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$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Small Biz Pulse: NFIB report before the open — insight into hiring & inflation expectations. 🍏 Apple Mega-Cap Event: 1 PM ET — expected iPhone 17 lineup, Apple Watch, AirPods updates. Mega-cap headline risk for NASDAQ:AAPL and $XLK. 📉 Tape Watch: Traders positioning ahead of 🚩 PPI (Wed) and 🚩 CPI (Thu). 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Jul, rev.) ⏰ 🍏 1:00 PM — Apple Product Launch Event ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #AAPL #AppleEvent #NFIB #inflation #tech #MegaCap
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 5, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Jobs Friday = make or break. Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment, and wages will lock in Fed expectations into September. 📉 Positioning light ahead of NFP — futures choppy as traders square books. 💬 Consumer sentiment wraps the week — expectations on inflation and spending will color the tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Unemployment Rate (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Average Hourly Earnings (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Trade (Jul) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #jobs #labor #Fed #economy #bonds #Dollar
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 4, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 4, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Markets on edge after ADP + Beige Book — traders want to see if Thursday’s labor + growth data confirm a slowdown. 🏦 Treasury supply + Fed tone continue to steer $TLT/$TNX. ⚙️ Productivity & costs add another layer to the inflation debate. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Trade Balance (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q2, rev.) ⏰ 11:00 AM — Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #joblessclaims #labor #economy #bonds
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏦 Traders bracing for a labor + Fed double header — ADP jobs and the Beige Book will steer rate-cut odds into Friday’s NFP. 📉 Stocks drifted Tuesday post-JOLTS miss — markets looking for confirmation of labor cooling. 💻 Tech earnings rotation continues — volatility in AMEX:XLK spilling into broader tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment Report (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services PMI (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #BeigeBook #Fed #labor #ISM #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Aug 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🔥 Fed’s favorite inflation gauge hits: PCE arrives just as markets digest Powell’s Jackson Hole tone. 💵 Consumer under the microscope: Spending & income data reveal demand strength heading into fall. 🏭 Regional PMI wrap: Chicago PMI closes out August with a manufacturing pulse check. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — PCE Price Index (Jul) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Jul) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #Fed #bonds #economy #PMI #consumerconfidence
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Aug 28, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Aug 28, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🏔️ Jackson Hole aftershocks: Markets still digest Powell’s stance; cut odds for September in focus. 📉 GDP revision risk: Growth momentum under the microscope with Q2 update. 🛠️ Labor market cooling? Jobless claims set the tone into Friday’s PCE. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). ⏰ 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, 2nd Estimate). ⏰ 11:00 AM — Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #GDP #joblessclaims #JacksonHole #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Aug 27, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🇺🇸➡️🇮🇳 U.S. slaps 50% tariffs on Indian goods (textiles, gems, leather, machinery) starting today — inflation & trade ripple risk. 💻 Earnings spotlight: Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Alibaba reporting this week → tech volatility in focus. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ All Day — U.S. Treasury Auctions (10-year note, 5-year note + FRN). ⏰ 11:45 AM — Richmond Fed Pres. Tom Barkin speaks. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #tariffs #India #Treasury #earnings #tech #Nvidia
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Tuesday, August 26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Post-Jackson Hole digestion 🏔️ → markets recalibrate. Traders continue parsing Powell’s keynote; the path of cuts into September remains the dominant driver for $SPY/$TLT/$DXY. Durables in focus ✈️📦. Core capital goods orders (non-defense ex-air) are the cleanest read on business investment; softness fuels cut odds, strength = “higher-for-longer.” Housing affordability squeeze 🏠. Case-Shiller and pending sales provide a 2-sided look at price momentum vs. turnover; AMEX:XHB and AMEX:XLY key tickers. Consumer mood check 🛒😬. Conference Board Confidence frames labor market sentiment and forward spending intentions. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Jul) Consensus: ~-0.3% headline; core orders expected flat/slightly positive. Why it matters: Big-ticket spending → business cycle pulse. 9:00 AM — S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jun) Prior: +6.0% y/y. Why it matters: Tracks housing inflation pressure; feeds into consumer wealth effect. 10:00 AM — Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug) Prior: 100.3. Why it matters: Labor perceptions & spending intentions → AMEX:XLY sentiment. 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (Aug) Regional check on factory activity; complements durables. 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Jul) Prior: -4.1% m/m. Why it matters: Leading indicator of housing turnover; affordability squeeze. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #durablegoods #housing #consumerconfidence #Fed #DXY #TLT
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 25 – 29, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Themes Jackson Hole aftermath 🏔️ Powell’s Friday keynote sets the tone. Markets will trade on whether he opened the door to a September cut or stuck to a cautious stance. Expect chop in AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:TLT , TVC:DXY as traders recalibrate. Inflation & Jobs 🔥💼 Fresh PCE inflation and jobless claims anchor the week. Any upside surprise revives “higher-for-longer”; softness = fuel for cut odds. Retail earnings wrap 🛒 With $WMT/$TGT/ NYSE:HD behind us, discounters and specialty retailers close the season. AMEX:XRT stays a barometer of consumer resilience. Housing & confidence 🏠📉 Pending Home Sales + Conference Board Confidence will test sentiment in an affordability squeeze backdrop. Watch AMEX:XHB , $XLY. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 📅 Monday, Aug 25 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30 AM) – broad growth pulse. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:30 AM) – regional check. 📅 Tuesday, Aug 26 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM) – capex signal; core ex-transport key. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey (10:00 AM) – factory health in Mid-Atlantic. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM) – housing momentum. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM) – labor intentions, rate sentiment. 📅 Wednesday, Aug 27 MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM) – weekly mortgage pulse. Advance Economic Indicators (8:30 AM) – trade, inventories, wholesale. Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM) – affordability and turnover test. Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM) – $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE driver. 📅 Thursday, Aug 28 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – labor cooling watch. GDP (2nd Estimate, Q2) (8:30 AM) – growth momentum, revisions matter. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (11:00 AM) – regional survey. 📅 Friday, Aug 29 PCE Price Index (Jul, 8:30 AM) – Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Personal Income & Outlays (8:30 AM) – consumer demand and savings rates. Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) – manufacturing signal ahead of ISM next week. UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, 10:00 AM) – inflation expectations track. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #SPY #SPX #Fed #PCE #GDP #Housing #Confidence #Energy #Bonds #Dollar
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Friday, August 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote is the main event (10:00 AM ET). Markets want clarity on the path to cuts and any framework tweaks; the Fed’s own calendar lists the speech and KC Fed confirms the Aug 21–23 agenda. $SPY/$TLT/ TVC:DXY are the most sensitive. Risk tone turned cautious into the speech. Stocks faded Thursday as traders de-risked ahead of Powell; positioning is tight and headline-sensitive. Dollar firm / gold steady into Jackson Hole. Classic pre-keynote safety bid; futures price a high probability of a September cut, keeping two-way risk for rates and equities. Global cues: Japan CPI lands overnight; UK retail sales postponed. Japan’s July inflation print hits before U.S. cash open; the U.K.’s July retail sales were pushed to Sep 5, trimming one macro catalyst from the tape. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Fed Chair Powell @ Jackson Hole (Keynote). Why it matters: Sets near-term curve path and risk appetite; watch $TLT/ TVC:TNX and TVC:DXY → AMEX:SPY reaction. 1:00 PM — Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count. Why it matters: Energy activity → supply expectations → $CL_F/ AMEX:XLE ; persistent rig drift can nudge inflation expectations. (Released weekly at noon CT/1 PM ET.) Overnight — Japan CPI (Jul). Why it matters: Yen rates and global FX spillovers; a surprise could ripple into U.S. risk before the keynote. All day — Jackson Hole Symposium continues. Why it matters: Secondary speakers can color post-Powell reaction as positioning resets. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #JacksonHole #Powell #DXY #TLT #Gold #Energy #RigCount
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for Thursday, August 21, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Tech jitters spill as Jackson Hole kicks off. Global equities slipped following a tech sell‑off driven by concerns over U.S. intervention in chipmakers, while traders await Fed Chair Powell’s policy cues. AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:TLT under pressure as rate‑cut expectations waver. Sony hikes PS5 prices amid tariffs. Effective August 21, PlayStation 5 models in the U.S. see a $50 price increase—tariff impact spilling into consumer electronics. Raises inflation whispers amid already elevated tech cost narrative. Healthcare activism heats up. Boards at firms like Medtronic, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk shift under investor pressure—governance shake‑ups adding a layer of corporate risk and potential M&A signals. ⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 10:00 AM — Advance Services Report (Q2) (Census bureau). Quarterly weight of service economy—strong print supports Pro side of markets; weak could dial back rate‑cut hopes. 10:00 AM — Summer Youth Labor Force Survey (Annual). Goes with job‑market narrative from July—may tweak Fed sentiment depending on labor softening/stability. Jackson Hole Symposium begins. Markets now fully focused on Powell; tone could make or break short‑term equity and bond positions. ⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #Fed #JacksonHole #SPY #SPX #TLT #Sony #tech #tariffs #services #labor #activism #healthcare
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / CBOE:SPX Scenarios for Wednesday, August 20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News Jackson Hole in focus; dollar firms. Traders lean ~84% odds of a 25bp cut in September; watch TVC:DXY vs. $SPY/ NASDAQ:TLT as Powell risk approaches. Retail baton passes from HD to LOW/TGT. After HD’s hold-guidance rally, attention shifts to Lowe’s/Target for read-throughs on DIY vs. pro spend and tariff pass-through. Risk tone jittery into minutes. Tech led a pullback Tuesday; positioning lightens ahead of Fed minutes and Jackson Hole. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). Prior: +10.9% w/w (8/13). Why it matters: housing demand pulse → rates/affordability → AMEX:XHB and growth tone. 10:30 AM — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status. Prior crude change: +3.036M bbl. Why it matters: oil balance → gasoline/diesel → inflation & AMEX:XLE path. 1:00 PM — U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction. Typical close: 1:00 ET; also 17-week bill today. Why it matters: term-premium & risk appetite; tails/stop-throughs can shake $TLT/$TNX. 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (July 29–30). Watch for: depth of cut debate, tariffs → inflation, labor cooling. Why it matters: reprices path-of-rates across curve and equities. Earnings (before open): LOW, TGT, TJX, ADI (+ others). Why it matters: U.S. consumer & capex reads; category mix shifts. Lowe’s call 9:00 AM. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #FOMCMinutes #JacksonHole #DXY #TLT #XLE #LOW #TGT #TJX #ADI
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 19, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines Global markets tread water ahead of Jackson Hole. Asian equities slipped while European futures edged up on signs of diplomatic progress in the Russia–Ukraine crisis, as markets await Fed Chair Powell’s keynote. AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX still anchored to central-bank risk tone. Jackson Hole in focus. Investors are positioning for signals of a dovish tilt or rate cut cues in Powell’s speech later this week—data releases are in the shadow of event risk. Home Depot earnings loom. Retail heavyweight Home Depot reports today; strong results could buoy equities, while a miss would fan caution on consumer resilience. 💼 Key Market Developments Meta and Palo Alto highlight tech divergences. Meta shares slipped 2.3% on AI-leaning costs and metaverse skepticism, while Palo Alto surged 5% with robust Q4 and 2026 outlook—creating bifurcated leadership in tech. Stagflation & AI risk lurk. Analysts warn of stagflation threats and fading AI momentum as catalysts for a broader pullback—S&P 500 still up ~10% YTD, but vulnerable. ⏱ Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📅 Tuesday, August 19, 2025 Canada Inflation Rate (July): Expected 2.0% y/y — a minor but global inflation cue U.S. Building Permits (July): Forecast ~1.39M — housing sector signpost ahead of Powell’s speech Corporate Highlight: Home Depot (HD) earnings — earnings and commentary on inflation, tariffs, demand dynamics ⚠ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #JacksonHole #Fed #SPY #SPX #HD #HomeDepot #JacksonHole #inflation #earnings #tech #AI #SP500
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 18–22, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 18–22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏔️ Jackson Hole (Thu–Sat): Chair Powell headlines the Kansas City Fed symposium—path-of-rates + growth vs. inflation = front-page risk for AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DXY $TLT. 📝 FOMC Minutes (Wed): Deeper read on July meeting dissents and tariff/inflation views—rate-cut odds in play. 🛒 Retail Heavyweights: Earnings updates from NYSE:WMT NYSE:HD NYSE:TGT NYSE:LOW NASDAQ:ROST = real-time consumer pulse for AMEX:XRT and broader risk tone. 🏠 Housing Check: Starts/Permits + Existing Home Sales frame construction demand and affordability; watch AMEX:XHB and long rates. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊 📅 Tue, Aug 19 • Housing Starts & Building Permits (8:30 AM) 📅 Wed, Aug 20 • FOMC Minutes (July meeting) (2:00 PM) 📅 Thu, Aug 21 • Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM) • S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mfg/Services) (9:45 AM) • Existing Home Sales (Jul) (10:00 AM) • Conference Board Leading Index (10:00 AM) • Jackson Hole Symposium begins (all day; speeches through Sat) 📅 Fri, Aug 22 • No major U.S. releases (focus: Jackson Hole headlines + positioning) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #FOMC #JacksonHole #housing #PMI #retailsales #SPY #SPX #DXY #TLT #XHB #XRT
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 15, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🔥 PPI Shock Keeps Cuts in Question — July producer prices +0.9% m/m (largest in ~3 yrs) with broad gains in goods & services. Rate-cut odds pared; watch front-end yields, TVC:DXY , NASDAQ:TLT , and cyclicals. 💵 Dollar Firmer, Gold Softer — The hot PPI print lifted the dollar; gold is set for a weekly dip as hopes for a big cut fade. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊 📅 Friday, Aug 15 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (July); Retail Sales ex-Autos. 8:30 AM — NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing (Aug). 8:30 AM — Import & Export Price Indexes (July). 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (July). 10:00 AM — Business Inventories (June). 10:00 AM — Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Aug). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #retailsales #EmpireState #industrialproduction #MichiganSentiment #SPY #SPX #DXY #TLT
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 14, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 14, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 CPI cooldown keeps cut odds alive — July CPI held at +0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y); Core +0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y) heading into today’s PPI. Watch $SPY/ SP:SPX vs TVC:DXY and NASDAQ:TLT for inflation momentum cues. 🤝 Tariff truce extended 90 days — U.S.–China pause now runs through Nov 10, removing near-term trade shock risk for NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AAPL and other SP:SPX heavyweights. 🇨🇳 China credit contraction — July new bank loans fell for the first time in 20 years, signaling weak demand and adding a global growth headwind to the tape. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊 📅 Thu, Aug 14 • 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 9) • 8:30 AM — PPI (July) — Headline & Core • 2:00 PM — Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin speaks ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #CPI #PPI #Fed #SPY #SPX #DXY #TLT
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 13, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 13, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📉 CPI cooldown keeps cut odds alive — July CPI came in +0.2% m/m, +2.7% y/y; Core +0.3% m/m, +3.1% y/y, reinforcing a “disinflation but not done” vibe. Watch $SPY/ SP:SPX vs. TVC:DXY and NASDAQ:TLT as markets handicap a September cut. 🛢️ EIA sees crude sliding sub-$60 — The EIA’s August outlook projects Brent <$60 in Q4 ‘25 as supply growth outpaces demand; energy equities ( AMEX:XLE ) and $USO/$CL_F stay sensitive to this path. 🏦 Fed-speak cluster today — Three regional Feds on deck (Barkin, Bostic, Goolsbee). Any shift in tone on tariffs vs. labor softness can move the front end and equities. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊 📅 Wed, Aug 13 • 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly). • 8:00 AM — Richmond Fed’s Tom Barkin speaks (Greenville Chamber). • 10:30 AM — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (inventories, products). • 1:00 PM — Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee Q&A (12:00 CT luncheon; livestream). • 1:30 PM — Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic remarks (economic outlook). • 1:00 PM — U.S. 10-Year Note Auction (Treasury) — usual mid-month supply; watch $TLT/$TNX. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #CPI #Fed #oil #bonds #SPY #SPX #TLT #DXY #XLE
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 12, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 12, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇨🇳 Tariff Truce Extended 90 Days The White House signed an order late Monday extending the U.S.–China tariff pause by 90 days—removing a key overnight risk into CPI day. Watch AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX , TVC:DXY , NASDAQ:TLT for the reaction. 💵 Dollar Firms Into CPI The dollar edged higher ahead of this morning’s inflation print as traders recalibrate rate-cut odds; stocks and long U.S. yields were choppy into the release. 🗓️ Quiet Tape, Big Catalyst Futures and global markets stayed cautious into CPI; positioning is tight after Monday’s drift lower. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events (ET) 📊 📅 Tue, Aug 12 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (July). 8:30 AM — CPI (July) & Core CPI (official BLS release). 10:00 AM — Richmond Fed Pres. Tom Barkin speaks (Chicago; 9:00 CT). 10:30 AM — Kansas City Fed Pres. Jeff Schmid speaks (9:30 CT). 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (July) (Treasury MTS, 8th business day). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #CPI #Fed #SPY #SPX #DXY #TLT
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 11–15, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 11–15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Inflation Double-Header: CPI Tue + PPI Thu set the tone for AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX , rates, TVC:DXY , $TLT. 🏦 Fed Speaker Blitz: Barkin, Schmid, Goolsbee, Bostic—watch headlines for rate-path hints. 🛍️ Consumer Pulse Friday: Retail Sales + Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization = read on demand & output. 🧭 Keep it tight: Focus on CPI, PPI, Claims, Retail Sales, IP/CapU. Everything else is background noise. 📊 Key Data Releases (most impactful only) 📊 📅 Tue, Aug 12 • CPI (July) — Headline & Core (8:30 AM ET) • Fed: Barkin & Schmid speak (10:00 AM ET) 📅 Thu, Aug 14 • Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) • PPI (July) — Headline & Core (8:30 AM ET) • Fed: Barkin (2:00 PM ET) 📅 Fri, Aug 15 • Retail Sales (July) — Headline & Ex-Autos (8:30 AM ET) • Industrial Production (July) (9:15 AM ET) • Capacity Utilization (July) (9:15 AM ET) • Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Aug) (10:00 AM ET) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #CPI #PPI #retailsales #Fed #SPY #SPX
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 8, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🧾 Tariff Shock → Day 2 Positioning Markets are still digesting the new tariff regime (10%–41% on broad imports) and the proposed 100% levy on imported semiconductors with carve-outs for firms investing in U.S. production. Expect continued dispersion: U.S.-capex-heavy names bid; globally exposed hardware, autos, and consumer electronics face margin risk until rules are clarified. 💬 Policy Signaling Risk Fed speakers are leaning cautious on growth and inflation pass-through from tariffs; Bostic flagged skepticism that tariff-driven price effects fade quickly. Translation: don’t count on a rapid dovish pivot because of tariffs alone. ⛽ Energy & Positioning Into the Weekend Oil beta in focus: Baker Hughes U.S. rig count (1:00 pm ET) and CFTC COT (3:30 pm ET) hit this afternoon—both can nudge energy, USD, and risk appetite into the close. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Friday, August 8, 2025 10:20 AM ET – St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (remarks) Market angle: watch for any tariff-inflation commentary and guidance on the path/timing of cuts. 1:00 PM ET – Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Reads on drilling activity; oil services beta and crude sentiment. 3:30 PM ET – CFTC Commitments of Traders (weekly) Positioning update across futures/FX; risk heading into next week. (No major Tier-1 U.S. macro prints scheduled today; next CPI is Tuesday, Aug 12.) Bureau of Labor Statistics ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational info only, not financial advice. Do your own research. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #tariffs #chips #energy #rigcount #COT
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 7, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 📦 Major Tariffs Implemented Today Sweeping tariffs ranging from 10% to over 40% officially took effect today on imports from numerous countries, significantly escalating global trade tensions. Markets are closely tracking initial reactions across affected sectors, especially pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. 💻 Semiconductor Tariff Shakes Tech Sector President Trump introduced a substantial 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, with notable exemptions for U.S. investors such as Apple, Nvidia, and AMD. Apple shares surged 5.1% amid investor optimism, while broader tech stocks saw mixed reactions. 🚀 Firefly Aerospace IPO Debut Firefly Aerospace launched its IPO today, pricing shares at $45. The stock began trading on Nasdaq under ticker "FLY," attracting significant attention due to its positioning in the space and defense technology sector. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Thursday, August 7, 2025: 8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 2) Forecast: 221,000 Previous: 218,000 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Productivity (Q2) Forecast: 1.9% Previous: –1.5% 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Unit Labor Costs (Q2) Forecast: 1.3% Previous: 6.6% 10:00 AM ET – Wholesale Inventories (June) Forecast: N/A Previous: –0.3% 10:00 AM ET – Speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Topic: Monetary policy outlook; market-sensitive for potential Fed signals. 3:00 PM ET – Consumer Credit (June) Forecast: N/A Previous: $5.1B ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational use only and is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tech #earnings #IPO #Fed #tariffs #semiconductors
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 6, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 6, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🪙 Citi Lifts Gold Price Forecast Amid Global Uncertainty Citi raised its short-term gold outlook to $3,500/oz, citing surging safe-haven demand driven by trade instability, softening labor metrics, and heightened geopolitical risk. Risk premiums and volatility remain elevated. 📉 Equities Tumble as Risk Aversion Returns U.S. stocks slipped on renewed caution—investors rotated into bonds and precious metals following weaker job indicators and escalating trade friction. The dollar and gold strengthened, while equity futures pulled back. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, August 6: No major U.S. economic data releases scheduled for today. Markets are closely monitoring corporate earnings reports and commentary from Fed officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly later in the day. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #trade #currency #gold #earnings
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 5, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🔹 PBOC Moves Prompt FX Backlash On August 5, 2019, China’s central bank allowed the yuan to depreciate over 2% to its lowest level since 2008. That same day, the U.S. Treasury officially designated China as a currency manipulator, citing the PBOC’s moves as retaliation for recent U.S. tariff actions. In response, China ordered state-owned enterprises to suspend purchases of U.S. agricultural goods—a significant blow to U.S. exporters. 🔹 EU Suspends Counter-Tariffs for Six Months Following a negotiated framework with the U.S., the European Union suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods for six months. The move aims to de-escalate trade tensions while joint discussions continue. 🔹 Citi Raises Gold Price Outlook to $3,500/oz Citi revised its short-term trading range for gold to $3,300–$3,600 per ounce, based on weakening U.S. labor data, rising inflation pressure from tariffs, and growing demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold traded around $3,356 oz on Monday. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, August 5: 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Trade Balance (June) Expected to improve modestly to –$67.6 billion (from –$71.5B), reflecting tariff-influenced shifts in import/export volumes. 9:45 AM ET – S&P Global U.S. Final Services PMI & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (July) Key indicators of service-sector strength. Readings above 50 suggest expansion; below 50, contraction. Flash estimates forecast moderated growth in activity. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #trade #data #inflation #currency
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao