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Gold Vs Bitcoin- I don’t publish much these days and right now, it’s very difficult to analyze Bitcoin in isolation. - The market is currently heavily focused on metals, and retail investors usually rush into whatever is already pumping, which is precisely what you want to avoid. - This chart is not a prediction, but it can help identify good entry zones to accumulate more BTC. What we need is confirmation. Gold has formed a double top breakout and moved above $5,000. From here, regardless of whether gold continues higher, the key is to wait for a bearish divergence and then rotate. - When Bitcoin begins its next leg up, Gold.D should start to roll over. Until then, and until clear signals appear, the safest approach is to stay on the sidelines. Sometimes, the best trade is not to trade at all, just wait patiently for the right opportunity. Happy Tr4Ding !
by thecryer
Middle East Risks Keep Brent Oil Bullish — Higher TargetsAs I expected in the previous idea , Brent Crude OIL( BLACKBULL:BRENT ) has risen and reached its targets, with a Risk-To-Reward: 2:01 (full target). Brent Crude OIL is currently trading near the support zone($63.30-$62.00) and the support lines. From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that Brent Crude OIL has completed main wave 4, and we can now expect the next impulsive wave for the main wave 5. Additionally, news from the Middle East does not indicate a reduction in tensions, and we can expect potential surprises in the region. Therefore, I prefer to maintain long positions in Brent Crude OIL rather than short positions, and I’m looking for triggers to enter long. I expect that Brent Crude OIL will once again target the resistance zone($66.80-$65.00) and potentially rise to around $66.47. The next target could be the yearly pivot point($67.30). First Target: $66.47 Second Target: $67.30 Stop Loss(SL): $62.60 Points may shift as the market evolves 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDCAD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by pejman_zwin
1
Brent Oil M30 HTF Discount Reaction and Bullish Continuation📝 Description BLACKBULL:BRENT crude oil has completed a corrective pullback after a strong impulsive rally and is now stabilizing above a key short-term demand zone. Price has reacted cleanly from the SSL and lower boundary of the recent range, suggesting buyers are defending this area and preparing for another leg higher toward premium liquidity. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bullish while price holds above the recent swing low and SSL Preferred Setup: • Entry: 65.015 • Stop Loss: Below 64.730 • TP1: 65.25 • TP2: 65.45 • TP3: 65.73 ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Sell-side liquidity sweep followed by bullish displacement • Reaction from intraday support and SSL confirms demand • No bearish break of structure after the pullback • Upside targets aligned with prior highs and premium liquidity ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary As long as BLACKBULL:BRENT holds above the 64.75–64.90 support zone, the bullish continuation scenario remains favored. The current pullback appears corrective, with expectations of a rotation higher toward recent highs and upper liquidity pools. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Oil sentiment remains constructive amid steady demand expectations and the absence of strong bearish catalysts. Short-term pullbacks into defended demand zones are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by TFlab
Gold Approaches $5,000 Resistance Amid PRZ & Divergence🎂 Today marks the beginning of a new chapter in my life. When I blow out the candles, my greatest wish is not just for myself — I wish health, peace, freedom, and happiness for all people around the world. May every heart feel calm, every soul feel safe, and every dream find its way. This year, I hope we grow stronger together, share deeper insights, and move toward success with wisdom, profit, and humanity. Thank you for being part of my journey. 🤍✨ ----------------------------------- With the start of this week, gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) has opened with a significant gap upward, driven by tensions surrounding Greenland and Trump’s threats of tariffs on European countries, as well as the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East. This has contributed to gold’s upward trend over the past few days. Over the last few days, gold has been creating new all-time highs with each passing day. The question is whether gold can break through the psychological resistance level of $5,000 without any correction, or if it will continue its bullish trend smoothly. Gold is currently near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) around the Round Number: $5,000. Looking at it from an Elliott Wave perspective on the 1-hour timeframe, it seems that gold is completing its wave 5, which could occur within the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . We also notice a significant negative Regular Divergence(RD-) between two consecutive peaks. Today’s upcoming US Flash PMI and Consumer Sentiment data could act as a short-term catalyst for Gold. If Manufacturing and Services PMI print clearly stronger than expectations, it would signal ongoing economic resilience in the US, support the USD, and reduce near-term rate-cut expectations. In that scenario, Gold may face short-term downside pressure or a corrective pullback, as the market reprices a more patient Federal Reserve stance. I expect gold to decline from the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , possibly dropping to around $4,884. If the support lines are broken, we could see further declines toward $4,851. First Target: $4,884 Second Target: $4,851 Stop Loss(SL): $5,016 Points may shift as the market evolves Note: It’s important to note that when an asset sets a new all-time high, technical analysis becomes less reliable since it lacks historical data. Note: In general, it is not possible to provide a medium-term or long-term analysis for gold because there are currently many parameters that can affect the gold trend. I’d love to hear your thoughts on gold. How long do you think it can maintain this bullish trend? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by pejman_zwin
20
Will #USOIL (WTI Crude) Falling Channel Rise? –Weekly Timeframe Will #USOIL USOIL (WTI Crude) Falling Channel Rise? – Weekly Timeframe Technical Analysis Current Price: 61.1 Market Structure WTI remains in a long-term corrective phase following the 2022 peak - Over 50% Retracement. Price action is clearly contained within a well-defined descending channel (red), characterised by lower highs and lower lows. This confirms that, structurally, the market is still bearish on a primary timeframe. However, price is now trading very close to the lower boundary of the channel with a double bottom, where downside momentum historically weakens. Key Support & Demand Zone Major support is between 56.00 – 61.00 This zone has acted as a multi-year demand area, repeatedly absorbing selling pressure. The most recent weekly candles show **rejection wicks and reduced downside follow-through**, suggesting seller exhaustion rather than aggressive distribution. A sustained weekly close **below 56** would invalidate this current recovery and expose the low-40s. Resistance & Upside Levels If price holds above support and breaks channel resistance, the following upside levels come into focus: 73.96 Prior structural resistance and midpoint reaction zone 91.95 Major range resistance from previous distribution 111.65: Upper macro resistance 127.95: Long-term target aligned with prior highs. These levels align well with historical supply zones and would likely trigger profit-taking on any rally. Momentum, Bias and Invalidation Momentum remains neutral-to-bearish but losing downside strength A weekly close above the descending channel would signal a structural shift from bearish continuation to bullish recovery. Until that breakout occurs, rallies should still be treated as corrective within a broader downtrend. Invalidation and Bearish Continuation lives below 56 (A weekly close below) Conclusion WTI is at a critical inflection point. While the dominant trend remains bearish, price location favours a potential upside reaction due to strong historical demand and channel compression. Confirmation, not anticipation, is key. Not Financial Advice!!
TVC:USOILLong
by Ifiok-Trades
Gold at $7,000? The Strategic Case for the Next Historic LeapGold has shattered the psychological glass ceiling. With spot prices piercing the $5,000 mark in January 2026, the yellow metal has entered uncharted territory. While UBS forecasts a consolidation around $5,000, a growing chorus of institutional voices now identifies a credible path to $7,000 per ounce. This trajectory is not merely speculative; it is the mathematical output of a fractured global order. The following analysis dissects the structural drivers propelling gold toward this new paradigm. Geopolitics: The Chaos Premium The "fear trade" has evolved into a permanent "chaos premium." Markets are pricing in the unpredictability of the U.S. administration, where foreign policy is increasingly used as a transactional lever. President Trump’s recent threats regarding Greenland’s status and tariffs on European allies have injected unprecedented volatility into the Atlantic alliance. Simultaneously, U.S. military maneuvers involving Venezuela and escalating tensions with Iran have dismantled the traditional assumption that U.S. assets are the ultimate safe haven. Investors are fleeing this geopolitical instability, utilizing gold not just as insurance, but as a non-sovereign store of value immune to sanctions or diplomatic seizure. Geostrategy: The Sovereign Pivot A quiet revolution is occurring in central bank vaults. The global monetary architecture is shifting away from a dollar-centric system, driven by the weaponization of finance. Central banks are aggressively diversifying reserves, with official purchases forecast to reach 950 tonnes in 2026. This is a strategic realignment, not a tactical trade. Nations like China and others in the Global South are systematically replacing U.S. Treasuries with gold to inoculate their economies against potential asset freezes. This "sovereign bid" creates a price floor, effectively removing massive quantities of bullion from the circulating supply and tightening the market structure. Macroeconomics: The Debasement Trade The most potent catalyst for $7,000 gold lies in the erosion of fiat currency credibility. The "debasement trade" is accelerating as investors confront the reality of U.S. fiscal sustainability. With national debt exceeding $324 trillion globally and U.S. deficits widening, the Federal Reserve faces immense pressure to monetize debt. Real yields are expected to remain subdued or negative, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. As the Fed potentially moves toward a more dovish stance to support labor markets, the dollar’s purchasing power declines, mathematically necessitating a higher gold price to value the world’s outstanding liabilities. Industry Trends & Technology: The Scarcity Engine Physical constraints are colliding with algorithmic demand. Fibonacci extension models used by technical analysts now identify $7,040 as a major target zone, driven by momentum trading and high-frequency algorithms chasing the breakout. On the supply side, the industry faces a geological plateau. New major discoveries are rare, and ore grades are deteriorating, making extraction more expensive and technically challenging. This scarcity is compounded by a structural deficit in silver, which often leads gold in precious metal bull markets. The combination of finite supply and infinite monetary expansion creates a powerful engine for price appreciation. Conclusion The ascent to $7,000 is no longer a fringe theory but a plausible outcome of converging crises. Gold has transitioned from a cyclical commodity to a strategic necessity for preserving capital. As faith in political institutions wavers and the global debt burden swells, the market is actively repricing the world’s oldest form of money.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by the5erstrading
Natural gas 50% rally eyes $5.25! Arctic blast, Trump $83b shiftWhile everyone is focused on gold hitting $5,100 and silver approaching $110, natural gas has staged one of the most vertical rallies we've seen in years, surging nearly 50% from the mid-January low of $2.65 to near $4.00 in just 10 days. Is this the start of a sustained bull market? We analyse the powerful combination of weather-driven demand and structural policy shifts driving natural gas prices higher. We break down the technical setup across multiple timeframes, identifying key resistance zones and two potential scenarios for the next move. Key topics : Dual fundamental catalysts : Arctic blast : The polar vortex hit the US harder than forecasted, spiking heating demand and freezing production in key basins. Trump's $83 billion shift : The administration cancelled green energy loans and redirected funds specifically to Natural Gas and Nuclear infrastructure, adding a structural tailwind to long-term demand. Daily analysis : Golden Cross confirmation : Price broke above the 200MA and is now testing the 50MA, confirming the bullish cross from November. 50% Fibonacci resistance : Currently testing the $3.95 level (50% retracement from $5.24 to $2.65) with RSI at 60—room for another 10 points of upside momentum. Cluster resistance : The confluence of the 50MA and 50% Fib creates strong resistance, but a break could turn this into powerful support. 4-hour chart : Scenario 1 (Cup & Handle complete) : If the pattern is finished at the 23.6% Fib, the measured move targets $4.70 (78.6% extension). Scenario 2 (Double Top at $4.00) : RSI divergence suggests resistance could hold. A pullback to $3.45-$3.65 would form the handle, with the neckline projection targeting $5.25. Trade setup Entry : Current levels or on pullback to $3.45-$3.65. Stop Loss : Below the 61.8% Fibonacci (unlikely to break if this is a true impulse). Target : $5.25 (previous December 2025 peak), with potential extension if $4.25 breaks decisively. Risk Management : Secure partial profits along the way and trail stops to protect gains. Are you buying the dip or waiting for confirmation above $4? Let us know in the comments! This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:NGASLong
by ThinkMarkets
3
Gold: Overbought but unstoppable, $5K next?The previous week was another strong week for the price of gold, where the newest ATH has been reached. The week started at the level of $4.580 and ended at $4.989. The market is expecting that the price of gold might reach the $5K target at the start of the week ahead. The high level of political and geopolitical insecurity including uncertain effects on macroeconomic factors, all contributed to the weakening of the US Dollar and further strong push of the price of both gold and silver. The price of silver reached $100 this week, which was the strongest push of this metal for many decades in the past. The RSI continues to move in the highly overbought territory, reaching the level of 82 on Friday. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days are still moving without any changes for a longer period of time, as two parallel lines with an uptrend. Generally, when there is such a strong demand for one asset and it continuously is moving historically higher grounds, technical analysis cannot provide higher accuracy in probabilities. Analysts are noting that the next target for gold is the $5K mark, which is at this moment quite feasible. The bottom-line is that currently fundamentals are moving markets, and not the real state of the economy. As long as insecurity and fear are driving investors sentiment, so long the safe-haven asset will go higher. Reversal can be expected at some point, but it should not be a significant one.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XBTFX
1
BTCUSD: continuation of the fall🛠 Technical Analysis: BTC is trading below the 90K psychological zone after the recent pullback, with price compressing near the MA cluster (dynamic resistance). The rising support line and the 88,335 area act as the key “trigger” zone: a clean breakdown can open the way for a deeper correction. Nearest resistance is 92,193 . Key downside support/target zone is 80,820. ——————————————— ❗️ Trade Parameters (SELL) ——————————————— ➡️ Entry Point: 88335.83 🎯 Take Profit: 80820.02 🔴 Stop Loss: 92193.50 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by Trade8Eight
$NATGAS - Ready for Winter Storms ahead ?PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS January/2026 Weekly Chart - East Coast and North-East of United States are about to face a harsh winter ahead Short-Term Strong Bullish Momentum Fundamentally driven for PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS High Probability Set-up Semi-Correction is expected as a Bullish pull-back and profit taking , leaving so, some breathing room for new participants to jump on-board, as well decreasing the risk-reward ratio if not yet entered. www.youtube.com TRADE SAFE *** NOTE THAT THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ! PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE PARTAKING ON ANY TRADING ACTIVITY BASED SOLY UPON THIS IDEA
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by Mr_J__fx
GOLD - Test $5000... Will the rally continue?FX:XAUUSD closes Friday's session with a new record and consolidation after the rally. Focus on 4988 - 4968. The session closed quite favorably for continued growth, everything depends on Asian traders... Fundamentals: The tense situation between Trump and the EU over Greenland and tariffs is still present. The Bank of Japan intervened (which strengthened the yen), triggering a fall in the dollar, which in turn is affecting the price of gold. Overall, the market remains aggressively bullish. New session: - Fed meeting (January 31) – focus on Powell's tone. Softening rhetoric on inflation could weaken the dollar and support gold. - Selection of a new Fed chair (announcement possible by the end of January) – candidates Waller or Warsh are perceived as more “dovish,” which could put pressure on the dollar. - Geopolitics – any escalation with Iran will trigger a new influx into gold Resistance levels: 4988, 5000, 5024 Support levels: 4967, 4958, 4945 Gold maintains its upward momentum, driven by a weak dollar and geopolitical risks. Any correction is likely to be limited. Asian traders may buy up all the supply. A breakout and close above 4988 could trigger a continuation of the rally to 5025-5050. However, it is possible that the market may test support at 4958-4945 before rallying... Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
14
XAUUSD 1H Outlook Today: Bullish Channel ContinuationXAUUSD 1H Outlook Today: Bullish Channel Continuation, Key Support-Resistance & Trade Setups Gold (XAUUSD) is still trading inside a clean rising channel on the 1H chart, printing higher highs and higher lows with strong impulsive legs. The latest candle shows price holding near 5095 after pushing a weak high area, which often invites a short pullback before the next expansion. 1H Market Structure: Trend Is Up, But “Weak High” Needs Liquidity The move from the mid-zone breakout to the current top is impulsive, and the channel structure remains intact. The top is tagged as a weak high (equal highs/liquidity pool behavior). That usually means: Either a quick sweep above the high then continue higher, or A dip to rebalance (pullback into value) before continuation. Key Resistance Levels (Sell Pressure / Take-Profit Zones) 5095–5100: Current weak high and immediate supply reaction zone. 5120–5130: Next resistance if price breaks and holds above 5100. 5160: Higher target aligned with projected channel continuation (next expansion leg). Key Support Levels (Buy Zones / Defensive Lines) 5065: Intraday swing low on the latest 1H candle; first line of defense for bulls. 5040: Psychological + structure support; also matches typical channel pullback behavior. 4900–4920: Major demand zone (visible grey block). If price returns here, it’s a high-quality “reset” area for trend continuation. 4820–4840: Deeper demand zone (second grey block). This becomes the “last hold” for the broader bullish swing. 4660: Larger timeframe base support (lower grey band). Fibonacci Map (Best “Value” Areas for Dip Buys) Using the latest upswing into the 5095 area, the highest-probability rebalance zones typically sit at: 0.382 retracement: around 5045–5035 0.5 retracement: around 5020–5005 0.618 retracement: around 4990–4970 In an uptrend, the 0.382–0.5 zone is often the “aggressive buy-the-dip” area, while 0.618 is the “last discounted entry” before structure starts to weaken. EMA + RSI Confirmation (How to Filter Bad Trades) EMA (20/50): In a healthy channel, price tends to respect the faster EMA on pullbacks. If your EMA20/EMA50 are stacked bullish and price holds above them after a dip, that’s confirmation for continuation buys. RSI (14): Bull trend behavior: RSI holds above 50 and often rides 60–70 during impulses. Warning sign: bearish divergence near 5095–5100 can trigger a pullback to 5065/5040 before pushing higher again. Trading Strategies for Today (High-Probability Plans) Plan A: Breakout Continuation (Buy the Break + Retest) Condition: 1H close above 5100, then a retest holding above 5095–5100. Entry idea: Buy on retest confirmation (bullish candle close back above the level). Stop loss: Below 5065 (or below the retest swing low if tighter). Targets: 5120–5130, then 5160. Why it works: Sweeping a weak high + holding above it often flips the level into support and triggers the next expansion leg. Plan B: Trendline Dip Buy (Buy at Channel Support + Fib Value) Condition: Price rejects 5095–5100 and pulls back into 5065 → 5040 region while staying inside the channel. Entry idea: Buy at channel lower trendline confluence with Fib 0.382–0.5 zone. Stop loss: Below 5030 (aggressive) or below 4990 (safer, if volatility is high). Targets: Back to 5095–5100, then extension to 5120–5160. Why it works: In rising channels, the best R:R usually comes from buying the lower boundary, not chasing the top. Plan C: Short Only If Structure Breaks (Countertrend Scalp) Condition: Clear rejection at 5095–5100 followed by a 1H break below 5065. Entry idea: Sell the breakdown retest of 5065 (now resistance). Stop loss: Back above 5095. Targets: 5040, then 5020–5005, deeper target 4900–4920 if momentum accelerates. Why it works: You avoid shorting into strength; you only short once the market proves a structural shift. What Would Invalidate the Bullish Bias? Sustained trading below 5040, then a deeper acceptance toward 4990–4970. A full rotation into 4900 demand is not automatically bearish, but it means the market is rebalancing deeper and you should reduce leverage and wait for confirmation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
2
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to 50% Fibo 4933.Colleagues, the price continues its upward movement in wave “5” of the higher order (red wave), and a major correction is already quite close, but we need to understand where the upward momentum will end. I believe that the price will renew its maximum and rise to the 50% Fibonacci extension level to the 4933 area, which will mark the end of the middle wave “5” and the higher wave “5”. It is possible that wave “4” will be renewed, but I do not believe that the correction will be deep. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Hellena_Trade
62
#GBPJPY , Continue to hell ?📊 Morning Market Brief | London Session Prep 🔎 Instrument Focus: #GBPJPY ⚠️ Risk Environment: High 📈 Technical Overview: I believe there is a chance we do see retracement from the point and goes up a bit then drop , but lets have this plan in our watchlist either. 🚀 Trading Plan: • Wait for Momentum around key levels • LTF ENTRY NEEDED • Manage risk aggressively, and secure ASAP. 🧠 Stay updated with real time news and macro events, visit 👉 @News_Ash_TheTrader_Bot #Ash_TheTrader #Forex #EURUSD #MarketInsight #PriceAction #TradingPlan #RiskManagement #LondonSession #Scalping #Futures #NQ #Gold
Short
by Ash_TheTrader
Gold (XAUUSD) – Technical Analysis | Market StructureFrom a technical standpoint, gold continues to trade within a structurally sound bullish environment. Price action maintains a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that the broader upward structure remains intact. Recent pullbacks have been controlled and shallow, suggesting consolidation rather than trend exhaustion. Instead of aggressive selling, the market shows signs of balance during retracements, with buyers stepping in at higher levels. This behavior is typical of a healthy trend where participation remains supportive. At this stage, price is approaching a key area of technical interest, where demand was previously active. Such zones often act as decision points, as the market temporarily slows down to reassess the balance between buyers and sellers. A sustained hold above this area would keep the bullish structure valid and allow price to continue respecting the broader trend. On the upside, the 4,870 USD region stands out as a notable technical reference, aligned with prior structural interaction. This level represents an area where price may react, rather than a guaranteed objective. From a risk perspective, the current structure would only be challenged by a decisive break below the established support zone. Until such a development occurs, downside moves are best viewed as part of a broader consolidation process rather than a trend reversal. Overall, gold remains technically supported, with price behavior favoring continuation as long as key structural levels continue to hold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lounaa_
46
XAUUSD 4H: Structured Markup, Gaps as Support, ATH in SightOANDA:XAUUSD H4 – Structured Markup, Gaps as Support, ATH in Sight On the H4 timeframe, Gold remains firmly in a strong bullish market cycle, progressing cleanly through a multi-phase markup structure. The chart clearly shows Phase 1 → Phase 2 → Phase 3, each marked by higher bases, shallow pullbacks, and strong continuation candles. This is not emotional buying. it’s controlled institutional accumulation transitioning into expansion. A key technical feature here is the series of unfilled bullish gaps (inefficiencies) left behind during impulsive legs. These gaps align closely with prior consolidation ranges and the rising EMA, effectively acting as dynamic demand zones. As long as price remains above the most recent gap (~4,680–4,700), the bullish structure stays intact. Pullbacks into these areas should be viewed as corrective pauses, not trend failure. Price is now approaching the psychological 5,000 zone, marked as both resistance and a projected new ATH target. From a structural standpoint, continuation is favored after consolidation, not immediately. The most probable path is stair-step price action: brief pullbacks, higher lows, then renewed expansion. A clean break and acceptance above 5,000 would confirm the next leg higher, opening the door for trend extension beyond ATH. Invalidation only occurs if Gold loses the upper gap support decisively, which would imply deeper mean reversion toward lower inefficiencies. Until that happens, this remains a trend-following market, and chasing tops is riskier than waiting for pullbacks into structure. Gold is not overextended it is well-structured, trend-aligned, and supported by inefficiencies below. This is a textbook bullish continuation environment, with patience being the edge.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HENRY_TraderGold
When Commodities Crash Up 100% and Then Price Gets SandwichedIntroduction: Crash-Ups Are Structural Events, Not Accidents One of the defining characteristics of commodities is their ability to reprice violently. Unlike many financial assets that tend to trend gradually, commodities can remain less trendy for extended periods, only to move vertically once a constraint is exposed. These episodes are commonly referred to as crash-ups—rapid advances driven not by optimism, but by urgency. Crash-ups are rarely comfortable. They compress decision-making, expand volatility, and force market participants to react rather than plan. Yet, paradoxically, the most important phase often comes after the vertical move, when price transitions from repricing to negotiation. This article examines a recent case where price advanced more than 100% in less than two weeks, only to run directly into pre-existing structural zones while leaving behind new ones. The outcome is a market now sandwiched between competing forces, offering a useful case study in how fundamentals ignite moves, but structure governs what follows. Crash-Ups in Commodities: Why They Happen So Fast To understand why crash-ups are common in commodities, it helps to recognize their underlying mechanics: Inelastic short-term supply: Production and delivery cannot be adjusted quickly, especially under stress. Demand spikes are immediate: Weather, geopolitical events, or logistical disruptions can cause instantaneous consumption changes. Storage smooths, but does not eliminate, shocks: Inventories buffer long-term imbalances but often fail to absorb timing mismatches. When these forces collide, price doesn’t “trend”—it jumps. The Fundamental Catalyst: What Triggered the Repricing The recent surge aligns with a familiar chain reaction seen repeatedly in energy markets: Extreme cold as a demand shock: A sharp drop in temperatures materially increased heating demand across key regions, forcing immediate repricing. Operational strain under cold conditions: Extreme weather can impair production, transportation, and deliverability, reducing effective supply when demand peaks. Positioning imbalance: When markets are positioned defensively, sudden demand shocks often trigger forced covering, accelerating price expansion. Why inventory levels didn’t prevent the move: Even when inventories are above historical averages, short-term deliverability can still become constrained. Crash-ups are often about when supply is needed, not how much exists in aggregate. Fundamentals started the move. From this point forward, the question becomes structural, not fundamental. Why the Weekly Timeframe Matters After a Vertical Move After crash-ups, lower timeframes tend to produce misleading signals. Indicators oscillate wildly, and momentum-based tools lose context. This is where the weekly chart can become essential. Weekly structure answers one key question: Where did the market previously fail to transact efficiently? In this case, the answer is clear: open gaps—both old and new—now frame the entire discussion. Upper Structure: A Legacy Gap Re-enters the Equation December 2022 open gap: 6.600 → 6.154 This gap has remained unresolved for years, representing a zone where price previously moved too fast to facilitate balanced trade. When markets revisit such areas, they often encounter latent supply. Importantly, gaps are not magnets by default. They are decision zones: Price may fill them Price may stall within them Price may reject sharply The outcome depends on acceptance, not momentum. Confluence Above: UFO Supply Reinforces the Ceiling Overlaying the legacy gap is a broad UFO (UnFilled Orders) sell zone: 5.337 → 7.105 This zone represents historical sell-side imbalances that were never fully absorbed. When UFO supply aligns with a legacy gap, it creates stacked resistance—multiple independent reasons for selling pressure to emerge. This does not imply reversal. It implies friction. Lower Structure: A Fresh Gap and Structural Reassignment New weekly gap: 5.791 → 5.275 Fresh gaps are fundamentally different from legacy gaps. They reflect current urgency, not historical imbalance. As long as price remains above them, they often function as support references. Adding to this dynamic is a visible level: ~5.500 resistance turned support The market gapped above a well-defined resistance level, converting it into structural support. Its alignment with the fresh gap strengthens the probability of responsive buying on pullbacks. The Sandwich Zone: Where Price Is Trapped Between Forces Defined range: 6.154 → 5.791 This is the core of the current regime. On a weekly chart, the zone appears compact. On intraday charts, it can translate into large, tradeable rotations. Price is effectively sandwiched: Above: legacy gap + UFO supply Below: fresh gap + newly formed support Such environments are rarely directional at first. They are exploratory, characterized by back-and-forth movement as the market tests which side is willing to commit. Why Sandwich Regimes Matter Sandwich regimes are often misunderstood. Traders tend to approach them with directional bias, when they are better treated as auction environments. Key characteristics: Increased two-sided trade False breakouts near boundaries Strong reactions at structural edges Delayed resolution These are not conditions for impatience. Illustrative Trading Applications (Case Study Framing Only) The following are illustrative frameworks, not recommendations: Range interaction awareness: Structural boundaries become reference points rather than targets. Gap behavior observation: Gaps can act as support, resistance, or eventually fill—but none are guaranteed. Acceptance vs. rejection logic: A move beyond a level matters less than whether price stays there. Top-down context helps avoid overreacting to short-term volatility. Contract Context: Standard vs. Micro Exposure Understanding contract structure is essential during volatility expansion. o Natural Gas futures (NG) Full-size exposure Larger tick and dollar volatility Best suited for participants comfortable with rapid P&L swings o Micro Natural Gas futures (MNG) Reduced notional size Allows more precise risk calibration Particularly useful in wide, rotating ranges During crash-up aftermaths, exposure control often matters more than direction. Contract Specs & Margin Snapshot This section provides context only on contract structure and risk characteristics. Specifications and margin requirements are subject to change and may vary by broker. o Standard Natural Gas Futures (NG) Tick: 0.001 = $10 per tick Initial margin (approx.): ~$7,250 per contract o Micro Natural Gas Futures (MNG) Tick: 0.001 = $1.00 per tick Initial margin (approx.): ~$725 per contract Risk Management: The Hidden Cost of Crash-Ups Crash-ups can distort risk perception: Expanded ranges punish static position sizing Assuming gaps must fill increases exposure asymmetry Sandwich regimes magnify whipsaw risk Effective risk management in these environments often involves: Smaller size Wider but predefined exits Willingness to stay flat when structure is unclear From Repricing to Negotiation Crash-ups are about urgency. What follows is about agreement. Once the initial shock is absorbed, markets often enter a phase where: Old structure reasserts itself New structure is tested Direction becomes secondary to acceptance In this case, price is no longer accelerating—it is negotiating, caught between unresolved history above and freshly created support below. That negotiation phase is where patience, context, and structure tend to matter most. Data Consideration When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:NG1!Education
by traddictiv
2
Bullish Continuation Above Structure, ATH Still the MagnetOn the H1 chart, Gold remains in a clean bullish continuation structure following a strong impulsive expansion. Price has successfully broken above prior resistance and accepted above it, confirming a bullish market shift rather than a fake breakout. The former resistance zone around 4,860–4,880 has now flipped into a well-defined support zone, which is exactly what we want to see in a healthy uptrend. The pullback currently projected on the chart is corrective in nature, not distributive. As long as price holds above the support zone (~4,870), the bullish structure remains valid. Deeper retracements into the support premium zone (~4,760–4,780) would still be structurally acceptable and offer higher-quality demand reactions, especially with the EMA rising underneath price a sign that momentum is still aligned to the upside. From a price-action perspective, the market is likely to range briefly or form higher lows, then continue stair-stepping upward. Liquidity is clearly resting above recent highs, making the 5,000 psychological level / new ATH zone the natural upside magnet. Continuation toward that level favors patience over chasing, waiting for pullbacks into structure rather than buying extension candles. Invalidation: Only a clean loss and acceptance below the support premium zone would weaken this bullish thesis and open the door for a deeper move toward the lower gap. Gold is trending, not topping. As long as price respects flipped support, this remains a buy the dip continuation environment, with ATH as the dominant objective, not the ceiling .
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HENRY_TraderGold
2
ATH Under Pressure: Continuation or Distribution?Gold is currently trading at a critical inflection point near the All-Time High (ATH) after completing a strong impulsive rally from the lower accumulation zone. The bullish leg was clean and well structured, driven by sustained higher highs and higher lows, confirming strong buyer control throughout the advance. However, upon reaching the ATH region, price has begun to stall and reject, signaling that supply is actively responding at this premium area. Structurally, the market is now compressed between two key forces. On the downside, the upper demand zone around 4,880–4,900 has already proven its importance, acting as a reaction level where buyers previously stepped in aggressively. On the upside, the ATH resistance band is capping price and preventing immediate continuation. This creates a classic decision zone, where Gold must either absorb supply and break higher, or fail and rotate lower. From a bullish continuation perspective, a clean breakout and acceptance above the ATH zone would confirm that buyers remain in full control. In that scenario, the projected expansion toward the 5,100 target becomes technically valid, following range-expansion and momentum continuation logic. This would imply that the recent pause is merely consolidation before another markup phase. Conversely, if price breaks decisively below the upper demand zone, the structure starts to resemble a potential Head & Shoulders distribution, as highlighted on the chart. A confirmed breakdown would likely trigger a deeper corrective move toward the lower demand zone around 4,730–4,760, where the broader bullish structure would be tested. As long as this lower demand holds, the higher-timeframe uptrend remains intact, but momentum would clearly shift from expansion to correction. Key takeaway: Gold is not weak, but it is no longer in free-flow markup. This is a high-stakes area where confirmation matters more than prediction. Either the ATH breaks and opens the door to 5,100, or failure here leads to a controlled but meaningful pullback. Traders should stay patient and let price confirm direction before committing risk.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BlackGoldMarket
Pullback Into Demand After ATH, Trend Still ConstructiveOn the H1 timeframe, Gold remains in a strong bullish context despite the recent pullback. The market previously delivered a clean impulsive expansion, breaking structure and printing a new ATH, which confirms higher-timeframe bullish control. The current retracement should be read as profit-taking and liquidity rebalancing, not a trend reversal. Price is now reacting inside the key demand zone around 4,760–4,780, which aligns with the prior breakout base and sits well above the EMA 98 a classic bullish pullback into value. The sharp rejection wick into this zone shows buyers are still active, absorbing sell pressure. As long as price continues to hold above this demand, the structure remains intact and the move is best classified as continuation consolidation. From a price action perspective, the ideal scenario is sideways-to-higher rotation above demand, followed by a renewed push toward the ATH at ~4,888, and if momentum expands again, continuation toward 4,900–4,920 becomes technically reasonable. The projected green path on the chart reflects this expectation: higher low formation → reclaim momentum → breakout attempt. Invalidation is clear and clean: a decisive H1 close below the demand zone would signal acceptance back into the previous range and open a deeper pullback toward the gap / demand premium below. Until that happens, bias remains bullish with patience, not chase. trend is still up, pullback is constructive, and this zone is where continuation setups are built not where fear should dominate.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by XauMasterNetwork
5
GOLD just printed a New ATH — now comes the part that traps Everyone wants to “call the top” the moment Gold tags a fresh ATH. But tops aren’t predicted — they’re confirmed. This chart is plausible, not “provable.” The only thing that will validate the next leg is how price behaves on the reclaim / retest of the breakout (ATH supply) and the next support shelves below. Right now, the story is simple: we just saw an explosive expansion into ~4,961–4,962 (New ATH), followed by immediate hesitation. That’s normal after a liquidity grab / momentum climax price often rotates lower to rebalance, refill inefficiencies, and test whether buyers are still willing to defend the breakout. If bulls can reclaim and hold the ATH area, the trend resumes. If not, the market will likely bleed down through the nearest magnets step-by-step. Trade Plan (Confirmation > Prediction) ✅ Bullish continuation (only if market confirms) Trigger: Reclaim and hold above the ATH zone ~4,961–4,962 (ideally with a strong close and no immediate rejection). Entry idea: Buy the reclaim OR buy a pullback that holds above ~4,940 after reclaim. Targets: T1: 4,962 (ATH retest / breakout hold) T2: Extension toward the next “blue-sky” leg (trail stops as ATH expands) Invalidation: A clean failure back below ~4,940 after reclaim. ⚠️ Pullback / correction (base-case after ATH until proven otherwise) If price fails to reclaim ATH and keeps closing weak, expect a grind lower into the nearest horizontal magnets: Downside levels to watch (step-by-step): 4,917 (first major shelf) 4,880 (next support) 4,838 (deeper rebalance) 4,775 (larger corrective target) Bear trigger: Acceptance below 4,917 (clean closes + failed bounce attempts). Execution: Sell breakdowns / failed retests, take profit into the next shelf (don’t hold shorts blindly into support). Macro backdrop Gold’s ATH behavior is consistent with a market pricing: Rate-cut expectations / softer policy path (helps gold when real yields cool) USD swings (a firmer USD can pressure gold short-term even in a bull trend) Geopolitical risk & headline volatility (war/politics = spikes + fast mean reversion) Risk-off bids + central bank demand narrative (keeps dips bought, until it doesn’t) Translation: macro can fuel the move, but price must confirm it at the reclaim test.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mathew_TraderGold