BITCOIN Why nobody talks about this??That was the last indicator standing and now it is as clear as it can get. With last month's candle close, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has confirmed that it has already started a new Bear Cycle.
The reason is simple and it is one of the most basic trading indicators out there. The 1M MACD was already on a Bearish Cross since October, and November's closing widened the gap to such extent that it is not recoverable anymore.
This has happened every time during a BTC Bear Cycle and in two of the past three cases, it took place while already on the Bear Cycle. History has shown that there is no coming back from this and BTC should start looking for the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1M MA100 (green trend-line) Zone. If all the Bear Cycle indicators we've shown on analyses since September were early signs, the MACD is conclusive and as mentioned, has confirmed it.
But what do you think? Has the MACD Bearish Cross confirmed the new Bear Cycle beyond any doubt? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Btcusdsignals
BTCUSD Stabilizes Near 92,000 – Key Entry Zones & TargetsBitcoin prices kicked off a sharp unilateral rally from around 90,000 yesterday. The upward momentum was extremely strong, as prices not only broke through the key 94,000 level smoothly but also hit a short-term high near 94,550. This move successfully broke the previous consolidation range of 88,000–91,000, setting a new price high in nearly three weeks and reflecting robust short-term bullish momentum.
However, facing heavy pressure from strong resistance near 95,000, prices subsequently entered a phase of sustained pullback. Hourly charts saw a string of consecutive bearish candles, with a marked retracement magnitude that drove prices gradually down to around 92,000. Today, BTCUSD trended with an oscillating pullback after breaking the key level, and it is currently stabilizing around the 92,000 mark without further sharp declines.
Resistance Levels:
The immediate strong resistance remains in the 94,000–94,550 range, which was the short-term high established in the early hours of today. For bulls to reignite an upward move in the near term, a breakout above this range is essential to unlock further upside potential. Further up, the 95,000 round-number level acts as a major psychological resistance, which exerted significant suppression and triggered the pullback during the previous rally.
Support Levels:
92,000 serves as the most immediate support level, which has already been tested during the morning pullback and is currently showing effective support. Below that, the core support band lies in the 91,000–91,500 range—a zone that was the upper edge of the previous consolidation platform and acts as a critical bullish defense line. If this support fails to hold, the next major support zone will be 88,000–90,000, which has withstood multiple market tests in the past and boasts relatively strong support strength.
Trading Strategy:
Buy 92000 - 92500
SL 91000
TP 94000 - 94500 - 95000
Sell 94000 - 94500
SL 95000
TP 92000 - 91000 - 90000
CAN BTC HIT MY TARGET 10,000$ ? BULLISH CHANNEL BTCUSDGreetings 👋
Bullish Setup On Btcusd
A Strong Bullish Channel On BTC On High Time Frame Daily We Are Expecting A Target Of Btc Is 10,000$ Letss Gooo
94,000 / 95,000 Market Rejects Many Time But Now its Want To Break And Keep Moving Up Side To Hit Our Target 🎯
Bitcoin: Consolidation as a Starting PointBitcoin (BTCUSD) is gradually showing signs of revival after a period of consolidation. The upward movement is becoming more pronounced, while pullbacks remain moderate, reflecting buyer interest and the market’s readiness to develop a new wave.
The chart reveals a sequence of advances that form the foundation for trend continuation. The structure indicates energy accumulation and a gradual strengthening of the bullish impulse.
Fundamental factors also support the asset: interest in cryptocurrencies remains, and expectations of further adoption of digital solutions reinforce buyer positions.
As a result, BTCUSD is in the zone of forming a new scenario, where the next breakout of key levels will be the decisive moment for the direction of further movement.
BITCOIN vs S&P500 Is the Bear Cycle correlation a myth?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has entered a new Bear Cycle while the stock markets remain near their All Time Highs (ATH). The general notion is that when BTC starts a Cycle (either Bull or Bear), the stock market, which on this particular analysis is the S&P500 (blue trend-line) follows suit. But how much truth is in it?
Here we see those Bear Cycles since 2011. As you can see in 2011 and 2022 both BTC and the S&P500 dropped around the same time. In 2018 even though both started falling, the S&P500 recovered shortly after, even made new ATH but dropped again remaining volatile. On the other hand in 2014, the S&P500 kept rising, even though BTC was in a Bear Cycle.
As a result, the above notion isn't 100% accurate, not entirely a 'myth' but for sure not a certainty. We even plotted all previous S&P500 sequences during BTC's Bear Cycle, on today's Cycle and as you can see the worst case scenario based on that is a 2022 type correction (grey fractal), which would bring the index back to the April 2025 lows. Bitcoin will most likely have a typical Bear Cycle, especially with the last two (2022 and 2018) being almost identical.
So do you think the Bear Cycle correlation is a myth or not? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Mayer Multiple shows the way to the Bear Cycle bottom.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains on a short-term rebound, as mentioned before, a standard counter-trend/ dead cat bounce during Bear Cycles.
Here you see the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB), an indicator we've used countless times to determine tops, bottoms and general trends of a Cycle. This time we plot this simple yet powerful tool to make an early estimate on the potential bottom of this Bear Cycle.
We will keep this short as there is no reason to overcomplicate things, especially at this stage. BTC is as we said on a small rebound currently after almost testing the 2SD below (blue trend-line) of the MMB. On all previous Bear Cycles show on this chart, every time this happened, the market bounced and consolidated then.
When the 2SD below trend-line broke, the market reached the 3SD below (green trend-line) rather aggressively and quickly. In all instances, that was the Bear Cycle bottom, with the only exception being the 2022 Bear Cycle, which gave one last short-term rebound/ consolidation and bottomed when it broke below the 1W MA300 (red trend-line).
The 1W MA300 has historically had a hidden but key role on BTC Cycles. When tested, always after the initial MMB bottom, it provided a 2nd and final opportunity to enter (buy) the new Bull Cycle at such a low price.
It is possible to see something like that happen again. With its course (1W MA300), assuming the current Bear Cycle also lasts for around 52 weeks (364 days) like the previous two, we estimate it to be a little under $60000 by October 2026. The MMB 3SD below though could be by that time around $40000. It is possible of course that we breach the 1W MA300 (much) earlier thus at a lower price, meaning also potentially hitting the MMB bottom a little higher.
In any case the bottom range seems roughly by $60k - $40k. Since determining the Cycles (hence Tops - exits, Lows - entries) has always been more about timing and less about pricing, this is why we've discussed before that it would be a good idea to start buying (call it DCA if it suits you better) around $60k. As always, however, these are just the facts. The decision is yours.
So at what price do you think this Cycle will bottom? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Can this Bear Cycle be mapped?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on its 3rd straight week of consolidation on its 1W MA100 (green trend-line) after marginally breaking below it (green circle). We've shown in previous analyses how the build up, including the Higher Lows trend-line (1W RSI Lower Highs Bearish Divergence) and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) rebound, of the 2025 Bull Cycle High, mirrors the 2021 peak formation.
Given the strong similarities, there are valid probabilities suggesting that those can expand into the Bear Cycle too. And this is what we attempt to do on today's post, mapping the new Bear Cycle based on the 2022 price action.
As you can see, we have classified the 2022 Bear Cycle into three phases. The key characteristic of those is MA contact. Phase 1 ends when the price hit the 1W MA100, Phase 2 when it hits the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and Phase 3 the 1W MA350 (red trend-line). So far the symmetry is also high on the time range between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100 contacts among the two fractals (245 days vs 224 days).
If this holds for the whole duration of the 2026 Bear Cycle as well, we can expect it to roughly be 52 weeks (364 days) from the Bull Cycle Top to the Bear Cycle bottom, like the 2022 sequence.
The time Fibonacci levels help at maintaining a sense of positioning within the Bear Cycle, with the 0.236 Fib being just before Phase 1 ends and Fib 0.618 when Phase 2 makes contact with the 1W MA200.
Even though a straight up repeat of the -77.36% decline of the 2022 Bear Cycle would put the potential new bottom just below $30k, a Fibonacci extension symmetry suggests that Fib 1.0 was the Low we just made (1W MA100), Fib 1.5 ext around the time the price makes contact with the 1W MA200 and Fib 2.0 when the Cycle bottoms.
This indicates that $63900 is the first point of interest (and potentially start of buying) and $51000 the potential bottom.
Would you agree with this mapping? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD – Key Level Rejection with Potential Liquidity Sweep TowaChart Analysis
1. Price Context
BTCUSD is trading around $90,675.
The chart shows price rejecting the Key Level and failing to hold above the Daily CLS (daily close level).
Recent candles indicate loss of bullish momentum with a series of lower highs forming.
2. Key Zones on Your Chart
🔴 Daily CLS (Resistance)
Marked in red.
Price tried to break and hold above this level but rejected, showing it is acting as strong overhead resistance.
The shaded gray area above looks like the stop-loss zone for shorts, suggesting a bearish setup.
🟢 Key Level
Marked slightly below the Daily CLS.
Price broke above it earlier but is now retesting from the top, failing to reclaim.
This retest-rejection pattern signals a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.
3. Trade Bias Indicated by the Chart
Your marked zone suggests a short position setup:
Entry around current price or just under the Key Level.
Stop-loss in the gray shaded box above the Daily CLS.
Take Profit 1 at 50% CLS TP1, a midpoint liquidity target.
Final TP near the green support at the bottom.
This structure reflects a liquidity-based short setup, expecting:
A sweep of local highs → rejection → push down to fill inefficiencies or revisit liquidity pools below.
4. Market Structure
Price printed a strong move up earlier, leaving inefficiency below.
Now forming lower highs and lower lows on the lower timeframe.
Hold below Key Level suggests continuation downward.
5. Bearish Confirmation Signals
✔ Failure to hold above Daily CLS
✔ Break of Key Level and retest as resistance
✔ Weak bullish follow-through
✔ Liquidity target below at 50% CLS
BITCOIN Two realistic bullish targets before Bear Cycle resumes?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has more likely than not entered a new Bull Cycle, a subject that we've covered extensively over the past 2 months.
As discussed however, there is no reason not to expect technical rallies here and there, practically as we've shown those are quite common in the basic Bear Cycle structure. Historically, moreover, bullish rallies of Bear Cycles have been on average more aggressive than those during Bull Cycles.
So now that the intro is over, let's move to the main course. BTC's sell-off since its October 06 $126400 All Time High (ATH) has been a Bearish Leg similar to the previous major correction of January 20 - April 07. In fact it technically seems that they are both a part of a Channel Up. Having also just completed a 1D MACD Bullish Cross as in March (though that structure made one final Low), it appears as if the first counter-trend rally of this Bull Cycle that we've talked about in the past 10 days, may materialize.
In fact, it is already under way and as we've shown in past analyses, it aims and is restricted by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the natural technical Resistance during Bear Cycles. If it actually repeats the Jan - April 2025 correction, it should now test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the Lower Highs trend-line, which has been the Resistance during these past 2 months.
That strong immediate Resistance Cluster also has the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which is also where the April rebound got rejected and consolidated for a few days. As a result, Target 1 is at $95850.
The second and final (over extended) Target of this is, as mentioned the 1D MA200, outside of the Lower Highs trend-line. A target scenario for this, where the price could make marginal contact with the 1D MA200, is $106450. This is where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is, which was also Target 2 for the April fractal and where the second consolidation took place.
Do you think that is a likely roadmap for the first rally of the Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: Wave rhythm on the verge of impulseBased on the current structure, Bitcoin is completing its corrective phase and is preparing to form a new impulse. The chart shows a transition from sideways movement to a more dynamic wave, which could set the direction for the near term.
Primary scenario: after the correction ends, a downward impulse sequence is expected to develop. Alternative scenario: if the market consolidates above recent highs, it could continue to rise, delaying the start of a new downward wave.
Idea for traders: watch for confirmation of the structure on lower timeframes and enter only after clear reversal signals appear.
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Weekly BTCUSD Trend SummaryThis week, BTCUSD launched a strong rebound following a previous sharp decline, but later pulled back after hitting resistance, presenting an overall oscillatory recovery pattern characterized by "rebound – rally – pullback."
1. Early-Week Oversold Rebound with Intense Long-Short Dynamics (November 24)
At the start of the week, BTCUSD extended its oversold rebound after touching a 7-month low of $80,600 the prior week. Prices briefly broke above $88,000 in the morning, with an intraday peak gain of 3.85%; however, the market pulled back in the afternoon, slipping below $86,000 to turn slightly negative.
2. Mid-Week Oscillatory Uptrend as Bearish Momentum Faded (November 25 – 26)
November 25: Prices traded around $88,000, approaching the key resistance level of $90,000, forming a three-day consecutive rebound on the daily chart.
November 26: A bullish rally emerged in the evening, with prices surging approximately 5,000 points to successfully break through the $90,000 mark. However, the rally lacked subsequent volume support, preventing prices from extending further into higher ranges and laying the groundwork for a subsequent pullback.
3. Late-Week Rally Followed by Pullback, Halted at Key Resistance (November 29 – 30)
In the latter half of the week, the market experienced a turning point. On the morning of November 29 (Friday), prices touched a weekly high of $93,092 but immediately pulled back. Subsequently, prices retreated to around $90,000 to seek support, testing the validity of the $90,000 – $91,000 support range. From a market analysis perspective, the area around $93,000 represents the high of a consolidation range following multiple previous pullbacks, featuring strong resistance.
Overall Outlook & Key Drivers
Overall, BTCUSD staged a significant rebound from recent lows this week, but the lack of sufficient volume during the rebound was a prominent issue. Going forward, focus should be on whether prices can hold above the $90,000 support level—if broken, a further pullback may ensue. Conversely, if BTCUSD can regroup and break through the key level of $93,500, it may attempt to challenge the two-month downtrend line around $96,000.
BITCOIN ! HAPPY THANKSGIVING ! Does the 1D MA200 spoil the mood?First of all allow me to wish everyone Happy Thanksgiving with all the blessings this day may bring to your family and loved ones.
As for Bitcoin (BTCUSD), the anticipated short-term rebound is targeting the first Lower High of the emerging Bear Cycle. What's critical in this? The 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and the reason is simple.
As the previous three Cycles show on this graph, when BTC starts a Bear Cycle and breaks below its 1D MA200, it then turns into the Resistance for the rest of the Cycle. And as you can see, it rejected every single time the Lower Highs. Practically that is the most optimal level for someone to short for as long as the Bear Cycle lasts.
As a result, we expect the current counter-trend rally/ dead-cat bounce (call it as you want), to be limited by the 1D MA200, which is currently at $110k and falling, then get rejected and start the next Bearish Leg of the Channel Down.
So do you think the 1D MA200 will play the role of the long-term Resistance from now on? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: Wave Pendulum on the Verge of ReversalBTCUSD: Wave Pendulum on the Verge of Reversal
BTCUSD Wave Overview (H4/D1)
According to its wave structure, Bitcoin is completing its corrective phase and preparing to form a new impulse. Current dynamics indicate a possible end to the sideways movement and a transition to the final wave of a larger cycle.
Primary scenario: A downward impulse sequence is expected to develop after the correction is complete. Alternative scenario: If the market consolidates above recent highs, it could continue to rise, delaying the start of a new downward wave.
Idea for traders: watch for confirmation of the structure on lower timeframes and enter only after clear reversal signals appear.
BTCUSD – Bullish setup 4HBITSTAMP:BTCUSD is showing early signs of a potential bullish reversal after reclaiming the mid-range of the channel and holding above key EMAs. Price is consolidating just under the dynamic resistance band, and repeated higher lows suggest buyers are gradually regaining control.
🔍 Bullish Confluences:
Reclaim of mid-trend band with candles closing above the lower volatility ribbon.
Higher-low structure forming after the recent sweep of liquidity.
Momentum shift indicated by bullish reaction off the 0.382–0.5 retracement zone.
Support confluence at ~86.8k where previous demand and fib structure overlap.
🎯 Fibonacci Targets:
TP1 – 38.2%: 89,242
TP2 – 61.8%: 90,576
TP3 – 100%: 93,500
If price breaks and holds above the current compression zone, continuation toward the fib cluster at 90–91k becomes likely, with the final upside extension pointing toward 93.5k.
BITCOIN structure follows all previous Bear Cycles. Be prepared.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is experiencing a short-term rebound, whose possibility of taking place we discussed last week. This rebound can technically test and get rejected on a trend-line that all previous Bear Cycles did, the Lower Highs trend-line.
As you can see, that trend-line has been present during all cyclical corrections, essentially being the Bear Cycle's natural Resistance level. Basically the whole structure of every Bear Cycle has been similar, displaying also a Pivot trend-line, which was either a previous High or a Support and once broken, strong sell-off continuation towards the Cycle's bottom. The first two Cycle's (since 2014), bottomed on their 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), while the last one near the 1M MA100 (green trend-line).
Right now the market almost hit that Pivot and a short-term rebound and rejection on the Lower Highs trend-line, may initiate Phase 2 by February 2026.
Notice also the similar 1W RSI Lower Highs structure among the Bear Cycles, being a Bearish Divergence early call for the Bull Cycle Top.
Based on all the above, it shouldn't be surprising if BTC bottoms near or on its 1M MA100 this time also, even though (as explained on previous analyses), it would be a good idea to start buying after roughly $60000 breaks.
So do you think the Bear Cycle structure of the previous years will be repeated? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD today BTCUSD is in a narrow-range consolidation phase. While it benefits from the boost to risky assets amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, persistent pressure from capital outflows in spot markets and ETFs has kept bullish and bearish forces temporarily balanced, with the price oscillating between key support and resistance levels.
On the daily timeframe, the price is trapped in a tight trading range of $86,500 - $88,000, and the Bollinger Bands have contracted to their narrowest level this month. This pattern indicates the market is at a critical juncture for directional selection, with little probability of a sharp one-sided move in the short term.
Support Levels: The primary support zone is $86,000 - $86,500. This range not only served as the stabilization area following the intraday pullback but also acts as a crucial trendline underpinning the long-term structure. Holding this level is expected to sustain the short-term consolidation; if breached, the next core support will be $83,000, with a further breakdown potentially testing $78,500.
Resistance Levels: The key short-term resistance zone is $89,000 - $90,000, where the $90,000 mark forms a strong psychological resistance. Previous attempts to rally above $90,000 have consistently faced selling pressure from capital outflows. A breakout above this zone would target subsequent resistance levels around $90,450 and $92,300.
Buy 86000 - 86200
SL 85800
TP 87500 - 88000 - 88500
Sell 88000 - 88500
SL 89200
TP 87000 - 87500 - 88000
BTCUSD: Test the resistance zone of 89,000 - 90,000BTC is in a phase of sideways consolidation following a rebound. Its price fluctuates within the trading range of 88,000 - 89,000. Although the bulls still possess upward momentum, the obvious resistance lies ahead. Meanwhile, the market sentiment has been gradually recovering from the previous panic, and the overall market is in a pattern where both bulls and bears are conducting cautious tentative moves.
After stabilizing around the 85,000 level earlier this week, the asset has launched a three - consecutive - day rebound, with a relatively solid support level in place.
Focus on the short - term resistance zone of 89,000 - 90,000 ahead. If this zone is broken through, the price may surge towards the range of 92,000 - 94,000.
Buy 85500 - 86000
SL 85000
TP 87000 - 88000
Sell 89000 - 89500
SL 90500
TP 86000 - 85000
BITCOIN The Bear Cycle's High Volatility period has just begun..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last week brutally below its 2W MA20 (red trend-line) and has started this week off with the first signs of a potential rebound. We explained on previous analyses the dynamics of the 1W MA50 bearish closing as well as the rebound potential on the 1W MA100 but today are looking at what this 2W MA20 bearish closing means.
First of all, observe for a moment the remarkable symmetry between the 2W MA20 bearish closings across all Bear Cycles. The date range between the March 31 2014 and March 26 2018 2W MA20 closings was 104 candles (1456 days), March 26 2018 and December 06 2021 was 97 candles (1351 days) and December 06 2021 and today's November 10 2025 was again 103 candles (1435 days).
As you can see on two of those three occasions, BTC initially rebounded above the 2W MA20 again but then got rejected back below and consolidated while turning the 2W MA20 into its main Resistance for the rest of the Bear Cycle. In 2022 it just fell below it and consolidated for 4 months before getting violently rejected to new Lows.
As a result, given also the amazing symmetry of the 2W RSI sequence among those fractals, we still expect the market to potentially deliver the first counter-trend rally (limited) of the Bear Cycle, namely 'Santa's Rally' but then get strongly rejected below the 2W MA20 again.
We call this the start of the 'Bear Cycle's High Volatility Period' and needless to say, it is the phase where due to the aggressive ups and downs in range, most traders/ investors can potentially get trapped. Following Bitcoin's 4-year Cycle Theory (and our 2020 Golden ratio) has historically never let us down and until invalidated will continue to be the way to go for us.
So do you think BTC is entering a brutal High Volatility period? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
P.S. For reference take a look at our legendary 2020 Golden 51%-49% Ratio, viewed 400k times on TradingView and its 2024 update to see how well macro Cycles work at timing (entries and exits on) the market:
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