$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 20 → Oct 24, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 20 → Oct 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Inflation week: The delayed CPI release on Friday could be the first key data drop since the shutdown began — all eyes on price momentum and Fed expectations.
📉 Jobless Claims live feed: The only consistent macro signal right now — still reporting despite shutdown; any uptick could rattle yields and growth sentiment.
💬 Fed tone matters more: Policymakers continue to speak through the data void; expect market sensitivity to even minor policy hints.
💻 Earnings peak week: Roughly 80+ S&P 500 names report, including several mega-caps — likely to set the tone for AMEX:SPY and $QQQ.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
Mon 10/20
⏰ No major scheduled data
Tue 10/21
⏰ No major scheduled data
Wed 10/22
⏰ No major scheduled data
Thu 10/23
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 18) — only active weekly macro indicator
⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Sept) (may be delayed due to shutdown)
Fri 10/24
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (CPI & Core CPI, Sept) (delayed release expected)
⚠️ Note:
With most official data frozen, Jobless Claims and CPI carry extra weight. Expect sharp intraday swings on any surprise readings or leaks.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #JoblessClaims #Fed #inflation #bonds #yields #shutdown #earnings #economy #megacaps #datawatch
Charting
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 17, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Data blackout risk: Friday was set for key housing and production reports — but the ongoing shutdown means most prints (Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Import Prices) may not be released.
📉 Macro vacuum: With no confirmed data, traders lean on positioning and bond moves to gauge growth sentiment into the weekend.
💬 Earnings carry the weight: Corporate results take the spotlight as macro inputs dry up.
💻 Technical tone: AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ watchlist rotation continues — watch volatility pockets if liquidity fades mid-session.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts & Building Permits (Sept) — scheduled but may not print
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Sept) — scheduled release
⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Sept) — scheduled but may not print
⚠️ Note: Friday wraps a quiet macro week dominated by missing data and Fed commentary. Expect a headline-driven close with limited participation ahead of weekend risk.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #housing #IndustrialProduction #ImportPrices #Fed #bonds #economy #shutdown #yields #equities
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 16, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 16, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Big macro day — if it happens: Retail Sales & PPI headline the morning, but both reports may be delayed under the ongoing shutdown. Markets will trade on expectation and reaction instead of prints.
📈 Consumer + price pulse: These two data points were expected to test the “soft-landing” narrative — inflation vs. spending resilience.
💬 Fed-speak heavy: Barkin, Waller, Bowman, and Miran dominate the lineup; tone on inflation stickiness may shape yields.
🏠 Housing check: Homebuilder Confidence offers a softer read on the real-economy drag from higher mortgage rates.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:00 AM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) remarks
⏰ 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Sept) & PPI (Sept) — scheduled but may not print
⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) — scheduled release
⏰ 9:00 AM — Stephen Miran & Christopher Waller (Fed Govs) speeches
⏰ 10:00 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) remarks + Homebuilder Confidence (Oct)
⏰ 12:45 PM / 4:30 PM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) speeches
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #RetailSales #PPI #Fed #Barkin #Waller #Bowman #Miran #inflation #bonds #shutdown #economy #yields #housing
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Growth pulse check: The Empire State Manufacturing Survey kicks off the day — a real-time test of factory sentiment post-summer slowdown.
📘 Fed Beige Book afternoon drop: Key read on regional activity and inflation anecdotes — markets often reposition after release.
💬 Fed parade continues: Bostic, Miran, and Waller keep rate-cut expectations in focus ahead of Thursday’s data risk.
⚠️ Shutdown overhang: Broader data (CPI/PPI/Retail) still paused — traders key off qualitative signals like Beige Book tone.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct)
⏰ 12:10 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech
⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 1:00 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book
⚠️ Note: Shutdown continues to delay most federal data releases. Beige Book offers the only official economic snapshot this week — high read-through for inflation, wages, and business conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #BeigeBook #EmpireState #Waller #Bostic #Miran #bonds #yields #inflation #shutdown #economy
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 14, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Powell returns: The Fed Chair’s midday remarks anchor Tuesday — traders watch tone shifts after a light Columbus Day tape.
💬 Fed-heavy lineup: Bowman, Waller, and Collins fill out the day — policymaker divergence could move yields and risk assets.
📈 Small biz sentiment: NFIB optimism opens the day, giving early insight into Main Street labor and inflation pressures.
⚠️ Shutdown overhang: Broader data flow still limited — markets key off Fed speak and earnings momentum.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sept)
⏰ 8:45 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 🚩 12:20 PM — Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech
⏰ 3:25 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 3:30 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) speech
⚠️ Note: No high-tier macro data releases due to shutdown effects — Fed communication and earnings dominate the tape.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Powell #Fed #Waller #Bowman #Collins #NFIB #yields #bonds #shutdown #economy #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 13–17, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 13–17, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Inflation-heavy week: PPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production headline the macro slate — but several may be ⚠️subject to delay due to the shutdown.
💬 Fed circuit overload: 10+ Fed speakers including Bowman, Waller, Bostic, Barkin, and Miran — tone-watching replaces missing data.
📉 Consumer & housing pulse: Retail Sales, Homebuilder Confidence, and Housing Starts offer critical insight into demand — if they post on time.
💻 Earnings meets macro: Early Q3 results from banks + big tech guide sentiment alongside muted macro signals.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
📅 Mon, Oct 13 — Columbus Day 🇺🇸 (Bond Market Closed)
⏰ 12:55 PM — Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed) speaks
📅 Tue, Oct 14
⏰ 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sept)
⏰ 8:45 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 3:25 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 3:30 PM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) speech
📅 Wed, Oct 15
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct)
⏰ 12:10 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech
⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 1:00 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book
📅 Thu, Oct 16
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Retail Sales (Sept) — ⚠️ May be delayed due to shutdown
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Sept) — ⚠️ May be delayed
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) — ⚠️ At risk of delay
⏰ 9:00 AM — Waller & Miran (Fed Govs) speeches
⏰ 10:00 AM — Homebuilder Confidence (Oct)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Gov) remarks
⏰ 12:45 PM / 4:30 PM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) speeches
📅 Fri, Oct 17
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Housing Starts / Building Permits (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay
⏰ 🚩 9:15 AM — Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (Sept) — ⚠️ Possible delay
⚠️ Shutdown Watch:
Several economic reports (Retail Sales, PPI, Jobless Claims, Housing, Industrial Production) depend on agencies like the Census Bureau, BLS, and BEA — if the shutdown persists, these will be postponed until government funding resumes.
Expect headline-driven trading, Fed-speak sensitivity, and lighter macro liquidity through the week.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #Bowman #Waller #Bostic #Barkin #Miran #RetailSales #PPI #BeigeBook #inflation #bonds #shutdown #economy #housing #earnings #macro
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 10, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Consumer pulse check: UMich prelim sentiment drops back into focus — inflation expectations will steer bond yields & risk tone.
📉 Shutdown drag: Budget data may stay delayed — leaving traders to anchor on Fed commentary & macro positioning.
💬 Fed watch: Goolsbee’s remarks could frame how policymakers interpret slowing sentiment versus resilient inflation.
💻 End-week flows: Re-balancing pressure + light liquidity could magnify afternoon swings in AMEX:SPY and $QQQ.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 9:45 AM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) opening remarks
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Oct) — Forecast 60.4 | Prior 53.5
⏰ 2:00 PM — Monthly U.S. Federal Budget (Sept) subject to delay due to shutdown
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Goolsbee #UMich #sentiment #budget #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #economy #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 9, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Powell spotlight: The Fed Chair’s morning remarks set the tone for risk sentiment — traders watching for policy bias hints.
💬 Fed overload: Bowman, Kashkari, Barr, and Daly dominate the docket — expect intraday rate-path chatter.
📉 Shutdown shadows: Jobless Claims* and Inventories* may face data delays; market liquidity remains headline-driven.
💻 Macro rotation: AMEX:SPY trades tightly to yield moves; tech leadership faces cross-currents as real rates stay firm.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Fed Chair Jerome Powell opening remarks
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4) subject to delay
⏰ 8:35 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision) welcoming remarks
⏰ 8:45 AM — Michelle Bowman speech
⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug)* subject to delay
⏰ 12:45 PM — Neel Kashkari + Michael Barr discussion
⏰ 3:45 PM — Michelle Bowman speech
⏰ 4:10 PM — Mary Daly (SF Fed) speech
⏰ 9:40 PM — Mary Daly evening remarks
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #Bowman #Kashkari #Barr #Daly #joblessclaims #bonds #Dollar #shutdown #economy #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 FOMC Minutes drop: Traders zero in on the Fed’s tone around balance sheet runoff and rate-cut timing clues.
📉 Macro sentiment reset: Bond yields + USD volatility remain key — equities tracking real-rate shifts post-minutes.
💬 Fed chorus continues: Barr, Kashkari, and Goolsbee headline a dense speaker lineup shaping policy narrative.
💻 Tech leadership check: Mega-caps face another liquidity test as macro dominates tape action.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 9:20 AM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) remarks
⏰ 9:30 AM — Michael Barr (Fed Governor) speech
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (September Meeting)
⏰ 3:15 PM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) speech
⏰ 5:45 PM — Michael Barr (Fed Governor) remarks
⏰ 7:15 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) speech
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Fed #Powell #Barr #Kashkari #Goolsbee #minutes #bonds #Dollar #economy #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Shutdown overhang: The U.S. Trade Deficit release remains at risk; traders lean on Fed commentary for macro tone.
📉 Rates + dollar watch: Treasury yields stay elevated ahead of FOMC Minutes (Wed); AMEX:SPY sensitivity to TVC:DXY remains high.
💬 Fed parade: Five speakers on deck — market parsing for any shift in post-Powell narrative.
💻 Tech + liquidity: $AAPL/ NASDAQ:MSFT flows continue driving AMEX:XLK rotation amid tightening liquidity backdrop.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech
⏰ 10:05 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision) remarks
⏰ 10:45 AM — Stephen Miran (Fed Governor) speech
⏰ 11:30 AM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) speech
⏰ 3:00 PM — Consumer Credit (Aug)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #Bostic #Bowman #Kashkari #Miran #tradebalance #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #megacaps #economy
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 6 → Oct 10, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Oct 6 → Oct 10, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Shutdown overhang: Some data (Trade, Jobless Claims, Budget) remain at risk of delay; markets lean on Fed tone instead.
📉 Fed-heavy week: Nearly every regional president and governor is on deck — tone from Powell (Thu) + FOMC Minutes (Wed) = the core catalyst.
💻 Earnings prep: Q3 pre-announcements begin — NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA remain leadership barometers.
💵 Rates & positioning: 10Y yields and USD remain key drivers into mid-month CPI/PPI stretch.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
Mon 10/6
⏰ 5:00 PM — Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed) speech
Tue 10/7
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug)
⏰ 3:00 PM — Consumer Credit (Aug)
🗣️ Fed Speakers — Bostic (10:00), Bowman (10:05, 8:35, 8:45), Miran (10:45, 4:05), Kashkari (11:30)
Wed 10/8
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (September Meeting)
🗣️ Fed Speakers — Musalem (9:20), Barr (9:30, 5:45), Kashkari (3:15), Goolsbee (7:15)
Thu 10/9
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Fed Chair Powell remarks (opening keynote)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug)
🗣️ Fed Speakers — Bowman (8:35, 8:45, 3:45), Kashkari + Barr (12:45), Daly (4:10, 9:40 PM)
Fri 10/10
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Oct)
⏰ 2:00 PM — U.S. Federal Budget (Sept)
🗣️ Fed Speakers — Goolsbee (9:45)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Powell #FOMC #Fed #joblessclaims #tradebalance #consumerconfidence #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #megacaps #economy
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 NFP risk — but delayed: September Employment Report, unemployment rate, and wages won’t publish if shutdown continues. Markets will run on positioning + PMIs instead.
📉 Labor vacuum: Absence of NFP could amplify volatility as traders trade on speculation.
💬 Fed-heavy Friday: A parade of Fed speakers guides tone into weekend positioning.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 6:05 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) speech
⏰ 8:30 AM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) TV appearance
🚩 At Risk of Delay (shutdown):
• 8:30 AM — Employment Report (Sep): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Avg. Hourly Earnings
✅ Still Publishing:
⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Final Services PMI (Sep)
⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services (Sep)
🗣️ Fed Speakers:
• 9:30 AM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov, TV)
• 1:30 PM — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed)
• 1:40 PM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair)
• 3:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov, TV)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #jobs #Fed #Powell #shutdown #ISM #PMI #bonds #Dollar #economy
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 2, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Oct 2, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Shutdown watch: Traders brace for possible delays in major data releases; only essential reports like jobless claims likely to print.
📉 Post-ADP/ISM digestion: Markets recalibrate after Wednesday’s jobs + factory data ahead of Friday’s 🚩 NFP.
💵 Fed chatter: Dallas Fed’s Logan adds to policy tone as markets parse shutdown + labor signals.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) (will publish even under shutdown)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug) (at risk of delay if shutdown persists)
⏰ 10:30 AM — Fed Speaker: Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #joblessclaims #factoryorders #Fed #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #economy
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 1, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 1, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Jobs + factories double hit: ADP jobs and ISM Manufacturing kick off October with the labor + growth pulse.
📉 Q4 repositioning: Funds reset exposures after quarter-end — volatility risk elevated.
🛢️ Auto lens: Auto sales (TBA) add color on consumer durability.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment (Sep)
⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Construction Spending (Aug)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing (Sep)
⏰ TBA — Auto Sales (Sep)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #ISM #manufacturing #jobs #economy #Dollar #bonds #autos #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Q3 closeout: Last trading day of September = quarter-end rebalancing flows in equities and bonds.
💵 Fed watch: Multiple Fed speakers across the day keep policy tone in focus.
💻 Mega-cap drift: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA leadership remains sensitive to yields + growth data.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul, 20-city)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Sep, Conf. Board)
⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Sep)
🗣️ Fed Speakers:
• 6:00 AM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair)
• 9:00 AM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed)
• 1:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed)
• 3:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed, TV appearance)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #JOLTS #ConsumerConfidence #CaseShiller #PMI #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 29 → Oct 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 29 → Oct 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Month/Q3 closeout: Quarter-end rebalancing + fund flows set tone early in the week.
🚩 Jobs Week: ADP (Wed) + NFP (Fri) will dominate macro narrative and Fed expectations.
💻 Mega-cap rotation: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT drive tech leadership amid yield volatility.
🌐 Housing + confidence: Home sales + Case-Shiller + sentiment test consumer resilience.
💵 Rates & Fed tone: Packed Fed speaker slate keeps policy path in play alongside data.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
Mon 9/29
⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Aug)
Tue 9/30
⏰ 🚩 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Sep)
⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Sep)
Wed 10/1
⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment (Sep)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing (Sep)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Construction Spending (Aug)
⏰ TBA — Auto Sales (Sep)
Thu 10/2
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug)
Fri 10/3
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Unemployment Rate (Sep)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Average Hourly Earnings (Sep)
⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services (Sep)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #ADP #Fed #Powell #jobs #unemployment #wages #housing #consumerconfidence #PMI #bonds #Dollar #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 26, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Month-end flows: Positioning shuffle as traders square books into Q3-end.
💵 Fed lens: Multiple Fed appearances keep policy tone in focus post-SEP.
💻 Tech + growth watch: AMEX:XLK flows remain sensitive to yields + inflation gauges.
🛢️ Commodities check: Oil and dollar volatility continue to set cross-asset tone.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Spending (Aug)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — PCE Price Index (Aug) + Core PCE (YoY & MoM)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Sentiment (Final, Sep)
🗣️ Fed Speakers:
• 7:30 AM — Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed, TV appearance)
• 9:00 AM — Tom Barkin (speech)
• 1:00 PM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #inflation #Fed #Powell #joblessclaims #consumer #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 25, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 25, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Data-heavy morning: Multiple macro releases hit at 8:30 AM, setting tone across bonds, USD, and equities.
💬 Fed chorus: Packed lineup of Fed speakers keeps policy narrative in focus.
💻 Tech + rates tension: AMEX:XLK flows remain sensitive to bond yield direction post-FOMC.
🛢️ Energy lens: Oil volatility continues to act as an inflation wildcard.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, third estimate)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Aug)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Aug)
🗣️ Fed Speakers:
• 8:20 AM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed)
• 9:00 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) & Jeff Schmid (Kansas City Fed)
• 10:00 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision)
• 1:00 PM — Michael Barr (Fed Gov.)
• 1:40 PM — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed)
• 3:30 PM — Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #GDP #joblessclaims #durablegoods #housing #Fed #Powell #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Month-end positioning: Flows light as traders prep for Thursday’s 🚩 GDP + Jobless Claims.
💻 Mega-cap drift: Tech leadership remains central with $AAPL/ NASDAQ:NVDA volatility post-Powell.
💵 Rates + housing: Home affordability narrative continues to weigh on broader risk tone.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — New Home Sales (Aug)
⏰ 4:10 PM — San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #housing #Powell #economy #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 23, 2025 🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 23, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Post-Fed digestion: Equities and bonds still recalibrating after last week’s SEP + Powell tone.
💻 Mega-cap watch: Tech + AI flows continue to drive AMEX:XLK sentiment.
🌐 Central bank chatter: A busy Fed speaker slate gives extra volatility into month-end.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 9:00 AM — Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speech
⏰ 🚩 9:45 AM — S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep) — Services & Manufacturing
⏰ 10:00 AM — Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
⏰ 🚩 12:35 PM — Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Powell #Fed #PMI #economy #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 22 → Sept 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 22 → Sept 26, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Post-Fed positioning: Traders continue to recalibrate after last week’s cut + SEP; rates & USD tone drive risk.
💻 Mega-cap watch: NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA guidance/AI chatter keeps AMEX:XLK leadership in focus.
🛢️ Energy & FX: Oil swings and a firm dollar remain cross-asset headwinds.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
Tue 9/23
⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep) (Mfg & Services).
Wed 9/24
⏰ 10:00 AM — New Home Sales (Aug).
Thu 9/25
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly).
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, Third Estimate).
⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Aug).
⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Aug).
Fri 9/26
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Aug) incl. PCE/Core PCE.
⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Sep).
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #GDP #PMI #joblessclaims #housing #consumer #Fed #Dollar #oil #megacaps
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 19, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 19, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Week-end positioning: Traders de-risk after a heavy Fed + macro week; watch flows into bonds and equities.
💬 Consumer & labor narrative: Markets digest Fed messaging alongside claims + LEI signals.
🌐 Global spillover: Europe and Asia equities feed into U.S. tone with light U.S. catalysts on deck.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 10:00 AM — State Employment & Unemployment (Aug)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #labor #economy #bonds #Dollar #risk
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 18, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Post-Fed digestion: Markets recalibrate after Wednesday’s 🚩 FOMC decision + Powell press conference.
💵 Dollar & yields watch: FX and Treasury moves reflect how traders interpret the Fed’s updated path.
💻 Tech + growth trade: Positioning in AMEX:XLK and high-beta names remains key as rates reset.
🛢️ Energy chatter: Oil volatility keeps AMEX:XLE and inflation hedges in focus.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep)
⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Aug)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #joblessclaims #economy #Dollar #bonds #tech #oil






















