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SCENARIO STUDY: Bullish or Bearish?Hello fellow traders! Here’s a fresh, USD/JPY plan that blends 4-hour technicals with today’s macro/news flow, plus the most recent trader and bank sentiment. Time to get happy! USD/JPY for Aug 15, 2025, U.S. morning/afternoon 4H structure: After a slide that tested ~146.2–146.4 support, the USD/JPY keeps running into 147.8 and 148.5 as notable 4H hurdles. Macro/news today: U.S. PPI (July) surprised hotter, cooling talk of a 50 bp Fed cut (market leans 25 bp for Sep 17); Japan Q2 GDP beat aided the yen and BoJ-hike chatter. BoJ backdrop: July meeting opinions/outlook show a cautious tightening bias and discussion of resuming hikes; 10-yr JGB around ~1.5%. Positioning & sentiment (latest): CFTC JPY (non-commercial) net longs have fallen from mid-July peaks to ~82k (Aug 8). Retail (spot) sits near 54% long / 46% short. Banks’ bias (based on recent published views): UBS CIO guides for USD/JPY drifting lower through year-end (~140 by Dec 2025) as BoJ tightens gradually, and J.P. Morgan Research also expects weaker USD into late-2025 (USD/JPY ~141 Sep, 140 Dec). 4-hour levels to mark Support: 146.20–146.40, then ~146.00 (deeper swing shelf). Resistance: 147.80, 148.50 (recent 4H/spot pivot and swing high). Scenario A — Bullish (rebound off support / corrective pop) Why it could play out: Hotter U.S. PPI trimmed aggressive-cut bets; if incoming U.S. data/fedspeak doesn’t further dent yields, a corrective USD bounce can lift price from support toward overhead supply! Go Bulls? :D Bullish Plan (4H execution): Entry: 146.40–146.70 on a 4H bullish candle or RSI divergence near S1. (Structure band per the 4H map.) Stop: 145.95 (clean break of the lower shelf). Take Profit 1: 147.80 (first supply). Take Profit 2: 148.50 (recent high / strong supply). Respect Supports: 146.40–146.20, then 146.00. Resistances to fade/scale: 147.80, 148.50. Indicative R:R: from 146.60 risk ~65 pips to stop for ~+120 pips to TP2 (≈1:1.8), +120–190 pips if extension through 148.5. Scenario B — Bearish (trend continuation from resistance) Why it could play out: 4H downswing remains intact below 147.8/148.5; BoJ tone leans cautious-hawkish, Japan data firmed (GDP), while CFTC shows less crowded JPY longs (reduced squeeze risk). UBS/JPM public pieces lean medium-term lower USD/JPY. Bearish Plan (4H execution): Entry: 147.80–148.00 on a 4H rejection wick / failure swing at R1. Stop: 148.60 (invalidate above R2 swing high). TP1: 147.00 (recent intraday base). TP2: 146.20–146.40 (key 4H demand). Resistances to lean on: 147.80, 148.50. Supports to target: 147.00, 146.20–146.40, then ~146.00 if momentum accelerates. Go Bears? :D BUT WAIT..... Which is more probable now? As for the team here at How To (dot) Forex, we are collectively leaning bearish (Scenario B) over the next few sessions. And, here is why.... Structure: Price remains capped beneath 147.8/148.5 on the 4H map. Macro skew: Hot PPI pared back “big cut” bets but markets still favor a 25 bp cut; meanwhile Japan GDP beat + BoJ talk of possible resuming hikes is JPY-supportive. Sentiment: Retail near 50/50 (slight long) and CFTC net JPY longs off the highs → fewer asymmetric squeeze dynamics for upside USD. What are the banks saying? Recent UBS and JPM predictions point to lower USD/JPY into year-end, aligning with fade-rallies bias unless price reclaims R2 decisively. _________________________________________________ OPINION AND COMMENTARY: we prefer fade-rally shorts into 147.8–148.0 unless a 4H close above 148.5 flips bias. If you see a strong 4H basing signal at 146.2–146.4, the bullish corrective setup is valid — just keep targets conservative at 147.8/148.5. If you have questions, or want to see a specific type of analysis not presented here, leave us a comment below. Thank you for reading. We appreciate your support. Happy trading! _________________________________________________ DISCLAIMER: This analysis was conducted by our in-house team of multi-level traders. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur. Always do you own research before trading. If you are new to trading, consider practicing with a free paper trading account. Ask your broker for details.
by financetrance
TRADE PLAN: Bulls vs BearsHello, fellow traders! We've created a 2-scenario trade plan based on the most recent technical, macro, and trader sentiment using 4 hour charts - because we love you! 1. BULLISH SCENARIO — rebound from support Price is oversold on the 4H RSI and nearing key support (146.4–147.0). Fed easing expectations are already priced in, so any upside surprise in U.S. data, or lack of follow-through selling, could trigger a corrective rally. TRADE PLAN: Entry: 146.40–147.00 (look for a 4H bullish candle or RSI divergence confirmation) Stop: Below 146.00 (clear break under the next support cluster) Target 1 (Partial trade plan): 147.80 (local resistance) Target 2 (Full trade plan): 148.50 (Aug 12 high) SUPPORT LEVELS: Support 1: 146.40–147.00 Support 2: 146.00 RESISTANCE LEVELS: Resistance 1: 147.80 Resistance 2: 148.50 RISK/REWARD: ~1:2 from midpoint entry (146.70), risking 70 pips for 140 pips potential. __________________________________________________ 2. BEARISH SCENARIO — continuation lower The pair remains in a short-term 4H downtrend after failing above 148.5. Softer U.S. CPI reinforced Fed cut odds, while Japan’s inflation remains >2% with a mildly hawkish BoJ bias — supportive for yen strength. TRADE PLAN: Entry: 147.80–148.00 (sell into a retest of broken support / 4H resistance) Stop: Above 148.50 (invalidated if breakout above Aug 12 high) Target 1 (Partial TP): 147.00 (intraday swing low area) Target 2 (Full TP): 146.00 (deeper swing support) RESISTANCE LEVELS: Resistance 1: 147.80 Resistance 2: 148.50 SUPPORT LEVELS: Support 1: 147.00 Support 2: 146.00 Support 3: 145.80 RISK/REWARD: ~1:2.5 from midpoint entry (147.90), risking 60 pips for 150 pips potential. _________________________________________ PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT (based on our most current data) Bearish case is slightly more probable near-term because macro backdrop favors JPY (BoJ gradually normalizing, U.S. rate cut expectations rising). Price action still in 4H downswing with momentum (MACD) negative and resistance overhead. CFTC data shows yen longs reduced — less chance of a squeeze higher on short-covering. That said, oversold conditions mean bullish bounces are possible, but likely corrective rather than trend-changing unless U.S. data turns hawkish again. We hope you found our analysis helpful and thank you for reading. Follow us here on TradingView for more up to date analysis. Happy trading! __________________________________________ DISCLAIMER: Our analysis is not 100% absolute. We are not responsible for any losses incurred. Please be sure to do your own research before investing or trading.
by financetrance
"Gold’s Next Big Move? The Hidden Entry Zone Smart Money "Gold’s Next Big Move? The Hidden Entry Zone Smart Money is Watching!" Gold (XAUUSD) is currently consolidating after a series of higher lows, signaling sustained bullish momentum from the strong support region around $3,280–$3,300. Price has respected key structural points, forming a clean market structure with: BOS (Break of Structure) confirming bullish intent after reclaiming prior resistance. Bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap) acting as a liquidity zone for potential re-entries. Multiple Higher Lows, highlighting strong buyer defense levels. The chart indicates a possible short-term retracement into the $3,350–$3,357 entry zone, which aligns with demand structure. From this zone, buyers are expected to push toward the $3,400–$3,415 resistance target. Key technical levels: Entry Zone: $3,350–$3,357 (demand area) Stop Loss: Below $3,340 to protect against deeper pullbacks Take Profit: $3,400 psychological level and $3,414 structural resistance Market Sentiment: The combination of a strong support base, sustained higher lows, and bullish imbalance zones suggests a favorable risk–reward setup for long positions. A clean breakout above $3,415 could trigger a larger bullish leg toward the $3,440 resistance zone. 📈 Bias: Bullish above $3,350 💡 Watch for a reaction at the entry zone before committing to positions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mentor_Michael03
1
AMZN AMZN Bullish Setup --Don’t Miss Out🚀 AMZN Weekly Call Play — Riding the Bullish Flow** Amazon (AMZN) shows strong institutional bullish flow with a **Call/Put ratio of 2.09**, backed by favorable RSI trends and low volatility conditions. While volume is weaker than last week, momentum and options flow point toward upside potential into next week. **🛠 Trade Setup:** * **Instrument:** AMZN * **Direction:** CALL (LONG) * **Strike:** \$230.00 * **Expiry:** 2025-08-15 * **Entry Price:** \$0.63 * **Profit Target:** \$1.26 (100% gain) * **Stop Loss:** \$0.38 * **Size:** 1 contract * **Entry Timing:** Market open * **Confidence:** 65% **📊 Key Factors:** * Call/Put ratio: **2.09** — strong bullish options flow * Daily RSI: 49.0, Weekly RSI: 58.3 — uptrend confirmation * Low VIX (\~15.88) — supportive for directional plays * Potential resistance at \$226–\$230 **⚠ Risks:** * Weak weekly volume (0.8x prior week) may reduce conviction * Broader market weakness could cap gains --- **#AMZN #OptionsTrading #CallOptions #WeeklyOptions #BullishSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #OptionsFlow #LowVIX #SwingTrade #MarketMomentum**
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by quantsignals
XRP Consolidation pattern breakout imminentLooks to me like XRP is breaking out of a rectangle or consolidation pattern as we speak. Pattern formed since NOvember 2024 and since then XRP has been trading in this range. Our current weekly candle is clearly in the process of attempting a breakout above the upper band or resistance trendline of the consolidation pattern. We still have a day for candle close of this week. Look to see if a potential engulfing candle print occurs or not. Also note, this is by no means confirmation of the pattern break. We would need a concise bullish candle pattern for the next week to print for COnfirmation. If we do confirm breakout. XRP will be back in price discovery mode like BTC. And i personally wouldn't sleep on it. Its one of the better performers in crypto and seems like to me with every passing day a major player like BTC. (Opinion based on TA) I would also monitor the MACD indicator. Observe for increasing histogram bars and deep green color as well as bullish cross. On Macro timeframes, being above the 0 line on MACD is always bullish until we cross below.
COINBASE:XRPUSDLong
by SafofAllTrades
Technical Breakdown (Smart Money Concepts-Based)📊 Technical Breakdown (Smart Money Concepts-Based): 🔹 Market Structure: Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) signals show a bullish shift in momentum, especially after the recent CHoCH followed by BOS at the current price zone. Strong bullish confirmation after reclaiming previous liquidity zones, indicating institutional interest. 🔹 Liquidity and Zones: Buy-Side Liquidity above $3,420 is likely the short-term institutional target. Price has clearly reacted from a strong support block near the $3,260–$3,280 area, confirming demand and institutional accumulation. The highlighted Bullish FVG (Fair Value Gap) aligns with a mid-level retracement zone—ideal for potential pullbacks before continuation. 🔹 Key Supply & Demand: Resistance Zone (3,420–3,450): Contains weak highs and unmitigated FVG—prime liquidity zone for a sweep. Strong Demand Zone: Around $3,260 has shown repeated reaction; the base of bullish moves. Imbalance Fill & Rejection Expected in FVG near $3,420. 🔮 Projection & Scenario: Expected pullback toward $3,340–$3,350, followed by bullish continuation. Targeting liquidity sweep at $3,420, aligned with Smart Money accumulation and distribution logic. Monitor for reaction at $3,420 for either a rejection or a clean breakout, confirming further upside. ✅ Conclusion: This setup suggests institutional buy-side pressure with targets on resting liquidity around $3,420. Smart Money is likely driving price toward that level to grab orders before the next big move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mentor_Michael03
USDCAD Daily AnalysisUSDCAD has recently completed a clean 5-wave Elliott Wave decline, reaching a significant low at 1.3540 on June 16, 2025. This low marks the end of the bearish cycle, followed by an accumulation phase. During this phase, price formed a triple bottom pattern, confirming strong demand around the 1.3540–1.3560 zone. The breakout above the neckline confirms this reversal pattern, and price is now retesting the previous resistance zone (1.3750–1.3770), which has turned into support. The pair is also trading above the 21-period EMA, reinforcing the bullish momentum. Elliott Wave & Structure Outlook Elliott Wave count shows a completed 1–5 bearish wave, followed by a corrective bullish structure in progress. Wave A of the corrective move has likely completed, and Wave B retracement is underway. A continuation toward Wave C is expected, targeting the 1.4180–1.4300 resistance area, aligning with prior major supply zones. Trade Plan Buy Entry Zone: 1.3750 – 1.3700 Stop Loss: 1.3560 (below structure support and trendline) Take Profit Targets: 🎯 TP1: 1.4000 🎯 TP2: 1.4180 🎯 TP3: 1.4300 USDCAD has shifted from a prolonged bearish trend into a bullish corrective phase. A successful retest of the breakout zone offers a high-probability long trade setup. Breakout and continuation toward 1.4180–1.4300 aligns with wave theory and technical resistance zones.
Long
by SaklainManzoor
Exide Ltd is currently trading near its 200-day moving averageExide Ltd – Technical Outlook Exide Ltd is currently trading near its 200-day moving average, which is acting as a key resistance level. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger a positional upmove of approximately 15%, making it a strong candidate for a medium-term long trade. Additionally, the stock has been consolidating within a narrow 5% range, indicating a phase of accumulation. A breakout from this sideways range could present a short-term swing trading opportunity. Actionable Insight: Keep Exide Ltd on your watchlist for both positional and swing long trades, contingent on a breakout above key resistance levels.
NSE:EXIDEIND
by manuagarwal21
NZDJPY Long Setup: Institutional Flow Signals Upside to 89.690🗓 Seasonal Outlook - JPY Seasonal Weakness: Historical trends show July and August tend to be bearish months for the Japanese Yen, reinforcing weakness across JPY pairs. - NZD Seasonal Strength: July typically supports bullish momentum for NZD, while August may present challenges. However, strength in NZD versus relative JPY softness suggests continued upside potential into early August. 💼 Institutional Positioning (COT Analysis) - JPY: Commercial traders remain net short, suggesting expectations of further depreciation. - NZD: Also shows commercial net shorts, yet the price structure aligns more with bullish continuation, hinting at speculative flow favoring NZD upside. 🧠 Technical Analysis - Liquidity Dynamics: - Price has cleared multiple buy-side liquidity levels near prior swing highs. - Sell-side zones continue to hold, indicating strong bullish intent and failed bearish follow-through. - Market Structure: - Higher lows and sustained bullish reactions post-liquidity sweeps reinforce an upward trajectory. - Current structure suggests accumulation and breakout patterns toward the proposed target. 🎯 Target Projection: 89.690
Long
by Wiiso
Gaussian and the LMACD deep dive!As you can see LMACD is showing signs of exhaustion. Histogram has been compressing or decreasing in momentum while the price has been climbing up. This divergence wont last for too long and a change in the trend seem very likely. BTC might be entering in the bear market pretty soon and you might start seeing the histogram turning red and increasing in bearish momentum before changing the trend once we approach to the core of the Gaussian or even bellow this time. Breaking bellow the core would mean range bellow 40k as bear market bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by elalemiami
2