Am I the only one worried about this? Big divergence between the market rally and percentage of stocks participating in it. This is what the end of 2021 looked like.
Another interesting fact: The % of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index over the prior 1-year period hit a record low last month at 24%. This is the lowest reading since at least 1994.
2023 has been a tough year for stock pickers. The gap between equity factor styles has been vast over H1. Growth, riskier in nature, posted the best performance up 24% year-to-date (YTD) followed closely behind by quality up 20% YTD1. The excitement around artificial intelligence (AI) reached a fever pitch in H1 2023, supporting growth-oriented technology stocks....
This is update 5 for the Signpost after the Whaley Breadth idea post in Feb'23
If you remember The Whaley Breadth Trust is a powerful signal that has a great success rate. It was invented by Wayne Whaley in 2009. Since 1970 to 2009, the signal has occurred only 12 times!
🛠️ INDICATOR
For my followers, I even made a special indicator for the Whaley Breadth...
This is update 4 for the Signpost after the Whaley Breadth idea post in Feb'23
If you remember The Whaley Breadth Trust is a powerful signal that has a great success rate. It was invented by Wayne Whaley in 2009. Since 1970 to 2009, the signal has occured only 12 times!
Based on the Whaley Breadth Post and January Trifecta we drew a potential map for the next 3,...
I measure the breadth in the S&P as the SPY (market cap weighted S&P) divided by RSP (equal weighted S&P ETF). The higher the ratio, the more concentrated the market, and therefore less market breadth.
As can be seen, nearly every time the ratio has neared 3.0, the Fed has ensued with an easy money policy, and the SPY subsequently turned bullish. During these...
This is update 3 for the SignPost after the Whaley Breadth Post.
If you remember The Whaley Breadth Trust is a powerful signal that has a great success rate. It was invented by Wayne Whaley in 2009. Since 1970 to 2009, the signal has occured only 12 times!
Based on the Whaley Breadth Post and January Trifecta we drew a potential map for the next 3, 6 and 12...
I am updating for 2nd time the SignPost after the Whaley Post.
Make sure you see the section related ideas under the main text to this idea. This will show you links with timestamps of the first time I wrote about it a month ago.
So far the action has been to the point of my expectations.
I will use this chart further on during the year to see how it moves.
The chart shows the S&P500 Future, continiues contract ES1!.
Below you see the charts of the percentage of stocks which above their 50, 100, 200 SMA.
I watch this market breadth indicator closely to see the if a trend is just based on a few big stocks or is "the flow lifting all boats".
What I observe now is that we hat a similar situation in the indicators at...
What can help us guide forward expectations?
According to the Whaley Breadth Thrust Signal there is Normal and Abnormal action
FIRST 6 WEEKS (end Feb)
- 3-5% pullbacks would be normal
FIRST 12 WEEKS (end Jul)
- Forward Gains are approximate 12%
- 5-6% pullback would be normal
6 MONTHS Forward
- Forward Gains are approx +17%
I HAVE MADE THE WHALEY...
While the general market indexes has been unconstructive (top chart) the stocks underneath the service are improving (bottom chart).
In this case we are looking at the stocks in the SP500 that are above their 200D MA (Picture is similar for the Nasdaq) - this is a bullish indicator and the reason why I am starting to dip toe in the water.
Remember this is was...
The main focus is on setups and scan outcome, that will provide viable opportunities.
Market Structure : Duration bearish market (stocks move in tandem, occasional oversold rallies)
Primary Indicator : Green (bullish continuation and bearish reversals are favorable)
Secondary Indicator : Breadth thrust 12 Jan / Countermove attempt 18 Jan. Current MMFI:...
The main focus is on setups and scan outcome, that will provide viable opportunities.
Market Structure : Duration bearish market (stocks move in tandem, occasional oversold rallies).
Primary Indicator : Green (bullish continuation and bearish reversals are favorable).
Secondary Indicator : Breadth thrust 12 Jan / Countermove attempt 18 Jan. Current MMFI:...
The main focus is on setups and scan outcome, that will provide viable opportunities.
Market Structure: Duration bearish market (stocks move in tandem, occasional oversold rallies).
Primary Indicator : Green (bullish continuation and bearish reversals are favorable).
Secondary Indicator : Breadth thrust 12 Jan / Countermove attempt 18 Jan. Current MMFI =...
Looking at the latest S&P 500 SPX (SPY ES1!) "Breadth" data , including Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average (S5FI) & Stocks Above 200-Day Moving Average" (S5TH) — this is yet another indicator that we have been tracking since the start of the market downturn (correction/bear market) in late 21' / early 22' as it has helped to signal buy/sell signals.
Here's what...
A breadth measure, the weekly has broken the down channel and survived a retest and is above the cloud. Similar pattern for SOX, XLF, and XLI. Keep a watch on the trend, it is a good tell for market direction.
The NYSE Composite Index is a stock market index that includes all common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). It is calculated using a...
Breadth struggles to recover back above the key level. It looked like there was a confirmed reversal of the dowtrend in SPX to end 2022 but it could be in danger if the heavily anticipated Fed pivot does not materialize soon.
