Get started

Charting

$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • Small business sentiment + job openings hit Tuesday morning — both matter for labor tightness and inflation interpretation ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC. • Shutdown-delayed JOLTS data finally drops. Market will react to whether openings continue to cool or stay elevated. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 6 00 AM • NFIB Small Business Optimism (Nov): 98.2 10 00 AM • Job Openings, JOLTS (Oct, delayed): 7.2 million ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #JOLTS #NFIB #markets #investing
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
1
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • Major Fed Day — rate decision and Powell’s presser will dictate all intraday volatility. • Employment Cost Index (delayed) gives the market another wage-pressure read before Powell speaks. • Treasury Budget may add context to fiscal trajectory but is secondary today — FOMC dominates everything. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 8 30 AM • Employment Cost Index (Q3, delayed): 0.9 percent 2 00 PM • FOMC Interest-Rate Decision • Monthly Federal Budget (Nov): -137.3B 2 30 PM • Fed Chair Powell Press Conference ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Powell #markets #macro #trading
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 8 to Dec 12, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 8 to Dec 12, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏦 FOMC week: Wednesday’s rate decision and Powell press conference are the dominant catalysts. Markets will focus on wording around inflation progress, growth risks, and timing of future cuts. 🧾 Shutdown-delayed data continues: Job openings, Employment Cost Index, and several September reports are still rolling in late, creating uneven visibility for traders. 📉 Labor and inflation signals midweek: ECI, jobless claims, and trade balance provide additional color on wage pressures and global demand. 🧺 Quiet Monday — then the calendar heats up fast. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) MONDAY, DEC 8 • None scheduled TUESDAY, DEC 9 ⏰ 6 00 AM • NFIB Small Business Optimism (Nov): 98.3 ⏰ 10 00 AM • Job Openings (Oct, delayed): 7.2 million Note: From the shutdown backlog WEDNESDAY, DEC 10 — FOMC DAY ⏰ 8 30 AM • Employment Cost Index, ECI (Q3, delayed): 0.9 percent ⏰ 2 00 PM • FOMC Interest Rate Decision • Monthly United States Federal Budget (Nov): –139.6 billion ⏰ 2 30 PM • Fed Chair Powell Press Conference THURSDAY, DEC 11 ⏰ 8 30 AM • Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 6): 220,000 • United States Trade Deficit (Sept): –61.6 billion FRIDAY, DEC 12 ⏰ 10 00 AM • Wholesale Inventories (Sept): Not released for this cycle Note: September report was canceled; August was the last available ⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational and informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #FOMC #Powell #inflation #labor #economy #markets #investing
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPX | COVERAGE INITIATED — Personal Position Update [W49]SPX — WEEK 49 COVERAGE INITIATED | 12/05/2025 Ticker: SP:SPX Timeframe: W This is a reactive structural classification of SPX based on the weekly chart as of this timestamp. Price conditions are evaluated as they stand — nothing here is predictive or forward-assumptive. ⸻ Author’s Note — Personal Position Update I initiated my own position on [ SP:SPX ] during Week , entering at $ . This decision follows my personal criteria: I only participate when my system identifies a verified structural trend shift supported by both a confirmed weekly flag and a qualifying candle state. This note reflects my activity only and is not a suggestion for anyone else. As of this update, my position is currently up ~ from my entry. My structural exit level is $ on a weekly-close basis. This level will continue to adjust upward automatically as the structure strengthens. If price closes below that threshold, my system classifies the trend as structurally compromised, and that is where I personally exit. This update exists solely to document my own participation and the structural levels I monitor. It is not predictive and does not imply any future outcome. ⸻ Structural Integrity 1) Current Trend Condition [ Numbers to Watch ] Current Price @ $ • Trend Duration @ +2 Weeks ( Bullish ) • Trend Reversal Level ( Bearish ) @ $ • Trend Reversal Level ( Bearish Confirmation ) @ $ • Pullback Retracement @ $ • Correction Support @ $ ⸻ 2) Structure Health • Retracement Phase: Uptrend (operating above 78.6%) • Position Status: Healthy (price above both structural layers) ⸻ 3) Temperature : Warming Phase ⸻ 4) Momentum : Bullish ⸻ Structural Integrity UPWARD STRUCTURAL ALIGNMENT This mark reflects a point where market behavior supported the continuation of the existing upward direction. It does not imply forecasting or targets — it simply notes where strength became observable within the current trend. Its meaning holds only while price continues to respect the broader structural levels that define the trend. ⸻ Methodology Overview This classification framework evaluates directional conditions using internal trend-interpretation logic that references price behavior relative to its structural layers. These relationships are used to identify when price movement aligns with the framework’s criteria for directional phases, transition points, or regime shifts. Visual elements or structural labels reflect these internal interpretations, rather than explicit trading signals or preset indicator crossovers. This framework is observational only and does not imply future outcomes.
SP:SPXLong
by GURULifeline
SPOT - A Ticking Time Bomb!SPOT Earnings Yield of 1.3% according to current data — meaning you’re getting about 1.3 cents of profit per dollar invested. LOL! Better you give me your hard-earned money and I'll give you 2% instead of 1.3%. I like to splurge! :) The Structural Constraint Spotify cannot scale margins the way Netflix did because: They don’t own the content They don’t control input costs They have to pay out ~70% of every dollar to rights holders Their pricing power is weak and regulated by deals with labels The labels decide what happens to Spotify’s margins, not Spotify This is the definition of a business with a hard economic ceiling. No amount of subscribers fixes the cost structure. Spotify’s long-run net margin: 1–2% (When they “beat,” the gains evaporate the next quarter.) If Spotify hit 5% margins — a level they’ve never sustained. And on a positive note — THANK YOU for helping me hit 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep going. If you find value in the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Leave a comment Let’s push to 6,000 and keep building a community rooted in facts, not fairy tales.
NYSE:SPOTShort
by RealMacro
1
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Dec 5, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Dec 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🧨 Big inflation catch-up day: A cluster of delayed PCE reports hits at once — this is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and will dictate rate-path expectations into year-end. 🧭 Consumer sentiment & credit: Adds read-through on household stress, spending durability, and recession probability. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 8 30 AM — Heavy Macro Drop • Personal Income (Sept, delayed): 0.3% vs 0.4% • Personal Spending (Sept, delayed): 0.4% vs 0.3% • PCE Index (Sept, delayed): 0.3% vs 0.3% • PCE YoY: 2.9% vs 2.9% • Core PCE Index (Sept, delayed): 0.2% vs 0.2% • Core PCE YoY: 2.8% vs 2.7% ⏰ 10 00 AM • Consumer Sentiment (prelim, Dec): 52.0 vs 51.0 ⏰ 3 00 PM • Consumer Credit (Oct): $10.5B vs $13.1B ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #macro #fed #consumer #markets #stocks #trading #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Dec 4, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🧱 Labor pulse before the weekend: Weekly claims remain a key gauge of cooling versus resilience in the labor market — especially with jobs data still disrupted from prior shutdown delays. 🎤 Bowman speaks at noon: Moderate-impact event, but tone on regulation, credit conditions, and inflation watch may move yields slightly in a light-data session. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 8 30 AM • Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 29): 220,000 vs 216,000 ⏰ 12 00 PM • Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman — Remarks ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #macro #labor #joblessclaims #fed #markets #stocks #trading #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 3, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 💼 Labor + services-heavy morning: ADP, import prices, services PMIs, and ISM all land before 10 AM — a full macro pulse on jobs, inflation pressure, and service-sector strength. 🧾 Shutdown-delayed September reports continue: Import Prices, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization still come from the backlog but remain relevant for inflation and growth trend review. 📈 ISM Services is the star: With manufacturing soft, services remain the market’s key gauge of economic momentum into year end. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 8 15 AM • ADP Employment (Nov): 40,000 vs 42,000 ⏰ 8 30 AM • Import Price Index (Sept, delayed): 0.1 percent vs 0.3 • Import Prices ex Fuel (Sept, delayed): 0.4 percent ⏰ 9 15 AM • Industrial Production (Sept, delayed): 0.1 percent • Capacity Utilization (Sept): 77.3 percent ⏰ 9 45 AM • S and P Final United States Services PMI (Nov): 55.0 ⏰ 10 00 AM • ISM Services (Nov): 52.5 percent ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #ADP #services #ISM #inflation #imports #markets #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🎤 Bowman testimony hits at 10 AM — this is the only fixed macro event of the day, and her tone on regulation and economic conditions can nudge yields. 🚗 Auto Sales (Nov) TBA — release time unclear, but this report can move cyclicals if it prints far from expectations. Previous level was 16.4 million annualized. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) 10 00 AM • Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman — Testimony TBA • Auto Sales (Nov) Previous: 16.4 million Note: Release time is not announced ⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational use only, not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #stocks #macro #fed #autosales #markets #trading #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 1 to Dec 5, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Dec 1 to Dec 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏭 PMI and ISM reset the growth story: Monday and Wednesday bring manufacturing and services surveys that will steer the “soft landing versus slowdown” debate into year end. 🎤 Powell in prime time: Monday night remarks from the Fed Chair are the key policy event of the week and can move yields and risk right into the Asia open. 🧾 Backlog inflation and income data: Friday’s delayed September PCE, income, and spending finally land, giving a cleaner read on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. 📉 Jobs and ADP midweek: ADP and weekly claims keep traders focused on labor cooling versus resilience ahead of the next full employment report. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) MONDAY, DEC 1 ⏰ 9 45 AM • S and P Final United States Manufacturing PMI (Nov) — prior 51.9 ⏰ 10 00 AM • ISM Manufacturing (Nov) ⏰ 8 00 PM • Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks TUESDAY, DEC 2 ⏰ 10 00 AM • Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies ⏰ TBA • Auto Sales (Nov) — around 16.4 million expected WEDNESDAY, DEC 3 ⏰ 8 15 AM • ADP Employment (Nov) — expected around 42,000 ⏰ 8 30 AM • Import Price Index (Sept, delayed) • Import Price Index excluding fuel (Sept, delayed) ⏰ 9 45 AM • S and P Final United States Services PMI (Nov) ⏰ 10 00 AM • ISM Services (Nov) THURSDAY, DEC 4 ⏰ 8 30 AM • Initial Jobless Claims (week of Nov 29) • United States Trade Deficit (Oct) ⏰ 12 00 PM • Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks FRIDAY, DEC 5 — PCE Backlog Day ⏰ 8 30 AM • Personal Income (Sept, delayed report) • Personal Spending (Sept, delayed report) • PCE Price Index (Sept, delayed report) • Core PCE Price Index (Sept, delayed report) • PCE and Core PCE year over year (Fed’s preferred inflation gauges) ⏰ 10 00 AM • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, preliminary (Dec) — around 51.0 ⏰ 3 00 PM • Consumer Credit (Oct) — prior roughly 13.1 billion ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #stocks #macro #Powell #PCE #ISM #ADP #inflation #economy #markets #investing
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Just In: Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) Set for 160% BreakoutThe price of Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ; NASDAQ:CHA ) is gearing for a 160% breakout amidst breaking out of a falling wedge. The stock has been in an enclosed falling wedge since Early March this year. However, growing interest reveals the stock is set to go parambolic with eyes on the $30 resistant point. Currently up 1.20% in Friday's premarket session with the RSI at 54, NASDAQ:CHA stock is poised for the 160% surge. Financial Performance In 2024, Chagee Holdings's revenue was 12.41 billion, an increase of 167.35% compared to the previous year's 4.64 billion. Earnings were 1.44 billion, an increase of 172.35%. Analyst Summary According to 5 analysts, the average rating for CHA stock is "Buy." The 12-month stock price target is $31.18, which is an increase of 120.67% from the latest price. About CHA Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand name in the People’s Republic of China and internationally. The company engages in sale of tea drinks and related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment and other supplies. It operates through online platforms. The company was founded in 2017 and is based in Shanghai, the People’s Republic of China.
NASDAQ:CHALong
by DEXWireNews
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🧱 Growth check pre holiday: Weekly jobless claims and durable goods hit together at 8 30 AM, giving a clean read on labor and business demand. 📦 Capex and manufacturing pulse: The delayed September durable goods numbers update the heavy-industry side of the economy before year end. 📘 Fed Beige Book: Afternoon release colors in how businesses are actually feeling about demand, pricing, and hiring across districts. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8 30 AM • Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22): 225,000 vs 220,000 • Durable Goods Orders (Sept, delayed): 0.5 percent vs 2.9 • Durable Goods ex Transportation (Sept, delayed): 0.4 percent ⏰ 2 00 PM • Federal Reserve Beige Book — anecdotal read on growth, wages, and pricing ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #jobs #durablegoods #BeigeBook #stocks #bonds #markets #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🧾 Backlog data hits at once: Delayed Sept Retail Sales + PPI finally print, giving a clearer view of demand and pipeline inflation. 📉 Cooler demand, firm prices: Sales miss old expectations while PPI stays positive, not the clean disinflation combo bulls want. 🏠 Housing and confidence: Case Shiller, Confidence, and Pending Home Sales update how higher rates are hitting owners and buyers into holiday season. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8 30 AM block — Sept backlog • Retail Sales (delayed): 0.3 percent vs 0.6 old forecast • Retail Sales ex Auto: 0.3 percent vs 0.7 • PPI (delayed): 0.3 percent | YoY 2.6 percent • Core PPI: 0.3 percent | YoY 2.8 percent ⏰ 9 00 AM • Case Shiller 20 City Home Prices (Sept): 1.3 percent vs 1.6 ⏰ 10 00 AM • Business Inventories (Aug, delayed): 0.0 percent vs 0.2 • Consumer Confidence (Nov): 93.2 vs 94.6 • Pending Home Sales (Oct): 0.0 percent ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #stocks #macro #PPI #retailsales #consumer #housing #inflation #markets #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY and $SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 24 to Nov 28, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY and SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 24 to Nov 28, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Shutdown backlog week: Most major September reports finally drop on Tuesday and Wednesday — Retail Sales, PPI, Durable Goods — all of which normally move markets but are arriving late due to the October shutdown. 🏠 Housing and consumer read-through: Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence, and Pending Home Sales give traders a real-time read on the health of housing and spending as the holiday season begins. 📉 Liquidity thinning: Thanksgiving week historically brings lighter volume and sharper moves when data surprises. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) Below are only the trader-relevant items, with delayed reports clearly marked. TUESDAY, NOV 25 — The Big Data Dump ⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 0.6 forecast) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales ex-Autos (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 0.7 forecast) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index PPI (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.3 percent Year over year: 2.6 percent ⏰ 8:30 AM — Core PPI (Delayed Sept) Prior: 0.3 percent Current: Not available due to shutdown ⏰ 8:30 AM — Core PPI Year over Year Actual: 2.8 percent ⏰ 9:00 AM — Case Shiller Home Price Index, 20-City (Sept) Actual: Not available Forecast: 1.6 percent ⏰ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Delayed Aug) Actual: 0.1 percent ⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Nov) Actual: 93.4 (vs 94.6 forecast) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Oct) Actual: 0.0 percent WEDNESDAY, NOV 26 ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22) Actual: 225,000 (vs 220,000 forecast) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.3 percent (vs 2.9 percent prior) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods ex-Transportation (Delayed Sept) Actual: 0.4 percent THURSDAY, NOV 27 🦃 Thanksgiving — No economic releases FRIDAY, NOV 28 ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Nov) Forecast: 43.8 ⚠️ Note: Many September reports are still delayed due to the federal government shutdown from Oct 1 to Nov 12. All delayed items are explicitly labeled above. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only. Not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #macro #trading #stocks #inflation #consumer #PPI #retailsales #housing #markets
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 21, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📊 Flash PMIs take center stage: These are the first real-time reads on November growth — high-impact for equities, yields, and recession-tracking. 🧭 Consumer sentiment + inventories wrap the week: UMich final reading offers clues on spending resilience; wholesale inventories remain a shutdown-delayed report. ⚠️ Shutdown backlog: Wholesale inventories (Aug) is still delayed due to the Oct 1–Nov 12 shutdown. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Flash PMIs (Nov) • Services: 54.5 (vs 54.8 forecast) • Manufacturing: 52.0 (vs 52.5 forecast) One of the most important releases of the day — markets move off this. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Sentiment (Final, Nov) Actual: 51.0 Low sentiment continues to weigh on forward demand expectations. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug, delayed report) Actual: 0.1 percent ⚠️ Delayed due to the federal shutdown — low relevance, but still part of the data backlog. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #PMI #consumer #markets #stocks #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Dual labor signals hit premarket: The delayed September employment report and weekly jobless claims land at the same time — a rare setup that can jolt both yields and equities. 🛒 Housing + recession gauges follow shortly after, giving traders a full macro pulse before midday. ⚠️ Reminder: Some October data (leading indicators) may still be affected by shutdown delays. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — U.S. Employment Report (Delayed Sept) • Payrolls: 50,000 • Unemployment Rate: 4.3% • Wages: 0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y Treat this like a fresh NFP — major market mover. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15) Actual: 227,000 Weekly update on cooling/tightening labor conditions. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov) Actual: 1.5 vs –12.8 prior Important for gauging demand softness vs stabilization. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Oct) Actual: 4.10M vs 4.06M forecast Clean read on rate-sensitive housing momentum. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Leading Economic Indicators (Oct) Actual: –0.3% ⚠️ May still be subject to shutdown-related reporting delays. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #jobs #housing #labor #markets #PMI #investing #stocks
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Manufacturing + housing cluster hits premarket: Philly Fed, Starts, and Permits all drop at 8:30 — a rare combo that can shift the recession narrative quickly. ⚠️ Shutdown-lag still in play: Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the delayed Trade Balance report may not publish due to the Oct 1–Nov 14 shutdown backlog. 📘 FOMC Minutes in the afternoon: Markets focus on cut-timing language, inflation persistence, and financial-conditions assessment. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov) Forecast: 3.0 vs –12.8 prior One of the top-tier regional recession indicators. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts (Oct) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Building Permits (Oct) ⚠️ Both reports may be delayed due to ongoing data backlog from the federal shutdown. If released, they move rates, homebuilders, and cyclicals. ⏰ 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug, delayed report) Forecast: –$61.0B vs –$78.3B prior Lower impact due to being a stale report, but can still nudge GDP tracking. ⏰ 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (Oct Meeting) The day’s biggest confirmed market catalyst. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #recession #housing #rates #manufacturing #FOMC #markets #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines ⚠️ Shutdown backlog still unresolved: Several October reports scheduled for Tuesday (Import Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization) remain at high risk of delay, which keeps macro visibility muddy and makes equities more sensitive to yields + positioning. 🏠 Housing sentiment check: Homebuilder confidence is one of the few confirmed releases, giving the market a clean read on construction demand and rates pressure. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Oct) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index ex-Fuel (Oct) ⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production (Oct) ⏰ 9:15 AM — Capacity Utilization (Oct) ⚠️ All four reports remain at risk of non-release due to the Oct 1–Nov 14 shutdown impact. If they publish, they directly affect inflation expectations and recession probabilities. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug, delayed report) Older data, but could matter slightly since it’s been stuck in the backlog. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Homebuilder Confidence (Nov) Forecast: 37 (prior 37) The only fresh and confirmed economic print of the morning. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #inflation #housing #manufacturing #markets #rates #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 17 to Nov 21, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 17 to Nov 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Shutdown fallout still clearing: Several reports from October remain at risk of delay (especially import prices, industrial production, housing data). Markets may react more to yields and tech leadership while waiting for the data stream to fully normalize. 🏠 Housing + manufacturing week: The middle of the week clusters the biggest releases — Philly Fed, Housing Starts, Permits, and FOMC Minutes. This is where volatility can show up. 📉 Labor digest Thursday: Claims + the delayed September employment report hit at the same time — rare setup that can move both bonds and equities. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Below are only the events that actually matter for traders (all shutdown-risk items marked ⚠️) MONDAY, NOV 17 ⏰ 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing (Nov)  Forecast: 5.5 vs 10.7 prior  Regional but can influence sentiment on macro slowdown. TUESDAY, NOV 18 ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Oct) ⏰ ⚠️ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Oct)  Both may still be delayed due to the prior shutdown.  These matter for inflation inputs and growth pulse if they print. WEDNESDAY, NOV 19 — Biggest Day of the Week ⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov)  Forecast: 3.0 vs –12.8 prior  High-impact regional gauge — often leads ISM. ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Oct)  Shutdown-risk remains; key for housing cycle momentum. ⏰ 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (Oct Meeting)  Top-tier macro catalyst of the week.  Markets focus on: cuts timeline, inflation language, financial conditions. THURSDAY, NOV 20 — Labor Cluster ⏰ 8:30 AM — Delayed Employment Report (Sept)  • Nonfarm Payrolls: 22,000  • Unemployment Rate: 4.3%  • Wages: 0.3% m/m  Extremely important — markets treat this like a fresh NFP. ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15)  Forecast: 225,000  Matters even more because CPI/PPI were delayed. ⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Oct)  Forecast: 4.08M  Secondary but helps gauge consumer + housing softness. FRIDAY, NOV 21 ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Flash PMIs (Nov)  • Services: 54.8  • Manufacturing: 52.5  Fastest high-freq read of growth — always matters. ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Nov)  Forecast: 51.0  Low sentiment keeps pressure on consumer outlook. ⚠️ Reports that may be delayed: • Import Prices • Industrial Production & CapU • Housing Starts / Permits • A small chance of lingering delays on later October data ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #inflation #jobs #housing #markets #PMI #FOMC #investing
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 14, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 14, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚨 Shutdown disruption continues: The entire Retail Sales + PPI complex — normally one of the biggest monthly movers — is still at risk of nondelivery. Markets will trade on expectations, not prints. 📉 Volatility watch: With CPI, Claims, and Retail Sales all in backlog, positioning remains thin and reactive to yields + global risk sentiment. 💵 Bond market tone dominates: Without fresh inflation data, Treasury moves may guide SPX levels more than usual. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) All major data below is shutdown-risk flagged. ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Oct)  Forecast: -0.2%  Shutdown delay risk — high ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales ex-Auto (Oct)  Forecast: +0.2%  Shutdown delay risk — high ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Oct)  Headline: +0.1%  Core: +0.3%  Shutdown delay risk — high ⏰ ⚠️ 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (Sept)  Forecast: +0.2%  Shutdown delay risk — medium 👉 All above data normally moves markets, especially Retail Sales + PPI. Today, traders only get the reaction if the numbers publish. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #inflation #PPI #RetailSales #macro #economy #Fed #markets #risk #shutdown
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
TSLA In Trouble! WARNING!🚫 Why No One Should Be Holding TSLA Right Now Charting: Triple Top! Rising wedge fully formed 3-wave rising wedge structure that has hooked and broken! mini double top. I’ve been saying this for a while — no one should be long TSLA. The stock has done nothing since 2021, yet the hype machine for the boy band keeps spinning. Ask yourself honestly: Where does Tesla actually lead anymore? Not in EVs Not in autonomy Not in robots Not in AI Not in tech innovation It’s become a stock story with no story left. And when leadership is built on hype, not execution, it always ends the same way. Never invest in toxic leadership or cult narratives. TSLA is a real company, sure — but in fundamental terms, it’s an $8 stock wearing a $450 costume. If you agree and sell, and it's wrong. Guess what? You will have a bunch of cash waiting to buy it. If you disagree, you won't have a bunch of cash waiting to buy lower BC YOU NEVER SOLD! You can't "BUY THE DIP" Ubless you first SELL THE RIP! It's 2nd-grade math that the boy band who will come in here hating on my call again cannot do. They will give me colorful charts, tell me about cup and handles while riding it all the way down! They are always buying but NEVER selling. That's the trick with paper money, you can never run out of it. hahah! Click boost, follow, comment nicely for more authentic, no BS, raw analysis. Let's get to 6,000 followers. ))
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by RealMacro
12
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 13, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚨 Inflation spotlight (⚠️ delay risk): October CPI and Jobless Claims — both subject to government shutdown delay — were originally scheduled for release this morning. Markets may stay cautious or reactive to leaks and private inflation trackers in the absence of official prints. 💬 Fed rotation continues: A packed Fed lineup — Mary Daly, John Williams, Kashkari, Hammack, and Bostic — will steer tone across the day, shaping expectations for December guidance. 📉 Budget check: A fresh federal deficit report (-$215B) adds to the fiscal backdrop narrative, though reaction may stay muted if major data doesn’t hit. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 8:00 AM — Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) speech ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay) ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Core CPI (Oct) | +0.3% MoM | +3.1% YoY (subject to delay) ⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 8) | 225,000 forecast (subject to delay) ⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) welcoming remarks ⏰ 10:25 AM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) opening remarks ⏰ 12:15 PM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) speech ⏰ 12:20 PM — Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed) speech ⏰ 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Oct) | -$215B deficit vs -$257.5B prior ⏰ 3:20 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⚠️ Note: CPI and Jobless Claims carry the highest market impact this week — but both remain at risk of delay due to the ongoing federal data blackout. Fed speakers and any CPI proxies (like Cleveland Fed’s nowcast) will drive intraday volatility instead. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #CPI #inflation #Fed #Williams #Bostic #Musanlem #Hammack #macro #markets #yields #shutdown
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
2
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 12, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 12, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 💬 Fed marathon day: Six Fed officials speak across the day, led by Williams, Waller, and Bostic — giving markets multiple reads on the Fed’s reaction to soft labor data and upcoming inflation prints. 📉 Policy sensitivity rising: With no major macro releases this week, investors are hypersensitive to tone shifts in Fed commentary — especially regarding rate-cut timing and balance sheet guidance. 🧩 Positioning churn: After a light Tuesday session, liquidity normalizes as equities digest global risk appetite and pre-CPI setups. 📊 Key Data and Events (ET) ⏰ 9:20 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed) ⏰ 10:20 AM — Chris Waller (Fed Governor) ⏰ 12:15 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) ⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Governor) ⏰ 4:00 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) ⚠️ Note: No economic data releases today — markets will key off Fed tone and Treasury yield movement ahead of Thursday’s CPI and jobless claims (both still at risk of delay). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #Fed #Williams #Waller #Bostic #Miran #Collins #macro #inflation #yields #markets
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao