BITCOIN RALLY STARTEDI believe now after bitcoin re-tested the trendline which is a great support, the rally for November & December is on the way
BTC-D
Are you ready for a $BTC next leg?Bitcoin is preparing for a new upward wave towards the resistance zone, reacting to the rising wedge-on-uptrend formation.
This structure often signals a decisive moment after recent momentum.
The reaction to the resistance line will determine the next trend direction.
Staying on top of the trend is crucial during this period.
Bitcoin is at key resistanceBitcoin is at key resistance
i`ll take SHORT ONLY in a case of clear trap
BTC Building Momentum — 112K+ Zone ON WAY.Bitcoin has held strong within the recent volume area, showing solid support and renewed buying pressure.
After rebounding from the lower levels near $106K–$108K, BTC is now pushing upward and appears on track toward the first target zone around $112K–$114K.
📈 Market Outlook:
Strong recovery from the volume area confirms short-term buyer control.
Resistance lies between $111.6K and $113.3K, marking the first target zone for this upward move.
Sustained momentum above $109.8K could trigger acceleration toward $114K+ in the next sessions.
📊 Observation:
Volume has started to align with bullish movement — if this continues, BTC could retest upper resistance and possibly extend toward $116K.
However, a pullback below $108.6K would suggest consolidation before another attempt higher.
💬 Summary:
BTC is on its way toward the first target zone above $112K, showing growing strength after reclaiming key volume support. Momentum remains positive as long as price holds above the mid-range.
Lets see if the math plays out.BTC Surge Mathematics – Oct 31, 2025
All calculations shown step-by-step.
1. Final Flush (Observed)
- Date: October 31, 2025
- Local Low: $106,200
- Close: $108,800
- Support Zone: $105,500 – $106,500
→ Within 0.28% — flush confirmed
2. Historical Flush-to-Surge Lag (2013, 2017, 2021)
Cycle | Flush Date | Surge Start | Days Lag
2013 | Oct 30 | Nov 4 | 5
2017 | Oct 28 | Nov 2 | 5
2021 | Oct 27 | Nov 1 | 5
μ = (5+5+5)/3 = 5 days
σ = 3 days (conservative)
3. Surge Ignition Window
Oct 31 + 5 = November 5
68%: Nov 2 – Nov 8
95%: Oct 31 – Nov 11
4. Acceleration Phase: Exponential Growth Model
P_t = 108,800 × (1.12)^w
w = weeks from Nov 1
w | Date | P_t | % Gain
0 | Oct 31 | $108,800 | 0%
1 | Nov 7 | $121,856 | +12%
2 | Nov 14 | $136,478 | +25%
3 | Nov 21 | $152,855 | +40%
4 | Nov 28 | $171,237 | +57%
5 | Dec 5 | $191,785 | +76%
6 | Dec 12 | $214,900 | +97%
8 | Dec 26 | $269,500 | +148%
5. Final Timeline (Weighted Consensus)
Input | Weight | Days | Date
Seasonal lag | 60% | 5 | Nov 5
Support hold | 20% | 3 | Nov 3
Funding flip | 20% | 4 | Nov 4
Weighted mean = 0.6(5) + 0.2(3) + 0.2(4) = 4.4 days
Oct 31 + 4.4 ≈ November 4
6. Confirmation Thresholds
- Daily close > $107,500
- RSI(14) higher low on 1H/4H
- Funding rate > 0.01% (8h avg)
- Spot CVD > +$50M/hr
→ 3 of 4 = 90% historical surge probability
Summary: Flush: Oct 31 | Ignition: Nov 4 | Model: P_t = 108,800 × 1.12^w | Target: $200k+ by Dec 12
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BTC SURGE MATHEMATICS – OCTOBER 31, 2025
1. FINAL FLUSH (OBSERVED)
Date: October 31, 2025
Local Low: 106,200
Close: 108,800
Support Zone: 105,500 – 106,500
→ Price flushed into support within 0.28% tolerance — flush confirmed.
2. HISTORICAL FLUSH-TO-SURGE LAG (PRIOR BULL CYCLES)
Cycle / Flush Date / Surge Start / Days Lag
2013 / Oct 30 / Nov 4 / 5
2017 / Oct 28 / Nov 2 / 5
2021 / Oct 27 / Nov 1 / 5
Mean (μ): 5 days
Sample σ: 0 days
Conservative prior σ: 3 days (to allow for variability)
3. SURGE IGNITION WINDOW
Observed flush (Oct 31) + average lag (5 days):
Projected ignition: November 4–5, 2025
68% probability window: Nov 2 – Nov 8
95% probability window: Oct 31 – Nov 11
4. ACCELERATION PHASE – EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL
Formula: P = 108,800 × (1 + r)^w
where r = weekly growth rate, w = weeks since Nov 4, 2025 (expected ignition)
Scenario / Weekly Growth / Target by Dec 12, 2025 / % Gain
Conservative / 6% / 149,000 / +37%
Base Case / 9% / 174,000 / +60%
Aggressive / 12% / 201,000 / +85%
Historical Q4 rallies (2021, 2023, 2024) support 9–12% weekly growth during early acceleration.
5. WEIGHTED CONSENSUS (TRIGGER TIMING)
Input Factor / Weight / Days Lag / Weighted Days
Seasonal Lag / 0.6 / 5 / 3.0
Support Hold / 0.2 / 3 / 0.6
Funding Flip / 0.2 / 4 / 0.8
Total Weighted Mean: 4.4 days
→ Expected ignition: November 4, 2025
6. CONFIRMATION CHECKLIST
A confirmed surge requires 3 of 4 conditions to trigger:
Metric / Threshold / Confirmation Signal
Price / Daily close > 107,500 and above prior 3-day high / Trend reclaim
Momentum / RSI(14) > 50 on 1H & 4H with higher lows / Bullish momentum
Derivatives / Funding positive > 24 hrs and rising / Shift to long bias
Spot Flows / Net spot inflows > 30-day 80th percentile / Institutional accumulation
When 3 of 4 conditions align → ~90% historical probability of a short-term surge.
7. SUMMARY
Flush confirmed: Oct 31 @ 106.2k
Expected ignition (weighted mean): Nov 4, 2025
Ignition window (95%): Oct 31 – Nov 11
Model: P = 108,800 × (1 + r)^w
Targets (by Dec 12): 149k – 201k depending on growth scenario
Seasonal bias: Bullish through late Dec → early Jan 2026
8. NOTES
* Historical sample (n=3) is small; σ=3 days imposed as conservative prior.
* Seasonal analysis aligns with macro pattern: Q4 inflows + ETF optimism.
* This model is probabilistic, not predictive — confirmation signals required before acting.
* Adjust position sizing dynamically; invalidate if daily close < 105k.
USDT.DOMINANCE CHART ANALIYSIS !!USDT Dominance Chart Update.
USDT dominance is again rejecting at the long-term trendline resistance (point 4), currently around 5.17%.
Structure suggests another potential move lower, with possible targets in the green zone (2.0%–3.0%) if the downtrend continues.
This scenario typically favors fresh capital rotation into Bitcoin and altcoins as traders de-risk from stablecoins.
Summary:
USDT dominance remains weak below the trendline. A sustained drop could spark further altcoin momentum and a broader crypto rally.
#BTC/USDT 4HOUR CHART UPDATE !!BTCUSDT 4H Chart Analysis
Pattern: The chart shows a double bottom at the $106,000–$107,000 zone (circled as points 1 and 2). Price bounced strongly after retesting this support region twice.
Support & Resistance: The green box highlights the major support zone, which has held firm and led to a reversal. Resistance remains at the gray band around $112,000–$113,000.
Setup: After confirming the double bottom, BTC has reclaimed $110,000 and is pushing toward resistance. The green bars suggest a bullish projection, targeting higher levels toward $117,000–$123,000 if BTC sustains momentum above resistance.
Summary:
BTC is bullish above $110,000, with a double bottom support in place. A successful breakout above local resistance could accelerate the uptrend in the coming sessions.
DYOR | NFA
BTC 4H ENG.My kids are scared; they got scared with the October 10th crash. Do you know when they stop being scared? When it goes up! I have my futures take profits at 117k; you're my target. I've had my entry pattern very clear, since I was at 106k. The red box indicates an ideal entry area, although you should already be inside.
BTC 4H ENGLISHBearish divergence forming. We're about to break the previous high. What's next? A pullback continues to rise, as the daily chart holds a bullish pattern. I'm not shorting that trade. I'm waiting for my next bullish entry to complete the daily chart's move.
Could we see a reversal on the Bitcoin?The price is reacting off the pivot which acts as a multi swing low support nd could bounce to the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 107,360.16
1st Support: 103,408.67
1st Resistance: 112,683.68
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could revert to the first support, which is a swing low support.
Pivot: 111,191.38
1st Support: 104,980.51
1st Resistance: 115,531.59
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Alts Crushed, BTC Next: Wyckoff Says the Top Is InTracking this top formation scenario since January 2025. A classic Wyckoff topping structure started forming and we're nearing the end of Phase B, Phasce C typically marked by a peak and expected collapse around March 2026. The weekly RSI continues to trend downward.
The market has already sold off most altcoins, with remaining BTC likely to follow. RSI weakness persists.
Final long positions through to Jan then Shorts only.
Best Hard Forky
BTC/USD 1D Chart📉 Trend Structure
Bitcoin is currently in a medium-term downtrend, as evidenced by the descending channel (black trend lines).
Each bounce from the upper edge of the channel has ended in a decline, and recent tests of the lower boundary suggest that the market is respecting this channel as a primary structure.
⚙️ Key Technical Levels
Resistance (green lines):
$123,345 – strong resistance from the previous high and the channel breakout boundary.
$115,179 – local resistance that has been tested several times and rejected.
Support (red lines):
$107,482 – currently tested support level; breaking it could strengthen supply pressure.
$104,929 – next strong support level near the local lows from September.
USD 98,841 – critical support – lower channel zone, potential capitulation or rebound zone.
📊 Volume
Volume is increasing on the declines, suggesting that the current downward move is supported by seller activity.
No significant accumulation volume at the lows – the bulls have not yet taken control.
🔄 Stoch RSI Oscillator
The Stoch RSI is approaching the oversold zone (around 20), but has not yet reached it.
If the %K and %D lines extend below 20 and then cross upward, this will signal a potential technical rebound.
For now, momentum is negative (bearish).
🧭 Scenarios
🟥 Bearish Scenario (more likely at this point)
A breakout of the $106,000 level opens the way to $104,900 and then $98,800.
Continuing the downward movement within the downward channel could lead to the lower edge of the channel around $100,000 in November.
🟩 Bullish Scenario (Bounce)
Defending the $106,000 level and a positive signal from the Stoch RSI could lead to a bounce around $115,000.
Only a breakout of the upper edge of the channel (~117,000–118,000) with volume confirmation would signal a trend reversal.
⚠️ Summary
Trend: Downtrend (descending channel)
Momentum: Bearish
Key level to watch: USD 106,000
Potential rebound area: USD 104,900 – USD 98,800
Stoch RSI: Near oversold → possible short-term rebound
Bitcoin shows no mercy — even on weekendsFor almost a month, I’ve mentioned that the crypto market is entering a correction phase after its strong multi-month rally.
Now, Bitcoin’s RSI has dropped below 50 on the weekly timeframe, which indicates a potential continuation of the downward momentum.
If the weekly candle closes below RSI 50, further declines seem likely — unless major macroeconomic events shift the sentiment.
Market volatility, why I dare to be bullish on BTC#BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT
The BTC market has been declining since yesterday's US session, with a sharp drop following Powell's hawkish comments, hitting a low of around 106,500. Institutional trading activity has decreased in the short term, suggesting a deliberate wait-and-see approach, anticipating further price corrections before re-entering the market. Therefore, do not blindly participate in trading in the short term.
The current BTC market may seem bustling, but it is actually rife with undercurrents. A new direction will only be established when sentiment reaches its peak and volatility subsides. Perhaps the next real starting point will not be in the current clamor, but after the cheers of retail investors subside. Pay attention to the performance of the downward channel support level of 160,000-104,500. If it pulls back to this range, you can consider establishing a small long position.
BTC/USD: Anticipating Rejection from FVG and Short-Term DropRecent Trend: Following a period of upward movement (October 24th - 27th), the price experienced a sharp drop from its peak near $116,000, indicating a short-term structural break to the downside.
Fair Value Gap (FVG): The shaded gray box, labeled FVG, represents a zone of price inefficiency created during the aggressive drop (between approximately $112,000 and $113,000). The price is currently trading near the lower boundary of this FVG.
Consequent Retracement Levels (CRT):
CRT-L (around $113,600) is the highest level of the FVG structure.
CRT-H (around $109,200) is the next anticipated level of support and the target for the expected decline.
Proposed Price Action:
The primary curved arrow indicates the expectation that the price will move up into the FVG zone to "fill" or mitigate the inefficiency.
After reaching the FVG, the price is expected to reject the zone and resume its decline (indicated by the straight black arrow) towards the CRT-H support level at approximately $109,200.
Interpretation and Trading Bias
The analysis suggests a short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin. The setup is based on the principle of price mitigating its imbalances (the FVG) before continuing the move that created that imbalance. The trade idea is to wait for the price to reach the FVG (the area of liquidity/resistance) before entering a short (sell) position targeting the CRT-H low.
Ethereum Game Plan - TDLRKZ MODELEthereum Game Plan - TDLRKZ MODEL
📊 Market Sentiment
On 29/10, the FED lowered rates by 25BPS, as expected. However, Powell’s comments introduced uncertainty regarding another cut in December, stating that further policy moves depend on incoming data.
Interestingly, one FED member dissented, preferring no cut this cycle — a shift from September when all members supported easing.
Following the statement, rate-cut expectations dropped from 95% to 68%, prompting traders to take profits and hedge, creating a short-term bearish sentiment across markets.
Despite this, the mid-to-long term outlook remains bullish, given the broader liquidity cycle and easing policy bias.
📈 Technical Analysis
Ethereum is currently accumulating inside a well-defined range.
Price failed to sustain above the $4950 range high and has started retracing toward the HTF bullish trendline, a potential reaction zone aligning with prior liquidity pools and confluences.
If price holds around this zone, ETH could seek the range high again once momentum returns.
📘 Model in Use – Trendline Deviation with HTF LR into Key Zone (TDLRKZ Model)
This model identifies setups where price deviates from HTF trendlines while interacting with liquidity zones and key structural levels.
The goal is to align HTF context with LTF confirmation for high-probability trend continuation setups.
Model Steps:
1️⃣ Identify the HTF trend direction and only trade in that direction.
2️⃣ Mark the HTF bullish trendline supporting price.
3️⃣ Spot HTF Key Zones likely to act as reaction areas.
4️⃣ Locate nearby liquidity pools or order concentrations.
5️⃣ Wait for confluence: when all align, confirm with a 4H market structure break for entry.
📌 Game Plan
Looking for ETH to retrace into $3350 and reject from that level.
If a 4H break of structure occurs and daily candle closes above $3350, this will trigger a long-biased setup.
🎯 Setup Trigger
→ 4H structure break after tagging $3350
→ Daily close above $3350
📋 Trade Management
→ Entry: After confirmation above $3350
→ Stop Loss: Below swing low that caused 4H break of structure
→ Targets:
TP1: $4150 (EQ)
TP2: $4550
TP3: $4950 (Range high)
→ Move SL to breakeven after TP1 is reached.
💬 Check my Substack for deeper macro and sentimental breakdowns — free subscriptions are open.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always DYOR before trading.
Target 92KBTC has breached major areas of support and key VALs which were last line of hope around 108K.
This fractal likely to play out rest of Q4!
Target 92K
Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Versus Monetary Policy
Chart shows:
—Bitcoin/Gold
—20-Week SMA
—SMA Slope Z-Scores*
—Fed Funds
—QE & QT
Bitcoin/Gold broke support of its 20W SMA for the 6th time in Bitcoin's history while the SMA slope normalizer* value reached zero (the long SMA rolled over), the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, and QT is ending.
These could represent increased bearish probabilities for the Btc/Gold ratio on medium and long timeframes.
*Slope Normalizer: The differentiated (positive and negative values are separated before subsequent calculations are made with the data) normalized z-scores (z-scores below 1 are muted while z-scores above 1 are not muted, in order to emphasize unusual values.)
When used with the SMA as an input, this essentially shows the normalized values of the rates of change of the SMA (on this chart, it is showing the normalized slope of the long-term simple moving average.)
BTC Loses Structure — Risk of Falling Below $106KBitcoin has officially lost the low-time-frame structure, confirming the end of the previous uptrend zone.
Momentum has shifted to the downside, with sellers gaining control and price now approaching a critical breakdown level.
📉 Current outlook:
BTC remains under $112K, signaling continuation of short-term weakness.
The end uptrend zone around $109K failed to hold support.
Market structure shows potential continuation below $106K if no reversal occurs soon.
📊 Observation:
Buyers have not defended the local range, and repeated rejections near $116K confirm exhaustion of bullish strength.
The next liquidity pool sits below $106K, which could act as the next target zone in this downtrend sequence.
💬 Summary:
BTC has broken its short-term structure — the chart shows clear downside risk with potential move below $106K if pressure continues.
BTC-Moment of TruthBTC-Moment of Truth ⚖️
Zoom out to the #Bitcoin Weekly —
Three distinct ranges, three tops.
Each time BTC broke above one…
it eventually came back to retest that range top as support —
right under the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB).
This latest dip?
No different. BTC has returned to retest the prior range top once again.
If the Satoshi Halving Prophecy is to be fulfilled —
and new ATHs are to emerge this year —
then this weekly + monthly close must reclaim the BMSB with strength.
👉 A close above $114K (ideally above $115.7k-last week’s high)
= Higher High + Bottoming Tail = Momentum Reversal.
Fail here, and the range expands lower.
Reclaim it… and the prophecy breathes.
Stay Sharp... We are at the Moment of Truth!
BITCOIN Has this huge Bearish Divergence started the Bear Cycle?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to be under heavy pressure in the past 4 weeks since the October 06 All Time High (ATH) and finds itself battling to hold the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. That trend-line has been basically the Support of this Bull Cycle since March 2023, and acted as the most optimal long-term buy level.
** Has the Bull Cycle ended? **
However this Bull Cycle may have very well come to an end already as the 1W RSI has been long exhibiting the same kind of bearish pattern (Lower Highs trend-line), while also having completed the 4-year Cycle, that all previous Bull Cycles formed on their respective tops. This is a huge Bearish Divergence formation as it goes against the price's Higher Highs, indicating trend exhaustion.
As you can see that 1 RSI Lower Highs trend-line formed the November 2021, December 2017 and December 2013 Cycle Tops. Even worse, the current Lower Highs trend-line has been going on since the March 11 2024 High. If BTC closes a 1W candle below its 1W MA50, it has greater probabilities to confirm the start of the new Bear Cycle as all previous ones did on such break-out.
** If yes, how much can it drop? **
Now, it might not be too relevant at this time yet, but as far as how low the Bear Cycle can go to before it bottoms, there are three potential levels of interest where long-term investors can Dollar Cost Average (DCA).
The January 2015 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Then the December 2018 Bear Cycle bottom was formed on the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous bottom. The last Bear Cycle has its bottom below the 1W MA200 and on the next Fib in line, the 0.5 level. The decline on each Bear Cycle that followed decelerated and was less than the previous (-86.70% to -84.19% to -77.22%).
If the new Bear Cycle has already started then the first level for a potential bottom is again the 0.382 Fib around $58000 where contact may potentially be made with the 1W MA200 as well. If it follows the previous Bear Cycle and bottoms on the 0.5 Fib, it will also be below the 1W MA200 around $45000. If on the other hand it goes a Fib level further, as the last two Cycles did, we are looking at the 0.618 Fib as a potential strong bottom candidate around $35000. That will also be a -70.76% decline from the Top, which will be -7% less than the previous Bear Cycle, which is also the difference that the 2022 Bear Cycle had from the 2018 one.
So what do you think? Has the Bull Cycle ended already and if yes, how low can the new Bear Cycle go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin holds above key support while the monthly trend stays inFear comes from chop, not collapse. That matters now because price is sitting on support while the longer chart still points up, which is where the bigger money is made.
My objective is simple. Decide if this drop is a pause inside the monthly uptrend, and map the highest probability path for the next week, the next few weeks, and the next quarter.
The monthly picture is my anchor. On 1M, ADX 14 is 41.95 which signals a strong trend. Price sits well above the 1M EMA 9 at 101766.79 and the 1M SMA 10 at 100687.53, which means pullbacks have room before any structural damage. The 1M MACD line is above the signal with a positive histogram at 2118.32, a sign of trend persistence, even if momentum cooled a bit. The 1M stochastic is overbought at 86.19, which often brings consolidation, not immediate reversal. Translation. Primary uptrend intact, likely sideways to up over the next quarter.
The weekly chart shows the consolidation. On 1W, price is below the 1W EMA 9 at 114030.37 and below the 1W SMA 10 at 113718.48. RSI 14 is 54.5, so momentum is neutral but not weak. The 1W MACD histogram is negative at minus 1113.44, yet it improved from last week, which fits a basing phase. Weekly ATR 14 is about 9297, so swings of nine to ten thousand fit the tape. Conclusion. A test of support is still likely before trend continuation.
Daily tells us where that test happens. On 1D, price hovers near the pivot at 110955.01, with resistance at 112710.01 and support at 108266.28 then 106511.28. The 1D SMA 200 sits at 109213.25, a level buyers care about. RSI 14 is 44.74, which is below neutral and consistent with a pullback. The 1D MACD histogram is positive at 345.64 after a series of higher bars, which often precedes a bounce. Daily ATR 14 is about 3789, so two to three day swings around four thousand are normal.
Intraday texture supports a near term bounce attempt. On 4H, RSI 14 is 43.58 and the stochastic %K turned up to 42.17 from deeply oversold. MACD histogram is still negative at minus 487.12, which is why any bounce should first aim for resistance rather than blue sky. The 4H pivot sits near 110294.59 and VWAP 50 on 4H at 111433.88 is the next tactical magnet.
Key levels I care about. Daily resistance 112710.01. Daily pivot 110955.01. Daily SMA 200 109213.25. Supports 108266.28, 106511.28, 103822.55. If buyers keep price above 109213.25, the path of least resistance is a grind back to 112710.01. Lose 108266.28, and the market likely tags 106511.28 where prior demand sits.
Here are the targets, chosen by timeframe and probability, with moves sized by ATR.
Short term, next 5 to 10 days. I expect a bounce toward 112700 which aligns with daily R1 at 112710.01. Probability about 60 percent, since 4H momentum is turning up and the 1D MACD histogram is rising, while the 1D SMA 200 at 109213.25 offers nearby support.
Medium term, within 4 to 8 weeks. I expect a retest of 106500 which aligns with daily S2 at 106511.28 and fits a weekly consolidation. Probability about 55 percent, because the 1W trend is neutral, price is below weekly moving averages, and weekly ATR allows a drop of this size without breaking the 1M uptrend.
Long term, by Q1 2026. I expect a push toward 123800, near the 1M upper band at 123481.59 and below the swing high at 126199.63. Probability about 65 percent, since 1M ADX is strong, moving averages are rising, and the monthly trend has not been violated.
Bottom line. This is a pullback inside a larger uptrend. Respect 109213.25 on the daily, trade the bounce to 112700, be ready for a weekly dip toward 106500, and keep sights on 123800 into the first quarter.
