Gold ATH Is Not Random – It’s a War to Defend the USDBombs and bullets are just smoke screens.
The real war is about who still controls the world’s money.
And that’s why Trump appears at the right time.
This is not a shooting war.
It’s a war to protect the US dollar.
If you look at US actions separately, everything feels messy:
Pressure on Iran
Sanctions and control over Venezuela
Tough stance with Russia, yet still talking
For new traders → it looks chaotic.
But once you put everything on one chessboard, there’s only one objective:
👉 Make sure the world still needs USD.
Not oil.
Not Iran.
Not Venezuela.
👉 Settlement currency.
Why is USD so important?
The US today:
Doesn’t compete on cheap labor
Doesn’t mass-produce low-cost goods
Doesn’t live off exports
👉 The US lives on money and the financial system.
If USD loses its central role:
Printing money becomes hard
National debt becomes a real burden
Military power loses its “credit-backed” strength
👉 Lose USD = lose superpower status.
Where does the real problem start?
Some countries sell oil to China without using USD, instead using:
Chinese yuan
Bilateral swaps
Systems outside US control
👉 For the US, this is a direct attack on the foundation of its power,
without firing a single bullet.
So what is Trump doing?
Not fighting to seize oil.
Not fighting to take land.
👉 Trump is making non-USD oil trading risky.
Very pragmatic moves:
Creating controlled instability
Disrupting “off-system” oil flows
Forcing countries back to USD because… it’s safer
A simple example for traders
Imagine a market where only one currency is accepted.
You want to buy anything?
You must use that currency.
One day, some stalls say:
“We’ll accept another currency. It’s cheaper.”
The market owner doesn’t shut them down.
He just:
Makes selling harder
Increases delivery risks
Tightens inspections
👉 Eventually, those stalls go back to the old currency to avoid headaches.
That’s exactly how USD and oil work.
Putting it all together – the trader’s view
Iran – Venezuela – Middle East
These are not random events.
👉 This is a war to maintain the monetary order.
Trump:
Isn’t fighting for oil
Isn’t fighting for morality
👉 He’s fighting for the settlement currency.
Anyone who makes the world less dependent on USD
automatically becomes a target.
CONCLUSION – trader style, slightly sarcastic 😄
Gold ATH is not the market being crazy.
👉 It’s the result of a war to protect the global “toll currency.”
If you understand this:
Charts feel less “stupid”
You stop wanting to short every high candle
Your account suffers less heart attacks
But wait 😄
The real question is:
If the big players are fighting a monetary chess game,
where should retail traders stand to avoid getting wiped out?
In the next part, I’ll talk about:
Why SELLING gold at ATH is extremely hard to survive
When chasing BUYs is stupid – and when it’s actually right
How traders can protect their rice bowl when the chart runs like it’s being chased
👉 If this hits home, drop a 🚀
Enough 🚀 and I’ll continue – no secrets 😏
Commodities
GOLD - Correction to 4900. Is there a chance it will reach 5000?FX:XAUUSD continues to update historical highs. New 4967, bears appeared (profit-taking). The market has moved into correction, but the overall fundamental (geopolitical) background is still complex...
Expectations of further easing of Fed policy remain the main factor supporting gold.
Trump's reversal on Greenland temporarily improved sentiment, but did not stop the flow into defensive assets.
Economy : GDP for the third quarter has been revised upward to 4.4%. Core PCE (inflation) rose to 2.8% y/y. Jobless claims (200,000) were better than expected.
Despite strong indicators, the dollar is weakening amid the general trend of de-dollarization .
Today, preliminary PMI (business activity) data for key regions will be released.
The figures may affect global sentiment, but are unlikely to change the main upward trend for gold.
Resistance levels: 4935, 4967, 5000
Support levels: 4900, 4888, 4870
The current correction is a distribution of the formed consolidation 4935 - 4967. In the context of the current movement, the market may test the key support area (liquidity zone) 4900 - 4888. I do not rule out a deep long squeeze (to 4870) before renewed interest in growth. In the current cycle, there is a possibility of a retest of 5000!
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold vs Bitcoin: Safety or Asymmetry?Every few years, the same question comes back.
Gold or Bitcoin?
But the chart above tells a more interesting story.
Not about competition... but about role.
Gold: The Anchor
Gold doesn’t chase excitement.
It absorbs fear.
Through uncertainty, inflation scares, and macro stress, Gold keeps doing what it has done for centuries:
protect purchasing power.
Its moves are steadier.
Its drawdowns are shallower.
Its purpose is stability.
Gold isn’t here to impress you.
It’s here to hold the line.
Bitcoin: The Asymmetry
Bitcoin is different.
It doesn’t move quietly... it moves decisively.
Long consolidations.
Deep corrections.
Then explosive expansions.
Bitcoin rewards patience, not comfort.
It offers upside, not calm.
It’s volatile by design; and that volatility is the cost of exponential potential.
Two Assets. Two Jobs.
Look at the cycles.
Gold rises when confidence fades.
Bitcoin accelerates when confidence returns.
One absorbs shock.
The other compounds growth.
This is why the real conversation isn’t which one is better.
It’s why they belong together.
The Real Strategy
This isn’t about timing tops.
Or picking winners.
It’s about:
DCA
Long-term holding
Letting time do the heavy lifting
"Gold for safety.
Bitcoin for upside."
"In times of fear, Gold is what you go to.
Bitcoin is what you go through."
And over time, that combination doesn’t just protect capital, it grows it.
Question for you:
If you zoom out 10 years from now, which matters more: picking one, or holding both?
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~ Richard Nasr
XAUUSD 15M Breakout or Rejection at Key Supply Zone📊 XAUUSD (Gold) – 15-Minute Chart Overview
This chart illustrates a range-to-breakout market structure with dual scenarios (bullish & bearish) based on key supply and demand zones.
🔹 Key Zones & Structure
🟢 Upper Resistance / Supply Zone
Highlighted by the green band with a wave-like overlay.
Price has tested this area multiple times → strong resistance.
Market reaction here decides continuation or rejection.
🟣 Lower Demand / Buy Zone
The purple rectangle below shows a strong demand area.
Previous accumulation and impulsive bullish move started from here.
Acts as a decision zone for buyers.
🔹 Bullish Scenario (Top Side)
Breakout: Price consolidates under resistance, then breaks above the green zone.
Entry: On a successful break & retest of the resistance turned support.
Target: Marked above → continuation toward higher highs (liquidity sweep / expansion).
👉 This represents trend continuation after consolidation.
🔹 Bearish Scenario (Rejection Setup)
Rejection: Price fails to hold above resistance.
Entry: Short entry from the rejection zone or lower consolidation.
Sell Zone: Price ranges inside the purple zone before breakdown.
Target: Lower purple line → previous liquidity / support sweep.
👉 This represents a fake breakout → reversal play.
🔹 Market Logic Behind the Chart
Multiple equal highs near resistance → liquidity build-up.
Compression + breakout attempt → either:
True breakout (buy continuation)
or false breakout (sell reversal)
This is a classic smart money + liquidity-based setup.
✅ Summary
📈 Above resistance → Buy continuation
📉 Rejection from resistance → Sell toward demand
⚠️ Wait for confirmation (break & retest or rejection candle)
$TSLA Earnings Surprise? Sub $400 perhapsWell... Hope everyone has been good since I've last seen everyone. I'm doing alright, thanks for asking. Had my first profitable year trading options and it feels fantastic. With that said, lets start the new year with a bang! I've got this bar pattern here, a direct bearish match. Invalidation with a close above the gap at $475. Any close below the gap fill will be considered bearish into Earnings where the pattern matches up for a mean drop sub $400 by the end of the first week of February. I'll be looking forward to catching this $70 move if possible.
Crude Oil (WTI): Short-Term Bullish Correction Before BearishHI!
Looking at the 4H chart for US Crude Oil (WTI), the price action suggests a short-term corrective rally before a continuation of the bearish trend. Below are the key levels and potential scenarios:
Key Levels:
Resistance Area (Green Zone): Currently, oil is approaching a key resistance level near the green zone. This area is expected to act as a strong resistance, potentially halting the recent bullish move and triggering a retracement. A rejection here could lead to a decline back toward lower levels, aligning with the overall bearish trend.
Magnet Area (Blue Zone): The blue zone represents the next critical support level, where price could be "magnetically" pulled towards after testing the resistance area. This zone marks a significant support region, aligning with the ascending trendline, which indicates further downside potential should the price break lower.
Target: $57.4
Geopolitical Considerations:
Ongoing geopolitical concerns, such as tensions in the Middle East, could introduce volatility and affect the price action in the short term. Any sudden shifts in supply expectations could influence the bullish or bearish potential around these key levels.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
SILVER $400 - UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY📣 Hello everyone!
Here is the global chart of XAG/USD and directly my long-term trading idea, time frame 1 month. Here is the story from 1802, but in fact this is not even a complete timeline.
I believe we are “close” to completing the Elliott Global Five on the silver chart. The first primary impulse wave, in my opinion, ended in 1864, the second corrective primary wave ended in 1932. From 1932 to 1980, the most powerful third Elliott wave of the primary level was formed - in 48 years, silver increased in price by 170 times. Then from 1980 to 1991 there was a bear market in the correctional wave-4 of the primary level. Further, from 1991 to the present day, the global impulse wave 5 of the primary level of the cycle has been developing.
Within the framework of my Elliott idea, we should expect that wave-5 of the primary level will be fully formed within 45-74 years, that is, from 2036 to 2065. Taking into account the dollar charts, US inflation, government bond yields and other important macroeconomic data, I am more inclined to believe that the cycle will end in 2036. Therefore, my goal is $400 per ounce of silver by 2036. This is an increase of approximately 18 times from the current price. This is great news for long-term investors.
As for this relatively short-term outlook for Silver, in the first half of 2024 there is still a chance, within the bullish flag, to descend to the zone of 14-16 dollars per ounce. Either way, I believe that in the longer term, silver is already incredibly close to breaking through its twelve-year downtrend resistance. As soon as the bullish flag and, accordingly, trend resistance are broken upward, then after a long period of consolidation, vigorous growth will begin and silver will quickly return to the highs of 2011. Be prepared for this.
❌ It is also necessary to understand that according to my current wave marking, under no circumstances should the price fall below $7.28, this is the completion level of wave 1 of the secondary level. If this happens, then it will be necessary to look for an error and make serious changes to the Elliott price movement marks in this trading idea.
⚠️ As always, I wish you good luck in making independent trading decisions and profit ✊
Goodbye!
What I Use to Trade XAUUSD — A Simple, Structured ApproachI’ve traded XAUUSD long enough to realize a rather uncomfortable truth: the more complex the system, the worse the results often become. I’ve tried many setups, many indicators, many approaches. But after going through multiple market cycles, what stayed with me wasn’t anything “fancy” — it was a simple, structured way of reading price.
This post isn’t about showing off a strategy or selling a method. I’m simply sharing exactly what I use every day to trade XAUUSD — clean, structured, and effective enough to survive long term.
1. I don’t try to predict the market — I read structure
My analysis always starts with market structure.
Is price making higher highs and higher lows, or lower highs and lower lows? Is the trend still intact, or has it been broken?
If the structure is clear, I have no reason to fight it.
If structure breaks, I stop and observe.
I don’t look for entries first.
I look for the right context first.
2. EMA 34 & EMA 89 — enough to know where I stand
I only use two moving averages: EMA 34 and EMA 89.
Not to catch tops or bottoms, but to answer very basic questions:
- Is the market trending or ranging?
- Is the current move impulsive or corrective?
- Am I trading with momentum or against it?
When price is above the EMAs and they slope upward, I prioritize buys.
When price is below the EMAs and they slope downward, I prioritize sells.
That’s it — simple, but it filters out a lot of low-quality trades.
3. Support & resistance: fewer levels, but meaningful ones
I don’t draw many zones. I only keep levels that matter:
- Clear swing highs and lows on H4 and D1
- Areas where price previously reacted strongly
- When price pulls back into these zones while the trend remains valid, I pay attention.
No FOMO. No chasing price.
I wait for price to come to a place where risk is low and probability is high.
4. Entry matters less than the reason behind it
I never enter a trade just because it “looks good.”
Every trade must answer:
- Am I trading with the trend or against it?
- What structure is supporting this idea?
- If I’m wrong, where exactly am I wrong?
My stop loss is always placed where the idea is invalidated, not where it feels comfortable.
I’m willing to take small losses to earn the right to stay in the game.
5. News is a catalyst — not the steering wheel
With XAUUSD, news can accelerate price — but structure still matters.
I follow news to understand:
- When volatility may expand
- When I should be more cautious with position size
But my final decision always comes from the chart.
If structure isn’t clear, I stay out — no matter how “hot” the news is.
Final thoughts
I’m not trying to trade more.
I’m trying to trade more clearly.
XAUUSD is a great market, but it doesn’t reward confusion or lack of discipline. When you have a simple, structured approach that you can repeat, trading stops being gambling — it becomes a process.
If your chart feels crowded right now, maybe it’s time to remove, not add.
📌 If this post helped you see XAUUSD more clearly, feel free to leave a comment or follow me so we can continue discussing simple, practical ways to read the market.
Demand Defended, But Structure Still Needs ConfirmationOn the Bitcoin (BTCUSD) H1 chart, price has completed a full bearish impulse and is now stabilizing after a strong reaction from the demand zone around 87,700–88,200. The sharp bullish rejection from this area confirms that buyers are active and defending value, not a passive bounce. This demand reaction broke the immediate downside momentum and forced price into a tight consolidation above demand, which is a constructive behavior after a sell-off.
However, structurally, Bitcoin is not bullish yet. Price is still trading below the declining EMA cluster, and the broader market structure remains corrective. What we are seeing now is absorption and base-building, not expansion. The current sideways movement between roughly 89,000–90,300 suggests the market is rebalancing liquidity after the sell side sweep, allowing larger players to accumulate without pushing price aggressively higher.
From a scenario perspective:
- Bullish case: Holding above the demand zone and building higher lows would allow price to rotate upward toward 91,200 → 92,800 → 93,500, where major prior supply and resistance reside. A clean reclaim of 91.2k would be the first real confirmation of trend recovery.
- Neutral / corrective case: Continued range-bound action with shallow pullbacks is still healthy and supports accumulation.
- Bearish risk: Failure to hold the demand zone would reopen the downside toward 86,900, but current price action does not yet support this outcome.
This is a post-impulse stabilization phase, not a reversal yet. The market has clearly stopped going down, but it must prove strength through structure reclaim, not prediction. Until BTC reclaims key resistance with acceptance, the correct mindset is patience and reaction, letting the market confirm the next expansion leg.
How a Gold Uptrend Really WorksIf you’ve followed gold long enough, you’ll notice something interesting:
gold’s uptrend never goes straight up. It has rhythm. It pauses. It has phases that make newcomers think “it’s over,” and those very phases often become the foundation for the next leg higher. Put simply—and true to its nature—a gold uptrend is usually built from three repeating phases until it finally ends: strong expansion, pullback, and consolidation.
The first phase is always the one that grabs attention. Price accelerates quickly, candles are long with little wick, and the screen stays green. News tends to appear right on cue to justify the move, even though price usually moves first. This is when everyone starts talking about gold—from traders to people who aren’t even in the market. In this phase, large capital pushes price away from value, early trend followers are already in profit, and most latecomers only realize the opportunity after price has already traveled a significant distance. FOMO shows up—but usually a bit too late.
After such a rally, gold rarely continues straight higher. The market needs to breathe. Early buyers begin to take profits, and larger players need to test whether there’s still demand below. Price starts to pull back, but the key point is this: the decline is usually slower than the advance. It doesn’t break prior lows, it doesn’t trigger real panic, but it’s uncomfortable enough to make many newer traders uneasy. Many look at this pullback and conclude that the trend is over, while for those who understand structure, this is often proof that the trend is still healthy. In simple terms, price is just checking whether buyers are still willing to step in.
Once the pullback completes, the market enters the most frustrating phase: consolidation. Price moves sideways in a tight range—not high enough to feel good buying, not low enough to confidently sell. This is the phase that exhausts both bulls and bears. Impatient traders start to walk away, thinking “gold is boring.” But if you look closer, this is often when large players quietly build positions. Liquidity is formed, patience is tested, and the base for the next expansion slowly takes shape.
Then, when conditions are right, gold breaks higher again. The old cycle ends, a new one begins: a fresh expansion, a new pullback, and another consolidation zone. That’s how an uptrend is truly built—not by a single vertical move, but by many advances and pauses that constantly make most participants feel like they’re entering at the wrong time.
And this is exactly why so many people still lose money even in a clearly defined uptrend. They only like the expansion phase, where emotions are rewarded. They fear the pullback, because everywhere they look they see risk. And they hate consolidation, because it doesn’t “feel” like making money. Yet in reality, profits are realized during the expansion—but good positions are prepared during the pullbacks and consolidations , when the crowd has already lost interest.
The Scariest Chart for Silver ShortsAfter flipping from long to short and getting quickly stopped out, I took a step back to try to see the big picture and answer the question, where is silver headed?
Silver is clearly in a parabolic move and the question is no longer whether silver will experience a significant decline from its future top, but rather, when that will occur. Getting the timing wrong will only lead to misery.
I was planning to short heavily at $100, but now I'm not so sure that would be wise. Yes, $100 is a psychological barrier and also coincides with Elliott Wave targets. However, silver has a long history of surprising to the upside during powerful parabolic moves. Three previous times in silver's charted history did it have a 2+ year long parabolic move. What's interesting about those moves is that duration is perfectly correlated with price top. The 71-74 (blue), 76-80 (red), and 08-11 (green) fractals (monthly bars from pivot low to high), are all logarithmically mapped from the 22 pivot low.
I doubt I'll be able to resist shorting at $100, but I will be sure to preserve most of my capital for any move above $150. At $150, I'll be willing to take on substantial risk as the trade will be quite asymmetric.
Short AirlinesThis is an Oil-Iran play.
I am holding positions currently on Oil, United, and Southwest.
Bulls are in control of Oil on the daily chart.
Bears are now in control of UAL.
UAL has the highest exposure to the middle east as they run the most flights in and out, and tend to cancel flights frequently when middle east conflict occurs.
USOIL BULLISH BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅WTI OIL strong bullish breakout above prior consolidation signals a clear shift in market structure. Price holds above former resistance, suggesting continuation toward external buy-side liquidity after brief consolidation. Time Frame 2H.
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Gold – Late-Stage Uptrend | Rising Risk, No Clear Short YetGold is trading near historical highs, where classical supply concepts no longer apply.
At these levels, price behavior is driven more by momentum, positioning, and psychology than by traditional resistance zones.
Current Market Context
Current highs are all-time / historical levels
No well-defined HTF supply zones to lean against
Upside extension is driven mainly by momentum and liquidity, not structural imbalance
Fading price simply because it is “high” lacks technical edge
Trend Status and Risk Considerations
The higher-timeframe structure remains bullish and price continues to respect a clear ascending channel.
However, the market is now entering a late-stage expansion phase , where the risk-to-reward profile for new long positions becomes increasingly challenging.
Trend direction is still bullish
Upside continuation is possible, but no longer asymmetric
Late long entries carry elevated risk
This is no longer an “easy buy-the-dip” environment
Why Shorts Are Still Premature
Despite the extended move:
No confirmed HTF structure breakdown
No clear distribution or topping pattern
Counter-trend shorts remain speculative without confirmation
Emerging Warning Signals
One important development is the appearance of multiple timeframe divergences .
Momentum is slowing while price continues to push higher
Upward legs require more effort
Acceleration is decreasing
Divergences alone do not reverse trends, but in late-stage trends they often precede corrections or lower-timeframe regime shifts .
What This Phase Typically Leads To
Rather than an immediate reversal, the market is more likely to transition into:
A time-based correction (range or compression)
Or a lower-timeframe trend shift (e.g. 15-minute structure)
Execution Focus
Lower timeframes, especially 15-minute structure, become critical at this stage.
Watch for HH → LH transitions
Acceptance below short-term structure
Failed continuation attempts following divergence
Broader Context
Persistent risk-off sentiment, central bank accumulation, and macro uncertainty continue to support gold structurally, helping explain why pullbacks remain shallow and why exhaustion is taking time to develop.
Conclusion
Gold remains in an uptrend, but this is no longer a low-risk environment.
Buying is becoming risk-heavy, while selling remains structure-light.
This phase favors patience, confirmation, and observation over aggression.
Bitcoin Elliott Wave Outlook: $200k Next! Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Weekly Outlook
Bitcoin is currently correcting the impulsive advance in a wave 4 structure.
The correction is unfolding as a W-X-Y, which is a common form of complex consolidation following a strong wave 3.
* Wave W has already completed
* Wave X acted as the connector
* Price is now in the process of completing the final Y leg of wave 4
At this stage, we are not interested in predicting the exact bottom. Instead, the focus is on allowing wave Y to fully mature and give us structure.
Once wave Y completes:
* We will draw the entry trendline across wave Y
* A clean break of that trendline will be our confirmation that wave 4 has ended
* That break signals the start of wave 5, where momentum should expand again
From an Elliott Wave perspective, wave 5 extensions following a wave-3 expansion of this magnitude make new highs not only possible, but realistic.
Based on the higher-timeframe structure, $200,000 becomes a logical and achievable objective for the next impulsive leg.
Plan
* Allow wave Y to complete
* Draw the trendline across wave Y
* Enter Bitcoin on the break of that trendline
* Targets align with a full wave 5 extension to new highs
This keeps us reactive, not predictive - letting price confirm before committing capital.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
GLD: short- and mid-term projection As long as price continues to close above 397, I’m expecting further short-term upside toward the 430–440 resistance zone, with potential extension to 460 in the coming weeks.
Chart (daily):
Within the broader macro structure, I am viewing these levels as a likely mid-term topping zone, followed by a multi-month correction and consolidation before another leg higher into late 2026+.
Weekly view:
Oil is Boiling! 1/23/2026
After CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s big run to $126K (now cooling off in corrective mode), Silver and Gold are pushing into new highs and closing in on their projected targets. Meanwhile, Oil popped +2.45% today and the chart is heating up — technically it looks primed for a major upside move.
With rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the energy market is getting extra fuel.
Historically, geopolitical shocks have been one of the strongest catalysts for sharp Oil price swings — more than almost any other factor.
Momentum is shifting fast across the board… the next big rotation could be explosive!
Happy Trading!
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPHey everyone,
Please take a moment to review our long term weekly chart roadmap.
After multiple tests around 4519, leaving small candle body closes, we highlighted a significant long-range gap open at 4799.
As projected, price responded with a surge of over 1,000 pips, unfolding precisely as outlined. Importantly, the full gap is still open. Given the current volatility, the higher probability approach remains trading from the dips, not chasing price at the top using our smaller, multi-timeframe route maps for precision.
The safest way to pursue extended-range targets is through position building from pullbacks, riding the wave in a way that progressively reduces risk and allows the trade to become effectively risk free.
Discipline, patience, and structure continue to lead the way.
We’ll keep these long range timeframe structures in mind as we continue with our plans to buy dips.
We will keep you all updated as this chart idea unfolds.
Mr Gold
EURUSD Daily Bullish Outlook | ERL → IRL Hello traders,
In this daily timeframe analysis of EURUSD, I remain bullish, supported by multiple higher-time-frame confluences.
After a strong bullish leg, price has retraced more than 50% of the previous impulse, bringing it into a discount zone, which aligns perfectly with a bullish daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a previous inversion level. This area represents strong institutional interest.
From a liquidity perspective, the market appears to be rotating from ERL (External Range Liquidity) into IRL (Internal Range Liquidity), which commonly precedes continuation in the direction of the higher-time-frame bias.
As long as price respects this daily bullish FVG, I expect bullish continuation and a push toward higher prices, targeting external liquidity on the upside.
This idea becomes invalid if price delivers a strong daily close below the bullish FVG.
Trade safe and manage risk properly.
Cheers 🍀






















