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This Is Distribution — Not a PullbackOANDA:XAUUSD has shifted into a bearish structure on H1 after failing at the 4550 supply. The strong impulsive sell-off broke prior higher lows, confirming a clear change in market character. Price is now consolidating inside the 4320–4380 reaction zone, suggesting distribution and rebalancing rather than a simple pullback. Resistance: 4370–4380, 4450–4480 Support: 4320–4300, 4280–4265 ➡️ Primary: lower highs → sell rallies → continuation toward 4300 → 4280. ⚠️ Risk: strong reclaim above 4380 on H1 opens a corrective rotation toward 4450. If this idea resonates with you, traders, share your view in the comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mathew_TraderGold
1
Gold’s Sharp Sell-Off Is a Reset, Not the Start of a Bear TrendHello everyone, Price OANDA:XAUUSD has now reacted strongly from the 4.30x–4.32x demand zone, which aligns with a previous base and marks the end of the impulsive leg down. The current bounce should be viewed as a technical reaction, not a trend reversal. Structurally, this fits well with the early stages of an ABC corrective structure. 4.38x–4.40x: first resistance zone, previously broken support and near EMA34. This is a high-probability reaction area for sellers (wave A). 4.34x–4.35x: potential pullback zone (wave B) if price fails to reclaim structure. 4.46x–4.48x: corrective upside extension (wave C) if momentum sustains, but still within a corrective context. Price continues to rebound to retest the 4.40x – 4.41x zone (short-term resistance / Wave A). - A corrective phase B may occur here before: - If buying pressure is strong enough → price continues wave C, heading towards a higher zone (4.48x – 4.50x). - If the price fails to break through zone A and is strongly rejected, the market will return to a sideways consolidation phase within the Liquidity range, needing more time to absorb supply. Only a clean reclaim above EMA89 and acceptance back above the broken channel would signal that buyers have regained control and reopen the path toward the 4.55x–4.60x region. Until that happens, any upside movement on H1 should be treated as corrective rebalancing after a completed trend, not a fresh impulsive advance. Wishing you all effective and disciplined trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RexTraderGOLD
XAUUSD Deep Pullback / What to Expect as the New Year UnfoldsI’m currently looking at Gold (XAUUSD) 👀🥇. We’ve had a deep pullback, which is exactly the pullback I’ve been talking about in my previous videos 📉📊. Keep in mind, we’re at a key timing window — it’s the end of the week, end of the month, and end of the year 🕯️📆. During these periods, it’s very common to see long candle wicks, where price reaches higher levels and then pulls back into the close 🔄⚠️. With New Year’s Eve approaching, I won’t be actively trading ❌📉. Liquidity is thin and conditions can be unreliable. That said, I’m still closely watching the markets 👀📈 and paying attention to how price behaves heading into the new year. Gold is currently pulling back, and this is a deep retracement — and yes, it could pull back even further 🧲📉. As we close out the year and roll into the new one, I expect to see a liquidity run as the new year opens 🚀💧, which could lead to one more deeper pullback. After that, I’ll be looking for structure to form and a clean trend to set up 📈🧠. Patience is key here — let the market show its hand. ⚠️ Not financial advice. Always manage risk and trade responsibly.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by fxtraderanthony
Gold crashes 5%! Dead cat bounce or buy-the-dip opportunity?Gold has taken a brutal hit, plunging over 5% from the $4,550 highs down to $4,300 as profit-taking slams the market in thin holiday trade. We are now seeing a bounce toward $4,400, but the big question is: is this just a dead cat bounce before a drop to $4,150? In this video, we analyse the sharp reversal driven by year-end profit-taking and thin liquidity after an extraordinary ~70% rally in 2025. We then map out the critical Fibonacci retracement zones that will determine whether we see a V-shaped recovery or another leg lower. Key drivers Profit-taking & thin liquidity : The 5% drop was fuelled by a lack of buyers to absorb heavy selling in a thin, pre-New Year market. This is classic risk-off behaviour after an extended run. ​Dead-cat-bounce risk : Bounces to the 38.2% ($4,400) or 50% ($4,430) Fibonacci levels are typical after violent drops. If price rejects here, the technical structure favours another leg down. ​Downside targets : A measured move extension from a rejection at $4,400 points to a target around $4,150, which aligns with the 100% Fibonacci extension and previous support zones. ​RSI reset : The 4-hour RSI has swung from overbought to oversold in one go. A bounce to the 50-60 level on the RSI would likely reset momentum for the next wave of selling. Trade plan Bearish continuation : Sell the rally into $4,400–$4,430, targeting $4,170–$4,180 with a stop above $4,500. Bullish reversal : Watch for hidden bullish divergence on the RSI or a break above the 61.8% retracement ($4,460) to invalidate the immediate bearish bias. Are you selling this bounce or waiting for the bottom? Share your plan in the comments, and happy New Year to all traders! See you in 2026. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ThinkMarkets
1
XAUUSD (GOLD) – 1-Day Timeframe Tradertilki Swing AnalysisMy friends, greetings, I have prepared a swing analysis for XAUUSD-Gold on the 1-day timeframe and would like to share it with you. Currently, my best buy entry point in this swing analysis is at the 4224.00 level. When price reaches this level, I will open a buy position. My targets: TP1: 4307.00 TP2: 4485.00 TP3: 4712.00 My stop level will be at 3979.00. 📊 Risk reward ratio: 2,00 This is not a scalping analysis, but a long-term daily swing analysis. While scalping signals may hit targets within the same day, swing analysis targets can take longer to reach. I wanted to explain this clearly for friends who may not know. My friends, I share these analyses thanks to each like I receive from you. Your likes increase my motivation and encourage me to support you in this way.✨ Thank you to all my friends who support me with their likes.❤️ Respect and love. 🙏
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by TraderTilki
43
Investment Logic: Why Gold Leads This Market CycleInvestment Logic Explained: Metals as the Preferred Asset in This Cycle The performance gap shown in the table is not accidental. It reflects a clear capital rotation driven by macroeconomic realities in 2025. While equities and Bitcoin struggled to generate real returns, precious metals led by gold emerged as the dominant beneficiaries of this cycle. This shift is rooted in monetary policy, geopolitical risk, and the market’s renewed focus on capital preservation rather than speculation. Gold: The Core Beneficiary of the 2025 Macro Environment Gold’s +67.3% appreciation this year is a direct response to persistent global uncertainty and a structural shift in monetary expectations. Central banks maintained a cautious stance as inflation remained sticky, while real yields compressed amid expectations of policy easing into 2026. In this environment, gold regained its role as the primary store of value offering protection against currency debasement, sovereign risk, and declining confidence in fiat systems. Importantly, gold’s rise was not driven by hype or leverage. It was supported by sustained institutional demand, central bank accumulation, and a steady increase in long-term holdings. This is the hallmark of a healthy, macro driven trend rather than a speculative rally. Silver and Platinum: Beta Plays on the Same Thesis Silver and platinum significantly outperformed gold, but their gains should be viewed as extensions of the same macro logic. As confidence in hard assets strengthened, capital flowed into metals with tighter supply dynamics and industrial demand exposure. These moves typically follow gold’s lead in the later stages of a precious metals cycle amplifying returns but also volatility. For professional traders, gold remains the anchor. Silver and platinum offer upside asymmetry, but gold defines the directional bias of the entire metals complex. Why Equities and Bitcoin Lagged The S&P’s modest +17.7% gain underscores a year dominated by valuation compression rather than expansion. Elevated rates, earnings uncertainty, and geopolitical risk limited upside. Bitcoin’s −9.3% decline further highlights the difference between speculative assets and defensive capital. As liquidity tightened and risk appetite normalized, capital favored assets with intrinsic value and macro credibility areas where gold excels and Bitcoin currently does not. Professional Takeaway: This Is a Capital Preservation Cycle This cycle is not about chasing exponential upside. It is about protecting purchasing power, managing risk, and aligning with macro flows. Gold sits at the center of this framework. Its performance reflects disciplined capital allocation by institutions, not retail enthusiasm. Until global monetary stability is restored and real yields turn decisively positive, gold is likely to remain a preferred asset. For traders, the message is clear: follow structure, follow liquidity, and respect macro regimes. In 2025, gold was not just a trade it was the benchmark for intelligent capital positioning.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by RexTraderGOLD
1
GOLD H4 | Potential Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has bounced off our buy entry level at 4,343.11, whichis a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Our stop loss is set at 4,265.18, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit is set at 4,446.51, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (
FX:XAUUSDLong
by FXCM
1
GOLD (XAU/USD) HIGH-PROBABILITY ZONES There is a very strong buy area in Gold. As soon as the market opens, we can expect a liquidity sweep, after which a solid buy plan can be executed. If you study your chart properly and wait for confirmation, the market can easily deliver 400–500 pips of profit. 📍 Buying Area: 4309 – 4322 📍 Selling Area: 4534 – 4549 Trade with patience, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk wisely. 💰📈 #XAUUSD #GoldTrading #ForexMarket #LiquiditySweep #SmartMoneyConcepts #PriceAction #TradingSetup #RiskManagement #Pips #DayTrading
FX:XAUUSDLong
by FreeForex-pk
Gold (XAUUSD) Intraday OutlookGold (XAUUSD) Intraday Outlook – Bearish Retracement Within Key Demand Zone Gold is currently trading inside a critical H1 demand zone after a sharp impulsive sell-off from the recent highs. The market structure has clearly shifted from bullish continuation to corrective distribution, and price is now reacting to a former breakout base that previously acted as support during the last bullish leg. Market Structure & Price Action On the H1 timeframe, Gold formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, followed by multiple CHoCH signals near the top, indicating exhaustion. The rejection from the weak high confirms that buyers failed to sustain momentum, leading to a clean bearish displacement back into value. The current consolidation is corrective in nature rather than impulsive, suggesting this move is likely a bearish pullback before continuation, not a trend reversal yet. Key Support & Resistance Levels Immediate Resistance: 4,385 – 4,405 Previous intraday supply and corrective high. Strong reaction zone for sellers. Major Resistance: 4,520 – 4,550 Weak high liquidity zone. Only a strong bullish reclaim above this area would invalidate the bearish intraday bias. Current Support Zone: 4,325 – 4,360 H1 demand zone where price is currently reacting. Next Strong Support (Target): 4,260 – 4,285 Strong low liquidity pool and higher-timeframe demand. Fibonacci Confluence The current pullback aligns closely with the 61.8%–70.5% Fibonacci retracement of the last bullish impulse, reinforcing the idea that this is a sell-side reaction zone, not a long-term accumulation area. EMA & RSI Context Price remains below the short-term EMA cluster, showing bearish intraday pressure. RSI failed to regain bullish momentum and remains capped below the mid-level, confirming weak buying strength and favoring continuation to the downside. Trading Scenarios Primary Bias – Bearish Continuation Look for bearish rejection or lower-timeframe CHoCH inside 4,380 – 4,405 Targets: TP1: 4,325 TP2: 4,285 TP3: 4,260 (strong low) Alternative Scenario – Bullish Reclaim A sustained break and hold above 4,405 with strong bullish candles would open the door for a deeper recovery toward 4,450+ Without volume and structure shift, this scenario remains lower probability. Conclusion Gold is currently trading in a corrective range within a broader bearish intraday structure. As long as price remains below the key resistance zone, the probability favors a deeper pullback toward the strong low liquidity area. Patience is critical in this market, and waiting for clear confirmation at key levels will offer the best risk-to-reward opportunities. If you find this analysis useful, remember to save it and follow for more structured market insights and daily Gold strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
2
Stop!Loss|Market View: EURUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the EURUSD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 1.17949 💰TP: 1.19024 ⛔️SL: 1.17435 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: The euro is expected to continue rising later this year. We may see the biggest move next year, especially at the beginning. The price is testing resistance near 1.18000 for the third time, and the accumulation of volume will only add to the potential context for an upward breakout. The upside target is seen near 1.19000. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅
Long
by StopLoss222
1
GBP/USD | Retesting, retesting, retesting! (READ THE CAPTION)In the 4H of GBPUSD, we can see that it was rejected by Supply Zone, but after hitting the NWOG (New Week Opening Gap), it is currently being traded at 1.34850. I expect it to retest the Supply Zone, should it go through, it can go up to the low of the FVG at 1.35633, then we shall wait and see how it reacts to the level. Next targets for GBPUSD: 1.3489, 1.3512, 1.3534 and 1.3557 *First target has already been reached*
by AmirAliTrading
3
GOLD ANALYSIS 12/30/2025Yesterday, gold rose to 4,550 in the early Asian session and then crashed sharply by 250 points. I had already warned about this drop in my early-day analysis. The market in the last days of the year has extremely thin liquidity. Even after a 240-point drop, there was still no buying pressure. During this period, you should look for buying opportunities toward a new ATH. Buy on dips. If 4,309 is broken, then it’s better to rest early. 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4412 – 4410 • SL: 4416 • TP1: 4404 • TP2: 4398 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 4308 – 4310 • SL: 4304 • TP1: 4316 • TP2: 4322
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Signals_100pips
1
Bullish bounce off?Silver (XAG/USD) has bounced off the pivot, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 70.79 1st Support: 68.17 1st Resistance: 80.70 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party
ICMARKETS:XAGUSDLong
by IC Markets
XAUUAD READY FOR PULLBACK (READ CAPTION)Hi traders what do you think about gold Gold (XAUUSD) is currently forming a sell retest setup, where price is retracing upward into key resistance zones before a potential bearish continuation. This structure supports a sell-on-retest strategy. 🔹 Resistance Zone: 4527–4531 This is the primary sell zone where price is expected to face rejection. If the market retests this zone and shows bearish price action (rejection wicks or bearish candles), it confirms seller dominance. 🔹 Second Resistance: 4555 This level represents the upper resistance and invalidation zone. A strong rejection from 4555 would further strengthen the bearish outlook, while a sustained break above it may weaken the sell setup. 🔹 Support: 4496 This is the first downside target where price may pause or form a minor bounce. A confirmed break below 4496 signals continuation of bearish momentum. 🔹 Demand Zone: 4457 This is the main downside target and demand area. If price breaks below 4496, Gold is likely to move toward 4457, where buyers may step in for a reaction or short-term consolidation. 📉 Market Outlook (Retest Logic) Retracement into 4527–4531 → Sell opportunity Rejection from resistance → Confirms bearish continuation Break below 4496 → Opens path toward 4457 demand zone Demand zone reaction will determine next move The overall structure favors a bearish retest → continuation setup, unless price breaks and holds above 4555 please don't forget to like comment and follow thank you
TVC:GOLDShort
by fx_hunter99
Is gold undergoing a technical correction or signaling a declineThe OANDA:XAUUSD market just experienced a shock at the most sensitive time of the year. After reaching a historical peak around $4,550/ounce, the spot gold price unexpectedly fell 4.4% in a single session, closing around $4,332. This move was not isolated: silver, platinum, and palladium all plummeted sharply, marking a widespread correction across the entire group of precious metals. The question is not "why did gold fall," but whether this is just year-end profit-taking, or the beginning of a deeper revaluation period? A systemic correction, not an isolated accident. The most notable aspect of the recent decline lies in its synchronicity. • Silver fell nearly 9%, after failing to hold above $80/ounce. • Platinum lost more than 14%. • Palladium fell over 15%, dropping from its 3-year high. This is a familiar pattern of forced profit-taking after a period of excessively rapid growth, especially in the context of weakened market liquidity due to the holidays. Once prices have climbed to extreme levels, even a small psychological shift is enough to trigger a widespread wave of selling. From a market structure perspective, precious metals entered the final week of the year in a clearly overbought state, with highly concentrated speculative capital and large accumulated buying positions. This decline is therefore more of a "pressure relief" than a trend reversal. 2025: A year that will "make history" for OANDA:XAUUSD Despite sharp short-term corrections, the long-term outlook for gold in 2025 remains historically significant. To date, gold prices have risen more than 65% this year, the strongest increase since the late 1970s. The core drivers remain unchanged: • Prolonged global economic instability, • A cyclical weakening of the dollar, • Continued net gold purchases by central banks, • Expectations of a Fed shift to monetary easing. Gold is not rising due to euphoria, but rather because its safe-haven role is continuously activated in an uncertain world. Silver! The growth star, but also the biggest risk factor. If gold is the pillar of stability, then silver is the most volatile variable of 2025. A nearly 150% increase makes silver the highest-performing metal in the group, but also the most vulnerable when capital flows reverse. Unlike gold, silver has two parallel natures: • Safe-haven assets, • Essential industrial raw materials (solar energy, electronics, AI). The shortage of physical supply, particularly in Asia and key reserves, has driven silver prices far ahead of gold's rise. However, with valuations having risen so rapidly, sharp corrections are inevitable. Geopolitics returns to the spotlight: Russia–Ukraine and the Middle East continue to “anchor risks” Recent geopolitical developments show that risks have not disappeared, despite positive diplomatic statements. The Russia-Ukraine negotiations were touted as "near completion," but were immediately overshadowed by accusations of drone attacks, followed by tough statements from Moscow. Simultaneously, tensions in the Middle East remain high, with strong statements from Washington regarding Iran and military actions in Venezuela. These factors are not enough to push gold prices sharply higher, but they are sufficient to limit the risk of a deep collapse. The Fed, US politics, and major variables of 2026 One point of particular interest to the market is the minutes of the Fed's December meeting, along with increasingly harsh statements from President Donald Trump regarding the role and competence of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump's hints at announcing a new Fed chairman in the near future add another layer of policy uncertainty, especially given that inflation has not yet returned to safe levels but growth is slowing. For gold, monetary policy uncertainty is always a medium-term catalyst. Correction does not change the trend. The 4.4% drop in gold is a clear reminder that the market doesn't follow a straight line. But considering the overall context: • Unresolved geopolitical instability, • Gradually easing global monetary policy, • Central banks continue to diversify away from the Dollar, The current correction is more technical and cyclical than a long-term trend reversal. With 2026 ahead, gold is unlikely to continue its "straightforward" rise as it did in 2025, but its pivotal role in a defensive portfolio remains intact. The market is entering a more selective, differentiated, and disciplined phase, where opportunities lie not at the peak of euphoria, but in sufficiently deep and calm corrections. Technical analysis and suggestions OANDA:XAUUSD Technical Analysis The medium-term uptrend remains intact as the price moves within an upward price channel. After a strong surge, gold corrected downwards from the 0.618 Fibonacci extension zone, but quickly received clear support at the EMA21, indicating that buyers still control the trend structure. Currently, the price is consolidating just above the dynamic support zone, with the RSI remaining above the neutral level, reflecting a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. Prioritize a buy-the-dip strategy, avoiding chasing prices while the uptrend remains dominant. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4438 - 4436⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4442 →Take Profit 1 4430 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4424 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4266 - 4268⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4262 →Take Profit 1 4274 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4280
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD H4 | Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has bounced off our buy entry level at 4,314.95, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our stop loss is set at 4,266.20, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Our take-profit is set at 4,418.33, which corresponds to a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by FXCM
Gold Just Absorbed a Sharp Sell-Off — This Is a PullbackGOLD (XAUUSD) — 1H Market Analysis Gold remains firmly within a primary bullish structure , despite the recent aggressive bearish candle. The current price action is best interpreted as a technical pullback into dynamic support , not a breakdown. The market is resetting momentum after a strong impulsive leg higher. 1) Market Structure: Bullish Trend Still Intact The broader structure continues to show: - Higher highs and higher lows on the intraday trend - Price still trading above the 89 EMA, which is acting as a medium-term trend support - The recent sell-off failed to break the last structural higher low This confirms that buyers remain in control, and the decline is corrective rather than impulsive. 2) Key Technical Levels (Execution Zones) Support Zone 4,470 – 4,450 Confluence of: - EMA 89 (~4,476) - Prior breakout structure The long lower wick shows strong buy-side absorption at this level. If this zone holds, the bullish trend remains valid. Resistance & Upside Targets - Target 1: 4,505 – 4,520 First reaction zone after the bounce - Target 2: 4,525 – 4,550 Previous consolidation high - Target 3: 4,580 – 4,600 Measured move extension + psychological round number High probability zone for partial profit-taking 3) Momentum & Moving Averages - EMA 34 has been briefly lost but price is attempting to reclaim it - EMA 89 remains unbroken → trend bias stays bullish - Momentum reset is healthy after the prior impulsive rally In strong trends, price often pulls back to EMA 89 before expanding again. 4) Macro Context: Why Gold Is Still Supported - Gold strength is not random it is backed by macro tailwinds: - U.S. Dollar weakness continues to support precious metals - Expectations of future rate cuts keep real yields under pressure - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty sustains safe-haven demand - Central bank gold accumulation remains structurally supportive These factors limit downside risk and favor dip-buying behavior rather than trend reversal selling. 5) Scenarios Going Forward Bullish Continuation (Primary Scenario) Price holds above 4,450 Reclaims 4,500 Extension toward 4,550 → 4,600 Bearish Invalid Scenario Clean breakdown and acceptance below 4,450 Would expose 4,420 – 4,400 Only then would the bullish structure be compromised Final Assessment This move is a controlled pullback within a strong uptrend, not a bearish signal. As long as price holds above the EMA 89 and structural support, the path of least resistance remains upward. Smart money buys pullbacks — not tops — and the current zone is exactly where trend continuation setups usually form.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
2
Gold Just Broke Its Rising ChannelGold (XAUUSD) – H1 Technical & Macro Analysis Gold has shifted from a bullish continuation structure into a clear distribution and breakdown phase . After trending higher inside a rising channel, price failed to sustain momentum near the upper boundary around 4,520–4,540 , forming lower highs and showing repeated rejection. This behavior signals that buying pressure has been absorbed and smart money has begun distributing positions rather than pushing price higher. From a technical structure standpoint, the critical signal was the clean break below the rising channel support near 4,480–4,460. This breakdown invalidates the bullish channel and confirms a short-term trend reversal. The subsequent pullback attempts were weak and corrective, indicating that sellers are now in control. As long as price remains below 4,500, the market structure favors downside continuation rather than a bullish recovery. Key levels to monitor: Broken support /new resistance: 4,480–4,500 Intermediate support: ~4,420 Major downside target: 4,340–4,300 (previous demand & liquidity zone) On the macro side, gold is currently pressured by stabilizing US yields and a resilient US dollar , which reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold. Additionally, the absence of immediate geopolitical escalation or aggressive dovish signals from the Federal Reserve has cooled safe-haven demand. With markets pricing a more gradual rate-cut path, gold is losing short-term momentum despite its longer-term bullish narrative. Conclusion: Gold has transitioned from an uptrend into a bearish corrective phase on the H1 timeframe. Any bounce toward 4,480–4,500 is technically a sell-the-rally opportunity, not a trend reversal, unless price reclaims and holds above the broken channel. Until then, the probability favors continued downside toward 4,420 and potentially 4,300 , where stronger demand may re-emerge.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Gold_Dominator
Gold Breaks Structure at a Critical Channel LevelGold is showing clear signs of trend exhaustion after a strong impulsive rally that has been respecting an ascending price channel for several sessions. Price has now broken below the lower boundary of this channel, a technical signal that bullish momentum is weakening and that the market is transitioning from markup to distribution/correction. From a technical standpoint, the repeated failures near the upper channel resistance around 4,550–4,570 formed a series of lower highs, indicating seller absorption at premium prices. The decisive move below the channel support near 4,480 confirms a loss of bullish structure. As long as price remains below this broken support, the channel acts as new resistance, and short-term rallies are likely to be corrective rather than trend-continuing. If downside momentum sustains, the next key support zone lies around 4,420–4,400 , followed by a deeper liquidity area near 4,350–4,320, where previous demand and structural lows are concentrated. A brief pullback toward 4,480–4,500 would be technically normal, but failure to reclaim the channel would reinforce a bearish continuation scenario. On the macro side, gold is reacting to a combination of year-end positioning, declining holiday liquidity, and shifting interest rate expectations. While expectations of Fed easing in 2026 remain supportive for gold in the medium term, the short-term environment is dominated by profit-taking and risk rebalancing after an extended rally. A firmer U.S. dollar and stabilization in Treasury yields have also reduced the immediate safe-haven bid. Conclusion: Gold has lost its bullish channel structure, shifting the bias to short-term bearish/corrective. As long as price stays below 4,480, downside toward 4,420 → 4,350 remains the higher-probability path. A recovery back inside the channel would be required to invalidate this bearish setup. Until then, traders should treat rebounds as selling opportunities, not trend continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mathew_TraderGold