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Btcusdanalysis

BTC Rejection from QML Zone: Towards on 113,600 SupportHello guys! This chart shows a QML (Quasimodo Level) setup in play on Bitcoin. After price created a new high and engulfed the previous structure, it returned to the QML zone (around $119K–$121K) and reacted exactly as expected: strong rejection. The sharp selloff from the QML area confirms a bearish shift in structure, and now the momentum is tilted to the downside. The next key level to watch is the 113,600 demand zone, where the price may either bounce or consolidate. As long as the price stays below the QML zone, bears have control. You should consider that the main trend is bullish, and the stop loss may be hit, so please manage your risk!
Short
by melikatrader94
16
BTC-----Buy around 118000, target 120000 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on July 18: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, the K-line pattern continued to rise, the price was above the moving average, and the attached indicator was golden cross and running with shrinking volume. The large-scale upward trend is still very obvious. After the previous strong performance, there was a short-term shock correction trend. According to the current trend rules, it is a correction and a trend of market demand. The trend has not changed; the short-term hourly chart yesterday's European session price support rebound, the current K-line pattern continued to rise and the attached indicator was golden cross, so we still have to look at the continuation of the break in the day and the European session. The moving average support position is 120,000 area; the high point is near 121,000 area. Today's BTC short-term contract trading strategy: Buy in the 118,000 area, stop loss in the 117,000 area, target the 121,000 area, break the position and look at the 121,500 area;
by NicolaZhu
Bitcoin at the Edge of the Fibonacci Gate - Silent Strain.⊣ ⟁ BTC/USD - BINANCE - (CHART: 1D) - (Jul 18, 2025). ◇ Analysis Price: $118,866.60. ⊣ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval - (1D): ▦ EMA9 - (Exponential Moving Average - 9 Close): ∴ EMA9 is currently positioned at $119,077.81, closely tracking the current price, acting as dynamic micro-support; ∴ The slope of EMA9 remains upward, with price consistently closing above it in the past sessions; ∴ Compression candles are forming above this line, suggesting it is being defended as a tactical floor. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA9 is structurally supportive, signaling short-term bullish control beneath compression. ⊣ ▦ EMA21 - (Exponential Moving Average - 21 Close): ∴ EMA21 is placed at $118,537.29 and holds a clear upward slope; ∴ Recent pullbacks have tested the region near EMA21 but failed to close beneath it; ∴ EMA21 is establishing itself as the primary mid-range buffer zone within this bullish phase. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA21 confirms intermediate momentum preservation and mid-term trend integrity. ⊢ ▦ EMA50 - (Exponential Moving Average - 50 Close): ∴ EMA50 is located at $116,804.80 and remains untouched during the current rally phase; ∴ The distance between EMA21 and EMA50 is widening, confirming structural momentum; ∴ This line now functions as the lower tier of the bullish envelope - a defensive anchor. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA50 reflects resilient bullish understructure and rising support basin. ▦ Fibonacci Retracement - (ATH = $122,056.95 / Low = $74,623.79): ∴ Price is currently positioned just under the 0.786 level, a classic tension zone before ATH retests; ∴ The 0.618 level has already been claimed and held as support, showing strength through key retracements; ∴ The market is coiling between 0.786 and 1.000 in preparation for decisive expansion or rejection. ✴️ Conclusion: BTC sits within the golden gate - structurally pressurized near final resistance thresholds. ⊢ ▦ Bollinger Bands: ∴ Bands are visibly contracting, forming a volatility funnel around the current price zone; ∴ The price is maintaining proximity to the upper band without closing beyond it; ∴ The base band remains far beneath ($116k zone), indicating untriggered potential. ✴️ Conclusion: Volatility is compressing structurally; directional resolution is imminent. ⊢ ▦ Volume + EMA21: ∴ Volume bars have declined steadily during this upper-range consolidation; ∴ EMA21 on volume confirms weakening participation relative to early July moves; ∴ Absence of breakout-volume suggests either stealth accumulation or passive stalling. ✴️ Conclusion: Volume behavior is non-confirmatory - the structure floats without conviction. ⊢ ▦ RSI - (21) + EMA9: ∴ RSI(21) currently prints 60.45, above its own EMA9 at 59.41, suggesting net upward pressure; ∴ The RSI slope remains neutral-to-positive without entering overbought; ∴ The absence of bearish divergence confirms internal momentum coherence. ✴️ Conclusion: RSI structure is clean, moderate, and aligned with sustainable trend energy. ⊢ ▦ Stochastic RSI - (3,3,21,9): ∴ K = 78.78 | D = 71.55 - both above 70, nearing the overbought ceiling; ∴ The fast line (K) shows minor inflection but no confirmed cross; ∴ Momentum is elevated, but historical context shows price can remain extended. ✴️ Conclusion: Momentum is entering saturation zone - caution on short-term exhaustion. ⊢ ▦ MACD - (9,21): ∴ MACD line (540.52) remains above the signal line (414.93) in sustained bullish crossover; ∴ The histogram has begun flattening, indicating reduced acceleration; ∴ There is no bearish cross yet, but momentum build is slowing. ✴️ Conclusion: MACD supports bullish continuation, but thrust intensity is decaying. ⊢ ▦ OBV + EMA9: ∴ OBV reads 71.13M and is currently flat, with no new highs in accumulation; ∴ EMA9 on OBV closely hugs the raw OBV line, confirming stagnation; ∴ Prior upward surges in OBV are not being extended, showing tactical pause in conviction. ✴️ Conclusion: Liquidity expansion has halted; OBV structure is tactically neutral. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle: ∴ The BTC/USD structure is entering a compressed apex between structural momentum (EMA stack, RSI, MACD) and tactical exhaustion signals (Stochastic RSI, Bollinger Band constriction, flattening OBV); ∴ Price is stabilizing just beneath the ATH gate ($122,056), indicating a threshold scenario - where breakout and rejection probabilities are approaching parity; ∴ Volume decline reflects the absence of forced participation, and suggests that the next move will be event-triggered or liquidity-engineered. The current environment favors volatility re-expansion, not trend reversal; ✴️ This is a threshold phase: structurally bullish, tactically suspended, awaiting ignition. ⊢ ∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ Exchange Netflow Total + EMA9: ∴ Current Netflow: -938 Bitcoins - sustained negative flow over time indicates coins leaving exchanges; ∴ Persistent outflows reflect holding sentiment and reduced immediate sell pressure; ∴ Price action shows historical upside alignment when netflows remain negative across clusters. ✴️ Conclusion: Exchange behavior signals macro holding bias, not liquidation cycles. ⊢ ▦ Binary CDD + EMA9: ∴ Binary CDD has spiked into high activity zones in the past week, showing awakened dormant coins; ∴ This metric historically precedes localized tops when synchronized with weak flows; ∴ However, no consistent clusters are forming - signals remain scattered. ✴️ Conclusion: Binary CDD reflects isolated movements, not systemic awakening or distribution. ⊢ ▦ Exchange Whale Ratio + EMA9: ∴ Current ratio hovers at ~0.62 - elevated but not extreme; ∴ Sustained whale activity near 0.60+ can precede volatility events; ∴ Trendline is rising since May, showing gradual uptick in dominance from top senders. ✴️ Conclusion: Whale activity is tactically elevated, implying latent strategic intent. ⊢ ▦ Supply-Adjusted Dormancy + EMA9: ∴ Dormancy values are near historical lows, indicating old coins are staying inactive; ∴ EMA9 confirms a downward trend in dormant supply movement; ∴ Long-term holders are not distributing at this level. ✴️ Conclusion: Structural dormancy supports holder conviction - no exit signals from old supply. ⊢ ▦ Realized Cap + EMA9: ∴ Realized Cap is now exceeding $1T, rising consistently without parabolic spikes; ∴ EMA(9) and line are in lockstep - a healthy ascent; ∴ No acceleration = no blow-off = sustainable revaluation. ✴️ Conclusion: Value accumulation remains organic, not euphoric. ⊢ ▦ MVRV Ratio + EMA9: ∴ MVRV sits at 2.36 - below historical overvaluation levels (>3.0); ∴ EMA(9) confirms gradual slope upward, consistent with price; ∴ Ratio is not overheated - risk/reward remains structurally favorable. ✴️ Conclusion: MVRV indicates non-euphoric regime - mid-phase of value appreciation. ⊢ ▦ BTC vs GOLD vs S&P500 - (BGemetrix Comparative Graph): ∴ BTC continues to outperform both GOLD and SPX in long-term slope, even after corrections; ∴ Current phase shows GOLD flattening and SPX slightly lagging BTC in verticality; ∴ This divergence hints at BTC leading in speculative rotation while traditional assets stabilize. ✴️ Conclusion: BTC holds macro-dominance position, operating as the apex volatility proxy in current intermarket structure. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle: ∴ Despite short-term compression, the on-chain structure reveals no distribution threats; ∴ Holder conviction, realized valuation, and MVRV slope all suggest controlled structural appreciation, not mania; ∴ Whales are tactically present, but dormancy and exchange flows confirm no mass exit; ∴ This is an internally coherent, tactically patient regime. ✴️ Bitcoin is preparing, not peaking. ⊢ 𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation: ▦ Structurally Bullish - Tactically Suspended: ∴ All key EMA's (9/21/50) are stacked and rising; price remains elevated yet non-parabolic; ∴ Fibonacci apex is active, with price compressing beneath the ATH zone ($122,056), not retreating; ∴ On-chain intelligence confirms long-term conviction, with no distribution from whales or dormants. ✴️ Conclusion: The system retains structural strength; pressure is latent, not expired. The architecture is bullish, not euphoric. ⊢ ▦ Tactical Range Caution: ∴ Stochastic RSI and MACD show early-stage exhaustion; ∴ Volume has declined into apex, favoring liquidity traps or volatility bursts; ∴ Whale Ratio elevation implies pre-positioning behavior, not public confirmation. ✴️ Conclusion: Tactical maneuvering is dominant. Breakout potential exists but is not trustable until confirmed by volume and displacement. ⊢ ⧉ Cryptorvm Dominvs · ⚜️ MAGISTER ARCANVM ⚜️ · Vox Primordialis ⌬ - Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy - ⌬ ⧉ ⊢
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Magister_Arcanvm
The Setup: Bullish Breaker in Play!Yesterday, BTC smashed into a strong bullish breaker and bounced like a champ. Today, it’s retracing back to this key level, setting up for what I expect to be another explosive buy reaction. Why? Because this breaker is rock-solid, and the price action is giving us all the right signals! Plus, it’s Friday—the last trading day of the week—and I’m betting BTC will stretch its legs to cover the weekly range. 🏃‍♂️ 🎯 Trade Details: Where to Jump In Buy Area: Right now, the price is teasing the breaker zone. Stop Loss: Protect your capital with a stop loss at around ~117,700. Target: We’re aiming for the Buyside Liquidity sitting pretty around 121,000. That’s a juicy move with solid risk-reward potential! 💪 🧠 Why This Trade Makes Sense Bullish Breaker Strength: This level has proven itself as a springboard for price action. Weekly Range Play: Fridays often see BTC push to cover its weekly range, and we’re in prime position to catch it. Liquidity Grab: The Buyside Liquidity at 121,000 is like a magnet for price—let’s ride it there! ⚠️ Risk Management Reminder Always trade smart! Use proper position sizing, stick to your risk management rules, and don’t go all-in like it’s a casino. Keep those stops tight to avoid getting wrecked by any sudden volatility. 😎 💬 Join the Conversation! What do you think of this setup? Are you jumping on this BTC train or waiting for more confirmation? Drop your thoughts in the comments below! 👇 Also, if you like this idea, smash that LIKE button ❤️ and follow for more trade ideas to keep your portfolio poppin’! 🚀 Happy trading, and let’s stack those pips! 💰 #BTC #CryptoTrading #BuyTrade #Bullish #TradingView
Long
by MRJ_Tradez
Bitcoin Extends Rally – Eyeing $121K+📊 Market Overview: •Bitcoin is trading around $120,013, up +0.0149% on the day, with a daily range of $117,715 – $120,691 — continuing momentum after a historic rally. •The rally is supported by strong inflows into BTC ETFs, institutional demand, and pro-crypto legislation recently passed in the U.S. House of Representatives. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key resistance: $121,000 – $122,000 (next technical target post breakout) • Nearest support: $118,000 – $119,000 (aligns with 50 MA and previous consolidation zone) • EMA 09: Price is above the EMA 09, confirming strong short-term bullish momentum • Candlesticks / Volume / Momentum: RSI and MACD remain bullish; rising volume in ETFs and institutional flows confirm upward momentum. 📌 Outlook: Bitcoin is likely to extend its gains in the short term if it holds above $119,000–$120,000 and institutional buying continues. • Holding above $120,000 → potential to test $121,000 – $122,000 • Falling below $119,000 → risk of correction to $118,000 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: BUY BTC/USD at: 119,500 – 120,000 🎯 TP: 121,500 ❌ SL: 118,500 SELL BTC/USD at: 121,000 – 122,000 (if bearish reversal signals appear) 🎯 TP: 120,000 ❌ SL: 122,500
OKX:BTCUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
1
Bitcoin Strategic Compression Beneath the Cloud Gate.⊣ ⟁ BTC/USD - BINANCE - (CHART: 4H) - (July 17, 2025). ◇ Analysis Price: $118,099.62. ⊣ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval – (4H): ▦ EMA9 - (Exponential Moving Average - 9 Close): ∴ EMA9 is currently positioned at $118,286.83, marginally above the current price of $118,099.62; ∴ The slope of the EMA9 has begun to turn sideways-to-downward, indicating loss of short-term acceleration; ∴ The price has crossed below EMA9 within the last two candles, suggesting an incipient rejection of immediate bullish continuation. ✴️ Conclusion: Short-term momentum has weakened, positioning EMA 9 as immediate dynamic resistance. ⊢ ▦ EMA21 - (Exponential Moving Average - 21 Close): ∴ EMA21 is measured at $118,018.67, positioned slightly below both price and EMA9, indicating a recent tightening of trend structure; ∴ The slope of EMA21 remains positive, preserving the medium-range bullish structure intact; ∴ EMA21 has been tested multiple times and held as support since July 15 - confirming tactical reliability as dynamic floor. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA21 stands as a critical pivot zone; any sustained breach would denote structural stress. ⊢ ▦ EMA50 - (Exponential Moving Average - 50 Close): ∴ EMA50 is currently located at $116,240.85, well below current price action; ∴ The curve maintains a healthy positive inclination, affirming preservation of broader intermediate trend; ∴ No contact or proximity to EMA50 over the last 20 candles - indicating strong bullish detachment and buffer zone integrity. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA50 confirms medium-term bullish alignment; not yet challenged. ⊢ ▦ EMA200 - (Exponential Moving Average - 200 Close): ∴ EMA200 stands at $110,539.69, forming the base of the entire 4H structure; ∴ The gradient is gradually rising, reflecting accumulation over a long time horizon; ∴ The distance between price and EMA200 reflects extended bullish positioning, yet also opens risk for sharp reversion if acceleration collapses. ✴️ Conclusion: Long-term structure remains bullish; early signs of overextension exist. ⊢ ▦ Ichimoku Cloud - (9, 21, 50, 21): ∴ Price is currently above the Kumo (cloud), placing the pair within a bullish regime; ∴ Tenkan-sen (conversion) and Kijun-sen (base) lines show narrowing separation, suggesting momentum compression; ∴ Senkou Span A > Span B, and the cloud ahead is bullishly twisted, though thinning - indicating potential vulnerability despite structural advantage. ✴️ Conclusion: Bullish regime intact, but loss of momentum and cloud compression warrant caution. ⊢ ▦ Volume + EMA21: ∴ Current volume for the latest candle is 3 BTC, compared to the EMA21 of 84 BTC; ∴ This indicates an extremely low participation phase, often associated with distribution zones or indecisive consolidation; ∴ Previous impulsive candles (July 15) reached well above 100 BTC - the current contraction is stark and strategically significant. ✴️ Conclusion: Absence of volume threatens trend continuation; energy depletion apparent. ⊢ ▦ RSI - (21) + EMA9: ∴ RSI (21) is positioned at 55.73, marginally above neutral zone; ∴ EMA 9 of RSI is 57.71, crossing downward against RSI - bearish micro signal; ∴ No divergence is present versus price action - oscillator confirms current stagnation rather than exhaustion. ✴️ Conclusion: RSI losing strength above neutral; lacks momentum for breakout, but no capitulation. ⊢ ▦ Stoch RSI - (3,3,21,9): ∴ %K is 21.44, %D is 45.34 - both pointing downward, in deacceleration phase; ∴ Recent rejection from overbought zone without full reset into oversold - signaling weak bullish thrust; ∴ Historical cycles show rhythmical reversals near current levels, but only with supportive volume, which is absent now. ✴️ Conclusion: Short-term momentum failed to sustain overbought breakout - micro-correction expected. ⊢ ▦ MACD - (9, 21): ∴ MACD line is at -104.80, Signal line at 268.16 - large separation, histogram deeply negative; ∴ The bearish crossover occurred with declining volume, implying fading momentum rather than aggressive sell-off; ∴ No bullish divergence formed yet - continuation of correction remains technically favored. ✴️ Conclusion: MACD confirms trend exhaustion; no reversal in sight. ⊢ ▦ OBV + EMA 9: ∴ OBV is 71.13M, perfectly aligned with its EMA9 - indicating equilibrium in volume flow; ∴ No directional bias in accumulation or distribution - flatlining suggests passive environment; ∴ Prior OBV uptrend has stalled since July 15 - reinforcing narrative of hesitation. ✴️ Conclusion: Institutional flow is neutral; no aggressive positioning detected. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle: The current price structure presents a classic post-impulse compression configuration within a preserved bullish environment. Despite the higher timeframe alignment, multiple short-term indicators exhibit tactical dissonance and signs of momentum decay. This inconsistency reflects a market caught between structural optimism and tactical hesitation. ♘ Key strategic signals - Structural Alignment: ∴ All major EMA's (9, 21, 50, 200) remain stacked in bullish order with no bearish crossovers imminent; ∴ Price remains above the Ichimoku Cloud and above EMA50 - both confirming structural dominance by buyers. ♘ Momentum Degradation: ∴ RSI (21) is drifting below its EMA9, weakening the momentum required for further upside continuation; ∴ Stochastic RSI has rolled over aggressively, failing to reach oversold before reversing - mid-cycle weakness is confirmed. ♘ Volume Collapse: ∴ The current volume profile is critically weak - 3 Bitcoin against an average of 84 Bitcoins (EMA21); ∴ Price attempting to sustain above EMA's with no conviction signals distribution or passivity. ♘ MACD & OBV: ∴ MACD histogram remains deep in negative territory, and no bullish crossover is visible; ∴ OBV is flat - neither accumulation nor distribution dominates, leaving directional thrust suspended. ✴️ Oracle Insight: ∴ The technical field is Structurally Bullish, but Tactically Compressed. ∴ No breakout should be expected unless volume decisively returns above baseline (84 Bitcoins EMA); ∴ Below $117,800, the structure risks transition into a corrective phase; ∴ Above $118,450, potential trigger zone for bullish extension if accompanied by volume surge. ♘ Strategic posture: ∴ Wait-and-observe regime activated; ∴ No entry condition satisfies both structure and momentum at present; ∴ Tactical neutrality is advised until confirmation. ⊢ ∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence - (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ Exchange Reserve - (All Exchanges): ∴ The total Bitcoin reserves held on all exchanges continue a sharp and uninterrupted decline, now at ~2.4M BTC, down from over 3.4M in mid-2022; ∴ This downtrend has accelerated particularly after January 2025, with a visible drop into new lows - no accumulation rebound observed; ∴ Historically, every prolonged depletion of exchange reserves correlates with structural bullish setups, as supply becomes increasingly illiquid. ✴️ Conclusion: On-chain supply is structurally diminishing, confirming long-term bullish regime intact - mirrors technical EMA alignment. ⊢ ▦ Fund Flow Ratio - (All Exchanges): ∴ Current Fund Flow Ratio stands at 0.114, which is well below historical danger thresholds seen near 0.20-0.25 during local tops; ∴ The ratio has remained consistently low throughout the 2025 uptrend, indicating that on-chain activity is not directed toward exchange-based selling; ∴ Spikes in this indicator tend to precede local corrections - but no such spike is currently present, reinforcing the notion of non-threatening capital flow. ✴️ Conclusion: Capital is not rotating into exchanges for liquidation - volume weakness seen in 4H chart is not linked to sell intent. ⊢ ▦ Miners' Position Index - (MPI): ∴ The MPI sits firmly below the red threshold of 2.0, and currently ranges in sub-neutral levels (~0.5 and below); ∴ This suggests that miners are not engaging in aggressive distribution, and are likely retaining Bitcoin off-exchange; ∴ Sustained low MPI readings during price advances confirm alignment with institutional and long-term accumulation behavior. ✴️ Conclusion: Miner behavior supports structural strength - no mining-induced supply pressure present at this stage. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle: ∴ Across the three strategic indicators, no on-chain evidence supports short-term weakness; ∴ Supply is declining - (Exchange Reserve ↓); ∴ Funds are not preparing for exit - (Flow Ratio stable); ∴ Miners are not selling - (MPI subdued). ✴️ This constellation reinforces the thesis of Structural Bullishness with Tactical Compression, and suggests that any pullback is not backed by foundational stress. ⊢ 𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation: ∴ The multi-timeframe EMA stack remains intact and aligned - (9 > 21 > 50 > 200); ∴ Price floats above Ichimoku Cloud, and above EMA21 support, confirming elevated positioning within a macro bull channel; ∴ On-chain metrics confirm supply contraction, miner retention, and absence of fund rotation toward exchanges - structure remains sovereign; ∴ RSI - (21) slips under its EMA9 with low amplitude, indicating absence of energetic flow; ∴ Stoch RSI fails to reset fully and points downward - suggesting premature momentum decay; ∴ MACD histogram remains negative, while volume is significantly beneath EMA baseline (3 BTC vs 84 BTC); ∴ Price faces resistance at Kijun-sen ($118.451), acting as tactical ceiling; no breakout signal detected. ⊢ ✴️ Interpretatio Finalis: ∴ Structural integrity remains unshaken - the architecture is bullish; ∴ Tactically, however, the battlefield is fogged - silence reigns in volume, hesitation in oscillators; ∴ A true continuation requires volume resurrection and resolution above $118,450. Until then, neutrality governs the edge. ⊢ ⧉ Cryptorvm Dominvs · ⚜️ MAGISTER ARCANVM ⚜️ · Vox Primordialis ⌬ - Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy - ⌬ ⧉ ⊢
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Magister_Arcanvm
$1.5 Billion ETF Inflows Could Push Bitcoin Price 4% to New ATHBINANCE:BTCUSDT is currently trading at $118,325, facing resistance at the $120,000 level. This resistance is crucial for Bitcoin if it wants to break back to its ATH of $123,218 . The 4.4% gap to reach the ATH indicates potential for growth, but Bitcoin needs to secure support above $120,000 for this to happen. This week, spot BINANCE:BTCUSDT exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw over $1.5 billion in inflows , a significant portion of which occurred in the last 48 hours during Bitcoin’s dip. The influx of institutional money highlights that investors are confident in Bitcoin’s potential despite the market cooling. If this trend persists, it could propel BINANCE:BTCUSDT price upward, as institutional support provides stability. If BINANCE:BTCUSDT can hold above $120,000 and push past $122,000, it could continue its ascent toward new all-time highs. The current market conditions and ETF inflows support a bullish outlook, with a significant chance of breaking the resistance. However, the risk of profit-taking remains , which could lead to a price drop. If BINANCE:BTCUSDT faces selling pressure, it could fall back to $115,000 , erasing a portion of recent gains. This would invalidate the bullish thesis, causing Bitcoin to retest lower support levels.
by aaryamann_shrivastava_bic
Bitcoin Parabolic Curve - 2022 to 2026 Market CycleThis line chart visualizes the current Bitcoin market cycle from the bear market bottom in November 2022. As you can see, the price has formed a parabolic curve, which was violated around the beginning of March. A couple of weeks later, a retest of the curve occurred, which was rejected. Later in April, the price of BTC was able to push back above the curve. There was another small dip below in June, but BTC was back above the curve by the end of June. I am also watching the Bitcoin monthly chart and, more specifically, the monthly Stochastic RSI indicator. As you can see in the chart below, between the second and third months after the market cycle peak, the Stochastic RSI indicator has always dropped below the "20" level, and was near zero at the close of the third month. Back in March and April, there was some speculation that the new all-time high set on January 20th at just over $109k was the peak for this market cycle. At the beginning of April, the Stochastic RSI dropped well below the 20 level but rebounded and was at 16.81 when the April candle closed. The May monthly candle closed with the Stochastic RSI at 31.45, and June closed at 50.17. This indicated to me that this market cycle was far from over. On July 14th, BTC set a new all-time high at just over $123,000, ending the speculation that this current market cycle had peaked. My assumption for now is that Bitcoin is still following a 4-year market cycle. If this is true, I would expect a market cycle peak sometime in the final months of this year. Either way, it has been a very interesting market cycle with huge changes for the crypto asset class.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Bigsky_Crypto
Bitcoin May Face Short-Term Pullback📊 Market Summary – Bitcoin trades around $118,009, retreating from its intraday high of $118,330 . – The recent rally was primarily fueled by $14.8 billion inflows into spot BTC ETFs, lifting BTC to an ATH of $123,000 on July 14 – Profit-taking has triggered a ~3% correction – Market awaits key CPI/PPI inflation data and regulatory clarity in the US to guide next moves. 📉 Technical Analysis • Resistance: $123,000 – $123,100 (all-time high zone, weekly candle top). • Support: $114,000 – $115,000 (potential retest zone, IH&S neckline, CME gap) • EMA 9: Price remains above all major EMAs (10/20/50/100/200 day) – bullish short-term trend • Candles / Volume / Momentum: • Confirmed inverted head and shoulders breakout above ~$113,000 neckline • RSI ~74 suggests overbought; short term pullback possible • MACD bullish but on chain volumes are cooling, reflecting profit taking 📌 Outlook – Expect a short-term cooldown/pullback toward $114,000–$115,000 for support testing. – If support holds and ETF inflows continue, BTC could resume rally toward $130,000–$140,000 💡 Trade Strategy 🟣 SELL BTC/USD upon break below $117,000–$118,000 during retrace 🎯 TP: $115,000 ❌ SL: $118,500 🟢 BUY BTC/USD at support $114,000–$115,000 🎯 TP: $120,000 – $123,000 ❌ SL: $113,000
OANDA:BTCUSDShort
by Mian-FXSignals
2
Clean BTC Trade – Bounce from Key Trendline SupportHi traders! , Analyzing BTC/USD on the 30-minute timeframe, we can observe that price is respecting the ascending channel and reacting to the dynamic trendline support (blue line). This bounce, aligned with prior structure, signals a potential bullish continuation. 🔹 Entry: 116,249 🔹 Take Profit (TP): 119,434 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): 113,105 Price remains above the 200 EMA while continuing to respect the ascending trendline, signaling sustained bullish structure. The RSI is showing a bullish divergence, which supports the idea of upward momentum. We also saw a strong reaction at the pivot point (115,373), and a bullish engulfing candle formed right near the trendline — adding further confirmation to this potential long setup. This long setup presents a favorable risk/reward ratio within the context of the broader trend. Targeting a clean break above previous resistance and return to the R1 zone. ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk and always use proper risk management
OKX:BTCUSDLong
by Trading-On-Top
BTC Bottom & New ATH..... when ?!!! Hello Guys There are some notes of BTC weekly Chart: 1. We have a new ATH every 4 years ( 1428-1477 ) days.. 2. After the ATH we take about ( 52-59 ) weeks to make a new bottom then we go up a little ... 3. Every time we reach a new ATH we drop down in a same angle (-55) before the new bull run starting .... look at my chart ( Red angles and curves ): ****** We dropped from ATH 2013 to Bottom 2015 by an angle ( -55 ) . ****** We dropped from ATH 2017 to Bottom 2018 by an angle ( -55 ) . ****** Same (24 July 2019) we dropped from local top to the local bottom by Angle ( -56 ) . ****** Will we drop from ATH 2021 to Bottom (2022 - 2023) by the same angle ( -55 or -56 )?? 4. In my opinion , I expect we will reach the final bottom between ( 26 December 2022 : 6 march 2023 ). 5. I don't care what will be the price of BTC then , but I care only for when will be the possible bottom !!. But if we can try to expect the price it will be in a range of ( 11900 : 9000$) ... Note:( 10K - 10500$) is very very strong demand area for BTC . ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Finally , I think the new ATH will not be before Nov 2025 ( 150k $ ). It is not a financial advice , I am only share my thoughts with u :) Thank u and good luck.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by KarimMohsen
8
Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar 4-Hour Chart (BTCUSD)4-hour chart displays the recent price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) as of July 11, 2025. The current price is $117,979.53, reflecting a 4-hour increase of $1,938.91 (+1.67%). The chart highlights a significant upward trend, with a notable breakout above the $114,719.92 resistance level, reaching up to $121,362.93. Key price levels include support at $116,625.93 and resistance at $121,362.93, with buy and sell options marked at the current price.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Alee_Gold_Trader
1
Global M2 Money Supply (70/84/90 Day offset) and $150k BTCI'm using Global M2 slightlty different than most here, and showing it behaves differently during different periods of the cycle. Many people say M2 leads Bitcoin by 10-12 weeks (70 - 84 Days) and I've seen periods where it does... But in this phase of the bull-run 90 days is working best. We can see the dip in M2 around now coinciding with the drop in Bitcoin prices. Of course, these are not directly correlated and can't be relied upon as predictive. But it's following pretty close, and overall looks great for further upside! I'll follow up with a video on this if anybody is interested.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BrettFogle
Bitcoin May Pause After Recent Highs📊 Market Move: Bitcoin (BTC) recently touched an intraday high of ~$122.8K after hitting new all-time highs, supported by a weaker USD, strong institutional inflows, and favorable U.S. regulatory developments (e.g., GENIUS Stablecoin Act, CLARITY Act, and Trump’s executive orders). However, rising volatility (DVOL) and a rebounding USD are signaling a possible short-term correction. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance: ~$123K–$125K • Nearest Support: ~$117K (with $110K as a major lower support zone) • EMA: Price is currently above the 9-day EMA → short-term trend remains bullish. • Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: • A cup-and-handle formation has emerged, typically a bullish continuation pattern, suggesting a possible 14% rally to ~$134.5K. • Momentum is still strong; RSI is elevated but not yet overbought (14-day stochastic RSI at ~79.4%). 📌 Outlook: Bitcoin may consolidate or experience a mild pullback in the short term around the $123K level, especially if the USD continues to strengthen or volatility spikes. However, a clean breakout above $125K could trigger a further rally toward the $134K–$146K range. 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: (Spot only – no leverage) 🔻 SELL Bitcoin/USD at: $123K–125K 🎯 TP: $117K ❌ SL: $126.5K 🔺 BUY Bitcoin/USD at: $117K–119K 🎯 TP: $123K–125K ❌ SL: $115K
OANDA:BTCUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
Bitcoin’s Wild Ride to New ATHs: What’s Next for Traders?Hello, TradingView warriors! 👋 Have you caught Bitcoin (BTC) smashing through a new all-time high (ATH) this Monday? 🎉 If you blinked, you might’ve missed it! But don’t worry, the crypto king isn’t done with its rollercoaster ride just yet. After soaring to new heights, BTC has pulled back for a retracement—not a full-on reversal, so hold your horses! 🐎 Whales are playing their usual games, setting traps for unsuspecting traders. Don’t fall prey to their tricks! 🦈 Let’s break down the key levels to watch and stay one step ahead. 💡 🔍 Key Levels to Watch on the Chart 1️⃣ 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) This 4H FVG is a thing of beauty—my personal favorite! 😍 But let’s be real, Bitcoin doesn’t care about aesthetics. This FVG is likely to act as the first resistance level. Here’s the plan: If respected, expect BTC to use this level as a springboard to catapult back toward the ATH. 🚀 If broken, BTC might slide toward the stronger resistance below. Keep your eyes peeled for how price reacts here! 👀 2️⃣ Daily Breaker Block (PD Array) This is the big one—a rock-solid resistance zone on the daily timeframe. I’m leaning toward BTC dipping into this Breaker Block to clear out liquidity before making its next big move to retest the ATH. 🏦 This level is a magnet for price action, so don’t sleep on it! 😴 🛠️ Trading Strategy: Stay Sharp! Patience is your best friend right now, traders. 🙏 Don’t rush into trades without confirmation. Watch how BTC interacts with these two levels: 4H FVG: Look for rejection or a breakout to gauge short-term direction. Daily Breaker Block: If price dips here, it’s likely hunting liquidity before the next leg up. Wait for clear price action before jumping in—let the market show its hand! 🃏 Stay disciplined, avoid the whale traps, and let’s ride this BTC wave together. 🌊 📚 Want More? Follow Me! If you’re hungry for more technical analysis insights and market updates, hit that follow button! 📈 I share tips, tricks, and breakdowns to help you navigate the markets like a pro. Let’s level up your trading game together! 💪 What’s your take on BTC’s next move? Drop your thoughts below, and let’s discuss! 💬 Happy trading, and may the profits be with you! 📈
Long
by MRJ_Tradez
Bitcoin Hits New Highs: Is The Institutional Money Here To Stay?Bitcoin Hits New Highs, Gains Stability and Scale in Its Institutional Era: Will It Last? From a volatile and often misunderstood outsider, Bitcoin has embarked on a remarkable transformation, evolving into what many now see as a foundational financial layer. This new era is not fueled by the fleeting whims of retail hype, but by the calculated, long-term strategies of professional capital. The steady influx of institutional investors is profoundly reshaping Bitcoin's character, taming its notorious volatility and broadening its accessibility to everyday individuals. This seismic shift begs the question: is this newfound stability and scale a permanent feature of the financial landscape, or a transient phase in Bitcoin's tumultuous history? The Dawn of a New Epoch: The Institutional Stampede For years, the narrative surrounding Bitcoin was one of a grassroots monetary experiment, a digital curiosity championed by cypherpunks and early internet adopters. Wall Street remained a skeptical spectator, wary of the asset's wild price swings, its lack of regulatory clarity, and its disruptive potential. However, Bitcoin's unyielding resilience and its core value proposition of a decentralized, finite digital asset gradually wore down this institutional resistance. The floodgates did not just creak open; they were blown apart with the regulatory approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). This landmark decision marked a clear and decisive tipping point, a formal invitation for mainstream finance to embrace the world's first cryptocurrency. This regulatory green light has had a profound and cascading impact. It has, in a single stroke, legitimized Bitcoin in the eyes of the most conservative financial establishments. More importantly, it has provided a familiar, regulated, and highly accessible entry point for a vast and previously untapped ocean of capital. Exposure to Bitcoin is no longer confined to specialized crypto-native platforms, which often carried a steep learning curve and perceived security risks. Now, it can be seamlessly integrated into the traditional investment portfolios that millions of people rely on, managed through their existing brokerages, pension funds, and even insurance products. This growing wave of institutional adoption is not merely inflating Bitcoin's price; it is fundamentally anchoring it more firmly within the global economy, weaving it into the very fabric of the system it was once designed to challenge. The numbers illustrating this shift are staggering. In a remarkably short period, spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed well over $138 billion in assets. This figure is not static; it represents a dynamic and growing pool of capital, reflecting sustained institutional interest. Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs), who manage the wealth of millions of Americans, along with sophisticated hedge funds and forward-thinking pension funds, represent a growing share of this investment. These are not speculative day traders but entities with long-term horizons and rigorous due diligence processes. Their participation signals a deep conviction in Bitcoin's future. This institutional embrace extends far beyond the realm of ETFs. Major corporations have continued their aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin, viewing it as a treasury reserve asset superior to cash. This trend of corporate and institutional adoption is a key driver of Bitcoin's maturation, lending it a newfound sense of legitimacy and stability that was unimaginable just a few years ago. The current market cycle is thus being defined not by the frenetic energy of individual retail investors, but by the methodical and powerful currents of professional capital. Taming the Beast: Volatility in the Institutional Age One of the most significant and welcome consequences of this institutional influx has been the taming of Bitcoin's infamous volatility. For most of its history, Bitcoin's price chart resembled a dramatic mountain range, with breathtaking peaks and terrifying valleys. This volatility was its defining characteristic and its biggest barrier to mainstream acceptance. Institutional capital, however, operates on a different wavelength. With its longer time horizons and more systematic, data-driven approach, it behaves differently from the often emotionally-driven retail market. While individual investors are more prone to panic-selling during sharp price dips or piling in during euphoric rallies, large institutions are more likely to employ disciplined strategies like dollar-cost averaging. They see price corrections not as a reason to panic, but as a buying opportunity. This behavior provides a stabilizing force, creating a floor during downturns and tempering the irrational exuberance of market tops. This shift in market dynamics is evident in the flow of funds into the new financial products. These investment vehicles have frequently seen strong net inflows during price corrections, with major asset managers absorbing billions in capital even as retail sentiment soured. This institutional buying pressure acts as a powerful buffer, moderating the extreme price swings that have historically characterized the Bitcoin market. While Bitcoin's volatility remains higher than that of traditional assets like gold or global equities, its trajectory is one of marked and consistent decline. This decline is a natural consequence of its growing market capitalization. As the total value of the network expands, the relative impact of new capital inflows or outflows is diminished, leading to smoother price action. Interestingly, Bitcoin's volatility has at times converged with, and even fallen below, that of some mega-cap technology stocks, which themselves can exhibit significant price swings. This convergence is making traditional investors take a closer look, as the risk-reward profile of Bitcoin becomes more palatable and understandable. Historically, investors have been well-compensated for taking on Bitcoin's volatility, with its risk-adjusted returns often outperforming major stock indices over multi-year periods. From Digital Gold to a Financial Base Layer: An Evolving Narrative For much of its existence, Bitcoin has been championed as "digital gold." This narrative is powerful and intuitive. Like gold, it has a finite, predictable supply. It is decentralized, meaning no single entity can control it or create more of it at will. And it is censorship-resistant, offering a store of value outside the traditional financial system. This narrative has been a potent driver of adoption, particularly among those seeking a hedge against inflation, currency debasement, and geopolitical uncertainty. However, the increasing stability brought about by institutional investment is fostering a new and complementary narrative: Bitcoin as a potential medium of exchange and, more broadly, as a foundational settlement layer for the global financial system. Lower volatility is a crucial prerequisite for any asset to function effectively as a currency. When prices are relatively stable, merchants and consumers can transact with confidence, knowing the value of their money will not drastically change overnight. The development of Layer 2 solutions, most notably the Lightning Network, is a critical piece of this puzzle. These protocols are built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain and are designed to enable faster, cheaper, and more scalable transactions. They address the primary technical hurdles that have hindered Bitcoin's use for everyday payments, such as coffee or groceries. As this technological infrastructure continues to mature and gain adoption, Bitcoin's utility beyond a simple store of value is poised to expand significantly. Furthermore, Bitcoin's historically low correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds makes it an exceptionally valuable tool for portfolio diversification. In a world where asset classes are becoming increasingly interconnected, Bitcoin offers a unique return stream. Adding even a small allocation of Bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 portfolio can potentially enhance returns over the long term without a commensurate increase in overall risk. This diversification benefit is a key part of the thesis for many institutional investors. Navigating the Market's Pulse: Price, Psychology, and Predictions As Bitcoin navigates this new institutional era, the question on every investor's mind is: where does the price go from here? The recent surge to new all-time highs above the $123,000 mark has been met with a mix of bullish enthusiasm and cautious optimism. After reaching this peak, the market saw a natural retreat, with bulls pausing for a breath and prices consolidating. The price action has been dynamic, with a fresh increase starting above the $120,000 zone before finding temporary resistance and trading near the $118,500 level. This kind of price discovery, including breaks below short-term bullish trend lines, is characteristic of a market absorbing new information and establishing a new support base. Technical analysis suggests that the current rally may have further to run. Having decisively broken through key psychological and technical resistance zones, some analysts see a clear path toward $135,000 or even $140,000 in the medium term. The price trading well above key long-term moving averages confirms that the underlying momentum remains strongly bullish. However, a closer look at market sentiment and on-chain data reveals a more nuanced and perhaps even more bullish picture. Despite the record-breaking prices, the market has yet to enter the state of "extreme greed or euphoria" that has characterized the absolute peaks of previous bull cycles. Key metrics that track the profitability of long-term holders remain below the "euphoria" zone, suggesting that the smart money is not yet rushing to take profits. This could indicate that the current rally, while impressive, is still in its early or middle phases, with more room to grow before reaching a cyclical top. A delay in the full-blown bull market euphoria could ultimately push Bitcoin higher than many expect. Of course, the market is not a one-way street. The spike to $123,000 was followed by an increase in Bitcoin flowing into exchanges, a potential sign of short-term profit-taking and a cooling-off period. Even large, strategic players may take profits during rallies. The news of Bhutan's sovereign wealth fund strategically unloading a portion of its holdings is a prime example. While these sales can introduce short-term selling pressure, they are also a healthy part of a functioning market. The fact that inflows, even at the peak, were just a fraction of those seen in earlier parts of the year suggests that the selling pressure is not yet overwhelming. The Sustainability of the Institutional Era: A Critical Analysis The institutionalization of Bitcoin is undoubtedly a paradigm shift, but its long-term sustainability is not a foregone conclusion. While the current trend is one of increasing adoption and stability, there are several factors that could challenge this new status quo and must be considered by any serious investor. One potential risk is the concentration of Bitcoin in the hands of a few large institutions. While this brings stability in the short term, it also introduces a potential point of centralization in a decentralized system. If a handful of major asset managers were to simultaneously decide to sell their holdings—perhaps due to a change in their own internal risk models or a major macroeconomic shock—it could trigger a significant market downturn. Such a move would likely be exacerbated by retail investors following the lead of these financial giants. Regulatory risk also remains a significant and unpredictable concern. While the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States was a major step forward, the global regulatory landscape is a complex and evolving patchwork. Any future crackdowns, unfavorable tax treatments, or restrictive regulations in major jurisdictions could dampen institutional enthusiasm and hinder further adoption. The path to full regulatory clarity is likely to be long and fraught with challenges. Furthermore, the narrative of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge has yet to be definitively proven across all possible economic conditions. While it has performed well during recent periods of high inflation and monetary expansion, its correlation with risk assets means it can also be sensitive to economic downturns and tightening financial conditions. A prolonged period of global recession or stagflation could test its resilience as a store of value in new and unexpected ways. Conclusion: A Maturing Asset in an Evolving World Bitcoin has come an immeasurably long way from its obscure beginnings as a niche digital currency for a small community of technologists. The influx of institutional capital has ushered in a new era of stability, accessibility, and legitimacy. The launch and wild success of spot Bitcoin ETFs has been the primary catalyst, providing a regulated and familiar on-ramp for a vast pool of professional money that is reshaping the asset's very DNA. This institutional embrace is about far more than just price appreciation; it is fundamentally changing the character of Bitcoin. Its volatility, while still present, is on a clear downward trend, making it a more viable contender as both a global store of value and a neutral settlement network. The long-held dream of Bitcoin as a foundational layer of a new, more transparent financial system is slowly but surely taking shape. However, the road ahead is not without its challenges. The risks of institutional concentration, regulatory uncertainty, and macroeconomic headwinds are real and should not be underestimated. The sustainability of this new era will depend on a delicate interplay of market forces, regulatory developments, and continued technological innovation on its network. What is clear is that Bitcoin has earned its place on the world's financial stage. It is no longer an outsider looking in, but a maturing asset that is being progressively integrated into the global economic fabric. Whether this institutional era will be a lasting one remains the defining question of our time. But one thing is certain: Bitcoin's journey is far from over, and its evolution will continue to be one of the most compelling and consequential stories in the world of finance for years to come.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
[UPDATE] - The Art of Chillin’: Smart Money’s Favorite SeasonHey lads, Congrats on that juicy 120K ! We’ve breached the first trendline and tagged the second trendline (green). We’re now sitting just below it. As mentioned in my previous post, these trendlines are robust and marked a local top back in November 2024. We’ve had a great run so far. BTC finally broke through the first trendline after a few rejections — now let’s see how this plays out. Overall, the market has started to pick up again. But to get what we all want, BTC needs to just chill for a bit — no dumping, no pumping — just chill, so alts can start trending higher. If not, it’s still BTC season. Check my previous post about Altseason for more context. That's it, that's the idea" - Good night !
INDEX:BTCUSD
by hhMaxima38