GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 01 - Dec 05]This week, international OANDA:XAUUSD prices rose from 4,040 USD/oz to 4,226 USD/oz and closed at 4,219 USD/oz.
Gold prices continued to rise this week because the market is “betting” that the FED will cut interest rates this coming December. In addition, gold demand surged in China as inventories at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) fell to their lowest level in a decade.
In reality, the slowdown in private-sector job growth and limited data from the U.S. government indicate weak economic activity and subdued inflation. This will continue to fuel expectations of a FED rate cut.
Next week, the market will receive several important data releases. On Monday, attention will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November, followed by the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, along with ADP private-sector employment data for October, which will be monitored more closely than usual due to the absence of NFP data. On Thursday, the U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, core PCE, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for December.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, the gold price has broken through the Downtrend line and is moving towards the next resistance zone around 4245. If it breaks this level, the gold price will approach the 4370-4380 zone. If it fails to break the 4245 barrier, the gold price will likely move sideways within the 4045-4245 range.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4276 - 4274⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4280
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4178 - 4180⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4174
Commodities
XAUUSD Sell Opportunity at ResistanceFOREXCOM:XAUUSD is now pushing into a key resistance zone, an area that has acted as a strong barrier in the past and triggered notable sell-offs. This level also aligns with a previous supply zone, where sellers once stepped in aggressively, making it a prime spot for anyone looking for potential short opportunities. With its historical importance, the way price reacts here could shape the next major move.
If bearish signals appear such as rejection wicks, bearish candlestick patterns or signs of weakening buying pressure, I expect price to drop toward the 4,230 level. However, if price breaks cleanly above this resistance, the bearish outlook may no longer hold and it can open the door for further upside momentum. This is a crucial zone where price action is likely to reveal a clearer direction.
This is just my personal view on support and resistance zones, not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
Good luck out there!
Silver is in the Bullish directionHello Traders
In This Chart XAGUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XAGUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XAGUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XAGUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
XAGUSD: Bullish Wave 5 Setting a Path Toward 56.000?Hey Realistic Traders!
"Silver Riding Gold’s Momentum, New ATH in the horizon?"
Let’s dive into the technical analysis to answer the question and see what the chart is really telling us.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, OANDA:XAGUSD has once again rebounded around the EMA200, with repeated bounces reinforcing the strength of its broader bullish trend. During Wave 4, Silver consolidated within a falling wedge pattern, a corrective formation that typically appears as downside momentum weakens within a larger uptrend. A breakout from this pattern signals renewed bullish pressure and often marks the beginning of Wave 5 in Elliott Wave theory.
Following the breakout, price action supports the case for a developing impulsive Wave 5. The bullish Marubozu candlestick indicates stronger buying interest, while the MACD golden cross adds confirmation to the bullish bias. Together, these signals strengthen the view that momentum is shifting back in favor of the bulls.
Based on Fibonacci projections, Wave 5 may extend toward the 1.0 Fibonacci ratio, aligning with the second upside target near 56.000. Before reaching that level, price may encounter the historical resistance zone around the first target at 54.082, where a temporary pullback could occur.
This bullish wave count remains valid as long as price stays above 49.216. A move below this level would invalidate the potential formation of Wave 5 and shift the outlook back to neutral.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Silver
GOLD (XAUUSD): Road to ATH
As I predicted earlier, Gold successfully bounced to 4215.
The market closed, testing a key daily resistance.
Next week, I suggest looking for its breakout to buy.
Your confirmation will be a daily candle close above 4245.
With a high probability, the market will rise to a resistance
based on a current ATH.
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Unlock Hidden Trading Edges: Master Support & Resistance Levels Master Support & Resistance Levels – The Most Powerful Tool in Technical Analysis 📈🔥
Support and Resistance (S&R) are the foundation of price action.
Support = where price tends to stop falling (buyers step in) 🛡️
Resistance = where price tends to stop rising (sellers take control) ⚔️
These levels are not always exact, but when used correctly they give you high-probability entries and exits in Forex, Crypto, and Stocks.
How to Find Strong S&R Levels:
1-Look left → Previous swing highs & lows
The more times price has touched and bounced, the stronger the level becomes.
2-Round numbers & psychological levels
Examples: $50,000 BTC, 1.2000 EUR/USD, $200 AAPL – traders love these!
3-Use TradingView tools
Horizontal Line
Fibonacci Retracement (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%)
Volume Profile (High-volume nodes often act as S&R)
2Role Reversal – The Magic Trick ✨
Broken resistance → becomes new support
Broken support → becomes new resistance
This is where the big moves start!
Real Examples Right Now:
Bitcoin → $100,000 break support → now strong resistance
Pro Tips:
Always check multiple timeframes (Daily + 4H give the strongest levels)
Combine with RSI or volume for confirmation
Place stop-loss just below support / above resistance
When a level breaks with high volume → jump on the breakout!
Start drawing your S&R levels today and watch your win rate improve instantly.
Which market are you trading right now? Drop your favorite S&R level in the comments! 👇
GOLD MONTHLY CHART LONG TERM/RANGE ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
We’ve just released our new Monthly Chart idea, which we’ll now be tracking following the completion of our previous long term monthly chart idea. It’s time to shift focus to the next big setup.
Currently, price is trading above the channel midline, and we’ve also seen a candle body close above 4000 for November month opening a long range gap to 4436 AXIS.
EMA5 cross and lock would further confirm this but its lagging on the longer time frame and therefore not enough time to action if waiting for ema5 confirmation. A candle body close is suffice for us to use to track the levels on this timeframe when EMA5 lags behind.
While the candle body close above 4000 confirms the bullish long term structure, we’re also mindful of the potential for a short term retracement, particularly around the EMA5 detachment zone (highlighted with a circle on the chart). This would offer a healthy dip opportunity, aligning perfectly with our strategy to buy into weakness on the way up.
For the bigger structure to remain intact, we’ll be looking for 4000 to continue holding as key primary structural support. As long as that level is respected, the long term gap toward 4436 remains firmly in play. 3532 remains our secondary structural support, also our swing range inline with the channel half line, providing a long term pivotal structural level of support.
This is a higher timeframe idea that we’ll be building on as structure continues to unfold.
We will continue to use all support structures, across all our multi time frame chart ideas to buy dips also keeping in mind our long term gaps above. Short term we may look bearish but looking at the monthly chart allows us to see the bigger picture and the overall long term Bullish trend.
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD: Channel Push Points to $4,220 as Next TargetHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
Gold remains in a broader bullish structure, but the recent price action is developing inside a well-defined ascending channel, where price is currently moving from the lower boundary toward the upper one. After a sharp correction, XAUUSD found strong support at the $4,040 level, which aligns with the bottom of the channel and produced a fake breakout, signaling lack of bearish continuation.
Currently, price has started a new upward swing, respecting both the channel structure and the mid-line trend dynamics. However, despite the recovery, XAUUSD is still trading below the major $4,220 resistance, which previously acted as a strong reaction zone and remains the key obstacle for buyers.
My Scenario & Strategy
My scenario is bullish, as long as price stays above the support zone around $4,040 and maintains structure inside the ascending channel. I expect Gold to continue climbing toward the $4,220 resistance, where the upper channel boundary also converges, forming a strong confluence area.
Therefore, a clean breakout above $4,220 would open the way for higher targets and continuation of the broader trend. However, if price reaches this zone and shows strong rejection or weakness, we may see a pullback into the channel — but the bullish structure remains intact as long as the lower boundary holds. For now, the market supports a long bias, with the key objective being a retest of the $4,220 resistance zone, which is the next major level buyers are aiming for.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
SILVER Will Move Higher! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for SILVER.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,642.3.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,175.7 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Gold next week Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders🔥 GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT — BY PROJECTSYNDICATE
🏆 Swing High / Swing low:
$4,350 → ~$3,930 — clean rejection from the $4,350 bear-liquidity pocket, weekly close back inside prior range and below $4.1k.
📈 Trend:
Structural uptrend still intact above ~$3,900, but near-term momentum has flipped distributive: rallies into $4,250–$4,350 look like supply, not fresh markup. Upside is seen as asymmetric to the downside from overhead resistance.
🛡 Supports:
• $4,060–$4,020: first demand / reaction band below the close.
• $4,000–$3,960: psychological shelf; first downside target on failed rallies.
• $3,940–$3,930: bullish block liquidity — key structural demand; loss of this area risks a deeper de-leveraging leg.
🚧 Resistances:
• $4,200–$4,230: immediate supply from the weekly close; first “sell-the-rip” area.
• $4,250–$4,280: primary bearish liquidity / core short zone.
• $4,300–$4,350: exhaustion band; $4,350 = recent swing high / bear block.
• Stretch: $4,380 prior spike; only expected on an overshoot / stop run.
🧭 Bias Next Week:
Fade strength rather than chase upside.
Base idea: short rips into $4,220–$4,320, scale adds toward $4,350, looking for reversal back into $4,060 → $4,000–$3,960.
• A weekly close above $4,380 would invalidate the short-the-rip bias and open room toward the higher Street targets.
________________________________________
🔝 Key Resistance Zones Short-Side Focus
• $4,200–$4,230: first supply from the weekly close; good area for initial probe shorts.
• $4,250–$4,280: primary bearish liquidity / main take-profit area for trapped late longs.
• $4,300–$4,350: extension / exhaustion band; includes the $4,350 swing high and core “blow-off” liquidity pocket.
• $4,380: prior spike high / stretched stop-run; only expect in a squeeze.
________________________________________
🛡 Support Zones Downside Objectives / Where Shorts Start Covering
• $4,060–$4,020: first reaction band below; scale out partial profits here.
• $4,000–$3,960: key psychological shelf; second profit zone and likely area of responsive dip-buyers.
• $3,940–$3,930: bullish block liquidity; final target for aggressive shorts, and the spot where higher-timeframe bulls are expected to defend. A sustained break below would be a regime change.
________________________________________
⚖️ Base Case Scenario
• Rallies into $4,220–$4,320 encounter selling as late longs de-risk and fresh shorts engage.
• Price fails to sustain above $4,300–$4,350, leaving a wick / rejection on the higher timeframes.
• From there, rotation lower toward $4,060, then $4,000–$3,960 as the primary downside objective.
• Only if the $3,960–$3,930 block cracks cleanly do we start talking about a deeper flush into $3,880–$3,850 as a secondary scenario.
________________________________________
🚀 Breakout / Invalidation Trigger
• Bearish framework invalidation:
o A strong daily/weekly acceptance > $4,380 would suggest bears are trapped and open the door toward $4,450+, in line with the newly raised Street forecasts.
o In that case, shift from short-the-rip to neutral / buy shallow pullbacks until a new top structure forms.
________________________________________
💡 Market Drivers to Watch This Week
• Fed communication and front-end real yields – any hawkish surprise or delay in cuts could extend the correction; dovish surprise risks another squeeze.
• USD index swings around data / politics – sharp dollar bounces favour your short bias from resistance.
• Central-bank headlines (reserve diversification, sanction risk) – supportive in the background but less impactful intraday; use them as context, not trade triggers.
• Geopolitical flare-ups – can create squeezes into your sell zones; be ready for fast spikes into $4,300–$4,350 rather than waiting for slow grinds.
________________________________________
🔓 Bull / Bear Trigger Lines
• Structural bull line:
• Above $3,930–$4,000: long-term bull structure intact; even if you’re tactically shorting rips, treat deep flushes into this band with respect — this is where bigger players are likely accumulating.
• Bear expansion line:
• Below $3,930: opens scope for a faster liquidation wave toward $3,880–$3,850; would indicate that the 2025 blow-off is transitioning toward a broader consolidation or mean-reversion phase.
________________________________________
🧭 Strategy
Use overhead resistance as a place to sell strength, not initiate fresh longs. Expect limited upside and a reversal from liquidity above the market.
1️⃣ Primary Short Setup – Fade the Rips
• Entry zones:
o First scale: $4,220–$4,250
o Add / build: $4,250–$4,280 (primary bear-liquidity block)
o Final add / exhaustion: $4,300–$4,350 (only if tape shows blow-off / stop-run behaviour).
• Stops / invalidation:
o Tactical: hard stop above $4,380.
o More conservative traders can run a soft line at $4,350 and hard stop just beyond $4,380.
• Targets:
o TP1: $4,060–$4,020
o TP2: $4,000–$3,960
o Stretch TP3 (runner): $3,940–$3,930 bullish block.
________________________________________
🌍 Macro Tailwinds
• • Policy / Real Yields
Markets are leaning into lower US real rates and more cuts through 2026, with talk of “fiscal dominance” and persistent deficits. This keeps the medium-term backdrop supportive for gold even after the parabolic run.
• • FX / USD Dynamics
A softer, more volatile dollar driven by rate-cut expectations and concerns over US fiscal sustainability continues to underpin gold on dips, even if short-term dollar squeezes can trigger sharp pullbacks.
• • Flows: Central Banks Still the Backbone
Central banks remain heavy net buyers, with H1 and Q3 data showing robust additions and EM reserve managers diversifying away from sanction-risk USD assets. Recent commentary links record highs to this central-bank bid plus tight physical markets.
• • Flows: ETF & Investor Participation
After several years of outflows, ETF demand has turned back to net inflows, adding to central-bank buying and reinforcing the idea of a higher structural floor in the ~$3.9k area even after corrections.
• • Geopolitics & Safe-Haven Premium
Gold’s 2025 surge is still anchored in elevated geopolitical risk (Russia–NATO tensions, US–China frictions, tariff headlines), plus anxiety about frozen reserves and sanctions. This keeps the safety bid sticky even when positioning looks crowded.
• ________________________________________
USOIL H1 | Bearish Reversal Off key ResistanceMomentum: Bearish
The price is rising towards the sell entry, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Sell entry: 59.31
Pullback resistance
61.8% Fibonacci projection
Stop loss: 60.03
Pullback resistance
145% Fibonacci extension
Take profit: 58.16
Pullback support
High Risk Investment Warning
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Gold or Silver?Right now: SILVER!
I know, I know! Crazy schitt! Don't look at me!
The chart’s telling the story — Silver hasn’t even really started its move yet. Don’t blame me, I’m just reading the data.
Silver is up 87% year-over-year and outperforming gold by 11%, which is still on the low end historically.
That suggests Silver either has room to run from here, or it’s simply the safer relative play versus gold on a risk-adjusted basis.
If you’ve got space in your portfolio, it’s a reasonable addition.
If it hits nose-bleed levels, we reassess.
THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥
Let’s keep climbing.
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
XAUUSD continues to rise after the Adam & Eve patternOANDA:XAUUSD is really interesting right now. The price seems likely to rise further after the formation of the Adam & Eve pattern. With such an easy-to-remember name, the Adam & Eve pattern is one of the most memorable. I will explain below the reasons and how to recognize it easily.
The Adam pattern is characterized by a sharp drop, followed by a quick recovery, forming a "V" on the chart. High, sharp, and aggressive! One could say it's more "masculine."
On the other hand, the Eve pattern develops more slowly. The price becomes more rounded, forming a wider and smoother base before rising again, creating a shape similar to the letter "U." Softer, more curved, and more "feminine."
Combining these two elements gives us the Adam & Eve pattern, which often signals a potential trend reversal. Especially when accompanied by fundamental analysis or other strong technical indicators.
This pattern will stick in your mind when you connect its shapes to the male and female aspects. A pattern that is truly hard to forget.
Weekly USOIL Trend SummaryOverall, USOIL oscillated at a low level with a slight upward trend during the period from November 24 to November 28, 2025. Despite minor fluctuations of gains and losses throughout the week, it hovered around $59 per barrel and failed to break free from the consecutive monthly decline trend that began this month. The specific trend is detailed in segments as follows:
1.Modest Gain at Week's Start with Synchronous Weakening Price Spread (November 24)
USOIL kicked off the week with a slight upturn. It closed at $58.89 per barrel that day, rising $0.91 or 1.57% compared with the previous week's closing price of $57.98 per barrel.
2.Oscillating Consolidation in Mid-Week, with Gains Constrained by Oversupply Expectations (November 25 - 26)
On November 25, oil prices traded sideways, hovering around $58.77 per barrel with a slight drop of approximately 0.91%.
On November 26, the market rebounded, and the growth rate of the relevant oil and gas index expanded to 0.87%. Oil prices followed suit with an upward movement. However, they failed to break through the earlier oscillating range overall. Meanwhile, potential incremental pressure on the supply side left the oil price rally lacking strong momentum.
3.Minor Fluctuations at Week's End Awaiting Policy Signals (November 27 - 28)
On November 27, oil prices pulled back slightly, and the corresponding oil and gas index edged down by 0.08%. After encountering resistance near $59 per barrel, oil prices retreated moderately. Market sentiment turned increasingly cautious as investors focused on the OPEC+ production policy meeting scheduled for Sunday.
On November 28, oil prices inched up again, and the oil and gas index rose by 0.67%, hitting a weekly closing high of 309.33 points.
Overall, although USOIL recorded a slight increase this week, it remained trapped in a low - range. Moreover, this month marks its fourth consecutive monthly decline, the longest losing streak since 2023. The main bearish factors weighing on oil prices include the expected lifting of sanctions on Russian oil driven by progress in the Ukraine peace talks and weak demand caused by the unexpected growth in U.S. crude oil inventories. Conversely, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have provided some support for oil prices. Going forward, the production decisions of OPEC+ and changes in the geopolitical landscape will be the key factors determining the future trend of oil prices.
Gold: entering from current levels — risk or opportunity?After Friday’s new high in silver, I assumed a similar correction-ending structure in gold as well.
But here’s the issue: If we keep waiting for “one more dip”, we might miss a very strong trend entirely.
Today I want to highlight the risks of entering from current levels (yes, this is exactly what I plan to do on Monday) — and what you must consider if the correction continues.
🟡 Three possible correction scenarios
All of them are shown on the chart:
But there is one key pattern that allows us to:
- stay in the trade if the correction is already finished
- and exit early if the market actually turns down
🔍 Here’s the logic:
1️⃣ If the price holds above the pitchfork median line. We can no longer break back inside — that’s the first sign of a coming correction.
In this case, the stop is anchored to the last low: 4147.81.
2️⃣ If the correction begins right from the market open. We look at the 4132.81 overlap level.https://www.tradingview.com/x/0dQxO50B/
Between these two levels, we choose the stricter one — 4132.81.
🎯 Targets: 127.2% and 161.8% of the triangle structure.
This approach lets us:
• fully account for the risk of continued correction
• not miss the trend if the correction is already over
• and stay aligned with the scenario we just saw in silver
Smart risk → better opportunities. Stay sharp. ✨
DVN | Strong Oil & Nat Gas Producer About to Pop | LONGDevon Energy Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties. It develops and operates Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, Heavy Oil, Barnett Shale, STACK, and Rockies Oil. The company was founded by J. Larry Nichols and John W. Nichols in 1971 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK.
SILVER: Forecast & Trading Plan
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the SILVER pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
USOIL : Don't be fooledHello friends
Well, you see that we have a descending channel that has hit the ceiling twice and the ceiling three times.
Well, in the third encounter with the bottom or support, you see that the buyers provided good support for the price and pushed it up and broke our medium-term ceiling. Now, if the breakdown is confirmed, the price will go to the ceiling of the channel and from there, a price correction can be expected.
The specified range is very important for a sell trade. Why?
Because there are many orders here, if the price reaches this area, it will inevitably correct. And there is another reason that we have, and the most important reason is that our trend is down and we should not open a trade against the trend.
This analysis is technically reviewed and is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Avoid emotional behavior and observe capital management.
*Trade safely with us*
ANFIBO XAUUSD – Fibonacci Breakout and Continuation Plan
Hi guys, Anfibo’s here!
XAUUSD Weekly Trading Plan
Overall Picture
On the 4H chart, gold has broken out of the previous descending trendline and is now trending inside a rising bullish channel. Price is pushing toward the upper boundary of this channel, and the next key reaction zone is where:
The new uptrend channel resistance
The old descending trendline (now potential resistance)
And the Fibonacci extension cluster
all line up around the 4240s.
This is where I expect the market to show its hand:
Either give a short-term corrective pullback,
Or consolidate and build energy for a continuation rally toward the higher Fibonacci extensions (2.618 around the 4370–4380 zone).
Macro Context – Why USD Still Matters
From a macro perspective, the U.S. Government and Treasury have a direct impact on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) through:
Fiscal policy (budgets, new laws, spending programs)
Announcements from the administration
Treasury funding needs and issuance
At the same time, U.S. GDP data is a core driver of dollar sentiment:
Stronger‐than‐expected GDP → supports DXY → often weighs on gold.
Weaker GDP or slowdown signals → pressures DXY → tends to support gold.
So while the chart is clearly giving us a bullish technical structure, the strength or weakness of upcoming U.S. data will strongly influence whether gold can sustain a breakout beyond these Fibonacci levels or get capped and pull back deeper.
Trading Plan – Using Fibonacci and Structure
For next week, I’m working with one tactical short setup at resistance and one continuation buy setup on the dip.
>>> Scenario #1 – Short-Term SELL at Fibonacci Resistance
If price extends into the confluence zone around 4240+ and shows rejection, I’ll treat it as a counter-trend sell opportunity:
Sell entry: 4241 – 4243
Stop loss: 4248
Take profit levels:4210-4194-4165-4120
Idea: fade the first touch into the Fibonacci + trendline resistance box, targeting a corrective leg back towards mid-channel support and potentially the lower part of the structure around 4120 if sellers step in aggressively.
>>> Scenario #2 – BUY the Continuation from 4194 Support
If the market respects the breakout and only offers a shallow pullback, I’ll look to join the trend from the key support / Fibonacci area:
Buy entry: around 4194
Stop loss: 4185
Take profit levels:
TP1: 4210
TP2: 4235
TP3: higher extension zone toward the 2.618 area (4370+ if momentum continues)
Idea: use 4194 as a continuation buy zone, where broken resistance + Fib support align, aiming to ride the next impulsive leg higher inside the ascending channel.
Key Technical Levels for the Week
Resistance / Sell zone: 4241 – 4243
Intermediate resistance: 4235, then higher at the Fib extension band near 4370–4380
Support / Buy zone: 4194
Deeper supports: 4165 and 4120 (bottom of corrective structure)
As long as price holds above the 4165–4120 block on a closing basis, the medium-term bias remains bullish.
Risk Management
Treat the sell setup as tactical / short-term against higher timeframe bullish structure.
Always wait for clear confirmation (rejection wick, slowdown, or shift in 4H / 1H structure) at 4240s before entering shorts.
Keep Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 on both scenarios; avoid forcing trades in the middle of the range.
Do not hold opposing positions simultaneously – follow the scenario the market confirms first.
If strong fundamentals (e.g., very strong GDP, hawkish fiscal tone) push DXY sharply higher or lower, be ready to reassess the bias instead of clinging to the plan.
Conclusion
Gold has flipped from a descending structure to a rising channel, and Fibonacci confluences are giving us clear, objective levels to work with next week. Whether price reacts with a short-term pullback from 4240s or respects 4194 as continuation support, we already know:
Where to sell tactically,
Where to buy with the trend,
And how our risk is defined.
LET THE LEVELS GUIDE YOU, TRADE WITH CONFIDENCE, AND STAY DISCIPLINED, GUYS! 💛📈
Gold: Safe-Haven Demand Surges After Venezuela TensionsHey Traders,
In the coming week we are monitoring XAUUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 4,195 zone. Gold remains in a clear uptrend, and the current correction is guiding price back toward a major support-and-trendline confluence, where buyers have consistently defended the structure.
On the fundamental side, safe-haven flows are heating up again.
Following Trump’s announcement that a land operation against Venezuela is expected to begin soon, markets quickly shifted into risk-off mode. Geopolitical uncertainty has historically driven capital toward traditional havens — and Gold often reacts first.
If tensions continue to escalate, the 4,195 zone could become the launchpad for the next bullish extension, with sentiment strongly supporting upside.
Trade safe,
Joe
Gold 4H – Can XAUUSD reject 4245 before diving into 4140?📈 Market Context
Gold rallied as the U.S. dollar closed softer on repriced Fed rate-cut expectations, with market headline flow confirming USD finishes lower and gold rallies on renewed cuts timing debates — a setup that encourages external liquidity raiding before weekly direction is revealed. Forex Factory
4H conditions are classic for liquidity engineering: price trades near balanced mid-range flows, institutions exploit USD weakness into weekly open, and both buyer/seller pools are vulnerable to strategic sweeping before expansion.
Expect volatility spikes around U.S. session opens and PMI headline catalysts.
🔎 Technical Analysis (4H / SMC View)
🟢 Buy Zone: 4140–4138
SL: 4130
TP targets: 4175 → 4200 → 4220 → 4250 → 4280+
Rationale:
• Discount zone beneath 4H liquidity shelf
• Demand mitigation + accumulation narrative after sweep
🔴 Sell Zone: 4245–4247
SL: 4255
TP targets: 4220 → 4200 → 4175 → 4150 → 4140
Rationale:
• Premium supply above equal-high liquidity
• 4H imbalance magnet below waiting to be filled
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
• Wait for M15 ChoCH / BOS confirmation before entries — avoid blind positioning.
• Expect wider spreads and wick manipulation on USD headline releases.
• Avoid trading 10–20 minutes before high-impact USD news (PMI, Fed speakers).
• Scale partials at each TP level, let runners work only after confirmation is printed.
Summary
Gold remains in 4H rangebound engineering territory where Smart Money is likely to sweep premium above 4245, deliver a correction to 4140, then seek a validated bullish reaction from discount demand on confirmed USD volatility.
Patience and confirmation first. Liquidity always wins.
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