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Candlestick Analysis

Long trade 🟡 MGC1! — Buy-Side Sentiment Analysis (5-Minute) Observed: Tue 27th Jan 2026 Session: London Session AM Time: 3:55 am Trade Details Entry: 5,077.1 Take Profit: 5,108.1 (0.61%) Stop Loss: 5,068.5 (0.16%) Risk–Reward: 3.6R 🟢 Directional Bias Buy-side continuation: Price action reflects sustained institutional accumulation, with a higher-low structure holding and price compressing beneath upside liquidity. 🧠 Market Sentiment Overview Early-session pullback failed to gain acceptance lower Sellers were absorbed in the inside discount Buyers defended value and reasserted control This is controlled accumulation, not reactive short covering. 🧩 Structural Context Higher-low structure remains intact No bearish BOS or displacement observed Price respects internal range lows before rotating higher Structure supports continuation rather than distribution. 📊 Volume Profile & Value Acceptance above key value areas No sustained trade below POC Value continues to follow price higher This confirms a bullish auction environment. 🟦 PD Arrays / Fair Value Gaps Entry aligned with bullish FVG mitigation Clean reaction from inefficiency confirms demand No unfilled downside imbalance of significance Downside liquidity appears largely neutralised. ⏱️Session Behaviour Asia consolidated and built a structure London AM delivered continuation, not manipulation Typical profile for trend continuation into NY Session timing supports buy-side intent. 🧾 Summary MGC1! shows buy-side sentiment during the London AM session, with price holding above value and respecting bullish FVG support. Compression beneath equal highs suggests continuation toward upside liquidity.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by davidjulien369
Long trade GBPJPY — Buy-Side Sentiment & News Context (15-Minute) Date: Mon 26th Jan 2026 Session: NY Session PM Time: 12:30 pm Bias: Buy-side continuation Trade Details Entry: 210.847 Take Profit: 212.590 (0.82%) Stop Loss: 210.473 (0.17%) Risk–Reward: 4.66R Market Sentiment Overview Sharp sell-off cleared sell-side liquidity below prior equal lows Rejection from the imbalance zone shows aggressive absorption Rapid reclaim of value signals institutional participation, not retail short-covering 🧩 Structural Context Sell-side liquidity sweep completed into the lower range Bullish displacement back into the prior structure Formation of a higher low relative to the sweep 📊 Volume Profile & Value Price re-entered and held above POC / value low Value acceptance confirms a bullish auction Volume no longer supports lower prices ⏱️ Session Behaviour (Why NY PM Matters) London set the range NY AM delivered the liquidity sweep NY PM shows continuation intent, not reversal Textbook London manipulation → NY expansion sequence. 📰 News & Macro Backdrop (Contextual, Not Event-Driven) JPY remains structurally weak due to persistent yield differentials No immediate BoJ tightening catalyst priced into this session GBP sentiment supported by relative yield stability vs JPY Absence of high-impact NY releases → technicals dominate price Macro conditions do not conflict with the buy-side GBPJPY continuation model. 🎯 Trade Logic Sell-side liquidity cleared Price accepted back above the value Buyers defended pullbacks Buyside liquidity is resting higher within the range 🧾 Summary GBPJPY shows buy-side continuation following a sell-side liquidity sweep and strong absorption during NY. Acceptance above value and supportive macro conditions favour continuation toward premium liquidity.
Long
by davidjulien369
USDJPY – Intervention Risks ElevatedLast week G10 currency markets started moving again after a period of low volatility. It was initially led by a resumption of the ‘sell America’ trade that gained traction when President Trump threatened European allies with new tariffs over his pursuit of Greenland and his constant political attacks on the Federal Reserve independence, which weighed on the dollar. For USDJPY, the shift to the downside was given more impetus when the Ministry of Finance (MoF) stepped in to check prices with local dealers, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left interest rates unchanged at their meeting on Friday morning. This move gathered further momentum when the Federal Reserve of New York did the same later Friday afternoon, adding weight to the theory that the US administration is ready to assist in lowering the USDJPY exchange rate. FX markets opened on Monday (Jan 26th) in a similar fashion, with traders reacting to comments from Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi on Sunday, where she stated that the MoF would take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly abnormal movements. Taken together these events saw USDJPY fall over 500 points or around 3.7% from a high of 159.21 on Friday morning to a low of 153.30 yesterday. It could be argued that Japanese and US authorities have stepped in ahead of the important psychological 160.00 level in USDJPY to voice their disapproval at the exchange rate, giving investors a chance to reduce their long exposure, while at the same time providing a warning that they may co-ordinate a future intervention that could result in unwelcome volatility and losses if their message is ignored. While this seems to have been received loud and clear in the short term, whether that continues as traders react to the potential outcome from tomorrow’s Federal Reserve rate meeting and the future policy decisions of the Japanese PM moving toward the elections on February 8th remains to be seen. USDJPY prices have already rebounded slightly, trading back around 154.50 at the time of writing (0630 GMT). Technical Update: Deeper Retracement Risk on Intervention Concerns? Speculation regarding possible intervention triggered increased concerns around overstretched USDJPY levels and prompted position‑squaring into last weekend. Those fears have carried into the new trading week, with prices seeing a sharp continuation lower, and the pair falling 3.7% from Friday’s high to Monday’s low. However, as the daily chart above shows, the latest price activity is currently testing what could be viewed as the first potential support at 154.12, which is the 38.2% retracement of the September to January advance. Closing breaks below 154.12 could raise questions over whether this can mark the start of a deeper downside phase or is just another brief pullback before buyers return. In this situation, being able to identify potential key support and resistance levels to monitor could become especially important for traders in the days ahead. Potential Support Levels: A closing break below the 38.2% retracement at 154.12 could shift the bias toward risks of a deeper decline, opening potential for tests of lower support levels. If those supports fail to hold, the downside moves could extend further over upcoming sessions. As the chart above shows, if support at 154.12 is broken to the downside this week on a closing basis, attention may shift to the lower Fibonacci retracements as the next potential supports. The 50% level at 152.48 is the next area that could steady the current decline, however a close below this level may signal further deterioration and even open the door for a deeper fall toward 150.85, which is the 61.8% retracement support. Potential Resistance Levels: There is no guarantee that the recent price weakness will extend, so monitoring the next resistance levels could also be key to judging whether a more sustained recovery may materialise. The 38.2% retracement of the latest decline sits at 155.64, and if prices rebound this week, this level may become a marker for assessing how far recovery themes could develop. While not an outright positive signal, a closing break above 155.64, could open scope toward 156.37, the 50% retracement, and potentially even 157.08, which is the higher 61.8% level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone