USD/CHFthe market in HT is creating L.L and L.H so after these bullish candles we need some little retracement to retest that breaking zone and to go up till to our zones 61.8 or 78.6 fibo zones, lets see..
Candlestick Analysis
FRA40 (CAC 40 Index) – 4H Short Setup AnalysisPrice has pushed into a strong supply zone around 8,240–8,280, which has acted as a previous area of rejection. The market is currently showing exhaustion signs in that region, with consecutive wicks rejecting higher prices — suggesting potential bearish momentum buildup.
Market Structure:
The overall structure on the 4H timeframe remains bullish, but price is currently overextended after multiple impulsive legs. The most recent push into this supply zone shows signs of distribution, making it a high-probability area for a potential short-term correction before continuation.
Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: 8,240–8,280 (Supply Zone)
Direction: Short / Sell
Target Zones:
🥇 Take Profit One: 7,950 – minor support zone and previous consolidation area.
🥈 Take Profit Two: 7,850 – aligns with structural support from previous price accumulation.
🥉 Take Profit Three: 7,580 – major demand zone and potential swing low region.
Invalidation (Stop Loss): Above 8,300 – a clean break and close above this level would invalidate the short bias, indicating bullish continuation.
Confluence Factors:
✅ Strong supply zone rejection
✅ Multiple top wicks showing seller pressure
✅ Bearish divergence likely forming (if confirmed on RSI or MACD)
✅ Overextended bullish leg due for a retracement
Trade Bias:
🔻 Bearish (Short-term correction expected)
Risk Management:
Always use proper position sizing and risk management. A tight stop above the supply zone (around 8,300) keeps this setup favorable in terms of risk-to-reward.
💭 My Thoughts on Your Setup:
This idea is well-structured and makes sense technically. You’re trading directly from a premium zone (the upper range of a swing), with clear targets based on structure — that’s a solid approach for 4H swing trading.
Here’s what strengthens your setup:
The supply zone is clean and tested only once — still fresh.
You’ve placed realistic TP levels, gradually scaling out of the move.
The R:R ratio looks favorable if your stop is just above 8,300.
Potential improvement:
Watch how price reacts around 8,200–8,240 — if momentum shifts heavily bullish with strong 4H closes above 8,280, it’s safer to wait for confirmation before entering short. Otherwise, this is a textbook short setup off supply.
Defend 4305-4295, break to see M-shaped neckline#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold rebounded several times during the day to test the resistance level of 4365-4380, but failed to break through effectively, and the gold price once again experienced a correction. Judging from the long-term trend chart, the short-term structure has the rudiments of an M-shaped double top, so be cautious in chasing the rise in intraday trading and beware of a large market correction.
The primary focus below is the support of 4335-4320. Once this position is lost, gold will further test 4307-4290, which is also the point we need to focus on defending. It is both the low point of yesterday's rebound and the 38.2% golden ratio position. If it retreats to this range, you can try to intervene with a light position and go long. If this position is also lost, then gold may accelerate to 4255-4235, or even advance towards the M-shaped neckline position near 4205.
Then our trading goal is very clear. In the European session, we will focus on the support level of 4335-4320. If it breaks, we will focus on the support level of 4307-4290. We will follow up with a light position and go long.
GBP/AUD: Downward movement is Expected!The 📉GBPAUD price formed a head and shoulders pattern, and its neckline was breached yesterday on a 4-hour time frame.
A retest is currently underway.
It seems highly probable that the price will continue to decline, potentially reaching the 2.0500 level in the near future.
Buy DAX 4H on tradeback in bull movementBuying with the trend below previous low of close. Fundameltally Buying bull move on retracement with Risk Reward 1:4.
will move stop to break even if 100 pts of profit is reached.
BTC 1H Analysis | Day 6🥳 Hey everyone! Hope you’re doing great! Welcome to SatoshiFrame channel.
✨ Today we’re diving into the 1-Hour Bitcoin analysis. Stay tuned and follow along!
👀 After faking the 111377$ resistance area, Bitcoin ran its stop-hunts and then moved toward its supports. In the process, after breaking the 109383$ support, it headed toward its current support in the 107508$ price area.
🔍 The exhaustion of buyers’ strength and the unusual participation of TakerSeller at the 111377$ price caused selling pressure on Bitcoin, making sellers the winners from that area. Bitcoin is now near its support, and the next resistances are at 109383$ and 111377$. With a break of these zones, it can move further upward.
🧮 On the RSI oscillator, we see that after losing the 50 zone, it moved strongly toward the oversell area and stayed there for a very short time—so short that we can call it a fakeout—and it formed a low near the 30 area. Now, losing the 30 zone and entering Oversell can be a confirmation for more selling pressure. The RSI resistance zone is at 50, and once the oscillation range passes above this zone, long-side momentum increases.
🕯 We’re going to check volume to understand better and get more data. After approaching its resistance, Bitcoin was accompanied by a decrease in buy volume, and subsequently sellers took control of the market; with increasing sell volume, Bitcoin’s price moved downward.
🧠 For a Bitcoin position we have 2 scenarios on the table that, if they occur, we can evaluate a position.
🟢 Long scenario: Break of the 109383$ resistance area and the oscillation limit crossing above the RSI 50 zone, together with increasing buy volume, with maker buyers also participating in this scenario for a price jump.
🔴 Short scenario: Break of the current support along with more selling pressure on Bitcoin, losing the 30 oscillation zone and RSI entering the oversell area.
❤️ Disclaimer : This analysis is purely based on my personal opinion and I only trade if the stated triggers are activated .
USDJPY – New Japanese PM Confirmation - Volatility AheadUSDJPY initially roared higher when Sanae Takaichi was named as the surprise new leader of the ruling Japanese parliamentary LDP party in early October. A decision which was expected to pave the way for her to become the first female prime minister of Japan, and importantly from a financial markets point of view, see her steer the country down a path of higher spending and tax cuts which may also impact the decision making of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) regarding interest rates.
While, this saw the Japan 225 index race to a new record, it also led to a gap open higher for USDJPY on October 5th at 149.48. This was the start of a move that continued all the way up to an 8-month peak of 153.23 on October 9th, as traders focused on the possibility of the BoJ delaying their next potential interest rate hike and higher spending adding to an already bulging government debt burden.
Then on October 10th, the LDP ruling coalition fell apart, weakening Takaichi’s position and delaying a vote on her being the next PM in the Japanese parliament (Diet) until today, while she and her team negotiated a new coalition. This turned USDJPY lower and coupled with a risk averse backdrop last week led the currency pair to briefly trade down to a low of 149.38 on Friday, before recovering higher again.
Now, weekend news that the Ishin party were to form a new coalition with the LDP was confirmed on Monday with Sanae Takaichi voted in as Japan’s new PM this morning, leading to USDJPY rising back to a high of 151.61 (at time of writing 0715 BST) and potentially paving the way for more currency volatility as the new PM begins to stamp her new authority on government policy, ahead of a crucial Japan inflation (CPI) print on Friday (0030 BST) and the next BoJ rate decision next week (Oct 30th).
Traders have all of this to consider, while on the US dollar side they respond to the potential outcome of US/China trade discussions, a possibly regional US bank crisis and a CPI print on Friday which could clarify whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next week (Oct 29th) as expected.
The run into the end of October could be a volatile one for traders.
Technical Update: Watching Closing Defence of 151.35 Retracement Resistance
USDJPY had previously corrected from its October 9th high at 153.23 to find support at 149.29, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September 17th to October 9th rally. The rebound from this level was being capped around 151.35, a level which marked the 50% retracement of the October decline, although following this morning’s developments, that resistance is under pressure and may even be in danger of giving way.
Future moves could now depend on where USDJPY closes the session tonight and whether it is above the 151.35 retracement level.
In this type of environment where directional changes are increasing in response to scheduled event outcomes and unexpected headlines, being aware of potential support and resistance levels that may be relevant can be useful to support decision making.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Having so far failed to close above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 151.35, this level may still be viewed as the initial resistance focus.
A successful close above 151.35 might pave the way for renewed upside with 152.61, the October 14th high, the next potential resistance level. Beyond that, the focus could then shift to 153.23, which is the October 9th extreme, even 154.80, which marks the February 12th, 2025 failure high.
Potential Support Levels:
While the 151.35 retracement resistance remains intact on a closing basis, USDJPY could remain vulnerable to renewed tests of support at 150.21 support, which is the rising Bollinger mid-average. A closing break below this level could potentially lead toward a more extended phase of price weakness.
A confirmed break below 150.21 in USDJPY might lead to increasing downside pressure, with 149.29, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September to October rally, emerging as the next key support. Should this level also give way, the decline may extend toward 148.47, which is the deeper 62% retracement level.
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Gold Ready to Launch from 4330-The Road to 4400 Begins!After touching around 4381, gold fell again and has now fallen below the 4340 area. Will gold break through multiple integer levels again and retest the support strength around 4180?
In fact, I believe that a slight pullback after gold hit its previous high near 4381 would be more favorable for a push towards 4400. Yesterday's rally from 4220 to 4381 showed no clear signs of a pullback. Therefore, after a single-day gain of $171, and considering the need for a technical pullback, I believe a short-term pullback in gold doesn't mean a return to 4180. Instead, it will stimulate market liquidity after a healthy short-term pullback, helping gold build upward momentum and potentially break through 4400.
Therefore, we shouldn't be afraid of gold's pullbacks, but rather focus on identifying entry points for long positions. From the current perspective, the W-shaped double bottom structural support below still plays a key supporting role, so if gold holds above 4330-4320 during the retracement process, gold still has the potential to set new highs again!
Therefore, for short-term trading, it is obvious that during the gold pullback period, you can appropriately consider going long on gold with the 4330-4320 area as support!
Big cycle M double top, beware of big pullbackGood morning, bros. Last night we proposed a strategy of short selling in batches if gold rises first and touches the upper pressure level of 4365-4380, and achieved good profits. After today's opening, gold rebounded to this range several times, and it can be said that it has basically recovered the losses since last Friday. However, the intraday rebounds have failed to effectively break through this resistance range. If the bulls want to fully counterattack and move towards the 4400 mark, they need to break through the upper resistance. Judging from the long-term trend, the market has a tendency to form an M-shaped double top, so be cautious in chasing the rise in intraday trading and beware of possible large market corrections.
Judging from the short-term trend, the resistance near 4350 is still obvious. If the European session rebounds to this level again without breaking through, the bull market will be difficult to sustain in the short term. We can consider trying a light short position once, but be sure to set a stop loss. At the same time, if the short-term support of 4330-4320 below cannot be held, gold will fall further to test yesterday's rebound low of 4305-4295. Once 4305-4295 is breached, it may trigger a technical sell-off, pushing the gold price to accelerate its correction to 4240 or even the 4220 neckline.
Trade intraday at key levels, but be wary of market whipsaws.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Bitcoin’s Downtrend Is Fading-The Big Reversal Is Coming!After hitting a low near 103500, BTC showed a fluctuating upward trend. It is currently under pressure in the 111500-112500 area in the short term. However, judging from the current technical structure, BTC is still inclined to operate in a bullish structure in the short term.
First, we can see that BTC has successfully constructed a W-shaped double bottom structure by combining the levels near 1 (103500) and 2 (106100); and combined with the horizontal area near 107500 and 103500, it has constructed an inverted head and shoulders structure. The technical structure supports the resonance effect, indicating that BTC still has the potential to continue to rise.
Therefore, it is highly likely that BTC will break through the 111500-112500 area. The support areas that deserve our attention below are first the area around 110000, and secondly the support area around 108000. If BTC holds above the 110000-108000 area during the retracement, then BTC is expected to continue to the 113000-115000 area.
Therefore, for short-term BTC trading, you can consider waiting for BTC to retrace to the 110000-108000 support area and then try to go long on BTC in small batches.
USD/JPY(20251021)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The US government shutdown entered its 20th day on Monday after senators failed to break the impasse for the tenth time last week. The shutdown has also delayed the release of key economic data, leaving investors and Federal Reserve policymakers with a data vacuum ahead of next week's policy meeting. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, delayed by the shutdown, is scheduled for release this Friday. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a 99% probability of a Fed rate cut next week, with another cut expected in December. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold typically performs well in a low-interest rate environment.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Levels:
150.73
Support and Resistance Levels:
151.65
151.30
151.08
150.37
150.15
149.81
Trading Strategy:
On the upside, consider buying on a break above 151.08, with the first target at 151.30.
On the downside, consider selling on a break below 150.73, with the first target at 150.15.
USDJPY: Holds Above HTLOn the daily timeframe, price broke through a previous HTL, which is now acting as support. There's also uptrend confluence signaled by price remaining above the EMAs and EMA20 being above EMA60.
Over on the H1 timeframe, price is also beginning to deviating away from the EMAs, which signals to me that there's momentum picking up.
In addition, price is also breaking above the DTL right now, which indicates that the counter-trend move is likely over.
Technical Outlook for USD Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USDWhile my bias for the US dollar index remains bearish on the higher timeframes, a near-term bullish setup may have emerged. And that could see a pullback on EUR/USD and possible GBP/USD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
FTSE 100 Outlook: Twin Bullish Signals Point to Fresh HighsFresh record highs for the FTSE 100 contract may be on the cards, with consecutive bullish signals pointing to growing upside risks.
The first arrived on Friday with a hammer candle on the daily chart, rebounding strongly after testing the 50-day moving average. That was followed on Monday by another large bullish bar that saw the price break out of the falling wedge pattern it had been trading in for much of the past month. The breakout points to the risk of further upside ahead, putting the record high of 9,579 set on October 8 on the menu for bulls.
Given the twin bullish signals, traders may want to consider initiating longs around these levels or slightly lower, targeting 9,485 or the record highs. Stop placement should reflect the desired risk-reward you’re seeking from the trade.
RSI (14) has broken its downtrend and now sits in marginally bullish territory. MACD also remains in positive territory despite crossing the signal line from above earlier this month and is now starting to flatten out. Combined, the two indicators suggest diminishing bullish momentum may be in the early stages of building again, improving the probability of the breakout playing out in full.
Good luck!
DS
GBP/CAD Looks Set To Mean RevertA two-bar bearish reversal pattern (dark cloud cover) has formed around the monthly D1 pivot, suggesting that momentum could temporarily shift lower. Bears may look to fade retracements within the reversal zone and maintain a short-term bearish bias while prices remain below last week’s high.
The 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and monthly pivot point could serve as downside targets for bears — or potential swing-low zones for bulls to monitor.
A break below 1.8550 would signal a deeper correction or potentially a trend reversal in progress.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The 4400 era is coming, and the 4500 era is just beginning.Judging from the current trend, the middle track of the hourly line and the 4H line are already around 4280. As time goes by, the lower low point is constantly rising. We can appropriately increase the expected retracement target and participate in long trading when it retraces to around 4390-4380. But at the same time, we also need to pay attention to the short-term support formed by 4330-4320. If it falls back to this level in the evening and shows a clear stop in the decline, we can also consider entering the market in advance and going long on gold in this range. The upper pressure continues to focus on 4365-4380. If gold rebounds first, you can also consider shorting gold appropriately.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Continuous cross stars, both bulls and bears have opportunities#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has continued to consolidate at a high level since the rebound, and has closed with dojis continuously, proving that both bulls and bears are trying to compete for market dominance. However, for the current market conditions, it is not advisable to blindly guess the top. Since the market direction is unclear, we should make preparations for both scenarios. The short-term resistance range is 4365-4380, and the first support below is 4335-4320, followed by 4300-4285.
Therefore, the goal of evening trading is very clear. If gold rises first and touches the resistance range, we can try to short gold. If it first retreats to 4335-4320 and there are obvious signs of stopping the decline, we will consider going long on gold and bring SL. Once it falls below 4320, we will wait for it to retreat to 4300-4285 to go long. As time goes by, the short-term lows continue to rise, and there must be support in this range. If it falls below again, it will mean that gold is changing or Trump is causing trouble again.
I will not give a rough range like other traders. I will give the key range and you can operate around the range. If you are confused about this market or need help, please leave a message.
Pay attention to the Payment Innovation ConferenceOn October 21, the Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation conference that could rewrite the industry landscape, inviting top cryptocurrency companies such as Chainlink, Circle, and Coinbase to its Washington headquarters. This conference precisely targets the core players in the entire chain of stablecoins, infrastructure, and trading terminals. However, it is worth noting that if the meeting only discusses the direction without details, the BTC market may pull back in the short term.
Looking at technical indicators, the short-term MACD has broken through the signal line, reflecting a bullish change, but the divergence signal of the RSI may foreshadow a short-term pullback. Based on the above information, BTC is likely to experience a short-term correction followed by an upward trend. Focus on the lower levels of 109,700-109,300 in the short term, with key support at 107,500-106,500. Above this level, focus on the short-term resistance levels of 111,000-112,000. A break above this resistance level could lead to a move towards 114,000-115,000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Short-term volatility, how to plan for the next market trendGold is currently continuing its upward momentum. In the short term, we will first focus on whether gold can break through 4266. The intraday market has rebounded to this point many times and encountered resistance and fell back. If it is difficult to break through in the short term, the gold price will continue to fluctuate widely. On the contrary, if it can effectively break through 4266, continue to pay attention to the upper resistance range of 4280-4300. When the first rebound touches this resistance range, consider shorting gold in batches with light positions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Focus on the ascending triangle, can the bull market return?#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Judging from the hourly chart, gold has the potential to form an ascending triangle in the short term. The European session continues to consolidate and does not provide a good opportunity to enter the market, waiting for the US session to decide the direction. The first resistance above continues to focus on 4275-4285. If the ascending triangle pattern is established, once this resistance range is broken, the rise may continue to the upper resistance near 4315 or even 4330. Therefore, you must be cautious when trading in the US market, and be sure to strictly use SL when shorting when it first touches 4275-4285.
Long trade
📘 Trade Journal Entry
Pair: AAPL (Apple Inc)
Direction: Buyside Trade
Date: Fri 10th Oct 2025
Time: 11:30 AM
Session: London Session AM
Timeframe: 15 minutes
🔹 Trade Details
Entry: $258.49
Profit Level: $269.22 (+4.27%)
Stop Level: $243.69 (–1.96%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.16
🔹 Technical Context
The demand zone on the 15-minute timeframe (near $252–$255) held strongly following an earlier breaker block and order block reaction.
Price retraced to the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci zone before resuming upward momentum.
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) is trending upward, confirming directional bias alignment.
RSI recovered from mid-range, showing bullish divergence and improved momentum.
The 1.618 Fib extension aligns closely with the target zone (~$261–$262), confluencing with prior structural resistance.
🔹 Narrative
After a period of range compression within the 255–258 zone, Apple broke from its re-accumulation structure following a liquidity sweep below the 15-minute demand zone.
Institutional accumulation was evident, as reflected by high-volume candle expansion and a clear reclaim of structure at 257.
🔹 Market Sentiment Context
Broader NASDAQ composite strength aligns with post-earnings optimism and risk-on appetite.
USD weakness and moderating Treasury yields have improved tech-sector conditions.
The upcoming Q4 earnings cycle and expectations of a potential Fed rate cut sustain short-term bullish sentiment across mega-cap equities.
Gold Bulls Roar Again! 4300 Target in Sight!Overall, today, gold is currently fluctuating in the 4270-4220 range, but the movement signs show that gold is more inclined to a bullish trend; after touching the area near 4220 twice during the day, it rebounded quickly, and the area near 4220 became the absolute low point area of the day, and formed a double-needle bottoming pattern in the short term, indicating that gold may continue to maintain an upward trend.
During the operation of gold, the low point is constantly moving up and showing multiple long lower shadows in the candle chart, while the upper pressure is in the horizontal resistance area near 4270-4280, and in the short term, there is a clear embryonic form of an ascending triangle structure. As the center of gravity of gold moves up, the short-term support has moved up to the 4245-4235 area. If gold holds this area during the pullback, the ascending triangle structure will be established in the short term, and gold is expected to test the resistance of 4270-4280 again. Once it breaks through this resistance area strongly during the rebound, gold is expected to continue to 4310-4330 area.
So for short-term trading, we can wait for gold to retrace and then try to go long on gold with the support of 4245-4235 area, first aiming at the short-term target area: 4280-4290
Long trade
15min TF overview
📘 Trade Journal Entry
Pair: MAVUSDT.P (Maverick Protocol Perpetual Mix Contract)
Direction: Buyside Trade
Date: Sat 18th Oct 2025
Time: 10:30 AM
Session: London to New York Session AM
Timeframe: 15 minutes
🔹 Trade Details
Entry: 0.04112
Profit Level: 0.04643 (+12.59%)
Stop Level: 0.03947 (–2.31%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.89
🔹 Technical Context
The trade follows a liquidity sweep below prior range lows (0.039–0.038), followed by a sharp reclaim and consolidation within a tight bullish structure.
Price respected the discount zone (0.618–0.786 Fib retracement) drawn from the prior swing move.
Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) slope turned positive — confirming momentum alignment with buy-side continuation.
Volume confirmation supports re-accumulation at lower bounds after heavy capitulation wick (0.045–0.050 zone).
Overhead inefficiency near 0.046–0.047 marks a fair value gap target area for partials or full exit.
🔹 Narrative
MAVUSDT shows strong signs of accumulation after a capitulation event and recovery through the discount zone. The shift in structure suggests an early phase B–C transition (Wyckoff accumulation) with potential for a spring retracement confirmation.
The entry capitalises on the low-end liquidity grab, targeting the mid-range inefficiency gap above 0.046. With RSI climbing steadily and adaptive MA confirming trend alignment, this setup carries a clean continuation bias into early week sessions.
🔹 Sentiment & Context
Altcoin sector rotation remains buoyant, with smaller-cap DeFi assets showing relative strength as BTC stabilises. MAV’s DEX narrative and liquidity pool integrations underpin fundamental demand as DeFi capital rotations re-ignite. Expect near-term continuation if BTC maintains above 107K–109K (macro pivot zone).
