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BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 137)Outlook: 1-5 days: bearish 6 days - 1 month: bullish 1 month - 6 months: bearish 6+ months: super bullish Yesterday’s analysis: Waiting on the weekly 9, wondering if we will grind downward slowly, or get some capitulation Patterns: 4hchart: Rejected bear flag. Bullish A-B-C-D pattern. Inverted h & s invalidated with move below $6,260 Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,150 (do not expect it to support another retest) R: $6,250 BTCUSDSHORTS: Supported above trendline, currently going for a retest of 23,000 resistance where horizontal and trend lines wait. If it breaks through that area then I expect the next major sell off to follow. Would recommend keeping a close eye on this chart over the next few days. Funding Rates: Shorts will pay 0.0229% EMA’s (12 & 26): 12: 2.88% above price 26: 4.57% above price. Recent bullish crossover on 1h, posturing for crossover on 2h. MA crossovers: 50: 8.66% above price 200: 45.60% above price. Bearish crossovers 15 min - 1d FIB’s: 0.236 fib is at $5,817 Candlestick analysis: 3dchart & weekly: bearish engulfing and tweezer top 4hrchart: multiple dojis as bears attempt to turn $6,250 support into resistance. Ichimoku Cloud: W: Price recently fell below green cloud. Recent bearish kumo twist. Bearish TK Cross. LS recently fell below price. 3D: Price below green cloud. Bearish kumo twist. LS below price. C Clamp is resolving itself. Daily: Price below red cloud, bearish TK cross, LS below price. Recently closed below Tenkan after it served as week support. 12hchart: recently fell out of red cloud and had a bullish TK cross - it is clearly confused. 6h: failed to stay inside cloud after getting a bullish kumo twist. Bullish TK cross, LS below. TD Sequential: Monthly: red 4 Weekly: red 9 3d: red 1 1d: red 4 (threatening price flip) Visible Range: heavy resistance at $6,500, wearing out support at $5,882 - $6,490 BTC Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +/- 0% 1d: +1.35% 1w: -5.54% 2w: -2.11% 1m: -4.86% Bollinger Bands: flattening out and tightening on daily. 3d and weekly on lower half of band. Trendline: Downtrend from triangle will be waiting at $7,500. Could drawn bull trend by using 6/29 and 7/12 on the daily chart. Daily Trend: Bearish since 7/9 Fractals: Weekly - UP: $9,945 DOWN: $5,788 Daily - UP: $6,843 DOWN: $5,788 On Balance Volume: Large bull div in weekly. 3d shows flat volume since 2/6 Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: Moving averages are a strong sell. Oscillators are neutral “As for me, I have no desire to carry the football from end zone to end zone. Just give me the territory between the 20 yard lines.” @PeterLBrandt Yard line of trend: Top: $19,776 Projected Bottom: $4,000 Field: $15,776 in length 87.15% of expected bear market is complete, therefore we are on the 13 yard line. Conclusion: The TD Sequential is the most important indicator for me right now. Want a 9 on the daily to come on Wednesday the 18th and the red 9 on the weekly to close this Sunday. This is why I am bearish over the next 1-5 days. I expect the price to fall to $4,500 - $5,000 by the 18th. If all three of those boxes get checked then it will be time to build a large long position. This is why I am bullish over the next 6 days - 1 month. I do not believe this market has found a bottom and that is why I am still bearish for the next 1 month - 6 months.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 136)Continuing with the new theme please see the checklist and notes below. Conclusion is the same as yesterday . Outlook: 1-6 days: bearish 7 days - 1 month: bullish 1 month - 6 months: bearish 6+ months: super bullish Yesterday’s analysis: OBV consolidating, Weekly 9, Daily amended countdown, resistance from 50 day MA. Expected downtrend through Sunday and then a bounce off the weekly 9. Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,150 R: $6,289 $ 6,200 BTCUSDSHORTS: Shorts at horizontal and trend support levels as they continue to diverge with the longs. BB’s show plenty of room for shorts to build. Funding Rates: longs pay shorts 0.01% EMA’s (12 & 26): Bearish crossover from 1minute - 1week MA crossovers: bearish FIB’s: Expecting 0.236 to breakdown this week Candlestick analysis: Weekly and 3d tweezer top + bearish engulfing Ichimoku Cloud: 1W: Price below bullish cloud. Bearish kumo twist. Bearish TK Cross. LS recently fell below price. 3D: Price below very thin cloud. C Clamp seems to be resolving itself D: Price below bearish cloud. Bearish TK cross. LS below price. Just broke down below Tenkan TD Sequential: Weekly 9 seems very likely at this point. Red 1 on 3d following a 3 candle correction. Red 3 on daily after a completed count Visible Range: $5,775 as the major local support level. $4,000 as biggest area of support over last year 50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): X BTC Price Spreadsheet: X Bollinger Bands: 4h - 12h hugging bottom. 1d has some room to go as does 3d. Trendline: Hyperwave at $5,000 (green). Downtrend from triangle at ~$7,500 (purple) Daily Trend: 3 day bear trend is starting to form a descending triangle. Fractals: D: up - $6,800 | down - $5,778 On Balance Volume: Daily coming for a 125,800 retest which has been a big level of support over the last month. Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: Oscillators are neutral and MA’s are a sell across the board. “As for me, I have no desire to carry the football from end zone to end zone. Just give me the territory between the 20 yard lines.” @PeterLBrandt Yard line of trend: Top: $19,776 Projected Bottom: $4,000 Field: $15,776 in length 87.15% of expected bear market is complete, therefore we are on the 13 yard line. Conclusion: Expecting down trend to continue for another 5-6 days. Interested to see if is is a slow grind or if we get capitulation after breaking down $5,775. Feeling like it is too late to open a short and am planning on a large long position position from $4,500 - $5,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 135)I am going to try doing things a little differently moving forward. The bottom line is that I have been spending much more time on this each day and seeing too little return in terms of networking and community interaction. The checklist below is what I go through every day. It is a list of my most important indicators in order of importance. There are so many different variables that it can be easy to get paralysis by analysis. My skill is being able to look at all of them and come to a concise conclusion. If this checklist helps you develop a consistent process then it is yours to use free of charge! Also feel free to skip the analysis and go straight to the conclusion at the bottom. Yesterday’s analysis: Weekly OBV div, Weekly TD countdown, 6 hour cloud, and moving average crossovers. Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,275 R: $6,377 | $6,560 | $6,660 BTCUSDSHORTS: Fitting into downward channel. Rebound didn’t test top end of channel. Instead it found resistance at 23,000. Hanging man forming. Looks like we will go for a retest of 20,000 at a minimum. Bearish cross on EMAs. Divergence in weekly long:short is significant and starting to angle back for convergence. Longs are high, shorts have room to rally. Also longs paying shorts. Div in 6 hour long:short ratio is as big as we have seen it in 2018 Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% EMA’s (12 & 26): Angling down. No longer posturing for bullish crossover. MA crossovers: Bearish. After flattening out they are angling down and spread out indicating a continued bearish trend. FIB’s: Currently bouncing off 0.382 and illustrates why we haven’t gotten to $5,00 yet. Candlestick analysis: Spinning tops, and hammers on 4h chart at support. 12 & 6 hour look to be forming a bear flag. 3day tweezer top + bearish engulfing. Weekly tweezer top and bottom?! Ichimoku Cloud: 6h is interesting. Currently at cloud + kijun support after failing to breakout. Recent bullish kumo twist. Recent TK cross on 12 hour, LS above price, Bearish cloud that the price failed to support. Price below cloud on weekly making it fully bearish. TD Sequential: Weekly 9. Would have had a green 9 on daily if 7th candle closed $16 higher. Tells me the next 7 days should be bearish (in line with original projection) and then we could get a nice bounce off the weekly 9. Visible Range: Huge gap from $4,800 - $5,500. Huge resistance up to $7,000. Slight relief until $7,775 then biggest resistance dating back 1 year. 50 & 200 MA’s (calculate % difference): X BTC Price Spreadsheet: X Bollinger Bands (1 week, 1 day, 4 hour): D: at MA, bands are tight. 3d: resisted right below MA. W: attempting to bounce off bottom band. Trendline: Down: $7,450 Up: $5,000 Daily Trend: Bearish, and at support. Fractals: Up: $6,841 Down: $5,786 On Balance Volume: Noticed that the range is getting tighter. Slapped on some BB’s and can start to see some similarities with 2016 Buy/Sell Sentiment on Trading View: RSI back below 45, stoch pulling back. All MA’s are sell except for volume weighted MA. MACD approaching 0.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
4
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 134)Yesterday we examined the weekly chart and noted the strong buy signal from the Stochastic as well as the Tweezer Bottom from last week. I also noted that the RSI had climbed back above 50 for the first time in two months and also pointed out bullish divergences in the weekly and daily OBV . We have also been waiting for a few days on the 50 and 200 period MA ’s to crossover on the 4 hour chart as well as the 12 and 26 period EMA ’s to cross over on the daily chart. Unless something out of the ordinary happens the 50 and 200 MA’s should be crossing on the 4 hour chart sometime today. That is a relatively strong buy signal and is something to keep your eye on. If looking to build a bullish position then I would recommend using 50% of your normal position size due to betting against the trend. Enter ½ of that position upon the crossover on the 4 hour chart and add the rest after the 12 & 26 EMA’s cross on the daily chart. We have been challenging the resistance at $6,800 over the past week and I do not expect it to hold much longer. As soon as the price breaks through that level I am expecting a 15 minute candle to take us straight to $7,500 where the next significant area of resistance will be waiting. Setting a stop entry order at $6,826 could be a good idea as well. The divergence in the daily OBV disappeared as quickly as it showed up, however the divergence in the weekly is still evident. 1d 1w The Ichimoku Clouds are in the process of turning bullish on the lower time frames. The 4 hour cloud turned fully bullish on the 4th of July. The price has been attempting to break out of the 6 hour cloud over the past 36 hours and we just re entered the 12 hour cloud. 6h 12h The bullish indicators are mounting, however keep in mind that the resistance is going to be very strong from here to $8,500. The visible range volume profile shows the amount of volume at certain price levels. The larger the volume bars the more significant the resistance will be. As you can see below the bulls will be fighting an uphill battle in the weeks to come. I am still strongly considering opening a long upon the moving average crossovers. I am viewing a pump to $7,500 - $8,000 as a very likely outcome in the next 7-10 days. If I do decide to enter it will be for a maximum of 50% of my normal position. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don't miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC:USD 4 hour chart DAILY UPDATE (day 133)Yesterday we looked at the reasons why I am expecting a $750 - $1,000 pump from the current price level. Today we will look at the mounting bullish indicators and ask ourselves if they are enough to bet against the bear trend. Today is Sunday and we only have a few hours left before the weekly candle closes. We are on a red 8 out of 9 on the TD Sequential and I would really like to see the the countdown complete before this pump continues. If we rally through $6,886 in the next couple hours then we will get a price flip before the red 9. If the countdown doesn't complete this time then it is very likely to complete in the future before this bear markets comes to an end. We are bouncing strong off the Stochastic buy signal and the Tweezer bottom . I do think there is plenty of room for this dead cat to bounce, however I am hoping that it doesn’t happen too fast such that it ruins the countdown to a 9. The RSI is back above 50 on the daily chart for the first time in two months. I view this like the 50 yard line of a football field. The bulls are now on offense and getting close to scoring position. This is an important confirmation for me when considering a long. There are currently multiple divergences in the On Balance Volume . One in the daily chart and one in the weekly. This is indicative of bigger players building a long position. The price has stayed level and the buying volume has spiked. That tells me that the proverbial smart money is accumulating at these levels and that is a very good sign for the bulls. The 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the daily chart are posturing for a bullish crossover as well as the 50 and 200 period MA ’s on the 4 hour chart. Longing one or both of those buy signals is becoming more and more attractive. If you elect to do so then I would suggest using ½ of your normal position size due to betting against the trend. A profit target of $7,500 - $8,000 is reasonable and a 5% stop loss provides a favorable risk:reward. I am going to remain on the sidelines for the time being and will be strongly considering buying each of the moving average crossovers. The main reason I am being cautious is because of the visible range volume profile . It is showing resistance stacked up from here to $9,000 with a big gap at $5,000 that is begging to be filled. Shorting this bounce and longing $5,000 are my priorities and it will not be a cause for much concern if I miss a move in between. Thank you for reading! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Smash the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that clicking the like is good karma!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTCUSD is consolidation over?From our previous analysis and its updates it was clearly seen that BTC went out of the triangle and now is preparing for the next wave of growth. After it was pumped above Fib 0.786 level the price started to consolidate and now it has bounced back from the mentioned Fibonacci level which is now strong support. Nevertheless, uncertainty about BTC price movement is going to end only in the beginning of April. Till this moment there are still 2 scenarios: 1. Price continues its bounce and moves higher to the next level around $10 800 2. Volume goes down and bounce stops, the price follows Stoch RSI forecast and moves back to the triangle and decreases till its lower edge around $6 400 Conclusion: BTC will obviously grow up and reach new ATH in the long term, however in the short term the price may retest 6k level before it starts a new wave of growth
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Skyrexio
BTCUSD Daily analysis - Short bear. Long bull.A daily and 4hr chart analysis. Daily - Bearish day after a bullish rally. Huge historical resistance hit. Possible retrace to 9-10k. Major support at 10k but a retest of 150 EMA, 9500-9700, likely. 4hr - If the Moving averages cross (Red and Green) expect trend reversal confirmation from 90% of analysts, including myself. My only concern at this point is the upper trendline. - The last time the moving averages crossed (Golden Cross) was October 2017 and a 400% price rise. Opening short to 9700 If we see a 9500-9700 bounce, opening long.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by jackdavidpiney
BTCUSD look to buy on weaknessBuy above 11887. Stop loss at 10446. Take profit at 15221. Reason for the trading strategy (technically): Bitcoin’s price has continued to rise strongly and it also continues to obey strong technical as seen in our various Fibonacci retracements and projections. The recent swing low that occurred at 12720 was purely a 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% + 161.8% Fibonacci extension. We are bullish on this and the key question is where to find a good entry level. We look to buy above 11887 support (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support) with first key level of support seen at 12116 (100% Fibonacci extension). Our profit target would be at 15221 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance). Stochastic (34,5,3) main support is at 21% and we should expect it to drop towards that level which corresponds to our buy entry. Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally): While it’s important to find out what is driving the mega climb on Bitcoin, it’s likely that this run is very much fuelled by speculation over value as one of the key points is the stark contrast we’re seeing versus the other major cryptocurrencies. While Bitcoin has been rallying, Ethereum, Ripples and Litecoin were all ranging and some even dropping despite being much better and suited for day-to-day transactions – which is what the whole concept of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are meant to achieve. Hence this shows that the appetite we’re seeing right now is not so much for cryptocurrencies and how they would radically redefine the financial system. Based on this, we can expect further volatility and price to obey much more key technical levels as that is the main area the markets would be looking at especially with a lack of key fundamentals.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MEX_Exchange