BTC 15M Analysis - Key Triggers Ahead | Day 47❄️ Welcome to the cryptos winter , I hope you’ve started your day well.
⏰ We’re analyzing BTC on the 15-Minutes timeframe .
👀 After several days of decline from the zones we previously identified, we are back to analyze Bitcoin for you. On the 15-minute timeframe, Bitcoin is consolidating above the $108,800 support level, with the upper boundary of this consolidation at $109,760. A breakout above this level could signal the beginning of a new structure and trend. A breakdown below support, however, seems less convincing for a short position, as many traders who feel they missed out are now stepping in to buy. Current support zones are acting as both maker and taker buy levels. Bitcoin requires increased volume to confirm either a breakout or breakdown. With the upcoming weekend, however, risks must be carefully managed due to typically lower market activity.
🧮 Looking at the RSI oscillator, it is currently holding above the 50 level but facing resistance around 59. A breakout above 59 could enable Bitcoin to break consolidation resistance and push higher. On the other hand, a key zone lies near the oversold boundary; if Bitcoin enters this area, selling pressure could intensify and trigger a deeper correction.
🕯 Candle size and volume on the 15-minute chart remain within a range. We must wait for significant volume inflow—either upward or downward—to confirm direction. Bitcoin is shaping a new structure for the upcoming week, so patience is required until a breakout with decisive green or red candles occurs.
🧠 Trading outlook: It is preferable to wait for market structure to mature, with multiple tests of both support and resistance. The candlestick type used for entry is crucial, along with momentum confirmation at key RSI levels. A breakout above $109,766 combined with RSI surpassing 59 could provide a long setup. A breakdown below $108,795 combined with RSI falling below 30 and stronger selling pressure could trigger a short setup. Keep in mind that weekend trading usually comes with lower volume, which may result in indecisive structures—unless an unexpected global event sparks volatility.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
Candlestick Analysis
Nifty approaching major support zones very fast. We saw a slide in Nifty this week due to Tariff related concerns and H1B Visa related concerns. The announcements triggered major sell off from FIIs (Who are anyway on a sell path for a long time) and the retail investors. DII and probably HNIs too are buying every sell off which is helping the market from not having a catastrophic fall. Now Nifty is fast approaching the points which can be potential turnaround zones.
Supports For nifty remain at: 24501, 24209 Mother Line Support) falling below Mother line of weekly chart (Very strong support)(50 Weeks EMA) can help the bears to tighten the grip over the market. If we get a closing below 24209 the next support levels will be at 23912, 23116. In very unlikely circumstances Nifty can reach 21741 or 20936 (Father line support).
Resistance For Nifty remain at: 25030, 25516 (Trend line resistance)(Strong resistance), 26277 (Nifty All Time High). If and when we are able to close above 26277. Nifty will gallop quickly towards 27K or even 28K.
It has been a long wait to reach 27K so far after we reached the All time high of 26277 in September 24. 1 year on we are having negative returns on Nifty due to International wars, Indo-Pak war episode followed by Trump Tariff but ones the tide turns a bright upside awaits us. Indian GDP is still expected to grow at 6.5% as per IMF and many other agencies. The night will end and there will be daylight soon. Sometimes it is the darkest before the sun is about to shine. Keep the faith. Sectoral rotation is always advised.
Emphasise on sectors that will benefit from local consumption increase due to Income tax relief, GST relief and Government spending, Chip making, on Infra, Power and defense, Banking, NBFCs and Finances. Sometimes it is just the question of shifting the sail in the direction of the tailwind.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
If it doesn't break 3755, we will continue to be bearishYesterday, gold tested the lowest level of 3720 and then began to rebound. In the evening, gold rebounded again to around 3758, but it did not effectively break through the trend suppression, so gold still fluctuated and fell.
Today, gold has traded in a narrow range during the Asian session, with no clear trading direction in the short term. The overall trend is currently consolidating within a triangular pattern. As time goes by, the short-term trend pressure has come to around 3750. The European session will focus on the pressure of 3750-3755. If it fails to break through effectively, gold will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and you can consider shorting gold. On the contrary, once 3755 is effectively broken through, it means the end of the short-term downward adjustment. Key support levels are at 3730-3720. For intraday trading, adopt a "buy low, sell high" strategy within the 3750-3720 range, aiming for profit targets of $10-$30, until the triangular pattern is broken. At the same time, it should be noted that 3710-3700 below is still the key support.
Short trade
Pair: ETH/BTC
Direction: Sell-side trade
Date: Tuesday, 23rd September 2025
Session: LDN to Tokyo Session PM
Entry: 0.037818
Profit Level (TP): 0.030306 (-19.26%)
Stop Level (SL): 0.038284 (-1.24%)
Risk-Reward (RR): 15.57
Wyckoff Narrative
Distribution Phase: Price exhibited signs of distribution after a prolonged uptrend, consolidating beneath resistance and forming supply at premium levels.
Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD): A liquidity grab above prior highs was observed, trapping late buyers before the market reversed downward.
Change of Character (ChoCH): The break below the consolidation range confirmed a bearish bias, shifting the market structure into markdown.
Phase D–E Progression: Price is transitioning from Phase D into Phase E, characterised by lower highs, lower lows, and confirmed supply dominance.
Target: Drawdown into deeper demand zones, consistent with Wyckoff markdown objectives and liquidity resting beneath prior lows.
GBPCHF: Bullish After the News 🇬🇧🇨🇭
There is a high chance that GBPCHF will continue rising,
following a strong bullish reaction to US news today.
The market completed an accumulation on a key support
and a formation of a bullish imbalance candle indicates
clear strength.
Goal - 1.0703
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Nifty Analysis EOD – September 26, 2025 – Friday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – September 26, 2025 – Friday 🔴
Bears tighten grip with a decisive breakdown
🗞 Nifty Summary
Nifty opened with a Gap Down of 61 points, below the Previous Day Low, and made an initial attempt to recover but stretched only 25 points. From there, a strong selloff dragged it down 109 points from the day high, finding temporary support at the 24,775–24,750 zone.
Multiple attempts to hold this zone failed, and finally around 13:20, the level gave way, triggering a sharp fall of ~125 points to the day’s low at 24,629.50. The index closed weak at 24,673.10, just above the low.
Today’s 239.15-point range was significantly above the Gladiator Avg Range (175.68), highlighting heightened volatility. Importantly, Nifty tested key supports from 5th Sept and 1st Sept closes, while also closing below the 3rd Sept close.
This marks the 7th consecutive red candle session, with none crossing the previous day’s high or close — a clear sign of strong bearish dominance. If Monday breaks 24,430–24,400, the structure shifts from retracement to a new leg of breakdown.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels
🛡 Intraday Walk
Opened Gap Down 61 points below PDL.
Attempted to fill gap, capped at +25 points.
Fell further 109 points from high, tested 24,775–24,750 support zone.
Bears broke this zone at 13:20, sparking a 125-point sharp decline to 24,629.5.
Closed weak at 24,673.10, near the low.
📉 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 24,818.55
High: 24,868.60
Low: 24,629.45
Close: 24,654.70
Change: −236.15 (−0.95%)
🏗️ Structure Breakdown
Strong red candle (Close << Open).
Body: ~163.85 points → large bearish body.
Range: ~239.15 points → wide volatility.
Upper wick: ~50 points → firm rejection at 24,860 zone.
Lower wick: ~25 points → minor buying attempt.
Close near lows → clear bear dominance.
📚 Interpretation
Overnight sentiment carried into the gap down.
Bulls tried a mild recovery but failed at 24,868.
Bears controlled the day with a near Marubozu-like structure.
🕯Candle Type
Bearish Marubozu-like candle → decisive bearish continuation with minimal lower shadow.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 175.68
IB Range: 125.10 → Wide
Market Structure: ImBalanced
Trade Highlights:
09:45 Short Trade – Target Achieved (R:R 1:2.15)
11:50 Long Attempt – SL Hit
13:25 Short Trade – Target Achieved (R:R 1:3.10)
📌 What’s Next? / Bias Direction
Resistance Zones: 24,750–24,775 · 24,868 · 24,890–24,915 · 24,990–25,000 · 25,048
Support Zones: 24,630–24,625 · 24,600–24,572 · 24,500 · 24,430–24,400
Bias stays bearish as long as Nifty trades below 24,860–25,000. A breakdown under 24,430–24,400 can extend the bearish trend toward deeper supports.
📌 Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones:
24750 ~ 24775
24868
24890 ~ 24915
24990 ~ 25000
25048
Support Zones:
24630 ~ 24625
24600 ~ 24572
24500
24430 ~ 24400
💡 Final Thoughts
“Seven red candles in a row — when bears take the fort, the trend is their best ally. Until bulls reclaim higher ground, caution remains the winning trade.”
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
Litecoin: 200 EMA or Bust — Mean-Reversion vs. ETF HypeLitecoin did what Litecoin always does: ripped on big headlines, went sideways, and then gave most of it back. Around the election/ETF chatter we saw that spike, then the whole move basically round-tripped. CRYPTOCAP:LTC BINANCE:LTCUSDT is a mean-reverting machine—great for quick trades, a pain in the ass to hold when the music stops.
Zooming in to now: since the April lows we built up, corrected, built up again into the Aug 13th ~$130 high, and we’re back in correction mode. On the daily, price is sitting on the 200 EMA (right around the psychological $100 area). That’s my line in the sand. Lose the 200 EMA and the $100/$95 shelf, and I think we’re staring at the classic LTC full round-trip into $80 → $70–$65. That would basically unwind the whole April→August leg—again.
On the chart you can also see the macro descending trendline capping every pop (look how those red swing-high dots keep failing under it). Structure still hasn’t reclaimed the December 2024 highs, so bigger picture it’s still a downtrend until proven otherwise. For context, Litecoin has been compressing in a wide $65–$140 range for almost four years. Everyone wants the breakout to $200–$500…but the chart hasn’t confirmed a thing.
Now, we’ve got the Oct 2, 2025 ETF deadline hanging over this. Two ways this can play out:
Bear case (my concern right now): institutions bought April/June, sold the August euphoria to retailers, and are slowly unloading into every bounce while the narrative machine runs hot. That would explain why price can’t hold above the 200 EMA even with “bullish” headlines everywhere. If we lose $100/$95 with acceptance, I’m looking for that mean-reversion magnet at $70–$65 after a stop at $80.
Bull case (needs confirmation): we hold the 200 EMA, ETF news hits positive, and price squeezes back through $120 and on toward $140–$150. That would be the first clean step toward breaking the four-year range, but it still has to beat the trendline overhead. Until then, it’s just another rally into resistance.
Sentiment is noisy: Charlie Lee back on pods, the official accounts pushing hard, maxis loud on X—yet price isn’t following. When expectations are this high and the chart lags, it often means someone smarter is selling into it. Maybe I’m wrong and ETF demand lights the fuse—great, I’ll cheer it on—but next week feels like last resort. If LTC can’t bounce from the 200 EMA into the deadline, and instead rolls under $95, it likely does what it loves most: round-trip the pump.
Bottom line: 200 EMA = line in the sand. Hold it and maybe we squeeze toward $140–$150. Lose it, and the path of least resistance is $80 → $70–$65. The chart, not the headlines, will tell us which one it is.
USDT Dominance: Lower Highs, Maybe One Last Pop to ~5%CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D is still in a high-timeframe downtrend. On the weekly chart, price keeps carving lower highs under that clean descending trendline, and it’s still trading below the 200 EMA. Nothing about the bigger picture says “uptrend” yet.
Short term, it looks like we’ve built a pretty clear support shelf around ~4%. You can see the repeated taps down there, with those swing-low dots lining up along the base. From that floor, a bounce toward the ~5% area makes sense—right into the confluence of the trendline and the EMA cluster overhead.
If we do pop into ~5%, that usually means Bitcoin and alts keep bleeding while dominance squeezes higher. But here’s the key idea I want to get across: this could be the last push before CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D USDT dominance rolls over again. We saw a similar behavior when dominance was compressing between ~7% and ~9.5%—the range tightened, then broke lower. I’m seeing the same kind of compression now between ~4% and ~5%, except this time it’s all happening under the 200 EMA and beneath the trendline. That context keeps me thinking “fade the pop,” not chase it.
So my eyes are on the reaction around ~5%. A rejection there would fit the downtrend narrative and open the door for dominance to turn back down, which typically lines up with a risk-on move in BTC and the broader alt market. On the flip side, if USDT.D starts closing above the 200 EMA and breaks that trendline with acceptance, I’ll respect it and reassess—but until that happens, the downtrend call stands.
Bottom line: HTF downtrend intact, support near 4%, room for a squeeze to ~5%, and if that bounce fails where the line and EMAs meet, I’m expecting dominance to resume lower—which is exactly what the crypto bulls want to see.
Short trade
Trade Overview
Pair: AVAXUSDT Perpetual
Type: Sell-side trade
Date: Tue, 23rd Sept 25
Session: London to NY session overlap
Entry: 33.712
Profit Level (TP): 29.69 (-12.15%)
Stop Level (SL): 34.999 (-3.85%)
Risk-to-Reward (RR): 3.0
Range: 2.796 USDT
Chart Structure
Supply Zone (Sell Zone): Marked in red & blue boxes around 34.5–36.0, showing multiple liquidity sweeps and failed attempts to push higher.
Demand Zones / Supports:
FVG (Fair Value Gaps): Multiple imbalances left during the bearish leg (highlighted in green rectangles).
Key Demand Zone: 29.6–30.2, acting as a magnet for price (also previous resistance turned support).
Narrative (Wyckoff / Smart Money Concepts)
Price swept liquidity at the 36.1 High, rejecting strongly.
Distribution occurred within the supply zone, leaving bearish FVGs overhead.
The sell entry at 33.71 coincides with rejection of a premium level (after a push into supply).
Market structure is now bearish, with BOS (Break of Structure) confirming downside momentum.
Targeting inefficiencies and demand at 29.6–30.2, in line with a higher-timeframe draw on liquidity.
Key Levels
Resistance / Supply: 34.7–36.1
Entry Zone: 33.7
Intermediate FVGs: 32.7 / 32.3 / 31.8
Support / Demand Zone: 29.6–30.2 (Range low).
EURCAD: Strong Bearish PatternIt appears that there is a significant likelihood of a decline in the 📉EURCAD pair in the near future.
The formation of a head and shoulders pattern following a test of a crucial resistance level, along with a subsequent breakout of its neckline, suggests a robust bearish signal.
The target is 1.6226.
EURUSD: Move Up After Liquidity Grab?! 🇪🇺 🇺🇸
Another XXXDollar pair that looks bullish to me is EURUSD.
The price tested a key daily support yesterday and after
a liquidity sweep below that, the market format a bullish imbalance candle,
followed by an intraday CHoCH.
I suppose that the pair may rise more and reach 1.1695 level.
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Pay attention to the triangle pattern to determine the direction#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Currently, the overall gold price trend remains within a triangular consolidation pattern. As time progresses, the short-term resistance level has moved to 3750. As usual, to avoid false breakouts, allow for a buffer of around $5. In the European session, pay attention to the suppression of 3750-3755. If it fails to effectively break through 3755, you can continue to short gold. On the contrary, once it stabilizes above 3755, wait for a pullback and go long. Support levels to watch are 3730-3720. For short-term trading, adopt a buy-low, sell-high strategy within the 3750-3720 range, with profit targets of $10-$30, until the triangle pattern is broken. It is also worth noting that 3710-3700 below is still the key support. If it breaks through the 3720 triangle boundary, you can hold a short position and expect a decline, but do not chase the short position too much.
The #1 Bearish Chart PatternThere is something so powerful;
about technical analysis
that's very hard to put together
but once you do piece them together
you will begin to see the power of it
Tracking the price for
these alt coins
has been the best hing
i have ever witnessed.
Seeing the pennant bearish
price pattern
Has been something
i didn't think i would
see
This stuff is starting to get
more and more clear the more
i study about it.
Studying about the reversal pattern
is like reverse psychology
It gives you
the advantage in the market
Because?
Because everyone wants
a bullish signal when
the market is bullish
every one wants a bearish signal
when the market is bearish.
No one wants a correction.
No one wants the reversal.
Think about it how many
times have you seen a sucker
and you know deep down in your heart
that sucker
wont make it
Now imagine a sucker
that makes it in life.
That what this reversal pattern
is all about my man
this is what separates you
from the crowd
because you have hope that one
day that loser guy
you see will make it
think of the buy signal as
the potential you see in that loser
guy friend of yours
You have seen the potential but
no one around
you has..you have seen
it using the buy signal
now you see a big potential
he finally tells you he has made it
because you saw the potential in him
a long time ago and now
he is thanking you for seeing
this potential in him
and vows to help you
with hand outs if you will
ever need one.
That's what this correction is all about
Notice the angles
there all 90 degrees
this chart pattern is
called the pennant bearish pattern
i got it form Steve Nison's book
on Japanese candlestick patterns.
Thats where i first saw
this pattern.
Patterns are important .
If you want to learn more check
out the resources below.
Rocket boost this content to learn more.
Disclaimer:Trading is risky please learn risk
management and profit
taking strategies.Also
feel free to use a simulation trading account
before you trade with real money.
3717 Won’t Hold—Gold’s Next Breakdown AheadThe highest point of gold during the day was around 3761. It can be clearly seen that as the bullish momentum of gold gradually declines, the high point of the candlestick chart is also gradually moving downward. Judging from the daily candlestick chart, a bearish candlestick chart appeared for the second consecutive day today, and it is very likely to close in a doji pattern, suggesting that gold is likely to continue to fall.
From the perspective of short-term morphological structure, gold has currently perfectly constructed a downward trend channel based on the wave top areas of 3790, 3778 and 3761; and upper shadows appear on many candlestick charts, suggesting that the selling pressure from above is relatively large, and the center of gravity continues to move downward and test the lower support area many times. Based on the current structure, 3717 is likely not the current low, and gold will continue to fall. The upper short-term resistance is in the 3750-3760 area; the lower support is in the 3715-3705 area, followed by the 3695-3690 area.
Therefore, for short-term trading:
1. Prioritize waiting for a gold rebound and then continue shorting gold within the 3750-3760 area; the short-term target is 3725-3715.
2. If gold first retreats to the 3715-3705 area, we can take advantage of the initial pullback and go long gold in that area, with the short-term target being 3730-3740.
$BTC is retesting the S/R level, don't panic! (yet)Previous resistance often times flips and becomes support.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is safe until we hold the gray box.
Candles closing below the gray box will be bearish confirmation. Lots of confluence there as with 200EMA on D1 acting as dynamic support level. BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
HYPE Analysis - September 25, 2025, 06:45 PM EDTHey guys, I am going to chart #HYPEUSDT today...
Price: $35.04
Down 23.08% (7d) after pullback from $45 ATH.
Technical Analysis:
Supports: $33, $30
Resistance: $40, $45
RSI: 42 (daily, sell)
MACD: Bearish, histogram narrowing
EMAs: Below 20-day ($40), above 50-day ($35)
Bollinger: Near lower band ($34)
HYPE/BTC Chart Analysis:
Ratio: 0.0000005
Supports: 0.00000045, 0.0000004
Resistance: 0.00000055, 0.0000006
RSI: 45 (daily, sell)
MACD: Bearish, histogram contracting
Patterns: Retest of channel support (September 18–25)
Bearish Engulfing: September 20
Doji: September 19
On-Chain Analysis:
MVRV: Neutral, slight undervaluation
Exchange Reserves: Stable, moderate selling
Whale Activity: $100M accumulation (weekly)
Coin Days Destroyed: Moderate, profit-taking
Glassnode Funding Rate: Negative on CEXs (SorooshX/OKX perpetual futures -0.005%, favoring shorts; indicates caution)
Fundamental News:
Macro: Fed rate cut signals Q4 2025
Regulatory: CFTC comments on DeFi frameworks
Institutional: $29B daily volume on Hyperliquid (August 2025)
Social Sentiment:
300K+ #HYPE mentions on X
50% bullish (ATH pullback debates, adoption focus)
Trend & Chart Patterns:
Channel Retest: Support at $33 (September 18–25)
Bearish Engulfing: September 20
Doji: September 19
Trend: Bearish short-term, rebound if $33 holds
Long-term: $55–$68 - $88 - $100 (2026)
Buy/Sell Signal: Hold (50% confidence)
Rationale: Bearish RSI/MACD, negative funding rates, and pullback from ATH suggest caution. On-chain accumulation and volume support rebound. Risks: Further dip if $33 breaks.
Hold or buy on dips: $33 or $30
Stop-loss: <$30
Target: $40 short-term, $58 - $68 (Q1 2026)
Disclaimer: Research before investing. #HYPE
Bullish Monthly Candle Expected?4210 Analysis
Closed at 178 (24-06-2025)
Monthly Closing above 173.20 would be
a very +ve Sign.
Crossing & Sustaining 181 on Weekly Basis, may
result in further upside towards 200 - 205.
However, it should not break 136 now; else we
may witness further selling pressure towards 110 - 111.
The bearish trend will continue unless the price rises above3765#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold closed with a negative daily line, reaching a low of around 3717. If today's closing daily line falls below the MA5 moving average and touches the MA10 moving average, we need to be alert that the bears may dominate the market again tomorrow, Friday.
The downward trend is still under pressure during the day, and trading is still mainly short-selling. The immediate resistance level to watch is 3748-3750, which also marks the boundary of the triangle pattern; a touch of this level could signal a short-selling opportunity. Further pay attention to the trend pressure of 3765. As long as this point is not broken, the short trend of gold will not change. Pay attention to the short-term support of 3735-3720 below. You can go long on gold if it is not broken on the first pullback.
CHFJPY: Trend ContinuationI see another trend continuation opportunity over on the CHFJPY pair. One thing to note is that rollover is in a few hours so consider exiting and re-entering this position to avoid getting stopped out.
Daily Timeframe:
Price crossed above HTL and the fakeout was invalidated quickly as price crossed back above HTL
H1 Timeframe:
I see quite a bit of confluence here with the following signals observed in the subsequent bullets
Price is moving out of EMA band again
Price crossed above DTL so that signals a likely end to the intraday counter-trend move
EMA20 remains above EMA60 to show overall uptrend confluence with the daily timeframe
Correction Not Enough,The Real Drop Is Yet to ComeGold began to retreat from 3778 yesterday, breaking through the key support levels of 3755, 3740 and even 3730, and hitting a low of around 3717, a drop of $60. In view of the recent continuous upward trend and the fact that it is near the 3800 mark, this is undoubtedly another heavy blow to the bulls.
From the perspective of morphological structure, gold may form a new downward trend channel with the help of high points near 3790 and 3778. If gold cannot successfully break through the 3755-3765 area during the rebound, it means that the gold downward trend channel may be successfully constructed, which will further stimulate gold to continue to decline.
As for the rising channel, gold is currently facing resistance in the 3760-3770 area. Before breaking through this area, gold bulls may still be weak. Then due to the technical resonance of the two channel resistances, it may be difficult for gold to easily break through the 3760-3770 resistance area at present.
So for short-term trading, we can start shorting gold at 3755-3765. If gold continues to rise within a limited space, we can consider adding positions.The short-term support area below is first focused on the 3740-3730 area, followed by the 3715-3705 area.






















