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Carvanashort

CVNA - Stinky Fish Short SetupAs can be seen from past analyses of CVNA, they have rarely played out as expected. And yet – this time too, I will be trading CVNA short. Why again? Because it’s a setup that follows the rules of the Forks. Setups are one part of a system. Just one part – nothing more. A setup has a statistical probability of generating a profit. But this probability only works if we play it as often as possible. It’s like the lottery: if you don’t play, you can’t win. And just when you don’t play, you would have won ;-) OK – in the lottery, the odds are inversely against the player. This setup, however, has a positive expectancy. And that’s why I will also initiate a short this time. Here are the triggers: At (1) we see that the market suffered a sharp sell-off at a confluence point. This didn’t happen for no reason! At least from the perspective of technical analysis, specifically the rules of forks, the market reached an upper extreme – the U-MLH. In addition, we also see one of the fork rule-book patterns occurring: "If the market closes outside the fork, we can expect a test/retest back to the line." Here, the yellow fork is meant: The market opens and closes outside the L-MLH, reverses, and promptly tests the L-MLH before continuing down in the breakout direction. So: a) Yellow fork test/retest after breaking out of the fork b) Reaching the U-MLH and sharp sell-off = Short setup The natural target is the equilibrium – the center-line (PTG1). And another target for me, based on my experience, is the 1/4 line (PTG2) if the market breaks the CL. I will execute my entry on a daily basis, possibly with options or a combination with the underlying. Wishing you all much success!
NYSE:CVNAShort
by HowToChart
2
Not BullishWhen Carvana finishes this completely manipulated bullrun, it will be devastating. Typically extended 5th waves will correct at a minimum back down to wave 2 of said 5th wave. That means $50. The stock was in an expanding formation which it broke out from and then failed back into. Very bearish. That is also the same type of pattern that Bitcoin displayed years ago before a major bear market. I think the top is in here, but we'll see. To get that crash down to $50, something will have to come out in the news most likely about Carvana's stock manipulation and the ghost companies they are using to inflate cash flows. That is purely just a theory though. Perhaps they are squeaky clean and it's totally justified that their stock rose as much as it has, but...I'm not in that camp. Not to mention all the upper management basically sell their stocks every week. Tens of millions of dollars are being siphoned out by the board and upper management almost every single week. The CEO by himself is cleaning house almost every other day lately. www.sec.gov
NYSE:CVNAShort
by MonetaryRebel
1
Carvana - More Fish To Come? You Bet!After the first post about CVNA, I bailed out on a small loss (see linked Chart). But then Immediately loaded Puts and had a good "Steak & Lobster" time §8-) Price behaves like textbook when we consult the Medianlines trading framework and rule set. First price reached the red Centerline, followed by the expected pullback to the white Lower-Medianline-Parallel. If the "Fish" can't manage to jump back into the white Fork, then I expect much more downside to come. If this is the case, we have two good looking PTG's at PTG1 & PTG2. To me, this Scam Company (see my first post) is done. It's just a matter of time. For the longer time frame, I will check out ITM LEAP-Puts and let them profit from the ride to the south. And for short term trades, I just wait for pullbacks as it did now, and take it short to finance some of my LEAPs, Dinner and Weekend Holidays. Isn't it nice, how we can find good even in bad? §8-) May the Fish be with us!
NYSE:CVNAShort
by HowToChart
1
Carvana's Fundamentals And Chart Screeming For A ShortFrom a very well known Short-Seller in the markets I read a concerning letter this morning: "Carvana Trades At An 845% Higher Sales Multiple Than Online Car Peers Like CarMax and AutoNation, And A 754% Premium On A Forward Earnings Basis." ...ummmhh... §8-() The Chart does look very scary too. This exponential move can't sustain very long. As we see, the first bounce already alerts me to prepare for a big short. If this plays out as projected, we see a heavy dump in the coming weeks and months.
NYSE:CVNAShort
by HowToChart
2