Alibaba - Trading opportunity is finally there!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Almost a decade ago Alibaba stock retested a strong support at the psychological $60 level and reversed significantly towards the upside. Just a couple of months ago Alibaba stock once again retested this support and created an anticipated reversal. If Alibaba stock actually manages to break above the current resistance trendline, we could maybe see a similar rally like we saw in 2015 and the following years.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Chinesestocks
BABA: Set for a Bullish Reversal, Potential Gains Exceed 50%?Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NYSE:BABA !
On the weekly chart, BABA is making some exciting moves! It's broken out of a falling wedge pattern, forming a bullish candlestick with a long wick right on the EMA 34 line. But what really caught our eye? The significant volume spike, more than double the average. Now, why does this matter? Well, it's a clear sign of increased buying interest and strong market conviction behind the price movement. And wait, there's more good news: the MACD indicator is showing a bullish divergence, hinting at a potential reversal. So, what's the forecast? We're looking at a potential upward swing to close the gap near our first target at $117.89. After that, we might see a slight dip to the yellow zone before it continues its rally towards our second target at $165.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below
CHINA A50 on the 1W MA100 after 2.5 years! Ultimate Bull test!When we looked at the China A50 index (CN50) last year (December 21 2023, see chart below), we got the best buy entry possible on more than 1 year span:
Our long-term Target at the time of 13000 is almost hit but it now time to re-evaluate our perspective as the index not only hit the top of its almost 2-year Falling Wedge but more importantly made contact with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in almost 2.5 years (since the week of December 28 2021).
This is the ultimate test for the Chinese market. A closing above that Resistance cluster, will turn us bullish again, targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 14250. Until that closing happens, we turn bearish on the medium-term, targeting 11850 (just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level).
It has to be mentioned that the 1W RSI has already made a bullish break-out above its 3-year Lower Highs trend-line, potentially hinting finally towards a long-term trend change to bullish.
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Tencent Set to Release 'Dungeon and Fighter' Mobile Game in May Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) the Chinese multinational giant, has announced the release of its highly anticipated mobile game, 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin'. Developed by Korean company Nexon, the game is a mobile adaptation of the popular computer game 'Dungeon and Fighter', which is considered to be one of the world's most profitable computer games.
This announcement comes after seven years of development, during which the game initially received government approval for release in 2017, before having its approval revoked. However, Tencent was granted a new license for the game in February of this year.
The official release date for 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin' has been set for May 21. The action game is expected to be a significant addition to Tencent's mobile game portfolio, given its immense popularity and profitability.
Technical Outlook
Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) stock is up 2.29% prior the fundamentals trading above the 200-day Moving Average (MA) with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58. The stock has consolidated in price for the 2nd time starting a new rising trend after the current consolidation faced at $11.76 pivot point.
Tencent's Rocket Ride: Heading for 1338 HKD?
For Tencent Holdings, we currently believe we are in an overarching Wave III, which should be created with a 5-wave structure upwards. This should naturally extend far beyond the Wave I level at the all-time high of 715 HKD. We anticipate a rise to at least 1338 HKD for this overarching Wave III. Wave II concluded at 188.6 HKD. Zooming in, we see that we are about to complete Waves (1) and (3) and soon enter into the Wave (3). Wave (2), as we expect, might dip slightly further, to 241 HKD. However, we are convinced that we could be in a long upward trend. Therefore, we do not want to be stopped out prematurely, as it would be quite unnecessary. A double bottom at 188 HKD cannot be ruled out. Thus, we place our entry at the 50% extension for the very subordinate Wave ((v)) and just above the 78.6% retracement level for the subordinate Wave (2). This would create what's known as a Fibonacci retracement cluster, where there should be a significant buying potential. We will see how it unfolds in the coming weeks or days. Should there be a rise above 297 HKD, we may need to reconsider our stance.
Xiaomi: Next Big Bang on the Hong Kong Stock Market?
For another interesting Chinese stock, we're looking at the mobile phone manufacturer Xiaomi, trading on the Hong Kong Exchange. Hence, we're dealing with the Hong Kong Dollar, not the US Dollar. Overarchingly, we are also in a Wave III here. Wave II concluded its correction with a double bottom at HK$8.28. This chart adheres well to the Elliott Wave structure, showcasing many patterns that align well.
Currently, we believe we are in a subordinate Wave 3, having completed the subordinate Wave ((ii)) between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Unlike other stocks, we aim to place a market entry here, as we anticipate that we should not fall below the 78.6% level. Else we could come back to the low of 8.28 HKD.
Wuxi Biologics (2269): Incredible long-term opportunity! Wuxi Biologics (2269): HKEX:2269
Wuxi Biologics, a Chinese biotech research company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, presents a complex investment scenario. It's crucial to note we're dealing with the Hong Kong Dollar, not the US dollar. The comprehensive analysis on the weekly chart suggests that since June 2021, the company has been undergoing a correction defense scenario. This downturn has been so pronounced that the stock might need to reach its origin point at 8.56 HKD to complete the correction cycle of Wave 2 through Wave (Y) in blue. This process is expected to involve an initial surge followed by a downturn.
While there's potential for early position building, the decision to do so carries its uncertainties, given regulatory concerns and the stock's unpredictable future. Our strategy is to remain patient, observing how events unfold. Even with a 30% stop-loss threshold, which practically doesn't apply given the upside, we anticipate a minimum 2600% movement for Wave III in red, with the potential to reach an extraordinary 6000% at maximum. Such figures outline the vast upward trajectory expected, not just through Wave 3 but also with an ensuing Wave V.
Therefore, we are comfortable waiting and watching for the right entry point. Even if we decide to enter the market at a later stage, we expect that Wuxi Biologics will still offer significant opportunities.
JD.com Resurgence: Surpassing Expectations JD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ), the Chinese e-commerce giant, has emerged victorious in the face of economic headwinds, defying expectations with impressive fourth-quarter revenue figures that have ignited a surge in investor confidence. With shares soaring 15% , JD.com's strategic maneuvers and resilience in a challenging market landscape have captured the attention of analysts and stakeholders alike.
The company's success in the final quarter of 2023, buoyed by aggressive price cuts and heavy discounts during China's renowned Singles Day shopping festival, underscores its ability to adapt and thrive amidst economic turbulence. Despite China's shaky economic growth and concerns surrounding youth unemployment and stagnant wages, JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) innovative approach to stimulating consumer demand has yielded remarkable results.
Chief Executive Sandy Xu Ran's announcement of plans to expand JD.com's international presence marks a pivotal moment in the company's trajectory. With a keen focus on supply chain optimization, JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) aims to establish itself as a global powerhouse, leveraging its distinct business model and competitive advantages to penetrate new markets.
The prospect of JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) potential acquisition of UK electronics retailer Currys further underscores its commitment to international expansion. As the company seeks to diversify its revenue streams and mitigate risks associated with domestic market fluctuations, analysts anticipate a strategic move that could bolster JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) global footprint and drive long-term growth.
JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) stellar quarterly performance, with net revenue surpassing analyst estimates at 306.1 billion yuan ($42.52 billion), reflects its enduring popularity among cost-conscious consumers. Despite concerns stemming from an internal audit of its Dada Nexus unit, JD.com's overall revenue remains robust, alleviating investor apprehensions and reaffirming confidence in the company's resilience.
Moreover, JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) announcement of a $3 billion share repurchase program underscores its commitment to enhancing shareholder value and capitalizing on market opportunities. With its U.S.-listed shares experiencing a recent downturn, JD.com's proactive measures signal a strategic pivot towards revitalizing investor sentiment and unlocking future growth potential.
As JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) reports a net income attributable to shareholders of 3.4 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from the previous year, the company's trajectory appears poised for further success. With a steadfast focus on innovation, expansion, and shareholder value, JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) continues to navigate the complexities of the global market with confidence and determination.
BABA forming a head and shoulders patternThis chonk has been talked about alot. Because we are all trying to figure out why the 2nd amazon of the world has been beat down so bad.
So, here we are, with a beautiful and crystal clear line in the sand thick neck line. Break that neck line, confirm the pattern, off to the races. 125 target long term ,then reestablish a view. ||Chart is inverted.
BYD's Earnings Rollercoaster: Price Wars and Global DemandsIn a recent filing with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, BYD Co. ( NYSE:BYD ) announced a robust surge in its 2023 net income, projecting an increase of 75% to 86.5% compared to the previous year. Despite this impressive growth, the company fell short of analyst expectations, sparking a 5.44% drop in NYSE:BYD shares and extending losses to roughly 37% over the past year. The complex dynamics of a price war in China, fluctuating global demand, and geopolitical tensions have shaped NYSE:BYD 's financial landscape, offering investors a unique narrative to decipher.
I. Electric Vehicle Sales Triumph:
NYSE:BYD 's ascent to become the top electric vehicle (EV) maker by sales in the final quarter of 2023, outpacing industry giant Tesla, marked a significant milestone for the Chinese automaker. Bolstered by soaring sales in China, NYSE:BYD delivered 526,409 fully electric cars, surpassing Tesla for the first time. The impressive feat was attributed to BYD's extensive lineup of more affordable EV models, highlighting the company's strategic positioning in the world's largest auto market.
II. Price War Woes:
Despite the stellar sales performance, NYSE:BYD faced the challenges of a price war in China's fiercely competitive EV landscape. In a bid to achieve annual delivery targets, the Shenzhen-based company implemented aggressive discounts, slashing prices on popular models like Qin, Han, and Tang by as much as 10,000 yuan. The impact of this pricing strategy has been reflected in NYSE:BYD 's earnings report, where net income fell short of the average analyst estimate.
III. Geopolitical Scrutiny:
NYSE:BYD 's success has not shielded it from geopolitical tensions, as the company finds itself under the European Commission's anti-subsidy investigation. Alongside two other carmakers, NYSE:BYD faces scrutiny to determine if state support from the Chinese government has provided an unfair advantage. Navigating this investigation adds a layer of uncertainty to NYSE:BYD 's future, as regulatory challenges could potentially impact the company's global operations.
IV. Slower Growth Pace and Profitability:
While NYSE:BYD 's net profit is expected to show a remarkable increase, the growth rate in 2023 is notably slower than the exceptional 446% surge witnessed in 2022. Despite fierce industry competition, NYSE:BYD emphasizes significant improvement in profitability and resilience, attributing its success to factors such as rapid growth in overseas sales, a scale advantage, and efficient cost control within the supply chain.
V. Future Outlook:
NYSE:BYD 's foray into the Southeast Asian market with the unveiling of three battery EV models in Indonesia signals the company's ambitious expansion plans. As NYSE:BYD aims to secure the top market position in Southeast Asia's largest economy, the global EV landscape remains dynamic and unpredictable. Investors will closely watch how NYSE:BYD navigates the evolving industry landscape, responds to geopolitical challenges, and sustains its momentum in the face of intense competition.
Conclusion:
NYSE:BYD 's journey in 2023 has been characterized by triumphs in sales, challenges in pricing strategies, and the looming shadow of geopolitical scrutiny. The company's ability to navigate these complexities will shape its trajectory in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market. As investors assess the risks and rewards associated with NYSE:BYD , the story unfolds as a compelling narrative of a company grappling with the highs and lows of a transformative industry.
MOMO LongI don't usually post trade setups that include eliott waves, however this one is really captivating.
MOMO completed a 5 wave Impulse from its low before recently completing an ABC correction where the second wave completed at a perfect bearish bat, and then the wave hit its measured move below the key support level. The correction waves bottomed out at a key level from history that coincides with the 0.618 fib retracement level from the low to high of the Impulse phase. This potentially signals a wave 2 completion of a larger 5 Wave Impulse up
One of the strongest setups we look for is a spring backtest, where an asset falls below a key level, before springing back above that key level and backtesting it as support. In this case we are yet to backtest it as support. However, we have sprung and are showing lots of bullish divergence, so within the community we have started to layer in from this level.
First target at a key resistance already gives us a 38% return against a potential 8% loss.
CHINA A50: Time to buy Chinese stocks.The China A50 index (CN50) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since July 2022 and more recently in particular hasn't been able to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since September 08. That bearish sentiment may be coming to an end as the 1D MACD is about to form a new Bullish Cross in the same order as the November 01 2022 Low.
This could be the bottom (Lower Low) of the Falling Wedge and the start of the new Bullish Leg towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, as the January 28 2023 High did. We are now buyers on this index, targeting the top of the Falling Wedge at 13000.
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Can Alibaba double from here?The Chinese MNC had displayed its last big impulse move in Oct.2022.In this move(labeled wave 1) the Chinese giant gained 106% between Oct.2022 till Jan.2023.
Between Jan.2023 to May 2023 the stock got into wave 2 correction and corrected 61.8% of the wave 1 rally(the correction was an Elliot wave zigzag).
The stock displayed a bit of strength again on the completion of the Zigzag and managed to get a leading diagonal as the first leg of the bigger Third wave that is now anticipated of the stock.
The stock currently is at 80%retracement of the leading diagonal and 77.77$ level is a crucial support for the stock. The current corrective phase seems to lack one tiny leg to the downside(wave c of Z) and as soon as that is achieved the stock should only look North then from here all the way till 160$ mark.
Note*- The chart is based on personal observations/opinions. Kindly do your own research before taking up any trade.
China Life Insurance: Bounced back🎾After placing the low of the blue wave (ii) at the lower border of the orange target zone between $10.10 and $11.32, China Life Insurance's share price initially rose to the upper border of the target zone last week, gaining over 12%. However, the price has not yet been able to sustainably break out of the zone, causing it to bounce and fall again. As a result, entry opportunities remain within the zone on the long side, with stops placed around 1% below the lower border. We expect the price to rise well above the zone and cross the resistance at HK$15.84. Only an imminent break below the support level at HK$8.53 would diminish this outlook. This would activate the 33% probable alternative, which involves a lower low of the green wave alt.(2).
Hang Seng Index: Motivated! 💪The bulls were able to push the Hang Seng Index significantly higher on Friday, moving it further away from the yellow trading range between 17,424 and 15,571. However, we still expect the price to return to this area as part of the magenta wave (2) to make a lower low before the reversal occurs. That said, given the price action so far, we have to increase the probability of our alternative to 41%. In this case, the low of the magenta wave alt.(2) would already be in place and this scenario would come into play on a rise above the resistance at 18,898. However, it should be noted that our long-term expectation has already been fulfilled with the completion of the trading range. In both cases, there is considerable upside potential in the medium to long term. The price should clearly overcome the resistance at 20,899.
CHINA A50: Chinese stocks are the buy opportunity of a decade.The China A50 index (CN50) is trading within a Falling Wedge pattern and on the larger picture a Channel Up with its Higher Highs being on June 09 2015 and February 16 2021. The price is now closer to the Channel Up bottom and the pricing of a new long-term Higher Low (bottom), which already makes it a great buy opportunity. Of course the most optimal level to enter would be as close to the bottom as possible, especially of the 1W RSI makes one more Higher Low on its Triangle.
We have seen the very same 1W RSI Triangle in November 2012 - February 2014, when the index was within a similar Falling Wedge. The same RSI Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) eventually caused the March 18 2014 rebound. This is why the most optimal level to buy would be on the (current) RSI Higher Lows. If that isn't materialized, we will enter when the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) breaks, which will be a bullish break-out confirmation. In either case, our long-term target is the 2.382 Fibonacci extension level at 23000.
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Alibaba (BABA) -> This After -80%My name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Alibaba.
For me personally it was quite impressive that Alibaba stock dropped more than 80% after the massive 400% increase from 2015 to 2020.
Recently Alibaba stock retested and already rejected the previous all time low of 2015 and I think that it is just a matter of time until we will see a monthly bullish break of structure.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
YANG China Leveraged Bearish LONGYANG benefits when the China factories slow down and the economy stagnates
which is the present situation. The weekly chart shows YANG at its highest before
and after covid in 2019-2020. The volume profile shows over the 3+ years most shares
have traded at the present price levels. Price is rising above the POC line of the
volume profile and approaching the long term mean VWAP. The RS indicator shows
sideways strength movement in the mid-ranges. The MACD is curling upward over
a low amplitude histogram. The Asexome Oscillator is sideways. Overall, I will place a
long trade here and then supplement it with an add when the trend direction is stronger
and the Average Directional Index gains amplitude.
YINN - a leveraged bullish ETF for Chinese stocks.YINN is a 3X leveraged bullish ETF of Chinese stocks. As can be seen on this one hour chart,
YINN has jumped nearly 30% since the beginning of the moth. On the chart is a moving average
ratio indicator ( with settings SMA7 / SMA28 ratio ). When the ratio crosses the zero line, the
shorter average is rising faster than the longer average demonstrating bullish momentum. Here
I used it as an entry signal. ( the exit signal would be the ratio dropping below the zero
horizontal line which has not yet occurred) For confirmation and further entry justification,
the volatility indicator shows spikes above the running average volatility in order to be
that there is enough volume and price action to get into a good trade in the direction of
the trade. Fundamentally, the Chinese economy is open and growing. the CCP has resisted the
urge to raise prime rates as compared with Western central banks. ( BABA and NIO have
good current price action.) Given the guidance of the chart, YINN seems to be a
good long trade I will continue to add to the trade when the chart tells me the time is right.
Is YINN ( Chinese 3X )ready to re-enter or add to the position?YINN is shown here on a 15-minute chart. It had several good NY sessions in a row adding about
4% daily. In the last session however, it had a 3% pullback to its present price. Fundamentally,
the Chinese central bank in just the past few days, lowered the prime rate something the US
fed has been unwilling to consider. There can be little doubt that this will be helpful to
Chinese stocks overall. On the chart, I find several confluences that give YINN support and
so make it likely that YINN will have a bullish continuation:
(1) it is currently at the same value of the POC line.
(2) it is currently near to the convergence of the SMAs 50 20 and 10 from the
Alligator indicator
(3) it is sitting just above the line representing one standard deviation above
the anchored mean VWAP
Given these confluences, the support is strong favoring my analysis that YINN is ready
for me to add to my position which was very profitable when I took a partial closure
of my shares at the beginning of the last trading day. I am confident that the buy
high and sell higher in an uptrend is the best approach to gain with low risk.
Chinese ETF Possible HUGE Move!Watch NASDAQ:BIDU NYSE:TME AMEX:CWEB NYSE:BABA NASDAQ:NTES NASDAQ:PDD . Most are breaking out
Scoop up some strong ones!!
Reasoning
Whole Industry is moving!
Divergence between Composite and RSI on 4D chart
Consolidation seems done
Correction is not overextended
Multiple Bullish Days
Always try to use 2 timeframes
My Would Be Trade Plan
- Risk about 1.5ATR and aim to ride up to 4.5ATR (1:3)
- Raise stop once Trade moves 2ATR in your direction
- Add on new highs after a pullback. (Then raise stop to keep original risk and also do not modify the target price)
Main Sources of My Knowledge
Mark Minervini
Constance Brown
William O'neil
Speakers on Trader Lion Youtube
Adam Khoo
My Indicators
14 Period RSI.
9SMA and 45EMA Moving Averages added
Composite by Constance Brown
This is for catching failures in the RSI.
The RSI is a bounded indicator so sometimes fails to catch divergences. This indicator helps show that
Composite Settings
Author : Constance Brown (Connie Brown)
RSI Length : 14
RSI Momentum Length : 9
SMA Length : 3
Fast Simple Moving Average : 13
Slow Exponential Moving Average : 33
IQ in the zone of supporta Chinese tech stock which broke out if's downtrend earlier this year. This area and slightly lower should be support. We're also at daily and weekly BB support and weekly 100ma support (not pictured).
RSI is hinting that the stock is very oversold and could see significant upside to 10 dollars or more.
Keep in mind this may also just be part of a correction in which case the red path is more likely. Either way I think a tradable bounce is coming.
See my china posts below - good luck!