Pullback Into Demand After ATH, Trend Still ConstructiveOn the H1 timeframe, Gold remains in a strong bullish context despite the recent pullback. The market previously delivered a clean impulsive expansion, breaking structure and printing a new ATH, which confirms higher-timeframe bullish control. The current retracement should be read as profit-taking and liquidity rebalancing, not a trend reversal. Price is now reacting inside the key demand zone around 4,760–4,780, which aligns with the prior breakout base and sits well above the EMA 98 a classic bullish pullback into value. The sharp rejection wick into this zone shows buyers are still active, absorbing sell pressure. As long as price continues to hold above this demand, the structure remains intact and the move is best classified as continuation consolidation. From a price action perspective, the ideal scenario is sideways-to-higher rotation above demand, followed by a renewed push toward the ATH at ~4,888, and if momentum expands again, continuation toward 4,900–4,920 becomes technically reasonable. The projected green path on the chart reflects this expectation: higher low formation → reclaim momentum → breakout attempt. Invalidation is clear and clean: a decisive H1 close below the demand zone would signal acceptance back into the previous range and open a deeper pullback toward the gap / demand premium below. Until that happens, bias remains bullish with patience, not chase.
trend is still up, pullback is constructive, and this zone is where continuation setups are built not where fear should dominate.
Commodities
GOLD just printed a New ATH — now comes the part that traps Everyone wants to “call the top” the moment Gold tags a fresh ATH. But tops aren’t predicted — they’re confirmed. This chart is plausible, not “provable.” The only thing that will validate the next leg is how price behaves on the reclaim / retest of the breakout (ATH supply) and the next support shelves below. Right now, the story is simple: we just saw an explosive expansion into ~4,961–4,962 (New ATH), followed by immediate hesitation. That’s normal after a liquidity grab / momentum climax price often rotates lower to rebalance, refill inefficiencies, and test whether buyers are still willing to defend the breakout. If bulls can reclaim and hold the ATH area, the trend resumes. If not, the market will likely bleed down through the nearest magnets step-by-step.
Trade Plan (Confirmation > Prediction)
✅ Bullish continuation (only if market confirms)
Trigger: Reclaim and hold above the ATH zone ~4,961–4,962 (ideally with a strong close and no immediate rejection).
Entry idea: Buy the reclaim OR buy a pullback that holds above ~4,940 after reclaim.
Targets:
T1: 4,962 (ATH retest / breakout hold)
T2: Extension toward the next “blue-sky” leg (trail stops as ATH expands)
Invalidation: A clean failure back below ~4,940 after reclaim.
⚠️ Pullback / correction (base-case after ATH until proven otherwise)
If price fails to reclaim ATH and keeps closing weak, expect a grind lower into the nearest horizontal magnets:
Downside levels to watch (step-by-step):
4,917 (first major shelf)
4,880 (next support)
4,838 (deeper rebalance)
4,775 (larger corrective target)
Bear trigger: Acceptance below 4,917 (clean closes + failed bounce attempts).
Execution: Sell breakdowns / failed retests, take profit into the next shelf (don’t hold shorts blindly into support).
Macro backdrop
Gold’s ATH behavior is consistent with a market pricing:
Rate-cut expectations / softer policy path (helps gold when real yields cool)
USD swings (a firmer USD can pressure gold short-term even in a bull trend)
Geopolitical risk & headline volatility (war/politics = spikes + fast mean reversion)
Risk-off bids + central bank demand narrative (keeps dips bought, until it doesn’t)
Translation: macro can fuel the move, but price must confirm it at the reclaim test.
XAUUSD 23 JAN: Market Analysis & Future DevelopmentTODAY'S LIMITED STRATEGY JAN 23
Intraday trading: Adjust
📌 SET UP 1. Timming Sell Zone
XAUUSD SELL ZONE: 5005 - 5008
💰 Take Profit(TP): 5002 - 4997
❎ Stoploss(SL): 5012
Note capital management to ensure account safety
📌 SET UP 2. Timming Buy Zone
XAUUSD BUY ZONE: 4880 - 4883
💰 Take Profit(TP): 4886 - 4891
❎ Stoploss(SL): 4876
Note capital management to ensure account safety
Current Market Analysis & Future Developments Today (Gold – XAUUSD)
- Currently, gold is maintaining a predominantly bullish structure on the H4 timeframe, following its previous strong breakout. However, the upward momentum is slowing as the price approaches key technical resistance zones, evidenced by short periods of volatility and corrections.
✅ Current Status
- The price is moving around the intermediate Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5 – 0.618), indicating that the market is in a phase of absorbing selling pressure and re-accumulating.
- Momentum remains positive but is no longer overly volatile, signaling the possibility of a technical correction before determining the next trend.
- The oscillator is in the high zone → not suitable for FOMO chasing the price.
✅Today's Scenario
- Main Scenario: Price continues to correct or move sideways, retesting the nearest support zone to accumulate more momentum. If the structure holds firm, the possibility of continuing the upward trend to higher levels remains.
- Alternative scenario: If stronger selling pressure emerges at the resistance zone, the market may retrace further to the lower support zone before forming a clear signal for the next move.
✅ Trading Strategy
- Prioritize waiting for price reactions at support/resistance zones, trading based on confirmation signals.
- Avoid haste during the market's "direction-choosing" phase.
- Manage risk strictly; do not trade emotionally.
👉 Summary: The overall trend remains upward, but in the short term, the market needs time for correction and consolidation. Those who are patient and disciplined will have a clear advantage today.
Three Indicators I Use to Read the Market: EMA – RSI – VolumeAfter years of observing different markets—from gold and forex to crypto—I’ve come to a very clear realization: price never moves randomly. Every move only truly matters when it exists within the right context. And to read that context, I don’t need a chart crowded with indicators. I keep just three familiar tools—enough to understand what state the market is in and how I should respond to it.
For me, EMA is the market’s skeleton. When price holds steadily above the EMA lines and pullbacks remain clean and controlled, I can clearly feel that a trend is being maintained—calm, orderly, and without panic. On the other hand, when price stays below EMA and rebounds are weak and short-lived, the picture becomes clear in the opposite direction. What matters most is the slope of the EMA. An upward-sloping EMA tells a very different story from one that is flat or starting to roll over. With just that, I can already tell whether the market is trending, correcting, or stuck in balance. And simply identifying the correct state of the market already determines most of the quality of any analysis that follows. In practice, EMA 34 and EMA 89 are the two levels I rely on the most—they act as familiar anchors to help me orient myself.
RSI plays a different role. It doesn’t give me structure; it gives me rhythm. When RSI stays elevated for a prolonged period, I don’t just see strong price action—I see buyer initiative and sustained conviction. When RSI starts to fade while price hasn’t dropped much yet, that’s when I sense momentum slowing down, like a breath becoming heavier. And when RSI hesitates around the neutral zone, it often coincides with moments when the market needs time—to absorb order flow, rebalance emotions, and prepare before choosing its next direction.
Volume is the final piece—and an indispensable one. Price can break highs or lows, but without volume backing it, that move is still unconvincing to me. When price expands alongside steadily rising volume, I see real participation and genuine commitment from the market. Conversely, when price travels far but volume fails to follow, it usually signals hesitation—a level that hasn’t been fully accepted yet. Volume helps me distinguish between a move with solid backing and one that’s merely technical, driven more by inertia than by belief.
Three indicators, three different perspectives—but when placed together, they form a complete picture of the market.
XAUUSD H1 Strong Bullish Continuation Buy the Dip Above 5000📝 Description:
Gold (XAUUSD) is trading in a strong bullish structure on the H1 timeframe. Price has broken and accepted above the 5,000 psychological level, confirming buyer dominance.
The market continues to print higher highs and higher lows, indicating trend continuation. Preferred strategy is buying pullbacks into previous resistance-turned-support zones. Shorts are not valid unless price breaks and closes below 4,950.
📍 Bias: Bullish
📈 Strategy: Buy the Dip
🛑 Invalidation: H1 close below 4,950
Gold Smashes Past $5,000 – Investors Rush to Safe HavenGold prices have soared to a record high above $5,000 per ounce, as global investors seek safety amid growing political and economic uncertainty.
Gold hit $5,085.50, the highest price ever recorded.
Silver also broke records, reaching $108.60 per ounce.
Analysts believe gold could climb even higher, possibly peaking near $5,500 this year.
Why Gold Is Rising
Gold gained 64% in 2025 and has already risen more than 17% in 2026. Several factors are driving this rally:
Safe-haven demand as investors worry about global stability.
U.S. monetary policy easing, making gold more attractive.
Strong central bank buying, especially from China, which has been purchasing gold for 14 straight months.
Massive inflows into gold ETFs, showing strong investor appetite.
Political Tensions Fuel the Surge
Recent decisions by U.S. President Donald Trump have shaken confidence in U.S. assets:
He backed away from tariff threats against Europe tied to Greenland.
He announced plans for a 100% tariff on Canada if it pursues a trade deal with China.
He threatened 200% tariffs on French wines and champagne to pressure France into joining his “Board of Peace” initiative.
Analysts say these moves have created a “crisis of confidence,” pushing investors toward gold as a safer alternative.
Currency Moves Add Support
The Japanese yen strengthened, pulling the U.S. dollar lower. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, further boosting demand.
Other Metals Join the Rally
Silver: up 4.57% to $107.65, after hitting $108.60.
Platinum: up 3.26% to $2,857.41.
Palladium: up 3.2% to $2,074.40.
Silver’s surge is especially notable, as it crossed the $100 mark for the first time ever, following a massive 147% rise in 2025. Tight supply and strong retail investor demand continue to fuel its momentum.
Outlook
Experts expect gold’s rally to continue, with short-term corrections likely but quickly met by strong buying. The safe-haven rush shows no signs of slowing down.
Gold Nears $5,000 – Bullish Momentum Remains IntactGold prices continue to surge strongly, moving closer to the key psychological level of $5,000 per ounce. The rally is supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and mixed movements in U.S. Treasury yields, creating a favorable environment for the precious metal.
In the global market, spot gold is currently trading around $4,985 per ounce, up nearly 1% over the past 24 hours, equivalent to a gain of more than $47, highlighting persistent and active buying interest as prices approach record highs.
On the U.S. economic front, activity appears stable but lacks strong momentum in both the manufacturing and services sectors. This backdrop reduces pressure on gold and helps sustain prices at elevated levels near the historic $5,000 mark.
Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue easing monetary policy remain a key driver of capital flows into gold, even as geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat following U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy shift on Greenland. Notably, despite signs of short-term overbought conditions, gold’s upward momentum has shown little sign of fatigue, suggesting that the bullish trend remains the most likely scenario.
Gold at Record Highs: Testing Acceptance Above Key EMAsHello everyone,
Gold is currently experiencing one of its strongest rallies in many years, repeatedly breaking historical highs and moving into price territory the market has never traded before. However, for me, the key question at this stage is not how far gold has already risen, but whether the market is truly willing to accept this new price level.
Looking at the technical picture, an important detail stands out. On the H4 chart, gold surged aggressively from around the 4,600 area straight into the 4,880–4,900 zone in a very short period of time. Price moved away from both the EMA 34 and EMA 89 much faster than usual, with consecutive bullish candles and almost no pauses in between. More importantly, there was a clear lack of consolidation zones above. This is a classic sign of a strong impulsive rally—powerful, but carrying a familiar risk: price advancing faster than the market’s ability to absorb it.
For that reason, gold slowing down after setting a new high is not surprising. As price approached the 4,880 area, rejection candles began to appear, followed by a mild pullback toward the 4,800 zone. Crucially, this correction has not damaged the broader bullish structure. EMA 34 remains intact, both EMAs continue to slope upward, and EMA 89 still sits below price as a backbone for the medium-term trend. This behavior suggests the market is “retesting” the strength of the uptrend rather than signaling a reversal.
At this stage, the EMA levels are becoming especially important. EMA 34 is acting as dynamic support for the short-term uptrend, while EMA 89 continues to represent the core support of the larger trend. A key support zone lies around 4,740–4,700, which closely aligns with EMA 34. As long as this area holds and there is no clear H4 close decisively below it, the market is likely completing a short-term consolidation before attempting to resume the uptrend. In that scenario, higher levels such as 4,900+—and even the psychological 5,000 USD/oz mark—remain firmly on the radar.
What do you think? Share your view!
Only God or Nuclear War Can Break This Weekly Gold ResistanceA Resistance That Has Stopped Gold for 20 Years
On the weekly chart, gold has respected the same rising resistance line through every major global crisis:
May 2006 – ~$723
September 2011 – ~$1,900
Now / early 2026 projection – ~$5,000–$5,200
Each time price reached this zone, the world was under extreme stress; wars, financial crises, or systemic instability. Each time, gold stalled.
This level is not random. It’s historical memory.
What Drove Each Major Rally
-2006: Middle East wars, rising geopolitical tension, early cracks in the financial system
-2011: Global Financial Crisis aftermath, QE, eurozone debt crisis, loss of trust in banks
-2020–2022: COVID, unlimited stimulus, supply-chain breakdown
-2022–Now: Russia–Ukraine war
Middle East escalation
Red Sea trade disruptions
China–Taiwan tensions
Central banks aggressively buying gold
Exploding sovereign debt
De-dollarization no longer theoretical
This rally is not about greed. It’s about protection.
I’m Calling the Top (For Now)
I’m calling this a temporary top.
Gold has gone vertical into a multi-decade weekly resistance that has never been broken cleanly. Moves like this do not continue straight up. They pause, correct, and reset.
My base case is a meaningful correction toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, around $3,800, to retest structure and flush late buyers.
Final Thought
Gold isn’t rallying because traders are bullish. It’s rallying because trust is breaking. But even fear respects structure.
This resistance has survived wars, crises, and pandemics.
If it breaks decisively, it won’t be because of technicals.
It will be because something bigger than markets forces it. Only God or something close to nuclear-level escalation does that !!
USOIL H1 | Bullish riseBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has bounced off our buy level of 60.68, which is an overlap support.
Our stop loss is set at 60.37, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 62.32, which acts as a swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
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Bullish breakout?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance, which is an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 60.27
1st Support: 58.58
1st Resistance: 65.88
Disclaimer:
The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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BRIEFING Week #4 : Look for the Dollar SignalHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Natural Gas Stock Forecast | Oil | Dollar | Silver | GoldNatural Gas Stock Forecast | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold
Catch the latest commodities trading insights! This week's market analysis includes a look at both sides of the coin for oil, gold and silver. Plus, get some helpful technical analysis and trading tips to guide your decisions.
0:00 Intro & Commodities Overview
0:38 Natural Gas AMEX:UNG
8:23 Oil NYMEX:CL1!
9:51 US Dollar (DXY)
11:55 Gold & Silver COMEX:GC1! COMEX:SI1!
19:15 Outro
Natural Gas stock Bulls PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS Support & Resistance Guide
AMEX:USO Oil Stock price Forecast
TVC:DXY US dollar Stock analysis
Gold OANDA:XAUUSD Stock price Forecast
Silver OANDA:XAGUSD stock analysis
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report, we identified 4608 as the key bias level for a bullish break, with upside targets at 4835 and 4860. These targets were achieved within the first few hours of the market opening.
As the week progressed, we shared updates based on the weekly chart, which indicated higher price objectives. These levels were also reached successfully. Throughout the week, we provided hot spot levels and red box targets, all of which were completed along the bullish path.
Overall, it was a strong week for directional accuracy. However, despite the clear bullish movement, price action was very aggressive, making it difficult to capture meaningful pullbacks for optimal trade entries.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Looking ahead, we anticipate another choppy and volatile trading week, especially as we approach the end of the month and the monthly candle close next week.
Additionally, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday is expected to increase volume and volatility. During such events, price may temporarily push above key levels, so it is essential to carefully observe price reactions, not just breakouts.
Key Resistance Levels:
Primary resistance zone: 4992–4997
This area requires a strong and decisive break to open the path toward higher targets.
Upon the break we have Defence box / major resistance: 5020–5030
Ideally, we would like to see price push into these higher resistance levels and then show a Reaction In Price (RIP). A rejection from these areas would provide high-quality trade opportunities early in the week.
Key Support Levels:
Immediate support: 4965
Bias level for a bearish break: 4970
A clean break below 4970 should be taken seriously. While red box targets have already been identified, there is potential for price to extend further downward where we have an Excalibur target now active!
With our technical indicators becoming increasingly stretched and liquidity flow approaching extreme conditions, the move toward the 5000 level must be treated with caution unless price breaks above 5000, holds above it, and establishes a strong support level (ideally around 5006).
For this week we would prefer to trade reactions in price (RIP), or scalp level-to-level rather than holding large directional positions.
RED BOXES:
Break above 4990 for 5003, 5010 and 5020 in extension of the move
Break below 4970 for 4960, 4950 and 4933 in extension of the move
As always, risk management is essential especially during high-impact news weeks. Newer traders should focus on waiting for confirmation, respecting key levels, and avoiding over-trading during volatile sessions.
Thank you for your continued support. We have been providing free, in-depth Gold analysis for many years, and your likes, comments, and follows are genuinely appreciated.
Trade safe,
KOG
XAUUSD: Gold and the Cost of ConvictionGold is trading less like a hedge and more like a narrative in motion. The current advance in spot prices reflects not just macro anxiety, but a market that is actively negotiating its own excess. After a powerful impulsive rally, price is now pressing into a region where conviction matters more than momentum.
The recent surge has carried gold into a zone that historically attracts two very different types of participants. Trend followers see continuation toward higher extensions, while risk managers see asymmetry beginning to fade. This tension is visible in the structure itself. The advance has unfolded in a clear impulsive sequence, with price now hovering near the upper Fibonacci retracement band where prior cycles have either accelerated sharply or stalled into complex consolidations.
The primary scenario assumes gold is in the latter stages of an impulsive move, with one more upward resolution still possible. In this path, price holds above the mid retracement zone and consolidates through time rather than price. Such behavior would suggest strength beneath the surface, allowing the market to reset momentum before attempting a final push toward the upper extension area. A clean break and acceptance above this region would reinforce the idea that gold is repricing structurally higher rather than merely reacting to short term catalysts.
A second scenario is more nuanced and arguably more consistent with late cycle behavior. Here, gold remains capped beneath resistance and begins tracing a choppy sequence of higher lows and lower highs. This would not be a collapse, but a digestion phase. The market would be signaling that it needs participation to catch up with price. In this case, volatility compresses, sentiment cools, and the eventual resolution becomes more meaningful. Directionally, this scenario keeps the broader bullish structure intact while delaying immediate upside.
The third scenario is the one fewer participants are emotionally prepared for, despite its technical validity. A failure to hold above the key retracement zone would open the door to a deeper corrective move toward the prior demand area. Such a decline would look dramatic on a lower time frame but would remain corrective within the broader trend. Importantly, this path would reset momentum indicators that are currently stretched and rebuild the foundation for a more sustainable advance later in the year. Historically, gold has often required this type of shakeout before resuming its primary trend.
Momentum indicators reinforce the idea that the market is at an inflection point rather than a conclusion. Relative strength remains elevated, signaling strong underlying demand, but it also warns that upside from here is earned rather than given. Price is no longer cheap in emotional terms, even if it remains compelling in strategic ones.
What makes this moment distinctive is not the level of gold, but the clarity of the decision ahead. The market is no longer reacting. It is choosing. Whether that choice resolves higher through continuation, sideways through consolidation, or lower through correction will shape positioning well beyond the next few weeks.
For now, gold is best understood not as a safe haven or a speculative asset, but as a market in conversation with itself. The lines on the chart are not predictions. They are propositions. The coming sessions will determine which argument carries the most weight.
Bullish continuation?Gold has bounced off the support level, which is a pullback support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4,962.45
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 4,886.30
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 5,066.23
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level at the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Falling towards key support?COPPER is falling towards the support level, which acts as a pullback support aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5.8119
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5.7173
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5.9634
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.






















