 pips decline) A to B Retracement: 61.8% at 1.1747 B to C Projection: 78.6% of AB at 1.1553 Completion Zone (D): 1.1589-1.1620 (78.6% XA retracement) Status: Pattern completed, currently in markup phase 2. Potential Bullish Bat Pattern (Daily-Weekly) Formation Stage: B to C leg development Critical Level: 1.1650 (B point validation) Target Completion: 1.1520-1.1480 zone (88.6% XA) Risk Assessment: Moderate probability (60%) 3. Crab Pattern Alert (Higher Timeframes) Monitoring Level: Break below 1.1480 could trigger deeper Crab formation Completion Zone: 1.1380-1.1320 (161.8% XA extension) Strategic Implication: Major accumulation zone if activated Fibonacci Confluence Analysis Key Fibonacci Levels: 38.2% Retracement: 1.1652 (April-July range) - Current resistance 50% Retracement: 1.1700 (Major resistance confluence) 61.8% Golden Ratio: 1.1748 (Strong resistance barrier) 78.6% Level: 1.1796 (Ultimate bull target) Extension Targets: 127.2% Extension: 1.1820 (From August correction) 161.8% Extension: 1.1895 (Major projection target) 200% Extension: 1.1965 (Extreme bull scenario) Wyckoff Theory Market Structure Analysis Current Market Phase Assessment Phase Identification: Early Markup Phase (Spring Test Completed) Wyckoff Characteristics Observed: 1. Accumulation Completed: May-July 2025 range (1.1500-1.1650) 2. Spring Test: August 1st low at 1.1570 (successful test) 3. Sign of Strength (SOS): August 5-8 rally to 1.1730 4. Last Point of Support (LPS): August 15-20 pullback to 1.1580 5. Current Phase: Early markup with backing and filling Volume Analysis: Accumulation Phase: Declining volume on pullbacks, expanding on rallies Markup Confirmation: Volume expansion above 1.1650 resistance required Distribution Warning: Watch for climactic volume at 1.1800+ levels Wyckoff Price Targets: Initial Objective: 1.1800-1.1850 (measured move from accumulation range) Secondary Target: 1.1950-1.2000 (full range projection) Long-term Goal: 1.2200-1.2300 (major Wyckoff projection) W.D. Gann Theory & Sacred Geometry Analysis Gann Square of 9 Analysis Current Position: 1.16869 sits near critical Gann level Key Gann Levels: Natural Support: 1.1600 (perfect square root level) Resistance: 1.1700 (next major Gann square) Critical Resistance: 1.1881 (major Gann confluence) Ultimate Target: 1.2100 (next significant square level) Gann Time Theory & Cycles Active Time Cycles: 90-Day Cycle: Due September 15, 2025 (±3 days) Seasonal Tendency: September typically bearish for EUR/USD Major Time Square: October 12, 2025 (144-day cycle) Gann Angles Analysis: 1x1 Support Angle: Rising at 1.1620 (from August lows) 2x1 Resistance: 1.1720 (dynamic resistance line) 1x2 Support: 1.1580 (major support angle) 4x1 Resistance: 1.1840 (long-term target angle) Price-Time Balance Current Assessment: Price slightly ahead of time (bullish imbalance) Equilibrium Zone: 1.1650-1.1680 (time-price balance) Acceleration Level: Break above 1.1720 suggests time-price momentum shift Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud Analysis Current Ichimoku Structure Tenkan-sen (9): 1.1675 (immediate dynamic support) Kijun-sen (26): 1.1635 (medium-term trend indicator) Senkou Span A: 1.1655 (near-term cloud boundary) Senkou Span B: 1.1590 (strong cloud support) Chikou Span: Trading above price 26 periods ago (bullish signal) Ichimoku Signals & Interpretation Current Status: Price above cloud (bullish environment) Key Signals: 1. TK Cross: Tenkan above Kijun (bullish short-term momentum) 2. Cloud Color: Green cloud ahead (bullish bias continues) 3. Price vs Cloud: Above cloud (trend confirmation) 4. Chikou Span: Clear of historical prices (momentum confirmation) Ichimoku Targets: Immediate Resistance: Tenkan-sen at 1.1675 Cloud Resistance: 1.1700-1.1720 (future cloud thickness) Major Target: 1.1800+ (cloud projection upward) Support Levels: Immediate: Kijun-sen at 1.1635 Strong Support: Cloud base at 1.1590-1.1600 Critical Level: 1.1570 (cloud break would turn bearish) Technical Indicators Deep Dive Relative Strength Index (RSI) Analysis Multi-Timeframe RSI Status: Daily RSI: 58.5 (Neutral-bullish zone) 4H RSI: 62.3 (Approaching overbought but sustainable) 1H RSI: 45.2 (Oversold on recent pullback - buying opportunity) RSI Signals & Divergences: Bullish Divergence: Spotted on 4H chart (price lows vs RSI lows) Support Level: RSI 50 holding as dynamic support Resistance Zone: 70 level will indicate overbought condition RSI Trading Levels: Buy Signal: RSI below 40 on hourly charts Sell Signal: RSI above 75 on daily timeframe Trend Confirmation: RSI above 60 confirms bullish trend Bollinger Bands (BB) Volatility Analysis Current Band Position: Upper Band: 1.1720 (immediate resistance) Middle Band (SMA 20): 1.1655 (dynamic support) Lower Band: 1.1590 (strong support) Band Analysis: Current Position: Upper third of bands (bullish bias) Bandwidth: Expanding after recent contraction (volatility increase) Band Walk: Potential for upper band walk if 1.1680 breaks Bollinger Band Strategies: Squeeze Play: Completed - expecting volatility expansion Band Bounce: Look for bounces off middle band (1.1655) Breakout Setup: Upper band break targets 1.1750+ Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Analysis Multi-Session VWAP Levels: Daily VWAP: 1.1668 (immediate pivot) Weekly VWAP: 1.1642 (medium-term anchor) Monthly VWAP: 1.1595 (major support) VWAP Trading Signals: Above VWAP: Bullish institutional sentiment VWAP Reclaim: 1.1668 break confirms bullish continuation Volume Profile: Heavy volume at 1.1640-1.1660 (support zone) Moving Average Convergence Analysis Simple Moving Averages: SMA 20: 1.1655 (immediate support) SMA 50: 1.1618 (medium-term support) SMA 100: 1.1585 (long-term support trend) SMA 200: 1.1542 (major trend indicator) Exponential Moving Averages: EMA 12: 1.1672 (short-term trend) EMA 26: 1.1651 (MACD baseline) EMA 50: 1.1628 (medium-term trend) Moving Average Signals: Golden Cross Watch: EMA 12 crossing above EMA 26 (bullish) Support Confluence: Multiple MAs clustering at 1.1620-1.1650 Resistance Zone: 1.1680-1.1700 (MA resistance cluster) Advanced Candlestick Pattern Recognition Recent Candlestick Formations Weekly Chart Patterns: 1. Hammer Formation (Week of August 26) - Bullish reversal signal 2. Doji Sequence (Previous weeks) - Indecision resolved to upside 3. Bullish Engulfing potential for current week Daily Chart Patterns: 1. Three White Soldiers (August 5-7) - Strong bullish momentum 2. Flag Pattern (August 15-20) - Consolidation before continuation 3. Morning Star formation developing (August 28-30) 4-Hour Chart Signals: 1. Bull Flag Breakout - Target 1.1750 2. Ascending Triangle - Apex at 1.1680 3. Cup and Handle pattern completing Candlestick Strategy Integration Reversal Patterns to Watch: Evening Star at 1.1720+ (bearish reversal warning) Shooting Star above 1.1700 (short-term top signal) Hanging Man at current levels (continuation vs reversal) Continuation Patterns: Bullish Flag break above 1.1680 (measured move to 1.1750) Pennant formation resolution (typically bullish in uptrend) Rising Three Methods (bullish continuation pattern) Market Structure & Key Levels Critical Support & Resistance Framework Major Resistance Levels: 1. 1.1680-1.1690: Immediate resistance (Bollinger upper band + previous highs) 2. 1.1720-1.1730: Intermediate resistance (August highs + Gann angle) 3. 1.1750-1.1760: Major resistance (Multiple harmonic confluences) 4. 1.1800-1.1820: Significant resistance (Fibonacci extensions + Wyckoff target) 5. 1.1880-1.1900: Ultimate resistance (April highs + major Gann level) Critical Support Levels: 1. 1.1650-1.1660: Immediate support (VWAP + Fibonacci 38.2%) 2. 1.1620-1.1635: Intermediate support (Kijun-sen + SMA cluster) 3. 1.1590-1.1600: Major support (Cloud base + Gann square) 4. 1.1570-1.1580: Critical support (Elliott Wave invalidation) 5. 1.1520-1.1540: Ultimate support (Harmonic completion + major lows) Market Structure Analysis Current Structure: Higher highs and higher lows since August 1 Trend Definition: Bullish on all timeframes above 1.1580 Structure Break: Below 1.1570 would signal trend reversal Impulse vs Corrective: Currently in impulsive bullish phase Comprehensive Trading Strategies Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts) # Strategy 1: Bollinger Band Bounce (Success Rate: 65%) Setup Requirements: - Price approaching middle Bollinger Band (1.1655) - RSI < 45 on 1H chart - Volume above average on approach Entry Criteria: Long Entry: 1.1650-1.1658 (scale in approach) Stop Loss: 1.1635 (below key support) Target 1: 1.1680 (Upper Bollinger Band) Target 2: 1.1720 (Previous resistance) Risk-Reward: 1:2.5 # Strategy 2: Breakout Trading (Success Rate: 70%) Bullish Breakout: Entry: Break above 1.1680 with volume confirmation Stop Loss: 1.1665 (back below breakout level) Target 1: 1.1720 (measured move) Target 2: 1.1750 (harmonic target) Target 3: 1.1800 (major resistance) Bearish Breakout: Entry: Break below 1.1635 with volume Stop Loss: 1.1655 (failed breakdown) Target 1: 1.1600 (immediate support) Target 2: 1.1570 (major support) # Strategy 3: RSI Divergence Play (Success Rate: 75%) Setup: RSI divergence on 1H-4H timeframes Entry: Confirmation candle after divergence spotted Management: Trail stops below key swing lows/highs Targets: Previous swing extremes Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts) # Primary Swing Setup: Elliott Wave Continuation Market Context: Currently in Wave 3 of larger degree impulse Long Position Framework: Accumulation Zone: 1.1620-1.1660 (on any pullbacks) Entry Trigger: Hold above 1.1635 with bullish momentum Stop Loss: 1.1570 (Elliott Wave invalidation) Target 1: 1.1750-1.1800 (Wave 3 extension) Target 2: 1.1850-1.1900 (Wave 3 completion) Ultimate Target: 1.1950-1.2000 (Wave 5 projection) Position Size: 2% account risk Time Horizon: 4-8 weeks Risk Management: Initial Risk: 30-50 pips (tight stops on entries) Position Scaling: Add on pullbacks to 1.1640-1.1650 Profit Taking: 25% at Target 1, 50% at Target 2, 25% runner Trailing Stops: Implement after 1:1 risk-reward achieved # Alternative Swing Setup: Range Trading If Elliott Wave Fails: Range: 1.1570-1.1720 (broad consolidation range) Buy Zone: 1.1570-1.1600 (range lows with confirmation) Sell Zone: 1.1680-1.1720 (range highs with reversal signals) Stop Loss: Outside range boundaries Strategy: Fade extremes, take profits at opposite boundaries Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025) Monday September 2: Labor Day Impact Expected Scenario: Thin liquidity due to US holiday Strategy: Avoid major positions, focus on range trading Key Levels: 1.1650-1.1680 range likely Risk: Potential for fake breakouts due to low volume Tuesday September 3: ISM Manufacturing PMI Market Focus: US economic data release (10:00 AM ET) Strategy: Position ahead of data if clear setup exists Bullish Scenario: Weak PMI data (EUR/USD rally potential) Bearish Scenario: Strong PMI data (USD strength) Key Level: 1.1670 break determines direction Wednesday September 4: ECB Rate Decision Watch Major Event: ECB policy meeting preparation Strategy: Volatility expansion expected Pre-Event: Look for coiling patterns, reduced ranges Post-Event: Breakout trading strategies Risk Management: Reduce position sizes before announcement Thursday September 5: US Initial Claims + Services PMI Technical Focus: Mid-week momentum continuation Morning Strategy: European session range trading Afternoon Strategy: US data reaction plays Key Confluence: 1.1680 resistance test likely Friday September 6: Non-Farm Payrolls Preparation Week-End Positioning: Major data preparation Strategy: Reduce risk ahead of weekend Technical Focus: Weekly close positioning Target: Weekly close above 1.1660 (bullish) or below 1.1640 (bearish) Advanced Pattern Recognition Alerts Bull Trap Scenarios Setup 1: False Breakout Above 1.1720 Warning Signs: Low volume breakout, immediate reversal Response: Short on break back below 1.1700 Target: 1.1650-1.1620 (measured move down) Stop Loss: Above 1.1730 (failed trap) Setup 2: Failed Elliott Wave Extension Scenario: Wave 3 fails to extend beyond 1.1750 Implication: Possible complex Wave 2 still developing Strategy: Wait for deeper pullback to 1.1600 area Bear Trap Alerts Setup 1: False Break Below 1.1635 Characteristics: High volume break, quick recovery Response: Long on reclaim of 1.1640-1.1645 Target: 1.1680-1.1700 (trapped bears covering) Confirmation: RSI bullish divergence required Setup 2: Harmonic Pattern Failure Scenario: Break below harmonic support at 1.1590 Response: Wait for retest and rejection Strategy: Strong long opportunity if support holds on retest Risk Management & Position Sizing Framework Account Risk Allocation Single Trade Risk: Maximum 1% for intraday, 2% for swing trades Currency Exposure: Total EUR/USD exposure not exceeding 5% of account Correlation Risk: Monitor EUR/GBP, GBP/USD correlations News Risk: Reduce positions by 50% ahead of major events Stop Loss Methodology Technical Stops: Support/Resistance: 10-15 pips beyond key levels Moving Average: Below/above significant MA levels Volatility-Based: 1.5x Average True Range (ATR) Time-Based Stops: Intraday: Exit if no progress within 4-6 hours Swing: Exit if no progress within 5 trading days Event Risk: Flat before major announcements unless specifically trading the event Profit Taking Protocols Scaled Exit Strategy: 1. 25% at 1:1 Risk-Reward (secure break-even) 2. 50% at 1:2 Risk-Reward (lock in profits) 3. 25% runner with trailing stop (capture trends) Trailing Stop Guidelines: Activate: After reaching 1:1 risk-reward Method: Trail below/above previous swing lows/highs Minimum Trail: 15 pips for intraday, 30 pips for swing Market Psychology & Sentiment Analysis Current Sentiment Indicators Positioning Data: COT Report: Large speculators slightly long EUR Retail Sentiment: 60% long EUR/USD (contrarian bearish) Institutional Flow: Mixed signals, slight USD weakness Fear & Greed Indicators: VIX Level: Moderate (supportive of risk-on) Currency Vol: EUR/USD implied volatility declining Safe Haven Demand: USD demand moderating Psychological Price Levels Major Round Numbers: 1.1600: Psychological support (previous resistance) 1.1700: Major psychological resistance 1.1800: Significant psychological barrier 1.2000: Major psychological milestone (parity with 2020 levels) External Factors & Macroeconomic Context Central Bank Policy Divergence Federal Reserve: - Current stance: Data-dependent, potential pause in tightening - Market expectations: 25bps cut possibility in Q4 2025 - Key speakers: Watch for Powell, Williams, and other Fed officials European Central Bank: - Current stance: Gradual normalization continues - Inflation target: Progress toward 2% target ongoing - Policy differential: EUR benefits from relative hawkishness Geopolitical Risk Factors European Union: - Energy security concerns monitoring required - Political stability in major EU economies - Brexit-related trade impacts on EUR sentiment Global Factors: - China economic data impacts on risk sentiment - Commodity price fluctuations affecting EUR - Global supply chain normalization supporting EUR Economic Calendar Priority Events High Impact EUR Events: - ECB Rate Decisions and Press Conferences - Eurozone CPI and Core CPI readings - German IFO Business Climate and ZEW indices - European PMI manufacturing and services data High Impact USD Events: - Federal Reserve policy meetings and minutes - US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate - US CPI and Core CPI inflation readings - US GDP and consumer confidence indicators Technology Integration & Automation Automated Alert Systems Price Alerts: Breakout Levels: 1.1680, 1.1720, 1.1635, 1.1600 Support/Resistance: All major levels identified Pattern Completion: Harmonic pattern targets Elliott Wave: Wave completion and invalidation levels Indicator Alerts: RSI: Oversold (<30) and Overbought (>70) conditions Bollinger Bands: Band squeeze and expansion signals MACD: Signal line crosses and divergences Volume: Unusual volume spikes (2x average) Trading Platform Integration TradingView Setup: Multi-timeframe dashboard: 15M, 1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly Custom indicators: Harmonic scanner, Elliott Wave tools Alert integration: Mobile and email notifications Backtesting: Strategy performance validation MetaTrader Integration: Expert Advisor: Automated entry/exit based on confluences Risk Management: Position sizing and stop-loss automation News Integration: Economic calendar with impact levels Statistics Tracking: Trade performance analytics Advanced Strategy Combinations Multi-Confluence Entry System Tier 1 Signals (Highest Probability): - Elliott Wave + Harmonic Pattern + RSI Divergence - Wyckoff accumulation + Gann support + Volume confirmation - Ichimoku bullish signals + Candlestick reversal patterns Tier 2 Signals (Moderate Probability): - Fibonacci confluence + Moving average support - Bollinger Band bounce + VWAP reclaim - Chart pattern breakout + momentum confirmation Tier 3 Signals (Lower Probability): - Single indicator signals without confluence - Counter-trend trades without strong reversal signals - News-based trades without technical confirmation Scenario Planning & Contingency Strategies Scenario 1: Strong Bull Market (40% Probability) Trigger: Break above 1.1720 with strong volume Targets: 1.1800, 1.1880, 1.1950 Strategy: Trend following, add on pullbacks Risk: Overbought conditions, potential corrections Scenario 2: Range-Bound Market (35% Probability) Parameters: 1.1570-1.1720 trading range Strategy: Fade extremes, take profits at boundaries Duration: 4-6 weeks potential Risk: False breakouts, whipsaw price action Scenario 3: Bear Market Resumption (25% Probability) Trigger: Break below 1.1570 with conviction Targets: 1.1520, 1.1480, 1.1400 Strategy: Short rallies, trend following down Risk: Central bank intervention, policy shifts Performance Metrics & Success Indicators Strategy Validation Metrics Win Rate Targets: - Intraday strategies: 60-65% win rate minimum - Swing strategies: 55-60% win rate acceptable - Overall portfolio: 58% win rate target Risk-Reward Ratios: - Minimum acceptable: 1:1.5 risk-reward - Target average: 1:2.5 risk-reward - Exceptional setups: 1:4+ risk-reward potential Maximum Drawdown Limits: - Daily drawdown: 2% maximum - Weekly drawdown: 5% maximum - Monthly drawdown: 8% maximum Performance Tracking KPIs Trading Efficiency: - Average holding period for winning trades - Average holding period for losing trades - Profit factor (gross profit/gross loss) - Sharpe ratio for trading performance Market Timing Accuracy: - Entry timing effectiveness - Exit timing optimization - Pattern recognition accuracy - Economic event impact prediction Conclusion & Strategic Outlook The EUR/USD pair presents a compelling technical landscape with multiple analytical frameworks converging to suggest potential bullish continuation from current levels. MACD remains above the zero line, though momentum is fading, signaling a potential sideways phase. RSI holds near 60, reflecting the dominance of bullish sentiment, supporting our cautiously optimistic bias. The confluence of Elliott Wave impulse structure, completed harmonic patterns, Wyckoff markup phase characteristics, and supportive Ichimoku cloud positioning creates a favorable risk-reward environment for both intraday and swing trading opportunities. Key Strategic Themes: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish above 1.1570 invalidation level 2. Target Hierarchy: 1.1720 → 1.1800 → 1.1880 → 1.1950 3. Risk Management: Critical support at 1.1635-1.1650 cluster 4. Time Horizon: 4-8 week bullish campaign potential Success Probability Assessment: Bullish Continuation: 65% probability Sideways Consolidation: 25% probability Bearish Reversal: 10% probability Critical Decision Points: 1. 1.1680 Resistance: Break confirms bullish acceleration 2. 1.1635 Support: Hold required for bullish structure integrity 3. 1.1720 Zone: Major resistance test will determine intermediate-term direction The integration of advanced technical methodologies with comprehensive risk management protocols positions traders to capitalize on the EUR/USD pair's evolving price action while maintaining appropriate downside protection. Continuous monitoring of central bank policies, economic data releases, and global risk sentiment remains essential for strategy adaptation and optimal trade execution. Trading Recommendation: Maintain bullish bias with defensive positioning, scale into strength above key resistance levels, and prepare for potential volatility expansion around major economic events and central bank communications.
by sunya
2
FTSE 100 UK100 Technical Analysis: Weekly Forecast# FTSE 100 UK100 Technical Analysis: Advanced Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy & Weekly Forecast Current Price: 9,191.30 (As of August 30, 2025, 11:54 AM UTC+4) Asset Class: UK100 / FTSE 100 Index Analysis Date: August 30, 2025 --- Executive Summary The FTSE 100 Index (UK100) continues to demonstrate resilient performance, trading at 9,191.30 points with solid fundamental support from recent Bank of England policy accommodation. Recent market data shows the GB100 reached 9,199 points on August 29, 2025, maintaining a monthly gain of 0.68% and an impressive 9.82% year-over-year advance. Our comprehensive technical analysis reveals the index is positioned for potential continuation toward the 9,525.47 analytical target by year-end 2025, supported by dovish monetary policy and improving technical confluence across multiple timeframes. --- Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Analysis The FTSE 100 exhibits a complex corrective structure within a larger degree impulse sequence: Primary Count: Completing Wave 5 of (3) within an extended bull market cycle Alternative Count: ABC corrective completion transitioning to new impulse Immediate Target: 9,300-9,400 (Wave 5 extension) Extended Target: 9,525-9,600 (Major wave completion zone) Invalidation Level: Break below 8,950 (Wave 4 low) Long-term Projection: 10,200-10,500 potential by mid-2026 Wyckoff Market Structure Analysis Current price action demonstrates characteristics of a Wyckoff Re-accumulation Phase: Phase: Late Stage Re-accumulation with signs of Markup beginning Volume Analysis: Institutional absorption evident on declines below 9,100 Price Action: Narrowing consolidation ranges with higher low formation Composite Operator Activity: Smart money accumulation at support levels Market Structure: Building energy for next major upward movement W.D. Gann Comprehensive Analysis Square of 9 Analysis: - Current price 9,191.30 positioned near significant Gann resistance level - Next major Gann square: 9,409 (180-degree rotation from recent low) - Time and price convergence: September 15-22, 2025 (Autumn Equinox influence) - Critical Gann levels: 9,216, 9,409, 9,604 (geometric progressions) Angle Theory Application: - 1x1 Rising Angle Support: 9,050-9,100 (primary trend support) - 2x1 Accelerated Angle: 9,300-9,400 (next resistance cluster) - 1x2 Support Angle: 8,850-8,950 (major correction boundary) - 1x4 Long-term Support: 8,500-8,600 (secular bull market support) Time Cycle Analysis: - 84-day cycle completion anticipated: Mid-September 2025 - Seasonal Gann Pattern: September-October historically bullish for UK markets - Major time window: October 8-18, 2025 (next significant turning point) - Annual cycle: Year-end strength typically supports FTSE performance Price Forecasting & Time Harmonics: - Immediate resistance: 9,240-9,280 - Primary target: 9,350-9,400 - Extended projection: 9,525-9,600 - Time harmony suggests acceleration after September 18, 2025 --- Japanese Candlestick & Harmonic Pattern Analysis Recent Candlestick Formations (Daily Chart) Bullish Engulfing: August 26-27 showing strong buying pressure Piercing Pattern: August 28-29 confirming support at 9,150 level Long Lower Shadows: Multiple occurrences indicating accumulation Volume Validation: Increasing volume on up days, declining on down days Harmonic Pattern Recognition Bullish Gartley Completion: 9,050-9,150 zone (recent successful test) ABCD Pattern Active: Targeting 9,375-9,425 completion zone Potential Butterfly Formation: Monitoring for completion at 9,500-9,600 Fibonacci Confluence: 1.618 extension projects to 9,387 from August low Advanced Harmonic Analysis Three Drives Pattern: Currently developing third drive toward 9,400+ Cypher Pattern Potential: Reversal consideration at 9,550-9,650 Deep Crab Formation: Long-term pattern suggesting 9,800+ targets AB=CD Equality: Multiple time and price relationships converging --- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis Current Cloud Structure (Daily Chart) Price Position: Above Kumo cloud indicating bullish trend continuation Tenkan-sen (9-period): 9,167 (short-term dynamic support) Kijun-sen (26-period): 9,124 (medium-term trend baseline) Senkou Span A: 9,146 (leading span A - immediate support) Senkou Span B: 9,087 (leading span B - key cloud support) Chikou Span: Positioned above historical price action (bullish confirmation) Future Kumo Analysis (26 periods ahead): - Ascending cloud formation supporting continued bullish bias - Future support zone: 9,200-9,300 (forward-looking cloud support) - Kumo thickness increasing, suggesting strengthening trend Ichimoku Trading Signals TK Cross: Tenkan above Kijun (active bullish signal) Price vs Cloud: Sustained positioning above cloud Chikou Span Clear: No interference with historical price levels Cloud Breakout: Recent bullish breakthrough confirmed --- Technical Indicators Comprehensive Analysis RSI (Relative Strength Index) Multi-Timeframe Daily RSI: 62.4 (healthy bullish momentum, room for expansion) Weekly RSI: 58.7 (positive trend with upside potential) 4H RSI: 65.8 (approaching but not yet overbought) RSI Divergence Analysis: No bearish divergence detected, momentum intact Bollinger Bands Analysis Current Position: Price approaching upper band (9,220 level) Band Width: Contracting after recent expansion (consolidation phase) %B Indicator: 0.72 (strong positioning without extreme reading) Squeeze Indicator: Preparing for next volatility expansion VWAP Analysis (Volume Weighted Average Price) Daily VWAP: 9,154 (key dynamic support level) Weekly VWAP: 9,089 (intermediate support zone) Monthly VWAP: 9,067 (major trend support) Volume Profile: Significant acceptance above 9,100 level Moving Average Structure Analysis 10 EMA: 9,158 (immediate dynamic support) 20 EMA: 9,136 (short-term trend support) 50 SMA: 9,087 (intermediate trend support) 100 SMA: 9,023 (key trend support) 200 SMA: 8,934 (major secular support) Moving Average Alignment: - Perfect bullish alignment across all timeframes - Golden Cross pattern firmly established (50/200 SMA) - Price trading above all major moving averages --- Support & Resistance Analysis Primary Resistance Levels 1. R1: 9,240-9,280 (immediate Gann resistance cluster) 2. R2: 9,350-9,400 (2x1 Gann angle and harmonic completion) 3. R3: 9,525-9,600 (Major Elliott Wave target and analytical forecast) 4. R4: 9,750-9,800 (Long-term harmonic projection) 5. R5: 10,000-10,200 (Psychological and secular targets) Primary Support Levels 1. S1: 9,124 (Kijun-sen and recent swing support) 2. S2: 9,050-9,100 (1x1 Gann angle and harmonic support) 3. S3: 8,950-9,000 (Elliott Wave invalidation boundary) 4. S4: 8,850-8,900 (1x2 Gann angle and 100 SMA confluence) 5. S5: 8,750-8,800 (Major correction target zone) Volume-Based Price Levels High Volume Node: 9,050-9,150 (institutional accumulation zone) Low Volume Gap: 9,200-9,300 (potential rapid movement area) Volume Resistance: 9,400+ (historical distribution levels) POC (Point of Control): 9,125 (maximum volume acceptance) --- Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy Framework Scalping Strategy (5M & 15M Charts) 5-Minute Timeframe Methodology: Entry Criteria: Pullbacks to 20 EMA with RSI <30 oversold Profit Targets: 25-40 points per scalping trade Stop Loss Parameters: 15-20 points maximum risk exposure Volume Confirmation: Above-average volume required on breakouts Optimal Time Windows: 8:00-10:00 AM and 2:00-4:00 PM GMT 15-Minute Scalping Framework: Range Identification: Current consolidation 9,150-9,220 Breakout Methodology: Volume spike confirmation above 9,220 Mean Reversion: Fade extreme moves beyond 2 standard deviations Risk Management: Maximum 3 positions simultaneously, 1:1.5 minimum R:R Intraday Trading Strategies (30M, 1H, 4H) 30-Minute Chart Approach: Trend Following: Long positions above EMA confluence (9,140) Pattern Recognition: Flag and pennant completions near resistance Target Methodology: Initial 9,280, extended 9,350-9,400 Risk Parameters: 50-70 point stops, 2:1 reward-to-risk minimum 1-Hour Chart Strategy: Momentum Confirmation: MACD histogram expansion on bullish crossovers Support Trading: Long entries from 9,100-9,150 support zone Breakout Management: Monitor 9,240 level for continuation signals Session Focus: London session volatility (8:00 AM - 4:30 PM GMT) 4-Hour Swing Framework: Cloud Strategy: Long positions on successful Ichimoku cloud bounces Elliott Wave Guidance: Ride Wave 5 extensions toward major targets Fibonacci Utilization: 38.2% and 61.8% retracements for optimal entries Position Duration: 2-7 days typical holding period for swing trades Swing Trading Strategy (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) Daily Chart Methodology: Breakout Strategy: Long on sustained breaks above 9,240 with volume Accumulation Zones: Build positions on tests of 9,050-9,150 Target Sequence: 9,350 → 9,525 → 9,750 progressive profit-taking Position Management: Scale entries across multiple time frame confirmations Weekly Chart Perspective: Primary Trend: Strongly bullish above 8,950 weekly support Swing Objectives: 9,525-9,600 zone for major profit realization Risk Assessment: Weekly closes below 8,850 signal trend reversal Monthly Chart Analysis: Secular Trend: Multi-year bull market structure intact Long-term Targets: 10,500-11,000 by 2026-2027 projections Major Support: 8,200-8,500 (unlikely to test in current cycle) --- Daily Trading Plan: September 2-6, 2025 Monday, September 2, 2025 Market Status: Full UK trading session Technical Setup: Resistance Levels: 9,240, 9,280, 9,320 Support Levels: 9,150, 9,100, 9,050 Expected Range: 9,120-9,260 Trading Strategy: Morning Session (8:00-12:00 GMT): Monitor for overnight gap analysis Afternoon Session (12:00-16:30 GMT): Focus on US market correlation Primary Setup: Long 9,140-9,170 targeting 9,240-9,280 Alternative Setup: Fade any move above 9,280 without volume confirmation Risk Considerations: - Bank of England policy speculation impact - End-of-month institutional flows - Brexit-related news sensitivity Tuesday, September 3, 2025 Market Outlook: Post-Labor Day momentum with full global participation Key Events & Strategy: UK Economic Data: Manufacturing PMI and construction data releases Technical Focus: 9,240 breakout attempt with volume validation Entry Strategy: Long 9,180-9,220 on consolidation completion Target Areas: 9,300-9,350 on successful breakout scenarios Risk Management: - Reduced position sizes due to data event risk - Monitor GBP/USD correlation for confirmation signals - Prepare for potential volatility around PMI releases Wednesday, September 4, 2025 Market Outlook: Mid-week consolidation with building momentum Strategic Framework: Technical Pattern: Monitor for bull flag or pennant completion Volume Analysis: Require institutional participation for sustained moves Support Testing: Strength of 9,150-9,180 zone crucial for continuation Momentum Signals: MACD and RSI alignment for directional bias Trading Approach: Range Strategy: Buy support, sell resistance until breakout Breakout Preparation: Position for 9,240+ level clearance Risk Assessment: Political developments and central bank communications Thursday, September 5, 2025 Market Outlook: Pre-weekly close positioning dynamics Key Considerations: Technical Levels: 9,300-9,350 resistance cluster testing Institutional Activity: Pension fund rebalancing flows Pattern Development: Harmonic pattern completion monitoring Global Correlation: Monitor S&P 500 and DAX for confirmation Execution Strategy: Momentum Continuation: Above 9,280 favors 9,400 target Profit-Taking Zones: Scale out at 9,320, 9,380, 9,425 Risk Management: Tighten stops as resistance approaches Friday, September 6, 2025 Market Outlook: Weekly close significance and weekend positioning Final Session Strategy: Weekly Close Target: Above 9,200 maintains bullish structure Profit Preservation: Secure gains from successful breakout trades Gap Risk Management: Prepare for weekend news flow impact Position Review: Maintain swing positions with appropriate stops Critical Levels: Weekly Bullish: Close above 9,220 Weekly Neutral: 9,150-9,220 range Weekly Bearish: Close below 9,150 --- Macroeconomic & Policy Analysis Bank of England Policy Impact The Bank of England's recent monetary policy decisions significantly influence FTSE 100 performance. The Committee voted to reduce Bank Rate to 4% in August 2025, representing continued accommodation that supports equity valuations and corporate profitability across the index. Interest Rate Environment The next Bank Rate decision is due on September 18, 2025, with economists and markets expecting at least one more rate cut in 2025. This dovish policy trajectory provides fundamental support for equity market performance. Economic Growth Outlook The UK economic environment presents improving conditions with downside domestic and geopolitical risks around economic activity remaining, although trade policy uncertainty has diminished somewhat. This stabilization supports continued FTSE 100 outperformance. Inflation Dynamics The Bank of England predicted that inflation would follow a bumpy path and expects it to rise to around 4% in September, but this increase should be only temporary, and inflation should fall back to 2%. Key Risk Factors 1. Monetary Policy Uncertainty: Timing and magnitude of future rate cuts 2. Global Trade Relations: Post-Brexit trade relationship developments 3. Currency Impact: GBP strength/weakness affecting multinational earnings 4. Energy Sector Exposure: Oil price volatility impacting major components 5. Political Stability: Government policy consistency and business confidence --- Sector Analysis & FTSE 100 Component Review Sector Performance Dynamics Financial Services: Benefiting from interest rate normalization process Energy Sector: Oil majors providing dividend yield attraction Consumer Goods: Defensive characteristics supporting index stability Technology: Limited exposure compared to global peers, potential upside Healthcare: Pharmaceutical giants providing stability and growth Dividend Yield Analysis The FTSE 100's attractive dividend yield continues to support international investor interest, with share buybacks remaining a significant component of shareholder returns supported by robust cash generation of these companies. Valuation Assessment There's little doubt that the UK's blue-chip index is undervalued compared with overseas peers, providing fundamental support for continued outperformance and multiple expansion potential. --- Multi-Asset Correlation Analysis Currency Relationships GBP/USD Impact: Inverse correlation with multinational earnings (0.65 negative) EUR/GBP Influence: European trade relationship effects (0.45 positive) USD Strength: Dollar appreciation pressures on international revenues Global Index Correlations S&P 500 Relationship: Moderate positive correlation (0.58) DAX Connection: Strong European correlation (0.74) Nikkei Influence: Asian market sentiment transmission (0.42) Commodity Exposure Oil Price Sensitivity: Energy sector weighting creates positive correlation Gold Relationship: Limited direct exposure, inverse correlation during risk-off Base Metals: Industrial exposure through mining components --- Risk Management Comprehensive Framework Position Sizing Methodology Scalping Operations: 0.5-1% account risk per individual trade Intraday Positions: 1-2% maximum account risk exposure Swing Positions: 2-3% account risk per established position Maximum Portfolio Exposure: 7% total UK100-related risk allocation Stop-Loss Implementation Scalping Stops: 15-25 points maximum loss per trade Intraday Stops: 50-75 points based on volatility conditions Swing Trading Stops: Below key support levels (9,050 for current longs) Technical Invalidation: Elliott Wave and pattern breakdown levels Profit-Taking Strategy Scaling Method: Take 30% at first target, 40% at second target, hold 30% Trailing Stops: Implement after achieving 2:1 favorable risk-reward Time-Based Exits: Close before major BoE announcements and data releases Pattern-Based Exits: Honor harmonic and Elliott Wave completion zones Risk Monitoring Systems Daily Risk Assessment: Maximum drawdown tolerance 3% Weekly Risk Review: Position correlation and concentration analysis Monthly Performance Evaluation: Strategy effectiveness and adjustment needs Stress Testing: Scenario analysis for major market disruptions --- Weekly Outlook Probability Matrix Bullish Scenario (Probability: 70%) Primary Catalysts: - Bank of England maintains accommodative policy stance - UK economic data shows continued stability/improvement - Technical breakout above 9,240 with volume confirmation - Global risk-on sentiment supporting equity markets Price Objectives: - Initial Target: 9,300-9,350 - Extended Target: 9,400-9,525 - Optimistic Scenario: 9,600+ Supporting Factors: - Dividend yield attraction for international investors - Undervaluation relative to global peers - Technical momentum building across timeframes Neutral/Consolidation Scenario (Probability: 20%) Characteristics: - Range-bound trading between 9,100-9,280 - Mixed economic signals and policy uncertainty - Technical indecision at key resistance levels - Reduced trading volumes and institutional activity Trading Parameters: - Upper Range: 9,250-9,280 - Lower Range: 9,100-9,150 - Strategy Focus: Range trading and volatility contraction plays Bearish Scenario (Probability: 10%) Risk Catalysts: - Unexpected hawkish shift from Bank of England - Significant deterioration in UK economic indicators - Major geopolitical shock or financial system stress - Technical breakdown below critical support at 9,050 Downside Objectives: - Initial Target: 8,950-9,000 - Extended Target: 8,800-8,850 - Stress Scenario: 8,600-8,750 --- Advanced Trading Techniques & Market Microstructure Order Flow Analysis Institutional Activity: Large block trades above 9,150 indicate accumulation Retail Sentiment: Contrarian indicator showing excessive bearishness Options Market: Put/call ratio neutral, no extreme positioning detected ETF Flows: Consistent inflows into UK equity ETFs supporting demand High-Frequency Trading Considerations Algorithmic Support: 9,150-9,180 zone shows HFT buying interest Liquidity Zones: Deep liquidity above 9,200 and below 9,100 Speed of Execution: Critical during London market open and close Spread Dynamics: Tightening spreads indicating improving liquidity Options Market Intelligence Gamma Exposure: Positive gamma above 9,180, negative below 9,100 Key Strike Concentrations: 9,200 calls and 9,100 puts high open interest Implied Volatility: Currently underpriced relative to realized volatility Options Skew: Slight put premium indicating modest hedging activity --- Seasonal & Cyclical Analysis Historical Seasonal Patterns September Performance: Historically mixed, average +0.8% monthly return Q4 Seasonality: Strong fourth quarter performance, average +4.2% Year-End Effects: Portfolio rebalancing typically supports FTSE 100 Dividend Calendar: Major distributions in Q1 and Q3 affecting flows Economic Cycle Positioning Current Phase: Late cycle expansion with monetary accommodation Sector Rotation: Value sectors outperforming growth in current environment Interest Rate Cycle: Declining rate environment supporting equity multiples Credit Cycle: Stable credit conditions supporting corporate expansion --- Technology & Innovation Impact Fintech Integration Digital Banking: Major FTSE components adapting to digital transformation Payment Systems: Evolution affecting traditional banking models Regulatory Technology: Compliance costs and operational efficiency factors Cryptocurrency Influence: Limited direct exposure, regulatory developments ESG Considerations Environmental Standards: Increasing focus on sustainability metrics Social Governance: Stakeholder capitalism trends affecting valuations Regulatory Compliance: ESG reporting requirements and investment flows Transition Risks: Energy transition affecting traditional sector weights --- Conclusion & Strategic Outlook The FTSE 100 Index (UK100) presents a compelling technical and fundamental investment case with multiple confluences supporting continued upside momentum toward the analytical forecast target of £9,525.47 by the end of 2025. The combination of accommodative Bank of England policy, attractive dividend yields, and constructive technical patterns creates a favorable risk-reward environment. Critical Success Factors: 1. Monetary Policy Support: Continued BoE accommodation through 2025 2. Technical Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above 9,240 with volume 3. Economic Stability: UK data showing resilience and gradual improvement 4. Global Risk Environment: Maintained risk-on sentiment supporting equities Key Monitoring Priorities: 1. September 18 BoE Decision: Next policy rate announcement impact 2. Technical Level Behavior: Price action at 9,240-9,280 resistance cluster 3. Volume Patterns: Institutional participation in breakout attempts 4. Global Correlation Changes: Relationship dynamics with major indices Strategic Recommendation: Maintain constructive bias with tactical flexibility, emphasizing disciplined risk management while positioning for probable continuation of the multi-year bull market in UK equities. The September 15-22 Gann time window represents a critical juncture for intermediate-term directional confirmation. The confluence of technical, fundamental, and policy factors suggests high probability for achieving the 9,400-9,525 target zone within the forecast timeframe, while downside risk appears well-contained above the 9,050 support complex. --- *This comprehensive analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, and readers should conduct their own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions. Always implement appropriate risk management strategies and position sizing methodologies.* --- For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
PEPPERSTONE:UK100
by sunya
EUR/GBP: Bullish Stance Above 0.8640This signal outlines a tactical long entry on EUR/GBP, positioning for a bullish resolution from today's major fundamental events. 📰 Fundamental Thesis This position is taken ahead of the two primary market movers: the ECB rate decision and the UK PMI data. The core thesis is that the ECB policy statement will be the dominant catalyst, providing strength to EUR that will outweigh the impact of the UK data release. 📊 Technical Thesis The trade is defined by a sound technical structure. The stop loss is anchored beneath the critical support zone at 0.8640. The profit target is set to challenge the resistance area just above 0.8722. This setup offers a favorable and clearly defined risk-to-reward profile. 🧠 Risk Management Execution is timed before extreme event-driven volatility. Adherence to the stop loss is critical to manage the inherent risk of this pre-news strategy. Trade Parameters ⬆️ Direction: Long (Buy) ➡️ Entry: 0.86690 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 0.86344 🎯 Target: 0.87382 ✅ Risk/Reward: 1:2
Long
by MaxellAguiran
1
UK employment,wage growth falls, US retail sales shineThe British pound showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3406, down 0.09% on the day. Today's UK employment report pointed to a cooling in the UK labor market. The number of employees on company payrolls dropped by 41 thousand in June after a decline of 25 thousand in May. Still, the May decline was downwardly revised from 109 thousand, easing concerns of a significant deterioration in the labor market. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) dropped to 5.0% from a revised 5.3%, above the market estimate of 4.9%. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%, up from 4.6% and above the market estimate of 4.6%. This is the highest jobless level since the three months to July 2021. The latest job data will ease the pressure on the Bank of England to lower rates, as the sharp revision to the May payroll employees means the labor market has not deteriorated as much as had been feared. Still, the employment picture remains weak and the markets are expecting an August rate cut, even though UK inflation was hotter than expected in June. US retail sales bounced back in June after back-to-back declines. Consumers reacted with a thumbs-down to President Trump's tariffs, which took effect in April and made imported goods more expensive. The markets had anticipated a marginal gain of just 0.1% m/m in June but retail sales came in at an impressive 0.6%, with most sub-categories recording stronger activity in June. This follows a sharp 0.9% decline in May. The US tariffs seem to have had a significant impact on retail sales, as consumers continue to time their purchases to minimize the effect of tariffs. Consumers increased spending before the tariffs took effect and cut back once the tariffs were in place. With a truce in place between the US and China which has slashed tariff rates, consumers have opened their wallets and are spending more on big-ticket items such as motor vehicles, which jumped 1.2% in June.
by OANDA
2
UK employment,wage growth falls, US retail sales shineThe British pound showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3406, down 0.09% on the day. Today's UK employment report pointed to a cooling in the UK labor market. The number of employees on company payrolls dropped by 41 thousand in June after a decline of 25 thousand in May. Still, the May decline was downwardly revised from 109 thousand, easing concerns of a significant deterioration in the labor market. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) dropped to 5.0% from a revised 5.3%, above the market estimate of 4.9%. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%, up from 4.6% and above the market estimate of 4.6%. This is the highest jobless level since the three months to July 2021. The latest job data will ease the pressure on the Bank of England to lower rates, as the sharp revision to the May payroll employees means the labor market has not deteriorated as much as had been feared. Still, the employment picture remains weak and the markets are expecting an August rate cut, even though UK inflation was hotter than expected in June. US retail sales bounced back in June after back-to-back declines. Consumers reacted with a thumbs-down to President Trump's tariffs, which took effect in April and made imported goods more expensive. The markets had anticipated a marginal gain of just 0.1% m/m in June but retail sales came in at an impressive 0.6%, with most sub-categories recording stronger activity in June. This follows a sharp 0.9% decline in May. The US tariffs seem to have had a significant impact on retail sales, as consumers continue to time their purchases to minimize the effect of tariffs. Consumers increased spending before the tariffs took effect and cut back once the tariffs were in place. With a truce in place between the US and China which has slashed tariff rates, consumers have opened their wallets and are spending more on big-ticket items such as motor vehicles, which jumped 1.2% in June.
by OANDA
UK inflation heats up, Pound shrugsThe British pound has stabilized on Wednesday and is trading at 1.3389 in the European session, up 0.07% on the day. This follows a four-day losing streak in which GBP/USD dropped 1.5%. On Tuesday, the pound fell as low as 1.3378, its lowest level since June 23. Today's UK inflation report brought news that the Bank of England would have preferred not to hear. UK inflation in June jumped to 3.6% y/y, up from 3.4% in May and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the highest level since January 2024 and is a stark reminder that inflation is far from being beaten. The main drivers of inflation were higher food and transport prices. Services inflation, which has been persistently high, remained steady at 4.7%. Monthly, CPI ticked up to 0.3% from 0.2%, above the market estimate of 0.2%. It was a similar story for core CPI, which rose to 3.7% y/y from 3.5% in May, above the market estimate of 3.5%. Monthly, core CPI climbed 0.4%, above 0.2% which was also the market estimate. The hot inflation report will make it more difficult for the BoE to lower interest rates and the money markets have responded by paring expectations of further rate cuts. Still, expectations are that the BoE will cut rates at the August 7 meeting, with a probability of around 80%, despite today’s higher-than-expected inflation numbers. The UK releases wage growth on Thursday, which is the final tier-1 event prior to the August meeting. Wage growth has been trending lower in recent months and if that continues in the May reading, that could cement an August rate cut.
by OANDA
Pound under pressure ahead of US, UK inflation reportsThe British pound has edged up higher on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3453, up 0.21% on the day. Earlier, GBP/USD touched a low of 1.3416, its lowest level since June 23. All eyes will be on the UK inflation report for June, which will be released on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4% y/y, as is core CPI at 3.5%. Monthly, both the headline rates are expected to stay steady at 0.2%. Has the BoE's battle to lower inflation stalled? The BoE was looking good in March, when inflation eased to 2.6%, but CPI has rebounded to 3.4%, well above the BoE's inflation target of 2%. Services data has been especially sticky, although it dropped to 4.7% in May, down from 5.4% a month earlier. At 3.4%, inflation is stuck at its highest level since February 2024 and that will complicate plans at the BoE to renew interest rate cuts in order to kick-start the weak UK economy. The central bank has lowered rates twice this year and would like to continue trimming the current cash rate of 4.25%. The Bank meets next on Aug. 7 and Wednesday's inflation data could be a significant factor in the rate decision. In the US, if June inflation data rises as is expected, fingers will quickly point to President Trump's tariffs as finally having an impact. Recent inflation reports have not shown a significant spike higher due to the tariffs, which were first imposed in April. However, the tariffs may have needed time to filter throughout the economy and could be felt for the first time in the June inflation reading. The Fed meets next on July 30, with the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a hold, according to CME's FedWatch. For September, the odds of a rate cut stand at 59%. Today's inflation report could cause a shift in these numbers. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.3454 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.3484 1.3396 and 1.3366 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Will The Prospect of a BoE Rate Cut Continue to Dampen GBPUSD?Macro approach: - GBPUSD has weakened since last week, pressured by disappointing UK economic data and rising expectations of a BoE rate cut. Meanwhile, the US dollar found support amid cautious risk sentiment and anticipation of key US inflation data. - UK GDP contracted for a second consecutive month in May, and recent labor market surveys signaled further cooling, reinforcing the case for the BoE's monetary easing. Governor Bailey reiterated that the path for rates is "downward," with markets now pricing in a high probability of a cut at the Aug meeting. - Meanwhile, the US dollar was buoyed by safe-haven flows and firm inflation expectations ahead of the US CPI release, highlighting policy divergence between the Fed and BoE. - GBPUSD may remain under pressure as traders await UK inflation and employment data, which could influence the BoE's next move. The pair could see further volatility with US CPI and Fed commentary also on the radar as potential catalysts. Technical approach: - GBPUSD is retesting the ascending channel's lower bound, confluence with the key support at 1.3420. The price is between both EMAs, indicating a sideways movement. GBPUSD awaits an apparent breakout to determine the short-term trend. - If GBPUSD breaches below the support at 1.3420, the price may plunge toward the following support at 1.3175. - On the contrary, holding above 1.3420 may prompt a short correction to retest EMA21. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Short
by DatTong
UK GBP contracts, pound dipsThe British pound continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3530, down 0.30% on the day. The UK wrapped up the week on a down note, as GDP contracted in May by 0.1% m/m. This followed a 0.3% decline in April and missed the consensus of 0.1%. The decline was driven by a 1% decline in manufacturing and a 0.6% contraction in construction, which cancelled out a 0.1% expansion in services. The GDP contractions in April and May point to a weak second quarter of growth, after an impressive 0.7% gain in the first quarter. The economic landscape remains uncertain and the Bank of England has projected weak growth of 1% for 2025. Governor Bailey has said that the rate path will be "gradually downwards" but hasn't hinted as to the timing of the next cut. The weak GDP data supports the case for an August rate cut, even though headline inflation is running at 3.4% and core inflation at 3.5%, well above the BoE's target of 2%. The money markets have priced in a quarter-point cut in August at 80%, which would lower the cash rate to 4.0%. The BoE released its financial stability report earlier in the week, noting that the outlook for UK growth over the coming year is "a little weaker and more uncertain". The Bank highlighted President Trump's tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East. The UK has recently signed a trade deal with the US but some tariffs on UK products remain in effect. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.3534. Below, there is support at 1.3491 The next resistance lines are 1.3577 and 1.3620
by OANDA