XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for December 29thGold Technical Analysis:
Daily Resistance: 4550, Support: 4403
4-Hour Resistance: 4550, Support: 4430
1-Hour Resistance: 4488, Support: 4445
Gold experienced a stepped decline today, breaking below the recent MA5 moving average support. Whether it can recover this level today is a key reference point for whether the short-term trend will rebound or continue downward. The moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, the Bollinger Bands are trending upwards, and the overall price action is within an upward channel. Watch the short-term support levels of 4445/4430, and the immediate resistance level is around the intraday high of 4550.
On the 1-hour chart, the price action is at a high level, exhibiting a double-top pattern followed by a sharp decline. The price has broken below the upward trend support line, and the short-term focus is on the continuation of the downward momentum. Currently, attention is focused on the lower edge of the high-level consolidation range, where there is some support. The current structure still favors buyers, and the slowdown in upward momentum aligns with the need for adjustment after the recent sharp rise and also reflects the expectation of profit-taking at higher levels before the New Year holiday. Support levels to watch are around 4445/4430. The short-term strategy remains to wait for a pullback and look for support levels to buy.
Trading Strategy:
BUY: 4445 near
BUY: 4430 near
If it breaks below 4420, consider buying again around 4403.
More detailed analysis →
Commodities
DeGRAM | GOLD is above the support area📊 Technical Analysis
● XAU/USD remains within a broader ascending channel, where the recent pullback stalled inside a well-defined support area. Buyers reacted near the lower channel boundary, preserving the higher-low structure.
● The rejection from upper resistance formed a corrective leg rather than a trend reversal. Price is now stabilizing above key support, suggesting a potential rebound toward the mid-channel and prior resistance zones.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Gold continues to draw support from sustained geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of easing monetary policy, while softer real yields keep downside pressure limited.
✨ Summary
● Short-term bullish bias holds. Support near the lower channel is critical. Recovery toward 4,497–4,520 is favored as long as price stays above the support area.
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XAUUSD – Developing Structure & Daily RSI Bearish DivergenceGold is currently trading near the upper boundary of a developing rising structure on the daily chart. This structure is not yet fully confirmed, but price is reacting from a potential resistance zone while momentum is weakening.
Price is attempting to extend higher, however RSI (14) is forming a lower high — creating a bearish divergence. This does not necessarily signal a major trend reversal, but it does warn of possible exhaustion and a corrective phase.
Important context:
The current daily candle still has around 12 hours until close.
We are in the Christmas / year-end holiday period with thin liquidity, which increases the probability of sharp moves and profit-taking reactions.
Personal bias / expectation:
I do not expect a deep bearish reversal at this stage. My primary expectation is a phase of profit-taking and a controlled pullback rather than a full trend change.
Possible corrective objectives:
• Return to the previous ATH zone.
• Mean reversion into the mid of the developing structure / prior consolidation base.
Confirmation trigger:
A bearish displacement candle breaking below the most recent higher low would be the first sign that profit-taking is expanding.
Invalidation:
Strong daily acceptance above the current highs with improving RSI structure would delay or cancel the corrective scenario.
This is a technical perspective based on structure and momentum, not financial advice.
Weekly Market Outlook (Week 53)🔘 EURUSD
Buyers continue to apply pressure on the 1.1800 resistance, with a breakout expected in the short term as the market targets seller stop-losses above this zone. The global bullish signal remains intact, suggesting further upside potential once the current resistance is cleared.
🔘 GBPUSD
The pair is currently testing a major resistance line within a global bullish structure. A local pullback followed by a continued move upward is the most likely scenario as the price maintains its long-term momentum.
🔘 AUDUSD
Price has stabilized at the critical resistance zone and is expected to maintain its short-term upward trajectory toward 0.6750. Traders should watch for a bullish continuation signal within the framework of the current medium-term trend.
🔘 USDJPY
The pair maintains its medium-term upward momentum. The technical model points to a likely target at 162.00 if buyers hold the likely breakout of resistance at 158.
🔘 XAUUSD
Gold has reached a significant resistance line near the 4531 peak, where a technical correction toward the 4350 - 4400 support area is now probable. Despite the global bullish signal, the current price extension suggests a period of cooling off.
🔘 XAGUSD
Silver has entered a vertical parabolic phase, reaching extreme highs near 79.14. Given the aggressive nature of this move, a sharp corrective reversal is expected as the market seeks a more sustainable support level.
🔘 BTCUSD
Bitcoin continues to trade within a bearish structure, capped by descending resistance lines and failing to hold higher levels. The momentum currently favors a retest of the 81,000 support zone in the coming days.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis: Market participants are navigating the final week of the year under conditions of significantly thinned liquidity, which often leads to erratic price movements and widened spreads. Investors are largely focused on year-end portfolio rebalancing and the "January Effect," while keeping a close eye on any late-breaking geopolitical shifts. With major banks closed for the New Year holiday, expect low-volume trading to dominate until the full return of institutional players in early 2026.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a potential trade idea based on current analysis; market conditions and price direction are subject to change based on news factors and volatility.
XAUUSD Sellers Defend Resistance, Eyes on PullbackHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook on XAUUSD (4H) based on the current chart structure. Gold remains in a bullish structure after breaking above a descending resistance line, confirming a shift in control to buyers. Price then consolidated in a clear range, showing balanced market activity before continuing higher. The upside breakout from this range, supported by a rising trend line, confirms ongoing bullish momentum. Currently, XAUUSD is testing a key Resistance Level within the Seller Zone, where selling pressure may appear. Below, the former resistance has turned into a strong Support Level, aligned with the Buyer Zone near 4,440 and the previous breakout area. My scenario: as long as price remains below the Seller Zone and shows rejection from resistance, the bias turns bearish, with TP1 targeting a move back toward the Buyer Zone and trend-line support. A strong breakout and acceptance above resistance would invalidate the short scenario and suggest further upside continuation. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Swing Long Trade Idea on USOILSwing Long Trade Idea on USOIL
In 2025, metals, commodities, equities, and Bitcoin all reached new all time highs, while USOIL has lagged behind. I believe we could see a catch up move in USOIL during Q1 2026, as price is currently holding at a strong support level. I am considering a swing long position if USOIL breaks out of the descending triangle. The RR on this setup looks very attractive. My plan is to take partial profits at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, set the second target at the top of the channel, and trail the stop loss after the first target is reached.
Share you thoughts
Gold - Breakout, Retest, Reload?Gold continues to respect a clean bullish structure 📈 on the 4H timeframe. After breaking above the previous all-time high, price has shifted that level into demand, confirming strength rather than exhaustion.
⚔️The rising blue trendline remains intact , and every pullback so far has been met with aggressive dip-buying, reinforcing the trend-following environment.
As long as price holds above the highlighted demand zone, the bias remains firmly bullish.
From here, the plan is simple and disciplined:
🏹I’ll be looking for longs on pullbacks into demand, in alignment with the trend, rather than chasing price higher. A clean reaction from this zone keeps the path open for continuation toward new highs.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
XAU/USD | New ATH at the horizon (READ THE CAPTION)Good day folks, Amirali here.
As you can see in the Hourly chart of Gold, it set a new ATH at 4550, and
Gold reacted to the NDOG at 4445 and bounced back up to 4474. it is currently being traded 4476.
Next bullish targets for Gold are: 4500, 4525, 4550, 4575 and 4600.
Correction vs. Reversal: How Will the Market Choose?#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Good morning. Last Friday, I warned of the possibility of a market pullback after a surge, and the market has now successfully delivered on our prediction. If you have paid close attention to my analysis and have not blindly followed the trend, then congratulations on successfully avoiding market risks
Gold prices have now fallen below the daily MA5 and may see further pullback. The next key level to watch is the short-term support around 4430, which is last week's low. A small long position could be considered on the first touch of this level, with a key support level around 4400 (the daily MA10). If this level holds, gold prices are likely to rebound
Therefore, our goal is clear, if the market continues to fall and retraces to around 4430-4420, we will take a small long position. If the decline continues to the daily MA10, we will consider adding to our position around 4410-4400.
In short, we will only trade at key price levels, we will not consider trading in other areas
DeGRAM | GOLD is testing the important resistance level📊 Technical Analysis
● XAU/USD is trading near the upper boundary of a rising channel, where multiple rejections from the resistance line signal weakening bullish momentum. The latest push created a visible gap and false breakout, often preceding corrective pullbacks.
● Price structure shows exhaustion after a steep impulse, with consolidation zones below acting as magnets. A breakdown toward 4,450–4,400 aligns with channel mean reversion and prior support levels.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Gold faces pressure from stable US yields and reduced safe-haven demand as risk sentiment improves, limiting upside continuation in the medium term.
✨ Summary
● Medium-term short from channel resistance. Key resistance: ~4,520. Targets: 4,450–4,400. Trend weakens if price holds above the channel top.
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Gold Technical Analysis | XAUUSD Holds Support, Eyes 4600+ LevelGold remains bullish within a rising channel and is currently trading above the key support zone around 4470-85 which aligns with the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the lower trendline of the channel. Price recently showed BOS (break of structure) and CHoCH confirming bullish market structure followed by a healthy pullback that held support.
The current consolidation just below 4535-40 suggests liquidity buildup rather than weakness. As long as price holds above 4485 the bias stays bullish with upside targets toward 4586 and 4617. A clean breakout and hold above 4540 could accelerate momentum toward 4600+ while a break below 4470 would delay the move and shift price into deeper consolidation.
Overall, trend remains bullish with pullbacks seen as buying opportunities.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Gold in 2026: Will the Bull Market Defy Gravity?Gold emerged as the premier asset of 2025, delivering a remarkable year-to-date gain of roughly 60% . The precious metal shattered multiple records, peaking near $4,550 per ounce in December. While the S&P 500 advanced approximately 17%, gold decisively outperformed almost every major asset class. As we enter 2026, the market must decide if this powerful uptrend still has "fuel in the tank."
Fed Policy and the Opportunity Cost Shift
Federal Reserve policy remains the primary engine for gold’s momentum. After reigniting the easing cycle in late 2024, markets now price in approximately * 60 basis points of additional cuts for 2026. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, making gold more attractive to institutional investors.
The potential appointment of a more dovish Fed chair in mid-2026 could further accelerate this trend. President Trump has publicly pressured for more forceful rate reductions to support economic expansion. If the Fed adopts a markedly more accommodative tone, gold could easily target the $5,000 psychological barrier .
Geopolitical Flashpoints and Tariff Warfare
Military conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Middle East continue to drive persistent safe-haven inflows. However, the "Trump Liberation Day" announcement of sweeping global tariffs has become an even larger catalyst for demand. Investors increasingly utilize gold as a hedge against the resulting trade-war uncertainty and currency volatility.
Central Banks and the De-Dollarization Narrative
Central banks are fundamentally altering the global reserve landscape. Emerging market institutions, led by China and India, are stockpiling gold to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. In 2025, official sector demand reached record-breaking levels, with quarterly totals often exceeding 900 tonnes .
While the pace of accumulation may moderate slightly in 2026, the structural trend remains firmly bullish. Central banks now treat gold as strategic collateral in an increasingly fragmented global financial system.
The Gold-to-Silver Ratio Compression
While gold’s performance was exceptional, it lagged behind the explosive gains in silver, which surged over 150% in 2025 . This dynamic caused the gold-to-silver ratio to tumble toward the 70 mark. Historically, such a sharp compression often precedes a renewed acceleration in the gold rally as the ratio reverts toward the mean.
Risks: Jewelry Demand and Regulatory Headwinds
Despite robust investment interest, record-high prices are crushing physical jewelry demand. Worldwide jewelry consumption saw a 31% year-on-year decline in Q3 2025 as consumers balked at elevated costs.
Additionally, new regulatory measures could dampen local demand in key markets. China’s decision to cut tax exemptions on certain gold holdings might exert downward pressure on prices in early 2026. If the Fed implements fewer rate cuts than anticipated due to a resilient U.S. economy, the bull run could enter a consolidation phase during the second half of the year.
Strategic Outlook for 2026
Technical analysts target the $5,000 to $5,200 range for gold in the first half of 2026. This target aligns with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of recent corrections. While the path will not be linear, the convergence of geopolitical risk, debt expansion, and accommodative monetary policy justifies a higher equilibrium price.
UKOILSPOT H1 | Potential Bearish ReversalBased on the H1 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to our sell entry level at 61.24, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 61.24, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our stop loss is set at 62.05, which is a swing high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (
GOLD ANALYSIS 12/29/20251. Fundamental Analysis
a) Economic Factors:
• USD: After a period of weakness driven by expectations of FED rate cuts, the USD is showing a short-term technical rebound → creating mild corrective pressure on gold within a narrow range.
• US Equities: Capital flow still favors risk assets, but momentum is slowing as markets approach high valuation zones.
• FED: Expectations of rate cuts next year remain the key pillar supporting gold in the medium–long term. The FED is not rushing into aggressive easing → gold is likely to move sideways or undergo technical corrections.
• TRUMP: Statements and the possibility of a return to the political stage increase policy uncertainty, which is beneficial for gold in the long run.
• Gold ETFs (SPDR): ETF flows remain in accumulation mode with no significant outflows → confirming the primary uptrend is intact. However, current holdings are very high, and partial profit-taking this week is highly possible → be cautious of sudden sharp drops.
b) Political Factors:
• Global geopolitical risks remain elevated (Middle East, Russia–Ukraine) → gold continues to play its safe-haven role.
c) Market Sentiment:
• Mild risk-on sentiment but cautious. Investors are not ready to aggressively sell gold; instead, they are waiting for pullbacks to buy.
• Year-end trading is quiet with thin liquidity.
2. Technical Analysis
• Main trend: UP (Higher High – Higher Low) on H1/H4.
• Price is consolidating below the strong resistance zone around 4,550 after printing a new ATH.
• Rising trendline remains intact → market structure is not broken.
• RSI:
• Pulling back to the neutral zone and bouncing again → signals short-term correction, not reversal; potential for a mild rebound in the early Asian session.
• Preferred scenario: Sideways movement – shallow pullback – then continuation of the uptrend. Look for buying opportunities at support zones when signals appear.
• Key Technical Levels:
• Resistance: 4,550 – 4,577 – 4,604
• Support: 4,525 – 4,500 – 4,481
3. Previous Session (26/12/25):
• Gold surged strongly with a breakout to new highs, then moved sideways without heavy selling.
• Buying pressure remained dominant; selling was mainly technical profit-taking.
• No major distribution signals → market remains healthy.
4. Today’s Strategy (29/12/25):
🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4510 – 4508
• SL: 4514
• TP1: 4502
• TP2: 4496
🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4402 – 4404
• SL: 4398
• TP1: 4410
• TP2: 4416
GOLD H1 | Could We See A Bounce?The price is reacting off our buy entry level of 4,444.83, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is at 4,519.14, which is a pullback resistance.
Our stop loss is at 4,417.57, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (
DOW THEORY – THE FOUNDATION OF TREND READING1. The Market Moves in Trends – Not Randomly
Price does not move randomly. What looks like chaos is simply organized collective behavior.
A trend exists only when price structure is respected:
Uptrend: Higher Highs & Higher Lows
Downtrend: Lower Highs & Lower Lows
As long as this structure remains intact, the trend is still valid, regardless of news, opinions, or emotions.
2. Every Trend Has Three Levels of Movement
Markets operate across multiple time layers simultaneously:
Primary Trend: The dominant direction (weeks to months)
Secondary Move: Corrections against the main trend
Minor Swings: Short-term noise
Most traders lose money because they trade against the primary trend, reacting emotionally to minor fluctuations and mistaking them for reversals.
3. The Three Psychological Phases of a Trend
A trend evolves through three distinct phases:
🔹 Accumulation
Smart money builds positions quietly
Sideways price action, low volatility
Minimal public interest
🔹 Participation
Trend becomes obvious
Breakouts occur
This is where most profits are made
🔹 Distribution
Late buyers enter emotionally
Volatility increases
Smart money exits
Understanding these phases helps traders avoid buying tops and selling bottoms.
4. Structure Is the Only Valid Trend Confirmation
A trend is not confirmed by indicators.
A trend is confirmed when:
- Price breaks structure in the trend direction
- Pullbacks respect previous swing levels
- Momentum continues after corrections
If structure is not broken, there is no reversal only a correction.
This is why predicting tops and bottoms is dangerous.
5. Volume Confirms Direction — Not Timing
Volume does not tell you when to enter — it tells you whether the move is real:
- Rising volume with the trend → confirmation
- Weak volume during pullbacks → healthy correction
- High volume against structure → warning sign
Price leads. Volume confirms.
HOW TO APPLY DOW THEORY IN REAL TRADING
A simple, repeatable framework:
1. Identify the dominant trend (HH/HL or LH/LL)
2. Wait for a correction, not a reversal
3. Enter only after structure resumes in trend direction
4. Place stop-loss where structure becomes invalid
5. Hold until the market changes structure
No prediction. No guessing.
Just reading what price is already telling you.
The vertical rise of Gold.In the mid-seventies Gold made a top and a bottom, from which we measure using a fibonacci extension tool.
Of special interest are the 2.272, 3.272 and 4.272 levels. Those give us a glimpse into the possible future, at which levels Gold might top out.
Since 2022 major Central Banks have been going on a Gold shopping spree, the once described barabrous relic seems to be a very coveted commodity, and it makes sense.
When everything becomes digital, virtual and ephemere, hard assets save the day.
Do you see 15K happening ?
Silver - 45 Years of Breakout!Silver has just completed one of the largest and longest cup and handle patterns in financial history, spanning more than four decades. The metal has officially broken above the 1980 and 2011 highs, signaling a potential supercycle breakout on the monthly timeframe.
This type of long-term technical structure typically marks the beginning of a massive secular bull run, often driven by macroeconomic shifts such as inflation cycles, fiat currency debasement, and rising demand for hard assets.
Technical Highlights:
- Pattern: 45-year Cup and Handle formation
- Breakout Zone: Above $50 confirmed (Weekly chart)
- Structure: Deep base formation showing multiple accumulation phases (1981–2001 and 2012–2023)
Macro Perspective:
Silver is benefiting from:
- Increased industrial demand (especially in solar, EV, and electronics sectors)
- Inflationary monetary policies and growing global money supply
- Renewed investor interest in tangible and real assets
This breakout could mark the start of a multi-year bull run for silver. Long-term investors may view this as an opportunity to accumulate and hold for 10–15 years, aligning with the magnitude and duration of the pattern.
If the price experiences short-term pullbacks in the coming months, use DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) to build long-term exposure.
Conclusion:
After 45 years of consolidation, silver is finally breaking free. The chart points toward a historic structural breakout, potentially setting the stage for the next precious metals supercycle.
Cheers
Hexa
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk responsibly.
Gold 1H – Institutions Play Liquidity Between 4530 & 4430🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (29/12)
📈 Market Context
Gold remains bullish by higher-timeframe structure, but current price action shows clear signs of compression and distribution after an extended impulsive rally. As price trades near recent highs into year-end, liquidity conditions are thinning — increasing the probability of engineered moves rather than clean continuation.
With USD flows mixed and no decisive macro catalyst dominating, Gold is vulnerable to Smart Money manipulation: attracting breakout buyers near resistance while forcing weak longs out at discount levels before revealing true directional intent.
In this environment, patience and confirmation are critical. Smart Money is likely to sweep liquidity on one side of the range before committing to the next expansion.
🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H)
Current Phase: HTF bullish structure, short-term corrective distribution
Key Idea: Liquidity interaction expected at premium or discount before displacement
Structural Notes:
• Higher-timeframe BOS remains intact
• Short-term CHoCH signals corrective phase
• Price trades inside a rising corrective channel
• Premium conditions favor stop hunts
• Clear imbalance and demand sit below current price
• Defined range between resistance and correction lows
• Buy-side liquidity above 4528–4530
• Sell-side liquidity resting below 4430
Liquidity Zones & Triggers:
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 4528 – 4530 | SL 4540
• 🟢 BUY GOLD 4430 – 4432 | SL 4420
🧠 Institutional Flow Expectation:
Liquidity sweep → MSS / CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG / OB retest → expansion
🎯 Execution Rules (Matching Exact Zones)
🔴 SELL GOLD 4528 – 4530 | SL 4540
Rules:
✔ Sweep into resistance / buy-side liquidity
✔ Bearish MSS or CHoCH on M5–M15
✔ Downside BOS with impulsive displacement
✔ Entry via bearish FVG refill or refined supply OB
Targets:
4500
4475
4430 – extension if downside momentum accelerates
🟢 BUY GOLD 4430 – 4432 | SL 4420
Rules:
✔ Liquidity grab into correction / demand zone
✔ Bullish MSS or CHoCH confirms demand control
✔ Upside BOS with strong displacement
✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest
Targets:
4460
4500
4528 – extension if bullish structure resumes
⚠️ Risk Notes
• Premium pricing increases fake breakout probability
• No entry without MSS + BOS confirmation
• Expect volatility during U.S. session
• Reduce risk in thin year-end liquidity conditions
📍 Summary
Gold remains bullish by structure, but current price action favors liquidity games inside a defined range. Smart Money is likely to engineer stops before expansion:
• A sweep above 4528–4530 may fade back toward 4475–4430, or
• A liquidity grab near 4430–4432 could reload longs toward 4500–4530+
Let price show intent — Smart Money waits, retail reacts. ⚡️
📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns._
Market Report — Friday 26.12.25📉 Market Moves
WTI front-month (CLG26): −2.76% (−1.61)
Behavior: sharp sell-off through the session; prices weakened intraday as peace-deal headlines gained traction and closed near session lows.
RBOB gasoline (RBG26): −2.66% (−0.0467)
Behavior: tracked crude lower with high beta; product selling accelerated alongside crude as risk premium was removed.
Complex view: broad risk-premium unwind, with crude and products moving in tandem.
📊 Key Drivers
Bearish
Ukraine–Russia peace progress (major):
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a 20-point peace plan is ~90% complete and expects to meet Donald Trump, increasing expectations that sanctions on Russian energy could eventually be eased.
Risk premium compression:
Markets discounted reduced geopolitical disruption risk if negotiations advance, prompting liquidation after recent supply-risk rallies.
Rising US rig count:
Baker Hughes reported US oil rigs up +3 w/w to 409, tempering the bullish supply narrative from prior weeks.
Medium-term surplus narrative:
OPEC and IEA continue to project 2025–26 surplus conditions.
Bullish
Venezuela tanker blockade (secondary):
The US Coast Guard forced the sanctioned tanker Bella 1 to turn away as part of the blockade involving Venezuela, supporting prices at the margin.
Russia supply constraints (secondary):
Continued Ukrainian attacks on refineries and tankers and ongoing US/EU sanctions limit exports from Russia.
Nigeria security strikes:
US strikes on ISIS targets in Nigeria (an OPEC member) added minor geopolitical support.
OPEC+ discipline:
OPEC+ reaffirmed its plan to pause production increases in Q1-2026.
📝 Post-Mortem Analysis
Why prices moved: Markets aggressively priced in the possibility of a Ukraine–Russia ceasefire, stripping out geopolitical risk premium despite ongoing physical disruptions.
Crude vs products: Gasoline followed crude lower with little independent support, reflecting weak seasonal demand and high correlation during risk-off sessions.
What changed from prior day: The narrative shifted from supply disruption escalation to diplomatic progress, reversing the bullish momentum built earlier in the week.
🧾 Summary
Oil prices sold off sharply as peace-deal optimism triggered a risk-premium unwind that overwhelmed ongoing Venezuela and Russia supply constraints.






















